Natural gas set to see 34% increase in global demand by 2050: GECF secretary-general

Natural gas provides a cleaner, affordable, versatile, and reliable energy source as a Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) forecast shows primary energy demand is set to expand by 20% by 2050, according to the forum's Secretary-General Mohamed Hamel.

The Doha-headquartered GECF forecasts a 34% increase in global natural gas demand by 2050.

In his opening remarks at the Ministerial Panel on Natural Gas for Sustainable Development at the COP29 in Baku, Hamel noted, "The global energy system is vast and complex, having evolved and optimised over more than two centuries. It delivers the energy equivalent of 3,500 barrels of oil every second, in the blink of an eye.

“Yet, despite this scale, 2.3bn people still lack access to clean cooking fuels, and 700mn are without reliable electricity. Transforming such an extensive system will require considerable time and enormous financial resources. This task is made even more challenging by the reality that global energy demand will only continue to grow.”

According to GECF forecasts, primary energy demand is set to expand by 20% by 2050, driven by rising population, expanding urbanisation, growing economy, and the pursuit of improved living standards.

This, he noted, raises a central question: How can we meet growing energy needs while safeguarding our environment?

There is no one-size-fits-all model; energy pathways must be tailored to each nation's unique circumstances, capacities, and priorities, with international cooperation as a vital enabler. However, a compelling answer lies in natural gas.

As the least carbon-intensive hydrocarbon, natural gas provides a cleaner, affordable, versatile, and reliable energy source.

Natural gas supports sustainable development through multiple avenues: replacing coal in power generation, transitioning from wood and charcoal to LPG for cooking and heating, stabilising renewable-based power systems, offering low-cost blue hydrogen to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries, and serving as an essential feedstock for chemicals and fertilisers, being thus at the heart of food security.

Together, these contributions affirm natural gas’s indispensable role in a sustainable energy future.

While natural gas may serve as a transitional fuel in Europe, where demand is projected to decline due to policy shifts and deindustrialisation, it remains a destination fuel across other world regions—especially in developing countries where demand continues to grow well after 2050.

The GECF member countries have heavily invested in the development of their natural gas resources to satisfy world growing energy needs, taking geological and economic risks, as this industry is capital-intensive with long lead times and payback period.

“Security of demand is critical,” Hamel said and noted a stable and predictable demand over the long term enables producers to plan their operations and investments effectively. This security also entails continued access to markets and financing, as well as economic, regulatory, trade and contractual stability.

In this connection, the Algiers Declaration adopted by the 7th GECF Summit of Heads of State and Government, expressed their rejection of unilateral economic restrictions, trade distortive measures, and politically driven interventions in price discovery and risk management functions of markets.

While natural gas is already a cleaner energy, technological advancements are further reducing its environmental impact. Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage—or CCUS—along with gas flaring reduction and methane abatement, make it possible to minimise emissions throughout its lifecycle.

Recognising the importance of technological collaboration, GECF member countries have established the Gas Research Institute (GRI) in Algiers, Hamel said.