For a while now, it has been clear that two elections – one on each side of the Atlantic – would decide the fate of liberal democracy in 2024: the June European Parliament elections and the November US presidential election. While fears that European elections would deliver a resounding victory to far-right anti-European Union parties were not borne out, liberal democracy is hardly in the clear, in Europe or the United States.
Though the EU was spared the worst in the recent elections, far-right parties did make significant gains, especially in the two largest (economically) and most important (politically) member states, France and Germany. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland took second place, while the centre-right Christian Democrats remained the strongest force. In France, the far-right National Rally came in first, leading President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and call a snap election.
That decision brought National Rally to the threshold of power, though a disaster was averted in the election’s second round. The left, united under the umbrella of the New Popular Front, came in first, but fell well short of a majority. With a hung parliament, France will be paralysed, with fatal consequences for Europe. Germany alone cannot advance the bloc’s objective of securing its sovereignty in a more dangerous world.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a political hurricane is brewing. Following his poor debate performance in June, President Joe Biden has finally decided to drop out of the race and endorse his vice-president, Kamala Harris. But Donald Trump is at the gates. If polls are borne out, he could return to the White House in January, and that, too, would have far-reaching consequences for Europe (along with the rest of the West).
This would not just affect Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Europe’s fundamentally altered security situation, or the uncertain future of Nato. Rather, it concerns the core values and institutions that underpin Western democracy. If the US is transformed from a liberal democracy to an “illiberal” one, there are many in Europe who will celebrate its new identity. Moreover, one should never underestimate the extent to which America can influence European affairs.
Another Trump presidency would not be like the last one. Trump 2.0 would do everything he could to change America permanently from a liberal democracy to one in which his own autocratic, authoritarian impulses would have free rein. He would show zero tolerance for his enemies and rivals, and no concern whatsoever for the separation of powers or the constitution. He already demonstrated how far he is willing to go on January 6, 2021, when he encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol, following weeks of efforts to overturn the results of a free and fair election.
For this reason, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the only one hoping for a Trump victory. All right-wing-nationalist and far-right parties are, because they long to usher in the same kinds of changes at home.
Our current understanding of Western liberal democracy – featuring a separation of powers, free and fair elections, the rule of law, constitutional protections for minorities, freedom of expression, and other fundamental rights – is the result of America’s victories in World War II and then the Cold War. If the US were to abdicate its role as the driving force and leading exemplar of this liberal form of democracy, the liberal West as a whole would be in danger, and liberal Europe even more so.
A Trump victory would strengthen and embolden far-right-nationalist parties across the continent, while bolstering Russia through a cessation of American support for Ukraine. With France already paralysed, the European project would be completely at the mercy of those who want to do away with it. For those who value the EU, it would be nothing short of a nightmare.
As the Ukraine crisis has shown, the transatlantic West cannot be defeated from the outside, but it can be weakened and pulled apart from within. If Europeans slide back into nationalism, we will have squandered our last chance to decide our own fate, and to ensure peace and freedom for our children and grandchildren.
Given the changing geopolitical environment – the rivalry between major powers, the rise of the Global South, the demographic weakness of advanced economies, and new technological revolutions – Europe will not get another chance to shape the world of tomorrow. A lot is at stake on November 5, 2024, when Americans go to the polls. The world as we know it here in liberal Europe could cease to exist on the morning of November 6.
