Political newcomer Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 37, will be nominated at a special vote of parliament today and if successful, would become Thailand’s second female premier and the third Shinawatra to hold the top post.
The announcement followed a flurry of backroom talks in the 24 hours since a court dismissed Srettha Thavisin as premier, in what was the latest blow for Pheu Thai, the populist juggernaut of the billionaire Shinawatra family that has locked horns for two decades with Thailand’s influential establishment and royalist military.
“The country has to move ahead, Pheu Thai is the main party in forming a government and will push the country forward,” Paetongtarn told a joint press conference, flanked by leaders of the party’s 10 coalition partners. “We are determined, together, and will push the country forward.”
Srettha was the movement’s fourth premier to be removed by a court ruling and his downfall suggests a breakdown in an uneasy detente between Thaksin and his enemies in the conservative elite and military old guard, which had enabled the tycoon’s return from self-exile in 2023 and ally Srettha to become premier the same day.
Pheu Thai’s decision will come as a surprise to some political analysts, who had expected heavyweight Thaksin, 75, Pheu Thai’s founder and figurehead, would delay his political dynasty and shield his youngest daughter from Thailand’s cutthroat politics for a little longer.
Pheu Thai and its predecessors have borne the brunt of the tumult, with two Shinawatra governments ousted in coups in a long-running grudge match that began when former telecoms magnate Thaksin tried to upend established patronage networks, angering elites with far-reaching connections.
Uncertainty about political upheaval could add more strain to an underperforming economy that Srettha had hoped to revive with a raft of stimulus measures, some that could now be in question, including his vaunted plan to give 10,000 baht ($285) handouts to 50mn people.
Providing the 11-party alliance stays intact, Paetongtarn should have no difficulty in winning the vote in parliament, where the coalition holds 314 seats, or nearly two-thirds of the current 493 lawmakers.
The approval of more than half of the house is required to become prime minister.
If elected, Paetongtarn has multiple challenges to overcome, including assumptions that she will be a puppet of Thaksin, whose claims to have retired from politics since his return after 15 years abroad have fallen on deaf ears.
As an indicator of his immense clout, discussions late on Wednesday between the coalition partners took place at Thaksin’s residence, with media showing live images of the leaders arriving.
The gamble on neophyte Paetongtarn comes at a sensitive time in Thai politics, when a Shinawatra dynasty risks the kind of backlash that drove her father and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra into self-imposed exile.
“She would be open to attack,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University. “The risk for Paetongtarn is higher. If Pheu Thai can’t deliver anything then it could be the end of the Shinawatra family in politics.”
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