Events

Two candidates running for parliament in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Dec 20 general election were killed in separate incidents on Friday, as a rights group warned in a report on Saturday that electoral violence risks undermining the vote. A candidate for the ruling coalition in the South Kivu province in the eastern Congo region was killed by unknown gunmen while he was returning from a campaign event on Friday evening, a regional government official told Reuters.Another ruling coalition candidate in Beni, in the North Kivu province, also in eastern Congo, died from gunshot wounds late on Friday night after his campaign convoy was ambushed, Jeremie Muhindo, director of the Beni hospital, told Reuters.Congo will vote in a general election next week. Alongside the violence, opposition parties and independent observers have warned that issues including illegible voter cards, blocked campaign planes and electoral list delays threaten the legitimacy of the results. Human Rights Watch said in a report on Saturday that election-related violence risks undermining the election.“Since early October, Human Rights Watch has documented clashes across the country between supporters of rival political parties that have resulted in assaults, sexual violence and at least one death,” the report said.It added that the violence was coming both from supporters of the ruling coalition and opposition parties, and said incidents continue to be reported. An evangelical church, the Church of Christ in Congo, said in a statement on Friday its temple in the capital Kinshasa was vandalised during violent clashes between supporters of an opposition politician and those of the ruling coalition.In a separate incident unrelated to the election, at least 11 civilians including six women were decapitated in an attack on a village in Ituri province on Friday, a deputy mayor said.The attack has been blamed on militants linked to the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which operates in the eastern Congo region. “There was a funeral in the village. The assailants surprised the victims while they were gathered. Eleven people were killed, others had managed to escape,” Freddy Mbayahi, deputy mayor of Mangina municipality in Ituri, told Reuters.DR Congo’s democracy has been backsliding ahead of elections this month, according to rights defenders, as prominent journalists languish in prison and the murder of an opposition politician remains unsolved.President Felix Tshisekedi came to power in 2019 after a campaign criticising the rights record of his predecessor Joseph Kabila, among other issues.But a slew of recent events have sparked concerns about the president’s own record. A former minister turned opposition member was found dead in the central African nation’s capital Kinshasa in July.A few months later, one the best-known Congolese journalists was imprisoned after the authorities accused him of spreading fake news about the murder. “These are signs of the narrowing of the democratic space,” said a rights researcher, who requested anonymity.

The sun-drenched coral islands and reefs of the Maldives are in existential danger. With 80% of the country’s population living just one metre above sea level, many islands could become uninhabitable as climate change causes the ocean’s level to rise. By the end of this century, half a million people could be displaced. The Maldives is confronting this threat with a range of innovative adaptation initiatives, from restoring coral reefs to floating solar-power systems. But survival does not come cheap.The Maldives earns much of its revenues from high-end tourism. So, like many other countries, it was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which brought much global travel to a halt. But in 2021, when restrictions were loosened, a powerful tourism rebound fuelled robust economic recovery in the Maldives, with the promise of a return to pre-pandemic growth by 2023.That recovery was interrupted by two successive credit-ratings downgrades – first from Moody’s and then from Fitch – which caused borrowing costs to rise sharply. The last bonds the Maldives issued in 2021 carried a coupon rate of 9.875% and a yield of 10.5%. Since then, bond yields have surpassed 20% – a reflection of investors’ perceptions of higher risk. As a result, the Maldives has effectively been locked out of international markets. It has not issued a bond to finance its development programmes since 2021.The Maldives isn’t alone. During the pandemic, 11 of the 16 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – which are particularly vulnerable to climate change – that are rated faced a downgrade or a negative credit outlook by at least one of the big three credit-ratings agencies (CRAs): Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s. This is catastrophic for economic-development and climate-adaptation efforts.The use of credit ratings as the ultimate measure of a country’s creditworthiness has long been recognised as a threat to financial stability, particularly in the Global South. Downgrades have an enormous impact, triggering sell-offs and market volatility at precisely the moment countries can least afford it. Yet the credit-ratings industry itself is neither transparent nor competitive.A recent UNDESA study found that during the pandemic, emerging-market and developing economies’ credit ratings were downgraded by a total of 125 notches, whereas advanced economies – which both contracted and accumulated debt more rapidly – were downgraded by only six notches. This probably partly reflects the fact that the big three CRAs are largely staffed and regulated in the Global North.Moreover, rating decisions are often shaped by ideological biases – such as the belief that government intervention in the economy automatically undermines growth and efficiency – instead of the factors that matter for debt sustainability: economic and social development, as well as climate resilience. Sovereign credit assessments capture climate-related risks indirectly, through environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores, but efforts to build climate resilience are ignored, despite their important implications for debt sustainability.The SIDS are among the world’s most highly indebted countries: their public-debt-to-GDP ratio averaged 82.5% in 2020, and is set to remain above 70% until 2025. Climate change is an important reason why. As a 2018 study by the United Nations Environment Programme showed, climate vulnerability raised the average cost of debt for a sample of developing economies by 117 basis points over the previous decade, forcing them to pay $40bn in additional interest payments. Some have predicted that, over the coming decade, this burden will increase by $146-168bn.This would prove catastrophic for the SIDS. If these countries are to stay above water (literally), they must be able to invest in the building blocks of sustainable growth and development: people, infrastructure, energy, and food security. But their debt-servicing costs are already massive – far bigger than the limited climate finance delivered through global agreements. From 2016 to 2020, SIDS received $9.42bn in development and climate finance to strengthen their resilience, and paid out $26.6bn to external creditors.Making matters worse, the SIDS have few options for restructuring their debts – not least because of ratings downgrades. Notably, countries participating in the G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative face the threat of a downgrade. Small wonder, then, that only three eligible countries have so far applied for relief under the Common Framework. Downgrading countries while they try to renegotiate their debts – nearly half of which is held by private bondholders – amounts to a devastating blow, as it compounds the already-high barriers between them and international credit markets.Secure, prosperous, climate-resilient states are clearly better for the rest of the world – including private creditors and advanced-economy governments – than unstable, debt-ridden countries enduring extensive human and environmental dislocation and loss. If credit ratings are to remain a market barometer, they must be made transparent, fair, and constructive.To this end, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has rightly called for the suspension of credit ratings during crises. CRAs should also suspend the publication of reviews during periods of upheaval, to allow markets to adjust to changing fundamentals.CRAs’ ideological biases and lack of transparency could be addressed by decentralising them or establishing regional or multilateral ratings agencies. Finally, CRAs should share guidance on how climate risks and adaptation efforts fit into their methodologies, particularly when it comes to rating sovereigns.Just as the credit-ratings system in the United States was reformed after the 2008 global financial crisis through the Dodd-Frank Act, CRAs must be improved in response to the challenges SIDS are now facing. Plagued by fires and floods linked to a climate crisis they had no hand in creating, these countries deserve support, not punishment. — Project Syndicate* Emily Wilkinson is a senior research fellow and Director of the Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative at ODI, a global affairs think tank.* Kanni Wignaraja, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General, is UN Development Programme Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific.

Argentina’s Javier Milei was sworn in yesterday, warning the country to brace itself for painful austerity measures as he seeks to cut spending and curb triple-digit inflation, all with empty coffers.The 53-year-old libertarian economist broke with tradition to address thousands of supporters from the steps of Congress, who waved flags and chanted “freedom!” and “chainsaw!” in reference to the power tool he carried around while campaigning to symbolise spending cuts.“There is no money,” said Milei, vowing to put an end to “decades of decadence” by his overspending predecessors who he said had left him “the worst inheritance” of any prior government.“The bottom line is that there is no alternative to austerity and there is no alternative to shock treatment.“We know that in the short term the situation will worsen. But then we will see the fruits of our efforts.”Inflation has hit almost 140% year-on-year and 40% of the population lives in poverty. Analysts have warned government reserves are deep in the red, and the heavily indebted country has few credit options.Milei warned of spending cuts equivalent to five percent of gross domestic product in Latin America’s third-biggest economy.After his speech he made his way — partly on foot, partly in a convertible — from the neo-classical Congress building to the Casa Rosada (Pink House) presidential palace, waving to supporters and flanked by his sister Karina, his closest confidant.Milei was to later swear in a cabinet of nine ministers — a major slimdown from the current 18. He has said his first set of measures will be presented to Congress in a matter of days.Earlier Milei spoke briefly to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on the steps of Congress, and the two men shared a warm embrace. Zelensky said on social media he had also held talks with leaders of Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay as he sought to shore up support for war-torn Ukraine.Also attending the ceremony was Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban — the only EU leader who has maintained close ties to Russia.“The Right is rising not only in Europe but all around the world,” Orban wrote on social media, sharing a picture of a meeting with his “good friend,” Brazil’s far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, who is also in town for the ceremony.Chile’s leftist leader Gabriel Boric and the King of Spain Felipe VI are also attending, alongside representatives from other major nations.Milei’s inauguration caps a meteoric rise for the former television panellist who entered politics only two years ago.His rants against the “thieving” establishment fired up voters and drew comparisons to leaders like Bolsonaro and former US president Donald Trump.With his deliberately dishevelled mop of hair and rock star persona, he would wave a powered-up chainsaw at political rallies, promising to slash public spending and a bloated cabinet.He vowed to “dynamite” the central bank and replace the ailing peso with the US dollar.But for Argentines, the future is mired in uncertainty over what exactly their new president plans to do.With few lawmakers from his party in Congress the hard reality of politics has set in, and Milei has softened many of his stances and allied with politicians he previously insulted, incorporating some into his cabinet.Talk of shutting the Central Bank, dollarisation and welfare cuts has dissipated.“Milei 2.0 will still face an uphill climb, but he appears to have adopted a more pragmatic agenda and sought the advice of more experienced political figures,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Argentina Project at the Washington-based Wilson Center.Among the questions hanging over Argentines’ heads in the coming days will be whether Milei will devaluate the strictly controlled peso and loosen the currency controls which have birthed a multitude of dollar exchanges.Economist Victor Beker of the University of Belgrano said the first “litmus test” for Milei will be if he actually halts the money printing by the Central Bank that he has so derided, which funds much of the government’s spending.Milei has warned that it could take between 18 and 24 months to bring the country’s inflation under control, warning of months of “stagflation” — rising prices coupled with economic stagnation.For 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a contraction of 2.5% in Argentine GDP. “Perhaps it will take us many years to rebuild the country but maybe this is the beginning of a new era for us,” said Javier Lobos, 41, a shopkeeper.“We will be able to work and strive to fulfil our dreams without the burden of suffocating taxes, inflation and the strain of a currency system that is crippling our nation.”

As the world continues to experience a prolonged period of unanticipated inflation caused by economic and non-economic shocks over the past four years, it is time for a frank reassessment of central banking and monetary policy. It is time to acknowledge what we got right and where we went wrong, to recognise the limits of our data and understanding, and to own up to the weaknesses of our models and frameworks. Above all, it is a time for humility – and for a return to core goals.Central banks cannot solve all that ails our economies. They should not be expected to solve problems that other actors can better address, such as collective global goals outside their competence. Instead, central banks and their leaders should focus on three objectives: price stability, financial stability, and macroeconomic stability. Achieving these three goals is hard enough. We should dial back public expectations that central banks can or should do more than this.What does a humble approach to central banking mean in practice? For starters, central banks need to be more realistic about their ability to forecast macroeconomic outcomes with great precision. Their recent track record has demonstrated this. If we look at the Federal Reserve Board and the “hair” diagram, as inflation jumped, staff economists repeatedly projected a return to 2% inflation from wherever the current estimate stood. Again and again, the forecasts were wrong – and in both directions.Other central banks have suffered similar forecasting failures as the return to the inflation anchor of 2% is “baked in” in most forecasting models. Advanced-economy central banks and their leaders misread the early indications of the inflationary spike with which we are still grappling, owing to the wrongheaded belief that the emerging price hikes were transitory. This led to a lag in monetary-policy responses, which exacerbated the height of the inflationary spike and the economic pain that ensued, and ultimately required historically steep interest-rate hikes.Policy planning and decision-making were muddied further by the adoption of new or adjusted monetary-policy frameworks during the previous prolonged period of low inflation. These models contained assumptions that slowed responses when exogenous shocks (the pandemic), supply shocks (the trade impacts), and fiscal shocks (the size and persistence of the stimulus that was triggered) adversely impacted inflationary pressures and outcomes.First Things FirstA key part of adopting a humble approach to central banking would require policymakers to return to fundamental, time-tested principles of macro- and monetary economics. In particular, policymakers must avoid overreliance on specific predictive models of inflation. Ideally, central banks should develop frameworks that achieve reasonable forecast results, regardless of the nature of the shock hitting the economy, and they should communicate the degree of uncertainty to the markets and the public. In doing so, they can preserve the option of shifting policy stances as circumstances change, rather than promising long periods of policy stasis based on problematic assumptions.A humble approach would also require that central banks’ preserve future policy space. In this recent suboptimal policymaking cycle, we all witnessed leading central banks locking themselves into policy stances that constrained their ability to act swiftly via long-term policy commitments when the economic situation shifted suddenly, particularly when inflation reared its head. We believe central banks should tilt toward simpler and more transparent rules, rather than implementing drastic long-term discretionary measures that threaten to undermine their ability to act in the future.Crucially, embracing the humble approach requires central banks to maintain their focus on the inflation anchor, typically set at 2%. All major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and others – have converged on the 2% target. Now is not the time to question or lose sight of that objective. Suggesting doctrinal flexibility or raising inflation targets at a time of higher price growth and ongoing worries over long-term expectations is the wrong answer. Central banks must remain committed to preventing inflation from spiralling out of control, and their credible commitment to an inflation anchor is central to achieving that objective.Reputation is like a capital stock. The central bank can temporarily let inflation run above target if it fears the consequences of raising rates will be too severe, but its reputation for competence will be eroded. If the public’s view of the central bank becomes sufficiently negative, inflation expectations could stray from the target, possibly leading to price spiral. That would be a terrible outcome, and one that can and must be avoided.Avoiding Financial DominanceSome pundits now believe that the worst is behind us, and that we can relax. We do not agree. Around the world, public debt levels are high, and with interest rates rising and payments growing, issues of debt sustainability have come to the fore. Tensions between the necessity for tighter monetary and fiscal policies and governments’ desire to relieve the pain will thus emerge and grow.Governments may be encouraged to put political pressure on central banks to keep interest rates low or lower than is needed. As costs loom for the public and governments, a “blame game” will surely arise, in which policymakers attempt to avoid culpability for inflation. We must be clear on the absolute necessity of controlling inflation, even in the face of political brickbats and attacks. Only by doing so can central banks ensure their public support and continued credibility.Given high private debt and leverage levels, we worry about the emergence of a new regime of “financial dominance.” In this situation, central banks may be loath to tighten monetary policy because of worries about the risks to the stability of financial markets, which have become perhaps too reliant on central-bank support. The bank failures in the United States and Europe in the first half of 2023 demonstrated this link, and the prolonged nature of central-bank support may still hide sources of financial instability when policymakers finally withdraw support from addicted firms and sectors.Central bankers are right to worry about such risks, which partly reflect their own past actions. Looking ahead, to avoid succumbing to financial dominance, central bankers will need to turn to their supervisory staff to deal with the negative spillover effects of past monetary-policy largesse as rates tighten.Independence Is EverythingTo achieve their core goals, central banks require independence from political interference. With independence comes a heavy burden of responsibility, and this is a key reason why central bankers must accept the deliberately narrow mandate that the humble approach implies.Independence is also best served when central banks communicate their policies clearly and effectively, and there has been progress in this domain in the US, Europe, and elsewhere. It is appropriate that central-bank governors testify to legislators and answer questions raised by elected officials. The public and other market participants need to understand why and when central bankers decide to act.The real test for central-bank independence comes when necessary monetary-policy tightening causes public-debt levels and payments to rise. As governments confront hard fiscal decisions, the danger to central-bank independence increases. We know what a lack of independence looks and feels like. Ask any resident of Argentina about the sky-high inflation that has become a painful fact of daily life. The economic effects are real, impoverishing, and socially devastating. Those of us from small open economies can remember the corrosive economic effects of inflation, as well as the dramatic positive effects of the return to price stability.Crucially, once inflation is allowed to take hold, if independence and credibility are lacking, people’s inflationary expectations for the future are adversely affected, and the results can be deeply harmful. Only with operational independence can central banks continue to fulfil their price stability and other related mandates, learn from policy mistakes, address ongoing inflationary pressures, and chart a way forward, mindful of emerging and morphing risks.Here, we can learn a valuable lesson from emerging-market central banks. The improved resilience and performance of emerging markets is due in part to the lessons learned from their severe debt and macroeconomic crises in previous years. While advanced-economy central bankers delayed responding to the recent bout of inflation, believing that it was transitory, (and thereby raising the cost and monetary-policy pain needed in the end), emerging-market central banks acted early as the inflationary impulse was becoming visible, hiked rates aggressively, and quickly halted and reversed inflation. – Project SyndicatelJacob Frenkel is a former governor of the Bank of Israel (1991-2000). Raghuram G Rajan is a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India (2013-16). Axel A Weber is a former president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (2004-11).

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A mix of global economic unease and geopolitical uncertainty means optimism is in short supply among bankers from the City of London to Frankfurt’s ‘Mainhattan’ financial district.Even rainmakers renowned for seemingly conjuring deals from nowhere are struggling to see ways to work their magic and drag investment banking revenues out of the doldrums.Finance executives, consultants and headhunters interviewed by Reuters predict subdued deal flows, modest bonuses for most and heavy job cuts in 2024.“2023 will ultimately be one of the lowest corporate finance fee pools in modern history,” said Fabrizio Campelli, head of Corporate Bank and Investment Bank at Deutsche Bank.The $2,669 billion of deals struck so far this year globally is the lowest since 2005, Dealogic data shows, while in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, the $616 billion of deals which have been completed is the lowest since 2004.It is not only corporate dealmaking that is on the back foot. Banks are wary profits will come under pressure from tighter regulation, including tougher capital requirements dubbed the ‘Basel Endgame’ which are set to be rolled out by global regulators from 2025.And while consumer lending has boomed on the back of central bank policy moves, margins are now in retreat as interest rates peak and competition for deposits intensifies.“Overall, the outlook for the next few years for banks is flat revenue,” said Ronan O’Kelly, partner and head of corporate and institutional banking for Europe at consultant Oliver Wyman.Banks have already turned to cost cuts to try to weather the downturn, which in a people-intensive business means job losses.Global growth is set to fall from 2.9% this year to 2.7% in 2024 before picking up in 2025, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday.“Cost (cutting) is the biggest single lever that banks can pull to bring returns to where they should be,” O’Kelly said.Barclays is weighing cutting up to 2,000 back-office jobs in addition to layoffs across its UK retail, corporate and investment bank, Reuters reported, while rival Lloyds has put 2,500 jobs at risk. Challenger Metro Bank said it could axe as many as 1 in 5 jobs.Major headcount contractions are also expected at UBS and Citi amid big restructurings.Workers’ unions, however, say banks are overstating their problems after some reported record profits this year.Dominic Hook, national officer at Britain’s Unite, said he was fed up with them “pleading poverty”.“The short-term approach of slashing workers, offshoring and outsourcing services has been shown to fail everyone from local communities to small businesses,” he said.The dearth of activity means bonuses for this year are likely to disappoint, although some banks may be more generous to retain talent in case of a sharp rebound, with Goldman Sachs among those weighing hikes despite a dismal 2023.“At relatively quiet times like these, it is still important to have the best people who are ready for when the market picks up again,” said Vis Raghavan, CEO of EMEA and Co-Head of Global Investment Banking, JP Morgan.Morgan McKinley’s London Employment Monitor showed a 31% fall in financial services vacancies year-on-year in the third quarter, although some 52% of UK financial firms still plan to hire in the next six months.One of those predicting an uptick in business in 2024 is Stephane Rambosson, co-founder of headhunter Vici Advisory.“Activity should be up next year, so if you don’t pay your best people you risk losing them,” Rambosson said.In order to reward the bankers who do remain, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing has called on the European Union to consider following Britain’s lead by removing caps on variable compensation.Santander Chair Ana Botin told an event this week such reforms would help banks to better align staff remuneration with shareholder returns.Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the West and China have led to caution in boardrooms, slowing investment and dealmaking, while putting all but the most pressing refinancings on the back burner.“It’s not a terrible time to be a banker but you can’t keep everyone busy and as productive throughout the cycle,” said JP Morgan’s Raghavan.“That said, there’s $6tn in debt that needs to be refinanced over the next two years and banks will be doing that work but that is just flow, and the alpha is not in the flow,” he added, with reference to “alpha”, how banks measure their money-making advantage over competitors.Looming elections in the United States, India and Britain next year are compounding the ongoing corporate inertia. — Reuters

Tens of thousands of protesters marched in Brussels yesterday to demand urgent action against climate change as world leaders gathered for crunch COP28 talks in the United Arab Emirates.“No to climate change, yes to system change” and “We want a liveable and healthy planet” were among the slogans on posters and placards.The crowd braved low temperatures in the Belgian capital to the sound of drums and other musical entertainment following a call by the Climate Coalition, which brings together 90 civil society organisations.Organisers said 25,000 people attended, while police estimated their number at 20,000.“This march isn’t taking place on any date, it’s happening at the start of COP28... we really need international negotiations to move forward,” Climate Coalition president Nicolas Van Nuffel told AFP. “We’re in the street with very concrete demands so that we speed up home insulation, increase cycle paths and reinvest in public transport.” Many of the demonstrators sent messages to political leaders, among them Nienke, a student. “My future is in danger and I really want to live in a safer world... I feel so stressed by what will happen to our planet,” she told AFP.Agnes, a pensioner, felt that relying on politicians was no longer the answer.“They have not been doing what they should be doing for years... There is no planet B,” she said.

As the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas collapsed, some world leaders at the UN climate summit criticised Israel yesterday and called for the Gaza war to end, while US and UK officials held meetings on the conflict on the gathering’s sidelines.The war’s prominence in speeches at the Dubai event served to highlight international divisions over the bloodshed and presented a distraction for a summit where nations are trying to find consensus on the shared threat posed by climate change.“While discussing the climate crisis, we cannot ignore the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Palestinian territories right beside us,” Turkiye’s President Tayyip Erdogan told leaders during his formal speech to the COP28 conference.“The current situation in Gaza constitutes a war crime and a crime against humanity; those responsible must be held accountable under international law,” he said.South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa echoed the sentiment.“South Africa is appalled by the cruel tragedy that is under way in Gaza. The war against the innocent people of Palestine is a war crime that must be ended now,” he said in his address.Jordan’s King Abdullah said it was difficult to focus on global warming while the fighting was going on.“This year’s conference of the parties must recognise even more than ever that we cannot talk about climate change in isolation from the humanitarian tragedies unfolding around us,” he said.A group of demonstrators at the conference, some wearing shirts that spelled “ceasefire”, chanted “Free Palestine”. Elsewhere on the summit grounds, a display of shoes was meant to represent the thousands killed in Gaza.An Israeli official told Reuters the military was abiding by international law and was intent on destroying the fighter group Hamas.Protests, while a common feature of climate conferences, are a rarity in the United Arab Emirates, the COP28’s host nation. A COP28 spokesperson said “the UAE protects the right to protests in line with relevant international agreements.” “Today was pretty awful,” Mohamed Ursof, a Palestinian student from Gaza based in Qatar and attending the summit, said of the resumption in fighting. The “international youth delegate” said he would try to raise awareness at the COP28 conference of the Palestinian cause.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday that he met officials from Arab states and discussed the future of the Gaza Strip on the sidelines of the COP28. A senior State Department official said Blinken met foreign ministers from Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, alongside representatives of the Palestinian Authority.The office of the British prime minister said Rishi Sunak and Qatar Amir His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, both at the Dubai conference, discussed their deep regret over the collapse of the temporary pause in fighting.Israel’s President Isaac Herzog was also at COP28, where a day earlier he met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.Israel’s bombardment and invasion of Gaza has killed over 15,000 Palestinians, according to Gazan health officials. It was launched in retaliation for a storming by Hamas fighters into Israel in the first week of October.Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifah and Iraq’s President Abdul Latif Rashid called for an end to the war.Iran’s delegation left the summit in protest at Israel’s presence, Iranian media reported, while Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro linked environmental issues with the war.“If Palestine could be free today then tomorrow humanity will escape alive out of the throes of the climate crisis,” he said.

Global debt constitutes borrowing by governments, businesses and people, and it’s at dangerously high levels.Global debt climbed by $10tn in the first half of 2023, resuming its upward march as a share of the world economy after falling for close to two years as inflation surged, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).Liabilities clocked in at record $307tn, up a “staggering” $100tn over the past decade, according to the group representing the world’s largest international banks and financial institutions.The US, Japan, the UK and France have led the latest advance.As a share of world gross domestic product, global debt climbed to 336% from 334% at the end of last year and is projected by the IIF to hit 337% by the end of 2023, largely driven by sizeable government budget deficits.Over 80% of the $10tn rise in global debt in the first half came from developed economies, says the IIF.The IIF has voiced concern over the high levels of government debt, especially in emerging and frontier markets, zeroing in on liabilities in local currencies.The fallout from a mix of external shocks and mounting financial troubles are washing over low- and middle-income countries, creating perhaps the biggest confluence of challenges since the 1990s, when a series of rolling crises sank economies and toppled governments.Before the Covid-19, the world’s poorer countries had a debt problem. The pandemic made it worse.By the end of 2021, more than 70 low-income nations faced a collective debt burden of $326bn. Their debt service burden had more than doubled since 2010 as a percentage of gross national income, according to the World Bank.In 2022, their annual debt payments totalled about $62bn, about 35% more than the year before. By early 2023, more than half of those were already in or near debt distress.The global economy surpassed $100tn for the first time in 2022; but government debt levels as a share of GDP increased in over 100 developing countries between 2019 and 2021, says UNCTAD.While recession concerns have eased in some quarters, six out of 10 chief economists expect the global economy to weaken this year, according to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook.Emerging and developing economies have been the worst hit by previous debt crises, World Bank research shows.To meet debt payments, at least 100 countries will have to reduce spending on health, education and social protection, the International Monetary Fund estimates.If countries default on their debts, it can cause panic on financial markets and economic slowdowns.For businesses, meeting repayments on high levels of debt can mean less money is available to invest in jobs and expansion. For households, high levels of debt can force them to cut some areas of spending, such as food or fuel.Low-income households are most at risk, according to the IMF.Debt is near or higher than 100% of output in Britain, the US and Italy. Ageing populations, climate change and geopolitical risks such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East mean significant spending pressures ahead.Interest payments surging with high rates add to the pressure.US net interest payments will rise from 2.5% to 3.6% of GDP by 2033 and 6.7% by 2053, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility expects interest costs to rise to 7.8% of revenues by 2027-28, from 3.1% in 2020-21, exacerbated by inflation-linked debt.Even Germany’s interest spending is up 10-fold since 2021 to nearly €40bn.Efficient spending, reforms and growth plans are key to managing mounting debt levels, according to experts.

A wave of evictions recently hit in Dakar’s bustling Liberté 6 market, a roughly mile-long commercial hub that has served its community for more than 20 years. Hundreds of street vendors’ stalls were bulldozed to make way for a new bus system. Authorities gave prior notice and an indemnity to help with the loss of business, but did not address the real problem: the lack of trading space.Street vending is a legitimate economic activity that provides livelihoods for millions and accounts for a large share of urban employment in many cities across the Global South. Nearly 59,000 street vendors work in Dakar, accounting for 13.8% of total employment, while metropolitan Lima has roughly 450,000, comprising 8.8% of total employment. And these numbers are likely growing as the informal economy absorbs many of those left unemployed by the Covid-19 pandemic.It is a livelihood that requires one resource above all: access to busy, pedestrian-friendly, well-connected, and affordable public space. But government authorities focus instead on “cleaning up” cities, which means clearing the streets of vendors. In their view, informal traders are a nuisance: they litter and clutter streets, obstruct urban mobility, and occupy precious space that could be used for modernisation or beautification projects, or sold to deep-pocketed developers and transformed into oases of leisure for urban elites.The failure to provide street vendors with the space they need is short-sighted, at best (eviction campaigns never solve the “problem” – workers often have no choice but to set up shop again). In 2015, the International Labour Organisation recommended that subsistence workers be permitted to use public space as member states move from informal to formal economies. Yet time and again, governments have implemented narrow policies and legal frameworks that curtail access.In fact, this pattern has become embedded in policymakers’ strategies to formalise the informal economy. These strategies, focused mainly on getting informal workers to register and pay taxes, can provide important opportunities, including access to social protection, financing, and professional training. But they almost never recognise public space as a workplace, perpetuating the status quo. Instead, they build complex structures on shaky foundations – namely, punitive legal and policy frameworks that criminalise informal trading and deny the most vulnerable access to economic activities.Proposals to relocate street vendors to enclosed markets are often empty promises – or implemented with little or no consultation with the affected individuals, resulting in poorly planned markets far from the city’s commercial hubs and difficult to reach. Vendors either shun or quickly abandon them, returning instead to the streets from which they were removed.Acutely aware of their precarity, street vendors usually have one goal: to trade without fear of harassment or eviction. “I know we are not allowed to work here, but I have a family to feed,” said an informal worker selling mobile phones from a small kiosk in Guédiawaye, a municipality on the outskirts of Dakar, in an interview in 2022 conducted by my organisation, WIEGO (Women in Informal Employment: Globalising and Organising). “All I want is to be able to work and make a living,” added the man, who asked not to be named. Pointing to an empty patch of land across the street, he said, “With other vendors, we asked the municipality to authorise us to sell there, but we got no response.”The United Nations’ New Urban Agenda, adopted in 2016, recognises that public space can function as a workplace reality and supports measures that allow for the “best possible commercial use of street-level floors, fostering both formal and informal local markets and commerce.” A legal framework that guarantees informal vendors access to this space must underpin any formalisation strategy. In fact, it is a logical prerequisite for all other aspects of formalisation, like registration and taxation.Of course, as a scarce resource, urban public space is highly sought after, and there are many competing interests. But its effective management requires input from workers in informal employment, as various initiatives have demonstrated. In India, for example, the 2014 Street Vendors Act established “town vending committees,” consisting of government officials, sellers, and others, to make decisions about trading locations and monitor evictions and relocations. In the 1990s, the Lima municipality involved street vendors from the outset in its relocation planning process to ensure that they had proper access to infrastructure and customers. Between 2009 and 2011, the Dakar municipality started an effective dialogue with informal traders about relocation.These examples are far from perfect. The inclusive planning process was discontinued in Lima (though it did result in successful relocations), as were the dialogues in Dakar, while India’s Street Vendors Act is only partly implemented. But they show that the inclusive management of public space is possible. — Project Syndicate

These are, for sure, tough times for the oil market.Just weeks ago, Brent crude was on the cusp of finally fulfilling industry forecasts of a return to $100 a barrel as record fuel demand and Saudi Arabia’s supply cuts depleted global oil inventories.The eruption of conflict in the Middle East shortly after heightened the risk of a price spike.But on November 8 the benchmark retreated to a three-month low under $80 a barrel. Concerns about supply are giving way to doubts about plunging refinery profits in China and Europe, lacklustre physical cargo trading and an uncertain economic outlook for the US.The situation is a sharp reversal from late September, when Brent rallied above $97 a barrel and the Opec alliance projected an unprecedented decline in oil inventories amid record fuel demand and extra production cuts by Saudi Arabia.Oil prices rose on Monday after Opec’s monthly market report eased market concerns about waning demand in the United States and China. Prices steadied yesterday as the International Energy Agency indicated the market isn’t as tight as previously expected, even as demand continues to climb.But investors had been worried after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said the country’s crude oil production this year will rise by slightly less than previously expected and that demand will fall.Weak economic data last week from China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer, also raised fears of faltering demand. Chinese refiners asked for less supply for December from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter.Falling oil prices may spell relief for big consuming nations like the US, where gasoline prices near $4 a gallon have squeezed households and threatened to become a political liability for President Joe Biden.And it could offer respite for central banks such as the Federal Reserve, as it seeks to wrap up a spell of prolonged monetary tightening.On the other hand, oil’s retreat is a particular setback for Saudi Arabia, which leads a coalition between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major crude producers including Russia.Next year, oil supplies from the US, Brazil and Guyana are also projected to swell.Many traders have said they were having to discount cargoes due to weaker demand from refineries, which face a slide in the profits for making fuels like gasoline and high shipping costs.European consumption of diesel and naphtha — fuels that power trucks, trains, ships and construction — has plunged.Goldman Sachs Group, which had led Wall Street’s calls for the return of $100 crude, said in a report last month that the acute inventory declines anticipated by the industry had yet to materialise.Next year, US gasoline demand per capita will plunge to the lowest in two decades, just as production climbs to a record above 13mn barrels a day, according to the EIA.Oil’s see-saw trajectory is a double-edged sword.Major oil producing countries will lose money regardless of the market share they enjoy. The Gulf countries produce oil at the lowest cost; but due to high government spending, they need higher prices to balance their budgets.But big importing nations such as China, India and Germany could get some relief from falling energy bills.But cheap oil can cut investments to develop new oil and gas fields.Matter-of-factly, few analysts would realistically expect oil prices to return to the sustainable $100-plus levels in the long-term. But oil companies say global energy future envisages rising demand and population growth, making oil an important fuel for decades to come.The world is in need of a stable oil market with price equilibrium.

If humankind is ever to establish long-term bases on the moon, there will be a need for a regular source of food. It is not practical, however, to think you can plant corn or wheat in plain lunar soil in greenhouses on the moon and expect a bumper crop – or any crop at all. But scientists are taking steps toward making moon agriculture a real possibility, Reuters reported. Researchers said on Thursday they have found a way to turn inhospitable lunar soil fertile by introducing bacteria that enhance the availability of phosphorus, an important plant nutrient. They performed experiments growing a relative of tobacco using simulated moon soil, more properly called lunar regolith, in a laboratory in China. They found that such soil treated with three species of bacteria produced plants with longer stems and roots as well as heavier and wider clusters of leaves compared to the same soil without the microbes. The action of the bacteria, the researchers said, made the soil more acidic. This resulting low pH environment caused insoluble phosphate-containing minerals to dissolve and release the phosphorus in them, increasing phosphorus availability for the plants. “The importance of these findings is that we may be able to use these microbes to turn the lunar regolith into bio-friendly substrate for plant cultivation in future lunar greenhouses,” said researcher Yitong Xia of the China Agricultural University in Beijing, lead author of the study published in the journal Communications Biology. In a study published last year, researchers in the US grew a flowering weed called Arabidopsis thaliana in 12 thimble-sized containers, each bearing a gram of actual moon soil collected during Nasa missions more than a half century ago. Arabidopsis, also called thale cress, is a plant widely used in scientific research. In that study, Arabidopsis did grow, but not as robustly in the lunar soil as in volcanic ash from Earth used for comparative purposes, suggesting that lunar soil could use a little help to become more fertile. The new research involved benth, scientific name Nicotiana benthamiana, another plant often used in research. The study used simulated regolith because genuine lunar soil, as one might imagine, is in short supply on Earth. The researchers used volcanic material from the Changbai mountains of China’s Jilin Province to create soil with similar chemical and physical properties to lunar regolith. The three bacteria used in the study were: Bacillus mucilaginosus, Bacillus megaterium and Pseudomonas fluorescens. The researchers tested other bacteria as well, but those did not produce the same beneficial effects. “Considering the huge scientific and economic potential of the moon, we will need to set up manned lunar bases in the future. But how can we provide food, oxygen and water for the crew members? Of course we can carry them to the moon by rockets, but that is economically unsustainable. A greenhouse for plant cultivation on the moon could greatly reduce the need of Earth-moon transportation,” Xia said. A plant cultivation system on the moon could help meet long-term food and oxygen requirements for human crews, Xia added. Plants produce oxygen as a byproduct of photosynthesis, the biological process in which they turn sunlight into energy. “We have several ways to grow plants on the moon, including transporting horticultural soil to the moon, building up a hydroponic system (growing plants without soil) or using soil substitute like hydrogels (gels whose liquid component is water). Those methods do not need lunar soil, but all of them would consume huge carrying capability on rockets, making these plans very expensive,” Xia said. “In contrast, our technique, which is a kind of in-situ resource utilisation, applies microbial improvement to the lunar soil, making it more fertile and capable for plant cultivation,” Xia added. “Our study achieved the same goal with much less consumption of carrying capability comparing with other plans.”

Global energy intensity improved by just over 2% in 2022, but it needs to double to 4% annually by 2030 to meet global efficiency targets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).If achieved, this would result in a 40% increase in economic output per unit of energy used around the world.More than half of the 150 countries analysed by the IEA have achieved a 4% improvement at least three times in the past decade, and five G20 countries – China, France, Indonesia, Japan, and the UK – have sustained an average of 4% or more over a five-year period.The global energy crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war led to a new focus on energy efficiency according to analysts. This was seen as a way to tackle energy security, affordability, and the climate crisis all at once and governments responded by implementing measures to promote energy efficiency while offering incentives for efficient technology.According to IEA, over 70% of the global economy introduced new or strengthened efficiency measures. As a result, there has been a surge in investment in energy efficiency and consumers are more interested in reducing their energy use than ever before.The agency says its ‘Energy Efficiency Policy Toolkit’ can help guide governments towards taking the necessary steps to achieve these targets.Experts say the right technologies exist in key areas like air conditioners, lighting, building codes, car fuel economy, electric motors and heavy industry; so now is the time for the right policies, support and incentives to be implemented.The global target to triple renewable capacity by 2030 was in the spotlight at a recent meeting of ministers in the United Arab Emirates ahead of COP28, but achieving the goal certainly requires significant financial support and reforms.The good news however, is that renewable energy is becoming economically competitive with fossil fuels. But a report suggested that to reduce fossil fuel consumption quickly enough to combat global warming, a plan for managed decline is necessary.Meanwhile, the UK-based Energy Networks Association (ENA) and the Global Renewables Alliance have launched a report that outlines a roadmap to fast-track the energy transition by tripling renewable energy power and at the same time doubling energy efficiency by 2030 – a key pillar of the COP28 Presidency’s Action Agenda.Achieving energy efficiency is crucial for various reasons, and its importance extends across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.Although, energy powers global economies, its production and consumption certainly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Improving energy efficiency reduces the overall demand for energy, thereby lowering emissions and helping mitigate climate change.Energy-efficient technologies and practices often result in cost savings for businesses, industries, and households.By using less energy to achieve the same or better results, individuals and organisations can reduce their energy bills.Energy efficiency measures contribute to making energy more affordable and accessible, especially for marginalised communities.Therefore, achieving energy efficiency is a multifaceted goal with far-reaching benefits. It plays a pivotal role in addressing environmental challenges, promoting economic development, ensuring energy security, and enhancing the well-being of individuals and communities worldwide.

Days of heavy rains in northern France have caused local rivers to overflow and flood houses and fields, prompting the evacuation of residents, with some having to be airlifted to safety.More than 100 towns are on red alert, and some 200 schools in the region have been shut. Rescue workers have also had to evacuate cattle.“It’s catastrophic,” said 32-year old farmer Gaetan Guche, whose poultry farm has been flooded, with up to 60cm of water at times over the past five days.Some chickens have been killed by the water, and he is worried about the others, fearing the spread of disease amid the humidity.“We have to wait for the water to go down before we can see the whole damage,” Guche said. “But I’ve had losses in chickens, financial losses in terms of seeds and equipment, and so today, it’s really hard.”Nearby, strawberry farmer Jean-Loup Mionnet, whose fields are partly submerged in water, said next spring’s harvest was compromised, fearing he will have few to no strawberries.“We’ve never seen something like that,” said campsite owner Jean-Marc Joyez in the village of Enquin-sur-Baillons, where many houses have been flooded and roads submerged.Environment Minister Christophe Bechu said dozens of towns would be considered in a situation of natural disaster, which makes it easier for those whose homes or businesses were flooded to benefit from insurance coverage.

With the world’s human population expected to reach a staggering ten billion in the next century, the question of how to achieve food security looms large. The current food system is certainly not up to the task: already, it is failing to ensure that the global population is nourished and contributing to environmental degradation. Radical reform is long overdue.About 735mn people worldwide faced hunger last year. Some 828 million were undernourished, and nearly 148mn children under five were affected by stunting. Lack of access to fresh, nutritious food has also contributed to rising obesity levels in many communities, as people have been forced to turn to unhealthy foods. Obesity raises the risk of chronic illnesses like type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancer, and hypertension.Malnutrition in all its forms (underweight, overweight, and micronutrient-deficiency) heightens a person’s vulnerability to infections, fuelling a harmful cycle of adverse health outcomes. Meanwhile, the constant struggle to secure adequate nutrition – even to avoid starvation – takes a toll on one’s mental health, leading to anxiety, stress, depression, and more. As a recent United Nations report underscores, the right to food and the right to health are inextricably linked.The food system is also causing severe environmental harm. It accounts for approximately one-quarter of global greenhouse-gas emissions, making it a major driver of climate change. Moreover, agriculture takes up nearly half of the world’s habitable land. Areas once occupied by lush forests and other wild terrain – including significant swaths of the Amazon rainforest, which is critical to planetary health – have been cleared to make room for farming, with devastating consequences for biodiversity.The problem is compounded by the widespread use of pesticides, which are linked – even at relatively low exposure – to multiple adverse health and environmental consequences for agricultural workers and local communities and ecosystems. The contamination of the Pasión River in Guatemala with malathion, a pesticide used on palm-oil plantations, led to the death of thousands of fish, depriving some 12,000 people of their primary source of food and the basis of their livelihood.The consequences of the food system’s failings are felt disproportionately by the poor and marginalised, especially in the Global South. Malnutrition is particularly prevalent in low-income settings or among individuals living in poverty. In high-income countries such as Australia, the risk of obesity among indigenous people is as much as 1.5 times higher than it is for non-indigenous people in comparable areas.It does not help that 60% of the global proprietary seed market is controlled by four agrochemical companies based in high-income countries. The seeds provided by these firms – on which farmers in low-income countries depend – are often for crops that are not nutritionally diverse or do not meet the dietary needs of local communities.The current system is clearly not fit for purpose. But efforts to improve it are fundamentally inadequate, as they do not account for the deep linkages among food, health, and the environment. Rather than tackling each issue separately, a better approach would be grounded in human rights. Recognising that the rights to health, food, and a clean environment are indivisible and interdependent would advance all three in tandem. As the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights affirms, all people deserve access not only to health facilities, but also to the underlying determinants of health, such as nutritious food and a sustainable environment.The first step is a comprehensive UN treaty on food systems that accounts for all relevant rights and actors, and mitigates health and environmental harms that arise along the entire food value chain. Such a treaty must reflect the needs and priorities of low-income countries and vulnerable groups, such as people experiencing poverty, displaced people, and women and children. It must incorporate local knowledge about the entire food system, from production, processing, and packaging to promotion, distribution, sale, and consumption. In engaging local communities, the NOURISHING policy framework, developed by the World Cancer Research Fund International, could offer valuable lessons.With soaring food prices having propelled hunger to the top of the global agenda, the world has a golden opportunity to adopt a human-rights-based approach to food and lay the groundwork for a healthier, more equitable, and more sustainable future.

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British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak championed a series of landmark agreements after hosting the first artificial intelligence (AI) safety summit but a global plan for overseeing the technology remains a long way off.Over two days of talks between world leaders, business executives and researchers, tech CEOs such as Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Sam Altman rubbed shoulders with the likes of US Vice-President Kamala Harris and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss the future regulation of AI.Leaders from 28 nations — including China — signed the Bletchley Declaration, a joint statement acknowledging the technology’s risks; the US and Britain both announced plans to launch their own AI safety institutes; and two more summits were announced to take place in South Korea and France next year.But while some consensus was reached on the need to regulate AI, disagreements remain over exactly how that should happen — and who will lead such efforts.Risks around rapidly-developing AI have been an increasingly high priority for policymakers since Microsoft-backed Open AI released ChatGPT to the public last year.The chatbot’s unprecedented ability to respond to prompts with human-like fluency has led some experts to call for a pause in the development of such systems, warning they could gain autonomy and threaten humanity.Sunak talked of being “privileged and excited” to host Tesla-founder Musk, but European lawmakers warned of too much technology and data being held by a small number of companies in one country, the US.“Having just one single country with all of the technologies, all of the private companies, all the devices, all the skills, will be a failure for all of us,” French Minister of the Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire told reporters.The UK has also diverged from the EU by proposing light-touch approach to AI regulation, in contrast to Europe’s AI Act, which is close to being finalised and will bind developers of what are deemed “high risk” applications to stricter controls.“I came here to sell our AI Act,” said Vera Jourova, Vice-President of the European Commission.Jourova said, while she did not expect other countries to copy the bloc’s laws wholesale, some agreement on global rules was required.“If the democratic world will not be rule-makers, and we become rule-takers, the battle will be lost,” she said.While projecting an image of unity, attendees said the three main power blocs in attendance — the US, the EU, and China — tried to assert their dominance.Some suggested Harris had upstaged Sunak when the US government announced its own AI safety institute — just as Britain had a week earlier — and she delivered a speech in London highlighting the technology’s short-term risks, in contrast to the summit’s focus on existential threats.“It was fascinating that just as we announced our AI safety institute, the Americans announced theirs,” said attendee Nigel Toon, CEO of British AI firm Graphcore.China’s presence at the summit and its decision to sign off on the “Bletchley Declaration” was trumpeted as a success by British officials.China’s vice minister of science and technology said the country was willing to work with all sides on AI governance.Signalling tension between China and the West, however, Wu Zhaohui told delegates: “Countries regardless of their size and scale have equal rights to develop and use AI.”A recurring theme of the behind-closed-door discussions, highlighted by a number of attendees, was the potential risks of open-source AI, which gives members of the public free access to experiment with the code behind the technology.

Former prime minister Boris Johnson (pictured) asked the UK government’s top scientific advisers early in the pandemic if a “special hairdryer” could be used against Covid, it emerged yesterday.As the virus began to spread worldwide in March 2020, Johnson shared with officials a YouTube video of the dryer being used “to kill Covid”, according to his former top aide Dominic Cummings.The ex-British leader wanted Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific advisor, to give their opinions about it, Cummings claimed in a statement submitted to a public inquiry into Covid.It is examining the UK government’s performance dealing with the virus, which led to nearly 130,000 fatalities being recorded in Britain by mid-July 2021.The toll is one of the worst official Covid-19 death counts in the world.Cummings, who quit Johnson’s government in late 2020 after falling out with him, has used his 115-page witness statement and in-person testimony to assail his former boss’s handling of the crisis.“A low point was when he circulated a video of a guy blowing a special hairdryer up his nose ‘to kill Covid’ and asked the CSA and CMO what they thought,” the former aide stated, referring to Whitty and Vallance.AFP FactCheck debunked the claim about hair dryers and saunas killing coronavirus on March 19, 2020.Cummings also claimed Johnson was “extremely distracted” when the virus first hit Britain, due to various personal and political matters.“He had a divorce to finalise and was grappling with financial problems from that,” he wrote.“An ex-girlfriend was making accusations about him in the media. His current girlfriend wanted to finalise the announcement of their engagement.“He said he wanted to work on his Shakespeare book,” Cummings added.The inquiry, chaired by a retired senior judge, is to interview Johnson and current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who was finance minister during the pandemic, later this year.Johnson was ousted last year by Conservative MPs after a string of scandals, including the so-called “Partygate” controversy around lockdown-breaching parties in Downing Street.He quit as an MP in June after lawmakers found he had deliberately misled them about the affair.Cummings has also faced criticism, in particular for abusive language revealed in text messages from the time and his part in a “toxic” culture atop the UK government.“The dominant culture was macho and heroic,” Helen MacNamara, who was one of the country’s highest ranking female officials, testified yesterday.“It was positively unhelpful when the country needed thoughtful and reflective decision-making.”

It was more than two weeks before doctors even realised what they were treating, the fourth outbreak in five years of the lethal, brain-swelling Nipah virus in India’s Kerala region. By then, hundreds of people had been exposed to the bat pathogen.Halting the disease’s spread required deploying an army of workers, who put this village and eight others on partial lockdown for two weeks, surveyed more than 53,000 houses for signs of illness and tracked down 1,200 people who had come into contact with infected patients, according to the World Health Organisation.Ultimately, six people were infected, and two of them died. Though Kerala’s response to contain the outbreak drew international praise, the quick spread of the virus and its impact on tens of thousands of people illustrate what many scientists and world health leaders say is a weakness in public health policy: relying solely on disease containment. Governments, they say, must also control land development and protect animal habitats in areas where there is high risk of pathogens leaping from animals to people, a phenomenon known as spillover.The lesson comes at an important time, as global health leaders work on a legally binding accord for responding to future global health crises. Though many have been advocating for spillover prevention measures, a main difficulty in the negotiations so far has been balancing the needs of emerging economies against the risk of unchecked development.Because spillover risk is concentrated in lower income countries in the tropical south, the cost of preventing another pandemic falls squarely on nations that can least afford it.Authorities in India’s national government say it’s a cost that can’t be ignored. Stopping bat viruses from spreading requires not just rapid response to outbreaks but careful monitoring of the bats themselves, said Subrat Mohapatra, a forestry official in India’s environment ministry. To that end, federal and state officials say they are talking about ways to protect bat habitats in areas where spillover risk is high.“We have learned to manage the spillovers, but we have to constantly keep track of the high-risk zones as if they are volcanoes waiting to erupt,” Mohapatra said.Analysis of environmental conditions and other factors that contribute to spillover makes it possible to identify danger zones so that governments can take steps to reduce risk. An analysis in May provided a roadmap of such areas.Reporters compared ecological conditions across the globe from 2002 through 2020 with those that existed at the time of past spillovers, identifying 9mn sq km - covering 6% of the Earth’s land mass - where conditions were ripe for pathogens to jump from bats to humans. Nearly 1.8bn people lived in those jump zones in 2020, an increase of 57% since 2002.The analysis focused on bats because they are linked to many of the deadliest disease outbreaks of the past half century, including the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Though its specific source is still unknown, the virus that causes Covid-19 is related to coronaviruses found in some horseshoe bats, a type common in tropical Asia. Kerala is one of the likeliest places on earth for spillover to occur, the analysis showed.Bhupender Yadav, India’s minister of environment and forest, said talks are underway between his agency and state officials over the need to create “ecological protection zones” in areas at high risk of Nipah spillover.Kerala Health Minister Veena George said the state government has created a new Nipah research centre in Kozhikode to investigate why spillover keeps occurring there and how to prevent it. Researchers will look at a wide range of factors, including tree loss, agricultural practices, urbanisation and community awareness - and what government actions are needed to reduce risk.She cited protecting bat-roosting trees and planting native flowering trees - natural food for bats - as examples of what government could do.A federal initiative to identify and protect ecologically sensitive areas in the region, begun more than a decade ago, stalled after encountering protests from landowners and resistance from state and local governments eager to boost their economies.That same conflict is challenging global health leaders today as they work on an accord to govern response to future global health crises. The World Health Organisation’s 194 member states would be required under international law to adhere to the treaty. How they would be held accountable is among the issues still under debate.The latest draft, released by the WHO on October 16, would require countries to conduct risk assessments for spillover as well as to “monitor and mitigate environmental factors associated with the risk of zoonotic disease spillover.” A growing body of research has linked deforestation, urbanisation and intensive farming to spillover.

Down syndrome is a genetic condition that causes a range of developmental challenges in those who have it. Statistics show that one in every 700 babies born today has Down syndrome.Is actually the presence of something MORE that causes the problem?Those with Down syndrome are born with an extra copy of chromosome 21. This is known as Trisomy 21. It means they have a total of 47 chromosomes instead of 46. Therefore, it leads to certain challenges related to the development of the brain and body.It is named after the British Dr John Langdon Down, who fully explained the condition in 1866 and listed all the characteristics related to individuals with the condition.Most importantly we must realise that Down syndrome IS NOT a disease – it’s an accident of nature.How do you know if someone has Down Syndrome?The condition is normally identified by paediatricians soon after the child is born due to some tell-tale features such as low muscle tone, and other physical characteristics.However, the condition has to be confirmed by genetic test that confirms the presence of the extra chromosome which can be done after birth (if not tested earlier).Screening and diagnostic tests carried out when the mother is pregnant can also determine if the child has Down syndrome.What are some of the physical characteristics of a person with Down syndrome?There are individuals with a range of Down syndrome and it is not accurate to say that they all have the same physical characteristics. However, some common features include:Simian Crease in the palm of hands (single straight line)Slanting almond shaped eyesFlatter bridge of noseShort webbed neckSmall ears, generally shorter than others their ageTongue thrustingLower muscle toneSmaller hands and feetModerately lower IQ levelsWho carries the risk of having a baby with Down syndrome?There is no scientific evidence of any confirmed reason why a child is born with Down syndromeSome trends noticed indicate that older parents especially mothers above the age of 35 years, and those in late life pregnancies carry higher risk of having children with special needs including Down syndrome.In some countries, inter-family marriages are common, and a larger number of children with genetic issues and developmental challenges are noticed in such marriages including having children with Down syndrome.What are the health-related challenges faced by people with Down syndrome?Some children with Down syndrome are born with congenital heart diseases including hole in the heart. Thanks to medical advancement, if these are identified early on, they can be successfully treated and rectified.Many children with Down syndrome have eye sight issues and may need to wear corrective lenses. They are also prone to eye infections.Some children with Down syndrome also have hearing issues and get frequent ear infections.Upper respiratory tract infections are also common among children with Down syndrome.Many of them will have issues with Adenoid and Tonsilitis and may require surgery to overcome frequent infections and associated illness.One condition to be mindful about is Obstructive Sleep Apnoea which could prove fatal if not attended to.What are the treatments for Down syndrome?Down syndrome is a ‘condition’ and not a ‘disease’ so there is no treatment.Some parents are misguided and go after alternative cures and promises which are not supported by research, nor approved by recognised bodies. Sadly some people exploit such parents and their fear and ignorance.Intervention focuses on helping the child reach their full potential. This is done through the provision of special education if required, then mainstreaming the child, encouraging higher studies in academic or vocational streams, and providing the appropriate therapeutic interventions such as speech therapy, occupational therapy, behaviour therapy, physical therapy among others.Any treatment provided is aimed at addressing the associated ‘health issues’ and not the ‘condition’ of Down syndrome.What is the general outlook for the future of individuals with Down syndrome?These days, individuals with Down syndrome grow well into old age. Some of them even outlive their parents.Some get married but may not be able to have offspring due to their inability to reproduce. However if they did, there is a high risk of having offspring with Down syndrome.Most children with Down syndrome these days go into mainstream schools as more and more schools around the world accept differently-abled children into mainstream schools.Some of them go on to vocations that suit their interests. Some find full time jobs too.Individuals with Down syndrome are known to have obtained driving licence and drive their own vehicles.There are many extremely talented artists, musicians, sportsmen, models, and actors with Down syndrome.What are some unique life’s learnings we can get from persons with Down syndrome?One habit that we can learn from those with Down syndrome is to smile always in spite of challenges. You will normally find them smiling and laughing at the simplest of things. Life is amusing and there is so much to enjoy. Sadly, today’s world gives us less opportunities to enjoy the smaller joys. Those with Down syndrome teach us how it’s possible to smile amidst any challenges.Don’t take anything too seriously as nothing is permanent. This too shall pass and life will go on.Give it your best shot even if you know you have weaknesses. Those with Down syndrome have so many challenges and weaknesses, but it does not curtail their desire to give it a shot and to do their best while at it.Stick to values and discipline in life – and sometimes be stubborn about it. Many of those with Down syndrome are attached to their patterns and habits, and have strong values and discipline in life. They are reluctant to change any of this, and may seem obstinate and stubborn at times. But they know what they are doing.Love unconditionally without expecting anything in return. In today’s world where most people do something expecting something in return, and where relationships and interactions are based on give and take, you will notice that those with Down syndrome walk around with truckloads of love to give away. And they do not expect anything in return from you. Being around a person with Down syndrome is a therapeutic experience for anyone in this crazy hectic world that we live in.l Dr Rajeev Thomas is Founder and Managing Director of HOPE Qatar Centre for Special Needs & Father of a son with Down syndrome