Qatar leads in filling ‘significant proportion’ of Asia’s growing needs for imported gas: IGU

Qatar has taken the lead role in filling ‘significant proportion’ of Asia’s growing need for imported gas over the next decades, International Gas Union (IGU) has said in a recent report.

In the Middle East, increased natural gas use has supported oil exports and met growth in power demand. Now, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia among others, are repositioning natural gas to meet the energy and decarbonisation goals of coal-dependent Asia even as they boost intra-regional gas trade, IGU noted in the latest issue of its ‘Global Voice of Gas’.

Just as the move from oil to gas made more oil available for export, the shift from gas to lower carbon generation sources should support the export of gas, primarily as liquefied natural gas (LNG), it said.

“A large part of this LNG will end up in Asia, where it can displace both oil in transport and coal in power and heat provision,” IGU said.

Alongside Qatar’s much larger expansion of its LNG export capacities (at the North Field), the Middle East’s LNG producers will likely fill a significant proportion of Asia’s growing need for imported gas over the next decades, IGU said.

Together with the accelerated growth of renewables, this could eventually turn the tide on the 135.7 exajoules of coal consumed in Asia in 2023.

Asia’s gas demand is forecast to rise 78% by 2050 to reach 1,590bn m3, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, equating to a 16% share of the region’s energy mix, compared with 11% in 2022.

This will be driven by a combination of electrification and coal-to-gas switching. Although Asian gas production will increase, it will not do so fast enough to keep pace with demand.

The GECF estimates that gas exports to Asia will, by 2050, exceed 50% of the region’s total consumption.

“If gas is not available, Asia’s retreat from dependency on coal will be slower,” IGU noted.

A significant proportion of Asian gas demand can be met by Middle Eastern countries. While Qatar has taken the lead with its giant North Field expansion, other countries also recognise the potential, it said.

Energy analyst Ross McCracken noted, “If there is one stand out trend across the Middle East over the last decade, it is the increase in domestic gas use, primarily for power generation. Intra-regional gas trade has also grown, with LNG imports and exports providing flexibility amid a still limited set of regional pipelines.

“This has provided energy security for those countries unable to meet rising gas demand from their own resources.”

Gas inputs for electricity in the Middle East jumped from 567TWh in 2013 to 1,028TWh in 2023, while oil use for power dropped by about 19%. Prior to that, oil use in power generation was on a strong upward trajectory, with 2013 marking the high point.

Middle Eastern electricity consumption has risen at a rate of 3.8% annually over the last decade, second only to Asia, and substantially higher than the world average of 2.5% a year.

While absolute emissions have increased, as economies have grown, more gas use and a growing share of non-fossil fuel alternatives have reduced the overall carbon intensity per kWh generated.