Opinion
Tariff war carries far-reaching consequences for global economy
A global tariff war could shrink trade by 1% and seriously threaten global economic stability


A global tariff war would carry significant consequences for international trade and the outlook for global economic growth.
Key multilateral institutions, including the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have already expressed serious concern over the imposition of higher-than-expected reciprocal tariffs by the United States.
According to the WTO, these measures could result in a contraction of approximately 1% in global merchandise trade volumes this year. The resulting uncertainty and reduction in global trade are expected to weigh heavily on economic growth across both developed and emerging markets.
Export-dependent sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are particularly vulnerable, facing the prospect of widespread job losses. While some domestic industries may receive short-term protection, such measures often lead to long-term inefficiencies and higher costs.
Economists around the world warn that these tariff hikes could destabilise the existing trade order and potentially ignite a prolonged conflict among major trading blocs, including the United States, China, and the European Union. The US decision to extend tariffs to nearly 60 countries is expected to further suppress global trade volumes.
Initial WTO projections indicate that the US tariff measures implemented on April 2 — alongside those introduced earlier this year — could lead to a downward revision of nearly four percentage points in global trade growth.
China seems to have no intention of backing down in the trade war that began last week after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on the nation.
In retaliation to Trump’s announcement, China announced on Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all US imports next week.
The tariffs taking effect Thursday match the rate that Trump this week ordered imposed on Chinese products flowing into the United States.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasised that the organisation is closely monitoring developments and engaging with member states on the possible economic ramifications.
"Recent announcements carry serious implications for global trade and growth prospects,” she stated.
"Our preliminary estimates suggest that these measures, combined with others introduced this year, may lead to an overall contraction of around 1% in global merchandise trade — representing a downward revision of nearly four percentage points from earlier forecasts.”
She also cautioned that escalating trade tensions could lead to retaliatory tariffs, compounding the decline in global trade. Despite these challenges, she noted that the majority of global trade continues to be conducted under the WTO’s Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) rules, although this share has decreased from 80% to 74% since the start of the year. Okonjo-Iweala urged WTO members to engage constructively to avoid further deterioration in the global trading environment.
"The WTO was created to provide a platform for dialogue during precisely these types of crises,” she said, "to prevent trade disputes from escalating and to uphold a stable, rules-based global trading system.”
Similarly, the IMF has raised alarms over the macroeconomic risks posed by the US tariffs.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva remarked, "We are still assessing the full implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly pose a substantial risk to the global outlook at a time of already sluggish growth. We urge the United States and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce trade tensions and global uncertainty.”
Tariff wars inherently disrupt international commerce by making imports more expensive, thereby hurting both exporters and importers.
Given the global nature of supply chains, tariffs also raise production costs and delay cross-border manufacturing processes. These effects often translate into higher consumer prices and inflationary pressure.
Moreover, businesses tend to postpone investment and expansion plans in the face of trade policy uncertainty.
Financial markets typically react negatively to trade tensions, resulting in equity selloffs and capital outflows. Emerging markets, in particular, are exposed to heightened currency volatility during such periods.
A global tariff war poses substantial threat to the integrity of the international trading system, with far-reaching consequences for economic stability, business confidence, and geopolitical co-operation.