Intensifying heatwaves highlight dire climate crisis

Going by the excruciating heat waves experienced across the world, it is not difficult to believe the World Meteorological Organisation when it says there is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will eclipse 2023 to become the warmest on record. Climate change is fuelling more extreme temperature peaks - making heatwaves more common, more intense and longer-lasting. On average globally, a heatwave that would have occurred once in 10 years in the pre-industrial climate will now occur 2.8 times over 10 years, and it will be 1.2C warmer, according to an international team of scientists with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group.
Scientists say heatwaves will continue to intensify if the world continues to unleash climate-warming emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. If the world hits 2C of global warming, heatwaves would on average occur 5.6 times in 10 years and be 2.6C hotter, according to the WWA. Deadly heatwaves are scorching cities on four continents in a sign that climate change may again help to fuel record-breaking heat that could surpass last summer as the warmest in 2,000 years. Record temperatures in recent days are suspected to have caused hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths across Asia and Europe.
In 2023, we lived through the hottest year since recordkeeping began more than a century ago, and it was no anomaly. It’s part of a long-term trend: The last 10 years have been the 10 warmest on record, according to Nasa, with most of the Earth’s warming taking place over the last 40 years. Most forecasters are anticipating yet another year of extreme heat ahead. “If we look at the forecast for the next three months in the long range, it’s suggesting that the trend that we’re seeing in baseline warming could continue, and so 2024 could rival 2023 for being the hottest year on record, which is very scary,” says Chloe Brimicombe, a heatwave researcher at the University of Graz.
The aggravating heatwaves are also attributed to El Nino officially ending and ripples from its demise shaking up weather around the globe. El Nino – a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean – has gripped the planet since the start of last summer. It reached super status earlier this year after boosting temperatures during the hottest year on record and influencing other global weather events.
Most notably, El Nino helped push both air and ocean temperatures to record levels globally. Every month from June 2023-May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, CNN previously reported. Global ocean temperatures first climbed to record breaking levels in March 2023 and have remained at historic levels since then. Despite records starting before El Nino arrived on the scene, the toasty climate pattern only exacerbated the situation as record heat in the air seeped into the oceans. Oceans are incredibly slow to cool, especially since about 90% of the world’s excess heat produced by burning planet-heating fossil fuels are stored in them.
Now, with El Nino out of the spotlight, its opposite is preparing to take centre stage later this summer: La Nina. The transition to La Nina isn’t the only factor influencing temperatures during the hottest time of the year. They are always on the rise in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution. So back to square one it is, sadly though.