Sustainable aviation fuel plays pivotal role in airlines' decarbonisation initiatives

The use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is rapidly advancing, with global production projected to nearly double this year as airlines around the world sign agreements with producers to purchase future SAF production.

Over the past two years, the airline industry made significant strides in this regard, securing some 75 offtake agreements, including 53 binding and 22 non-binding commitments, according to the global trade body of airlines – IATA.

Hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) and HEFA co-processing are the most mature and commercially viable technologies available, and they account for most SAF offtake agreements.

According to IATA estimates, the aviation industry consumed between 450,000 and 500,000 tonnes of SAF at $2,500 per tonne in 2023. This unit cost is 2.8 times higher than the price for conventional aviation fuel, and thus added $756mn to the industry fuel bill in 2023.

The aviation industry is set to increase its use of SAF to further reduce its carbon footprint. IATA estimates that SAF production could rise to 0.53% of airlines’ total fuel consumption in 2024, adding $2.4bn to 2024’s industry fuel bill.

And this year, SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875bn litres (1.5Mt), accounting for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need, and 6% of renewable fuel capacity.

Despite this growth, analysts say, SAF will still represent less than 1% of aviation fuel demand in the short term. Europe leads in SAF production, driven by regulatory mandates such as the EU’s "Fit for 55" initiative, which requires SAF to make up 6% of aviation fuel by 2030.

Meanwhile, the US aims for ambitious SAF production targets of 3bn gallons by 2030 and 35bn gallons by 2050.

Undoubtedly, SAF technologies and feedstocks are diversifying. While hydro-processing of waste oils remains dominant, emerging methods like gasification of biomass, ethanol-to-jet, and power-to-liquid fuels are gaining traction. These alternatives address challenges related to feedstock sustainability and supply chain limitations.

However, scaling production seems to be constrained by high costs, technological barriers, and limited market transparency.

To meet the industry's decarbonisation goals, policy support, investments in infrastructure, and innovation in feedstocks will be critical.

Long-term targets require SAF to constitute a significant share of aviation fuel by 2050, underscoring the importance of global collaboration and regulatory frameworks

The small percentage of current SAF output as a proportion of overall renewable fuel is primarily due to the new capacity coming online in 2023 being allocated to other renewable fuels.

The 3rd Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) last year agreed on a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030.

But to reach this level, about 17.5bn litres (14Mt) of SAF need to be produced.

According to industry experts, every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added $756mn to a record high fuel bill in 2023.

Nearly 45 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25bn litres (13Mt) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being announced regularly.

Projections are for over 78bn litres (63Mt) of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivises renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments.

Experts affirm that effective production incentives for Sustainable Aviation Fuel should support the following objectives:

Accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies, ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities, focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production, identifying and prioritising high potential production projects for investment support and delivering a global SAF Accounting Framework.

Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as feedstock, IATA says.

An earlier IATA survey had revealed significant public support for Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

Some 86% of travellers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF.

In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. X handle: @PratapJohn