Tourism rebound has significant impact on global economies

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.
The “positive” outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023.
Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year.
“There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally,” according to the World Economic Forum.
Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond.
As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.
Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice.
But staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labour to cope with high demand.
According to UNWTO, the evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveller confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.
The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year revealed that international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3bn international arrivals.
The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019.
Europe, the world’s most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.
Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: “Our latest data underscores tourism’s resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development.”