A bumper pace of new share sales across the Middle East in 2024 is expected to continue next year, even though a few recent disappointing trading debuts have flashed warning signs on valuations.Firms have raised $13bn from initial public offerings in 2024, marking the Middle East’s second-best year since the pandemic. But unlike in previous years, buoyant early returns are no longer a given.The three largest Gulf offerings of the year — Talabat Holding PLC, OQ Exploration & Production SAOG and Lulu Retail Holdings PLC — had muted debuts recently after drawing significant demand. Lulu and Talabat’s deals were both upsized at a late stage, potentially leading to oversupply, some analysts said.“Investors are expressing more sensitivity on valuation, and are more attuned to paying for growth companies as opposed to just buying the yield opportunities,” according to Ali Khalpey, head of equity capital markets at EFG Hermes.Still, as Gulf governments continue a push to diversify their economies and deepen capital markets, market participants expect the rush of listings to continue.“I don’t see anything stopping it,” said Andrew Briscoe, Bank of America Corp’s head of equity capital markets syndicate in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. “IPOs haven’t all worked well of late, but I don’t think it stops the issuance levels, although it might impact investor interest.”For context on how busy it’s been, the United Arab Emirates is set to be the leading venue for listings in the broader Europe, Middle East and Africa region for the third year in a row, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also rank among the top ten venues for share sales globally.There were also sizeable IPOs outside those markets. Two large deals helped Oman leapfrog the likes of UK and Germany by total volume of share sales. The sultanate has a further pipeline of about 30 assets it wants to privatise, including logistics company Asyad Group and Oman Electricity Transmission Co, while OQ also plans to line up further listings in coming years.In the UAE, Abu Dhabi’s flag carrier Etihad Airways is considering a landmark IPO that could make it the first Gulf hub carrier to go public, while a conglomerate owned by Dubai’s ruler is weighing two real estate listings. Other potential deals include a classifieds website, an information technology services firm and a construction company.Saudi Arabia is also likely to see a string of listings, potentially including low-cost carrier Flynas, buy-now-pay-later unicorn Tabby and tech firm Ejada. The country’s wealth fund, which has been on a drive to raise cash, could sell stakes in medical procurement firm Nupco and a port operator.EFG Hermes’ Khalpey expects the kingdom to generate the largest number of IPOs next year, including both state-owned and private businesses.“Many companies have scaled over the last few years and want to take advantage of the positive macro trends in the kingdom,” said Khalpey, whose bank has advised on the highest number of listings in the Gulf in 2024, according to Bloomberg’s league tables. “That’s going to crystallise in a number of IPOs from different sectors.”Recent Saudi listings such as United International Holding and Tamkeen have tended to buck the trend of muted early trading seen in the UAE and Oman.While the uptick in IPO activity in the US and Europe has given investors more choice and an opportunity to be more discerning, there are reasons to believe more international money will flow to the Gulf.The IPO boom of recent years has meant that Middle Eastern volumes are becoming a larger part of global indexes, making it harder for global fund managers to ignore the region, according to Rami Sidani, head of frontier investments at Schroder Investment Management.Lulu’s IPO, for one, drew in Vanguard Group Inc and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte.Meanwhile, about 60% of Saudi Aramco’s $12bn sale of existing shares was allocated to foreign investors, a marked shift from its 2019 listing, where only 23% of the shares went to international buyers. That deal was one of three share offerings by public companies in the Middle East this year.While sales of new and existing shares in listed firms are still relatively rare in the Gulf, more are expected next year. That will give investors opportunities to top up on stocks they might have missed out on during IPOs, while also helping firms reach the level of free float they need to be included in indexes.“Companies looking to do follow-ons will have to compete for investor attention amid a number of new names,” said Samer Deghaili, co-head of investment banking for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkiye at HSBC Holdings Plc, which is the top-ranked institution for regional equity offerings by value, according to Bloomberg’s league tables.“For a company to do a follow-on, they will have to offer a strong growth story where investors can still come in and top up in the stock,” Deghaili said.