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* Hotel room supply in the country expanded at 'quickest' rate in the GCC, expanding at a CAGR of 10.1% between 2016 and 2021, Alpen Capital noted   Qatar’s hotel pipeline for 2022 has been estimated at 13,300 keys with 80% of expected supply designated under a four or five-star hotel category, according to researcher Alpen Capital. Hotel room supply in the country expanded at the “quickest” rate in the GCC, expanding at a CAGR of 10.1% between 2016 and 2021, Alpen Capital said in its ‘GCC Hospitality Report 2022’. The total number of rooms in the country is estimated to have reached 37,085 in 2021, recording an addition of 11,918 rooms since 2016. Qatar demonstrated resilience despite the challenging economic conditions and added around 10,243 hotel rooms in 2020 and 2021 alone. As of 2021, the country accounted for 4.5% of the total hotel rooms in the GCC. Several mega projects are currently in the pipeline as the country prepares to host the FIFA World Cup 2022, which is expected to draw 1.2mn tourists from around the world. In a bid to accommodate the anticipated 1.2mn tourists for the FIFA World Cup 2022, Qatar has developed several innovative temporary accommodations such as exclusive fan villages, camping by the desert, as well as private home stays and rooms in cruise liners. To accommodate the surge of visitors, Qatar has been aggressively ramping up the hotel industry by adding 105 new hotels to its portfolio of properties and several innovative temporary accommodations, including 16 floating hotels with a total capacity of nearly 1,600 rooms and another 50 new hotels are set to open by the end of 2022. “Following the World Cup, the sharp increase in supply is expected to put downward pressure on occupancy rates; however, the elevated profile provided by hosting the tournament, development of significant tourism infrastructure, lifting of the blockade, and global travel recovery are all expected to support the growth prospects of the tourism sector in Qatar. “Apart from hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022, Qatar is also vying to host a variety of business forums and conferences as it seeks to establish itself as a business hub in the GCC,” Alpen Capital noted. Qatar, the researcher noted, witnessed significant growth in tourism activity, especially since the removal of the embargo. It recorded a 17.5% Y-o-Y growth in international tourist arrivals in 2019 amid an increase in business and leisure events. Moreover, it has been hosting several events in the run up to the FIFA World Cup 2022, helping the industry revive from the lows of 2020. The occupancy rates, thus, increased from 62.0% in 2016 to an estimated 71.0% in 2021 – highest amongst the GCC nations.

Middle East airlines will require 2,980 new airplanes valued at $765bn to serve passengers and trade over the next 20 years, according to Randy Heisey, Boeing managing director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East, Africa, and Russia and Central Asia Regions. More than two-thirds of these deliveries will enable growth, while one-third will replace older airplanes with more fuel-efficient models such as the Boeing 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner and 777X, Heisey told a Middle East media event yesterday. In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts a regional demand for 1,290 new passenger airplanes by 2041.   Single-aisle airplanes will continue to be the largest market segment with operators projected to need 1,580 new airplanes in the next 20 years. The growth of single-aisle fleet is largely due to the rapid growth of low-cost carriers across the region, he noted. Air cargo demand is expected to grow 8% by 2041. The Middle East freighter fleet is expected to reach 170 aircraft of which 70 will be new deliveries. Over the next 20 years, airline traffic growth in the Middle East is projected to increase by an average of 4% per year (in comparison to the global growth of 3.8% per year).  Qatar Airways tops global air cargo in tonnage in 2021 Qatar Airways topped global carriers in the cargo segment in terms of tonnage or freight ton kilometres (FTKs) last year, Boeing’s 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) has shown. In 2011, Qatar Airways stood at 15th position globally in terms of tonnage, noted Randy Heisey, Boeing managing director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East and Africa, and Russia and Central Asia Regions. Dubai’s Emirates was in second position by cargo tonnage in 2021. In 2011, the UAE carrier stood at fifth position globally. Notably, air cargo traffic flown by Middle East carriers has continued its substantial growth of recent years. Air cargo demand is expected to grow 8% by 2041. The Middle East freighter fleet is expected to reach 170 aircraft; more than doubling the pre-pandemic fleet, of which 70 will be new deliveries, Heisey told a media event yesterday. In February this year, Qatar Airways ordered up to 50 777-8 Freighters, expanding its commitment to the Boeing 777X family. Qatar Airways will be the 777-8 Freighter launch customer with a firm order for 34 jets and options for 16 more. First delivery of the new freighter is anticipated in 2027, Qatar Airways said. Boeing 777-8 Freighter will be world’s largest twin-engine cargo jet with the most payload capacity and a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency, emissions and operating costs.

Elevated international oil and gas prices, widening current-account surplus, and rebounding financing and liquidity metrics are favourable to Qatari riyal, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its latest update. EIU noted the riyal's peg to the US dollar will continue to be backed by “healthy” foreign reserves and QIA assets. The researcher assigned currency risk rating at ‘BBB.' Qatar’s ample foreign reserves and sovereign wealth fund assets have helped the country service its ‘high” debt obligations, EIU said. The country’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in 2022. The fiscal account surplus will widen this year, owing to high global hydrocarbons prices, easing public debt pressures, it said. According to EIU, the net negative foreign asset position of Qatar’s banks (banking sector risk is BB-rated) is large but fell in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022. The sector is well regulated, and although net external liabilities pose risks, strong prudential indicators insulate banks from a deterioration in asset quality arising from the longer-term impact of the 2020 recession. The non performing loan ratio is low, and profitability levels are moderate. Economic structure risk is also BB-rated, EIU said. Qatar's over-reliance on hydrocarbons exports remains a vulnerability, exposing the country to global energy price movements, EIU said. The Qatar National Vision 2030 diversification programme will shape policy. Qatar's large stock of public debt “weighs” on the outlook, but a sound financial system is “supportive”. In an earlier update, EIU had noted Qatar's overall business environment score has improved from 6.56 for the historical period (2016-2020) to 7.35 for the forecast period (2021-2025). This has helped Qatar's global ranking to improve by eight places from 36th to 28th, although its regional ranking remains steady at third. The largest improvements, in terms of scores, are in the categories of infrastructure and market opportunities, it said. “Qatar's fairly open foreign investment regime, open trading relationships with regional partners and sophisticated capital markets will remain strong aspects of its business environment. The main shortcomings are in policy towards private enterprise and competition and in access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises,” EIU noted.

Qatar’s travel and tourism spending revenues stood at $16.5bn in 2021, Alpen Capital has said in a report. The hotel room supply in Qatar has expanded at the quickest rate in the GCC, expanding at a CAGR of 10.1% between 2016 and 2021, Alpen Capital said in its ‘GCC Hospitality Report’. The total number of rooms in the country is estimated to have reached 37,085 in 2021, recording an addition of 11,918 rooms since 2016. Qatar “demonstrated resilience” despite the challenging economic conditions and added around 10,243 hotel rooms in 2020 and 2021 alone. As of 2021, the country accounted for 4.5% of the total hotel rooms in the Gulf Co-operation Council region. Several mega projects are currently in the pipeline as the country prepares to host the FIFA World Cup 2022, which is expected to draw 1.2mn tourists from around the world. Qatar’s hotel pipeline for 2022 has been estimated at 13,300 keys with 80% of expected supply designated under a four or five-star hotel category. Following the World Cup, the sharp increase in supply is expected to put downward pressure on occupancy rates; however, the elevated profile provided by hosting the tournament, development of significant tourism infrastructure, lifting of the blockade, and global travel recovery are all expected to support the growth prospects of the tourism sector in Qatar. Apart from hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022, Qatar is also vying to host a variety of business forums and conferences as it seeks to establish itself as a business hub in the GCC. Occupancy rates in Qatar are estimated to have reached 71% in 2021, the highest amongst the GCC nations, Alpen Capital said. Also, Qatar is the only GCC country to have reported a growth in the revenue per available room (RevPAR) from $67.8 in 2019 to $78.4 in 2021, even though it dropped to $53.3 in 2020 owing to the pandemic. An Alpen Capital forecast has shown that Qatar’s hospitality industry is estimated to reach $1.6bn in 2022, recording a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 59.8%. This can be primarily attributed to an estimated 325.5% y-o-y growth in tourist arrivals as the country gears up to host the FIFA World Cup 2022, one of the biggest sporting events globally. In the run up to the mega event, more than 1mn visitors are expected to visit the country, which is likely to significantly boost the revenues for the hospitality sector. To accommodate the surge of visitors, Qatar has been aggressively ramping up the hotel industry by adding 105 new hotels to its portfolio of properties and several innovative temporary accommodations (fan villages and camping by the desert) including 16 floating hotels with a total capacity of nearly 1,600 rooms and another 50 new hotels are set to open by the end of 2022, the report said. The occupancy rates are anticipated to rise to record highs of approximately 86% in 2022. Consequently, ADR is expected to witness a 25.7% y-o-y growth in 2022 to reach $139, while the RevPAR is expected to surge by 51.5% y-o-y to $119. Alpen Capital also noted Qatar is positioning itself as the global sporting hub. Its government has launched a promotional campaign targeting 17 visitor source markets as part of the country's tourism strategy to increase tourism’s contribution to GDP to 10% by 2030 and to attract 6mn visitors annually. Qatar also plans to invest $45bn in tourism beyond the FIFA World Cup 2022 and aims to almost double tourism's share of GDP over the next 16 years through investments from government and business, Alpen Capital said.

Most common LNG trade voyage to Europe last year was from Qatar to Italy with 76 shipments, according to International Gas Union. More than 70% of LNG volumes imported by Europe during 2021 were supplied by Qatar, US and Russia, IGU said in its ‘World LNG Report 2022’. With additional liquefaction capacity, 2021 was characterised by a resumption of growth in the number of voyages and vessel utilisation, after Covid-19 demand reduction in 2020, IGU noted. A total of 6,708 LNG trade voyages departed in 2021, up 12% from 2020, which in contrast saw little growth from the previous year. Global growth in LNG trade voyages is in line with growth in liquefaction capacity, alongside growing competition between Asia and Europe as LNG demand centres. The number of LNG trade voyages both to Europe and Asia has trended upwards since 2015, with growing year-on-year liquefaction and vessel deliveries. The Panama Canal was widened and deepened in 2016, allowing for more transits, IGU said. The resulting voyage distance and time from the United States’ Sabine Pass terminal to Japan’s Kawasaki LNG site was reduced to 9,400 nautical miles (nm) and 29 days through the Panama Canal, compared to 14,500nm and 45 days through the Suez Canal and close to 16,000nm and 49 days around the Cape of Good Hope. However, due to the popularity of the route, the Panama Canal has become a bottleneck for this voyage. “LNG carriers reduce speed and increase the amount of LNG afloat in a quasi-floating storage as a short-term bridge before winter to meet larger end-of-year demand. High charter rates and boil-off usually lead to storing LNG earlier in the year or for longer periods being uneconomical. “Covid-19 led to low LNG shipping charter rates, port closures and excess liquefaction, an environment that allowed for use of LNG carriers at reduced speed or eventually for storage as early as February 2020. This dampened the effect that demand destruction otherwise would have had on vessel utilisation in 2020,” IGU said. There were 4,598 voyages to Asia in 2021, a 10% increase from 2020 driven by stronger Chinese demand amidst a colder winter at the beginning of the year, coupled with a coal shortage and stronger industrial demand towards year-end. European trade voyages grew 11% to 1,435, competing head-to-head with Asia for LNG supply. The most common voyage globally in 2021 was from Australia to Japan, with 452 voyages. This was closely matched with the voyage count from Australia to China, at 447 journeys. Japan, China and South Korea took the highest number of cargoes globally, receiving 1,523, 1,192 and 715 cargoes, respectively. The average number of voyages completed per vessel was 10.6 in 2021, a similar level to the year before, IGU noted.    

The aviation industry in the Middle East has benefited significantly from the region’s strategic location – at the cross roads of major economies in Asia, Africa and Europe. Due to its geographical location, Middle East carriers can easily connect to any continent in the world: From the well-established international hubs of Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, aircraft can reach almost all of Asia, Africa, Europe within a flying range of eight hours. According to the Airports Council International (ACI-Asia Pacific) the Middle East region has more than 110 airports. Aviation industry in the region is one of the fastest growing in the world, accounting for 4% (170mn) of the global traffic (4.6bn) in 2021. In 2019, Middle Eastern airports handled 404mn passengers. In 2020, it handled 135mn and 169mn passengers in 2021. Middle Eastern airports, in the last two decades, have become popular transit hubs for travellers. With a stopover, passengers can relax, stretch and get some refreshments before continuing their journey. During pre-Covid, the industry in the Middle East generated $213bn in revenues, accounting for 6% global economic activity. The sector generated over 3mn jobs until 2019 in the Middle East. Middle East Airports remained the most impacted in 2021, reached only 42% of its 2019 level by year end. This was mainly due to its dependence on international traffic, ACI Asia-Pacific noted. This year, the region is expected to reach 67% of 2019 levels and fully recover only in late 2024. There has been an improvement in traffic in the first four months of 2022 (from January to April) with the region recording 66% traffic compared to the same period in 2019. Cargo throughput too remains positive in the first four months of the 2022, achieving 86% as compared to same period in 2019, ACI Asia-Pacific noted. ACI forecasts indicate that close to 19.7bn passengers are expected to travel by air globally by 2040 – more than double of the 9bn passengers travelled in 2019. Middle Eastern Airports are expected to handle 1.1bn passengers by 2040 – a significant increase of nearly 300% of the combined traffic they handled in 2019 (405mn). ACI noted that to handle the surge, Middle Eastern airports have to develop their infrastructure. According to ACI forecast, world’s airports are expected to invest nearly $2.4tn to develop their infrastructure by the year 2040. The Middle East's projected capital expenditure (CAPEX) needs amount to about $151bn between 2021 and 2040. Near-term (2021-2025) greenfield airport projects are expected to comprise 56% ($17bn) of total near-term regional airport CAPEX, though that share will gradually decrease over the long-run (2026-2040), as the region meets long-run air passenger capacity needs. To bring to life the ambition of becoming a local gateway for global travel, the Middle East countries are investing billions of dollars into new-build airports to create iconic transport hubs. At the same time, any failure to address capacity needs to realise projected 2040 passenger demand will have real socio-economic consequences, ACI points out. Based on the relationship between passenger travel and socio-economic outcomes, for every 1,000,000 foregone passengers due to airport capacity constraints in 2040, it is estimated that the Middle East would lose about 9,600 jobs and $645mn in GDP. In a statement to Gulf Times, Stefano Baronci, director general, ACI Asia-Pacific said, “With over 110 airports, the Middle East is already one of the globe’s main transport capitals and is one among the fastest growing in the world, accounting for 4% (170mn) of the global traffic (4.6bn) in 2021. During pre-Covid, the aviation industry in the Middle East generated $213bn in revenues, representing 6% of the global economic activity. “Our forecasts estimate that close to 19.7bn passengers are expected to traverse the world’s airports by 2040 – more than double of the 9bn passengers travelled in 2019. Middle East Airports are expected to handle 1.1bn passengers by 2040 – a significant increase of nearly 300% of the combined traffic they handled in 2019 (405 million). This requires significant investment on infrastructure upgrade. “Airports in the Middle East will need to spend around $151bn to complete the expansion and modernisation projects for their airports over the next two decades. Many airports in the region have already placed significant emphasis on infrastructure investment as well, with digital innovation and technology driving change. “A number of Middle Eastern airports have invested billions of dollars into new airports to strengthen its position as global transport hubs. This is a clear indication that the airports have shown the intent towards capacity expansion to meet the future growth.” Amid the challenges and capacity needs, future indeed looks bright for the region’s aviation industry. Despite the Covid-induced slowdown, the aviation industry in the region is expected to grow further in the coming years. Clearly, this will mandate facility enhancement and airport infrastructure development. Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn    

Qatar’s public debt will decline over the next four years from 45.5% this year to 38.7% of GDP in 2026, researcher FocusEconomics has said in a report. Next year, the country’s public debt has been estimated to be 39.9%, 40.8% in 2024 and 39.7% (2025). The country’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the GDP) will be 8.9% this year, 6.1% (2023), 3.1% (2024), 3.6% (2025) and 4.2% (2026). Current account balance (as a percentage of the GDP) has been estimated to be 20% this year, 15.6% (2023), 12.2% (2024), 11.9% (2025) and 11.5% (2026). According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s merchandise trade balance will be $81.1bn in 2022, $79.3bn (2023), $64.4bn (2024), $67.8bn (2025) and $70.4bn (2026). The country’s GDP, the researcher said, will scale up from $217bn this year to $248bn in 2026. Next year, it will be $216bn, $222bn in 2024 and $235bn in 2025. GDP per capita, the researcher has estimated, will total $81,151 this year, $82,540 (2023), $85,790 (2024), $91,627 (2025) and $97,544 (2026). FocusEconomics noted the country’s economy should have accelerated in the second quarter (Q2). The non-oil private-sector PMI averaged at the highest level on record in the quarter, aided by the vanishing impact of Covid-19. The tourism industry made a particularly strong recovery in the quarter, with visitor arrivals up 500% year on year in June. Moreover, energy output increased in annual terms in April and June, which should have more than offset a decline in May. In addition, higher oil and gas prices buoyed government coffers and exports: Q2’s trade surplus was the largest since 2014. Turning to Q3, PMI data for July suggests strong — albeit easing — momentum in the non-oil economy. In other news, diversification efforts have taken a step forward in recent weeks. In August, the government announced the construction of two new solar plants and a ‘blue ammonia’ factory: ammonia could be used as a climate-friendly fuel. FocusEconomics said the GDP outlook for 2022 is upbeat. Elevated energy prices and the reduced impact of the pandemic will be key drivers. Moreover, the FIFA World Cup will boost tourism towards the end of the year. Increased trade with Arab neighbours will also be a contributor. However, rising interest rates could take the edge off of demand. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% growth in 2023. Inflation fell to 5% in July from 5.4% in June. The Qatar Central Bank hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points and the deposit rate by 75 basis points in July. Inflation is expected to average roughly double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices. That said, price pressures will likely ebb from now until end-2022. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.    

Beyond the Tarmac The airline industry will continue to face headwinds in the European Union, as nearly 1.2mn jobs, mostly in the travel and tourism sector, remain unfilled across the EU. In 2020, when the pandemic was at its peak, the travel and tourism sector across the EU was decimated like other regions of the world due to border closures and suspension of commercial air transport. Subsequently, the sector reported a loss of almost 1.7mn jobs. In 2021, when governments began to ease travel restrictions and travellers’ confidence improved, the sector’s direct contribution to the EU’s economy recovered by 30.4% and brought back 571,000 jobs. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and the European Travel Commission (ETC) recently warned that the sector’s recovery could be put at serious risk if thousands of jobs remain unfilled across the EU. The challenging summer labour shortfall has been revealed by the global tourism body - WTTC - in its latest analysis of the sector and calls for urgent action to address this critical issue. This year WTTC projects that the sector’s recovery will continue to accelerate and almost reach pre-pandemic levels with an expected 32.9% increase in its direct contribution to the EU economy. A serious number of vacancies are likely to remain unfilled during the busy summer period, with travel agencies forecast to be the worst hit with a 30% shortfall of workers (nearly one in three vacancies unfilled). Meanwhile, air transport and accommodation segments are likely to suffer one in five unfilled vacancies, representing 21% and 22% staff shortage respectively. According to the global tourism body, the UK is expected to see a shortfall of 128,000 jobs, with one in 14 job openings expected to remain vacant. Restaurants and hotels are struggling to find staff but the UK government, unlike countries like Portugal, are refusing to allow in temporary workers in from oversees. The UK’s hotel, entertainment, and aviation industries are forecast to be the worst affected, facing unfulfilled vacancies of 18% (one in six), 12% (one in eight), and 11% (one in nine), respectively. Critical staff shortages are now acute within transportation - particularly across the aviation industry, which is struggling to cope with the post-pandemic travel demand. Before the pandemic in 2019, nearly 1.8mn people were employed in travel and tourism in the UK, and by 2020, more than 200,000 had lost their jobs. A new study by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has revealed the recovery of France’s Travel & Tourism is at risk as more than 70,000 jobs remain unfilled across the country. According to the global tourism body, the supply of labour could fail to match the increased travel demand across the sector, which is estimated to be near pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022. In 2019, before the pandemic, more than 1.3mn people were employed by travel and tourism in France. But by 2020, nearly 175,000 had lost their jobs. France saw the beginning of the recovery in 2021, with a 40.6% growth to the sector’s contribution to the national economy. However, staff shortages have been prevalent in the country, with thousands of vacancies that remain unfilled, putting the sector under pressure. A WTTC analysis shows France’s aviation is expected to be one of the worst affected, struggling to find candidates for nearly one in three (38%) job postings, while travel agencies could also face one third (39%) of staff shortages. Another popular European destination being challenged due to shortage of skilled hands is Italy. The recovery of Italy’s travel and tourism could be jeopardised if quarter of a million jobs across the sector remain unfilled, WTTC says. Its data shows Italy is the most impacted of the European countries analysed, expected to see a shortfall of a shocking 250,000 workers, with one in six vacancies likely to remain unfilled this year. According to the global tourism body, the supply-demand gap is expected to be even higher during the peak third quarter when the sector’s demand is likely to approach pre-crisis levels. Before the pandemic, in 2019, nearly 1.4mn were employed by travel and tourism in Italy. But 2020 saw the loss of more than 200,000 jobs. Italy had a strong recovery since 2021, with a 58.5% growth to the sector’s contribution to the national economy. However, staff shortages have been prevalent in the country, with thousands of vacancies that remain unfilled, putting the sector under great pressure. A WTTC analysis shows Italy’s accommodation industry and travel agent segment are forecast to be the worst affected, facing more than one third (38%) and nearly half (42%) of unfulfilled vacancies, respectively. WTTC president & CEO Julia Simpson said: “Europe showed one of the strongest recoveries in 2021, ahead of the global average. However, current shortages of labour can delay this trend and put additional pressure on an already embattled sector. “Governments and the private sector need to come together to provide the best opportunities for people looking for the great career opportunities that the travel sector offers.” Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn

Doha Insurance Group has seen its gross written premium (GWP) scaling up 49% to QR859mn and net profit jumping 48% to QR60mn in the first half of the year, driven mainly by a growth in sales, claims control and diversification in terms of underwriting lines. During the first half of the year, the Group had also seen its claims being reduced to QR104mn from QR134mn in H1, 2021. “We always try and maintain the right balance between corporate and retail. We have proven ourselves to a lot of our strategic clients over the years that we do a very good job in servicing and addressing their needs. We don’t aim to the biggest…but we aim to be the best in terms of service,” Doha Insurance Group chief executive officer Jassim Ali al-Moftah said in an interview with Gulf Times. “A key driver of growth is our investments in IT infrastructure. The group owns an IT company, which is based in Jordan and handles all our IT needs. And we have been very successful in attracting a lot of the retail market, with our online and App-based sales capabilities “So we built up not only our corporate portfolio, but also managed to capture a lot of the retail. So, when that growth happened, we managed to build upon that and continue attracting more corporate clients, especially for construction, engineering and energy,” al-Moftah noted. Doha Takaful, the company’s Islamic arm, has grown. The company’s medical insurance portfolio also registered growth, he said. Asked whether investments in IT had helped the company curtail unnecessary expenditure, he said, “We are always looking at unwanted costs, regardless of our IT investments. But over the past years we have managed to, let's say, restructure our workflow to make it much more streamlined. And I think that was also one of the main drivers of our growth.” On challenges posed by geo-politics (such as Russia-Ukraine conflict, higher energy prices, food shortage and logistical bottlenecks), al-Moftah said, “These will have an impact, not directly on the insurance side, but definitely on the investment side. For instance, in the second quarter of 2022, we saw a dip in investment profits due the current market conditions, inflation, higher interest rates, dip in the bond market and so on and so forth. “But I think as time goes by…those will recover. We usually invest in rated bonds and top rated securities. We don't go into a ‘quick money grab’ or ‘money making opportunity’ in terms of investments. We always like a stable growth pattern across our investment plans. So I think what happened in the second quarter was that even though there was a dip in the investments, the growth in the insurance or in the core business, kind of balanced that out. We always like to keep a balance in our portfolio, quarter on quarter. Sometimes, the investment does better, sometimes the insurance does.” On competition in the local insurance market, the Doha Insurance Group CEO said, “There is always going to be competition amongst the companies. Qatar is one of the most developed markets in terms of insurance capabilities. The strength of the insurance sector in Qatar is evident on the fact that most of the national insurance companies are ‘A’ rated. We are proud of our national insurance companies. We are here to develop with each other…support one another.” Al-Moftah emphasised that insurance, especially in the country’s retail segment, “is a very big untapped market.” “Clearly, there is not much awareness about insurance in the retail segment. An individual generally buys a policy, when it is mandated. If it is not, he or she ignores it. In most cases, they (retail customers) are not even aware of it,” he said. The situation, however, is quite different on the corporate side. When asked about the potential outlook for the remainder of the year, al-Moftah said, “You never know what challenges arise in the insurance business. On the spur of the moment, things can happen. But our plan is to remain stable. We pursue a cautious, conservative approach. God willing, we will remain stable.” He thanked the Qatar Central Bank and the company’s board of directors for their support and guidance that helped Doha Insurance grow over the years. The CEO also attributed the company’s success to its hard working and dedicated employees, “but for whose hard work, this would not have been possible.” Doha Insurance Group president Bassam Hussein said Qatar is a “promising market” and a lot of opportunities exist in the country. “Right now, we are focused on being a positive factor in contributing to Qatar’s delivering a very successful World Cup. We understand Qatar has a large pipeline of projects, beyond FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. In supporting the needs of national projects and corporate icons, we remain committed to the growth factor and stability our national economy. We are also looking forward to developing our capabilities on the medical insurance portfolio in anticipation of the new medical laws implementation.” Hussein said, “While we are eager and determined to grow, we wish to grow in a very sensible way. We are looking at opportunities within Qatar and abroad. “Unfortunately, we haven't yet found the right opportunity, but we will keep looking and expanding… and hopefully our numbers will get even better. We also would like to thank our clients for their continued trust and our continued support to the group.”

* Qatar’s exports are forecast to total nearly $95bn this year and $91.6bn in 2023 Qatar has been forecast to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.1% this year, which if realised would mark the "fastest pace" of growth since 2014, according to Emirates NBD. The forecast growth would take the economy back above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, the regional banking group said in an economic update. Growth in 2022 will be broad based, with robust expansions in both the hydrocarbons (3.5%) and non-hydrocarbons (6%) sectors, and while Emirates NBD anticipates that the headline expansion rate will slow next year, at 2.8% it will remain stronger than the 10-year average. Daniel Richards, Mena Economist at Emirates NBD said the 6% growth forecast for the non-hydrocarbons sector would be the strongest in the GCC this year, driven by the ongoing recovery from the pandemic as activity gradually normalises, but also preparations for the FIFA World Cup and the event itself. The Qatar Financial Centre PMI survey has reflected the surge in activity as final preparations for the major global event, which begins in November, come to a head, with the June headline reading of 67.5 marking a record for the index. This was up from 63.6 in May and marked an average of 62.2 over the year to date. “Output, new orders and purchasing activity were all at record highs, largely shrugging off the inflationary pressures which drove input prices to accelerate at the fastest pace in 21 months. “Aside from the preparations for the event which have helped support growth in key sectors such as construction for years, the World Cup will also drive a significant uptick in activity through the four weeks of games over November to December, with the tourism and hospitality sector set to be a key beneficiary,” Richards noted. Last year, Qatar’s economy grew at 1.5%, following the -3.6% contraction seen in 2020. Non-hydrocarbon sector (6%) will drive the economy this year, while the hydrocarbon sector has been forecast to grow at 3.5% in 2022, Emirates NBD said. On the other hand, the hydrocarbon sector has been forecast as the main driver next year. In 2023, the hydrocarbon sector has been forecast to grow at 4% and non-hydrocarbon sector at 2%. Next year’s real GDP growth, according to Emirates NBD will be 2.7%. The country’s nominal GDP has been forecast to reach $244.6bn this year and $243.9bn in 2023. Qatar’s exports are forecast to total nearly $95bn this year and $91.6bn in 2023. Hydrocarbon commodities would account for chunk of Qatar’s exports ($81.7bn) this year and ($78.3bn) in 2023. Emirates NBD forecasts the country’s imports to total $28.2bn this year and $29.6bn in 2024. The country’s trade balance, therefore, has been forecast at $66.7bn this year and $62bn in 2023. As a percentage of GDP, trade balance has been forecast at 27.3 this year and 25.4 in 2023. Qatar’s current account balance has been forecast at $35bn in 2022 (14.3% of GDP) and $30.3bn in 2023 (12.4% of GDP).

Qatar’s GDP per capita may exceed $100,000 in 2026 as the national economy is expected to pick up steam in the years ahead, researcher FocusEconomics has said in an update. The country's GDP per capita in 2026 will be $101,816, FocusEconomics estimated in its latest report. This year it will be $81,360 and $83,526 in 2023, $87,921 (2024) and $94,818 in 2025. National GDP has been estimated by FocusEconomics to reach $217bn this year, $219bn in 2023, $228bn (2024), $243bn (2025) and $259bn (2026). The current account balance has been estimated at $43.6bn this year, $35.2bn (2023), $28.3bn (2024), $34.2bn (2025) and $40.6bn (2026). GDP growth this year has been estimated at 4.5% and 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% (2024), 3.3% (2025) and 3.8% (2026). The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated at 20.1 this year, 16.1 (2023), 12.4 (2024), 14.1 (2025) and 15.7 (2026). Merchandise trade balance has been estimated at $80.9bn this year, $78bn (2023), $75bn (2024), $76bn (2025) and $81.2bn (2026). Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) may reach 9.0 this year, 5.7 (2023), 2.6 (2024), 3.2 (2025) and 3.8 (2026). Public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated by FocusEconomics at 45.8 this year, 41.5 (2023), 42.1 (2024), 41.1 (2025) and 40 (2026). Unemployment (as a percentage of active population), the researcher said, will remain at a meagre 0.2 between 2022 and 2026. After a 2.5% expansion in year-on-year terms in Q1 (first quarter), the economy likely picked up steam in Q2 (second quarter), FocusEconomics noted. “The private-sector PMI was at a record high in May–June, thanks to strong expansions in output and new orders. What’s more, tourism continued to boost local activity, with visitor arrivals rising 869% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May,” FocusEconomics said. In addition, higher oil and gas prices have buoyed government coffers and supported the external sector: Q2’s trade surplus was the largest since 2014. The picture in the energy sector was more mixed however; after growing in annual terms in April, the volume of energy output “contracted” in May, FocusEconomics said. According to FocusEconomics, "Qatar’s GDP outlook for 2022 is upbeat". “Elevated energy prices will be a key growth driver. Moreover, the non-energy sector will record strong growth, given the reduced impact of the pandemic and the upcoming FIFA World Cup. Increased trade with the Arab Quartet will also be a contributor. “However, inflationary pressures and rising interest rates pose risks. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% growth in 2023.” Inflation rose from 5.2% in May to 5.4% in June. Items related to recreation, utilities and food saw the largest increases. The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) hiked rates by 50 basis points in July, diverging from the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis points hike, the researcher said. Inflation is expected to average almost double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.4% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.

Beyond the Tarmac Amid signs of improvement due to strong pent-up demand, the Middle East’s aviation industry still faces strong headwinds, including geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and its subsequent impact on the global macroeconomics. These include high inflation, rising energy prices and disruptions in supply chains. All these external factors, to a certain extent, continue to negatively impact the supply and demand for air travel in the region, according to Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific. Following a turbulent first quarter, marked with rigid travel restrictions, suspension of international air travel in some parts of the region and geopolitical conflict, the recovery in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions are benefiting from a strong pent-up demand, according to Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific’s Industry Outlook. On a positive note, several other indicators look promising for the sector that has been battered by the Covid-19 pandemic over the last two years. Easing of stringent travel protocols is driving the recovery of traffic. The quarter saw countries such as Cambodia, Singapore, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Australia withdrawing restrictions on international air travel. Statistics from key hubs in these countries show that, in aggregate, passenger traffic has increased substantially between the end of February and early July 2022. While South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan) and the Middle East (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Yemen, Qatar) have recovered to approximately 85% of second quarter (Q2) 2019 seat capacity, Emerging East Asia (China, Mongolia and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is at just 15% of 2019 Q2 level as China adopted a ‘zero-Covid’ approach and renewed lockdowns. Most of East Asian countries are heavily dependent on Chinese passengers. Pent-up demand for air travel particularly for leisure such as visiting friends and relatives and postponed holidays, will continue to buoy the industry's recovery even as the sector faces strong headwinds against inflation and geopolitical risks. Many airports are already operating at capacity in peak periods, even though the overall footfall is below 2019 levels. The Q2, 2022 scheduled domestic seat capacity shows recovery of 89% of pre-pandemic levels as compared to the same quarter of 2019. The international seat capacity, however, is still down 59% as travel restrictions, quarantine and testing requirements still continue to impact, particularly in China and partially in Japan. Total domestic seat capacity is expected to exceed 2019 levels by Q3, 2022, with the overall traffic for the year 2022 likely to be on par with 2019 levels. Cargo traffic: Cargo markets in Asia-Pacific and Middle East continued to remain robust, driven by a resurgence of air cargo volumes in China and the re-routing of Europe-Asia cargo through Middle Eastern hubs to avoid Russian airspace. Recent improvements in supply chain constraints and the easing of Covid restrictions in China are expected to ease market conditions and drive demand for air cargo, Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific noted. The index based on actual cargo tonnage indicates that in first quarter (Q1) 2022, air cargo volumes are above Q1, 2019 levels across the majority of sub-regions. The sub-regions with the largest cargo shares in the region are Emerging East Asia (China, Mongolia &, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) at 32%, followed by Developed East Asia (Japan, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong & Macau) at 30% and Middle East (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Yemen & Qatar) at 16% and Southeast Asia (Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam & Singapore) at 15%. Airport Revenues and expenditures: Despite an improving trend, airport financial margins continue to remain far below pre-pandemic levels and are economically unsustainable. Quarterly revenues remain 60% below 2019 which is a similar level compared to 2021, indicating that revenues continue to remain at unsustainably low levels, leading to large operating losses incurred by airports. Total operating expenditures have declined in Q1 2022 compared to 2019 and while this decline has narrowed slightly compared to Q1 2021. This demonstrates that airport operators are making efforts to limit expenditures. Workforce at airports: Airports in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific are carefully handling the risk of deficit of workforce at airports, the outlook says. Compared to Europe and other parts of the world, airports in Asia-Pacific and Middle East Airport have experienced to a lesser extent manpower shortage, which is not just limited to airports but to the entire aviation ecosystem, including airlines, government agencies, ground handling, security and check-in etc. This was mainly due to two concurrent factors: the long-term vision of several airports to retain their staff despite the challenging time; and to the moderate recovery of traffic compared to other regions in the World. With reference to the latter, Asia-Pacific is expected to have the slowest recovery, reaching only 62% of 2019 levels in 2022. This is giving our airports and other aviation stakeholders’ time to address the challenges and simultaneously work on introducing digital technologies and reskilling and upskilling staff, providing a better career development to make airports a more attractive place for long-term career.

The dollar is probably close to a peak after its recent surge, Oxford Economics said, but noted several factors, including rate differentials and global liquidity conditions, are likely to remain dollar supportive for some time. “We expect only a gradual unwinding of dollar positives in 2022-2023 leading to a modest retreat – and there are still some short-term upside risks,” Oxford Economics said. The dollar has surged in recent months, adding to a bull run that began in the early part of 2021. Since the start of last year, the real effective dollar exchange rate has risen by around 15%, and now stands at multi-year highs, it said. Recent dollar gains have mostly resulted from a combination of favourable interest rate differentials, higher global financial stress causing 'safe haven' flows into US assets, and terms of trade shifts hitting competitor currencies. Rate differentials are likely to remain supportive, but the researcher’s baseline forecasts suggest that factors like relative growth and stock price performance will be medium-term drags. The dollar looks overvalued on various measures, but the extent of this varies greatly, with its ‘BEER-based estimates’ suggesting only around 3% overvaluation. Moreover, the dollar has in the past remained well above fair value measures for lengthy periods - so current valuations are not obviously a bar to the dollar posting further near-term gains. “Our dollar strength indicator, which combines a range of key influences, was clearly positive in 2021 and foreshadowed recent dollar gains. But our forecasts suggest the indicator moving to a neutral position in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. This is in line with our baseline forecasts for the dollar to stay strong this year and soften next,” Oxford Economics said. It is often thought the dollar loses out in recessions, and the researcher’s analysis shows a 2-5% decline in the trade-weighted dollar is common in the early part of recessions. However, outcomes have varied considerably in different recessions with the dollar gaining in some cases. Possible upside risks to the dollar include more resilient US growth relative to the G7, better stock market performance and a more pronounced rate hike cycle than it currently expects. Overall, risks around Oxford Economics’ baseline dollar forecast look broadly balanced. In Qatar, QCB adopted its exchange rate policy of hard pegging to the USD at an average price of QR3.64 per dollar. Following upward rate revision by the US central bank - Federal Reserve (Fed), QCB recently raised the QCB Deposit Rate (QCBDR) by 75 basis points to 3%, QCB Lending Rate (QCBLR) by 50 basis points to 3.75% and QCB Repurchase Rate (QCB Repo Rate) by 75 basis points to 3.25%.

Qatar’s ample foreign reserves and sovereign wealth fund assets have helped the country service its ‘high” debt obligations, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said in its latest update. The country’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in 2022. The fiscal account surplus will widen this year, owing to high global hydrocarbons prices, easing public debt pressures, it said. According to EIU, the net negative foreign asset position of Qatar’s banks (Banking sector risk is BB-rated) is large but fell in the first quarter of the year. The sector is well regulated, and although net external liabilities pose risks, strong prudential indicators insulate banks from a deterioration in asset quality arising from the longer-term impact of the 2020 recession. The non performing loan ratio is low, and profitability levels are moderate. EIU noted the riyal's peg to the US dollar will continue to be backed by “healthy” foreign reserves and QIA assets. Assigning currency risk rating at ‘BBB’, EIU said the rating is supported by elevated international oil and gas prices and a widening current-account surplus, and by rebounding financing and liquidity metrics. Economic structure risk is also BB-rated, EIU said. Qatar's over-reliance on hydrocarbons exports remains a vulnerability, exposing the country to global energy price movements. The Qatar National Vision 2030 diversification programme will shape policy. Qatar's large stock of public debt weighs on the outlook, but a sound financial system is supportive. In an earlier update, EIU noted Qatar's overall business environment score has improved from 6.56 for the historical period (2016-2020) to 7.35 for the forecast period (2021-2025). This has helped Qatar's global ranking to improve by eight places from 36th to 28th, although its regional ranking remains steady at third. The largest improvements, in terms of scores, are in the categories of infrastructure and market opportunities, it said. “Qatar's fairly open foreign investment regime, open trading relationships with regional partners and sophisticated capital markets will remain strong aspects of its business environment. The main shortcomings are in policy towards private enterprise and competition and in access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises,” EIU noted.

Qatar and the Middle East recovered to approximately 85% of Q2, 2019 seat capacity in the second quarter, a report by Airport Councils International (ACI) Asia-Pacific has shown. Pent-up demand for air travel particularly for leisure such as visiting friends and relatives and postponed holidays, will continue to buoy the industry's recovery even as the sector faces strong headwinds against inflation and geopolitical risks. Many airports are already operating at capacity in peak periods, even though the overall footfall is below 2019 levels, ACI that represents airport operators in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East region noted in its ‘Industry Outlook’. The Q2, 2022 scheduled domestic seat capacity shows recovery of 89% of pre-pandemic levels as compared to the same quarter of 2019. The international seat capacity, however, is still down 59% as travel restrictions, quarantine and testing requirements still continue to impact, particularly in China and partially in Japan. Total domestic seat capacity is expected to exceed 2019 levels by Q3, 2022, with the overall traffic for the year 2022 likely to be on par with 2019 levels. Following a turbulent first quarter, marked with rigid travel restrictions, suspension of international air travel in some parts of the region and geopolitical conflict, the recovery in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions are benefiting from a strong pent-up demand. Despite signs of improvement, the industry still faces strong headwinds, including geopolitical instability in eastern Europe and its subsequent impact on the global macroeconomics, including high inflation, rising energy prices and disruptions in supply chains. All these external factors, to a certain extent, continue to negatively impact the supply and demand for air travel. ACI Asia-Pacific Director General Stefano Baronci said, “As a result of a successful vaccination campaign that covers an average of 74% of the population across the region, travel restrictions are being gradually phased out across the region, fuelling strong demand for air travel. Though 2022 looks to be a more positive year for the sector, there will be bumps in our road to recovery especially in consideration of the uncertain macroeconomic scenario. “As part of our efforts to further enhance airports' role of engines of economic and social progress in a safe and sustainable manner, ACI Asia-Pacific, at the recent ICAO 57th Conference of Directors General of Civil Aviation for Asia and Pacific Regions in Incheon, Republic of Korea, urged the regulators to work closely with the industry to enhance manpower and operations to ensure a smooth traveller experience and harmonise as much as possible health protocols. ACI Asia-Pacific will continue to work with our members to help the industry build back stronger.”

Qatar will continue to play a major role in global economy because of its energy resources, says QIIB chief executive officer Dr Abdulbasit Ahmad al-Shaibei. “Energy will be an essential element for the development of any region or country – so Qatar will remain playing a special role in world economy, because of its energy,” al-Shaibei said in an interview with Gulf Times. Qatar economy, he said, would continue to offer “distinguished opportunities” for various sectors including banking. “This year we are all focused on the world’s most important sporting event, the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. Covid-19 is almost over, but I believe, we may see a slow period, after the world cup. I believe next year will be a period of certain evaluation. In 2024, I believe it will be another take off year for the Qatari economy. “Because as we all know, whatever that is going on right now in terms of development in our country is not limited to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. We have the Qatar National Vision 2030 and many key projects in terms of infrastructure, healthcare and tourism among others. The local banks will play a major role in all of them,” al-Shaibei noted. “The national economy continues to be well maintained,” the veteran Qatari banker said. And during the pandemic (Covid-19), the local banks under the guidance of Qatar Central Bank (QCB) managed to put a lot of procedures, process to make sure it was a ‘win-win’ situation. “These have ensured banks do not suffer and clients do not get severe pressure from the banks as well. QCB have always tried to guide banks on how to place measures that ease the business for the private sector. At the same time, the local banks were focused on securing their loans,” al-Shaibei said. He said QCB needs to be complimented for ensuring that the banking regulations in Qatar are of international standards. “We thank QCB for their guidance… their regulations are of international standards. While they don’t comprise, they properly guide banks,” the QIIB chief executive officer noted. Talking about QatarEnergy's multi-billion dollar North Field (LNG) expansion, al-Shaibei said, "We at QIIB are very open to financing all companies that are involved in it...even if they are not the main contractor. The procedures (laid down by QatarEnergy in terms of pre-qualification or technical qualification) give us comfort." Al-Shaibei sees a cyclical effect on the Qatari economy because of the North Field expansion. "A project of this scale calls for lots of expertise. I believe lots of people with expertise will move to Qatar to implement the project. This will positively impact the national economy, real estate in particular. It will also mean more business for the banking sector."

Qatar-Italy was the "most common voyage" in LNG shipments in Europe in 2021, International Gas Union has said in a report. As many as 76 LNG shipments were clocked in the Qatar – Italy route last year, IGU said in its ‘World LNG Report 2022’. With additional liquefaction capacity, 2021 was characterised by a resumption of growth in the number of voyages and vessel utilisation, after Covid-19 demand reduction in 2020, IGU noted. A total of 6,708 LNG trade voyages departed in 2021, up 12% from 2020, which in contrast saw little growth from the previous year. Global growth in LNG trade voyages is in line with growth in liquefaction capacity, alongside growing competition between Asia and Europe as LNG demand centres. The number of LNG trade voyages both to Europe and Asia has trended upwards since 2015, with growing year-on-year liquefaction and vessel deliveries. The Panama Canal was widened and deepened in 2016, allowing for more transits. The resulting voyage distance and time from the United States’ Sabine Pass terminal to Japan’s Kawasaki LNG site was reduced to 9,400 nautical miles (nm) and 29 days through the Panama Canal, compared to 14,500nm and 45 days through the Suez Canal and close to 16,000nm and 49 days around the Cape of Good Hope. However, due to the popularity of the route, the Panama Canal has become a bottleneck for this voyage, IGU noted. LNG carriers reduce speed and increase the amount of LNG afloat in a quasi-floating storage as a short-term bridge before winter to meet larger end-of-year demand. High charter rates and boil-off usually lead to storing LNG earlier in the year or for longer periods being uneconomical. Covid-19 led to low LNG shipping charter rates, port closures and excess liquefaction, an environment that allowed for use of LNG carriers at reduced speed or eventually for storage as early as February 2020. This dampened the effect that demand destruction otherwise would have had on vessel utilisation in 2020. In March 2021, the Ever Given container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking the passage for a week. 16 LNG carriers intended to transit through the Suez Canal at this time, some of which made the decision to sail around the Cape of Good Hope instead. There were 4,598 voyages to Asia in 2021, a 10% increase from 2020 driven by stronger Chinese demand amidst a colder winter at the beginning of the year, coupled with a coal shortage and stronger industrial demand towards year-end. European trade voyages grew 11% to 1,435, competing head-to-head with Asia for LNG supply. According to IGU, the most common voyage globally in 2021 was from Australia to Japan, with 452 voyages. This was closely matched with the voyage count from Australia to China, at 447 journeys.

Qatar is expected to record a fiscal balance of 8.6% of GDP this year and 8.8% in 2023, Oxford Economics has said in a report. As for Qatar's current account, Oxford Economics said the country is expected to record a balance of 16.2% of its GDP this year and 14.3% in 2023. Positive fiscal and current account balance indicate that the country's economy is in robust health. According to analysts, positive fiscal balance meant government's revenues exceed its expenditures, whereas the positive current account balance indicates that the nation is a net lender to the rest of the world. The country's real GDP growth is expected to be 3.6% this year and 3.5% in 2023. Inflation will be nearly 3.9% this year and 2% in 2023, Oxford Economics noted. As the US Federal Reserve continues its aggressive hiking cycle, all central banks across the Mena region have tightened monetary policy to tackle rising inflation. Qatar Central Bank (QCB) announced on Wednesday it was raising the deposit rate 75 basis points to 3%, QNA said. It also raised the lending rate 50 basis points to 3.75%. The central bank cited the evolving domestic and international macroeconomic developments as the reason behind the decision. It also increased the repo rate 75 basis points to 3.25%, the Qatari news agency said. The UAE and Bahrain have hiked the most at 75bps, whereas Kuwait continues to be the least hawkish, only raising rates by 25bps. “With inflation continuing to rise, we expect more rate hikes to follow later in the year,” Oxford Economics noted. “Looking forward, we expect policymakers to continue on this tightening cycle until it is certain that inflation has begun to ease. Given the currency pegs to the US dollar, it is also important that policy rates do not fall too far out of step with the US Federal Reserve, which we expect to continue hiking until mid-2023. Separately, a report by Cooper Fitch indicates that job creation grew 10% between first and second quarters (Q1 and Q2) this year in the UAE. This was the largest increase in the Gulf region, with Bahrain second at 9%, Oman at 6%, Qatar at 4%, and Saudi Arabia at 3%. Kuwait's job market experienced a contraction of 2% between quarters, Oxford Economics noted.