Many top companies cashing in on legal cannabis are considering a bet on Mexico after a Supreme Court decision raised hopes for a legalisation of medical and recreational marijuana in a country reeling from years of gruesome drug violence.
From medical marijuana growers to pot private equity firms, many weed entrepreneurs see Mexico as a tempting new business opportunity even though cannabis is still illegal and the market is currently controlled by ruthless drug cartels.
“Me personally, I’m not afraid to go to Mexico,” said Daniel Sparks, head of government affairs at BioTrackTHC, a US-based provider of marijuana supply-chain software.
He said that just as mafia groups and bootleggers gave up on illicit moonshine after Prohibition ended in the US, Mexico’s drug gangs would have little interest in a legal marijuana market, especially if it lured in reputable pharmaceutical and tech firms.
“I am not so optimistic to think that a cannabis business in Mexico would not encounter opposition or violence from the cartels. However, their profit margins are being eroded daily, monthly and yearly by the continued expansion of medical and recreational marijuana programmes in more and more US states.”
Canada’s new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has promised to legalise the drug and a Supreme Court decision in November opened the door for Mexico to one day follow suit, prompting the ruling party to present a bill to regulate medical marijuana.
“It shows North America ... is moving in the same direction, and that’s more than just symbolic: it’s indicative of what will happen at a global scale,” said Brendan Kennedy, chief executive of pot private equity firm Privateer Holdings. “Mexico is an interesting investment opportunity.”
His firm calculates a legal medical and recreational cannabis market in Mexico could be worth $1.7bn a year.
Products that firms could offer range from marijuana plants for medical use and cannabis-based medicines to supply-chain software, allowing regulators to track suppliers and inventory, and pot-themed social media websites.
The US legal pot market was worth some $3.5bn in 2015, according to marijuana investment and research firm the ArcView Group. A federal US legalisation of marijuana would create a market worth $36.8bn in retail sales, it said.
The Supreme Court decision in Mexico only allows four plaintiffs who brought the case to grow and smoke their own marijuana.
Polls show most Mexicans oppose outright legalisation, including President Enrique Pena Nieto, although he has called for a national debate on the matter.
There is more support for medical marijuana regulation, and lawmakers say the bill submitted by Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is likely to pass in some form.
With a population of 120mn people, Mexico could provide a sizeable market for marijuana investors. Still, the seven cannabis companies, legalisation advocates and lawmakers consulted for this article stressed any opening would take time.
“It’s likely a market that is of some interest to the company, but not immediate interest” said Stephen Schultz, spokesman for Britain’s GW Pharmaceuticals, which produces Sativex, a cannabis-derived medicine.
Uruguay blazed a trail in 2013 by becoming the first country to allow the commercial cultivation and distribution of weed. But it has struggled to roll out the project and legal marijuana won’t be available on pharmacy shelves until mid-2016, about 18 months later than planned.
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