North and South Korea’s perennially volatile relations seem headed for a new and potentially dangerous low, with all official lines of communication cut off and a host of tension-raising issues on the near horizon.
The two rivals, who have remained technically at war over the past six decades, have faced and weathered numerous crises in the past, but the current situation feels particularly grim in the wake of the North’s recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch.
Any hope of compromise or dialogue seems to have been indefinitely shelved, with a leader in Pyongyang confirming an unwavering commitment to nuclear weapons development, and a counterpart in Seoul determined to react firmly to any North Korean provocation.
The new mood on the divided peninsula played out this week in the effective termination of the sole remaining North-South co-operation project - the Kaesong joint industrial zone lying 10km over the border in North Korea.
Despite its obvious vulnerabilities, Kaesong had taken on a talismanic image by riding out pretty much every inter-Korean crisis thrown up since it opened for business in 2004.
But on Wednesday, Seoul announced it was suspending all operations of the 124 South Korean companies in Kaesong, and yesterday, Pyongyang responded by expelling all the firms’ managers and freezing their factories’ assets.
The North placed the complex under military control, while the South cut off all power and water supplies.
Most Korean observers see a dead end for Kaesong now.
Kaesong was born out of the “sunshine” reconciliation policy of the late 1990s.
One of the roles initially envisaged by Seoul was of Kaesong as a beachhead for market reforms in North Korea that would spread from the complex and expose tens of thousands to the outside world’s way of doing business.
Although that vision never materialised, some analysts still mourned its demise for closing a small but crucial open door on the world’s most heavily-militarised border.
The space for communication between Seoul and Pyongyang shrank further on Thursday, when the North announced it was cutting the last two remaining communication hotlines with the South.
The hotlines themselves have never been used for conversational diplomacy, but they were key to setting up meetings where such discussions could take place.
The severing of all contacts comes ahead of a period when crisis-control talks could be most needed.
The vote by the US House of Representatives yesterday to tighten sanctions on North Korea in the wake of its nuclear and missile tests will upset the reclusive regime in the North further.
The lower chamber of Congress approved the legislation 408-2 after the upper Senate unanimously passed it a few days ago. The measure will now be sent to US President Barack Obama.
