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Thursday, November 28, 2024 | Daily Newspaper published by GPPC Doha, Qatar.
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Food inflation in Qatar among world's lowest: World Bank

Qatar’s food inflation was less than 2% year-on-year between July 2022 and May 2023, making it one of the lowest figures globally, World Bank's latest data indicate.In its food price inflation tracker, World Bank said Qatar’s food price inflation stood at 4.8% in July last year, 6.4% (August 2022), 4.6% (September 2022), 1.3% (October 2022), 0.3% (November 2022), 1.5% (December 2022), -0.6% (January this year), -1.9% (February), 0.7% (March), 1.4% (April) and -1.5% (May).In the tracker, a traffic light approach was adopted to show the severity of food inflation, and the colour coding was determined based on historical food price inflation targets and expert consultation with the World Bank Agriculture and Food Unit.Qatar’s colour code is green, which according to World Bank, indicates food price increase is less than 2%.The International Monetary Fund is the core data source for food inflation, supplemented by Trading Economics, World Bank said.Globally, information between February and May this year for which food price inflation data are available shows high inflation in most low- and middle-income countries, with inflation higher than 5% in in 61.1% of low-income countries, 79.1% of lower-middle-income countries, and 70% of upper-middle-income countries, with many experiencing double-digit inflation.In addition, 78.9% of high-income countries are experiencing high food price inflation, according to the World Bank.The most-affected countries are in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia.The agriculture and cereal price indices closed 4% and 12% percent lower compared to a few weeks ago, while the export price index closed at the same level. The decline in the cereal price index was primarily driven by a sharp decline in maize prices, which dropped by 21% compared to a few weeks ago.Wheat prices also declined by 3% while rice prices increased by 1 percent over the same period.On a year-on-year basis, maize and wheat prices are both 19% lower, and rice prices are 16% higher.Compared to January 2021, maize prices are 4% lower, while wheat and rice prices are 1% and 3% higher.In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 79.8% of the 163 countries where data is available, the World Bank noted.The agricultural and cereal price indices closed 4% and 12% lower, respectively, while export price indices closed at the same level as two weeks ago.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development–Food and Agriculture Organisation (OECD-FAO) Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 highlighted the threat to global food security from the surge in agricultural input prices in recent years.One of the key concerns raised in the report is global food insecurity resulting from the surge in agricultural input prices in recent years.The outlook suggests that rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices.

Q-Max LNG carrier Mekaines operated by Nakilat. PICTURE: www.nakilat.com
Business
Nakilat's large ships change global LNG carrier landscape 'dramatically', says IGU

Global LNG carrier landscape changed dramatically when Qatari shipping line Nakilat introduced the Q-Flex (210,000 to 217,000 cm) and Q-Max (263,000 to 266,000 cm) vessels, specifically targeting large shipments of LNG to Asia and Europe, IGU said in a report.The current global LNG fleet is relatively young, considering the oldest LNG carrier operating was constructed in 1977, IGU said in its ‘World LNG report – 2023’.Some 87.7% of the fleet is under 20 years of age, consistent with the rapid growth of liquefaction capacity since the turn of the century. In addition, newer vessels are larger and more efficient, with superior project economics over their operational lifetime.With financial and safety concerns in mind, ship owners plan to operate a vessel for 35-40 years before it is laid-up, although challenges from upcoming emissions reduction regulations (notably, the IMO’s EEXI and CII) could reduce this or incentivise retrofits or conversions.Due to the rapid development of technology and emissions regulations, the life duration may become shorter, IGU noted.At the end of its operating life, a decision can be made on whether to scrap a carrier, convert it to an FSU/FSRU, or return it to operation should market conditions improve materially.When commissioning a newbuild, a shipowner determines vessel capacity based on individual needs, ongoing market trends, technologies available at the time, and increasingly, with a view to future environmental regulations and demand for LNG.Liquefaction and regasification plants also have berthing capacity limits, while certain trade-lanes may limit vessel dimensions, all of which are important considerations regarding ship dimensions and compatibility.The needs of individual ship owners are also largely affected by market demand, which means newbuild vessel capacities have stayed primarily within a small range around period averages.Due to the early dominance of steam turbine propulsion, vessels delivered before the mid-2000s were exclusively smaller than 150,000 cm as this was the range best suited for steam turbine propulsion systems, many of them equipped with ‘Moss-type’ cargo tanks.The LNG carrier landscape changed dramatically when Qatari shipping line Nakilat introduced the Q-Flex (210,000 to 217,000 cm) and Q-Max (263,000 to 266,000 cm) vessels, specifically targeting large shipments of LNG to Asia and Europe.These vessels, IGU noted achieved greater economies of scale with their SSDR propulsion systems, representing the 45 largest LNG carriers ever built.After the wave of Q-Class vessels, most newbuilds have settled at a size between 150,000 and 180,000cm. This capacity range now makes up 62% of the current fleet.The technological developments that steered adoption of this size are two-stroke propulsion systems, such as the ME-GI, X-DF, STaGE and more recently ME-GA types, that maximise fuel efficiency between 170,000 and 180,000 cm.Another crucial factor is the new Panama Canal size limit – only vessels smaller than this size were initially authorised to pass through the new locks, imperative for any ship engaged in trade involving US LNG supply.The Q-Flex LNG carrier ‘Al Safliya’, which is larger than 200,000 cm, became the first Q-Flex type LNG vessel and the largest LNG carrier by cargo capacity to transit the Panama Canal in May 2019.While 174,000 cm remains the most common newbuild size, larger ships have once again gathered interest from ship owners. There are fifteen 200,000 cm vessels currently on order, IGU said.

Travellers at the Daxing International airport in Beijing. Air passenger numbers are expected to double by 2040 as recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is almost complete. Some 4.4bn passengers are expected to fly in 2023 and international traffic has now increased from a standstill in April 2020 to reach about 84% of 2019 levels.
Business
Initiatives to enhance passenger throughput amid surge in air travel demand

Air passenger numbers are expected to double by 2040 as recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is almost complete. .text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[55757]**Some 4.4bn passengers are expected to fly in 2023 and international traffic has now increased from a standstill in April 2020 to reach about 84% of 2019 levels.With passenger numbers expected to double by 2040, the focus has once again turned to aviation infrastructure on the ground.Airports around the world have experienced increasing passenger numbers over the years, driven by factors such as population growth, economic development, and the growing accessibility of air travel. This has led to congestion at many airports, particularly those in major cities or popular tourist destinations.Already, in summer 2022 there were issues with congestion at key nodes in the air transport network.Both London Heathrow and Amsterdam Schiphol were forced to limit flights, for example, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA). In fact, the majority of the top 100 airports are expected to be capacity-constrained by 2030.The demand for air travel is projected to grow significantly in the coming decades, especially in regions like Asia and Africa. This growth could put additional strain on airport infrastructure and operations.To address this issue, airport authorities and governments will have to invest further in expanding and upgrading airport infrastructure, implementing advanced technologies, and adopting more efficient air traffic management systems.With new airports few and far between, especially in mission-critical cities, the industry’s only option to accommodate demand is greatly improving passenger facilitation through the existing airport footprint."Automating manual processes and even moving them off airport will be integral to the success of this initiative," IATA noted.“The main reasons passengers need be checked by airline, airport, and border control agents are for identification, access control and travel documentation checks, such as confirmation of a visa,” points out Alan Murray Hayden, IATA’s director (Airlines, Airports and Security Operational and Compliance Solutions).“But many of these procedures can all be pushed off airport through a combination of 'Timatic' and contactless travel as stipulated by IATA’s One ID initiative,” Hayden says.As early as next year, the International Air Transport Association will roll out an upgraded version of Timatic is a one-stop verification platform that enables airlines to confirm whether a passenger is eligible to fly.Pre-pandemic, more than 700mn passengers per year had their passport details, visa requirements, and other travel-related documentation checked by Timatic.According to IATA, Timatic is integrated in almost all airline departure control systems as part of their check-in process, making it an essential element in speeding up passenger processing times and improving throughput.Typically, about 85% of passengers are green-lighted for travel with various issues red-flagging the remaining 15%. And the whole process is virtually instantaneous, from the latest government requirements being inputted to the outcomes of passenger checks.The new version of 'Timatic AutoCheck' is expected to deliver an improved passenger experience, more efficient operations, and reduced costs.“Before, a passenger trying to check-in online might just have received a note asking them to see an agent,” explains Murray Hayden.“There would have been no explanation, and the situation would have to be resolved at a counter just prior to the flight, causing queues and anxiety.“Now, a passenger will get explicit information about a problem in clear, conversational language and they will have the ability to upload a visa or other details that will allow them to pursue an automated process.”In turn, check-in staff are freed up to deliver more value-added services and there is less likelihood of mistakes being made due to time pressure. Airlines avoid costly fines as a result.Contactless travel, encapsulated by the ‘One ID’ initiative of IATA, is the second crucial element in facilitating increased passenger throughput and processing speed without expanding the airport footprint.One ID will bring multiple benefits to all stakeholders. Passengers will have a much-improved travel experience and no longer need to juggle between different documents.By having the opportunity to share the minimum data necessary with airlines, airports and governments prior to departure, passengers can arrive at the airport ready to fly and can pass all airline touchpoints using biometrics. Queues and repetitive documentation checks will be consigned to the history books.One ID will also enable significant cost savings for airlines and free up staff for value-added services, bringing further commercial opportunities. And governments will benefit from strengthened border control thanks to pre-travel, quality data.Industry experts say the ability of airports to handle increasing passenger numbers and avoid congestion will ultimately depend on the proactive measures taken by airports, governments, and the aviation industry as a whole to address the challenges posed by growing air travel demand.

Qatar was the second top global LNG exporter in June, while leading GECF member countries, according the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. PICTURE: www.qatargas.com
Business
Qatar second top global LNG exporter, top GECF exporter in June

Qatar was the second top global LNG exporter in June, latest data from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has shown.Among the GECF member countries, Qatar topped in liquefied natural gas exports last month.Total global LNG exports reached 32.18mn tonnes during June. The increase in LNG exports from non-GECF countries and a rise in LNG reloads outweighed the lower LNG exports from GECF member countries.The share of non-GECF countries and LNG reloads in global LNG exports increased from 50% and 0.6%, respectively, from a year earlier to 50.4% and 0.8% in June 2023.Conversely, GECF's market share in global LNG exports decreased from 49.4% to 48.8%.During H1, 2023, cumulative global LNG exports reached 205.45mn tonnes, indicating a 4.1% increase (8.06mn tonnes) y-o-y.Last month, the US, Qatar and Australia were the top LNG exporting countries, GECF noted.In June, LNG exports from GECF member countries and observers declined by 1% (0.15mn tonnes) y-o-y, reaching a total of 15.69mn tonnes.The weaker LNG imports were driven by Russia, Egypt, Nigeria, Malaysia, Equatorial Guinea, Norway and the United Arab Emirates.Conversely, LNG exports increased in Qatar, Angola, Algeria, Mozambique, Trinidad and Tobago and Peru.During H1, 2023, cumulative LNG exports from GECF member and observer countries increased by 2.2% (2.13mn tonnes) y-o-y, totalling 99.93mn tonnes.In Russia, higher maintenance activity at the Sakhalin 2 and Yamal LNG facilities led to a reduction in LNG exports, the report said.Lower feedgas availability in Egypt and Nigeria contributed to the decline in LNG exports in both countries.In June, Egypt did not export any LNG cargo.The decline in Malaysia's LNG exports was mainly attributed to weaker exports from the Bintulu LNG facility.An unplanned outage at the Hammerfest LNG facility caused a drop in LNG exports from Norway.On the other hand, lower maintenance activity at the Qatargas LNG and Soyo LNG facilities boosted LNG exports from Qatar and Angola.In Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago, higher feedgas availability supported the increase in LNG exports from both countries.The continued ramp-up in LNG exports from the Coral South FLNG facility drove Mozambique's LNG exports higher.In June, global LNG imports expanded sharply by 6.8% (2.09mn tonnes) y-o-y to reach 32.85mn tonnes.This growth was primarily driven by a strong rebound in Asia Pacific's LNG imports, with higher imports in Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) also having some contribution. Conversely, the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region experienced a decline in LNG imports.During the first half (H1) of 2023, cumulative global LNG imports grew by 4% (7.95mn tonnes) y-o-y to 206.62mn tonnes.The bulk of the increase in global LNG imports during H1 2023 came from Europe, followed by Asia Pacific, LAC and North America. This offset the lower LNG imports in the Mena region, GECF noted.

A view of the Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar's principal site for the production of liquefied natural gas and gas-to-liquids (file).  IGU noted that liquefaction plants in the Middle East ran at high utilisation rates over the year, with Qatar and UAE performing at 107% and 99% respectively.
Business
Qatar LNG liquefaction plants achieve 100%-plus utilisation rates in 2022: IGU

Qatar’s LNG liquefaction plants achieved utilisation rates in excess of 100% in 2022, the International Gas Union (IGU) said in its ‘2023 World LNG Report’.IGU noted that liquefaction plants in the Middle East ran at high utilisation rates over the year, with Qatar and UAE performing at 107% and 99% respectively.Global operational liquefaction capacity totalled 478.4mn tonnes per year (MTPY) as of end-2022 with the utilisation rate averaging 89% of pro-rated capacity, a notable increase compared to 80.4% in 2021.Global liquefaction plants have seen higher utilisation rates following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict at end-February 2022 with Europe increasing LNG imports to offset reduced piped gas flows from Russia.At the same time, some export facilities have been running below average.For example, IGU noted that a fire at the Freeport LNG export facility in the US took the liquefaction plant offline for several months from June 2022.In Australia, a fire and employee strike at Prelude FLNG led to sporadic liquefaction production disruptions with similar issues or technical hurdles seen at NLNG in Nigeria, Snohvit LNG in Norway and MLNG in Malaysia.As a result, operational liquefaction plants maximised LNG production to meet surging European LNG demand leading to a high price premium compared to other regions worldwide.Despite outages and upstream supply disruptions, nine out of 22 LNG exporting markets achieved higher-than-average utilisation rates in 2022.Besides Qatar and the UAE, these included Cameroon, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Oman, Equatorial Guinea, the US and Australia.Liquefaction plants in the US were fully utilised in 2022 with a utilisation rate of 100% compared to 103% in 2021. This was despite Freeport LNG going offline in the second half of 2022, suggesting the loss of its export volumes was partially offset by increased supply from other operational liquefaction plants in the US.This, IGU said, was also boosted by Calcasieu Pass LNG which added total capacity of 10 MTPY in February last year.Liquefaction plants in other regions that did not operate above average utilisation rates in 2022 were constrained by feedgas supplies from linked upstream fields, unexpected maintenance, or industrial action, which limited liquefaction production levels through the year, IGU said.In Africa, utilisation at the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) liquefaction plant averaged 67% in 2022, after averaging 72% in the first half of 2022 and 61% in the second half of 2022.The reduced overall rate was caused by significant flooding across its upstream gas supplies’ production regions, which required several gas production wells to be shut.NLNG has experienced multiple outages since August 2022 and declared force majeure from October 2022 to end-November 2022.In Australia, the 3.7 MTPY Darwin LNG (DLNG) operated by Santos experienced issues with feedgas supply from the Bayu-Undan gas field.Gas production from the Bayu-Undan gas field is estimated to cease at end-2023 with the operator considering backfilling options to support future LNG production once Bayu-Undan has been fully depleted.Santos had decided to proceed with the $311mn Darwin pipeline duplication project to enable gas from its offshore Barossa field to flow to DLNG with the first gas expected in H1,2025.Offshore Australia, Prelude FLNG (3.6 MTPY) performed far below capacity last year with its utilisation rate averaging just 32%.It followed a four-month maintenance period from December 2021 to early April 2022 after a fire. Production was halted again due to industrial action which lasted from June to late August 2022. Another fire-related shut-down occurred in December 2022 following a 46-day maintenance period, causing Prelude’s production to remain muted, IGU noted.

Gulf Times
Business
GCC issuers waiting for 'best launch window' for sukuk issuance: S&P

GCC issuers are waiting for the “best launch window” for sukuk issuance, S&P Global has said in a report.Issuance of sukuk denominated in foreign currency was up about 9% in the first half (H1) of 2023, thanks to Saudi Arabia and a few new issuers.S&P now anticipates further issuance this year, since some Gulf issuers are already prepared, just waiting for the best launch window.S&P now forecast global issuance will total $160bn to $170bn this year, which is higher than its initial estimate of $150bn, but still slightly below the figure in 2022 as local currency sukuk issuance declines.In the first half of this year, total issuance was down by 17.5% to $83.2bn compared with $100.7bn in the same period last year.“We continue to expect muted issuance activity overall. We have revised upward our estimate of sukuk issuance to $174.1bn from $155.8bn in 2022 by better capturing the volume of local currency-denominated issuances.“However, issuance volumes are still lower than in 2021. Year on year, the market saw a drop of almost 25% in the first half of 2023, primarily due to lower issuance by the Saudi Arabian government. We think liquidity constraints in the Saudi banking system in the first half of the year was the main reason for this, since it implies subdued local demand.“We saw a marginal decline in the UAE and also in Turkey, where we think this related more to the environment amid the legislative and presidential election. In the UAE, we note that the federal authorities issued their first local currency-denominated sukuk during the period.“We expect to see more such issuance in the next few years as the UAE authorities continue efforts to develop the local capital market.”Despite less supportive market conditions, S&P saw foreign currency-denominated sukuk increase by about 9% in the first half of this year. This stemmed from sovereign and government-related entities, as well as from banks tapping the sukuk market to ease liquidity pressure in Saudi Arabia.S&P also saw a couple of new issuers reach the finish line. Egypt tapped the sukuk market for the first time in a transaction that was priced in a similar manner to conventional bonds.US-based Air Lease Corp also tapped the market during this period, using some of its leased aircrafts as underlying assets.“We expect to see more traction in the foreign currency sukuk market in the second half of 2023. Many issuers in the Gulf are on the lookout for opportunities the market may have to offer. They are also seeking to benefit from the current rates situation, under the assumption that central banks are not yet done with inflation and further rate hikes may be on the horizon,” S&P added.

Gulf Times
Business
Digital payment system gains solid ground in Qatar as cheque processing declines: QCB

Digital payment system is gaining solid ground in Qatar, QCB data reveal as the percentage of cheques processed to the total electronic fund transfers in the country declined from 63% in 2018 to 38% in 2021.In its 13th Financial Stability Report, the Qatar Central Bank said this “underscores the shift in consumer preference for digital payment methods” in the country.Despite introducing several electronic payment methods, cheques traditionally remained as one of the preferred payment modes in Qatar for a large segment of the population mainly because “cheques are considered as a sort of guarantee” on future payments, the QCB noted.However, the use of cheques in Qatar has been consistently declining relative to other electronic payment modes.The changes associated with Covid-19 have further accelerated the transition away from cheques as more people opted for digital alternatives.In terms of absolute value, the number of cheques processed in the Electronic Cheque Clearing System (ECCS) in 2021 remained at 3.95mn, marginally lower than the last year.Of which, 33,000 were high-value cheques with a face value of more than QR1mn and they were settled in RTGS on a gross basis. As in the previous year, the small value cheque payments with a face value of less than QR10,000 accounted for a major chunk (57.1%) of the total volume.Similarly, the large value cheque payments with a face value of more than QR100,000 accounted for 7% of total transactions, but in terms of the value, they accounted for 78% of total payments settled in 2021.The QCB noted that during the year, Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) settled 462,000 large value electronic transactions worth QR2.2bn on a gross basis, a growth of 35% in volume and 1.8% in value over the previous year.In addition, RTGS settled batches of net interbank obligations arising from other payment systems and large value cheques on a gross basis.The QCB manages a number of payment and settlement systems such as RTGS, ECCS, QATCH that facilitates fund transfers, NAPS (National ATM and Point of Sale Switch) that acts as an electronic payment gateway for switching and settling of ATM/POS/e-commerce transactions and the Qatar Mobile Payment System (QMPS).As in the previous years, RTGS and NAPS continued to remain the most systemically important systems with RTGS handling 82.2% of the total customer and interbank payments in value terms and NAPS handling 91.1% of the payments in terms of volume, the QCB noted.

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker leaves the dock after discharging at PetroChina's receiving terminal in Dalian, Liaoning province, China. In 2022, Qatar accounted for bulk of Middle East to Asia LNG trade at 36.1mn tonnes, which was 9.1mn tonnes higher than in 2021, according to IGU.
Business
Qatar accounts for bulk of LNG supplies to Asia in 2022: IGU

LNG trade between the Middle East and Asia was the third largest globally in 2022, with Qatar accounting for bulk of the supplies, the International Gas Union (IGU) said in its ‘2023 World LNG Report’ released on Wednesday.Middle East to Asia LNG trade accounted for 40.6mn tonnes in 2022, up 6.7mn tonnes on the year before, IGU said.Qatar accounted for bulk of the LNG exports at 36.1mn tonnes, which was 9.1mn tonnes higher than in 2021, IGU noted.In 2022, global LNG trade flows continued to be dominated by intra-Asia Pacific trade (97.9mn tonnes), mainly driven by a rise in exports from Australia to Japan (31.2mn tonnes), South Korea (11.6mn tonnes), Chinese Taipei (7.6mn tonnes) and from Malaysia to Japan (11.8mn tonnes).Most of the remaining supply from Asia Pacific went to Asia (37.8mn tonnes) as seen in previous years.Exports from Australia to China alone totalled 22.8mn tonnes in 2022.Notably, Asia Pacific shipped 0.2mn tonnes to Europe, including one cargo from Australia to the Netherlands, one cargo from Indonesia to France and one from Indonesia to Turkiye.“Despite being a long distance with high shipping costs, the cargoes helped meet Europe’s immediate needs for LNG to offset lower Russian piped gas volumes,” IGU said.The second-largest LNG interregional trade flow was from North America to Europe at 55.2mn tonnes, a 148% increase compared to 2021, again largely compensating for Europe’s loss of Russian piped gas volumes.North America sent 14.2mn tonnes to Asia Pacific (6.2mn tonnes to South Korea and 4.4mn tonnes to Japan) and only 1.9mn tonnes to China.IGU report indicated trade from the Middle East to Asia Pacific fell to 30.7mn tonnes last year from 36.3mn tonnes in 2021.Africa prioritised Europe’s need for LNG in 2022, exporting 28.6mn tonnes to Europe, compared to 23.8mn tonnes in 2021.By contrast, African exports to Asia fell to 4.3mn tonnes last year from 11.4mn tonnes in 2021, mainly driven by a reduction in exports there from Egypt (-3.1mn tonnes), Nigeria (-1.5mn tonnes) and Angola (-1.4mn tonnes).Even though Russia pipeline exports to Europe fell significantly in 2022, Russian LNG exports to Europe increased by 2mn tonnes to 14.8mn tonnes.The second largest offtaker of Russian LNG was the Asia Pacific region, which imported 11.5mn tonnes from Russia in 2022. Most of Russia’s remaining LNG went to Asia, with China the main customer.Europe was the largest offtaker of LNG from Latin America, receiving 5mn tonnes of LNG from the region, a 95% or 2.4mn tonnes increase compared to 2021.In Europe, Norway was the sole LNG producer after bringing Snøhvit LNG back online in mid-2022 following an outage.Norway exported all of its 2.7mn tonnes of LNG output to Europe last year, IGU noted.

The survey collected bank’s opinion on the level of risk on various risk factors. Seven risk factors are provided under ‘global risks’ while six factors are provided under domestic macroeconomic risks.
Business
Majority of Qatari banks consider cyber risks 'high to very high', says QCB

Majority of Qatari banks consider “risks from cyber world” has "high to very high risk", Qatar Central Bank (QCB) said in its Financial Stability Report.Vulnerabilities on account of ‘risk from fraud’ is also considered to be reckoned among high risk factors as opined by banks, QCB said in its ‘Risk perception survey – 2022’.The Risk Perception Survey (RPS) was conducted among 16 banks including the Qatar development Bank.The survey collected bank’s opinion on the level of risk on various risk factors. Seven risk factors are provided under ‘global risks’ while six factors are provided under domestic macroeconomic risks.The survey also sought bank’s opinion on various risk elements on ‘credit risk’, ‘liquidity risk’, ‘market risk’ and ‘operational risk’. The risk levels are captured through a five-point ‘Likert scale’ ranging from ‘very low’ to very high’.The responses received on each risk variables are converted into an index ranging from 0 to 100, where zero represents no risk and 100 represents very high risk as per the opinion of the surveyed banks.The heat map on “global risks” suggests uncertainty around Covid-19 pandemic’ is considered as very high risk in 2021.However, the risk levels will have been moderated in 2022 and further reduce in 2023 as expected by the banks.According to QCB, ‘geopolitical uncertainties’ and ‘uneven global recovery’ are considered as next major risks in 2022 and 2023.Among the domestic macroeconomic risks ‘reduction in market liquidity’ is considered as the major risk event by the respondents followed by "volatility in equity market" and "fall in residential/commercial property prices".In 2023, banks consider fall in property prices will be major risk event followed by lower domestic growth.The survey also captured banks perception on the major risk factors from the given set of events pertaining to credit, liquidity, market, and operational risks.Among the given vulnerabilities, “default from real estate developers” and ‘default from large borrowers” are considered by majority of the banks as the major risk factors.“Deposit withdrawal from wholesale depositors” is considered as the major risk factor in case of liquidity risk, QCB said in its 13th Financial Stability Review.“Banks also opined that the risk level due to ‘reduced liquidity inflows from foreign inter- bank market’ may increase in 2022 and 2023. Among market risk factors, interest rate shock from domestic and developed countries are of high risk and the risk level is expected to (have) increased in 2022 and increase in 2023,” QCB noted.

NAPS
Business
NAPS processes 148mn debit card transactions worth QR92.1bn in 2021: QCB

Qatar's National ATM and Point of Sale System (NAPS) processed 148mn debit card transactions worth QR92.1bn in 2021, up 23% on 2020, according to the Qatar Central Bank's 13th Financial Stability Review.Almost two-thirds of these transactions were merchant payments performed at POS terminals deployed across the State by the banks and other e-commerce transactions.However, in terms of the value, ATM transactions accounted for more than half of the total NAPS payments and the ATM transactions saw an increase in 2021 compared to the previous year, indicating that cash payments in the economy were gaining momentum again, after a sharp decline seen during 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.The e-commerce payments through the QCB’s QPay system continued to grow as in the previous years.In 2021, transactions through the QPay channel, grew by 53% whereas the number of transactions through the ATM channel grew by 8.4% and the POS transactions grew by 25.5% as compared to the previous year.The seamless support extended by the financial institutions and the merchants in providing contactless card payments for in-store and online purchases to the consumers during the pandemic to avoid cash and contact with payment terminals as well as more and more merchants moving to e-commerce platforms attributed to such a large-scale migration from cash payments to POS and e-payments, the QCB said.The retail payment system QATCH that facilitates the settlement of bulk direct credit and direct debit transactions handled nearly 10mn transactions in 2021.As in the previous years, transactions processed in QATCH grew in both value (13.8%) and volume (13.6%) terms over the previous year.NAPS is primarily used for the settlement of interbank merchant payments and ATM transactions. NAPS connects all automated teller machines (ATMs), point-of-sale (POS) terminals, and payment gateways offered by the local banks to a central payment switch that in turn re-routes the debit card transactions between a merchant’s bank and the card issuer bank and settles the transactions on central bank money.In addition, the system supports routing and settling of GCC interbank debit card transactions.

Gulf Times
Business
Transactions processed in QCB's payment and settlement systems total QR4.4tn in 2021

The total number of transactions processed in various payment and settlement systems of the Qatar Central Bank amounted to QR4.4tn in 2021, the QCB said in its 13th Financial Stability Review.The usage of electronic payment methods in Qatar has increased significantly in recent years due to changes in consumer behaviour in view of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the regulatory measures initiated by QCB.As a result, the number of transactions processed in various payment and settlement systems operated by the QCB crossed 162mn in 2021 compared to 133.5mn transactions processed in 2020, registering an overwhelming growth of 21.7%.“This was primarily characterised by the increased usage of debit card transactions,” QCB noted.Of the total transactions, customer payments accounted for 45.8%, followed by central bank operations (39.6%) and other interbank payments (15.2%).The QCB manages a number of payment and settlement systems such as Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), Electronic Cheque Clearing System (ECCS), QATCH that facilitates fund transfers, NAPS (National ATM and Point of Sale Switch) that acts as an electronic payment gateway for switching and settling of ATM/POS/e-commerce transactions and the Qatar Mobile Payment System (QMPS).As in the previous years, RTGS and NAPS continued to remain the most systemically important systems with RTGS handling 82.2% of the total customer and interbank payments in value terms, and NAPS handling 91.1% of the payments in terms of volume.Although the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic had a marginal impact on payments volume, particularly in the first and second quarters of 2021, overall, the year witnessed a sharp increase in volume and a moderate growth in value indicating that the Qatar economy is indeed in the growth trajectory.While the total value of customer payments grew by 4.3% in 2021, that of interbank payments remained unchanged, the QCB said.Regarding the central bank market operations, as in the previous years, the value and volume of QMR deposits remained much higher than those of QMR loans indicating that the banking system had adequate liquidity during the year, the QCB noted.

QNB Financial Services (QNBFS) continues to remain “positive” longer-term on the Qatari market due to the country's macro strengths and expects flat second quarter normalised earnings for listed companies but a strong rebound in the remaining part of the year
Business
QNBFS continues to remain 'positive' longer-term on Qatari market primarily on country's macro strengths

QNB Financial Services (QNBFS) continues to remain “positive” longer-term on the Qatari market due to the country's macro strengths and expects flat second quarter normalised earnings for listed companies but a strong rebound in the remaining part of the year.“While the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) second quarter (Q2) reporting season should generally be perceived positively, it is unlikely to drive near-term equity performance as the economy readjusts from elevated oil/gas prices and World Cup related activities. Global monetary conditions and recession fears should also continue to dominate sentiment,” QNBFS said in an earnings preview.While QNBFS expects the market to remain "volatile", it continues to remain "positive" longer-term on the Qatari market due to the following reasons.First, sanctions by Western countries on Russia are still causing global oil and gas supply concerns. While the recent US banking turmoil has increased global recession fears with oil and gas prices teetering at their lows since late 2021 (although recent Opec+ cuts will likely provide a floor), resilient consumers/labour markets and China’s reopening negates some of these effects.Overall, still decent oil and gas prices should lead to higher government revenue/surplus for Qatar, enable flexibility in government expenditures and improve overall money supply (liquidity).Second, with the recent successful hosting of the World Cup, perceived as one of the best editions and putting Qatar in the global spotlight, QNBFS is of the view that pockets of Qatari stock market should benefit from this success.Some of the impact has been immediate, with Qatar registering record visitor arrivals thus far this year.Third, over the medium- to long-term, the North Field Gas Expansion, a nascent but growing tourism/sporting sector and the Qatar National Vision 2030 investments will continue to be major growth drivers for local companies.Fourth, on top of Qatar’s macro strengths, Qatari companies enjoy robust balance sheets backed by low leverage and decent RoEs, while Qatari banks stand out with their exceptional capital adequacy ratios, strong provision coverage and high profitability. This should help as global monetary conditions remain tight.Fifth, the proposal by the QIA and General Retirement and Social Insurance Authority (GRSIA) recently announced restructuring their local equity portfolios, worth up to $3bn under a separate entity in a bid to increase market liquidity, is a potential tailwind for the overall stock market.Such a move could lead to a minimum of $500mn in inflows according to market estimates. Additionally, also in May, the QIA committed up to QR1bn over five years to establish a permanent market-making programme.This builds on the successful initial initiative launched in September, and is set to run over the next five years covering about 90% of the QSE market capitalisation.Qatari valuations are looking cheaper historically and we stay bullish longer-term on Qatari equities given their defensive characteristics backed by their strong fundamentals.The QSE’s aggregate valuation metrics look attractive considering the fact that QNBFS does not see any marked near-term earnings recession. Even as the economy moderates, it notes the QSE’s current PE is lower than its historical median.Moreover, from a technical viewpoint, the QSE has not experienced two consecutive down years since 2001 – it has, on average, returned 19.6% the year following a negative annual performance, though with a wide range of 0.1% to 37.2%, QNBFS noted.“We expect Q2, 2023 earnings for Qatari stocks under coverage to decline 21.4%/5.5% YoY/QoQ. The YoY decline in earnings mostly stems from Industries Qatar (IQCD’s) skewed base effects with its profit expected to more than halve; otherwise, we see flat earnings on the back of a moderating but strong economy, the ramping up of Qatar’s massive LNG expansion project as well as some pockets of post-World Cup momentum.“Overall, excluding IQCD from aggregate earnings, we expect normalised aggregate earnings for our coverage universe to edge lower by 0.8% YoY/ 3.0% QoQ,” QNBFS said.

Bait Al-Mashura vice-chairman Prof. Dr. Khalid bin Ibrahim al-Sulaiti
Business
Islamic finance assets in Qatar grow 6.5% to QR635bn in 2022: Bait Al-Mashura

Islamic finance assets in Qatar grew 6.5% reaching QR635bn last year, ‘Islamic Finance in Qatar Report 2022’ by research firm Bait Al-Mashura Finance Consultations has shown.Islamic banks accounted for 87% of such assets, while Islamic sukuks accounted for 11.3%, Bait Al-Mashura noted.According to the report, the assets of Islamic banks’ grew 7.3% in 2022, reaching QR544.3bn, deposits grew 1.6%, totalling QR317.8bn and financing increased by 12.3% amounting to QR380.5bn.In the takaful insurance sector, the assets of such companies amounted to approximately QR5bn, registering a growth of 11.9%.Policyholders’ assets amounted to approximately QR2.6bn with a growth of 8.9%. Insurance contributions reached QR1.5bn, an increase of 9.3%.The business of takaful insurance companies “varied” between achieving insurance surpluses amounting to approximately QR73.4mn and an insurance deficit amounting to QR5.7mn.In Islamic finance companies, the assets amounted to QR2.5bn, down by 1.9%. Financing provided by these companies last year decreased by 3.3%, amounting to QR1.69bn.Revenues amounted to QR224.5bn, up 2%, revenues from financing and investment activities accounted for 90% of such total revenues. In Islamic investment companies, their assets grew by 1.3%, amounting to QR509mn last year.Their revenues amounted to QR62.3mn, a growth of 52.8%, and their profits exceeded QR16mn, Bait Al-Mashura said in its report.Issued Islamic sukuks decreased by 48%, as Islamic banks stopped issuing sukuks during 2022, the report said.Qatar Central Bank issued sukuks amounting to QR5.4bn during the year, down 29% on 2021.Bait Al-Mashura vice-chairman Prof. Dr. Khalid bin Ibrahim al-Sulaiti asserted that Islamic Finance endeavour to establish a “fair financial system” that promotes moral values and strives for the economic well-being of the individual and society on the basis of transparent, well-governed foundations.Transparency and clarity are fundamental pillars for stakeholders in legitimate financial transactions. Hence, the role of reports that support such a purpose and illustrate the weaknesses and strengths in the industry, development, and innovation areas.“We, at Bait Al-Mashura, are keen to strengthen such rules, which are considered a basic starting point for researchers, interested parties, and even institutions, through our series of reports, research, and studies that discuss the Islamic finance sector in Qatar, and give a clear picture of its reality and a forward-looking vision for its future,” al-Sulaiti noted.He stated that Qatari economy outperformed projections in 2022, expanding at a rate of 4.8%. Qatar’s Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) estimates that the country's GDP at constant prices (2018) reached QR690.1bn, up from QR658.3bn in 2021.At current prices, the GDP rose to QR863.8bn, up 32% on 2021. The projected GDP growth rate for fiscal 2023 is anticipated to surpass 3%.“The financial and insurance activities sector made a significant contribution to the GDP, accounting for 8.1% of the total. This amounted to QR70.4bn at current prices, representing a growth rate of 11.9% compared to the previous year’s QR62.9bn,” Bait Al-Mashura noted.

Qatar Executive's growth has been represented by a tremendous increase in commercial sales revenue and total live lying hours, fleet growth, improvements made to better serve passengers lying with QE, and a record number of arrivals and departures at the Doha International Airport QE Premium Terminal
Business
Qatar Executive sees 'significant' year-on-year growth in fiscal 2022-23

Qatar Executive (QE), the VIP charter jet division of Qatar Airways, has seen significant year-on-year growth in fiscal 2022/23, the national airline said in its annual report.This has been represented by a tremendous increase in commercial sales revenue and total live lying hours, fleet growth, improvements made to better serve passengers lying with QE, and a record number of arrivals and departures at the Doha International Airport QE Premium Terminal.Fiscal 2022-23 was also a year “truly like no other” for Discover Qatar (DQ), the report said.“Through meticulous planning and extensive preparation, the team enhanced its customer-centric focus to deliver excellence. Over the past 12 months, DQ delivered a multitude of logistical arrangements and tourist experiences before and during the hugely successful FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, to a wide variety of visitors and customers including FIFA delegates, tour operators, commercial partners, sponsors, and football fans,” the report noted.Over the period of the tournament, Qatar Airways operated some 14,000 flights bringing more than 2.4mn fans from all six continents to Qatar, to witness the greatest sporting show on Earth.Some 5bn fans engaged with the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 across the tournament delivering vast media return on investment to the Qatar Airways brand and more than 63% media return than the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia.The social media engagement of the tournament increased followers by more than 83%.Located conveniently within a six-hour light from more than 80% of the world’s population, Hamad International Airport (HIA) is “ideal” for business or leisure travellers.HIA Phase B expansion started in January this year, and will see airport capacity increase to 70mn passengers annually.At the 2023 Skytrax World Airport Awards, HIA was ranked the Second-Best Airport in the World and World Best Airport Shopping.Additionally, HIA was ranked Best Airport in the Middle East for the ninth time in a row.

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association.
Business
Middle East airlines see 30.8% y-o-y traffic increase in May: IATA

Strong air travel growth continues in May as load factor rises to 2019 levels, IATA said an noted Middle Eastern airlines saw a 30.8% traffic increase compared to the same period last year.For Middle Eastern airlines, capacity climbed 25% and the load factor pushed up 3.6 percentage points to 80.2%. The region is leading the recovery with May traffic at 17.2% above 2019 levels.Total traffic in May 2023 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 39.1% compared to May 2022. Globally, traffic is now at 96.1% of May 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels.Domestic traffic for May rose 36.4% compared to the year-ago period. Total domestic traffic in May was 5.3% above the May 2019 level. This is the second month in a row domestic traffic has exceeded pre-pandemic levels.International traffic climbed 40.9% versus May 2022 with all markets recording strong growth, led once again by carriers in the Asia-Pacific region. International RPKs reached 90.8% of May 2019 levels, with Middle East and North American airlines exceeding pre-pandemic levels.The total industry load factor rose to 81.8%, led by North American carriers at 86.3%.“We saw more good news in May. Planes were full, with the average load factors reaching 81.8%. Domestic markets reported growth on pre-pandemic levels. And, heading into the busy Northern summer travel season, international demand reached 90.8% of pre-pandemic levels,” noted Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.“People need and love to fly. The strong demand for travel is one element supporting a return to profitability by airlines. In 2023 we expect airlines globally to post a $9.8bn net profit. It’s an impressive number, particularly after huge pandemic losses.“But a 1.2% average net profit margin is just $2.25 per departing passenger. As a return, that is not sustainable in the long-term.Moreover, it appears that, while the pandemic has changed many things in aviation, it has not righted aviation’s famously unbalanced value chain. The latest indication came last week as European airports announced a $7bn collective profit in 2022.In comparison, IATA estimates that European airlines made a $4.1bn profit for the same year.“We don’t begrudge any business hard-earned profits. But this does raise an interesting question. Is airport economic regulation effectively defending the public interest when a monopoly supplier (airports) can generate seemingly much healthier returns than the competitive businesses (airlines) they supply? Governments should at least take a look,” Walsh said.

Passengers board a plane at Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock, Arkansas. Recent IATA data show that there was one unruly incident reported for every 568 flights in 2022, up from one per 835 flights in 2021. The most common categorisations of incidents in 2022 were non-compliance, verbal abuse and intoxication.
Business
Spike in unruly passenger incidents worries airlines; bad behaviour rises sharply in 2022

Strengthening passenger traffic following the removal of Covid-19 restrictions in major markets is certainly good news for the industry, which has been decimated by the pandemic.text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[48451]**since early 2020.Increasing traffic, however, sees a worrying trend of a rise in unruly passenger incidents, which spiked in 2022 compared with the year before.Recent IATA data show that there was one unruly incident reported for every 568 flights in 2022, up from one per 835 flights in 2021. The most common categorisations of incidents in 2022 were non-compliance, verbal abuse and intoxication.Physical abuse incidents remain very rare, but these had an alarming increase of 61% over 2021, occurring once every 17,200 flights.Unruly passenger incidents will have a significant impact on the airline industry. These include disruption of flight operations, safety and security concerns, and increased costs, regulatory and legal consequences.When an unruly passenger disrupts the normal course of a flight, it leads to delays or even diversions. Pilots and crew members will then need to take immediate action to ensure the safety and security of all passengers, which results in unplanned landings or changes in flight routes.Obviously, this disruption causes inconvenience to other passengers and lead to scheduling challenges for the airline.“The increasing trend of unruly passenger incidents is worrying,” IATA, the global body of airlines, says.IATA’s deputy director general Conrad Clifford noted: “Passengers and crew are entitled to a safe and hassle-free experience on board. For that, passengers must comply with crew instructions. While our professional crews are well-trained to manage unruly passenger scenarios, it is unacceptable that rules in place for everyone’s safety are disobeyed by a small but persistent minority of passengers. There is no excuse for not following the instructions of the crew.”Although non-compliance incidents initially fell after the mask mandates were removed on most flights, the frequency began to rise again throughout 2022 and ended the year some 37% up on 2021. The most common examples of non-compliance were smoking of cigarettes, e-cigarettes, vapes and puff devices in the cabin or lavatories, failure to fasten seat belts when instructed, exceeding the carry-on baggage allowance or failing to store baggage when required and consumption of own alcohol on board.The association has put in place a two-pillar strategy for the much needed zero-tolerance approach to unruly behaviour. This revolves round regulation and guidance to prevent and de-escalate incidents.Regulation: Ensure governments have the necessary legal authority to prosecute unruly passengers, regardless of their state of origin and to have a range of enforcement measures that reflect the severity of the incident.Such powers exist in the Montreal Protocol 2014 (MP14), and IATA is urging all states to ratify this as soon as possible. To date, some 45 nations comprising 33% of international passenger traffic have ratified MP14.Guidance to prevent and de-escalate incidents: Prevent incidents through collaboration with industry partners on the ground (such as airports, bars and restaurants and duty-free shops), including for example awareness campaigns on the consequences of unruly behaviour.Additionally, share best practices, including training, for crew to de-escalate incidents when they occur. A new guidance document was published (in 2022) gathering best practices for airlines and providing practical solutions to governments on public awareness, spot fines, and fixing jurisdiction gaps.“In the face of rising unruly incident numbers, governments and the industry are taking more serious measures to prevent unruly passenger incidents. States are ratifying MP14 and reviewing enforcement measures, sending a clear message of deterrence by showing that they are ready to prosecute unruly behaviour. For the industry’s part, there is greater collaboration. For example, as the vast majority of intoxication incidents occur from alcohol consumed prior to the flight, the support of airport bars and restaurants to ensure the responsible consumption of alcohol is particularly important.“No one wants to stop people having a good time when they go on holiday—but we all have a responsibility to behave with respect for other passengers and the crew. For the sake of the majority, we make no apology for seeking to crack down on the bad behaviour of a tiny number of travellers who can make a flight very uncomfortable for everyone else,” Clifford added.Collaborative efforts among airlines, regulatory bodies, and law enforcement agencies are therefore crucial to maintain safety, security, and the overall integrity of the airline industry.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar converges towards developed nations' performance in UNCTAD Productive Capacities Index

Qatar is gradually converging towards the performance of developed countries in United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’ Productive Capacities Index, a report by UNCTAD has shown.PCI measures countries’ abilities to produce goods and deliver services, which are critical for international trade and global production value chains.Along with Qatar, some economies like Chile and China also converge gradually towards the performance of developed countries with the average score of 61.The PCI shows that developed economies have higher productive capacity scores, with economies such as Denmark, Australia and the United States leading the pack with an average score of 70 out of 100 on the composite index.On the other extreme are African economies such as Chad, Malawi and Niger, which each register an overall PCI score of below 20.Among developing regions, Asia and Latin America, overall, perform better than the African region.PCI maps the productive capacities of some 194 economies and provides a better measure of development than other traditional benchmarks such as gross domestic product (GDP). It’s multidimensional and measures economic inputs and potential as opposed to outputs.For governments, the PCI is a powerful and practical tool to track progress over time and forge informed policies to plug development gaps. It can help countries respond to a call by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to move beyond GDP and measure the things that really matter to people and their communities.UNCTAD secretary-general Rebeca Grynspan said: “No nation has ever developed without building the required productive capacities, which are key to enabling countries to achieve sustained economic growth with accelerated poverty reduction, economic diversification and job creation.”UNCTAD defines productive capacities as “the productive resources, entrepreneurial capabilities and production linkages that together determine the capacity of a country to produce goods and services and enable it to grow and develop.”According to UNCTAD, countries need reliable tools that respond to changing global conditions. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and climate change, external shocks increasingly affect countries’ abilities for sustainable development.While headline economic indicators like GDP capture economic production as a measure of output, the PCI takes a novel approach to measuring development progress.Originally released by UNCTAD in 2021, the newly updated index is an enhanced data-driven tool to help countries improve their development policies. It follows a robust, revised methodology and updates the data for the period 2000 to 2022.The PCI has helped several developing countries to assess their productive capacities and develop programmes to plug gaps.

Qatar’s fiscal breakeven point has ranged between $35 and $55 per barrel of crude oil over the past decade. Hence the government has recorded large annual fiscal surpluses in most years, except for 2016-2017 when oil and gas prices had been persistently low for some time, says Allianz Trade.
Business
Qatar's debt-to-GDP ratio may fall further on economic recovery: Allianz Trade

Qatar's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall further in the wake of economic recovery, Allianz Trade said and noted the country’s fiscal reserves remain solid.Qatar’s fiscal breakeven point has ranged between $35 and $55 per barrel of crude oil over the past decade. Hence the government has recorded large annual fiscal surpluses in most years, except for 2016-2017 when oil and gas prices had been persistently low for some time.Even in 2020 a small surplus of +1.3% of GDP was achieved. The surplus widened to around +4.4% in 2021 and Allianz Trade estimates it to have increased to more than 10% in 2022, thanks to surging gas prices.Allianz Trade projects continued robust surpluses close to 10% of GDP in 2023-2024. Meanwhile, public debt rose from 25% of GDP in 2014 to 73% in 2020, in part due to declining nominal GDP. However, the debt-to-GDP ratio eventually declined to 58% in 2021 and Allianz Trade expects it to fall further over 2022-2024 in the wake of the economic recovery.Yet, in a recent forecast Allianz Trade noted the ratio to remain elevated and it should be monitored closely. Overall, however, Qatar will remain a large net external creditor, thanks to the huge foreign-asset position in the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, a sovereign wealth fund currently estimated at approximately $475bn).According to Allianz Trade, Qatar’s external liquidity will remain unproblematic in the next two years. Qatar has recorded large, sometimes huge annual current account surpluses for more than two decades, with the exceptions of 2016 and 2020 when global oil and gas prices were particularly low. These surpluses have contributed to the build-up of the QIA.Higher oil and gas prices moved the current account back into a surplus of nearly +15% of GDP in 2021 and more than 20% in 2022. That ratio is likely to narrow somewhat in 2023-2024 but should remain well in the double digits.Meanwhile, external debt is relatively high; it rose to 126% of GDP in 2020, incurred by oil and gas investments since the 2000s, but repayment obligations are unlikely to present liquidity problems, Allianz Trade said.The ratio is estimated to have fallen to approximately 84% in 2022 and should decline further. The annual debt-service-to-export-earnings ratio is forecast at a manageable 16% or so in 2023. “Financial resources will remain strong. The combined FX reserves of the central bank and the QIA represent over 200% of annual GDP and cover more than 80 months of imports,” Allianz Trade added.