Defending Formula One champion Max Verstappen said on Thursday he was less confident ahead of his home Grand Prix than at this time last year, with a “very close” race in prospect. Verstappen has never lost in front of his adoring fans since Zandvoort returned to the F1 circuit in 2021 and completely dominated the drivers’ championship last year with 19 Grand Prix victories.

But after a strong start this season, the Red Bull driver has failed to win the last four Grand Prix races and he said the feeling was very different coming into Sunday’s battle than in 2023.

“Let’s just say that last year coming here, I was a lot more confident that we had a big chance of winning the race,” Verstappen told reporters.

“But that’s how the season is already, you know. It’s a lot more competitive,” he added.

With 10 races left, Verstappen enjoys a 78-point advantage over his closest rival, Lando Norris, but is looking nervously over his shoulder as his rivals make up ground.

“Lately you see there are a lot of cars actually winning races and drivers, of course. So, it’s just very unknown. I mean, it’s very close,” he said. “So for sure, I’m not coming into this weekend saying that, ‘yeah, we’re going to win the race’. I just want to have a clean weekend, understand the car a bit more, learn from it,” he said.

Verstappen is celebrating his 200th Grand Prix on Sunday and appeared to suggest that he was more than halfway through his career at the age of 26. Asked if he thought he would celebrate another 200 Grand Prix, he replied: “No. Nice and easy. So we’ve passed halfway, for sure.”

He said he doesn’t feel like he already has 200 races under his belt and it has been an “incredible ride”, singling out his first Grand Prix win and the first of his three World Championships as highlights.

But he said he was not looking currently beyond the end of his contract with Red Bull in 2028.

“There’s a lot of time to decide what happens. So, I just keep everything open. I’m quite easy-going about it.” Closest rival Norris gave an honest assessment of his chances of narrowing the gap with Verstappen.

“Of course it’s still in reach, but it’s a lot of points and it’s against Max,” he quipped.

“I know it’s a lot and it’s going to be a very difficult challenge, but with how we’re performing, with how I know I can go out and perform when things click and things go well, then I still want to believe it’s possible.”

His McLaren has been performing progressively quicker throughout the first half of the season but Norris admitted that some errors of his own had cost valuable points.

“I have just made too many mistakes and a few too many points given away which is not the level I need to be at if I want to fight for a championship at the end of the day,” said the 24-year-old Briton.

A stone’s throw from the beach, the circuit at Zandvoort is known for sand on the track and rapidly changeable weather - last year’s race saw a heavy downpour.

Wet weather is forecast for practice and qualifying today and tomorrow and while Sunday’s race day looks set fair, violent wind gusts are expected throughout.

“Apparently it’s going to be quite exotic weather on Saturday which I’m looking forward to,” said Alpine’s French driver Pierre Gasly.

“Because it’s a tough track on the dry but then in the wet it becomes suddenly a lot more challenging.”

Daniel Ricciardo from RB Racing said gusts of up to 80 kilometres per hour were expected. “Those winds are hard,” said the Australian, adding that qualifying laps might be slower than expected.

But Finland’s Valterri Bottas of Kick-Sauber was sanguine about the conditions.

“You can’t adjust the wind, but you can adjust the sails,” he said.

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