Qatar’s fiscal balance to GDP forecast at 5.9%; current account at 12.6% in 2024: Oxford Economics

Qatar’s fiscal balance as a percentage of the country’s GDP has been forecast at 5.9% this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.The researcher has forecast Qatar’s current account (as a percentage of its GDP) at 12.6% this year.Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast to grow 2.5% year-on-year, Oxford Economics noted.The country’s inflation has been forecast to fall to 2.2% this year from 2.9% last year.According to Oxford Economics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Saudi Arabia remained at 57.5 in December, indicating a strong expansion in non-oil activity.PMI is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing.Throughout 2023, the PMI indicated non-oil output increased every month, helped in part by an aggressive purchasing strategy by the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The fund spent $31.6bn in 2023, the most amount disbursed by any sovereign wealth fund worldwide as the government continued their push towards Vision 2030 goals.In the UAE, the PMI rose to 57.4, the second highest reading since June 2019. A resilient domestic market supported purchasing, sales, and new orders as cost pressures eased due to slowing purchase price inflation.The survey indicated that activity contracted in Qatar during December, with the PMI at 49.8, down from 51.5 in November. This was the first contraction since January 2023, when output adjusted following the World Cup, Oxford Economics noted.Following three months of relatively steady price rises, inflation in Turkey rose in December to 64.8% from 62% in November. Assuming the central bank (CBRT) remains steadfast in its fight to curb price pressures, we project inflation will fall below 40% by the end of 2024.But risks to Oxford Economics’ 2024 inflation estimate are skewed to the upside, given the likely fiscal loosening ahead of the local election.Elsewhere, inflation in Bahrain fell to -0.4% in November and Kuwait's remained steady at 3.8%.