India’s growth momentum faces significant headwinds as the surprise pickup in economic growth last quarter comes amid rising concern over US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs imposed on the Asian nation.Gross domestic product growth accelerated 7.8% in the three months to June, the fastest pace in more than a year and well above economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.But the surprisingly strong economic growth was likely exaggerated by statistical factors. While growth was stronger than expected, a lower deflator — used to strip out inflation from economic output — may have boosted the headline figure, according to economists from Goldman Sachs, HSBC Holdings, and Nomura Holdings.The reading assumes significance as the market is closely watching for signs of the economy’s ability to absorb the pressure from the 50% US tariffs that kicked in last week. The US is India’s biggest export market, and Trump’s tariffs could severely hurt labour-intensive industries such as textiles and footwear.Overall exports from India to the US, its biggest market, may more than halve. India exported more than $20bn of textile products, jewellery and diamonds to the US in 2023.Job losses in those sectors could hurt sentiment and weigh on growth. Citigroup economists estimate the tariffs could reduce India’s annual growth by 0.6–0.8 percentage points.Trump’s move to penalise India for buying oil from Russia will increase economic risks for the South Asian nation and test its longstanding ties with Moscow.Indian exports to the US were already hit with a 25% duty as part of Trump’s broader “reciprocal tariffs.” On August 27, he followed through on a threat to impose so-called secondary tariffs to punish India’s purchases of Russian crude, applying an additional 25% levy on Indian goods.The US and its partners see India’s imports of Russian oil as a form of tacit support for Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, weakening the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.The Indian government has called the extra tariffs “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” and defended its consumption of Russian oil as necessary for energy security.India has had a strong and stable relationship with Russia for seven decades.India’s relations with the US have improved in recent decades, and New Delhi has reduced its overwhelming reliance on Russian weapons by acquiring more arms from the US and European nations.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained his country’s longstanding ties to Moscow, while pursuing deeper links with the US, which it sees as a partner in standing up to a more assertive China. Trade between India and Russia reached a record-high $68.7bn in the year to March 31. India’s exports to Russia totalled $4.9bn, while its imports from Russia amounted to $63.8bn, according to a Bloomberg report.Tariff worries pushed India’s rupee to a record low on Friday of 88.21 against the dollar.To cushion the tariff hit, Modi’s government is rolling out measures to boost private consumption, which makes up about 60% of the economy. He announced a reduction in consumption taxes earlier this month, which will likely take effect from October, giving a boost to spending and helping to drive down prices.If India continues to trade with Russia, a 50% duty on its goods shipped to the US — the combined hit of the reciprocal and secondary tariffs — could reduce its exports to America by 60% and lower its gross domestic product by 0.9%, according to Bloomberg Economics.The economic impact may be cushioned by the fact that India’s economy is largely driven by domestic demand, rather than exports.Modi must now walk a geopolitical tightrope.If he allows India’s refiners to keep buying Russian oil, he risks a direct blow to the economy and damage to the ties with his country’s top trade partner.On the other hand, yielding to US pressure could undermine India’s long-standing relationship with Moscow.