Fed lowers rates by quarter point, signals two cuts for 2025

Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025, signalling greater caution over how quickly they can continue reducing borrowing costs.The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 yesterday to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.New quarterly forecasts showed several officials pencilled in fewer rate cuts for next year than they estimated just a few months ago. They now see their benchmark rate reaching a range of 3.75% to 4% by the end of 2025, implying two quarter-percentage-point cuts, according to the median estimate.Only five officials indicated a preference for more reductions next year.A majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected the median rate estimate would point to three cuts next year.Policymakers also made a subtle adjustment to the language of the statement released after their meeting, saying they would assess several factors "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments” to the policy rate.Previously, they merely said "in considering additional adjustments.”The S&P 500 index fell following the announcement, while US Treasury yields and the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose.Policymakers have now lowered their benchmark lending rate by a full percentage point since mid-September, when they began cuts with an aggressive half-point move. At the time, they were encouraged by falling inflation and worried the labour market was approaching a dangerous tipping point. Since then, the landscape has shifted. The labour market has proved resilient, with payrolls growing by an average 173,000 over the last three months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in November, but remains low by historical standards. Powell said earlier this month that downside risks to the labour market appear to have receded.Policymakers now see the unemployment rate 4.3% in 2025, updated projections show. They also slightly raised their forecast for economic growth in 2025 to 2.1%. Meanwhile, recent price data has raised concerns that inflation may be stalling above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting a number of Fed officials to say they’d prefer to slow the pace of cuts.Some have done so while voicing confidence that inflation will continue to decline, pointing to factors such as an anticipated slowdown in housing costs.Others, like Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, have emphasised that inflation remains uncomfortably above the Fed’s goal.The median projection for inflation at the end of next year jumped to 2.5%, from 2.1% in September.Officials again raised their median estimate of where the policy rate will settle over the long run to 3% from 2.9%.Officials have said there is substantial uncertainty over where that so-called neutral rate, which neither promotes nor inhibits economic activity, lies following the Covid-19 pandemic.Some have suggested the neutral rate has moved higher, meaning officials can reach it with fewer cuts than previously anticipated.President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies on trade, immigration and taxation add another element of uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Depending on how they are structured, those could put upward pressure on inflation and constrain the labour market, according to some estimates. Powell has said the Fed is modelling and evaluating Trump’s proposals, but not yet incorporating them into decisions because it’s unclear what specific form the policies will take.