A deal for the world to transition away from fossil fuels was hailed as a historic achievement on Wednesday at the UN climate summit in Dubai, but there’s a good chance it won’t achieve its ultimate goal — holding global warming to 1.5C.
Scientists say that a global temperature rise beyond 1.5C above the preindustrial average will trigger catastrophic and irreversible impacts, from melting ice sheets to the collapse of ocean currents.
But year after year, that target slips further away — with the world’s planet-warming emissions still rising, and temperatures hitting new heights.
This year will be the hottest ever on record, with the global average for 2023 a sweltering 1.46C above preindustrial levels.
In terms of global warming, which is measured in terms of decades, the world has experienced nearly 1.2C (2.2F) of warming.
The deal made in Dubai, called the UAE Consensus, would see the world commit to transitioning away from “fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner...so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. But scientists said that, while the pact was unprecedented, it still wasn’t enough for that outcome to be realised.
“It’s a landmark result because it’s the first time we’ve said we’re going to reduce fossil fuel use,” said James Dyke, an earth systems scientist at the University of Exeter in Britain.
“But you can forget about 1.5C.”
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the main scientific body which informs the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, has said that limiting warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot would require rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Specifically, the world needs to cut its emissions from 2019 levels by as much as 43% in the next six years, 60% by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to prevent compounding impacts, such as thawing permafrost which releases long-trapped greenhouse gases, triggering even more warming.
The IPCC declined to comment on the outcome of COP28.
The world posted record high greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, rising 1.2% above 2021, according to the 2023 UN Emissions Gap Report.
If countries are to have even a 50-50 chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, they can emit only another 250bn metric tons or so of carbon dioxide. At current emissions levels, that will be met in just six years, according to an October 2023 study in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“This mandate is still not even close to what’s needed to accomplish the goals we agreed on in Paris in 2015,” said climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University.
This is true for high-emitting developed countries who also haven’t committed to greater support for developing countries in the energy transition, she said.
The UAE Consensus also calls on countries to accelerate new technologies, which could include “abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage” (CCUS).
This means the world could continue using coal, oil and gas, provided they can capture those emissions. Critics say the technology remains expensive and unproven at scale, and worry that it will now be used to justify continued drilling.
The COP28 talks also saw a raft of new voluntary commitments, ranging from tripling renewables to reining in methane emissions from oil and gas operations.
An assessment by the International Energy Agency found that, even if those results were fully delivered, it would only close about one-third of the emissions gap to limit warming to 1.5C. – Reuters