By Ravi Velloor /New Delhi
Ever since Rahul Gandhi entered the Indian Parliament in May 2004, the speculation has been about not if, but when, he will ascend to the prime minister’s chair once occupied by his father Rajiv, grandmother Indira Gandhi and great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru.
After he was re-elected for a second term earlier this year, most people knew the transition had drawn closer. Yet Gandhi himself seemed to be in no hurry, declining a Cabinet position to focus on party work.
Now, some influential people in the Indian capital think they may have a date for Gandhi to take charge of the government: July 2012.
“President Pratibha Patil will finish her term and it will be the right moment for Congress to elevate Manmohan Singh as her replacement,” says a person who is in the inner circle of Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the senior-most member of Singh’s Cabinet.
“The nation will not accept anything less for Singh and the party would not like to suggest that he had been shoved aside. Besides, it helps Congress to present a fresh set of faces to the electorate when it goes to the polls in 2014.”
Congress, led by Gandhi’s mother Sonia Gandhi, swept to a stunning electoral victory in this year’s parliamentary polls, ahead of most calculations and successfully beating back the weariness that voters tend to display towards incumbents.
It also made major gains in the heartland state of Uttar Pradesh and retained control in southern India’s biggest state, Andhra Pradesh. What is more, it had clean sweeps in New Delhi and Mumbai, part of a general trend where urban voters seem to have swung away from the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Gandhi, who addressed more than 200 campaign meetings, got much of the credit for the party’s strong showing.
That was the case especially in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress decided to go it alone after disagreements with alliance partners over distributing tickets.
Still, few were in doubt that Singh’s clean image and his scholarly personality helped the party hugely across the nation.
Minority voters also seemed to be comfortable with him.
Large sections of India’s 140mn-strong Muslim community were seen to have voted for Congress this time after looking to alternative parties since 1992, when a Hindu mob razed a 16th century mosque in Uttar Pradesh.
At the time, Singh’s political mentor, the late Narasimha Rao, was in power in New Delhi and he himself was finance minister.
What is more, Singh survived a hugely complicated heart surgery in February.
The re-do bypass, as it was called, kept people glued to their television sets as the entire nation waited for confirmation that their ageing leader was safe.
While the increased blood flow into his heart has rejuvenated Singh, he is 77 now. By the time Patil ends her presidential term, he would be on the verge of turning 80 years old.
Gandhi, on the other hand, would have just turned 43, older than his late father was when he became prime minister upon the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
To be sure, much could change between now and the summer of 2012. Also, despite the increased speculation, it must be noted that Sonia Gandhi and her two children are a very tight bunch, not prone to revealing their minds publicly.
However, there is no question that any fresh leader would gain immensely from having Singh across the road in the presidential palace, available for counsel at a moment’s notice.
While Indian presidents are eligible for a second term, Patil is not expected to complain about not getting an extension, Congress party people say. Patil owes her rise to the presidency to her unflinching loyalty to the Gandhi family.
Indeed, it was she who arrived to take charge of the household when the Gandhis were in shock over Indira Gandhi’s assassination in October 1984.
Besides, Congress has moved to accommodate her in other ways.This month, her son, Rajendra Shekhawat, entered the Maharashtra State Assembly on a Congress ticket. — ANN/DPA
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