Opinion
Russia’s evolving influence in Sudan: Shifting alliances and strategic gains
November 26, 2024 | 11:56 PM
In 2024, Russia shifted its backing from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), signalling a major change in its involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. This shift can be traced to the 2019 coup, which ousted President Omar al-Bashir. The coup had support from Russian officials, including Yevgeny Prigozhin.In the aftermath, Russia provided crucial backing to the RSF, including military assistance and strategic advice, to help stabilise the new regime. Russia and China blocked a UN Security Council resolution condemning the RSF’s deadly crackdown on protesters in June 2019, justifying the violence as necessary for maintaining stability.The connection between Russia and Sudan deepened when Wagner Group mercenaries began aiding the Sudanese government in suppressing large protests in 2018. Wagner operatives trained Sudanese security forces and advised on tactics to undermine opposition, including using disinformation to smear protesters and manipulate media narratives. As protests escalated due to severe economic difficulties and human rights abuses, the government responded with violent repression, with evidence later linking Russian mercenaries and military equipment to the crackdown.In 2023, Sudan descended into a full-scale conflict between the SAF and RSF. Russia’s role as a supposed peace mediator became increasingly problematic as Wagner mercenaries were shown to be directly involved with the RSF. While Russian officials expressed concern over the violence, their continued support for the RSF undermined their credibility as neutral brokers.Russia’s broader influence in Africa, especially in countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, has capitalised on weaknesses in Western policies and sanctions. Moscow has leveraged these opportunities to gain political, diplomatic, and economic leverage from authoritarian regimes, but this often comes at a high human cost.A central element in Russia’s growing influence in Sudan has been the country’s vast gold resources. M-Invest, a company connected to the Wagner Group, secured mining rights in Sudan, allowing Russia to extract valuable gold. Russian mercenaries soon arrived to assist Sudanese forces, and Sudan’s involvement in peace talks for the Central African Republic made it a critical part of Russia’s strategy in the region.The ties between Russia and Sudan deepened in 2017 after the US lifted sanctions on Sudan. Omar al-Bashir travelled to Sochi to meet with President Vladimir Putin, seeking protection from US hostility. In return, Sudan offered Russia military support and access to critical resources, including gold, and allowed the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan.As Sudan’s political crisis unfolded, Russia’s support for Bashir and his successors contributed to the country’s instability. Following the 2019 coup, Russian mercenaries, linked to Wagner and its affiliate Meroe Gold, became involved in the illicit gold trade. When the US imposed sanctions on Meroe Gold, Sudanese officials created a new front company, Al-Solag, to continue these operations covertly. Despite efforts to curb this trade, Sudan’s military government, after staging a coup in 2021, disbanded the anti-corruption committee that had uncovered these illicit activities, silencing opposition to the gold smuggling operations.With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Sudan’s gold became crucial for Russia as a means to bypass international sanctions and fund its war effort. Sudan further aligned with Russia, abstaining from UN votes condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and even granting approval for a Russian naval base on its shores. Despite public concerns about the violence in Sudan, Russia’s continued support for the military regime and its backing of the RSF exacerbated the crisis, leading to even greater suffering for the Sudanese people.Russia’s growing influence in Africa is part of a broader strategy that exploits the weaknesses of Western interventions and sanctions. Countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, where Russia has offered political and military support to authoritarian governments, have become crucial partners for Moscow.However, this relationship comes at a heavy humanitarian cost. Russia’s support for oppressive regimes only deepens the violence, corruption, and human rights abuses in these countries. While Moscow positions itself as a counterbalance to Western influence, its actions reveal a stark contradiction — fostering authoritarian rule while criticising foreign interference. The citizens of these countries bear the greatest burden, enduring the consequences of Russia’s exploitative policies.mohsulieman@gmail.com
November 26, 2024 | 11:56 PM