Chicago’s shaky pension funds face new hit from looming downturn

As 2022 unfolded, Chicago’s long-troubled pension funds faced a new shortfall: A delay in property tax receipts left the system without enough money to pay the city’s retirees.Pension managers contended with the difficult decision of whether to sell off pension assets to raise cash quickly. Instead, they got an advance from Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration to plug the gap. In the end, Chicago funnelled in at least $512mn that was earmarked for payments later in the year and early 2023.The payout was the largest advance ever in one year in Chicago, a sign of just how fragile the pension system is, especially at a time when markets are headed for their worst annual return since 2008. Looking ahead, the third-most populous US city’s pensions could take an even deeper hit in 2023 if the market rout continues to erode returns and the looming recession economists are warning of hurts Chicago’s revenue."Downturns are never good, and systems like Chicago don’t have much wiggle room,” said Jean-Pierre Aubry, director of state and local research at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. "Other pension funds will weather it. Chicago may have to react more aggressively and more quickly.”How Chicago arrived at this point is easy to understand and hard to fix. Put simply, it fell behind on contributions for its retirees — including cops, firefighters, labourers and other municipal employees — year after year as officials shortchanged payments. Now, the unfunded liability for Chicago’s four pension systems is $33.7bn, more than twice the size of the city’s annual budget.Chicago’s pensions have enough assets to cover only about 25% of what they owe, while on average funding ratios for US state and local pensions hover around 70%, according to research at Boston College.These underfunded pensions are weighing on the city’s ability to pay for much-needed services. About $1 of every $5 in Chicago’s budget goes toward pensions, a challenge in a city where revenue often falls short of expenditures, 17% of the population lives in poverty and crime continues to rise — all factors that also could tip the scales on Lightfoot’s chances for re-election in February, when she could face as many as 10 mayoral candidates.The city has faced calls for more mental health clinics, increased funding to help the homeless and greater resources to reduce environmental hazards such as air pollution that have been reported to disproportionately hurt poor neighbourhoods.And the fact that markets are headed for their worst annual gains in 14 years has made 2022 a more challenging year for pension funds. US stocks are down 19%, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury is off 12%.All of this comes even as a key rating company recently lifted the city’s credit rating out of junk, praising Lightfoot’s efforts to increase and accelerate payments into the pension funds. But the problem continues to challenge the Chicago’s ability to pay for much-needed services.Now, the threat of a recession in 2023 raises questions about the city’s ability to provide advances — such as the half billion dollars given from September through November — because a slowdown could reduce tax revenue as economic activity slows. Chicago’s Purchasing Managers Index, a barometer for the region’s economic health, is already starting to send out recession warning signals. The index fell to 37, below expectations and at a level that historically has indicated an economy in recession.Already, rising inflation undercut one of Lightfoot’s proposals to fill the gap. The mayor persuaded the City Council in late 2020 to tie annual property tax increases to the consumer price index but for 2023 decided to forgo that bump up given the highest inflation in four decades. On top of that, the annual property tax bills that were expected roughly around August didn’t go out until early December. The months-long delay meant that one of the biggest sources of funding for the pension funds was stalled.After long failing to make enough contributions into the pensions, the city under former Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Lightfoot increased taxes on property and services such as water and sewer to ramp up pension contributions to the state-required 90% level in about four decades. The city’s annual contributions rose by $1bn over the past three years, and it’s trying to do more than the minimum by providing advances and paying an additional $242mn for pensions in the 2023 budget.The city’s residents have raised concerns about property tax increases that they don’t see reflected in services. Roughly 80% of the city’s property taxes go to pensions, and 10% pay for other debt. Still, the increased contributions led to the city’s first credit rating upgrades in a decade, pulling Chicago out of junk territory. But the future of its ratings, which affect the city’s cost of borrowing, could hinge on the health of those very retirement systems. Pensions remain a credit risk for Chicago and the unfunded portion is its most significant long-term liability, according to Moody’s Investors Service."When we save the pension funds, we save the city,” said Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Chicago’s treasurer, who oversees about $10bn in city assets.