A win in Karnataka, the first of three key states to vote this year ahead of a 2019 general election, would give Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party a foothold in the south and bolster his chances of a second term.
The BJP could more than double its tally to 89 seats in the 224-seat assembly in May’s state election, but fall two seats short of the Congress tally, according to the opinion poll by television station Times Now and VotersMood Research aired late on Monday.
The Janata Dal (Secular), together with smaller ally the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), is likely to win 40 seats and emerge as the kingmaker in an assembly that needs 113 seats for a majority, the poll showed.
Another opinion poll conducted for the India Today news channel this month also predicted that both the Congress and BJP, on their own, would fall short of a majority.
The Janata Dal is confident of forming its own government with the BSP and would not support the BJP or Congress, its spokesman Ramesh Babu said.
He denied that the party had a “secret pact” with the BJP, as some Congress leaders in the state have suggested.
A record number of 2,407 candidates have filed nominations for the elections, with a whopping 1,280 of them doing yesterday, the last date to enter the fray.
According to the Election Commission’s website, of the total nominees, 244 are from the ruling Congress, 258 from the BJP, 208 from the Janata Dal-Secular, 1,084 are Independents and 613 from regional parties and fringe outfits.
Among those who filed nominations yesterday are Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and BJP’s Lok Sabha member B Sreeramulu from Badami in Bagalkot district.
Siddaramaiah also filed nomination on April 20 from Chamundeshwari in Mysuru and Sreeramulu from Molakramuru from Chitradurga district.
P Ravikumar Ganiga of the Congress filed nomination from Mandya after the party’s sitting legislator and rebel star Ambareesh declined to contest.
The BJP is fielding T Basavaraju from Varuna constituency in Mysuru after the party’s chief ministerial candidate B SYeddyurappa said on Monday that his second son Vijayendra would not contest from the seat.
Siddaramaiah has fielded his eldest son Yatheendra this time as the Congress candidate from Varuna.
Top BJP and Congress leaders have campaigned extensively ahead of the election in Karnataka.
Election results will be declared on May 15.
“Karnataka is significant for the BJP because it needs to outperform in the south and the east of the country to make up for expected losses in the north,” said Amitabh Dubey, a political analyst with consultancy TS Lombard.
“In the general election they are unlikely to repeat the same result as the last time in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat.”
Karnataka is the only south Indian state that the BJP has ruled for a full five-year term on its own, following a surprise victory in 2008.
Elsewhere, however, the BJP has been riding high on Modi’s popularity, despite concerns about a lack of jobs.
The party or its partners now rule 21 of India’s 29 states, up from just seven when Modi took office in 2014.
