Turkiye’s central bank holds rate at 50%, warns on inflation

Turkiye’s central bank held interest rates at 50% on Thursday as expected but warned that a bump in recent inflation data lifted uncertainty, in a hawkish signal that could reinforce views that policy easing won’t begin until next year."In September, the underlying trend of inflation posted a slight increase,” the bank’s policy committee said.The "uncertainty regarding the pace of improvement in inflation has increased in light of incoming data,” it said, adding: "inflation expectations and pricing behaviour continue to pose risks to the disinflation process.” Some analysts said the cautious message suggested the bank will wait until around January to begin cutting rates, after a more than year-long effort to slay years of soaring inflation.After monthly inflation was higher than expected at nearly 3% in September, a Reuters poll showed the bank was expected to wait until December or January to begin its anticipated easing cycle, later than earlier polls."It seems clear that the (central bank) — like us — doesn’t think the conditions are in place for a monetary easing cycle to start very soon,” wrote Nicholas Farr, economist at Capital Economics.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said the "reasonably hawkish and cautious tone” helps the bank’s credibility in its inflation fight. "The latest decision increased the chances of an early 2025 cut,” she said.The last time the central bank raised its main policy rate was in March, when it hiked by 500 basis points to round off an aggressive tightening cycle that started in June last year.Since then, it has kept the one-week repo rate on hold. In a change of messaging last month, it began setting the stage for a rate cut by dropping a reference to potential further tightening.But the central bank gave no further signal it was preparing for cuts on Thursday. "(T)he disinflation process will gain strength,” the bank said, adding "it remains highly attentive to inflation risks”.Annual inflation has dropped to 49.4% — below the policy rate for the first time in this cycle — from a peak of 75% in May.The central bank is closely watching the monthly rate for signals of when to begin easing, though it has only dipped below 2% once this year, in June. It is also watching for high household inflation expectations to ease toward its targets.