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The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva expressed confidence that the United States will reach a deal on the debt ceiling and avoid a default.At a panel session at the Qatar Economic Forum Wednesday Georgieva urged central banks around the world to keep monetary policy tight in the face of inflation risks.“History tells us that US will wrestle with this notion of default but come the 11th hour it gets resolved. And I have confidence we will see that play it again. But such high uncertainties are unnecessary for the global economy. We should be mindful that the risk is there.”The US government could fall behind on its bills next month - and even default on its debt - if Congress doesn't raise a $31.4tn cap on government borrowing, a failure that could trigger economic calamity and panic on global financial markets, a Reuters’ dispatch said.The latest round of talks on the debt ceiling between representatives of President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans ended without progress on Tuesday, as the June 1 deadline inched closer."History tells us that the US would wrestle with this notion of default... but come the 11th hour it gets resolved and I have confidence we will see that play again," Georgieva said.Finance ministers from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who joined Georgieva for the panel discussion, agreed that a resolution was needed sooner rather than later.Georgieva said that the US dollar is likely to remain a global reserve currency despite increasing discussion on moves by countries to reduce their reliance on the greenback, known as "de-dollarisation"."This story of de-dollarisation has been with us for some time. The dollar has been going slightly down. It was 70% of reserves, but now it is slightly below 60% of reserves. Understandably, there are other currencies gaining.“We don't expect a rapid shift in (dollar) reserves because the reason the dollar is a reserve currency is because of the strength of the US economy and the depth of its capital markets...Don't kiss your dollars goodbye just yet," Georgieva said.The IMF chief said while headline inflation generally was going down, the core inflation primarily because of stubbornly high food prices is still not trimming down the way it should.“What that means is that the central banks should stay the course. Because if they move back on interest rates prematurely, then inflation may become a problem for growth for a longer period of time. So, stay put...the interest rates are high...they will stay high for longer...but we are expecting in 2024 or early 2025 the picture to change.Georgieva Wednesday met His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.Qatar has pledged 20% of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings towards the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and Resilience Support Trust (RST) mechanisms for financial support, Georgieva said on Twitter.SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement other reserve assets of member countries. According to the IMF website, Qatar has SDR holdings of 985mn."The pledge made today would allow the IMF to expand concessional lending to low income countries and expand lending to vulnerable-to-climate-shocks countries," Georgieva said in a video shared by the Qatar News Agency.

The GCC region has the potential to emerge as a "global trade hub", considering its unique geographical location, noted Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohamed al-Jadaan.Speaking at a panel session at the Qatar Economic Forum Wednesday, al-Jadaan emphasised that the GCC region is in the middle of cross-trade routes that connect Asia, Africa, and Europe.“That gives you a competitive advantage. And we are actually seeing it in the number of ports listed in the top 10 worldwide, and they are from the region. The Gulf region has possibly the busiest airports worldwide in terms of international passenger traffic,” al-Jadaan said. The GCC region, he said, is a "very bright spot in a very difficult world today."“This did not come by coincidence. It came through very strong progress executed through long-time co-ordination, to diversify the economy.”He complimented Qatar for the hugely successful conduct of the FIFA World Cup and noted, “We are all proud of it.”“When I landed here (Doha) the previous night, I could not believe the developments that have happened here.”Al-Jadaan touched upon the kingdom’s long-term infrastructure development plans outlined in its Vision 2030, which focuses on diversifying the economy away from hydrocarbon resources.He said investing in infrastructure is part of Saudi’s long-term plans.“And we are not keeping it to ourselves. Actually, we are trying to make sure that not just the GCC, but the wider region gets benefits.”Al-Jadaan also highlighted the developmental milestones Saudi Arabia achieved over the past few years and said the kingdom was the fastest-growing economy among the G20 countries in 2022.Unemployment is the lowest-ever in Saudi Arabia, while employment in the private sector is the highest-ever, he noted.Al-Jadaan further pointed out that women’s participation in Saudi Arabia’s workforce is currently 36%, which is double the figure from five years ago.On the United States’ debt ceiling crisis, he said: “I hope wisdom will prevail and prevail sooner (rather than later) ... it is not easy to play with the international markets, and when they catch a cold, everybody will sneeze.”

Supply chain problems have hampered the aviation industry that relies heavily on a complex and interconnected global system to operate efficiently..text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[33917]**Problems encountered by the aviation industry due to supply chain issues include component and parts shortages, increased costs, delays in aircraft production, maintenance and repair challenges, reduced service quality, risk of counterfeit or substandard parts and impact on global operations.Two leaders of the global aviation industry highlighted the impact of global supply chain issues at the ongoing Qatar Economic Forum.Supply constraints in the airline industry could drag on for more than half a decade, delaying deliveries to airlines and hampering the industry’s rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, Boeing Company president and CEO David L Calhoun said.Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker said that along with delays of new jet deliveries, supply constraints are also a hurdle for existing fleets, forcing airlines to ground some planes that need spare parts for everything from engines to avionics.“This is all the consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic,” al- Baker noted.Calhoun said: “I can see supply constraints for a very long time. We have backlogs that go out five to six years so if the backlogs would suggest supply constraints that far, that means it’s even further.”Calhoun noted it could take until the end of 2024 to iron out sector-wide supply chain problems that have hampered global jetliner production."Priority one for the two airplane manufacturers is stability," Calhoun said and noted: “We have to resolve the supply chain issues and the surprise associated with it; and we have to resolve it sort of once and for all.”"That is not a short-term job. It sounds like it might be, but I think it could take all of this year and probably all of next year."Calhoun's latest projection on the speed of recovery in the supply chain echoes comments by Airbus chief executive officer Guillaume Faury, who recently said that production would regain pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2024 or even in 2025.Despite the overall pattern of disruption, Calhoun said he did not think recent manufacturing problems with the best-selling 737 narrow-body jet would defer those production schedules for more than "maybe a month or a month and a half".Obviously, the aviation industry requires a wide range of components and parts to maintain and repair aircraft. Supply chain disruptions, such as delays or shortages in the production or delivery of these items, lead to grounded aircraft and extended maintenance periods, affecting flight schedules and overall operational efficiency.Supply chain disruptions result in increased costs for airlines. These disruptions cause price fluctuations in raw materials, components, and fuel.Additionally, airlines incur additional expenses to expedite shipments, find alternative suppliers, or manage inventory disruptions. Such cost increases put financial strain on airlines, potentially leading to higher ticket prices for passengers.Industry analysts say the manufacturing of aircraft involves a complex supply chain network spanning multiple countries and suppliers.Any disruption within this network, such as delays in the delivery of critical components, cause delays in aircraft production. This impact airlines' fleet expansion plans, their ability to retire older aircraft, and overall fleet optimisation.Timely maintenance and repair are crucial for aircraft safety and operational reliability. Supply chain issues lead to difficulties in sourcing the required spare parts, equipment, and qualified technicians.Extended downtime for maintenance or limited access to essential resources obviously reduce the availability of aircraft, impacting airlines' ability to meet their flight schedules.Supply chain disruptions also affect the overall service quality provided by airlines. For example, delays in catering services or the availability of in-flight amenities result in a diminished customer experience. In turn, this impacts customer satisfaction, loyalty, and the airline's reputation in the industry.When supply chain disruptions occur, analysts say there is a higher risk of airlines resorting to alternative or unfamiliar suppliers to fulfil their needs. This increases the possibility of acquiring counterfeit or substandard parts, which can compromise the safety and reliability of aircraft systems. Ensuring the authenticity and quality of components becomes challenging during such disruptions.The aviation industry operates on a global scale, with airlines relying on international suppliers and logistics networks. Supply chain issues, such as trade disputes, customs regulations, or geopolitical tensions, disrupt the flow of goods and services across borders.These disruptions then lead to operational inefficiencies and difficulties in coordinating international operations.Addressing these supply chain challenges requires collaboration and proactive measures from airlines, manufacturers, suppliers, and regulatory bodies.Improved contingency planning, diversified sourcing strategies, robust inventory management, and enhanced communication and co-ordination among stakeholders are essential to mitigate the impact of supply chain issues on the aviation industry.

Qatar has “shown global leadership” by pledging 20% of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings towards International Monetary Fund’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and Resilience Support Trust (RST) mechanisms for financial support, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said Wednesday.SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement other reserve assets of member countries. According to the IMF website, Qatar has SDR holdings of 985mn, according to Reuters."The pledge made today would allow the IMF to expand concessional lending to low income countries and expand lending to vulnerable-to-climate-shocks countries," Georgieva said in a video shared by the Qatar News Agency.Meanwhile, the official announcement between the State of Qatar, represented by the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), titled State of Qatar’s SDRs commitment to the IMF, was issued Wednesday during the third edition of the Qatar Economic Forum.“The announcement demonstrates State of Qatar’s leadership role in supporting least developed countries overcome economic shocks and challenges,” Ministry of Finance said in a statement.“The global economy faces unique uncertainties, such as high inflation, increasing debt vulnerabilities, rising poverty and inequality, slowing growth and tighter financial conditions. These challenges require additional resources to be addressed, stemming notably from the rising south-to-south economy and the new growth opportunities it presents to the global business community.“The State of Qatar recognises these rising needs and has continued to deliver on its commitment to strengthen multilateral action to address the current challenges with the aim to contribute to the new global growth story,” Ministry of Finance said.

Supply constraints in the airline industry could drag on for more than half a decade, delaying deliveries to airlines and hampering the industry’s rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, Boeing Company President and CEO David L Calhoun said in Doha Tuesday.Speaking at a panel session at the Qatar Economic Forum 2023 powered by Bloomberg, Calhoun said, “I can see supply constraints for a very long time. We have backlogs that go out five to six years so if the backlogs would suggest supply constraints that far, that means it’s even further.”Calhoun noted it could take until the end of 2024 to iron out sector-wide supply chain problems that have hampered global jetliner production."Priority one for the two airplane manufacturers is stability," Calhoun said and noted, “We have to resolve the supply chain issues and the surprise associated with it; and we have to resolve it sort of once and for all. That is not a short-term job. It sounds like it might be, but I think it could take all of this year and probably all of next year."On future developments, Calhoun said the industry was unlikely to introduce all-new jet designs before the mid-2030s."I think in our industry, because of some of the constraints both in propulsion and the design of the wing, it's going to be at least until the mid-2030s before we – in this case I'm just going to assume my competitor – will call out that airplane,” Calhoun noted.Aircraft manufacturers have struggled to increase production at a time when airlines are clamouring for new jets to meet the surge in demand for travel, Bloomberg said in a dispatch.Component shortages have restricted output as Boeing and arch-rival Airbus SE struggle to scale up production. Calhoun said only after the industry has regained what he called stability — a process that will take about a year and a half — can it really ramp up production rates.Asked whether the aviation industry will be able to achieve net zero emission by 2050, Calhoun said, “The only real contributor by way of engine technology is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). That’s the only needle that will move between now and then. There will be advanced technologies – hydrogen included.”

HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi said Qatar potentially will run out of gas for supplies from the North Field expansion by the year-end, because of “very big demand” for long-term contracts.“We have signed a large contract with China. We have other deals that we are working on. With so many deals lining up, we will potentially run out of gas from the North Field – both North Field East and North Field South. There is very big demand. Additional gas from the North Field will be available by 2026; all contracts have been awarded,” al-Kaabi said at a ministerial session at the Qatar Economic Forum Powered by Bloomberg in Doha Tuesday.The expansion project will increase Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity from 77mn tonnes per year (MTPY) to 126 MTPY, through the North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) expansion projects, with first LNG expected by 2026.Qatar will add 65mn tonnes per year of LNG to meet the growing needs of the world from its North Field expansion and its project in the United States, al-Kaabi said.“We don’t follow what others say we should do...we do what is technically possible with our fields. When it’s the right time and technically we can do it, we’ll definitely do more,” the minister said.Talking about the gas supply and demand situation in future, al-Kaabi said, “There is going to be a shortage in oil and gas in future, predominantly due to the push on (energy) transition. It is really aggressive without studying it. If you look at economic and environment stability, these are not mutually exclusive... we have to have both.“And if you push some countries into doing that, that doesn’t help humanity in general. The only thing that saved humanity and Europe this year was a warm winter and the slowdown in the economy worldwide. If the economy comes back in 2024, the worst is yet to come,” said al-Kaabi.“If you look at future, whether it is oil or gas, because of decade-long lack of investments, due to the push to transition of energy, there is going to be shortage for both.”Al-Kaabi emphasised the need to have a “mix” of all energy resources and said, “You need a mix of all energy sources and people need to realise that you need oil, gas and renewables. People talk about renewables as if it’s a fix-all.“If you look at renewables you can generate electricity from wind and solar, but you can’t make plastics or any sort of such products. So by saying renewables generate electricity does not solve the problem, you need a proper energy mix. And it can’t be driven by politics and politicians wanting to get in the seat to say this is the solution. It’s a nice pitch to say energy transition, but when you dig down and look at the reality, it’s not achievable.”Al-Kaabi said he was "thrilled" that the G7 final communique spoke about the need for more LNG for the world and warned the world would face a shortage of oil and gas due to a lack of investment."I am thrilled that finally the G7 in their final communique said they need more LNG to be supplied to the world. We've been saying this for the last 10 years,” al-Kaabi noted.

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is examining artificial intelligence (AI) as a theme of investments and sees it as a "wonderful technology" in some applications, CEO Mansoor Ebrahim al-Mahmoud said Tuesday.Participating in a panel session at Qatar Economic Forum powered by Bloomberg he said, “From time to time we tell our teams to look at those things that are important and are coming. Make sure we build a portfolio that tap into this field. For example, the same thing for climate change, digitalisation, life science. These are long term themes.”In terms of AI, al-Mahmoud said: “We have been investing there. I think the level of using the AI in terms of extreme in that the machine will do everything...personally I have a mixed feeling about it. I feel we need some sort of legislation that could manage this.“But it is a wonderful technology in some applications such as marketing, or understanding businesses.“We (Qatar) are one of the leading countries in the region in terms of digitilisation and connectivity infrastructure that we have. We would like to really tap into this as a strength of the country to make sure that we can attract and invest in technologies such as Fintech.”QIA, al-Mahmoud said, has been very active in private and public credit over the past two years."Companies that have been feeling the tide, they have good business models but they have an issue with their balance sheet because of this acceleration of hikes of interest rates," al-Mahmoud noted."So normally institutions like us, which are very liquid, very long term, have a risk appetite in these types of investment. I would advise that for the next maybe one year, the credit space would be an interesting space to deploy some investment," al-Mahmoud said.Al-Mahmoud also expects the Adani Group to get through "smoothly".Earlier, the Indian conglomerate was pummelled by a US short seller (Hindenburg Research) critical report and lost billions of dollars in market value.

The airline industry’s impact on global economy and people’s lives is huge, Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker said Tuesday.Participating in a panel session at Qatar Economic Forum powered by Bloomberg he said: “People will travel and are still dependent on aviation because it plays such a large part of our life for leisure, business, trade and economic development. There is no alternative to airplanes,” al-Baker noted.Referring to the debate on sustainability, especially in Europe, al-Baker said: “In one of the climate conferences a young girl wanted to prove to the world that they do not need planes and they can use the boat and she arrived at this conference in a boat. But where did she start the journey on the boat? How did she get there?“Majority of the distance she covered was on the airplane because she could not cover that distance on the boat for the time she wanted to be at the conference. I don’t want to criticise her, but we have to be realistic,” al-Baker said.Asked whether the aviation industry will be able to achieve net-zero emission by 2050, al-Baker noted: “I don’t think we will be able to achieve net zero emission by 2050. Everybody is talking about it. But let us be realistic. There is not enough production of SAF. The hydrogen project is in its infancy. People also do not know what hydrogen will generate when it flies at a high altitude.“The hydrogen technology is expected to mature by the second half the century. Which means, after 2050. So, I am sceptical about this.”In an interview with Bloomberg TV, al-Baker said Qatar Airways is ramping up routes to Europe, Africa, Asia, and big time in to China. Our fleet is already very young, so we can extend their operations further and when new technology that will be introduced we will then place orders for airplanes.”“In relation to China, not only are our airlines are packed. Now that the lockdown has ended in China there is a huge appetite for the Chinese to travel out of China. The amount of money they spent at our duty free shops is more than any other nationality. So, you can see the potential Chinese market holds for the international aviation industry, and at the same time, for the retail trade around the world,” al-Baker told the Qatar Economic Forum.

Ashghal (Public Works Authority) is gearing up to launch projects worth QR4.1bn in the third quarter of the year, Jarallah Mohamed al-Marri, director, Building Projects Department said on Monday.Addressing a media event convened to announce the 19th edition of Project Qatar in Doha (from May 29 to June 1) al-Marri said the projects included development of Hamad General Hospital and some health centres.“The Public Works Authority is participating in Project Qatar exhibition with a special pavilion for the seventh year in a row, through which it is displaying the achievements of the authority in infrastructure projects,” al-Marri noted.He said, “The strategic partnership of the authority with Project Qatar comes within the authority’s vision to enhance communications and partnerships with various private sector companies that contribute to the implementation of projects in the country. We look forward to the exhibition being an opportunity to meet a wide group of consultants, contractors and suppliers with whom the authority can co-operate in the future. Local entrepreneurs and local products are our first priority.”Ahmed Mohamed al-Sada, director, Office of the chief executive officer and Public Relations Department at Qatari Diar, which is the developer of Lusail City project said, “Qatari Diar is participating for the second year in a row as a sponsor of real estate development in the exhibition. This participation is based on the successful participation last year, as we hope that this session will be an opportunity for us to present our latest and most prominent projects around the world to the audience, especially regional and international visitors, many of whom we had the opportunity to meet in last year's session.”

The 19th edition of Project Qatar, nation’s largest and most prominent construction exhibition, will be held from May 29 to June 1 at the Doha Exhibition and Convention Centre, it was announced on Monday.The event will bring together 120 international exhibitors from 25 countries and feature eight official country pavilions and 200 local companies, led by major governmental and semi-governmental companies and prominent private sector companies in Qatar.This year’s event will be held under the patronage of HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani with the support of Ministry of Commerce and Industry and in partnership with Public Works Authority (Ashghal).IFP Qatar, trade fair and conferences organiser, announced details of the 19th edition of Project Qatar at a media event attended by senior officials and representatives of sponsors from public and private sectors.Haidar Mshaimesh, general manager, IFP Qatar, said the organisers expected thousands of visitors at the four-day event. On all the four days, visitors can access the exhibition from 2pm to 9pm.“Qatar's construction industry presents enormous prospects, particularly under the Qatar National Vision (QNV) 2030, the government's strategic growth plan. The framework intends to transform Qatar into a self-sustaining diverse economy that is less dependent on oil.“The 19th edition of Project Qatar is expected to play a significant role in achieving the goals of QNV 2030 by highlighting regional products and the importance of Qatari industry to the national economy. With the assistance of the government, the event presents several opportunities for local and foreign contractors to expand across Qatar.“In addition, there will be great possibilities for Qatar to attract foreign direct investments. We are excited to meet top exhibitors and visitors from around the world who will be offering cutting-edge solutions for the industry.”Major participants at the event include Ashghal as the strategic partner, Qatar Tourism (Hosted Buyers Sponsor) Qatari Diar (Property Development Sponsor), Qatar Development Bank (Leading Sponsor), Qatar Free Zones Authority (Free Zones Partner), Suhail Industrial Holding Group (Industrial Partner) Al Sraiya Holding Group (Platinum Sponsor), Midea (Diamond Sponsor), Milaha, QTerminals, Hamad Bin Khaled (HBK) Contracting, Abdullah Abdulghani & Bros, (Silver Sponsors), Modern Home Company the official distributors of Hisense (HVAC Sponsor), Gulf Organisation for Industrial Consulting (GOIC Industrial Consulting Sponsor), Vodafone Qatar (Exclusive Telecom Sponsor) and Gulfcrafts (Innovative Branding Sponsor).Some 25 countries are participating in this year’s session, eight of which are represented by official national pavilions, which are led by Kuwait’s Public Authority for Industry, Italy’s Italian Trade Agency (ITA), Turkiye’s Ministry of Commerce, and Iran’s Trade Development Organisation (TDO) along with China, Russia, India, and Pakistan.The exhibition will also welcome international delegations from several countries, including the Gulf Co-operation Council countries, Turkiye, Iran, India, China, and others.As a major platform for Qatar's construction industry, Project Qatar 2023 will also introduce four specific conferences.The first edition of Q Industry, a conference that promotes domestic production and manufacturing of materials and equipment vital to the construction industry, as well as the second editions of Q Invest, and Q Tech, along with the ninth edition of Q Green, will be held during the exhibition.The media event was addressed by Jarallah Mohamed al-Marri, director, Building Projects Department at Ashghal; Ali Mohamed al-Kuwari, vice-president, (Marine and Industrial Equipment) Milaha; Ahmed Mohamed al-Sada, director, Office of the chief executive officer and Public Relations Department at Qatari Diar; Noor Shahdad, Group Corporate Communications director, Q Terminals; Shadi Afif, chief development officer, Suhail Industrial Holding Group; Emad Chen, managing director, Midea; Yazan Mustafa, chief operating officer, Commercial and Industrial Division, Abdullah Abdulghani & Bros Company; and Anastasia Volokhova, brand strategy manager, Gulfcrafts.

Qatar's budget surplus is seen at 9.6% of GDP this year based on 2023 revised forecast for Brent crude at $87 a barrel, researcher Oxford Economics said in its latest forecast.The country's budget based on an oil price $65, projects a surplus equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, Oxford Economics noted in its latest country report.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar's government ran a surplus of QR89bn (10.3% of GDP) in 2022.Annual inflation slowed to 4% in March, from 4.4% in February after prices rose 0.3% month-on-month (m-o-m). Food and transportation prices eased on a sequential basis, underpinning the slowdown in the annual print, but recreation and culture as well as housing and utilities categories rose.The trends are consistent with Oxford Economics CPI forecast of 2.3% this year, and the researcher expects a further decline below 2% in the medium term.The Qatari economy will slow to about 2.6% this year and in 2024, down 0.1ppt from last month, following stronger-than-expected 2022 growth, according to Oxford Economics.Survey data point to resilient demand and strong expectations, which Oxford Economics believes will support economic activity. Consequently, Oxford Economics has left its non-oil sector growth estimates broadly unchanged at 3.2% this year and next.The latest GDP statistics show the economy grew by 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2022, above its 4.1% estimate, following a jump of 8% in the fourth quarter (Q4).Energy GDP rose a surprising 4.8% y-o-y in Q4, the strongest pace since first quarter (Q1) 2012.The non-energy sector more than doubled that pace, growing 9.9% y-o-y during the quarter, as the World Cup fuelled activity in accommodation, transport, and trade industries. This brought non-oil growth for the year to 6.8%, higher than the researcher’s 6.3% projection.Balance of payments data for Q4, 2022 confirmed a surge in services exports at the end of last year and resilient goods trade.As a result, the 2022 current account surplus hit a record $63.1bn (26.6% of GDP). Meanwhile, the period of divestment from Qatar appears over following the best quarterly FDI inflow since 2012. “We expect these positive trends to continue this year and next, though lower commodity prices imply both the external and fiscal surpluses will narrow,” Oxford Economics noted.The non-energy sector expanded by 6.8% in 2022, exceeding Oxford Economics’ 6.3% projection and marking the fastest pace since 2015.But growth will slow to 3.2% this year as momentum eases after the World Cup, maintaining a similar pace in 2024-25.Tourism will be among the sectors that will support non-oil recovery this year, thanks to major events, including the Asian Football Cup and Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix, and in the medium term.Qatar attracted 2.56mn tourists in 2022, and data for January and February show foreign arrivals were about three and four times higher than in the respective months last year, Oxford Economics noted.

Qatar’s banking sector risk is among the lowest in the Middle East, a new report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has shown.Qatar’s banking sector risk is the second lowest in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region and the entire Middle East (with the exception of Israel), EIU noted in its latest report. Only Saudi Arabia (risk score 33) is ahead of Qatar (38) in this regard.Middle Eastern banks have “limited direct exposure” through investment in equities or bonds linked to financially stressed institutions in North America and Europe, it said.GCC commercial banks had less than 5% of total assets and less than 3% of total liabilities involving US counterparts at the end of 2022, and although they have increased their financial links to European financial services providers in recent years—especially Saudi Arabia following an aggressive outreach strategy—their overall exposure remains manageable.Banking sectors in the region’s key business and finance hubs located in the GCC states especially Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Riyadh and Kuwait City — appear “well positioned” to withstand the shocks emerging from financial markets in Europe and North America.“These hubs hold the region’s key financial institutions and most developed banking industries and have started 2023 on a strong financial footing,” EIU noted.For instance, EIU said total assets, customer deposits, net loans and net interest income — the difference between interest earned from lending activities and interest paid to depositors — for GCC listed banks have been on an upwards trajectory since the start of 2021 and these performance measures reached record highs in the fourth quarter of 2022.The outlook for the banking industry in 2023 across the GCC and Israel looks reasonably bright given the expectation of strong international energy demand and associated investment and exports,recovering tourism industries, buoyant non-energy business activity, major public and private investment programmes, and a continued boom in initial public offerings (IPOs), which had a bumper year in 2022.Moreover, the GCC banking sector is likely to benefit from stable exchange rates and relatively low inflation, as well as the prospect of further consolidation across the industry amid the push to create lenders with larger revenue streams and operating efficiencies capable of supporting ambitious diversification agendas.According to EIU, banks across major markets in the Middle East retain ample financial buffers in terms of core capital-adequacy ratios, liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios.All these measures were comfortably above the minimum required levels as set out under Basel III requirements for banking sectors in aggregate and for major individual banks in 2022.In addition, and specifically in the GCC, banks tend to rely much more on relatively stable domestic funding sources from government, corporate and retail depositors rather than external, market-sensitive finance — a characteristic that provides them with a degree of certainty and stability for core funding sources.Banks across the Middle East retain the backing of governments with an active presence in the financial services sector, which can prove crucial in times of need to curtail runs on banks caused by depositors and investors seeking to withdraw funds or exit their investment positions.This is especially the case in the GCC, where governments have a track record of stepping in with considerable support during times of need, as seen during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.For their part, GCC states have sought to improve financial services sector regulation and comply with international best practice to help to attract foreign investment and set the foundation for a stable environment that supports their own development and diversification agendas.The Middle East has fared better than other regions during previous periods of financial instability, such as the global financial crisis of 2008. Limited direct exposure to risky foreign investments, a focus on traditional lending and savings mobilisation, strong regulation and financial buffers, and prompt and forceful policy action proved beneficial in the past and will provide some protection once again.Moreover, limited integration into the global financial system of the region’s weaker states should militate against direct effects through the financial system.However, an escalation of the current financial difficulties in major developed markets and a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions would most likely affect the Middle East through second-round effects and in various ways.The region’s developed and developing banking sectors would probably suffer impacts on income statements and balance sheets caused by a contraction in global economic activity, trade and investment, volatile and bearish international energy markets, plunging overseas and domestic asset prices — including equities and real estate — and softer domestic business activity.The Middle East’s major banking industries would remain well capitalised, but profitability and asset quality would probably suffer, to the detriment of regional economic growth and stability, EIU noted.

Qatar’s medium-term growth is likely to rise to around 4–4.5% after the North Field expansion starts boosting LNG production, International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report released on Thursday.Aided by buoyant export revenue and public spending, Qatar’s fiscal and external current accounts are projected to be in surpluses throughout the medium term, IMF said.The report, which was issued after a visit to Qatar by a team led by IMF’s Ran Bi in early May, said, “After very strong growth in 2022 boosted by the World Cup, the economy is expected to normalise in the near term while the outlook remains relatively favourable.Real GDP growth is expected at 2–2.5% in 2023–24 on robust domestic demand and the ongoing LNG expansion, with inflation moderating gradually to around 3%.”Risks to Qatar’s outlook are broadly balanced. Downside risks stem mainly from an unfavorable global environment, including a sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown, tighter and more volatile global financial conditions, increased commodity price volatility, and further worsening of geopolitical tensions.On the upside, accelerated reform efforts guided by the 3rd National Development Strategy, to be unveiled in the summer of 2023, could boost productivity and promote economic diversification. Sustained high hydrocarbon prices would further strengthen the outlook.“Fiscal discipline has been broadly maintained in 2022, with most of the hydrocarbon windfalls saved and overall expenditure largely kept within the budget envelope. As a result, fiscal surplus rose to around 10% of GDP in 2022, from close to zero in 2021. Central government debt declined by 16 percentage points to around 42% of GDP during the same period.“The 2023 budget balances continued discipline and sustaining domestic demand, with a broadly unchanged wage bill and cuts in public investment from 2022 outturns. The upcoming medium-term budget, for 2023–25, will be developed following the release of the 3rd National Development Strategy to balance aspiration for transformation and fiscal discipline.”IMF noted that a decade of the nation’s efforts to diversify the economy culminated in the successful hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Qatar managed the Covid-19 pandemic well, providing a safe environment for the first major global sport event since the pandemic.Qatar is well placed to leverage the top-notch infrastructure built and capitalise on the momentum and visibility created by the World Cup as the government lays out its 3rd National Development Strategy to help achieve the ambitions of Qatar National Vision 2030.“Qatar has smoothly navigated the recent global economic and market volatility. The Russian war in Ukraine highlighted risks from geopolitical tensions, including the impact on energy prices, and the role of natural gas in safeguarding energy security, opening up opportunities for Qatar. The banking sector turmoil originating from the U.S. has had only a limited and temporary impact on the domestic financial system,” IMF noted.While in Doha, the IMF team met with HE the Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari, HE the Governor of Qatar Central Bank Sheikh Bandar bin Mohammed bin Saoud al-Thani, other senior government officials, and private sector representatives.

Qatari banks’ reliance on non-resident deposits has progressively fallen by more than one-third (nearly $30bn) since their peak registered in late-2021, the International Monetary Fund said in its country report released on Thursday.The completion of World Cup-related projects and hydrocarbon windfalls have reduced credit demand from the public sector and provided additional liquidity to banks, reducing their funding needs. The Qatar Central Bank has implemented several macro-prudential measures since (spring of) 2022 to discourage banks from relying on non-resident deposits, especially of short tenors.The report was issued after a visit to Qatar by a team led by IMF’s Ran Bi in early May.As domestic monetary policy has tightened, consistent with the currency peg to the US dollar, banks’ asset quality, liquidity and profitability remained solid, and their reliance on nonresident deposits has fallen.“QCB has maintained price and financial stability. Monetary policy has been tightened broadly following the US Federal Reserve, consistent with the currency peg to the dollar. Monetary policy transmission has strengthened through more effective liquidity management.“Banks remain well-capitalised, liquid and profitable, although the non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio has edged up amid monetary policy tightening. Relatively high provisioning for NPLs, on the other hand, mitigates the risk,” IMF said.Qatar’s AML/CFT mutual evaluation, completed in February, confirmed that the nation has made significant progress on technical compliance with the FATF Standards, while more work is needed to further improve the effectiveness.The ambitious structural reform agenda underpins Qatar’s economic diversification efforts to build a more inclusive, knowledge-based and greener economy.“Structural reforms have advanced further to achieve Qatar National Vision 2030, including in green financing and digitalisation. The Ministry of Finance has developed a Sovereign Green Financing Framework with a clear set of principles," the report said.The QCB has created a dedicated department to define the ESG policies, standard reporting framework and management of ESG risk and compliance. Related initiatives at the national level involving main regulatory bodies are being assessed. Qatar has also successfully capitalised on the 2022 FIFA World Cup to upgrade its digital infrastructure.The Investment Promotion Agency of Qatar embarked on partnerships to accelerate digital transformation and foster technological innovation domestically, including through FDI. The QCB recently launched the National Fintech Strategy, with detailed guidelines and standards under development, IMF noted.

India’s aviation industry is always seen as one that offers growth potential, but it faces significant challenges and can also be brutally competitive.While India’s largest airlines Air India and IndiGo have been attracting headlines due to their ambitious growth plans, some of the country’s other airlines are grappling with serious financial challenges.Air India’s recent moves to order 470 aircraft signals that it is back in expansion mode, and data show competitor IndiGo has about the same number of aircraft remaining on its order books.They are both looking to tap into the strong demand potential in the Indian market, but their growth strategies will also put more pressure on India’s smaller airlines, points out CAPA Centre for Aviation.“Many of these airlines are already in difficulties,” CAPA Centre for Aviation noted.Go First airline has entered voluntary bankruptcy, due partly to long-running fleet problems that are out of its control.Another airline Spicejet is mired in court disputes as aircraft lessors seek unpaid fees, and Jet Airways faces looming deadlines to keep its relaunch hopes alive.As competition continues to heat up in the Indian domestic market, the question is whether all these players can survive, or whether further consolidation will be required among the smaller independent airlines.Undoubtedly, India's growing middle class and increasing disposable income have led to a significant rise in domestic and international air travel. As more people can afford to fly, the demand for air travel is expected to continue growing.But analysts say India’s airline industry faces a myriad of problems including financial instability, intense competition, infrastructure constraints particularly in regional areas, regulatory complexities, rising fuel costs, pilot shortage and high operational costs.One of the major issues plaguing the Indian airline industry is financial instability. Most airlines in India have struggled with high operating costs, intense competition, and fluctuating fuel prices.Many carriers have faced losses and accumulated substantial debt, leading to financial distress and even bankruptcy in some cases.India's airline industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. This competition often leads to price wars, making it difficult for airlines to maintain profitability.Low-cost carriers have emerged as strong competitors, offering competitive fares and capturing a significant portion of the market.India's aviation infrastructure has struggled to keep pace with the rapid growth of the airline industry. Congested airports, inadequate runway capacity, and a lack of modern facilities in many tier two and tier three airports have led to operational challenges and delays.Limited infrastructure development in smaller cities and towns also hampers the expansion of air connectivity to underserved regions.Industry experts say the Indian aviation sector operates under complex and restrictive regulations, which can hinder growth and increase operational costs.Regulatory approvals, bureaucratic processes, and taxation policies can be cumbersome and time-consuming for airlines. Streamlining and simplifying regulations would help the industry to flourish.In energy-deficit India, fuel prices are a significant cost component for airlines, and the volatility of fuel prices poses a constant challenge in the highly price-sensitive Indian market. Fluctuations in oil prices on the global market impact operating costs and profitability.Fuel taxes and surcharges imposed by the government also add to the burden, making it difficult for airlines to manage costs effectively.Like many other emerging markets, India is experiencing a shortage of skilled pilots, primarily due to the rapid expansion of the airline industry.As airlines add more aircraft to their fleets, finding qualified and experienced pilots becomes increasingly challenging. The scarcity of pilots can lead to flight cancellations, disruptions, and increased costs for airlines.To support its ambitious growth plans, Tata Group, the new owner of Air India, plans to set up an aviation training academy to rival those considered the best worldwide.Already there are talks about Air India setting up its own ground handling division to meet the airline's future needs.While major cities in India have relatively good aviation infrastructure, regional areas lack adequate facilities and air connectivity.Limited airports, poor infrastructure, and inadequate air services restrict the growth potential of these regions. Developing airports and improving connectivity to smaller cities would help stimulate economic growth and tourism.Airlines in India face high operational costs due to various factors, including expensive airport charges, high taxes, and maintenance expenses.Additionally, the country's complex tax structure and regulatory environment contribute to increased operational costs, impacting airlines' profitability and competitiveness.That said, India's airline industry has a favourable environment for growth, driven by factors such as increasing disposable income, urbanisation, government support, infrastructure development, and the potential of the low-cost carrier segment. By capitalising on these opportunities and addressing challenges, the industry can flourish and contribute to the country’s economic development.However, addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach involving policy reforms, infrastructure development, and strategic management by airlines.That requires government support in terms of favourable policies, regulatory simplification, and infrastructure investment. These would be instrumental in nurturing a more sustainable and competitive airline industry in India.Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn

Second highest passenger growth is expected in the Middle East region during the summer travel holiday season, IATA’s forward bookings data indicate.An IATA survey covering 4,700 travellers in some 11 countries shows that 79% said they were planning a trip in the June-August 2023 period.While 85% said that peak travel season disruptions should not be a surprise, 80% said that they expected smooth travel with post pandemic issues having been resolved.Forward bookings data indicates that greatest growth is expected in Asia Pacific region (134.7%) followed by Middle East (42.9%), Europe (39.9%), Africa (36.4%), Latin America (21.4%) and North America (14.1%).IATA survey has seen “high levels of confidence” among travellers for the peak Northern summer travel holiday season. This corresponds with first quarter of 2023 forward bookings data for May – September, which is tracking at 35% above 2022 levels.IATA’s senior vice-president (Operations, Safety and Security) Nick Careen said, “Expectations are high for this year’s peak Northern summer travel season. For many this will be their first post-pandemic travel experience. While some disruptions can be expected, there is a clear expectation that the ramping-up issues faced at some key hub airports in 2022 will have been resolved. “To meet strong demand, airlines are planning schedules based on the capacity that airports, border control, ground handlers, and air navigation service providers have declared. Over the next months, all industry players now need to deliver.”Collaboration, sufficient staffing and accurate information sharing are all essential to minimise operational disruptions and their impact on passengers. The key is ensuring that the capacities which have been declared and scheduled are available.“A lot of work has gone into preparing for the peak Northern summer travel season. Success rests on readiness across all players in the supply chain. If each player delivers on what has been declared, there should be no last minute requirements to reduce the scale of the schedules that travellers have booked on,” said Careen.Labour unrest, particularly in France, is cause for concern. Eurocontrol data on the impact of French strikes earlier this year shows that cancellations can spike by over a third.“We need to keep a very careful eye on Europe where strike actions have caused significant disruptions earlier this year. Governments should have effective contingency plans in place so that the actions of those providing essential services like air traffic control maintain minimum service levels and do not disrupt the hard-earned vacations of those travelling or put at risk the livelihoods of those in the travel and tourism sectors,” Careen added.

Uptick in LNG imports from Qatar contributed to higher LNG imports in India and Pakistan in April this year, GECF’ latest data show.In April 2023, Asia Pacific's LNG imports continued to recover and increased by 5% (1.05mn tonnes) y-o-y to 20.50mn tonnes, which was slightly lower than the imports in April 2021.China, India, Thailand, and Pakistan contributed to the bulk of the incremental increase in LNG imports and offset weaker imports in Japan. Asia Pacific's cumulative LNG imports from January to April this year rose by 3% (2.6mn tonnes) y-o-y to 89.12mn tonnes, Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum said.China's LNG imports continued to recover in April and recorded the highest year-on-year increase since September 2021. The rebound in economic and industrial activity boosted gas consumption, driving LNG imports higher.Pipeline gas imports to the EU increased by 3% month-on-month, to reach 14 bcm in April.Global LNG imports surged by 10% y-o-y to 34.4mn tonnes, setting a new record high for imports in April. The increase was driven by stronger LNG imports across all regions, especially in the Asia Pacific and Europe.In Europe, the rise in LNG imports continues to compensate for the lower pipeline gas imports into the region.Meanwhile, the rebound in gas consumption in China, opportunistic buying in India due to lower spot LNG prices, and declining gas production and pipeline gas imports in Thailand contributed to the increase in the Asia Pacific's LNG imports.Furthermore, Philippines joined the ranks of LNG importers in April, GECF noted.As of April, the restocking of gas storage sites has commenced. In the EU, the average level of gas in underground storage was 59.4bcm, which amounts to 57% of the region's storage capacity.In the US, the level of underground gas storage increased to 55.6bcm, representing 42% of its capacity.A slower stockbuild is expected in both the EU and US this summer due to the high levels of gas already in storage. The combined LNG in storage in Japan and South Korea was estimated at 9.8bcm.According to GECF, gas and LNG spot prices in Europe and Asia continued their downward trend for the fourth consecutive month. In April, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), which is the main reference virtual market for gas trading in Europe and Northeast Asia (NEA) LNG spot prices, averaged $13.69/MMBtu and $12.10/MMBtu, respectively, representing a 1% and 9% decrease compared to the previous month.The TTF spot price was 57% lower y-o-y, while the NEA LNG spot price experienced a decline of 58% y-o-y. With the arrival of the shoulder season, the market witnessed a decrease in tightness as a result of ample storage levels and strong LNG supply.However, in Asia, there was some emerging buying activity in anticipation of the summer season, which helped limit the decline in spot LNG prices, GECF said.

Qatar's headline and core inflation remains relatively lower than elsewhere mainly due to subsidies and caps on certain products, strengthening of the US dollar to which the riyal is pegged, IMF said in its latest regional outlook.Headline inflation showed signs of peaking at the end of 2022, although it remains persistently high for emerging markets, Middle income countries and low income countries, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in the recent report.Headline and core inflation in many oil-exporting countries (Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia) remain relatively lower than elsewhere — as subsidies and caps on certain products, the strengthening of the US dollar (to which many of the countries peg their currencies), and limited share of food in the consumer price index basket have helped to offset imported inflationary pressures — and appear to have peaked in the last months of 2022. By contrast, headline inflation continued trending upward in most emerging markets, Middle income countries (Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia, but not Jordan because of its peg to the US dollar and temporary fuel subsidies), partly reflecting the impact of past exchange rate depreciation and persistently elevated food prices, but also broadening price pressures (including on services) as underscored by the rise in core inflation amid loose monetary policy (Egypt, Pakistan, Tunisia).According to the IMF, real GDP growth in the Mena region has been upgraded for 2022 because of stronger-than-expected growth in many oil-exporting economies (Qatar, Bahrain, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and some oil importers (Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia).Real GDP in the region is estimated to have expanded by 5.3% in 2022 (an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point from October), up from 4.3% in 2021, reflecting the strong performance of oil exporters (especially GCC economies) and Egypt and despite lacklustre growth in other emerging markets, middle income countries and most low income countries.The acceleration in growth in 2022 was mainly due to strong domestic demand—notwithstanding the negative impact of higher prices on households’ purchasing power and firms’ production costs—and a strong rebound in oil production for oil exporters, it noted.Several factors explain the relative strength of domestic demand. Tourism rebounded, and hotel occupancy rates recovered, surpassing their pre-pandemic levels in many countries (Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia).Remittance flows remained strong in mid-2022 in most emerging markets and middle income countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Pakistan), IMF noted.Lending to the private sector (non-financial firms and households) continued to expand in real terms in some emerging markets and middle income countries, with double-digit growth in some countries (approximately 10% in Egypt), partly reflecting the prevalence of subsidised lending initiatives in the second half of 2022.Labour market conditions stopped deteriorating in 2022, although structural factors, such as labour and product market rigidities hampered a meaningful recovery, especially in emerging markets and middle income countries, it said.Employment growth in emerging markets and middle income countries remained lacklustre in the second half (Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia) but continued to rise at a healthy pace in GCC countries (Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia), partly reflecting rebounding migrant employment (Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia). Unemployment rates inched up or remained broadly steady in most emerging markets and middle income countries, staying above pre-pandemic levels in many countries in late 2022 (Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia), IMF added.