General David H Petraeus (retd), partner at KKR and chairman at the KKR Global Institute, spoke on various issues at the third Qatar Economic Forum, Powered by Bloomberg, including the return of a multipolar world, China and the Ukraine conflict.
He sat down with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief, as part of a session four at the forum.
“The continued rise of China and then the friction that has evolved between the West and China is the single biggest issue that has led to this, the resurgence of Russia and the brutal invasion of Ukraine, all these are factors that have returned us to an era of great power rivalry," he said.
“We think decoupling with China is not possible. In fact, last year the US and China had the greatest trade that they have ever had. China is the number three trading partner for the US behind our two continental US, Mexico and Canada trade agreements, and we are the largest trading partner for China. Selective decoupling is taking place, however, de-risking is what the EU called it.”
Regarding Taiwan, he said: "I think it is still unlikely. We get a vote, if you will, we, the West collectively, the US. Deterrence is what we are seeking. And deterrence is founded on two elements. A potential adversary's assessment of your capabilities on the one hand, and your willingness to employ them on the other. It's incumbent on us, and our allies and partners together, to make sure we are transforming our capabilities, hardening, improving resilience in the Indo-Pacific region. And also making sure there aren't doubts about our willingness to deploy our capabilities we have without trying to be provocative. The desire is to prevent it, to deter it."
Referring to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, General Petraeus said: "Keep in mind that the Russians have suffered losses across the board since the beginning, except for the modest gains they have made in the south. Essentially, they have seized a city that they themselves have destroyed. The Ukrainians are conducting highly impressive, combined arms operations. So, it is not the case at all that they cannot win. Now, I am not saying that they will retake all of it this year, let alone Crimea, but I believe it can position them in a way that, suddenly, I hope (Vladimir) Putin realises that Russia is not going to endure more suffering than the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans. That's the key factor here."
He continued, “I think that the China-Russia relationship is certainly not a partnership without limits, we have seen very distinct limits. I really think China, President Xi (Jinping), doesn’t see Russia as an equal.
"When President Xi visited Moscow for his summit with Putin, he did not get what he wanted. At its core, it is a transactional relationship. It is not a relationship between two equals."
