Asia shares rose slightly in holiday-thinned trade yesterday, extending gains from earlier in the week with little news or data in the way to alter their direction of travel, while the dollar was perched near a two-year high.
As the year-end approaches, trading volumes have begun thinning out and the main focus for investors remains that of the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday yesterday.
Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell primed markets for fewer rate cuts next year at the central bank’s last policy meeting of the year, traders are now pricing in just about 35 basis points worth of easing for 2025.
That has in turn lifted US Treasury yields and the dollar, with the greenback’s renewed strength a burden for commodities and gold.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last steady at 4.5967%, having risen above 4.6% for the first time since May 30 earlier in the week. It is up roughly 40 basis points for the month thus far. The two-year yield similarly firmed at 4.3407%.
“Given December’s hawkish cut, we believe the Fed will skip at the January FOMC meeting and wait for more data before definitely resuming, or potentially ending, this cutting cycle,” said Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “Given the Fed’s shift to less accommodation paired with continued focus on both sides of the dual mandate, we believe the market will have more intense emphasis on economic events in the new year.”
In currencies, the dollar was perched near a two-year high against a basket of currencies at 108.15, and was on track for a monthly gain of more than 2%.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were meanwhile among the biggest losers against a dominant greenback on Thursday, with the Aussie falling 0.45% to $0.6241. The kiwi slid 0.51% to $0.5650.
The euro eased 0.18% to $1.0398, while the yen languished near a five-month low and last stood at 157.45 per dollar.
Japan’s government was set to compile a record $735bn budget for the fiscal year starting in April due to larger social security and debt-servicing costs, adding to the industrial world’s heaviest debt, a draft seen by Reuters showed.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.04% and was headed for a weekly rise of nearly 2%, taking a cue from its counterparts on Wall Street earlier in the week.
S&P 500 futures edged 0.02% higher, while Nasdaq futures advanced 0.13%.
World stocks looked set to end the year on a high with a second consecutive annual gain of more than 17%, unfazed by escalating geopolitical tensions and various economic and political headwinds globally.
That is mostly thanks to a second year of huge gains for shares on Wall Street as artificial intelligence fever and robust economic growth sucked more global capital into US assets.
“At first glance, markets appear to suggest exceptional exuberance that has presided over 2024,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank.
“Notably, US bulls high on American exceptionalism have not trampled on ebullience elsewhere.”
Japan’s Nikkei jumped 0.38% and was on track to end the year with a more than 17% gain.
China’s CSI300 blue-chip index fell 0.26% while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.22%, though both were headed for yearly gains of more than 10% each, helped by a step-up in support from Chinese authorities in recent months to shore up an ailing economy.