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The United Arab Emirates edged out Cameroon to host the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s 2024 ministerial conference, the largest global gathering of trade ministers.The meeting, scheduled in Abu Dhabi for the week of February 26, 2024, will come at a critical time for a slowing global economy that’s reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an ongoing pandemic, and a simmering trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Cameroon will host the next such meeting, the WTO said yesterday.WTO ministerial meetings are generally held biennially and often provide political impetus to advance international trade negotiations.For the UAE, hosting the meeting is part of its own push to position itself as a global hub for business amid growing competition in the Middle East. It has been rolling out bilateral trade deals with fast-growing markets since the pandemic. Next year the Gulf Arab state will host COP28, the UN’s Climate Change conference.The top priority for the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference, known as MC13, will be reaching an agreement to reform the trade body’s hobbled dispute settlement system and modernising its 27-year-old rulebook.Most nations want to restore the WTO’s appellate body — a sort of supreme court for trade — which the US crippled in 2019, citing systemic problems with the way its members settle trade disputes.MC13 will also provide a forum for WTO members to complete the unfinished work of their 2022 ministerial conference, which produced an agreement to water down patent protections for Covid-19 vaccines and a deal to curb harmful fishery subsidies.

The highest interest rates in 15 years are delaying home dreams, putting business plans on ice and forcing many Americans to agree to loan terms that would have been unimaginable just nine months ago.Most of all, the surge in borrowing costs is punishing the cash-poor. And it’s about to get worse as the Federal Reserve carries on with its anti-inflation campaign and keeps hiking rates next year.“Consumers who weren’t able to make ends meet are just digging themselves a deeper and deeper hole with the higher interest rates,” said Philip Cornell, economist at the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, which focuses on research about middle- and lower-income families.As the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hike cycle in a generation filters through the US economy, the gap is widening between the haves and the have-nots. Even without a recession, households and businesses are feeling the financial pain.Here’s a look at pockets of the economy that are bearing the brunt of the impact.Housing in holding pattern: Manda Waits from Suwanee, Georgia, feels lucky that she and her husband bought their townhouse near Atlanta a year ago with a 3% loan — less than half of where mortgage rates are now.To trim expenses amid soaring consumer prices, the couple recently bought a freezer and stocked it with a quarter cow sourced from an agricultural school. But they shelved their plan to upgrade to a single-family home for the time being.“We would like to buy some land to build on, but these rates aren’t making it attractive, so we are in a holding pattern,” said Waits, who receives disability benefits. Even in the once red-hot market of Tampa, Florida, a few people showing up at an open house is now considered a good day. “People are just waiting on the sidelines,” said Rae Anna Conforti, a realtor with Re/Max Alliance Group.As mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2001 this year, real estate agents suddenly found themselves hunting for clients again — if not losing their jobs. Thousands of mortgage employees have already been laid off at lenders including Wells Fargo & Co and JPMorgan Chase & Co.The higher rates, coupled with a surge in home values during the pandemic, pushed the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced house to more than $2,000, up from about $1,100 just before Covid-19 hit.‘Vicious circle’: The widening gap between the cash-rich and the cash-strapped is playing out at car dealerships across the nation. The former are paying more upfront, while the latter are stuck with high-rate auto loans that will leave them underwater — or forced to settle for cheaper and less reliable vehicles.Almost one in three car buyers are now taking out six- to seven-year loans on used vehicles to help lower monthly payments.When consumers are locked for so long, the outstanding balance quickly exceeds a used car’s value, said Oren Weintraub, whose California-based service helps consumers negotiate better prices with dealers for a fee. When they buy their next car, that balance will get tacked onto to the new loan.“It’s a vicious cycle,” he said.Matt Tambornini was hoping to take out a car loan to build his credit history. The 22-year-old, who lives near Knoxville, Tennessee, with his parents, figured he’d be in a position to buy a house when mortgage rates eventually come down.His plan stumbled when a local car dealership offered a 23% loan rate and a 60-month term, a deal that would’ve had him paying thousands more than he wanted.He bought the car anyway, quickly got buyer’s remorse and returned it for a refund.For now, he’s driving a 15-year-old pick-up he bought with cash. “It seems like everything is just unaffordable,” Tambornini said.Soaring credit debt: Interest rates on credit cards that averaged 16.3% at the beginning of the year have climbed to just over 19%, according to Bankrate.com, the highest level in data going back to 1985. That’s a massive increase especially for lower-income consumers, who may be making the minimum payment and carrying a balance for 20 years, said Scott Sanborn, chief executive officer of LendingClub Corp.“I don’t think consumers have fully internalised yet how much their cost of living has actually increased,” Sanborn said.The surge in APRs to historical highs isn’t affecting consumers the same way. It makes no difference to those who pay off their balances monthly — many don’t even notice the rate increases — but it’s hitting those who are falling behind.Mike Lauretti, 24, has about $12,000 in debt on four cards, as well as car, student and private debt.The high school social worker, who lives near Hartford, Connecticut, is working on paying off the card with the smallest amount first before moving to the next — known as the snowball method. He also took an extra job as a coach of the girls basketball team to supplement his income.“I am using the snowball method to pay off the cards first and then it’ll eventually lead to me paying the private loan,” the largest, he said.American consumers will end the year with about $110bn more in credit-card debt than they started with, which would be close to an annual record, according to WalletHub, an online personal finance data firm.The reality may hit next year, when many economists predict the US will enter a recession. Household debt delinquencies are still well below their end of 2019 levels, but they’re picking up. “We expect delinquencies to continue to increase, with new credit-card and auto delinquencies reaching pre-pandemic levels in the first half of next year,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

British retailers are drumming up new credit offers to encourage shoppers to spend more during one of the most challenging Christmas periods for business in years.For the first time in a decade, department store John Lewis Partnership Plc, a favourite of middle-class Britons, has lowered the threshold for interest-free loans to £500 ($608) from £1,000. High Street mainstays Marks & Spencer Group Plc and Currys Plc are also offering more attractive financing options to tempt shoppers into splurging, and Frasers Group Plc is planning to launch a credit product as well.“Credit has come into its own in the cost-of-living crisis,” said Alex Baldock, chief executive officer of electronics seller Currys.While retailers have always provided financing, the flurry of new offers — including interest-free proposals that cost the shops more to fund — indicate how hard-fought this Christmas will be. With inflation at a four-decade high and energy bills set to surge, consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending.Retailers need to drive sales and cash flow during the festive period to help them shoulder their own cost burden as large rent, wage, tax and stock bills loom in January.Critics warn stores are urging shoppers to take on more debt at a dangerous time. The UK is in a recession and real incomes are falling, making it harder to repay borrowings. About 30% of British consumers are already depending on loans and Buy Now, Pay Later programmes to fund Christmas this year, according to a survey by e-commerce agency RVS Media.“There’s a risk of people piling borrowing on top of borrowing,” said Matthew Upton, director of policy at charity Citizens Advice. “As living costs spiral, the number of people who will see credit as the answer will grow, showing just how much people are struggling to get by.”Unregulated Buy Now, Pay Later arrangements — point-of-sale financing that allows shoppers to make purchases and pay at a future date, often without interest — are particularly dangerous, according to Labour MP Stella Creasy, who is campaigning for regulation of the industry. “Many end up spending more than they meant to by using it. I’m urging retailers not to offer it.”There are clear signs shoppers are borrowing more, and not just on Christmas gifts. The average size of an Iceland Foods loan has increased to about £70 from £55 earlier in the year as consumers feel the pinch, according to Fair for You, the not-for-profit consumer lender partnering with Iceland. The grocer’s micro loans, which let customers pay for food in instalments, are so popular that last week 4,000 loans were issued on a single day, amounting to more than £250,000.Consumers borrowed £400mn on credit cards in October, up from £100mn the month before, according to Bank of England data. The growth rate in consumer credit reached 7.2% in September, the highest since March 2019.More and more retailers are providing a range of credit options, partly because it often leads to bigger basket sizes, said Peter Hewlett, fintech leader at PwC.Frasers is preparing to launch its own regulated Buy Now, Pay Later platform, Frasers Plus, in coming months, along with a loyalty scheme across the group. Shoppers, for example, will be able to gain rewards at Sports Direct and spend them at Flannels, CEO Michael Murray said in a phone interview.M&S is planning to extend its regulated digital credit account to be used in its stores by Spring. Currently customers using Sparks Pay can spend as much as £500 interest-free on the app or website.Rising interest rates mean offering interest-free credit doesn’t come cheaply for retailers. Stores are paying more to firms like Novuna and Barclays Partner Finance, who receive a slice of each sale in exchange for providing the consumer credit.The key question is whether more consumers are defaulting. The answer appears to be not yet.Next Plc, which has a major regulated finance arm, said in September that customer defaults are below pre-Covid levels and shoppers are paying down more of their balance each month than before. But The Very Group, which has always offered flexible financing as part of its business, set aside an extra £5mn in October “for prudence” in case defaults rise.“When times are straitened, the majority of folks will shop around for affordability,” said Clive Black, a retail analyst at Shore Capital. “Those retailers who have capability for safe and reliable credit will probably capture market share.”

Indonesian bonds have outperformed most of their emerging Asian peers in 2022 and a number of investors are betting that will be the case for next year too.The nation’s debt may benefit from foreign inflows attracted by one of the highest real yields in the region and the prospect that interest-rate hikes are nearing their peak, according to William Blair Investment Management. JPMorgan Asset Management is overweight on Indonesia, while DBS Bank Ltd sees the country’s bonds outpacing their regional counterparts. “Indonesian bonds are relatively attractive compared to emerging Asian peers, with higher real yields than the likes of India and Thailand,” said Johnny Chen, a money manager at William Blair Investment in Singapore. “As inflationary pressures dissipate in the US and the Fed slows the pace of hikes, the rupiah will likely benefit from portfolio flows.”Indonesia’s debt — considered one of the bellwethers for global emerging markets — is gaining attraction as the central bank is seen nearing its terminal rate, while policy makers in the US are expected to keep tightening for some time. Relatively high yields and a law seeking to expand the central bank’s mandate to buy government bonds in times of crisis may also bolster the Asian nation’s securities. Indonesia’s bonds have done better than most of their regional peers in 2022 in what has been a difficult year for global debt markets. The securities delivered a loss of 5.9% for dollar-based investors, behind only Malaysia and China in emerging Asia. Bonds in Taiwan, the Philippines and South Korea all slid more than 10%.Rupiah bonds are likely to keep attracting inflows as they offer some of the highest real yields in the region, according to DBS Bank, which expects foreign inflows of $3bn to $7bn next year.Indonesian debt may also benefit amid light positioning after overseas investors trimmed their holdings by about $7.5bn this year, a record outflow in data compiled by Bloomberg starting in 2010. Global funds have already started returning, snapping up $1.5bn of the securities in November and about the same in December so far. “The technical picture of the Indonesian bond market is also cleaner as foreign exposure has collapsed over the course of the last couple of years and positioning is far from heavy,” said Kenneth Akintewe, head of Asian sovereign debt at abrdn in Singapore. “A potential recovery in EM flows would likely strongly benefit Indonesian rates and FX,” he said. “A lot can still go wrong, FX volatility remains elevated and yields are some ways away from the cheaper levels seen in October so investors still have to tread carefully.”Indonesia’s 10-year bond yields fell by 60 basis points in November, the biggest decline in four years, as inflation slowed and traders bet Bank Indonesia will slow its pace of rate hikes. They have still climbed more than 50 basis points in 2022. “Just reducing underweights can move these markets quite significantly,” said Lin Jing Leong, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in Singapore. “With Indonesia being more high yielding than all other Asian markets, it tends to be the first one that investors re-enter, and reform fundamentals are quite positive.”

Russia’s central bank delivered its strongest warning yet that the Kremlin’s call-up of men to fight in Ukraine is leaving the economy deprived of workers and could put pressure on inflation, as it left interest rates unchanged for a second meeting.Policymakers kept their benchmark at 7.5%, in line with the unanimous forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rouble maintained losses after the announcement and traded 0.4% weaker against the dollar in Moscow.The mobilisation of 300,000 men, combined with a massive exodus of Russians it triggered, has made labour scarce at a time when unemployment is already near the lowest ever and the population is shrinking. The central bank said “the capacity to expand production in the Russian economy is largely limited by the labour market conditions.”Speaking after the decision in Moscow, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the central bank was sending a “neutral signal” about what it plans to do next and that its future decisions will be “data-dependent.”“Due to a growing shortage of personnel, companies’ labour costs are increasing,” Nabiullina said. “This is evident among firm operating in industry, transport, logistics and construction. If wages grow at a rate higher than labour productivity, this may lead to an additional increase in prices through business costs.”The decision caps a year that included a steep monetary easing cycle that more than reversed an emergency hike after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Encouraged by a steep deceleration in consumer prices, the central bank has been in a rush to unwind the unprecedented measures imposed after the invasion in late February as the economy lurched into crisis under the strain of sanctions from the US and its allies. “The Bank of Russia’s message is a replay of its October guidance: inflation is moderate for now, but military mobilisation and a breach of the budget spending freeze could lift it in months ahead. This does not indicate an imminent hike in coming months, but policy rates will likely rise if the government continues to surprise with higher spending,” says Alexander Isakov, Russia economist. Before October, policymakers delivered 12.5 percentage points of easing in six steps to bring rates below their pre-war level. Since peaking near an annual 18% in April, inflation has slowed to around 12%, or near the low end of the central bank’s year-end forecast. Price expectations, a key factor for policymakers, dropped in November for the first time in four months. Although inflation could even fall below the central bank’s target of 4% next spring, Nabiullina said the focus will be on figures adjusted for one-off factors. Policymakers on Friday kept their forecast for price growth in 2023 at 5%-7%.“Current consumer prices are growing at a moderate rate, and consumer demand is subdued,” they said in a statement. “At the same time, pro-inflation risks are up and prevail over disinflationary risks.”But it’s the threats ahead that will increasingly dominate the agenda for Nabiullina, who’s previously signalled that looser fiscal policy is becoming a worry. “The tone of the comment has changed somewhat,” said Olga Nikolaeva, senior analyst at ITI Capital in Moscow. “Over the short-term horizon, the regulator has increased its emphasis on pro-inflationary risks.”The Finance Ministry, which was forecasting a full-year budget shortfall of 0.9% of gross domestic product, now expects the deficit to reach 2% as revenues fall and expenditure rises for the war effort.Alongside higher government spending, the call-up — announced nearly three months ago — poses risks for inflation by straining the labour market. As a result of the mobilisation and the wave of emigration that followed, the male labour pool may decline by 2%.That’s among the main reasons that Bloomberg Economics now puts Russia’s potential economic growth rate at just 0.5% — or half its pre-war level. The rouble has meanwhile turned weaker as the current-account surplus — for months a major reason behind the currency’s strength — has started to fade.The budget may also come under pressure from new restrictions on Russian oil exports as geopolitical risks show little sign of easing.

Saudi Aramco has started talks with potential backers for its $110bn Jafurah gas development, according to people familiar with the matter, as the oil producer plans to exploit one of the world’s largest unconventional gas fields.The state-controlled company is seeking equity investors that could help fund the development of midstream and downstream projects at Jafurah in the east of the kingdom, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.Aramco has reached out to private equity firms and other large funds that invest in infrastructure as part of the plans, which could offer stakes in assets such as carbon capture and storage projects, pipelines and hydrogen plants, the people said.Investment bank Evercore Inc is advising Aramco on the plans, the people said. Talks are still at an early stage and details of the funding could change, the people said. A representative for Aramco declined to comment, while a spokesperson for Evercore didn’t have an immediate comment.The war in Ukraine has led to a frantic surge in demand for natural gas, led by European nations that traditionally got their supplies from Russia. This has led to Gulf states embarking on ambitious plans to expand their gas output. Some companies have also look to boost their exposure, with Eni SpA considering a takeover of explorer Neptune Energy Group Ltd, Bloomberg News has reported.Jafurah is a key part of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to diversify its energy exports beyond oil. The field is estimated to hold 200tn cubic feet of raw gas, and Aramco expects to begin production there in 2025, reaching about 2bn standard cubic feet per day of sales by 2030.A large portion of the gas produced there will be used to create so-called blue hydrogen, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said last year. The process is where emissions associated with hydrogen production are captured and stored in the kingdom, allowing the fuel to then be exported as a clean energy source. The opening up of the Jafurah development to external investors would follow years of efforts to attract foreign capital into Aramco and some of its key assets. After a $30bn initial public offering in 2019, the oil giant sold stakes in units that operate its network of oil and gas pipelines around the kingdom. The deals have raised about $28bn for the company.

Air India is close to placing landmark orders for as many as 500 jetliners worth tens of billions of dollars from both Airbus and Boeing as it carves out an ambitious renaissance under the Tata Group conglomerate, industry sources said on Sunday.The orders include as many as 400 narrow-body jets and 100 or more wide-bodies, including dozens of Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s and 777s, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity as finishing touches are placed on the mammoth deal in coming days.Such a deal could top $100bn dollars at list prices, including any options, and rank among the biggest by a single airline in volume terms, overshadowing a combined order for 460 Airbus and Boeing jets from American Airlines over a decade ago.Even after significant expected discounts, the deal would be worth tens of billions of dollars and cap a volatile year for an industry whose jets are back in demand after the pandemic but which is facing mounting industrial and environmental pressures.Airbus and Boeing declined to comment.Tata Group-owned Air India did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The potential order comes days after Tata announced the merger of Air India with Vistara, a joint-venture with Singapore Airlines, to create a bigger full-service carrier and strengthen its presence in domestic and international skies.That deal gives Tata a fleet of 218 aircraft, cementing Air India as the country’s largest international carrier and second largest in the domestic market after leader IndiGo.Air India, with its maharajah mascot, was once known for its lavishly decorated planes and stellar service but its reputation declined in the mid-2000s as financial troubles mounted.Founded by JRD Tata in 1932, Air India was nationalised in 1953.Tata regained control in January and has since been working to revive its reputation as a world-class airline.The planned order reflects a deliberate strategy to win back a solid share of traffic flows to and from India, which are currently dominated by foreign carriers.Air India also wants to win a bigger share of regional international traffic and the domestic market, setting up a battle on both fronts with IndiGo. Delivered over at least a decade, the 500 jets would both replace and expand fleets in the world’s fastest-growing airline market, while contributing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of expanding the economy to $5tn.

Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product expanded an annual 8.8% in the third quarter, keeping the oil-rich kingdom on track to be the fastest-growing among the Group of 20 economies this year.The final figure was slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of 8.6% due to further expansion in the non-oil economy, data from the General Authority for Statistics showed on Sunday. All sectors displayed positive annual growth.Saudi Arabia has previously said it anticipates full-year economic growth of 8.5%, as well as its first budget surplus in nearly a decade.The figures suggest a measure of success in Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s drive to diversify and open up the economy of the world’s largest crude exporter, ambitions that partly hinge on Saudi Arabia’s ability to secure more capital from overseas.Oil-related GDP grew 14.2% in the third quarter, less than the 14.5% estimate, while the non-oil economy — the engine of job creation — grew 6%, compared to an anticipated 5.6%.Foreign direct investment has increased steadily since the transformation plan was announced more than half a decade ago, but much of it is still pumped into fossil fuels.All the same, business activity in the non-oil economy has been on a recent tear, expanding at the fastest pace in more than seven years in November as new order growth accelerated and businesses became more optimistic.The kingdom last week also revised upward its forecast for next year’s budget surplus from projections made just three months ago, signalling confidence its revenues will hold up despite oil-market jitters and fears of a global slowdown. Saudi Arabia expects its economy to expand 3.1% in 2023.

A security guard who suffered a fall injury while on duty at Lusail Stadium is in a stable but critical condition, the Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy (SC) has said."On Saturday, December 10, a security guard at Lusail Stadium suffered a serious fall while on duty. Stadium medical teams immediately attended the scene and provided emergency treatment before he was transferred to Hamad medical hospital's intensive care unit via ambulance," the SC said in a statement on social media.The guard remains in a stable but critical condition, the SC informed. "Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family during this time, and we wish him a speedy recovery."The Host Country is investigating the circumstances leading to the fall as a matter of urgency, the statement noted, adding that the guard will continue to get his salary in full while receiving medical care.

Al Kass TV photojournalist Khalid al-Misslam passed away, the channel said.Al-Misslam, a Qatari, died suddenly while covering the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. “We believe in Allah’s mercy and forgiveness for him, and send our deepest condolences to his family. We are all Allah’s and to Him we return.”

Nasdaq Inc won approval to expand the limits on capital raises in direct listings in an effort to encourage more companies to go public using them, with New York Stock Exchange soon to follow.The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved Nasdaq’s request earlier this month and is expected to do the same for NYSE’s proposal, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information.Representatives for NYSE and the SEC declined to comment. “Once we see the new issue markets open, this will be much more topical in terms of being an alternative,” Karen Snow, senior vice-president and head of US listings and revenue at Nasdaq, said in an interview. “This is a silver bullet, because you now have the option to issue primary, not just secondary shares.”The revised rules on both exchanges could make direct listings more appealing to companies as an alternative to traditional initial public offerings. The changes will allow companies to raise more money in a direct listing, as well as garner wider investor participation.Nasdaq and NYSE already allow a company to raise money in a direct listing, but only if the shares are sold in the range stated in the company’s registration statement. This has proved too limiting and presents too high of a risk of a failed offering. As a result, no companies have raised capital in a direct listing to date.“We’ve removed the friction with this solution and you will see large and small companies using it on a more regular basis going forward,” Snow said.The new Nasdaq rule will allow a company to sell shares in the opening auction on the exchange at a price outside of the range in their registration statement — up to 20% below and 80% above. It will also require that the company listing securities retain and identify an underwriter.Nasdaq scored a direct listing from Coinbase Global Inc. in 2021, which was the biggest of its kind. Companies including Slack Technologies Inc, Palantir Technologies Inc and Roblox Corp have listed on the NYSE.In those direct listings, the companies didn’t issue any new shares. Unlike a traditional IPO, banks in a direct listing don’t underwrite shares or allocate them to institutional investors the night before they begin trading. They are instead sold by shareholders on the day of the listing based on market demand. One of the key advantages of a direct listing is that that investors can sell shares without waiting for a lock-up period — typically six months — to expire.Heralded by some as the cure for the shortcomings of IPOs, there have been only 11 significant direct listings on US exchanges, with eyeware retailer Warby Parker Inc’s September 2021 debut being one of the most recent. The most recent large listing was by cannabis company Bright Green Corp, whose shares surged as high as $58 in their Nasdaq debut in May and have since fallen to about 53 cents.Traditional IPOs set a record last year with more than 1,000 companies raising almost $339bn on US exchanges, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this year, only 207 companies have raised a combined total of $24bn, the data show.

A liquidity shortage in Saudi Arabia’s banking system that pushed funding costs to record highs this year is temporary and mainly driven by broader market volatility, the kingdom’s finance minister said.“I’m not worried about liquidity,” Mohamed al-Jadaan told reporters in Riyadh. “There are sufficient levers at the central bank disposal, including using our money.”The cost of money as measured by the three-month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate, or Saibor, surged to a record this year, rising higher than it did during the 2008 global financial crisis. A 50bn riyal ($13bn) injection by the central bank in June helped ease liquidity conditions through the summer before they started to tighten again.Recently, the central bank, known as SAMA, has been relying on open market operations — transactions that allow it to provide or drain short-term liquidity in exchange for securities from lenders, Bloomberg News reported. Saibor is down to 5.28% this month.Al-Jadaan said the government will continue to access debt markets with the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, following through on its plans.“We are prepaying maturing debt,” he said. “If there are market opportunities to actually increase our debt, even if we don’t need it immediately, we will.”Saudi Arabia has a $3bn bond maturing next year and another $1bn in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The world’s largest oil exporter is on track to run its first budget surplus in about a decade after seeing revenues soar on the back of higher oil production and a rally in prices above $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia boosted its forecast for next year’s budget surplus compared with projections made just three months ago, in a sign of confidence that its revenues will hold up despite jitters in the oil market and fears of a global economic slowdown.The government’s latest fiscal outlook, unveiled on Wednesday, showed it now expects to run a surplus of 16bn riyals in 2023, nearly double a previous estimate of 9bn riyals. The economy is still forecast to expand 3.1%.Revenues are now set to reach 1.13tn riyals, slightly more than projected earlier, according to the Finance Ministry. Expenditure next year is expected at 1.114tn riyals, unchanged from the government’s estimate published in September.“We are not celebrating the surplus,” al-Jadaan told reporters. “It’s something that we expected, we’ve been working to curtail our spending and to increase our non-oil revenues.”

US producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November amid a jump in the costs of services, but the trend is moderating, with annual inflation at the factory gate posting its smallest increase in 1-1/2 years.The report from the Labor Department yesterday also showed underlying producer prices increasing at their slowest pace since April 2021 on a year-on-year basis.It was published ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month the US central bank could scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes “as soon as December.”“Easing producer prices foreshadow an improving inflation environment,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The Fed will likely downshift the pace of rate hikes next week and should continue to downshift in 2023.However, the monthly increase in producer prices illustrates the need for continued tightening.”The producer price index for final demand rose 0.3% last month.Data for October was revised up to show the PPI gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported.A 0.4% rise in prices for services accounted for the increase in the PPI.Services, which edged up 0.1% in October, were last month driven by an 11.3% surge in the costs of securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice and related services.There were also increases in prices for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, portfolio management and long-distance motor carrying.But the cost of passenger transportation fell as did prices for automobiles and parts, and hotel accommodation.US stocks opened lower.The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies.US Treasury prices fell. Goods prices nudged up 0.1% after accelerating 0.6% in October.A 3.3% increase in food prices was offset by a 3.3% drop in energy costs.Excluding food and energy, wholesale goods prices increased 0.3% after being flat for two straight months.In the 12 months through November, the PPI increased 7.4%. That was the smallest increase since May 2021 and followed a 8.1% advance in October.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI climbing 0.2% and rising 7.2% year-on-year.Attention now shifts to the November consumer price index data scheduled for release next Tuesday.Inflation is gradually slowing as supply chains ease and demand for goods ebbs.The Institute for Supply Management last week reported that its measure of prices paid by factories for goods dropped to a 2-1/2 year low in November.But the shift in spending to services means overall inflation will remain elevated for a while.Some of the price pressures are seen coming from the labour market, with wage growth accelerating in November. That has left economists expecting the Fed will continue tightening monetary policy and lift its policy rate to a level higher than the recently projected 4.6%, where it could stay for some time.The central bank has raised the policy rate by 375 basis points this year from near zero to a 3.75-4.00% range, in the fastest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s.Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices gained 0.3% in November.The so-called core PPI rose 0.2% in October.In the 12 months through November, the core PPI advanced 4.9%, the smallest rise since April 2021, after increasing 5.4% in October.Workers sew a batch of Carhartt hats at the Industrial Sewing & Innovation Center manufacturing facility in Detroit. US producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November amid a jump in the costs of services, but the trend is moderating, with annual inflation at the factory gate posting its smallest increase in 1-1/2 years.

UniCredit SpA is facing the prospect of higher capital requirements next year, with its main regulator seeking to ensure the bank’s resilience against risks from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the economic downturn, according to people familiar with the matter.The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated to UniCredit that it’s considering raising the firm’s so-called Pillar 2 requirement, which currently stands at 1.75%, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous as the move hasn’t been announced. The measure is usually increased or lowered in increments of 0.25%, meaning the next step for the Italian lender would probably be 2% of its risk-weighted assets. Through the Pillar 2 mechanism, the ECB has the power to force individual banks to conserve more capital when it considers them to be out of step with the central bank’s assessment of the likelihood of future losses. An increase for UniCredit may also serve as a warning to others, as chief executive officer Andrea Orcel is currently offering one of the region’s most generous dividend and buyback policies. As UniCredit’s total capital position is well in excess of legal and individual requirements, a raise may only slightly dent Orcel’s ability to return funds to investors. UniCredit pledged late last year to distribute at least €16bn ($16.9bn) via dividends and share buybacks between 2021 and 2024. UniCredit shares reversed earlier gains after the report, declining as much as 1.7%. A spokesman for UniCredit declined to comment as did a spokesman for the ECB. Banks can meet the ECB’s requirements with a mix of high quality capital known as common equity Tier 1 as well as types of subordinated bonds. The requirement comes on top of other buffers banks are obliged to hold. In total, UniCredit had to maintain a CET1 ratio of just over 9% in 2022. The ratio stood at 15.4% at the end of September, meaning the Italian lender had about €20bn of equity above that threshold.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cast a shadow over Europe’s economy and the banks that keep it running. While UniCredit has largely written off its business in Russia itself, it still has €3bn of cross-border exposure to the country and its operations in Italy, Germany and Austria mean the firm is vulnerable to a downturn in some of the markets most reliant on disrupted supplies of natural gas. Many euro-area lenders are currently benefiting from a boost in interest revenue given the ECB’s path of rate increases, but a recession that’s likely already begun amid double-digit inflation is worsening the outlook into 2023. The central bank’s annual risk review should be finalized as soon as next week, said the people. No formal communication on the capital requirement decision has been relayed to UniCredit, one of the people said. Banks have a chance to weigh in on the ECB’s evaluation before it is made final.UniCredit isn’t alone in bracing for higher requirements. Raiffeisen Bank International AG, the Austrian lender that has a major unit in Russia, said last month that it expects its Pillar 2 to rise, based on a draft letter from the ECB. The ECB has also imposed capital charges related to leveraged finance on BNP Paribas SA and Deutsche Bank AG, arguing that they have ignored warnings to cut risk, Bloomberg reported last month. UniCredit said last month that it is “well positioned” for a period of macroeconomic uncertainty and had made extra provisions against potential losses of about €1.3bn.

The stage is set for some fascinating quarter-final drama from the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.After three weeks of pulsating action, just eight teams are left standing as the 32-nation tournament heads into the final rounds of knockout competition after a two-day break.A blockbuster set of quarter-finals gets under way on Friday when five-time champions Brazil face 2018 runners-up Croatia.That clash is the appetiser for another heavyweight World Cup collision between Lionel Messi’s Argentina and three-time losing finalists, the Netherlands.On saturday, Morocco will carry the flag for African football in their quarter-final clash with Portugal before holders France face England in an eagerly anticipated showdown.Wins for Argentina and Brazil on Friday would set up a titanic semi-final between the two South American heavyweights.For now, though, Brazil are looking no further than on Friday’s assignment against Croatia at Education City Stadium.“They have individual quality and collective quality as well as a resilience and persistence,” Brazil coach Tite said of Croatia. “We are aware of their virtues but my focus is on maintaining our standards and whoever plays best will go through.”Croatia captain Luka Modric yesterday said his side were determined to progress beyond the last eight. “We did a great thing by going to the quarter-finals, but regardless of that we would like to do more,” the Real Madrid midfielder said. “We have to play our best match. And if we do that we have a chance of winning.”Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni is optimistic that Angel Di Maria and Rodrigo De Paul will be available for his side’s clash against the Netherlands at Lusail Stadium after injury issues.His opposite number, Louis van Gaal, back in charge of the Dutch for a third spell, said his team would have to step up a gear to compete with the South American side. who beat them on penalties in the 2014 semi-final in Brazil. “The tournament is actually starting on Friday for real for us, although of course I don’t want to downplay the importance of other countries we were able to beat,” he said. “But Argentina and Brazil, who we will possibly play in the next round, are quite different to the teams we beat in the group stage and last 16.” Tomorrow, all eyes will be on the battle between France and England at Al Bayt Stadium.England said on Thursday that forward Raheem Sterling is set to return to the squad after initially leaving the team’s World Cup base following a break-in at his family home.Sterling did not feature in England’s squad for the 3-0 last-16 win against Senegal and it would be a major surprise if the 28-year-old starts against France. In tomorrow’s other quarter-final, buoyant Portugal will be looking to end Morocco’s fairytale run to the last eight. The match takes place at Al Thumama Stadium.Portugal produced one of the most scintillating displays of the tournament by dismantling Switzerland 6-1 in the last 16 after coach Fernando Santos opted to drop Cristiano Ronaldo.According to reports in Portugal, Santos’s decision to drop Ronaldo prompted the 37-year-old superstar to threaten to walk out of the team camp. But Ronaldo took to social media to stress the squad was rock solid after the Portuguese Football Federation issued a statement denying the reported bust-up with the former Real Madrid and Manchester United star. On the other hand, after springing the latest World Cup upset in a tournament that has had its fair share, an increasingly confident Morocco side that masterminded victory over Spain will aim to continue their fairytale run in tomorrow’s quarter-final with Portugal. (AFP) Sport Pages 1-8

Japan’s economy, the world’s third-largest, shrank less than initially estimated in the third quarter, bolstering a view that it is slowly recovering from Covid-19 doldrums even as major export markets show further signs of weakening.Separate data showed the economy had recorded its first current account deficit in eight years in October, reflecting high import costs imposed on households and businesses by a decline in the yen’s value to multi-decade lows this year.The revised 0.8% annualised quarterly contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday compared with economists’ median forecast for a 1.1% annualised decline in a Reuters poll and an early official estimate of a contraction of 1.2%. The revision was driven by upward change in private inventories and compared with a 4.5% annualised quarterly gain in the previous quarter.Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter as global recession risks, China’s faltering economy, a weak yen and higher import costs hurt consumption and businesses.The economy may rebound in the current quarter due to easing of supply restrictions on semiconductors and cars, and lifting of Covid-19 border controls, boosting tourism, some analysts say.However, others are bracing for the global economy to tip into a recession next year, dealing a sharp blow to trade-reliant Asian exporters such as Japan.“Resumption of inbound tourism and campaigns to promote domestic travel will boost private consumption, helping the economy return to growth in the October-December quarter,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.“Going forward, a global slowdown led by rate hikes in advanced economies and a real-estate slump in China will weigh on the Japanese economy, possibly causing a technical recession, or two straight quarters of contraction in the first half of next year.”Before annualising, third-quarter GDP was down 0.2% on the previous quarter, compared with the initial contraction estimate of 0.3%. Analysts had expected a similar decline to the earlier reading.Among key sectors, private consumption, which makes up more than half of Japan’s GDP, helped drive growth, though it was revised down.Capital expenditure and exports were the other main contributors to growth.However, a weak yen and hefty import bills, which boost the cost of living, more than offset GDP growth contributors.Increasing costs of energy and other imports brought Japan a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of ¥609.3bn ($4.45bn) in October, Ministry of Finance data showed.It was the first shortfall since March 2014.Before the seasonal adjustment, October’s current account deficit stood at ¥64.1bn, the first deficit since January.The Bank of Japan’s latest “tankan” report showed the mood of manufacturers had worsened in the three months to September, as stubbornly high material costs clouded the outlook for the fragile economy.

Oman’s energy minister said there’s widespread unease among oil-reliant economies over the cap that the Group of Seven nations has imposed on the price of Russian barrels.“I don’t think anyone likes it,” Salim al-Aufi said in an interview in Muscat. “We don’t know how far it will go. Today, it’s Russia. But tomorrow that can change and it could be a global price cap. That would be extremely serious.”The G7 this week slapped a price ceiling on Moscow’s oil exports, a move that Washington insists is purely about Russia: keep its oil flowing while starving it of funds for the war in Ukraine. Introduced in tandem with a European Union ban on seaborne Russian crude, any nations still buying must pay $60 a barrel or less, or lose access to key shipping services supplied by EU and G7 firms.The restrictions will probably lead to less investment in oil production globally, according to al-Aufi, who spoke just days after the Opec+ alliance — a 23-nation coalition that includes Oman and is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — met to discuss policy. They agreed to hold output steady, having decided in October to cut supply by 2 million barrels a day — a move that angered the US.Oil soared after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February, with benchmark Brent topping $127 a barrel. But it’s since slumped below $80 as the risk of slowing growth in the US and Europe, and lingering virus curbs in China, stoke demand concerns. Adding to that weakness is a view among traders that the price cap was set high enough to ensure Russia won’t need to rein in output.When Opec+ convened on Sunday, delegates discussed the “reduced expectation in terms of demand,” al-Aufi said. “That is the concern we all have at the moment. We don’t think the market is ready to receive additional volumes.”Oil snapped a four-day decline yesterday as investors weighed the impact of Chinese government moves to ease virus restrictions.It’s still too early to say whether the tentative reopening will lead to higher consumption, al-Aufi said, adding that Opec+ felt the latest data didn’t justify another reduction in supply.“Any additional cut was likely to send a negative message to the market,” he said. “For now, we’re holding to October’s decision. But that doesn’t mean we can’t respond if we think the market is oversupplied significantly, or undersupplied. We can convene at any time.”

Saudi Arabia has said it recorded its first annual budget surplus in nearly a decade, beating its own projections in a year of elevated oil prices.The surplus for 2022 amounted to 102bn Saudi riyals ($27bn), representing 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary estimates, the finance ministry said.That compared to a surplus of 90bn Saudi riyals that had been projected for 2022 at the end of last year.The world’s biggest crude exporter also preliminarily recorded GDP growth of 8.5% for the year, the finance ministry said, higher than the 7.6 % predicted by the International Monetary Fund.The budget approved for 2023 foresees a surplus of 16bn Saudi riyals ($4bn) and GDP growth of 3.1%, the ministry said.The strong data comes as much of the world grapples with widespread energy shocks and deepening worries about recession.The Gulf kingdom has benefited from oil price hikes triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.Yet in a briefing with journalists in Riyadh on Wednesday, Saudi Finance Minister Mohamed al-Jadaan pushed back on the notion that the surplus resulted from the war.Instead, he said it reflected investments the kingdom had made in its oil and gas sector as well as growth in non-oil sectors, as officials push the Vision 2030 agenda of economic diversification.“We invested a lot of money when people did not,” he said. “We are not celebrating the surplus. For us it’s not really big news. It’s something that we expected. We’ve been working... to curtail our spending, to increase our non-oil revenues.” “Much of the fiscal situation and growth story is of course directly related to high energy prices, and indirectly related to the factors and geopolitical events moving prices,” said Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Yet Saudi Arabia does deserve credit for its fiscal consolidation and economic reforms, which have also helped the overall economic picture.”Yet Justin Alexander, director of the consultancy Khalij Economics, said that while the surplus was “welcome”, it could have been higher given that original projections appeared to be based on oil prices of around $70 per barrel while the average over the year will ultimately be around $100 per barrel.Economic experts say Saudi Arabia needs a crude price of about $80 a barrel to balance its budget.The numbers are “close to the originally budgeted level,” said Alexander, who is also an analyst at the consultancy GlobalSource Partners.“Therefore almost all the windfall revenue from higher oil prices has been spent and the ministry’s projections suggest that these levels of spending will continue in the coming years, creating a risk if oil prices disappoint.” Oil prices have fallen considerably in recent weeks despite a decision made in October by the Opec+ oil alliance, which Riyadh leads jointly with Moscow, to cut production by 2mn barrels per day.This year’s surplus is the first since the 2014 collapse of oil prices from more than $100 a barrel, which prompted Riyadh to borrow heavily and draw from its financial reserves to plug budgetary shortfalls.It also imposed austerity measures like cutting fuel and power subsidies and levying a value added tax.Al-Jadaan said on Wednesday that such “difficult decisions” were unlikely to be reversed based on the surplus of this year and the expected surplus for next year.“The last thing we want is actually to change policies in haste,” he said.