Qatar's GDP estimated to reach $217bn this year and $271bn in 2027: FocusEconomics

Qatar's GDP is estimated to reach $217bn this year and $271bn in 2027, FocusEconomics said in its latest research.
Next year, the country’s GDP will scale up to $222bn, $234bn in 2025 and $253bn (2026).
GDP per capita has been estimated to reach $82,900 this year, $85,754 (2024), $91048 (2025), $99,794 (2026) and $107,791 (2027), FocusEconomics said.
The researcher estimates Qatar’s real GDP growth at 2.6% this year, 2.5% (2024), 3.7% (2025), 3.8% (2026) and 5% (2027).
Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated at 7% this year, 5.6% (2024), 4.9% (2025), 6.2% (2026) and 6.3% (2027).
FocusEconomics estimates Qatar’s current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) at 18.7% this year, 16% (2024), 12.7% (2025), 14.3% (2026) and 14.9% (2027).
Current account balance has been estimated to total $40.5bn this year, $35.6bn (2024), $29.6bn (2025), $36.2bn (2026) and $40.3bn (2027).
Merchandise trade balance has been estimated at $78.7bn this year, $75.5bn (2024), $75.9bn (2025), $82.2bn (2026) and $87.9bn (2027).
According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s public debt as a percentage of GDP will be 43.9% this year, 40.5% (2024), 43% (2025), 40.5% (2026) and 37.8% (2027).
Unemployment (as a percentage of active population) will remain at a meagre 0.2% until 2027.
According to FocusEconomics, the economy clocked a multi-year high GDP growth rate of 8% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022, driven by the FIFA World Cup, although the energy sector also recorded robust growth.
“Turning to 2023, available data is positive,” FocusEconomics noted.
The non-oil private-sector PMI rose sharply from February, recording the strongest reading since last July in April amid accelerating demand for goods and services.
In addition, visitor arrivals in the first quarter (Q1) averaged over triple the level observed in Q1 last year and well above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a durable boost to tourism from last year’s hosting of the World Cup.
Moreover, energy output surged in annual terms in February–March. However, the end of the World Cup and higher interest rates have dampened the construction sector, with building permits declining year on year in Q1, FocusEconomics noted.
The researcher says economic activity will “slow” this year on softer building activity, interest rate hikes and flagging external demand.
That said, ongoing energy sector development—both in fossil fuels and renewables—and a burgeoning tourism industry will provide support.
Improved relations with Arab neighbours are an upside risk. FocusEconomics panellists see GDP expanding 2.6% in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.5% in 2024.
Inflation fell to 3.7% in April from 4% in March, on easing external price pressures and tighter monetary policy.
Qatar Central Bank hiked rates by 25 basis points in May, with the lending rate hitting 6%. On average in 2023, panellists see inflation moderating from last year as borrowing costs rise, the World-Cup-related demand surge ends and commodity prices recede. FocusEconomics panellists see consumer prices rising 2.9% on average in 2023, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 2.2% on average in 2024.