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* Gross domestic product to touch $216bn and GDP per capita $80,956 this year * GDP to touch $216bn and GDP per capita $80,956 this year Qatar is set to record its “fastest” GDP growth in seven years in 2022, FocusEconomics said and noted the gross domestic product will touch $216bn this year. The researcher has forecast that Qatar’s GDP per capita will be $80,956 this year. Elevated energy prices, reduced impact of the pandemic, improved relations with Arab neighbours and the FIFA World Cup in November-December will be key drivers of Qatar’s GDP, FocusEconomics said. Growth will likely ease in 2023 amid rising interest rates, lower energy prices and faltering external demand. FocusEconomics researchers’ see a 4.5% rise in Qatar’s GDP during 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% growth in 2023. GDP growth over the next four years has been forecast at 2.7% (2023), 2.9% (2024), 3.6% (2025) and 4.3% (2026). Qatar’s GDP per capita has been forecast at $81,751 in 2023, $85,472 (2024), $91,609 (2025) and $97,833 (2026). The country’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the GDP) has been forecast at 9.2 this year, 5.8 (2023), 3.5 (2024), 4.0 (2025) and 4.5 (2026). Qatar’s public debt (as a percentage of the GDP) has been forecast at 45.6 (2022), 43.4 (2023), 43.4 (2024), 41.8 (2025) and 40.2 (2026). Current account balance (as a percentage of the GDP), FocusEconomics has estimated at 19.9 this year and 15.1 (2023), 12.3 (2024), 12.0 (2025) and 11.6 (2026). In dollar terms, the country’s current account balance will be $43bn (2022), $32.4bn (2023), $27.3bn (2024), $28.1bn (2025) and $28.9bn (2026). Merchandise trade balance may amount to $82.2bn this year, $79.6bn (2023), $65.2bn (2024), $68.4bn (2025) and $70.9bn (2026). Merchandise exports, FocusEconomics has forecast at $113.6bn this year, $112.1bn (2023), $99.4bn (2024), $105.1bn (2025) and $110.8bn (2026). Merchandise imports, the researcher noted will be $31.4bn this year, $32.5bn (2023), $34.3bn (2024), $36.7bn (2025) and $39.9bn (2026). The country’s international reserves have been projected at $41.7bn this year, $43.4bn (2023) and $44.7bn (2024). Qatar’s unemployment (as a percentage of active population) will remain at a meagre 0.2 between 2022 and 2026, the researcher noted. According to FocusEconomics, Qatar's economy expanded 6.3% in annual terms in Q2 based on recent data. The non-energy sector led the upturn with a near-double-digit expansion, while the energy sector registered softer growth. Turning to Q3, available data suggests ongoing strong momentum. In July-August, the PMI averaged well in growth territory, amid historically strong expansions in output and new orders. Moreover, in July, energy output rose robustly year-on-year and tourist arrivals spiked by 293%. The latest diplomatic developments are positive for the economy too. The country recently signed agreements to boost trade with Egypt and the UK. Moreover, the European Union opened a delegation in Doha in September, and French energy giant TotalEnergies announced it would invest $1.5bn in the North Field gas project, amid European efforts to diversify gas supply away from Russia. Inflation fell to 4.8% in August from 5% in July. The Qatar Central Bank hiked rates by 75 basis points to 4.5% in September, mirroring the US Federal Reserve’s move. Inflation is expected to average roughly double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices. That said, price pressures will ebb heading into 2023. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.

Qatar's fiscal balance has been forecast at 7.9% of GDP this year and 9.3% in 2023 by Oxford Economics. The country’s current account surplus, according to Oxford Economics, will be 15.5% of its GDP this year and 14.9% in 2023. Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast at 3.6% this year and 3.5% in 2023. Inflation, the researcher noted, will be 4.3% this year and 2.1% in 2023. Oxford Economics noted that Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the UAE showed ongoing expansion in business activity during September. Saudi Arabia will likely be one of the fastest growing economies in the world this year because of the surge in oil prices. Although the PMIs have fallen from August, as inflation and tighter monetary conditions impact demand, they still “indicate a resilient domestic economy that is benefiting from the recycling of oil revenues,” Oxford Economics said. Economic malaise continues for Egypt, with the PMI suggesting output continued to contract in September as high inflation, energy rationing, and import restrictions strangled demand. Opec+ oil production cut has come at a time when the global economy is slowing, Oxford Economics noted. Opec+ has cut production by 2mn barrels per day (bpd), following a 100,000 bpd cut last month. The group wishes to counter the anticipated fall in demand caused by high global inflation and an economic slowdown such that oil prices do not continue to fall. Last month, spot prices fell below $90 for the first time since January. Saudi Arabia is making further unilateral cuts to maintain sufficient excess capacity in case further economic sanctions are imposed on Russia that further constrict oil supply. “A likely increase in oil prices will come at an unfortunate time for most of the world economy as soaring inflation and tightening monetary policy is creating a sharp squeeze on household incomes globally. “As a result, we will be reviewing our Brent oil price forecast and the outlook for Opec+ economies,” Oxford Economics added.    

Beyond the Tarmac Takeoff and landing slot rules at airports around the world are again in the spotlight as the aviation industry recovers from the worst crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. In view of an expected recovery, many countries including the UK are reportedly considering a review of the airport slot rules and determine the best way forward. The European Commission has also proposed a return to the pre-Covid 80:20 ‘use it or lose it’ airport slot rule in the coming winter season, but with exceptions in the case of significant air-travel disruption. Takeoff and landing slot rules mean airlines must fill at least 80% of their slots in any given season, or risk losing their allocation next time round. At the height of pandemic-related travel restrictions (in 2020 and 2021), many countries had adopted either a partial or full waiver of the usual 80:20 slot rule. Airports say the 20% potential non-use is too high and leads to inefficiency, and they argue that not enough new entrants have access to key airports and so the figure effectively limits competition to the detriment of consumers. But, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA), the evidence contradicts both points. London Heathrow (LHR), Frankfurt, Amsterdam, and Singapore are all slot-constrained airports that operate at more than 95% efficiency, the global body of airlines says. It shows that the balance of the 80-20 slot system hits exactly the right note between optimal efficiency and flexibility. After all, schedules should match demand and demand is never 100%. It varies according to season, public holidays, time of week and much more. As for new entrants, when a small number of slots became available at LHR recently, they went to six airlines with huge route diversity, increasing competition, IATA noted. The Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines (WASG) is published by IATA to provide the global air transport community with a single set of standards for the management of airport slots at coordinated airports and planned operations at facilitated airports. The management of airport slots is required at some airports where the available airport infrastructure is insufficient to meet the demand of airlines and other aircraft operators while the management of planned operations at facilitated airports allows a degree of scheduling flexibility within available airport infrastructure capacity. The WASG is the industry standard recognised by many regulatory authorities for the management and allocation of airport capacity. “The WASG has worked well at slot-constrained airports for many years and airlines are confident that it can again be a fundamental pillar as the industry recovers,” says Lara Maughan, IATA’s head, Worldwide Airport Slots. “80:20 is fit for purpose for the foreseeable future. It takes time to set up routes and airlines need to have certainty that they can deliver on their network promises sustainably.” Nevertheless, she stresses that potential enhancements to the WASG are always being considered and adopted. Revised definitions for new entrants will give them even greater priority, for example. And performance monitoring has been strengthened to ensure airlines use their slots correctly. Airlines are also open to enhancing guidelines surrounding Level 2 airports to better deal with peak levels. This would be a more efficient option than the creation of a Level 4 for super-congested airports and would preserve the existing system. Brazil was considering moving Congonhas Airport into a completely new Level 4 category, but concluded it wasn’t the right decision. Maughan says airports must also do a better job of managing and declaring capacity. Slots are necessary because existing infrastructure isn’t up to the job. The situation is exacerbated by airports not correctly stating their capacity. “Airports must declare their capacity correctly as that is what the co-ordinator uses, whether it is 10 slots an hour or 60,” says Maughan. “But we see that with some airports the figure hasn’t changed for a decade. That can’t be right when the route mix and fleets change each season.” Industry leaders are stressing the need for a global harmonised system vis-à-vis airport slots. As countries came out of the pandemic, travel restrictions and slot waivers changed. This has led to an enormously complicated situation with one set of rules in the country of departure and another set on arrival. It has highlighted the criticality of a worldwide system. Although an airport has only its own market to consider, it is an airline that must connect all the dots. “We all saw how valuable flexibility in the global system was during the crisis,” says Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “It preserved networks when government decisions made demand disappear. “We still need that flexibility because the world is still far from normal. But even more critically, we cannot let governments forget the importance of a global standard approach for slots,” Walsh added. The aviation industry is crucial for the global economy to recover as quickly as possible once Covid-19 is brought under control. Therefore, governments and regulators around the world should provide relief to the global aviation and travel industry as it faces severe cashflow conditions and challenges on the road to recovery.

* The government segment has been the "key driver" in loans and deposits in August; total assets reach QR1.828tn Qatar banking sector has seen an uptick in its assets, loans and deposits in August, driven mainly by government activities and commodity prices. According to QNB Financial Services, the total assets of the Qatari banking sector increased by 0.7% MoM (0.1% in 2022) in August 2022 to reach QR1.828tn. The sector total loan book went up by 0.6% MoM (0.2% in 2022) and deposits rose by 0.9% MoM (-0.1% in 2022) in August, QNBFS noted. Loans increased by 0.6% during August to reach QR1,218.6bn. The public sector mainly pushed the credit higher (up 1.7% MoM in August). Loans have moved up by 0.2% in 2022, compared to a growth of 7.8% in 2021. Loans grew by an average 7.6% over the past five years (2017-2021), QNBFS said. As deposits gained by 0.9% in August, the LDR declined slightly to 125.2% compared with 125.5% in July. Public sector deposits increased by 3.7% MoM (+14% in 2022) in August, resulting in the overall gains in the Qatar banking sector deposits. Deposits moved up by 0.9% during August to reach QR973.2bn. The deposits surge in August was due to an uptick by 3.7% in public sector deposits. QNBFS said deposits have edged marginally lower by 0.1% in 2022, compared to a growth of 7.6% in 2021. Deposits grew by an average 6.1% over the past five years (2017-2021). The overall loan book went up by 0.6% in August 2022. Domestic public sector loans moved higher by 1.7% MoM (-4.5% in 2022). The government segment (represents nearly 32% of public sector loans) rose by 3.9% MoM (-18.1% in 2022), while the government institutions’ segment (represents nearly 62% of public sector loans) loan book increased by 1.0% MoM (+3.1% in 2022). However, the semi-government institutions’ segment moved lower by 2.6% MoM (+10.7% in 2022). Total private sector loans edged higher by 0.3% MoM (+3.2% in 2022) in August. The real estate segment and consumption and others mainly contributed toward the private sector loan growth for August. The real estate segment (contributes nearly 21% to private sector loans) moved up by 0.8% MoM (+4.9% in 2022). Consumption and others (contributes nearly 22% to private sector loans) went up by 0.5% MoM (+4.5% in 2022). Services (contributes nearly 29% to private sector loans) edged up by 0.04% MoM (+4.7% in 2022), while general trade (contributes nearly 21% to private sector loans) moved up slightly by 0.05% MoM (+0.6% in 2022) during August. Outside Qatar loans went down by 1.4% MoM (-7.2% in 2022) during August. Public sector deposits increased by 3.7% MoM (+14.0% in 2022) in August, resulting in the overall gains in the Qatar banking sector deposits. Looking at segment details, the government segment (represents 31% of public sector deposits) shot up by 8.4% MoM (+1.9% in 2022), while the government institutions’ segment (represents nearly 54% of public sector deposits) leaped forward by 1.4% MoM (+17.6% in 2022). The semi-government institutions’ segment moved up by 2.8% MoM (+31.8% in 2022). However, private sector deposits edged lower by 0.1% MoM (+7.4% in 2022). On the private sector front, the consumer segment declined by 0.6% MoM (+2.4% in 2022). However, the companies and institutions’ segment went up by 0.3% MoM (+13.3% in 2022). Non-resident deposits continued its downward spiral and went down by 1.3% MoM (-25.3% in 2022) in August. An analyst told Gulf Times the government segment has been the "key driver", in both loans and deposits in August. Government segment rose by 3.9% for the loan book and went up by 8.4% on deposits. "Short-term funding requirements for FIFA World Cup 2022 and infrastructure projects could be the reason for the loan growth, while higher commodity prices leading to increased government revenues could be the reason for the deposits increase. On the private sector front, real estate loans went up by 0.8% and could be attributed to increased housing demand leading up to FIFA World Cup 2022," the analyst noted.

Al Kharsaah solar plant will be a major step towards Qatar’s goal of achieving production of 5GW of solar power by 2035. Al Kharsaah Solar PV Independent Power Producer (IPP) Project, which is expected to be inaugurated shortly, is the country’s first large-scale solar power plant and is set to significantly reduce the environmental footprint. The project is owned and operated by Siraj 1 SPV, a consortium jointly owned by TotalEnergies & Marubeni (40%) and Siraj Energy (60%), the latter being a joint venture between QatarEnergy and QEWC (Qatar Electricity & Water Company). The project represents a milestone in the country’s energy history, set to produce 10% of its peak electricity demand at full capacity and reduce CO2 emissions by 26mn metric tons over its lifespan. Set to become the world’s largest solar power plant equipped with high-efficiency, half-cut bifacial solar modules, the 800 MWp Al Kharsaah Solar PV IPP Project will cover 10sqkm (the equivalent of roughly 1,400 soccer fields) and will feature 2mn modules mounted on trackers. This will enable substantial power gains by taking full advantage of the region's exceptional sunshine. In addition, the use of 3,240 installed string inverters will further increase annual yield by allowing for better tracking of the maximum power point at the string level. The plant will also feature a semi-automated cleaning system for the solar modules that cleans the dust and sand off every single module once every four days. In terms of power generation, the Al Kharsaah plant has a full capacity of 800 MWp that will be built in two phases of 400 MWp each. During its first year of operation (P50 Year 1), it is expected to generate almost 2,000,000 MWh, the equivalent energy consumption of approximately 55,000 Qatari households. According to the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario, renewable energies will represent more than 35% of the world’s energy mix in 2040.

* International visitor spend accounted for nearly 14.5% of country’s exports last year, ‘2022 Annual Research’ by World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has shown Qatar recorded international visitor spend of QR52.1bn in 2021, which accounted for nearly 14.5% of the country’s exports last year, the ‘2022 Annual Research’ by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has shown. International visitor spending accounted for 87% of the total visitor spend in 2021. Leisure spending totalled QR44.73bn, 75% of the total spending in Qatar in 2021, WTTC data reveal. Nearly 250,000 people were employed in the country’s travel and tourism sector last year, which represented 12% of the total jobs in 2021, the global forum for the travel and tourism industry noted, the research paper showed. In 2021, the travel and tourism sector contributed QR67.6bn to Qatari economy, or 10.3% of the total GDP, it said. On inbound arrivals last year, the WTTC data showed Indians accounted for 8% of the total arrivals, followed by those from Kuwait (4%), Oman (3%), UK (2%) and he US (2%). On outbound departures from Qatar, Turkey topped the list with 14%, followed by Kuwait (12%), Bahrain (11%), Saudi Arabia (10%) and the US (5%). On the global scale, prior to the pandemic, travel and tourism (including its direct, indirect and induced impacts) accounted for one in four of all new jobs created across the world, 10.3% of all jobs (333mn), and 10.3% of global GDP ($9.6tn). Meanwhile, international visitor spending amounted to $1.8tn in 2019 (6.8% of total exports). WTTC said following a loss of almost $4.9tn in 2020 (-50.4% decline), travel and tourism's contribution to GDP increased by $1tn (+21.7% rise) in 2021, the latest annual research has shown. In 2019, the travel and tourism sector contributed 10.3% to global GDP; a share which decreased to 5.3% in 2020 due to ongoing restrictions to mobility. 2021 saw the share increasing to 6.1%. In 2020, 62mn jobs were lost, representing a drop of 18.6%, leaving just 271mn employed across the sector globally, compared to 333mn in 2019. Some 18.2mn jobs were recovered in 2021, representing an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Following a decrease of 47.4% in 2020, domestic visitor spending increased by 31.4% in 2021, WTTC said. And following a decrease of 69.7% in 2020, international visitor spending rose by 3.8% in 2021. Julia Simpson, president and CEO, WTTC, said travel and tourism GDP is set to grow on average by 5.8% annually between 2022 and 2032, outpacing the growth of the overall economy (2.7% per year). “Our research shows that travel and tourism GDP could return to 2019 levels by the end of 2023. What is more, the sector is expected to create nearly 126mn new jobs within the next decade. While government support has been instrumental throughout this crisis, the swift recovery of the sector will only be possible if leaders and public officials work together and provide clear and consistent rules. “Governments need to focus on co-existing with Covid-19 while enhancing preparedness for future crises, offering safe travel experiences, supporting equitable vaccine distribution, and continuing to ease the conditions of entry to destinations. “The future outlook is positive, and our sector is once again showing its resilience and ability to bounce back. Despite the difficulties the sector has been facing, our projections point to a strong decade of growth,” Simpson noted.

The multi-billion dollar North Field development, the largest ever LNG project in the world, has reached a crucial phase with QatarEnergy beginning to announce partners for NFS project that will further increase Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production capacity from 110mn tonnes per year to 126 mtpy by 2026 or 2027. The North Field South (NFS) has many unique features, the foremost of which is its advanced environmental characteristics. This includes significant carbon capture and sequestration technologies and capacity. North Field development, the largest ever LNG project in the world, has reached a crucial phase with QatarEnergy beginning to announce partners for NFS project that will further increase Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production capacity from 110mn tonnes per year to 126mn tpy by 2026 or 2027. NFS comprises two mega LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16mn tonnes per year. QatarEnergy’s first partner in the NFS project is TotalEnergies, which will have an effective net participating interest of 9.375% out of a total 25% interest available for international partners. QatarEnergy will hold a 75% stake in the NFS project, HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi said at a media event in Doha recently. “The other partners in this project will be announced in due course,” HE al-Kaabi said. The minister noted: “We are committing big investments to lower the carbon intensity of our energy products, which constitute a key pillar of QatarEnergy’s sustainability and energy transition strategy.” QatarEnergy targets more than 11 mtpy of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the production of 5GW of solar power by 2035, HE al-Kaabi said, highlighting Qatar’s commitment to CCS and renewable energy production. “QatarEnergy is moving forward to help meet the growing global demand for cleaner energy, of which LNG is the backbone for a serious and realistic energy transition,” he said. Recently, QatarEnergy announced the Ammonia-7 Project, the industry’s first world-scale and largest blue ammonia project with a capacity of 1.2 mtpy." Blue ammonia is produced when the carbon dioxide generated during conventional ammonia production is captured and stored. It can be transported using conventional ships and then be used in power stations to produce low-carbon electricity. The new plant, which is estimated to cost $1.156bn, will be located in the Mesaieed Industrial City (MIC) and will be operated by Qafco as part of its integrated facilities. In August, QatarEnergy’s affiliates, QatarEnergy Renewable Solutions (QRS) and Qatar Fertiliser Company (Qafco) signed the agreements for the construction of the Ammonia-7 project, the industry’s first world-scale as well as the largest blue ammonia train, which is expected to come into operation by the first quarter of 2026. The North Field Expansion Project, comprising NFS and the North Field East (NFE) expansion projects, is the industry’s largest ever LNG project. It will start production in 2026 and will add more than 48 mtpy to the world’s LNG supplies. Five partnership agreements have been signed in June and July this year covering the NFE project, which comprises four mega LNG trains with a combined capacity of 32 mtpy. "Most project contracts have been awarded, while the onshore EPC contract is expected to be awarded in early 2023," HE al-Kaabi noted.

With the right government incentives, the airline industry could see 30bn litres of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2030, noted IATA’s Global Head of Cargo Brendan Sullivan. “SAF is the key to achieving net zero emissions. Airlines used every drop that was available in 2021. And it will be the same this year. The challenge is SAF production capacity. The solution is government incentives. With the right incentives, we could see 30bn litres of SAF by 2030. That would be a tipping point by 2030 towards our net zero ambition of ample SAF quantities at affordable prices,” Sullivan said at the 15th World Cargo Symposium (WCS). (IATA) highlighted four priorities to build resilience and strengthen air cargo’s post-pandemic prospects. The priorities, outlined at the 15th World Cargo Symposium (WCS), in London are achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, continuing to modernise processes, finding better solutions to safely carry lithium batteries and making air cargo attractive to new talent. “Air cargo had a stellar year in 2021 achieving $204bn in revenues. At present, however, social and economic challenges are mounting. The war in Ukraine has disrupted supply chains, jet fuel prices are high and economic volatility has slowed GDP growth. Despite this, there are positive developments. “E-commerce continues to grow, Covid restrictions are easing, and high-value specialised cargo products are proving resistant to economic ups-and-downs. Going forward, achieving our net zero commitment, modernising processes, finding better solutions to safely carry lithium batteries, and making air cargo attractive to new talent are critical,” said Sullivan. In 2021 the aviation industry agreed a balanced plan to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. A potential scenario for this is: •    65% through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) •    13% from hydrogen and electric propulsion •    3% from more efficient operations •    19% through offsets and eventually through carbon capture, as an out-of-sector solution while technology develops “People are the core of any improvement in what air cargo can deliver. Sadly, we saw thousands of jobs leave the industry during Covid-19, especially cargo handlers. We are now competing for talent in a very tight job market. And when we do find the right and willing talent, training and longer-than-usual security clearance processes delay their entry into the workforce,” said Sullivan. IATA called for governments to accelerate clearance processes, including those for security, as a short-term solution and longer term to do a better job of attracting, onboarding, and retaining talent. The association also encouraged more cargo carriers to sign on to the industry-wide 25by2025 initiative to promote gender diversity. “The need to create equal opportunities for the female half of the world’s population is highlighted by the situation today where the industry is struggling to attract sufficient talent. Achieving an equal gender balance must be core to any long-term talent strategy,” said Sullivan.

Qatar had the highest contribution of travel and tourism to GDP (10.3%) in the GCC region in 2021, according to an Alpen Capital study. Majority of travel and tourism spending in Qatar was in the leisure segment ($12.3bn), which constituted 75% of total travel and tourism spending in the country last year, Alpen Capital noted. Travel and tourism spending in Qatar was valued at $16.5bn in 2021, the researcher noted. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, travel and tourism had become one of the most important sectors in the world economy, accounting for 10.3% of global GDP ($9.6tn) and more than 333mn jobs (10.3% of all jobs) worldwide as of 2019. Qatar had the highest contribution of travel and tourism to GDP (10.3%) in the GCC region in 2021, says Alpen Capital; Majority of travel and tourism spending in Qatar was in the leisure segment ($12.3bn), which constituted 75% of total travel and tourism spending in the country last year In 2020, the global travel and tourism sector suffered a loss of almost $4.9tn with GDP contribution dropping to 5.5% due to the ongoing travel restrictions. Total spending declined 51.9% y-o-y to $2.9tn with business spending declining by 61% and leisure spending falling by 49.4% during 2020. As restrictions to mobility eased during 2021, the global travel and tourism sector’s contribution to GDP revived to 6.1%. Total spending improved 26.1% y-o-y to $3.7tn with business spending recovering by 30.9% and leisure spending rising by 25.1% during 2021. Domestic visitor spending increased by 31.4% y-o-y, while international visitor spending rose by 3.8% y-o-y during 2021. According to Alpen Capital, the GCC too witnessed a swift recovery in travel and tourism revenues as contact-intensive services key to the sector were boosted by reopening of the borders and effective crisis management strategies adopted by the regional governments. The sector’s contribution to GCC GDP increased from 6.1% ($98.3bn) in 2020 to 6.6% ($108.8bn) in 2021. The contribution to GDP increased by 10.7% in 2021 compared to the previous year. Total spending increased by 39.1% y-o-y to $77bn during 2021. Notably, the share of business spending in 2021 increased to 19.6% from 18% the previous year, and higher than the global share of 18.2% during the year. Domestic visitor spending in the GCC increased by 27.6% y-o-y to $34.4bn, while international visitor spending rose by 12.6% y-o-y to $42.7bn. Due to the fall in international tourist arrivals in the region, the share of domestic spending increased from 41% in 2020 to 45% in 2021. The share of total employment generated by the sector in the GCC improved from 9.2% of all jobs in 2020 to 9.8% in 2021, representing an y-o-y increase of 5.9%. Prior to the pandemic, total travel and tourism spending in the GCC grew at a CAGR of 14.1% between 2016 and 2019. Prior to the pandemic, total business spending in the GCC grew at a CAGR of 16.1%, while total leisure spending grew at a CAGR of 13.6% between 2016 and 2019, Alpen Capital said. However, the GCC countries have not been immune to the pandemic with both the business and leisure spending witnessing a windfall in 2020. As economic and health conditions improved across the globe, total business spending in the GCC recovered by 51.2% y-o-y and total leisure spending rose by 36.4% y-o-y in 2021, both higher than the global averages. The UAE accounted for 42% of the total business tourism spending in the region during 2021, the highest in the region, as the country hosted the EXPO 2020 Dubai. It was followed by Qatar (27.6%), and Saudi Arabia (10.6%). The share of business tourism in these three GCC nations have been witnessing significant rise, largely driven by the governments’ efforts to promote themselves as a leading destination for meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE). On the other hand, UAE also accounted for the highest share of 34.1% of the total leisure tourism spending in the region during 2021, followed by Saudi Arabia (33.2%), and Qatar (19.8%). Within Saudi Arabia, the share of leisure tourism stood to be highest (93%) amongst all the GCC nations during 2021, primarily driven by the government’s ongoing initiatives to broaden its scope beyond religious tourism.

Beyond the Tarmac The oil price has been sliding on concerns of global economic slowdown hurting energy consumption, but the airline industry has little to cheer given elevated prices for jet fuel. Rising energy prices will have an impact on the airline industry’s bottomline as fuel bill accounts for 20-30% of its operating costs. Latest IATA data show the global industry would have to churn out $131.6bn on fuel costs in 2022. So far this year, jet fuel price averaged $142/barrel, the global body of airlines noted. Fuel is a major cost component of operating an airline, which means a rise in energy costs will force airlines either to reduce costs elsewhere or increase fares. “In the current operating environment neither is easy,” points out OAG, a UK-based global travel data provider. Jet fuel prices have long driven airline profitability and the aviation industry as a whole, representing between 14% and as much as 31% of airline operating costs in the past decade, an IATA estimate shows. One report, however, suggests 40% of the raw material cost in any airline, is for jet fuel or aviation turbine fuel (ATF). Consequently, airlines hedge a large portion of their annual fuel consumption at lower oil prices in order to protect themselves from the volatility in oil prices. But given the global economic uncertainties, it is easier said than done. “Because of oil price volatility, we cannot hedge anymore as banks are not ready to hedge. This is because they don’t know where the price is going – north or south,” Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker said in Doha recently. “That said, oil price is not in the hands of anyone – it is based on demand and supply and the political climate around the world,” he said. Al-Baker also urged the oil industry to invest more in alternative fuel that will protect the environment. “As I stated, I have no issue in paying a bit more, but I cannot pay four of five times the price of the normal Avgas (aviation gasoline), because it will not be affordable to us. And if we are pushed to do that… you as a passenger are going to pay for it. “This is because airlines’ operate with very low margin. I don’t think there is any other industry in the world that operates with 4% or 5% margin.” In 2021, Qatar Airways committed to using sustainable aviation fuel for at least 10% of combined fuel volumes by 2030, provided that a few suppliers produce more SAF. Speaking on the sidelines of the 41st General Assembly of ICAO, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “I think everyone will be familiar with the rising oil price and the impact that energy prices will have on consumers. Starting at the beginning of this year, we saw what we call the crack spread, the difference between Brent (crude price) and the price of jet, widened very significantly. “Although we have seen crude prices ease in recent months, we are still seeing elevated prices for jet fuel, and some of that is understandable, given that the demand reduced significantly in 2020 and 2021. So refining capacity moved away from jet. As that capacity came back online, we would have expected to see this crack spread narrow significantly.” It is still at rates that are significantly elevated from historical rates, which you can see there going back to 2015. Between 2010 and 2019, the average spread was about 18%, so Brent averaged $80 a barrel throughout that 10-year period. “We have seen that spreads go over 60%. At the end of September, it was at 56%. Now it has eased a little bit, but still a very big difference between crude prices and jet prices, which means that we will see costs continue to challenge the industry in 2022, and in 2023,” Walsh noted. Gasoline prices have seen a sustained downtrend over the past three months. Gas prices fell for 13 consecutive weeks, a fresh record. Meanwhile, the Airline Association of Southern Africa (AASA) warned that higher fuel costs and supply shortage may lead to flight disruptions and cancellations in the continent. “The escalation of jet fuel rations throws into sharp focus South Africa’s vulnerability because of its reliance on imported jet fuel,” said AASA. The group called on government and fuel suppliers to move with urgency and put in place a robust and resilient plan to ensure sufficient stocks of aviation fuel are always available. Kirby Gordon, chief marketing officer at FlySafair, said that jet fuel has increased by around 220% over the last year and makes up about 50% of total operating costs – up from 30% previously. “This is a huge deterrent for airlines to expand flights and operations, especially because they have to fly further between economic hubs in South Africa,” he said.

Market conditions are proving toxic for gold prices, Emirates NBD said and noted the Federal Reserve rate hike and dollar surge are headwinds for the precious metal. Metals prices will struggle in the near term as a combination of slowing global growth, tighter monetary policy and a near complete aversion to risk assets weighs on both precious and industrial metals. Gold prices are already down nearly 10% year-to-date while a broad measure of industrial metals, the London Metal Exchange Index (LMEX) has fallen more than 20%, noted Edward Bell, senior director (Market Economics) at Emirates NBD. “Further downside may be in store particularly as demand conditions will ebb,” he said. Market conditions are proving toxic for gold prices. The Fed has so far hiked policy rates by 300bps this year, as of late September, and we expect that they will add another 125bps before the year ends. After a tortuous journey to moving from highly accommodative policy to restrictive, the move higher in policy rates has also pushed Treasury yields higher, both in nominal and real terms. The 10yr UST yield had added 226bps since the start of the year while the similar maturity TIPS yield has moved up 250bps. With the Fed not showing any signs of moderating their approach to tightening policy, Treasury yields will likely be able to extend their moves higher and attract macro investor interest away from gold, traditionally also seen as a haven asset. A surge in the dollar, generally a negative for all USD-denominated commodities, has also been a headwind for gold prices. As the dollar remains strong both against developed market (witness the collapse in British pound) and emerging market peers, gold prices will struggle given the strong negative correlation in place between moves in the broad dollar index and gold. While gold prices in dollars may have fallen, the depreciation in currencies in some core markets for physical demand means that gold is still relatively expensive. Gold prices in Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) terms are up by 1.7% ytd while in Indian rupee (INR) terms they are down just 0.8% ytd, Emirates NBD noted. A broader collapse in financial markets — major sell-offs have been underway in equity and corporate credit markets — may also mean investors cut any remaining gold positions to cover losses elsewhere. Futures positioning in gold markets among managed money participants has fallen to a net short position. Longs have fallen by more than 102k contracts since gold hit a peak of USD2,050/troy oz in early March in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while short positions have expanded by 76k. “We expect the currency weakness in gold prices to persist in Q4, 2022 with a target for an average of $1,650/troy oz. In 2023 gold prices should recover modestly to an average over the year of $1,725/troy oz though that still leaves them down 3% year-on-year on 2022. “We expect to see a similar trend repeated across the rest of the precious metals complex though with their heavier use in industrial processes, silver, platinum and palladium prices may linger for longer at relatively lower levels,” Emirates NBD noted.

Market conditions are proving toxic for gold prices, Emirates NBD said and noted the Federal Reserve rate hike and dollar surge are headwinds for the precious metal. Metals prices will struggle in the near term as a combination of slowing global growth, tighter monetary policy and a near complete aversion to risk assets weighs on both precious and industrial metals. Gold prices are already down nearly 10% year-to-date while a broad measure of industrial metals, the London Metal Exchange Index (LMEX) has fallen more than 20%, noted Edward Bell, senior director (Market Economics) at Emirates NBD. “Further downside may be in store particularly as demand conditions will ebb,” he said. Market conditions are proving toxic for gold prices. The Fed has so far hiked policy rates by 300bps this year, as of late September, and we expect that they will add another 125bps before the year ends. After a tortuous journey to moving from highly accommodative policy to restrictive, the move higher in policy rates has also pushed Treasury yields higher, both in nominal and real terms. The 10yr UST yield had added 226bps since the start of the year while the similar maturity TIPS yield has moved up 250bps. With the Fed not showing any signs of moderating their approach to tightening policy, Treasury yields will likely be able to extend their moves higher and attract macro investor interest away from gold, traditionally also seen as a haven asset. A surge in the dollar, generally a negative for all USD-denominated commodities, has also been a headwind for gold prices. As the dollar remains strong both against developed market (witness the collapse in British pound) and emerging market peers, gold prices will struggle given the strong negative correlation in place between moves in the broad dollar index and gold. While gold prices in dollars may have fallen, the depreciation in currencies in some core markets for physical demand means that gold is still relatively expensive. Gold prices in Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) terms are up by 1.7% ytd while in Indian rupee (INR) terms they are down just 0.8% ytd, Emirates NBD noted. A broader collapse in financial markets — major sell-offs have been underway in equity and corporate credit markets — may also mean investors cut any remaining gold positions to cover losses elsewhere. Futures positioning in gold markets among managed money participants has fallen to a net short position. Longs have fallen by more than 102k contracts since gold hit a peak of USD2,050/troy oz in early March in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while short positions have expanded by 76k. “We expect the currency weakness in gold prices to persist in Q4, 2022 with a target for an average of $1,650/troy oz. In 2023 gold prices should recover modestly to an average over the year of $1,725/troy oz though that still leaves them down 3% year-on-year on 2022. “We expect to see a similar trend repeated across the rest of the precious metals complex though with their heavier use in industrial processes, silver, platinum and palladium prices may linger for longer at relatively lower levels,” Emirates NBD noted.

International Gas Union expects liquefied natural gas demand to grow further in 2022 as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to impact global gas supply, reinforcing LNG’s critical role in global energy security. Growth in Qatari LNG market and other markets including the US and Africa will help support European energy security, IGU said in its ‘World LNG Report 2022’. “In 2021, Russia contributed to 8.0% of global LNG exports, out of which, 43.9% were to Europe, while the remaining 56.1% were to Asia Pacific and Asia. With the European Union committing to eliminate Russia energy imports by 2027, growth in existing LNG exporting markets, such as the United States and Qatar, and developing new ones like growing Africa, are important avenues to diversify its energy sources and support European energy security,” IGU noted. As of April this year, 136.2mn tonnes per year (MTPY) of liquefaction capacity was under construction or approved for development, but only 7.7MTPY of that overall capacity increase is expected to come online in the second half of 2022, with the rest gradually coming in between 2023 and 2027. 2021 witnessed one of the highest volumes of capacity being approved in a single year, with 50 MTPY worth of liquefaction capacity reaching a final investment decision (FID). This was mainly contributed by the Qatargas North Field East (NFE) project, which added 32 MTPY to global approved liquefaction capacity. The remaining approved capacity was contributed by the Baltic LNG T1–T2 (13 MTPY) and Pluto T2 Expansion (5 MTPY) in the pre-FID stage, the majority of which is in the United States, Canada and Russia. In the Middle East, QatarEnergy has taken FID on the North Field East (NFE), the world’s largest LNG project, which will raise Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77MTPY to 110MTPY by 2025. The project involves the construction of four new LNG mega-trains with a capacity of 8MTPY each. With the NFE project progressing, this will reposition Qatar as the world leader in terms of liquefaction capacity, IGU said. The current geopolitical situation has re-invigorated appetite for new liquefaction project development, with several project developers hoping to leverage strong demand and high LNG prices to progress to an FID. “However, challenges such as access to financing remain, as financial institutions are reducing their exposure to fossil fuel investments, focusing developments on clean energy instead. “As such, it is crucial for new liquefaction plants to be increasingly innovative in a decarbonising landscape, leveraging on solutions to continue driving down emissions in the liquefaction process and the rest of the LNG value chain. It is also important to have clarity and consistency in the policy environment, which impacts financial risk and liquidity provision,” IGU said.

QatarEnergy targets more than 11mn tonnes per year (mtpy) of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the production of 5GW of solar power by 2035, HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi said, highlighting Qatar’s commitment to CCS and renewable energy production. “QatarEnergy is moving forward to help meet the growing global demand for cleaner energy, of which LNG is the backbone for a serious and realistic energy transition,” al-Kaabi said at a media event where QatarEnergy announced its selection of TotalEnergies as the first international partner in the multi-billion dollar North Field South (NFS) expansion project. Al-Kaabi said: “We are committing big investments to lower the carbon intensity of our energy products, which constitute a key pillar of QatarEnergy’s sustainability and energy transition strategy. “Furthermore, as you reported recently, we have announced the Ammonia-7 Project, the industry’s first world-scale and largest blue ammonia project with a capacity of 1.2 mtpy." Blue ammonia is produced when the carbon dioxide generated during conventional ammonia production is captured and stored. It can be transported using conventional ships and then be used in power stations to produce low-carbon electricity. The new plant, which is estimated to cost $1.156bn, will be located in the Mesaieed Industrial City (MIC) and will be operated by Qafco as part of its integrated facilities. Last month, QatarEnergy’s affiliates, QatarEnergy Renewable Solutions (QRS) and Qatar Fertiliser Company (Qafco) signed the agreements for the construction of the Ammonia-7 project, the industry’s first world-scale as well as the largest blue ammonia train, which is expected to come into operation by the first quarter of 2026. Al-Kaabi said QatarEnergy was always talking to buyers globally, whether in Europe or Asia, and would continue to do so for commercial contracts for the expansion project as per market needs. “Uniper and RWE (German utilities) have a great relationship with us, we have been dealing with them for the last 20 years, we have contracts with some of them," al-Kaabi said. "So, we are talking with both of them and there isn’t anything that I can say that is different from what I always say on commercial contracts, which is I don’t discuss them,” he added.

TotalEnergies is not overexposed to Qatar, chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne said and noted: "If Qatar had offered more investments, then we would have invested more in Qatar.” “Qatar has the largest LNG reserves and is a low-cost producer,” Pouyanne said at a media event alongside HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi, where QatarEnergy announced partnership with TotalEnergies in the North Field South expansion project. "If Qatar had offered more investments then we would have invested more in Qatar," Pouyanne said at a media event, where QatarEnergy announced partnership with TotalEnergies in the North Field South expansion project TotalEnergies will invest around $1.5bn in the planned expansion of Qatar's liquefied natural gas capacity North Field South project, Pouyanne said. TotalEnergies will have an effective net participating interest of 9.375% in the NFS project (out of a total 25% interest available for international partners) while QatarEnergy will hold a 75% interest. The other investments in NFS are expected to be announced in the coming weeks. “We need new capacity for sure, and this will be coming at perfect timing," he said. "Most of the leaders of the world have discovered the words LNG," he said, adding that European countries had to be prepared to strike more long-term deals - and possibly pay a higher price to guarantee energy. "For security of supply, there is a price," Pouyanne said. Qatar's North Field expansion plan includes six LNG trains that will ramp up its liquefaction capacity from 77mn tonnes per year (mtpy) to 126mtpy by 2027. It awarded contracts for the first phase of the expansion project, North Field East (NFE), which includes four trains, earlier this year. TotalEnergies has already signed a deal for a stake in the NFE project and Saturday became the first international partner to be announced for the NFS expansion that includes two trains. In a statement Pouyanne said: "Following North Field East, we are truly honoured and proud that Qatar has once again chosen TotalEnergies to be QatarEnergy’s first partner in North Field South. The State of Qatar’s ambitious leadership in further developing its natural gas resources through this expansion project, which ranks among the world's most competitive in terms of costs and low emissions, will make a major contribution to increasing LNG supply in the years to come. “We consider Qatar as a long-term strategic country for TotalEnergies and this latest addition to our portfolio marks an important step toward our low-carbon LNG growth objectives, a key pillar of TotalEnergies’ transformation into a sustainable multi-energy company. It will also further strengthen our ability, together with Qatar, to support Europe’s energy security."

               Doha   • The NFS project, which comprises two LNG mega trains with a combined capacity of 16mn tons per year (MTPY), will raise Qatar’s total LNG export capacity to 126 MTPY QatarEnergy announced that it has selected TotalEnergies as the first international partner in the multi-billion dollar North Field South (NFS) expansion project. The NFS project, which comprises two LNG mega trains with a combined capacity of 16mn tons per year (MTPY), will raise Qatar’s total LNG export capacity to 126 MTPY. The partnership agreement was signed by HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, also President and CEO of QatarEnergy and Patrick Pouyanné, chairman of the Board and CEO of TotalEnergies, during a ceremony held Saturday at QatarEnergy’s headquarters at West Bay and attended by senior executives from both companies. Pursuant to the agreement, TotalEnergies will have an effective net participating interest of 9.375% in the NFS project (out of a total 25% interest available for international partners) while QatarEnergy will hold a 75% interest. Minister al-Kaabi said, “QatarEnergy is moving forward, to help meet growing global demand for cleaner energy, of which LNG is the backbone for a serious and realistic energy transition. We are committing significant investments to lower the carbon intensity of our energy products, which constitutes a key pillar of QatarEnergy’s sustainability and energy transition strategy.” “We will continue our efforts to power lives in every corner of the world for a better tomorrow for all,” al-Kaabi added. Al-Kaabi welcomed TotalEnergies to this new project and said, “I am pleased to welcome TotalEnergies yet again as a partner in our flagship LNG projects. With this agreement, we see an enhanced position for TotalEnergies as a long-term strategic partner for QatarEnergy." “I would like to thank the working teams at QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies for their excellent cooperation that led to this agreement. I also would like to thank the Qatargas leadership and project teams for their efforts in implementing the North Field expansion projects on schedule, and with an outstanding safety record. Most importantly, we are forever grateful to the wise leadership of His Highness the Amir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al- Thani and for his unlimited support of Qatar’s energy sector,” al-Kaabi noted. The North Field Expansion Project, comprising NFS and the North Field East (NFE) expansion projects, is the industry’s largest ever LNG project. It will start production in 2026 and will add more than 48MTPY to the world’s LNG supplies. Five partnership agreements have been signed in June and July this year covering the NFE project, which comprises four mega LNG trains with a combined capacity of 32MTPY. "Most project contracts have been awarded, while the onshore EPC contract is expected to be awarded in early 2023," al-Kaabi noted. This unique project is characterised by the highest health, safety, and environmental standards, including carbon capture and sequestration, to reduce the project’s overall carbon footprint to the lowest levels possible. Other partners in the NFS project will be announced in due course, al-Kaabi added.

Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker has urged the oil industry to invest more in alternative fuel that will protect the environment. Participating in a panel session at the World Financial Symposium in Doha, al-Baker said, “What we are asking from the industry (oil and gas) is that they should invest more in alternate fuel that will protect our environment, although we are not the biggest polluter. “We are the minute polluter – just over 2.6% of the (total) emissions is not a big figure. But we are targeted…the aviation industry is unfairly blamed for global warming. So we now depend on oil companies and we are ready to buy sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), provided it is reasonably priced. “As I stated, I have no issue in paying a bit more, but I cannot pay four of five times the price of the normal Avgas (aviation gasoline), because it will not be affordable to us. And if we are pushed to do that… you as a passenger are going to pay for it. “This is because airlines’ operate with very low margin. I don’t think there is any other industry in the world that operates with 4% or 5% margin. In 2021, Qatar Airways committed to using sustainable aviation fuel for at least 10% of combined fuel volumes by 2030, provided that a few suppliers produce more SAF. He said, “Because of oil price volatility, we cannot hedge anymore as banks are not ready to hedge. This is because they don’t know where the price is going – north or south.” “That said, oil price is not in the hands of anyone – it is based on demand and supply and the political climate around the world.” Speaking on the challenges facing the industry, post-pandemic, he said, “We were coming out of the pandemic when the conflict started… we are still profitable by the grace of god. But no one can predict what will happen in future. “For me the biggest worry is the conflict spreading, which will then add to inflation and put pressure on airlines. And the net result will be fewer passengers in my airline.” “Despite optimism and rebound in travel, post-pandemic, we are still in dangerous times due to conflicts around the world. Unfortunately, as soon as we start seeing a recovery, something else happens… and put pressure on our bottom line. As CEO of an airline I am concerned about that.” Highlighting Qatar Airways commitment to invest in a low-carbon future and safeguard the environment, al-Baker said, “In 2021, Qatar Airways committed to using sustainable aviation fuel for at least 10% of combined fuel volumes by 2030, provided that a few suppliers produce more SAF. IATA director general Willie Walsh also participated in the panel session moderated by Hadley Gamble, CNBC Anchor and senior international correspondent. The 2022 World Financial Symposium (WFS) is focusing on reshaping airline resilience. Following the greatest shock to aviation in history, the industry is emerging rapidly from the pandemic and government-mandated travel restrictions of the past two years. Industry losses are expected to reduce to $9.7bn this year from nearly $180bn in red ink in 2020-21. As travel barriers fall in most regions, very strong demand is supporting expectations for a recovery to pre-Covid-19 traffic levels by 2024, with profitability a possibility in 2023. At the same time airline debt levels have soared as carriers borrowed to stay aloft during the crisis. And finance departments across the industry will face challenges as the industry achieves its 2050 fly net zero commitment.    

Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker said the aviation industry will continue to face challenges emanating from Covid-19, oil prices, shortage of manpower, political upheaval, lack of investments in infrastructure development and unnecessary restrictions on aviation on environment grounds. He was participating in a panel session following the formal opening of the IATA World Financial Symposium (WFS) in Doha yesterday. He urged the aviation industry to work towards an optimised management of its financial resources, including applying best practices in the areas of cost recovery and effective cash management. The industry, he said, should have a clearly defined measuring, reporting and verification system in place to ensure it drives progress to deliver sustainability commitments. “In order to achieve our ambitious climate targets, the carbon markets need to respond in accordance to the airline's commitments,” he said. He said airline ticket prices will remain high due to lack of capacity as airline manufacturers face challenges delivering aircraft on time. The tourism industry will be hardly hit if disposable income of people shrink due to inflation. “Despite optimism and rebound in travel, post-pandemic, we are still in dangerous times due to conflicts around the world. Unfortunately, as soon as we start seeing a recovery, something else happens… and put pressure on our bottom line. As CEO of an airline, I am concerned about that.” IATA director general Willie Walsh also participated in the panel session moderated by Hadley Gamble, CNBC anchor and senior international correspondent. The 2022 World Financial Symposium (WFS) is focusing on reshaping airline resilience. Following the greatest shock to aviation in history, the industry is emerging rapidly from the pandemic and government-mandated travel restrictions of the past two years. Industry losses are expected to reduce to $9.7bn this year from nearly $180bn in red ink in 2020-21. As travel barriers fall in most regions, very strong demand is supporting expectations for a recovery to pre-Covid-19 traffic levels by 2024, with profitability a possibility in 2023. At the same time airline debt levels have soared as carriers borrowed to stay aloft during the crisis. And finance departments across the industry will face challenges as the industry achieves its 2050 fly net zero commitment. Walsh said, “Airlines are resilient. Now is the time to build on the hard work and difficult restructurings of the past two years to seize opportunities coming out of the crisis. Finance will play a vital role in supporting the ongoing recovery while creating a sustainable capital structure to support our ambitious environment agenda.”