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Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund became the largest outside shareholder of Nintendo Co on Friday, in the latest move by the Gulf state to lower its reliance on oil.The sovereign wealth fund now owns 8.3% of the Kyoto-based games company, according to a filing, building up a position that stood just above 6% at the start of the year. That puts PIF ahead of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund and behind only Nintendo’s own holding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Under Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia is making a concerted push to break into the games and esports industry. Most notably, it set up Savvy Games Group under the PIF umbrella with a $38bn budget and longtime industry veterans in charge. Savvy this week revealed its first foray into China’s games sector with a $260mn investment in a Tencent Holdings Ltd.-backed competitive gaming organiser.The latest Nintendo stake purchase was made for investment purposes, the filing said. A Nintendo representative said the company doesn’t comment on specific shareholders and PIF didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.“It’s tough to bet against PIF due to its size in the market,” UBS analyst Kenji Fukuyama said. “The fund may underpin Nintendo shares if it continues to increase its stake.”Nintendo marked PIF’s third investment in a Japanese game company that hit the public disclosure threshold of 5%, along with Nexon Co and Street Fighter maker Capcom Co.in 2022. Its growing portfolio in games and entertainment firms now includes Activision Blizzard Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software Inc and Koei Tecmo Holdings Co, data compiled by Bloomberg show.“The Nintendo purchase, as well as investments in game companies around the world, is part of Saudi Arabia’s long-term project to become less reliant on oil,” said Akira Takatoriya, a consultant who works with Japanese companies exporting pop culture content to the Middle East.The wealth fund’s investments are guided by the Saudi state’s goals for 2030, which include building strategic economic partnerships and bringing home cutting-edge technology. Some of the technologies the PIF has targeted include renewable energy, big data analysis and entertainment content.PIF is bankrolling the construction of Neom, a futuristic city in northwestern Saudi Arabia, which it plans to market as the region’s first gaming hub. It will house a campus to draw businesses, developers and artists to collaborate on games, marketing documents say.Prince Mohamed was behind PIF’s $45bn investment in tech investor SoftBank Group Corp’s first Vision Fund. That move spearheaded a multiyear effort to obtain footholds in the world’s most prominent startups.“I think PIF is not even done and wouldn’t be surprised if it continues to increase its stake in Nintendo going forward,” Tokyo-based industry consultant Serkan Toto said.

UK retail sales rose unexpectedly last month after post-Christmas discounting brought people into stores.The volume of goods sold in stores and online rose 0.5% in January after a 1.2% decline in December, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. Economists had expected a drop of 0.3%.The figures suggest consumers are weathering a cost-of-living squeeze better than forecasters think. That may add to concerns at the Bank of England about inflation, which is running at the fastest rates in four decades.“There is clearly still life in the consumer,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “Those thinking that the Bank of England might start moderating policy in the short term will be disappointed. Overall, the economic data is ambiguous, making the short and medium-term outlook really very uncertain.”Money markets pushed up the possibility of further BoE rate rises, pricing in the key rate rising a half percentage point to 4.52% by September. That’s up 6 basis points from Thursday. “An unexpected bounce in retail sales at the start of the year is unlikely to prevent Britain from falling into a recession. Instead, consumer spending is set to remain under pressure amid the biggest income squeeze in a generation,” says Niraj Shah, Bloomberg Economics. The ONS said discounting helped boost sales, although those that sold food and clothing suffered. Fuel sales rose as prices at the pump fell along with the cost of crude oil.“After December’s steep fall, retail sales picked up slightly in January, although the general trend remains one of decline,” said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS. “Discounting helped boost sales for online retailers as well as jewellers, cosmetic stores and carpet and furnishing shops.”While sales in clothing stores were down 2.9% month-on-month, household goods shops saw volumes climb 0.8%. Shops in the ONS’s catch-all “other stores” category saw their sales jump 3.6%.The figures will help the BoE weigh how much further it will need to raise borrowing costs to head off an inflationary spiral. Money markets indicate the key rate, now the highest since 2008, may rise at as much as a half point beyond the current 4% by the end of summer.Retail sales remain 1.4% below their pre-pandemic level. But the value of sales rose 14% over the same period, indicating that consumers are paying more to buy a smaller amount of goods because of inflation.Separate reports out this week showed that wages adjusted for inflation are falling and double-digit inflation persisted for a fifth consecutive month. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill on Thursday said policy makers must remain vigilant against inflation but hinted the pace of rate hikes may slow.“As the labour market tightens, there’s a risk that retailers will be drawn into a race to raise employees’ salaries,” said Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank. “This could fuel inflation, which although likely to temper towards the second half of the year, will still remain uncomfortably high.”The fall in sales in December was more than the 1% previously estimated, but is unlikely to have pushed the economy into recession. The ONS said sales knocked 0.05 percentage point off GDP in the fourth quarter, unrevised from its initial estimate.Lynda Petherick, head of retail at Accenture, said retailers would be “relieved to see trading move in the right direction.” But she added, “the road ahead for businesses continues to be a rocky one. Data out this week shows prices are continuing to climb, albeit at a slower rate, so consumers are still likely to be mindful of cutting back.”Last month’s readings reflect a shift toward more normal trends after the pandemic. Alcohol sales plunged from a year ago as people returned to restaurants and bars.The proportion of online sales fell to 25% in January 2023 from 25.7% in December 2022, signalling that more consumers were going back to Britain’s struggling bricks-and-mortar stores. But the proportion of online sales is still far higher than the pre-pandemic level of 19.8% in February 2020.“The one bright spot for high streets is the continued fall in penetration of online shopping,” said Lisa Hooker, industry leader for consumer markets at PwC. “This suggests that the pandemic shift to e-commerce did not create a sustained step up in online shopping.”Retailers remain gloomy about the outlook and reported disappointing takings in recent weeks as households reined in spending after a splurge over Christmas. Even supermarkets are feeling the pain. Shoppers bought less fresh produce and meat and poultry while sales of frozen goods grew, according to a report by NielsenIQ earlier this month.Unilever Plc, the consumer-goods giant that makes everything from Dove soap to Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, warned last week that shoppers are balking at higher prices, which will cut its growth this year. The premium supermarket chain Waitrose is cutting prices at record rates to keep its customers from flocking to discount stores like Aldi and Lidl.“We’re seeing polarisation between the essentials and non-essentials,” Kris Hamer, director of insights at the British Retail Consortium Director, said on Bloomberg Radio. The key area where growth is still continuing is largely driven by inflation. In all the other categories, there’s either stagnant growth or negative growth.”Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that a year ago consumers were kept out of stores by a resurgence of the omicron variant of Covid-19 and that the impact of higher borrowing costs has yet to fully feed through to the economy.

Air India unveiled deals yesterday for a record 470 jets from Airbus and Boeing, accelerating the rebirth of a national emblem under new owners Tata Group as Europe and the United States hailed deepening economic and political ties with New Delhi.The provisional deals include 220 planes from Boeing and 250 from Airbus and eclipse previous records for a single airline as Air India vies with domestic giant IndiGo to serve what will soon be the world’s largest population.US President Joe Biden called the agreement “historic”.The Airbus order includes 210 A320neo narrowbody planes and 40 A350 widebody aircraft, which Air India will use to fly “ultra-long routes”, Tata Chairman N Chandrasekaran said. Boeing will supply 190 737 MAX, 20 of its 787 Dreamliners and 10 mini-jumbo 777X.Together with another 25 Airbus jets to be leased to meet immediate needs, the overall acquisition reaches 495 jets, an Airbus executive said.Reuters exclusively reported in December that Air India was nearing record airplane orders approaching 500 jets.The airline’s renaissance under the Tata conglomerate aims to capitalise on India’s growing base of fliers and large diaspora across the world.New CEO Campbell Wilson, is working to revive its reputation as a world-class airline and shake off its image as a tardy, run-down operation with an ageing fleet and poor service.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted the political and economic Importance of a deal involving India’s former flag bearer.“This important deal shows, along with the deepening of relations between India and France, the successes and aspirations of the civil aviation sector in India,” Modi said.“This achievement shows that Airbus and all its French partners are fully dedicated to develop new areas of dedication with India,” Macron said during a video presentation.The aviation deal is expected to have industrial spin-offs, with Macron pledging France will work with India in other sectors.Chandrasekaran said Airbus and Tata were working on bigger partnerships, including an ambition “to bring in commercial aircraft manufacturing at some point in time in the future”. Industry sources say India has repeatedly lobbied for Airbus to add a final assembly line in the country, matching a plant in northern China, but that the planemaker has so far rejected the idea on financial and industrial grounds.Air India’s order tops American Airlines’ combined deal for 460 Airbus and Boeing planes more than a decade ago.Even after significant expected discounts, the deal would be worth tens of billions of dollars at a volatile time for plane giants whose jets are again in demand after the pandemic, but who face mounting industrial and environmental pressures.“It is Important for the industry because given the recent turbulence in the China market, the alternative growth market is India,” said independent aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.“India is also sending a strong political signal that it wants to remain attached to the West at a time when it has appeared ambiguous on Russian sanctions,” said Grabowski, a former banker with extensive experience of financing international aviation deals.The deal includes a major commercial win for engine maker CFM International, a joint venture between General Electric and France’s Safran.It has been selected to power 210 Airbus narrowbody jets ahead of rival Pratt & Whitney , while bigger planes will be powered by GE or Britain’s Rolls-Royce.British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the deal between Air India, Airbus and Rolls-Royce would create new jobs.Air India, with its maharajah mascot, was once known for its lavishly decorated planes and stellar service but its reputation declined in the mid-2000s as financial troubles mounted.The record order aims to put Air India in the league of large global airlines and make it an influential customer for planemakers and suppliers at a time when its home market is seeing a strong post-Covid-19 travel surge.

India yesterday inaugurated the first stage of its longest expressway, a route linking New Delhi and Mumbai, as it makes a concerted infrastructure push to catch up with geopolitical rival China.The ambitious $13bn project will eventually cut the road travel time between the country’s two biggest cities in half, to 12 hours.India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy and will soon be recognised as its most populous country, but its infrastructure remains decades behind that of its northern neighbour.A sign over one of the new four-lane carriageways proclaimed ‘Welcome to Delhi-Vadodara-Mumbai Expressway’ – a route that spans a total of 1,386kms.Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened the 246km first stage yesterday, linking the capital with the tourist city of Jaipur in Rajasthan.It was a “sign of developing India”, he said, adding that “such investments in railways, highways, subway lines and airports are a key to pushing the country’s growth rate, attracting more investments and creating fresh jobs”.Asia’s third-largest economy has made a renewed push to decouple itself from an increasingly assertive China’s supply chains and build up its own economic capacity since a deadly military clash on their Ladakh frontier in 2020.A wary New Delhi has expedited many key projects, and Modi’s government this month announced an unprecedented 33% increase in infrastructure spending.The Indian premier is expected to open at least a dozen major railways, highways, expressways and port projects in the next few months.India has one of the world’s largest rail networks – employing 1.3mn people – but it is badly outdated and needs huge investments in both track and rolling stock, with authorities seeking to tap private capital to do so.For its part, Beijing has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure over many years and China now boasts an extensive motorway system, gleaming airports and by far the world’s largest high-speed rail network.India’s first high-speed rail line, a $13bn Japanese-funded project linking Mumbai and Ahmedabad, remains under construction and has been hit by land acquisition and other bureaucratic bottlenecks.Harsh V Pant, a professor with King’s College London, said with China “losing some of its lustre”, Indian policymakers “feel that it is in a geopolitical and geoeconomic sweet spot which needs to be leveraged with higher infrastructure investments to make it an even more lucrative and attractive economy”.

Opec’s top official urged countries to invest much more in oil to meet the world’s future energy needs and said climate policies need to be more “balanced and fair.”“It is imperative that all parties involved in the ongoing climate negotiations pause for a moment; look at the big picture,” Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said on Sunday at an energy conference in Cairo. They must “work towards an energy transition that is orderly, inclusive and helps ensure energy security for all.”His comments come amid a shift among some Western governments and companies regarding fossil fuels. Prices for oil, natural gas and coal surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, pushing energy security to the top of the agenda for many leaders.US President Joe Biden went off-script during his State of the Union speech last week and said: “We’re going to need oil for at least another decade.” In Europe, Shell Plc signalled it will stop accelerating spending on renewable energy, while BP Plc slowed its planned reduction of oil and gas output.Opec’s al-Ghais said the oil industry had been “plagued by several years of chronic underinvestment.” It needs $500bn of investment annually until 2045, he said.The United Arab Emirates’ hosting of the COP28 climate summit in late 2023 will “serve as a fresh opportunity to explore inclusive, sustainable and consensus-based solutions to climate change,” said the secretary-general, who’s from Opec member Kuwait.The UAE, also part of Opec, has appointed Sultan al-Jaber, head of national oil and gas firm Adnoc, as president for the summit. While that’s caused some controversy, al-Jaber has said that hydrocarbon producers must be at the forefront of climate negotiations if the world is to transition to cleaner energy while also ensuring that fuel prices remain affordable.Al-Ghais reiterated that Opec and its partners — known as Opec+, the 23-nation alliance is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — are committed to keeping the oil market stable.Saudi Arabia and other core Opec members are unlikely to respond to Russia’s announcement on Friday of a production cut by pumping more, Bloomberg reported.While Moscow indicated late last year that it may reduce output as a retaliation against Western sanctions, crude prices still jumped on Friday. Brent rose 8.1% last week to $86.90 a barrel.

Cultivation in Islam is very important, for indeed all of the religion is based upon upbringing. It starts first of all with of our own selves, then of our families, and then of the community at large. But this cultivation is most important with respect to our children, so that they are brought up upon the correct path of Islam.Having children is a blessing from Allah, therefore, it is obligatory for the parents to take care of their children as the responsibility for them is upon their shoulders. As the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa salllam, said: “All of you are shepherds and are responsible for your flock...” [Al-Bukhari]The Qur’an and the Sunnah of the Prophet encourage us to bring up our children correctly; ordering us with righteousness and good conduct ourselves as well as ordering us to prevent our families from falling into that which would result in their own destruction. Allah says (which means): “O you who believe! Ward off from yourselves and your families a Fire (Hell) whose fuel is men and stones...” [Qur’an; 66:6]What follows are some practical steps towards establishing the correct cultivation of children.Seeking righteous children:When an individual wants to get married, they should have the intention to have righteous children and supplicate Allah to this effect. They should seek their children with the intention to increase the number of the Prophet’s nation, and to get Allah’s reward in this life and the Hereafter. The Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa salllam, said: “Marry those women who are loving and fertile; for verily I want to be amongst those Prophets who have the most followers on the Day of Judgment.” [Ahmad and Al-Bayhaqi]If one has the correct intention at the beginning of the action, then he will have its correct fruits at the end.Setting a Good Example:The parents should set the best example for their children. They should hasten to do that which is good and, likewise, hasten to abandon all that is evil. Children follow the example of their parents, and they love, respect and admire them. The parents are, therefore, the first and most lasting of examples for their children.Putting emphasis on Religion:Parents should consider Islam the most important affair in their life. They should raise their child to know that the most important aspect of life is being upright in religion, clinging to it firmly. Allah says (what means): “And this (submission to Allah, Islam) was enjoined by Ibraaheem upon his sons and by Ya’qoob, (saying), ‘O my sons! Allah has chosen for you the (true) religion, then die not except in the faith of Islam.” [Qur’an; 2:132]Parents should supplicate Allah to guide their children and keep them upright. Allah Says that the believers say (what means): “Our Lord! Bestow on us from our own wives and our offspring who will be the comfort of our eyes, and make us leaders for the Muttaqoon (i.e. pious and righteous persons).” [Qur’an; 25:74]Besides supplicating Allah, parents should also take the necessary steps in bringing up their children upon this religion.Showing Love and Kindness towards Children:The parent should treat his children with love and kindness, and should not always use harshness. However, if the situation requires harshness, and even hitting, then he should do so, as and when the situation requires it, but he should not make this his way (i.e. that he is always hard and harsh towards his children). We should not be like those people who are always hard upon their children as this may lead them towards further corruption and going astray.On the other hand, we should not be like those who leave their children without any discipline so that they follow whatever way they like and do whatever they want.Teaching Good Character:The parent should aim to raise his children upon good character from a young age. He should teach them the Qur’an, the history of the Prophet and that of the companions as well. One should not leave his children to continue making mistakes saying that he will correct them when they get older, because indeed it becomes increasingly more difficult to correct a person when he has grown up adopting incorrect actions and bad characteristics. As a poet once said: “Whoever grows up upon something, he grows old upon that same thing.”The Prophet used to train and bring up the children from a young age upon good manners and character. As can be seen in the Hadith of Al-Hasan in which he narrates how he once took a date from the dates of charity, and the Prophet stopped him and told him to take the date out of his mouth. The Prophet explained to him that the dates were for charity, and that charity was not allowed for the Prophet or his family.The Prophet did not leave Al-Hasan without instructing him; rather, he stopped him from continuing in what he was doing and explained to him the correct way, in kindness and wisdom.Being Just with Children:The parent should neither oppress nor wrong any of his children. He should not show one of his children due favour more so than the others, by giving him more or praising him more than any of the others. Indeed this type of favoritism can be a reason for the children swaying from the correct path and developing personal problems later on in life.Spending upon One’s Children:The parents should be generous and spend on their children. They should take the necessary steps to earn lawful money and spend on their children in a manner that is correct. Indeed, anything that one spends on his family with the correct intention will be rewarded. The Prophet said: “Two Deenaars (golden currency) which you spend by way of charity, or two Deenaars which you give to the poor, or the two Deenaars which you give to your family-indeed the greatest of these as regards reward is that Deenaar which you spend upon your family.” [Muslim]In conclusion, everyone should take care of his family, for if everyone in the society was to take care of the upbringing of their families and take care of their financial needs, then this would prove good and beneficial for the society as a whole. And if everyone were to leave the affairs of their families and their children, then this would lead to the corruption of the society, and poverty would be widespread.Article source: http://www.islamweb.net/emainpage/How to respect your parentsThere are many days set aside in non-Islamic societies to honour and appreciate special people; for example, Father’s Day, Mother’s Day, Memorial Day and Labour Day. In Islam, however, respecting, honouring and appreciating parents is not just for a single day of the year, but rather for each and every day.Parents in the Qur’an:A Muslim child should respect and appreciate his or her parents on a daily basis. Allah mentions that human beings must recognise their parents and that this is second only to the recognition of Allah Himself. Throughout the Qur’an, we notice that parents are mentioned with appreciation and respect, even if they are senile. In the Qur’an, there is a very beautiful description of how parents are to be treated; Allah Says (what means): “And your Lord has decreed that you not worship except Him, and to parents, good treatment. Whether one or both of them reach old age [while] with you, say not to them [so much as] ‘uff’ [i.e., an expression of irritation or disapproval] and do not repel them but speak to them a noble word. And lower to them the wing of humility out of mercy and say: ‘My Lord! Have mercy upon them as they brought me up [when I was] small.’” [Qur’an 17:23-24]The recognition and respect of parents is mentioned in the Qur’an 11 times; in every instance, Allah reminds children to recognise and to appreciate the love and care that they have received from their parents. One such example is when Allah says what means: “And We have enjoined upon man goodness to parents...” [Qur’an 29:8 & 46:15]1. The demand for recognising parents is made more emphatic when Allah Says (what means): “And [recall] when We took the covenant from the Children of Israel, [enjoining upon them]: ‘Do not worship except Allah; and to parents, do good...’” [Qur’an 2:83]2. Allah again emphasises in chapter An-Nisaa’ that children should be kind to their parents. He says what means: “Worship Allah and associate nothing with Him, and to parents do good...” [Qur’an 4:36]3. In Chapter Al-An’aam, Allah reemphasises that people should be kind to their parents; He says what means: “Say: ‘Come, I will recite what your Lord has prohibited to you. [He commands] that you not associate anything with Him, and to parents, good treatment...’” [Qur’an 6:151]Mothers:Although Islam recognises both parents, mothers are given particular gratitude and respect. This can be appreciated if we reflect upon the hardships and suffering that mothers experience in their lives. In this regard, there is a Hadith of the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam: It was narrated by Abu Hurairah, radhiallah ‘anhu, that a man came to the Prophet and asked him: ‘Who is most deserving of my close companionship?’ He replied: “Your mother; your mother; your mother; then your father; then the next closest to you in kinship; then the one next closest.”Islam has endorsed respect for parents by their children, even if the parents are non-Muslims. If parents strive to convert their children to non-Islamic beliefs, the children should not obey them, but must still maintain goodness towards them. In this regard, Allah says what means: “And We have enjoined upon man [care] for his parents. His mother carried him, [increasing her] in weakness upon weakness, and his weaning is two years. Be grateful to Me and your parents; to Me is the [final] destination. But if they endeavour to make you associate with Me that of which you have no knowledge, do not obey them but accompany them in [this] world with appropriate kindness and follow the way of those who turn back to Me [in repentance]. Then to Me will be your return, and I will inform you about what you used to do.” [Qur’an 31:14-15]More Respect:Islam teaches us that of the most beloved deeds to Allah, having respect for one’s parents is second only to that of prayer and is greater than that of Jihad (fighting in His cause). In this respect, Abu ‘Abdur-Rahmaan ‘Abdullaah Ibn Mas’ood, radhiallah ‘anhu, narrated the following: “I asked the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam: ‘Which deed is the most beloved to Allah?’ He replied: ‘Prayers performed on time.’ I then asked: ‘Which one is next?’ He replied: “Goodness to parents.” I then asked: ‘Which is next?’ He replied: ‘Jihad in the path of Allah.’”In Islam, respect for parents is so great that the child and his wealth are considered to be the property of the parents: ‘Aa’ishah, radhiallah ‘anha, narrated that a man came to the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, in order to resolve a dispute that he had with his father regarding a loan he had given him. The Prophet said to the man: “You and your wealth are to (i.e., the property of) your father.”Final Remarks:We hope and pray that all of us will respect our parents while they are alive and after their death. One can honour his parents after their death through the following methods:1. Performing daily Du’aa’ (supplication) for them.2. Giving charity on their behalf.3. Instituting a perpetual charity on their behalf, such as a mosque, an Islamic Centre, an Islamic library, an Islamic hospital, an orphanage, etc.4. Performing Haj on their behalf, or asking someone to do so.5. Distributing Islamic literature on their behalf.Let us pray to Allah that we do our best to respect our parents, honour them, be kind to them, assist them, and please them so that we may attain the love of Allah.Article source: http://www.islamweb.net/emainpage/

The stock rout roiling Gautam Adani’s indebted conglomerate entered a third week, with the billionaire and his family prepaying $1.11bn worth of borrowings backed by shares in a bid to restore investor confidence.Six of the group’s 10 stocks ended lower in Mumbai on Monday, with Adani Transmission Ltd and Adani Total Gas Ltd leading the losses. The meltdown since US short-seller Hindenburg Research made fraud allegations against the ports-to-power group in a January 24 report has wiped out $117bn, or almost half of the market value of its companies. Adani has repeatedly denied the claims.Worries about the conglomerate’s access to funding rose further after Bloomberg reported Saturday that Adani Enterprises Ltd, its flagship firm, has shelved a bond sale just days after it abandoned a record stock offering. S&P Global Ratings also has cut its outlook on a port operator and an electricity distributor in the group, just as some of the companies are due to release quarterly earnings this week, giving investors a chance to scrutinise the conglomerate’s financial health.The founders’ early payment of borrowings will help release 11.77mn shares in Adani Transmission Ltd and as many as 168.27mn shares of Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd, the group said in a statement on Monday. Adani Ports’ stock erased intraday declines to finish 9.3% higher, its biggest gain since April 2021. The flagship ended 0.9% lower and is now down 54% since the rout began.The ramifications of the selloff are spreading far and wide as concerns grow about the exposure that financial institutions and investors have to Adani. The tumult has disrupted parliament and India’s main opposition party is ramping up pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his silence on the issue. It staged some protests on Monday to highlight the risk to small investors.“This week turns the focus to Adani Group companies reporting earnings – and their comments on the debt sustainability,” said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “It is still necessary for Adani Group to coherently respond to the fraud allegations, and emphasise its sound financial position to restore investor confidence.”Hindenburg Research accused the group of “brazen” market manipulation and accounting fraud, claiming that a web of Adani-family controlled offshore shell entities in tax havens were used to facilitate corruption, money laundering and taxpayer theft.The conglomerate has called the report “bogus,” and threatened legal action. Adani gave a video speech last week stating that the group’s balance sheet is healthy.Indian authorities stepped in over the weekend to calm frayed nerves, saying regulators are competent enough to deal with the fallout and banks’ exposure to the group are within limits.The stock rout has cost India its place among the world’s five biggest stock markets, while the rupee is the worst-performing emerging Asian currency this year. Foreigners have pulled out $3.8bn from the nation’s equities in 2023, the most among emerging Asian markets, excluding China. Indicating investors’ persistent concerns about Adani’s debt woes, eight of the conglomerate’s 15 dollar bonds fell as of 6.26pm in Hong Kong on Monday, led by 2031 notes of Adani Ports, which fell 1.7 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. US currency debt of Adani Green Energy Ltd due in 2024 rose 1.2 cents, gaining for a second day.The group’s aggregate debt is “just about $30bn,” chief financial officer Jugeshinder Singh told news channel CNBC TV-18 in an interview aired January 30, without elaborating.Adani’s bondholders are holding initial conversations with financial advisers and lawyers to weigh their options, seeking guidance on how the group’s debt structure would be impacted under various scenarios, including the prospect for regulatory and legal redress.“Adani did have a lot of debt, so in terms of the corporate governance, there are always question marks around them,” Catherine Yeung, an investment director at Fidelity International Ltd, told Bloomberg Television Monday. “This really reiterates how, especially in emerging markets, you really have to have an understanding of companies, really going to find detail about their balance sheet.”

Bank of England (BoE) policy maker Catherine Mann waded into the Brexit debate, blaming UK’s departure from the European Union for adding to inflation.Mann, a US economist who sits on the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said there were signs that the cost-of-living crunch was beginning to turn a corner in the US and the EU — but not yet in the UK.All three regions had faced shocks to demand and supply driven by the “Covid and lockdown-induced global demand rotation and subsequent supply bottlenecks,” and the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mann said yesterday at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference in Budapest.“However, the UK has also been affected by a third type of shock which makes it unique: no other country chose to unilaterally impose trade barriers on its closest trading partners,” she added.Her comments are likely to anger some Conservative members of Parliament, who have criticised the central bank for being too pessimistic about the UK’s prospects after leaving the EU.Inflation in the UK is still at 10.5%, only marginally down from the 41-year high of 11.1% reached in October and still well above the BoE’s 2% target.In the euro area, however, the rise in the cost of living has fallen back to 8.5%, and in the US to 6.5%.Addressing inflation rates across the three regions, Mann said: “Is there a turning point already visible in the data? For the US and the euro area, yes; for the UK, maybe stabilisation.”She explained that the country was suffering from the “worst of all worlds” — Covid, the energy shock, which has been particularly severe for Europe, and an especially tight labour market which has also been seen in the US.Her downbeat comments come just days after the BoE slashed its estimate of potential output, the economy’s growth speed limit, to 0.7% for the next three years — down from 0.9% in November.Unveiling the forecasts at its latest MPC meeting last week, it also blamed a “constellation of economic shocks” including Brexit.Though the BoE does not think the economic cost of leaving the EU has grown, it said more of the impact will now come earlier.And it reiterated its predictions that the UK’s “level of productivity would be around 3.25% lower in the long run” because of its withdrawal from the EU free-trade area.Fleshing out the MPC’s forecasts, Mann said Brexit had impacted the growth trend in the UK’s potential supply.“It appears that increases in early retirement and long-term illness have reduced labour supply and Brexit has reduced trade and investment efficiencies,” she said.Mann is one of the most hawkish members of the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee and this month voted with the majority for a half-point hike in the key rate, which is now at 4%, the highest since 2008. Previously, she sought quicker hikes.Last week the BoE signalled that it is approaching the end of its tightening cycle to tackle double-digit inflation. Markets have only fully priced in one further quarter-point increase to bank rate before cuts are considered by the end of the year.However, Mann said there are few signs of a turning point for UK inflation, warning of “material upside risks” to the outlook on prices. Gilts extended a fall after Mann’s comments, with the yield on two-year bonds rising 12 basis points to 3.37%.“A tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy,” Mann said. “It is both hard to communicate and to transmit through markets to the real economy.”

Adani Enterprises Ltd has shelved a plan to raise as much as 10bn rupees ($122mn) via its first-ever public sale of bonds following a market rout, according to people familiar with the matter.The flagship firm of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s empire had planned the public note issuance for January, working with Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, AK Capital, JM Financial, and Trust Capital, Bloomberg had reported in December. But activity has now stopped, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private.The development is the latest in a sudden reversal of fortune for the conglomerate, after US-based shortseller Hindenburg Research late last month accused it of stock manipulation and accounting fraud. While the group has vigorously denied the allegations, its stock and bond prices have slumped.The turmoil last week forced Adani Enterprises to abruptly pull a record 200bn-rupee follow-on public offer of shares, and marks a stunning contrast to just a few months ago when the conglomerate was looking to raise funds to finance expansion plans. In a sign of just how prohibitively expensive any attempted debt financing for group firms could now be, the yield on an Adani Green Energy Ltd bond spiralled over 36% last week.Edelweiss declined to comment, while the other three financial firms that were on the planned Adani Enterprises note offering didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. There was no response from a spokesperson for Adani Group to an emailed request for comment.The market rout will likely reduce the group’s ability to raise money for capital expenditure projects or to refinance debt over the next year or two, according to Moody’s Investors Service.Indian watchdog tells investors markets stable despite Adani routIndia’s market regulator moved to calm investor concerns yesterday, saying that its financial markets remain stable and continue to function in a transparent and efficient manner, despite recent dramatic stock falls in Adani Group companies, reports Reuters.Shares in Adani Group firms, controlled by billionaire tycoon Gautam Adani, have dropped by $100bn, or half their market value, since US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research made allegations of stock manipulation and unsustainable debt.“During the past week, unusual price movement in the stocks of a business conglomerate has been observed,” the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) said in a statement, without naming any specific entity.The Adani Group denies all Hindenburg’s allegations, but the fall in the value of its stocks led it to call off earlier this week a $2.5bn share sale by Adani Enterprises.Mechanisms were in place to address excessive volatility in specific stocks, SEBI said, adding these were automatically triggered under certain conditions of stock price volatility.Any matters related to specific entities will be examined and appropriate action will be taken, the regulator added.Reuters earlier reported that SEBI was examining the recent crash in the Adani Group’s shares and looking into any possible irregularities. The comments follow a similar assurance from the central bank which said that the banking sector remained stable.Shares of the group’s flagship company stabilised somewhat on Friday and closed 1.4% higher, after earlier slumping 35% to hit their lowest level since March 2021.That low took its losses to nearly $33.6bn since last week, a 70% fall.Earlier on Saturday, India’s Finance Secretary TV Somanathan said that from a macroeconomic perspective, the Adani issue is a “storm in a tea cup”, while Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said regulators are independent and will take their own action.

Pope Francis yesterday urged the leaders of South Sudan to make “a new start” for peace, warning that history would remember them for their actions, as he began a three-day visit to the violence-wracked country.“The process of peace and reconciliation requires a new start,” the 86-year-old pontiff said in a speech at the presidential palace in Juba, calling for intensified efforts to end conflict in the world’s newest nation.“Future generations will either venerate your names or cancel their memory, based on what you now do,” he told an audience that included President Salva Kiir, his rival and deputy Riek Machar, as well as diplomats, religious leaders and traditional kings.Since South Sudan declared independence from Sudan in 2011, peace has eluded the impoverished country, with a five-year civil war between forces loyal to Kiir and Machar leaving 380,000 people dead and 4mn displaced.“No more bloodshed, no more conflicts, no more violence and mutual recriminations about who is responsible for it, no more leaving your people athirst for peace,” Francis said.The “pilgrimage of peace” is the first ever papal visit to South Sudan since the predominantly Christian nation gained independence from Sudan after decades of war.It follows four days in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a brutal conflict in the mineral-rich east was high on the Pope’s agenda.Crowds of people, who began lining the streets of Juba hours before the Pope’s arrival, cheered as his convoy drove along freshly tarmacked roads, with some kneeling as he waved to them.Some wore traditional clothing or the garb of religious orders, while others ululated, blew horns and whistles, and sang hymns.As well as the political leaders, the pontiff is also expected to meet victims of conflict, and church officials, between prayers and an outdoor mass that is expected to draw large crowds.The visit — Francis’s fifth to Africa — was initially scheduled for 2022 but had to be postponed because of problems with the Pope’s knee.The affliction has made him dependent on a wheelchair and has seen the itinerary pared back in both countries.The Archbishop of Canterbury and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland have also joined the Pope in South Sudan. Francis promised in 2019 to travel to South Sudan when he hosted warring leaders Kiir and Machar at a Vatican retreat and asked them to respect a hard-fought ceasefire for their people.Medical student Malek Arol Dhieu said the Pope has “laid a foundation for peace in our country”.“The Pope’s visit will cement...the peace agreement so that peace prevails in our country,” the 29-year-old said.Kiir said he hoped the visit would “push us over the line on our journey for (a) peaceful and prosperous South Sudan.”21 KILLEDBut in a sign of the challenges facing the nation, at least 21 people were killed in a cattle raid on the eve of his visit, in what authorities termed a reprisal attack in South Sudan’s state of Central Equatoria.Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged the church leaders to put pressure on South Sudan’s leadership to “address the country’s ongoing human rights crisis and widespread impunity.”“They should also press South Sudan’s leaders to take concrete steps to end attacks on civilians and to ensure accountability for serious abuses,” Mausi Segun, HRW’s Africa director, said in a statement released yesterday.At the meeting with the Pope, Kiir announced that his government was willing to enter into peace negotiations with a coalition of rebel groups, which did not sign the 2018 agreement to end the civil war.

The blockbuster January jobs report is likely to strengthen the Federal Reserve’s determination to raise interest rates above 5% and keep them high throughout the year — an outcome investors remain sceptical of.Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said policymakers expect to deliver a “couple” more interest-rate increases before putting their aggressive tightening campaign on hold, though he didn’t push back strongly against markets pricing just one more hike and cuts by the end of the year.“Such a strong employment report probably means at least two rate hikes of 25 basis points, and I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of a 50 basis-point hike returning on some Fed officials’ radar screen for the next meeting,” said Thomas Costerg, a senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management in Geneva, Switzerland. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5-4.75% this week. The smaller move followed a half-point increase in December and four jumbo-sized 75 basis-point hikes prior to that.Powell welcomed recent lower readings on inflation that have brought it down from last year’s peak. But he also voiced concern over a lack of progress in prices in the services sector outside of housing, which he has said is driven in large part by a tight labour market. The chair cited a ratio of 1:9 job openings for every unemployed worker, near a historic high. “Dust off those hawkish playbooks, again,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. “Now markets have to resuscitate the right tail of outcomes and whether the Fed has to hike above 5.1%.”Seventeen of 19 policymakers in December forecast rates rising above 5% this year and the median projection was for 5.1%, implying two more quarter-point hikes, presumably at the Fed’s meetings in March and early May, with rates staying on hold through the rest of the year. But investors, despite the hot January employment report, still see rates peaking lower — around 4.99% — followed by almost 50 basis points of cuts by end-2023.“These data call into question the market narrative that disinflationary forces will position the Fed to start cutting rates in the second half of 2023,” said Jonathan Millar, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in New York. “At a minimum, the Fed will still be inclined to message ‘higher for longer,’ but risks of a higher peak rate have risen today as well.”Nonfarm payrolls increased 517,000 last month – more than twice the expectations of Wall Street — after an upwardly revised 260,000 gain in December, a Labor Department report showed yesterday. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969 and average hourly earnings grew at a steady clip.Morgan Stanley economists led by Ellen Zentner, who had been predicting the Fed now would pause rate hikes, revised their forecast Friday to include another quarter-point increase. There’s “more upside risk if labour market data continue to move from strength to strength,” they wrote in a client note.The Fed has sought to ease wage gains to a level consistent with its 2% inflation target. The jobs report showed average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from December and were up 4.4% from a year earlier, yet the prior month was revised higher.Looking at a three month average, “wage gains have been a bit stronger,” Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights wrote in a report.Other signals on wage pressures have been more benign, including a moderation in a closely-watched quarterly measure of employment costs, which rose 1% in the fourth quarter, which was slightly less than expected.“We expect the Fed won’t take any signal from this wage data, and will await the more reliable employment cost index, due April 28, in determining its next steps,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. She estimated “the underlying pace of wage growth is still 4%-5%, substantially higher than what’s consistent with the Fed’s price target.”While the jobs figures showcase the resilience of the job market, Fed officials have said their goal is to reduce US growth to below its long-term trend to ensure price pressures are brought back down to levels that existed prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fed’s “main concern is they’re not yet seeing the impact of their tightening in the labour markets,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc, said on Bloomberg TV. “This is a reminder of what Powell tried to say, but the market wasn’t listening.”Financial conditions have eased the past few months as markets had started to price in a less aggressive Fed, even as policymakers insisted rates would stay higher for longer.

Gautam Adani’s flagship firm called off its $2.5bn share sale in a dramatic reversal yesterday as a rout sparked by a US short-seller’s criticisms wiped billions more off the value of the Indian tycoon’s stocks.The withdrawal of the Adani Enterprises share offering marks a stunning setback for Adani, the school dropout-turned-billionaire whose fortunes rose rapidly in recent years in line with stock values of his businesses.“Today the market has been unprecedented, and our stock price has fluctuated over the course of the day. Given these extraordinary circumstances, the Company’s board felt that going ahead with the issue will not be morally correct,” Adani said.“Our balance sheet is very healthy with strong cashflows and secure assets, and we have an impeccable track record of servicing our debt.This decision will not have any impact on our existing operations and future plans,” the billionaire added in a statement to Indian exchanges.Adani, whose global business interests span ports, airports, mining, cement and power, is battling to stabilise his companies and defend his reputation.“Once the market stabilises, we will review our capital market strategy,” he added.A report by Hindenburg Research last week alleged improper use by the of offshore tax havens and stock manipulation by the Adani Group.It also raised concerns about high debt and the valuations of seven listed Adani companies.The January 24 report has since triggered a $86bn erosion in market capitalisation of seven listed Adani Group companies.Adani Group has denied the allegations, saying the short-seller’s allegation of stock manipulation has “no basis” and stems from an ignorance of Indian law.The group has always made the necessary regulatory disclosures, it added.Adani Group was working with its bankers to refund the proceeds received by in the secondary share sale of Adani Enterprises.Anchor investors who had supported the issue included Maybank Securities and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.The company aims to protect the interests of its investing community by returning the proceeds, it said.Adani Group had on Tuesday mustered enough support from investors for the share sale to proceed, in what some saw as a stamp of investor confidence amid the storm.But after a brief respite, the selloff in Adani Group stocks and bonds resumed yesterday, with shares in Adani Enterprises plunging 28% and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone dropping 19%, the worst day on record for both.The fundraising was critical for Adani, not just because it would have helped cut his group’s debt, but also because it was being seen by some as a gauge of confidence as he faced the biggest business and reputational challenge of his career.Yesterday’s stock losses saw Adani slip to 15th on the Forbes rich list with an estimated net worth of $75.1bn, below rival Mukesh Ambani, the chairman of Reliance Industries who ranks ninth with a net worth of $83.7bn.The share sale had succeeded on Tuesday even when the Adani Enterprises stock price in Mumbai markets traded below the offer price of the share sale.“I do not know how the markets will behave in short term. But this is a measure to enhance (Adani’s) reputation since the investors were staring at a 30% loss even before the shares were allotted,” said Rajesh Baheti, chief executive, Crossseas Capital Services, an algo trading firm.

LuLu Financial Holding managing director Adeeb Ahmed yesterday termed India’s federal budget as balanced and said it took into account the aspirations of India’s youth as well as micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).“The Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has checked several boxes” and it is balanced with equal focus on traditional and emerging sectors, he said, adding that, “the way forward is to build a technology and knowledge-based economy.”As India navigates a period of global economic shocks, the country’s economic resilience has managed to hold steady; youth and MSMEs, two foundational strengths of the country have been part of this growth story, he said.With the UN declaring 2023 as International Year of Millets, he applauded the efforts of the government to raise global awareness about India’s millet farmers, as well as provision schemes in the budget to make India a hub for millet production and research.On financial inclusion, Ahmed – who has significant investments in India’s financial services sector in the form of LuLu Forex and LuLu Finserv, a non-banking finance company (NBFC) providing micro loans – said the move to ramp up the credit guarantee scheme for MSMEs will give a fillip to enabling faster access to financial services.The decision to expand the scope of services in DigiLocker to include MSMEs and make PAN (permanent account number) a common identifier, will give a big boost to user documentation, supporting the onboarding efforts of NBFCs and fintechs driving financial inclusion among such companies, according to him.Ahmed, who also has investments in the travel and luxury hospitality sector, felt that the proposal to adopt an integrated and innovative approach to develop destinations augurs well for the tourism sector.“It is encouraging to note that under the Swadesh Darshan and Dekho Apna Desh schemes, the government will be rolling out physical initiatives such as the Unity Mall to raise the global profile of GI products as well as virtual assets to enhance the experience of domestic and international travellers in some of the top destinations,” he said.“The proposal to develop the tourism sector through the convergence of public and private stakeholders will surely help generate adequate employment opportunities. The proposal to open 50 new airports will further drive more inbound traffic and add to the overall economic prospects of the sector,” he added.Finding that tourism is already one of the highest generators of employment in the country but suffers from high operating expenses and low margins, he said it would have been beneficial to also relook the existing GST (goods and services tax) rates, apart from rolling out sector-specific schemes to encourage domestic and foreign investment into the sector.He also acknowledged the budget’s focus on skill development under the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) 4.0 and setting up of 30 Skill India international centres, many of who can add immense value in service-based sectors.LuLu Financial Holdings has been an active participant in the upskilling of India’s youth, having partnered last year with NSDC International, a newly formed subsidiary of National Skill Development Corporation of India, for the latter’s Project Tejas to train, certify and place 10,000 Indian workers and professionals internationally.

Pakistan is gripped by a major economic crisis, with the rupee plummeting, inflation soaring and energy in short supply as International Monetary Fund officials visit to discuss a vital cash injection.Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for months held out against the tax rises and subsidy slashing demanded by the IMF, fearful of backlash ahead of elections due in October.But in recent days, with the prospect of national bankruptcy looming and no friendly countries willing to offer less painful bailouts, Islamabad has started to bow to pressure.The government loosened controls on the rupee to rein in a rampant black market in US dollars, a step that caused the currency to plunge to a record low.Artificially cheap petrol prices have also been hiked.“We’re at the end of the road. The government has to make the political case to the public for meeting these (IMF) demands,” former World Bank economist Abid Hasan told AFP.Time is of the essence, with Nasir Iqbal from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics warning the economy had already “virtually collapsed” due to mismanagement and political turmoil.The IMF delegation arrived on Tuesday to a nation in panic.The world’s fifth-biggest population has less than $3.7bn in the state bank — enough to cover just three weeks of imports.It is no longer issuing letters of credit, except for essential food and medicines, causing a backlog of thousands of shipping containers at Karachi port stuffed with stock the country can no longer afford.Industry has been hammered by the imports block and massive rupee devaluation.Public construction projects have halted, textiles factories have partially shut down and domestic investment has slowed.In downtown Karachi, dozens of day labourers including carpenters and painters wait with their tools on display for work that never comes.Pakistan is struggling on many fronts, with the country reeling from unprecedented floods that submerged a third of its territory last summer and a deteriorating security situation near the Afghanistan border.Pakistan is locked in an endless cycle of servicing external debt.State Bank governor Jamil Ahmed last month said the country owed $33bn in loans and other foreign payments before the end of the fiscal year in June.A diplomatic offensive has seen $4bn rolled over by lending nations, with $8.3bn still on the negotiating table.Meanwhile, Pakistan is battling severe energy shortages — with capacity drained by poor infrastructure and mismanagement — compounding the misery of businesses and citizens.Last week the whole country was plunged into a day-long blackout because of a fault in the national grid that followed a cost-cutting measure.State Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik told reporters in Islamabad that imports of Russian oil would start in April, paid for in currencies of “friendly countries” in a mutually beneficial deal.The tumbling economy mirrors the country’s political chaos, with former prime minister Imran Khan heaping pressure on the ruling coalition in his bid for early elections while his popularity remains high.Khan, who was ousted last year in a no-confidence motion, negotiated a multi-billion-dollar loan package from the IMF in 2019.But he reneged on promises to cut subsidies and market interventions that had cushioned the cost-of-living crisis, causing the programme to stall.It is a common pattern in Pakistan, where most people live in rural poverty, with more than two dozen IMF deals brokered and then broken over the decades.“Even if Pakistan avoids default, the underlying structural factors that triggered the current crisis — one exacerbated by poor leadership and external global shocks — will still be in place,” tweeted political analyst Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “Barring difficult, large-scale reforms, the next crisis could be just around the corner.”

S&P Global Ratings said yesterday that rapid credit growth in Saudi Arabia has reduced banking liquidity and it was unclear whether the government would boost deposits with the banking system to lessen pressure.While corporate lending is seen picking up due to projects linked to the “Vision 2030” agenda to diversify away from oil, “funding availability will likely be a constraint for the first time in a while,” S&P said in its Saudi Banking Sector 2023 Outlook.Credit growth, which rose rapidly in the low-interest rate era, is seen slowing, along with mortgage loan growth, amid rising rates and as the market saturates.The Saudi banking sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 102% in the third quarter of 2022 from 85% at the end of 2018, “owing to lagging deposit growth, mostly from the private sector,” S&P said, noting that term deposits barely increased in that period due to low interest rates.“At the same time, Saudi investors have been increasingly investing in foreign stocks,” the ratings agency said, estimating that the $600bn sovereign Public Investment Fund may have accounted for 25-40% of those outflows.The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) made liquidity injections during the pandemic as well as last year to help avoid a credit crunch and support economic activity, S&P said.“As a result, the system reached a structural liquidity deficit in mid-year 2022, with borrowings from SAMA exceeding placements with it.”The government has kept deposits at SAMA rather than placing them with commercial banks, S&P said.“In 2023, SAMA will continue extending tenors for its support packages and other facilities to avoid a credit crunch - and possibly increase the volume of support - while encouraging banks to attract private sector deposits,” S&P said.While S&P has a positive outlook on most Saudi banks, mirroring the outlook on the sovereign, it sees profitability rising less than expected as customers shift to term deposits from current and savings accounts, further pressuring lenders’ margins.

Turkiye’s annual inflation should drop to 53.5% in January even as prices continue jumping on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll yesterday that also showed inflation will end the year at 41%, much higher than official expectations.Inflation has been stoked by a currency crisis at the end of 2021 and it touched a 24-year peak of 85.51% in October.It fell sharply in December due to a base effect and a similar drop is expected in January.The surge in prices in the same period last year spells relief for this year’s annual inflation calculation early this year, but economist see the drop slowing.They forecast inflation to end 2023 at nearly twice the 22.3% rate that the central bank forecasts, potentially extending cost-of-living strains.The median estimate of 13 economists in a Reuters poll for annual inflation in January stood at 53.5%, a sharp drop from 64.27% in December.Forecasts ranged between 51.2% and 56.65%.On a monthly basis the median estimate was 3.8%, in a range of 2.30-5.95%. The sharp expected monthly rise is due to a raft of administered new-year price hikes including for public transit, tobacco products, services, as well as rising food prices.Despite soaring prices, the central bank has taken the unorthodox step of slashing its policy rate to 9% from 19% since late 2021.It said its most recent series of cuts, late last year, was meant to address an economic slowdown.On Thursday, central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu said no basis remains for sharp price hikes in Turkiye.He also stood by his previous estimate that inflation will drop to 22.3% by the end of the year.But the median estimate of 10 economists for inflation at year-end stood at 41% in the Reuters poll, with forecasts coming in between 30% and 48%.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic plan aims to achieve price stability by slashing borrowing costs, boosting exports and flipping chronic current account deficits to surpluses.But the rate cuts sparked a late-2021 currency crash, which saw the lira lose 44% versus the dollar that year and another 30% in 2022, stoking inflation.The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce January inflation data on February 3.

Germany’s economy unexpectedly shrank at the end of 2022 due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine, official data showed Monday, adding to worries it could be on the brink of recession.Europe’s top economy contracted 0.2% in the October to December period compared to the previous quarter, according to preliminary figures from statistics authority Destatis.Analysts from financial data firm Factset had been expecting zero growth, while Destatis said earlier this month the economy stagnated in the fourth quarter.For the whole of 2022, the German economy grew 1.8%, the data showed, a revision from an earlier figure of 1.9%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and subsequent move to slash crucial gas supplies, triggered an energy crisis in industrial powerhouse Germany, and sent food and electricity costs soaring.But after massive government interventions, signs had improved recently and expectations grew that the German economy might avoid a recession after all.Monday’s disappointing data, however, dented those hopes.“Recession fears are back,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski. “The warmer winter weather, along with implemented and announced government fiscal stimulus packages, have prevented the economy from falling off a cliff, but a technical recession is still a likely outcome.”A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the data “pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the eurozone and suggests that a technical recession in both Germany and the eurozone as a whole is more likely than not after all”. Germany was, however, likely to avoid a “deep downturn,” she said.“That’s thanks to generous government energy support, the recent fall in gas prices, and backlogs of orders supporting activity in some industrial sectors,” Palmas said.After Russia invaded Ukraine, Berlin raced to find new energy sources, and unveiled a €200bn ($218bn) support package to cushion consumers and businesses, including a cap on electricity and gas prices.Destatis said that a fall in consumer spending, which supported the economy in the first three quarters of 2022, had hit GDP in the final months of the year.This suggests the energy crisis was starting to hit household incomes, Palmas said.The government has nevertheless struck a more optimistic tone lately, with an official forecast last week predicting that Germany would dodge a recession with growth of 0.2% for 2023 as a whole.A few months earlier, they had predicated it would contract by 0.4%. Earlier this month, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany would avoid a painful recession this year.Lower energy prices have also helped bring down inflation from a peak of 10.4% in October, with officials expecting the trend to continue.

Italian energy company Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) signed an $8bn gas production deal yesterday aimed at boosting energy supplies to Europe despite the insecurity and political chaos in the North African country.The deal, signed during a visit to Tripoli by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, aims to increase gas output for the Libyan domestic market as well as exports, through the development of two offshore gas fields.Output will begin in 2026 and reach a plateau of 750mn cubic feet per day, Eni said in a statement.“This agreement will enable important investments in Libya’s energy sector, contributing to local development and job creation while strengthening Eni’s role as a leading operator in the country,” said its chief executive, Claudio Descalzi.Meloni met Libya’s Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, head of the internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli for talks that also focused on migration across the Mediterranean.At a joint news conference with Descalzi, the NOC chief, Farhat Bengdara, said the gas deal had a duration of 25 years and called it the most important new investment in Libya’s energy sector for a quarter of a century.European countries have increasingly sought to replace Russian gas with energy supplies from North Africa and elsewhere over the past year because of the war in Ukraine.Italy has already taken a lead in sourcing gas from Algeria, building a new strategic partnership there that includes investment to help state energy company Sonatrach reverse years of declining output.However, agreements struck in Tripoli may be undermined by Libya’s internal conflict, which has divided the country between rival factions who vie for control of government and dispute each other’s claims to political legitimacy.Underscoring the uncertainty, Dbeibah’s own Oil Minister Mohamed Oun has rejected any deal that NOC might strike with Italy, saying in a video on the ministry website that such agreements should be made by the ministry.Eni’s Descalzi said the agreement will also entail a carbon capture facility and solar power.NOC chief Bengdara was appointed last year by Dbeibah, whose own interim government was installed in 2021 through a UN-backed process.The eastern-based parliament and factions that support it said early last year that the government was no longer legitimate, rejecting both the appointment of Bengdara and deals that Tripoli has struck with foreign states.Chaos in Libya since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted autocrat Muammar Gaddafi has left much of the country in the hands of armed factions.In statements to the press Dbeibah and Meloni said they had also discussed illegal migration from Libya to Italy, a subject that Rome’s right-wing leader had made central to her political campaigning during her rise to power.Italy will support Libya by providing new search and rescue ships, Dbeibah said.Insecurity and lawlessness has made Libya a major, albeit dangerous, route for migrants seeking to reach Europe, often via Italy.Hundreds of migrants die each year attempting to make the journey.Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi, who oversees the migration issue for Rome, accompanied Meloni to Libya, as well as Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.