Qatar set to drive Mideast LNG exports; 27% region's share of global supply by 2050: GECF

The Middle East region is expected to increase its LNG exports by approximately 106mn tonnes, accounting for 27% of the global LNG supply by 2050, GECF said and noted Qatar will mainly drive the region’s gas exports during the forecast period.

LNG exports are projected to expand significantly over the next three decades, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum has said in its ‘Global Gas Outlook 2050’.

The number of LNG-exporting countries is expected to rise from the current 22 to 27 by 2050, leading to a more diversified supply landscape, with North America emerging as the dominant LNG-exporting region by mid-century.

The Middle East is set to follow closely behind North America, with its share of global LNG exports projected to reach 25% by 2050, compared to 24% in 2023.

Qatar, already a leading LNG exporter, is expanding its liquefaction capacity through the North Field East and North Field South projects, while the UAE and Oman are ramping up production to meet growing global demand.

These investments will further strengthen the Middle East’s position as a key LNG supplier, particularly to Asia Pacific and Europe, reinforcing its strategic importance in the evolving global LNG market.

Qatar aims to nearly double its LNG production capacity, increasing output by approximately 85% from the current 77Mtpy to 142Mtpy by 2030.

This ambitious growth, led by the North Field Expansion project, will be implemented in three phases – through the North Field East (NFE), South (NFS), and West (NFW) expansion projects – and could contribute to a global oversupply later in the decade.

“This significant expansion will underpin Qatar’s continued and sustainable economic growth, aligning with the Qatar National Vision 2030,” GECF said.

GECF noted Qatar remains the dominant player in the Middle East’s midstream gas sector. With the North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) expansion projects, Qatar is set to significantly increase its LNG export capacity by 65Mtpy, bringing the total to 142Mtpy by the early 2030s.

The NFE project, valued at approximately $29bn is expected to commence operations by 2026, while the NFS project, estimated at over $14bn will follow shortly thereafter.

In 2023, some 12 of the 20 LNG suppliers were GECF member countries, collectively supplying 193Mt of LNG and meeting 47% of global LNG demand.

LNG trade is poised for significant growth among GECF member countries over the forecast period. This trend is driven by financial and technological advancements, making LNG more accessible to new consumers.

As global natural gas demand increases, LNG is emerging as a strategic commodity, influencing the political and economic landscapes of gas-producing countries.

Projections indicate that LNG exports from GECF member countries will reach approximately 445Mt by 2050, accounting for 56% of global LNG exports.