The first two weeks of US President Donald Trump’s second term were marked by a flurry of directives and executive orders. As expected, he wasted no time withdrawing the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, just as he did during his first presidency. He withdrew the US from the World Health Organisation as well, and soon initiated a sweeping deportation campaign, using tariffs to pressure Colombia into accepting military planes carrying deported Colombian citizens.While controversial, the deportation of undocumented immigrants – particularly those with criminal records – has broad public support. Other Trump initiatives, such as his renewed push to purchase Greenland and regain control of the Panama Canal, have been more polarising, and his decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America has raised eyebrows in the US and abroad.True to form, Trump has also introduced a raft of new tariffs. Most notably, he followed through on his campaign threats and announced a 10% tariff on imports from China. Before assuming office, Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods.But Trump’s tariff offensive is not confined to traditional adversaries. In addition to China, he imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by pledging “forceful but reasonable” retaliation, though his ability to follow through is limited. In early January, Trudeau, with his popularity plumbing new lows, announced his resignation. Trump’s threats and relentless mockery – including the suggestion that Canada become the 51st US state – did not help, further undermining Trudeau’s already fragile political standing.Trump has also announced plans to impose tariffs on Taiwan-made semiconductors, prompting emergency talks among Taiwanese policymakers. Taken together, these moves confirm what has long been apparent: geopolitical alliances mean little to Trump unless they serve his immediate interests.Curiously, Trump has remained silent about Japan and South Korea, America’s two major allies in East Asia. Neither country was mentioned in his inauguration speech or in any of his subsequent statements and policy announcements. Both could find themselves under renewed pressure soon enough, given that Trump has been calling for them to spend more on defence since his first term. For the time being, however, Trump’s apparent lack of interest in Japan and South Korea could work in their favour.It is certainly a welcome relief for South Korea, which is in the midst of a domestic political crisis following the impeachment and arrest of former president Yoon Suk-yeol. Since South Korea does not have a vice-president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo initially stepped in as acting president after Yoon was impeached for briefly declaring martial law. But Han himself was impeached two weeks later, leaving his deputy Choi Sang-mok to assume the roles of acting prime minister and president. Amid this political turmoil, Choi’s ability to push back against potential demands from Trump is severely constrained.The Japanese government, for its part, is treading carefully, seeking to maintain a close relationship with Trump while considering possible concessions to avoid being hit by tariffs. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s first meeting with Trump is this week, three months after the US presidential election in November. Ishiba congratulated Trump after his victory, but their phone call lasted only five minutes – a stark contrast to Trump’s 12-minute call with then-South Korean President Yoon and 25-minute conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.During Trump’s first term, Japan’s then-prime minister Shinzo Abe cultivated a strong relationship with the US president, bonding over their shared love of golf and establishing himself as a trusted ally in international forums like the G7. Ishiba, who is not a golfer, lacks this personal rapport, as well as the negotiating skills that led Trump to see Abe as a reliable partner.Moreover, Abe was a political powerhouse. By securing a historic third term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, he solidified his image as a strong and popular figure. By contrast, Ishiba has limited influence over the LDP and the Diet (the Japanese parliament’s lower house). As the head of a minority government, he has expressed a willingness to work with opposition parties to pass key legislation – an approach that may strike Trump as a sign of weakness. Given Ishiba’s tenuous hold on leadership, Japan may come to view Trump’s indifference as a blessing. — Project Syndicate