Frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations with Israel - the last, fruitless talks broke down in April - and the failure of his New Year’s Eve statehood bid at the UN, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is following through on a long-promised plan to join the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The move, to be formalised in the next two to three months, opens the way for war crimes charges to be brought against Israel, whether relating to last summer’s conflict in Gaza or the impact of Israel’s 47-year-long occupation of Palestinian territory.
But the biggest immediate hurdle for Abbas is getting the ICC, set up in The Hague 12 years ago, to take on any case it brings. Joining the court is one thing, but convincing the chief prosecutor that you have a winnable set of evidence is another.
Since its inception, the court has formally opened just nine investigations, all of them relating to genocide, war crimes or crimes against humanity committed in Africa.
A shift of focus to the Middle East would be welcomed by those who accuse the court of a post-colonial, Western bias, but it’s no guarantee of success after the failure of several high-profile cases and only two convictions.
Israel has already responded to the move by saying it will withhold $120mn of tax and customs receipts it collects on behalf of the Palestinians each month. Other more damaging steps, such as further settlement expansion and tighter controls on Palestinian movement and access, could follow.
In another major challenge for Abbas, Hamas said yesterday it was “totally opposed” to his plans to re-submit to the UN Security Council a resolution on ending Israel’s occupation which failed last week.
On January 2, the Palestinian leadership decided to refile a draft resolution setting a deadline for reaching a final peace deal and ending the occupation. The draft had failed to pass a vote in the Security Council on December 30.
Abbas’s spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina has said the resolution will be presented again “soon”, without saying exactly when.
The vote saw Security Council heavyweights China, France and Russia among eight countries who gave their support, while the United States and Australia voted against.
Five other countries, including Britain, abstained - among them Nigeria which had been expected to vote in favour but changed its stance at the last minute.
The failure to win the nine “yes” votes necessary for the resolution to be adopted spared Washington from having to wield its veto.
However, on January 1 the makeup of the 15-member council changed with the addition of five new non-permanent members - Angola, Malaysia, New Zealand, Spain and Venezuela - some of which are perceived as having a more pro-Palestinian stance.
But for any new initiative to succeed, Palestinian reconciliation is vital. Arab attempts to bring the Palestinian groups together assume much importance in this context.
