Opinion

French mountaineer Benjamin Vedrines counted every second as he made history’s fastest-ever ascent of K2, but says he doesn’t add up the growing number of records to his name.“It’s not the records themselves that interest me, it’s also the links that I create with certain mountains and especially in the case of K2,” the 32-year-old told AFP.“It fascinated me from the first moment I saw it.”Vedrines scaled the world’s second-highest mountain — standing at 8,611 metres (28,251 feet) on the border of Pakistan and China — in 10 hours, 59 minutes and 59 seconds on Sunday, July 28th.The ascent slashed by more than half the previous record for climbing K2 without bottled oxygen, completed in 23 hours by fellow Frenchman Benoit Chamoux in 1986.The remarkable feat on the “Savage Mountain” came exactly two years to the day since Vedrines was forced to abort his first attempt as the high altitude starved his brain of oxygen a mere 200 metres from the top.While his record has made headlines worldwide for its speed, for Vedrines it is remarkable for the opposite reason — because it was so long in the making.“I wanted to arrive there really ready, prepared, body, mind,” he said. “I pay attention to doing things well, to building them. These are projects that take time.”Vedrines is considered one of France’s pre-eminent climbers and in 2022 set a speed record climbing Pakistan’s Broad Peak — the world’s 12th highest mountain — before descending by paraglider.Back home in the French Alps he has also broken a host of records.He uses the “alpine style” of climbing which relies on minimal use of cumbersome ropes in favour of moving swiftly up the slopes.But without the aid of oxygen tanks to counteract the thin atmosphere, he faced a paradox on K2 — needing to move quickly, in one of the world’s most unforgiving environments, with minimal effort.“It requires knowing how to go slowly to go fast,” he quips. “It is a little bit of a contradiction that we have to negotiate.”To make matters worse, poor weather on the mountain prevented his attempts to acclimatise.“I had to face a lot of unforeseen events during this expedition,” he said.“I knew how to persevere. I knew how to be determined, patient and above all humble because this K2 mountain requires a lot of humility.”While Nepal’s Mount Everest is around 240 metres taller than K2, the Pakistan peak first scaled in 1954 is regarded as a more challenging ascent.Elite climbers often talk of a special connection to the mountain despite its fatal reputation.Historically around one in four ascent attempts have ended in death.Recent years have seen fewer fatalities, but two Japanese climbers also attempting to scale K2 using the “alpine style” fell the day before Vedrines’ ascent, with their motionless bodies spotted by a helicopter.A rescue was deemed impossible.At times Vedrines was climbing solo, as well as at record speed.“I had to forge a little path in the snow and there was this slightly mystical atmosphere that is specific to K2,” he said.Vedrines left K2’s Advanced Base Camp at 5,350 metres just after midnight, and covered the 3,261 metres to the top before lunchtime the next day.After making his descent, he spoke to AFP a week later, on Sunday, in the resort town of Skardu — the gateway to northern Pakistan which is home to five of the world’s 14 mountains above 8,000 metres.“I feel very grateful that the K2 mountain finally accepted me this year,” said Vedrines.“It was not a form of revenge but a form of reconciliation.” — AFP

A huge industry has emerged in recent years as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have made the safety of artificial intelligence (AI) a top priority. Obviously, any technology – from cars and pharmaceuticals to machine tools and lawnmowers – should be designed as safely as possible (one wishes that more scrutiny had been brought to bear on social media during its early days).But simply raising safety concerns isn’t enough. In the case of AI, the debate is focused far too much on “safety against catastrophic risks due to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence),” meaning a superintelligence that can outperform all humans in most cognitive tasks. At issue is the question of “alignment”: whether AI models produce results that match their users’ and designers’ objectives and values – a topic that leads to various sci-fi scenarios in which a superintelligent AI emerges and destroys humanity.The best-selling author Brian Christian’s The Alignment Problem is focused mostly on AGI, and the same concerns have led Anthropic, one of the main companies in the field, to build models with their own “constitutions” enshrining ethical values and principles.But there are at least two reasons why these approaches may be misguided. First, the current safety debate not only (unhelpfully) anthropomorphises AI; it also leads us to focus on the wrong targets. Since any technology can be used for good or bad, what ultimately matters is who controls it, what their objectives are, and what kind of regulations they are subjected to.No amount of safety research would have prevented a car from being used as a weapon at the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017. If we accept the premise that AI systems have their own personalities, we might conclude that our only option is to ensure that they have the right values and constitutions in the abstract. But the premise is false, and the proposed solution would fall far short.To be sure, the counterargument is that if AGI was ever achieved, it really would matter whether the system was “aligned” with human objectives, because no guardrails would be left to contain the cunning of a superintelligence. But this claim brings us to the second problem with much of the AI safety discussion. Even if we are on the path to AGI (which seems highly unlikely), the most immediate danger would still be misuses of non-superintelligent AI by humans.Suppose that there is some time (T) in the future (say 2040) when AGI will be invented, and that until this time arrives, AI systems that don’t have AGI will still be non-autonomous. (If they were to become self-acting before AGI, let that day be T.) Now consider the situation one year before T. By that point, AI systems will have become highly capable (by dint of being on the cusp of superintelligence), and the question that we would want to ask is: Who is in control right now?The answer would of course be human agents, either individually or collectively in the form of a government, a consortium, or a corporation. To simplify the discussion, let me refer to the human agents in charge of AI at this point as Corporation X. This company (it could also be more than one company, which might be even worse, as we will see) would be able to use its AI capabilities for any purpose it wants. If it wanted to destroy democracy and enslave people, it could do so. The threat that so many commentators impute to AGI would already have arrived before AGI.In fact, the situation would probably be worse than this description, because Corporation X could bring about a similar outcome even if its intention was not to destroy democracy. If its own objectives were not fully aligned with democracy (which is inevitable), democracy could suffer as an unintended consequence (as has been the case with social media).For example, inequality exceeding some threshold may jeopardize the proper functioning of democracy; but that fact would not stop Corporation X from doing everything it could to enrich itself or its shareholders. Any guardrails built into its AI models to prevent malicious use would not matter, because Corporation X could still use its technology however it wants.Likewise, if there were two companies, Corporation X and Corporation Y, that controlled highly capable AI models, either one of them, or both, could still pursue aims that are damaging to social cohesion, democracy, and human freedom. (And no, the argument that they would constrain each other is not convincing. If anything, their competition could make them even more ruthless.)Thus, even if we get what most AI safety researchers want – proper alignment and constraints on AGI – we will not be safe. The implications of this conclusion should be obvious: We need much stronger institutions for reining in the tech companies, and much stronger forms of democratic and civic action to keep governments that control AI accountable. This challenge is quite separate and distinct from addressing biases in AI models or their alignment with human objectives.Why, then, are we so fixated on the potential behaviour of anthropomorphised AI? Some of it is hype, which helps the tech industry attract more talent and investment. The more that everyone is talking about how a superintelligent AI might act, the more the public will start to think that AGI is imminent. Retail and institutional investors will pour into the next big thing, and tech executives who grew up on sci-fi depictions of superintelligent AI will get another free pass. We should start paying more attention to the more immediate risks. — Project SyndicatePOINTS TO PONDERMisguided focus on AGI safety: The current AI safety debate is overly focused on the risks of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), neglecting the immediate dangers posed by non-superintelligent AI misuses by humans.Control and regulation: The ultimate risk lies in who controls AI technology, their objectives, and the regulations governing them, rather than the intrinsic safety of the AI itself.Need for stronger institutions: Stronger institutions and democratic actions are needed to regulate tech companies and s controlling AI, addressing the immediate risks rather than hypothetical future AGI threats.Daron Acemoglu, Institute Professor of Economics at MIT, is co-author (with Simon Johnson) of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity.

Sheikh Hasina, who resigned as Bangladesh’s prime minister and fled the country on Monday following weeks of protests, has been one of the dominant figures in its politics since the assassination of her father, independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, nearly a half-century ago.Her flight came less than seven months after she celebrated a fourth straight term in power — and fifth overall — by sweeping a national election in January that was boycotted by the main opposition.The 76-year-old was flown in a military helicopter on Monday with her sister to take refuge in India, media reports said.Her last 15 years in power were marked by arrests of opposition leaders, crackdowns on free speech and suppression of dissent, and she resigned in the face of deadly student-led protests that have killed hundreds.Protests began in June after student groups’ demands for the scrapping of a controversial quota system in government jobs escalated into a movement seeking the end of her rule.Her political career was rooted in bloodshed.Her father, who led Bangladesh’s fight for independence from Pakistan in 1971, was assassinated with most her family in a military coup in 1975. She was fortunate to have been visiting Europe at the time.Born in 1947, in southwestern Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, Hasina was the eldest of five children. She graduated in Bengali Literature from Dhaka University in 1973 and gained political experience as a go-between for her father and his student followers.She returned to Bangladesh from India, where she lived in exile, in 1981 and was elected head of the Awami League.Hasina later joined hands with political foe Khaleda Zia, chief of the rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), to lead a popular uprising for democracy that toppled military ruler Hossain Mohamed Ershad from power in 1990.But the alliance with Zia did not last long and the bitter rivalry between the two women — often called the “battling begums” — went on to dominate Bangladeshi politics for decades.Hasina first led the Awami League party to victory in 1996, serving one five-year term before regaining power in 2009, never to lose it again.As time went on, she became increasingly autocratic and her rule has been marked by mass arrests of political opponents and activists, forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.Rights groups warned of a virtual one-party rule by the Awami League.Zia, herself a former prime minister and the widow of Ziaur Rahman, a former president of Bangladesh who was assassinated in 1981, was jailed in 2018 on graft charges that the opposition says have been trumped up. She was barred from political activity.BNP and rights groups say Hasina’s government arrested 10,000 opposition party workers on trumped up charges in the lead-up to the January election, which the opposition boycotted.Hasina refused BNP demands to resign and allow a neutral authority to run the election.Both she and her rivals accused each other of trying to create chaos and violence to jeopardise the democracy that has yet to take firm root in the country of 170mn people.Despite criticism of her years in power, Hasina was credited with turning around the economy and the massive garments industry, while winning international praise for sheltering Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in neighbouring Myanmar.But the economy has also slowed sharply since the Russia-Ukraine war pushed up prices of fuel and food imports, forcing Bangladesh to turn last year to the International Monetary Fund for a $4.7bn bailout.

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Kamala Harris can win the US presidency. Yes, Donald Trump is a formidable candidate, whose campaign was bolstered by his defiant reaction to the July 13 attempt on his life. But Harris has emerged as the Democratic nominee with stunning speed following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal; within a matter of days, she clinched the support of more delegates than needed to secure the nomination at this month’s party convention in Chicago.Minutes after Biden stepped aside, Harris was making calls and corralling backers. Biden’s campaign apparatus got behind its new candidate without a hitch. Within 48 hours, Harris had raised $100mn and had effective access to the war chest that Biden had already amassed. An overwhelming 70% of Democrats were in favour of rallying behind Harris rather than holding an open competition. Polls show Harris and Trump in a virtual tie, making clear that Harris has quickly closed the widening lead that Trump had built over Biden.This surge in support for Harris stems in part from relief among Democrats that they now have a fighting chance, but it also reflects widespread enthusiasm about her appeal, record, and qualifications. With an Indian mother, a Jamaican father, and a Jewish husband, Harris’s multicultural credentials will help her rally enthusiasm among younger, more progressive voters and non-whites – groups Biden struggled to reach. She engages intently on domestic issues that are high priorities for these cohorts, including racial and gender equity, reproductive rights, immigration, and climate change.Harris’s position on the Gaza war also appeals to progressives. In March, she called for “an immediate ceasefire” and told Binyamin Netanyahu last month that she “will not be silent” on Palestinian suffering.Trump has labelled Harris a “radical left person”, but she is in fact a pragmatic centrist. During her bid for the 2020 presidential nomination, Harris did veer toward the progressive camp on some issues – particularly climate change. But throughout her career she has generally aligned with her party’s moderates.As a prosecutor in California, she faced criticism from the left for being too tough on crime. As a US senator and now as vice president, her views on most issues have been broadly in line with the centrist policies pursued by Biden. On the economic front, those policies have contributed to a robust post-pandemic recovery.According to Trump, Harris is responsible for the influx of migrants across the southern border while she served as vice president. Biden’s administration admittedly struggled to reduce illegal immigration. But Harris was not the “border czar” that Republicans make her out to be. Her main role was to lead the administration’s effort to tackle the root causes of migrant flows by fighting corruption and improving economic opportunity in the so-called Northern Triangle of Central America – El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.Such efforts take years to pay off. In the meantime, Harris has been delivering a tough message. “Do not come,” she warned Guatemalans in 2021, adding, “If you come to our border, you will be turned back.”After Republicans – at Trump’s prompting – sank an ambitious, bipartisan immigration reform bill in June, Biden issued an executive order to clamp down on illegal border crossings. Help from Mexican authorities, as well as the introduction of an app that allows asylum seekers in Mexico to schedule an appointment at a US port of entry, has helped stem the flow. These policies – hardly the work of radical leftists – have reduced unauthorised border crossings to a lower level than when Trump’s first presidential term ended in 2021.Harris’s pragmatic centrism should broaden her appeal among moderates in the swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that will likely determine the result in November. Trump was already having difficulty garnering support among independents and moderate Republicans, and he only made it harder for himself by picking US Senator J D Vance as his running mate.By choosing Vance, Trump doubled down on energising his base – whites without a college education, who represent just over 40% of the electorate. But Trump cannot win just by rallying this sizeable base, which is why he may come to regret choosing a running mate who fails to broaden the electoral appeal of the Republican ticket. Furthermore, Ohio is already a reliably Republican state, so picking an Ohioan does little to boost Trump’s prospects.By locating herself in the political centre, Harris has a crucial opportunity to win over moderate swing-state voters. To that end, she is likely to choose as her running mate a prominent swing-state politician. Moreover, Harris should be able to gain traction among moderate women voters in suburban communities, many of whom have trouble tolerating Republican positions on women’s reproductive rights as well as Trump’s sordid past, crude rhetoric, and chronic legal problems.Harris has the experience needed to prevail. Her background as a prosecutor should serve her well when she debates a convicted felon who sought to overturn the 2020 election without a shred of supporting evidence. And whereas most recent presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump entered office without any meaningful experience in US foreign policy, Harris has spent almost four years benefiting from the mentorship of Biden, one of America’s most seasoned statesmen.Harris has met over 100 world leaders and travelled to virtually every corner of the globe. She has been at the forefront of efforts to address emerging challenges, including artificial-intelligence safety and US strategy toward both commercial and national-security activities in outer space. Serving as vice-president also gave her the opportunity to master the policymaking process, a notable asset in view of the chaos that characterised Trump’s White House.Now that she is in the spotlight, Harris is effectively re-introducing herself to many Americans. Her recent public appearances have the more natural feel that she needs to make an authentic connection to the electorate and build on the excitement and momentum that have so quickly materialised.Harris and Trump are in a dead heat, and the stakes could not be higher. Biden made that clear in his Oval Office address on July 24: “Whether we keep our republic is now in your hands.” Harris is the right person at the right time to achieve that goal. — Project Syndicatel Charles A Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served on the National Security Council under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

With the world fixated on the latest artificial intelligence (AI) updates and new data centres springing up as quickly as companies can build them, there is a huge demand for power to run and cool the servers inside. Now concerns are mounting about whether the US (a global hub for data centres) can generate enough electricity for the widespread adoption of AI, and whether its ageing grid will be able to handle the load.There are more than 8,000 data centres globally, with the highest concentration in the US, and courtesy AI, there will be far more by the end of the decade. Boston Consulting Group estimates demand for data centres will rise 15-20% annually through 2030, when they’re expected to comprise 16% of total US. power consumption. That’s up from just 2.5% before OpenAI’s ChatGPT was released in 2022, and it’s equivalent to the power used by about two-thirds of the total homes in the US.“If we don’t start thinking about this power problem differently now, we’re never going to see this dream we have,” said Dipti Vachani, head of automotive at Arm. The chip company’s low-power processors have become increasingly popular with hyperscalers like Google , Microsoft , Oracle and Amazon — as they can reduce power use by up to 15% in data centres. Nvidia’s latest AI chip, Grace Blackwell, incorporates Arm-based CPUs it says can run generative AI models on 25 times less power than the previous generation.One ChatGPT query uses nearly 10 times as much energy as a typical Google search, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Generating an AI image can use as much power as charging a smartphone. This problem isn’t new. Estimates in 2019 found training one large language model produced as much CO2 as the entire lifetime of five gas-powered cars.The hyperscalers building data centres to accommodate this massive power draw are also seeing emissions soar. Google’s latest environmental report showed greenhouse gas emissions rose nearly 50% from 2019-2023 in part because of data centre energy consumption, although it also said its data centres are 1.8 times as energy efficient as a typical data centre. Microsoft’s emissions rose nearly 30% from 2020-2024, also due in part to data centres. In Kansas City, where Meta is building an AI-focused data centre, power needs are so high that plans to close a coal-fired power plant are being put on hold.“The industry itself is looking for places where there is either proximate access to renewables, either wind or solar, and other infrastructure that can be leveraged, whether it be part of an incentive programme to convert what would have been a coal-fired plant into natural gas, or increasingly looking at ways in which to offtake power from nuclear facilities,” said Jeff Tench, Silicon Valley-based Vantage Data Centre’s executive vice-president of North America and APAC.OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been vocal about this need. He recently invested in a solar startup that makes shipping-container-sized modules that have panels and power storage. Altman has also invested in nuclear fission startup Oklo which aims to make mini nuclear reactors housed in A-frame structures, and in the nuclear fusion startup Helion. Microsoft signed a deal with Helion last year to start buying its fusion electricity in 2028. Google partnered with a geothermal startup that says its next plant will harness enough power from underground to run a large data centre. Vantage recently built a 100-megawatt natural gas plant that powers one of its data centres in Virginia, keeping it entirely off the grid.Yet another challenge is that generative AI data centres will also require 4.2-6.6bn cubic metres of water withdrawal by 2027 to stay cool, according to a research. That’s more than the total annual water withdrawal of half of the UK. So, in short, AI is an energy and water guzzler and that does not augur well for the environment in the long run unless remedial measures are deployed at the earliest.

Kamala Harris is preparing for the fight of her life, if her inner circle is anything to go by.The vice-president has surrounded herself with a group of tested operators, many of them Black women who have been involved in Democratic politics for decades, as she gears up for a brutal three months of campaigning before the November 5 election.US Senator Laphonza Butler of California, for one, struck a bullish tone this week when asked on MSNBC about the prospect of Harris facing a barrage of sexist and racist attacks.“Bring it,” she said. “Because we are not new to this.”The tight-knit group of advisers are fiercely loyal to Harris and passionate about her career, with many having shepherded her since she was a newcomer to Washington when she joined the Senate in 2017, according to Reuters interviews with four people with direct knowledge of her closest confidants.Some of the group privately lobbied Joe Biden to pick a Black woman — Harris in particular — as his running mate in 2020 at a time when he had only publicly committed to naming a woman, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss the matter.Harris’ inner circle include advisers and allies such as Minyon Moore, chair of the Democratic National Convention Committee, convention rules co-chair Leah Daughtry, Democratic National Committee (DNC) member Donna Brazile and Tina Flournoy, a former chief of staff to Harris, the people said.They are no strangers to power, with many having served in Bill Clinton’s 1993-2001 presidency.Harris, an 11th-hour substitute at the top of the ticket after Biden dropped out, may need all the help she can get, even though her campaign has made a strong start.Harris remains untested, politically, on the national stage, despite being a former senator from the most populous US state of California. She dropped out of the 2020 Democratic primary early and she trails Republican rival Donald Trump in some battleground states in this year’s race, according to opinion polls.There are signs of a break from the past for Harris in one area. So far this year, some members of her family — long among her closest advisers — have played a less prominent role than in her 2020 run.Younger sister Maya Harris, who ran that short-lived campaign, has been mostly absent during key moments this time round, three of the people familiar with Harris’ campaign said.The advisers and family members included in this article either declined comment or didn’t respond to requests for comment. The Harris campaign didn’t comment.The 59-year-old vice president faces a tight race and needs to be prepared for a wave of attacks, Democratic strategist Anthony Coley said.Trump has called Harris “crazy”, “nuts”, “dumb as a rock” and questioned her identity by suggesting she had previously downplayed her Black heritage. Some Republicans in Congress disparage her as a diversity hire. Right-wing activists and trolls have smeared her online with racist and sexist barbs.The inner circle is “battle tested in a way that is going to be helpful over the next 99 days,” Coley said.“It’s going to be fast, it’s going to be furious, it’s going to be deep. And you have to have people who know how to respond quickly and smartly to these types of attacks.”The Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment for this article.‘Force of nature, force for good’Women with years of experience running the White House and election campaigning also hold key organisational roles inside the Harris camp.Lorraine Voles serves as her White House chief of staff; Erin Wilson is her deputy chief of staff; Sheila Nix is her chief of staff on the campaign; Kirsten Allen serves as her White House communications director; and Rohini Kosoglu is one of her closest advisers, who has worked for her since her time in the Senate.Voles, a veteran Washington communications fixer and adviser, has been credited by analysts for being a stabilising force within Harris’ inner circle since May 2022, after turmoil in her office that included departures in her communications, national security and other teams.“Lorraine is a force of nature and a force for good who looks around corners and plays to win,” said Chris LeHane, who worked with Voles at the Clinton White House.A deputy press secretary for Bill Clinton, Voles was subsequently communications director for then-Vice President Al Gore and for then-Senator Hillary Clinton.Some of the top male staffers she relies on are Brian Fallon, a former senior aide to Hillary Clinton who runs her communications at the campaign; Ike Irby, who served as her deputy domestic policy adviser at the White House until earlier this year; and Dean Lieberman, a national security adviser, who earlier worked for the White House National Security Council.Democratic strategist Joel Payne said the people around Harris had experience building coalitions, including the group of voters that coalesced around the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020 and those who supported Obama in 2008 and 2012.“These are folks who have that lineage...to those previous eras of Democratic politics and an understanding of how to rebuild those coalitions from the past,” he added.Ties to Washington power brokersThe counsel of figures like Moore, Daughtry, Brazile and Flournoy lend Harris years of experience from the Clinton White House and the DNC and the political chops to navigate a party that did not fully embrace her in the early years she was vice-president.These women also bring deep knowledge of Washington and ties to its power brokers. They give Harris an advantage over Trump, according to Marcia Fudge, a co-chair of the Harris campaign and former housing secretary in Biden’s administration.“It brings her a level of experience that his people don’t have,” Fudge told Reuters.Trump’s campaign is built around a handful of loyal, little-known political advisers, who helped him sweep away multiple Republican challengers in the primaries.Another sounding board for Harris is Senator Butler, a union organiser who has known Harris since she was San Francisco district attorney in the early 2000s and served as a senior adviser to her 2020 campaign. With her union ties, Butler offers a bridge to the labour community, an important Democratic constituency for Harris.This week, the United Auto Workers union endorsed Harris for president, providing a potential boost for her in the swing state of Michigan.Matt Bennett, co-founder of Third Way, a political strategy group, said this team would help Harris portray herself as politically in the centre, while also appealing to left-leaning voters.“They understand how to position her as a moderate.”Harris husband: ‘Professional wife guy’Although family members are playing a less prominent role in this campaign, they are strong supporters.Harris’ brother-in-law — Maya’s husband — Tony West, chief legal officer at Uber and former associate attorney general in the Obama administration, has been by the vic-president’s side during key moments on the trail this year.He joined her on trips while Biden’s own presidential bid was collapsing and then again at the Harris campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, where Harris addressed campaign leaders and staffers for the first time as the presidential candidate.“He’s a thought partner, no formal role,” said one of the people with knowledge of the campaign.Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, remains cheerleader-in-chief.The 59-year-old former lawyer has hit the campaign trail hard, visiting abortion clinic in Maine, stumping in New Hampshire and channelling what Vanity Fair calls “professional Wife Guy” — the supportive husband. — Reuters

The largest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West in decades could help US President Joe Biden burnish his foreign policy legacy in his waning months in office and boost Vice-President Kamala Harris in her bid for the White House.But, from the perspective of Washington, it came at a significant cost: the freeing of Russians convicted of serious crimes in exchange for Americans the US deems unjustly detained, a trade-off some experts say could encourage hostage-taking by US foes. That concern quickly exposed Biden to attacks from Republican opponents.Though Biden’s record on the world stage is likely to be heavily defined by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the complicated, multi-country prisoner swap with Moscow on Thursday provided a much-needed foreign policy accomplishment amid heightened global tensions.It was all the more difficult to reach a landmark deal against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, in which the US is arming Kyiv against a Russian invasion, sending relations between Moscow and Washington to the lowest point since the Cold War.The prisoner swap goes a long way, however, toward addressing what Biden’s aides have long identified as a key priority on his foreign policy agenda, especially after he ended his re-election bid and endorsed Harris for the Democratic nomination.“It is an achievement. Smart diplomacy produced it,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East adviser in Republican and Democratic administrations. “Getting back Americans seized and held unjustly is part of the responsibility any government has.”Biden on Thursday hailed the prisoner swap, including the release of *Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and ex-Marine Paul Whelan, as a “feat of diplomacy,” and by extension it could give Harris a positive note to sound on the campaign trail against Republican nominee Donald Trump.But experts say Biden will have to fend off Republican criticism of the deal and, in a broader sense, will still have plenty of work to do to polish his foreign policy record for the history books.Biden foreign policy: a mixed bagOn the plus side, Biden is widely credited with repairing alliances with Nato and key Asian partners such as Japan and South Korea following Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency, during which he cast doubt on the value of those ties.As a result, some of America’s friends are now nervous about the prospects of Trump reclaiming the White House in the November election. Biden also faces a range of international crises that erupted on his watch.Ukraine’s fight against Russia remains unresolved. Israel’s war against Hamas militants in Gaza rages on amid growing fears of a broader regional war.China continues to pose a threat to self-ruled Taiwan and a challenge to US interests in the Indo-Pacific. After an election on Sunday that the Biden administration had pushed for, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has claimed victory despite exit polls that showed an overwhelming opposition win.And still overshadowing Biden’s record from his first year in office is the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s re-establishment of control.Republicans have seized on a campaign message of a globe engulfed in chaos on Biden’s watch — what some of them have called a “world on fire” — and are trying to paint Harris with the same brush.Biden’s allies contend that every US leader has had to confront his own set of challenges on the world stage, most not of his making, and that the president has handled them skillfully.Germany’s critical roleTwo weeks ago, the Biden administration got formal word that Russia was ready to accept the deal, aides said.It was happening even as Biden’s own political career was falling apart, with the president working the phones on the issue just hours before he released a letter to the public that he would no longer seek re-election.The prisoner swap finally came together after more than a year of painstaking negotiations. It also involves Germany and other European allies, with 24 prisoners changing hands, including the return of four to the US and eight being sent to Russia.Crucial to the deal was Germany agreeing to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main demand for the release of Vadim Krasikov, who was convicted for the murder of a former Chechen militant.Jeff Rathke, a former US diplomat and president of the American-German Institute at the Johns Hopkins University, said the exchange reflected much-improved relations between Germany and the United States under Biden compared to Trump.The German government consented, he said, “because the United States and Germany had a level of confidence, trust and mutual interest that allowed something difficult in the German justice system to occur and could cause criticism at home.”However, there is no sign that Putin is looking to repair ties with Washington, and Biden administration officials said the deal appeared to be a one-time exchange.Republicans wasted little time in accusing Biden of paying too high a price, as they did in response to the 2022 swap of US basketball star Brittney Griner for convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.“I remain concerned that continuing to trade innocent Americans for actual Russian criminals held in the US and elsewhere sends a dangerous message to Putin that only encourages further hostage taking by his regime,” Michael McCaul, chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement.Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration, said that while the exchange was a significant short-term achievement, several similar deals reached during Biden’s term had “upended decades of practice that dictates that you don’t negotiate with tyrants for the release of Americans.”Griner’s return was followed last September by the swap of five detainees each between the US and Iran. That included the transfer by the US of $6bn of Tehran’s frozen funds to a bank account earmarked for humanitarian purposes, which Republicans said was essentially paying “ransom.”And in December, Venezuela released 10 Americans in exchange for the US release of a jailed Maduro ally.Administration officials have defended such deals as painful but unavoidable when all other means have failed.“While it is or would be great to have these individuals released, it underscores how hostage-taking has become a prominent and frequent — if not growing — element of Russian strategy toward the US and the West,” said Ian Brzezinski, a former US defence official.Why now?It was unclear why Putin decided to work out a big prisoner swap with Biden instead of holding off for the possibility that Trump — who has shown himself more amenable to Moscow’s interests — might be back in the White House in January.But Putin may have calculated that it was better to do business with Biden instead of waiting for the next administration and possibly having to start from scratch.US officials believe it was a one-off deal because of Germany’s willingness to participate and there was no guarantee such an offer would still be on the table under the next president.Trump had repeatedly insisted that, if elected, he could easily get Gershkovich released, writing in May that Putin “will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”Dozens of US nationals are still what Washington terms “wrongfully detained” or held hostage by foreign governments, including some in Russia and others in China and Iran, or with non-state actors such as the Palestinian group Hamas.While Biden promised to continue seeking their release until he leaves office on January 20, it is likely the task will be inherited by the next president. — Reuters

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Qatar’s efforts at reducing its public debt will get further boost with the country’s budget generating another surplus of QR2.6bn in the second quarter (Q2), according to the Ministry of Finance.In the first quarter (Q1), the budget had recorded a surplus of QR2bn.The second quarter of this year saw total budget revenues at QR59.9bn and total expenditure of QR57.3bn, generating a surplus of QR2.6bn.During Q2, oil price averaged $85 per barrel, the Ministry of Finance said.While presenting the budget early this year, the Ministry of Finance made an oil price assumption of $60 per barrel in 2024.“The surplus will be directed to reduce public debt and therefore there is no cash surplus,” the Ministry noted.Earlier, the state budget had estimated a total annual revenue of QR202bn and spending at QR200.9bn for this year.Although the budget for 2024 sees a small surplus preliminarily, given Qatar’s commitment to pay the equivalent of approximately QR7.3bn of public debt dues next year, the Ministry of Finance has then estimated a deficit of about QR6.2bn.In the budget, Qatar has taken a more conservative approach, with an oil price assumption of $60 per barrel in 2024, instead of $65 per barrel in 2023, by taking into account the estimates of international institutions.The country’s public debt is estimated to fall consistently from this year to 2028, researcher FocusEconomics said in an earlier report.FocusEconomics estimates public debt (as a percentage of GDP) at 39.7 this year, 37.1 (2025), 36.3 (2026), 33.7 (2027) and 32.7 (2028).Qatar’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated at 4.8 this year, 4.2 (2025), 5.4 (2026), 5.9 (2027) and 6.5 (2028).The country’s current account balance (in dollar terms) has been estimated at $35.6bn this year, $35.9bn (2025), $37.7bn (2026), $43.9bn (2027) and $41bn (2028).Current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated at 15.3 this year, 14.8 (2025), 14.2 (2026), 15.2 (2027) and 13.4 (2028).Unemployment (as a percentage of active population will remain at a meagre 0.2 this year and in 2025 and 0.1 until 2028.Qatar’s gross domestic product is set to exceed $300bn by 2028, researcher said as it estimates the country’s GDP this year at $232bn.Meanwhile, the country’s general budget for 2024 continues to focus on achieving the goals of the QNV 2030 related to the development of human capital by focusing on the health and education sectors.The outlay for the two key sectors constitutes 20% of the total budget.This underscores Qatar’s commitment to the development of its nationals, recognising that the development of human capital is vital for the progress of all other sectors, be it economic or social.The allocation for the communications and information technology sector has seen a 200% increase in the next year’s budget compared to 2023.The doubling of outlay for the ICT sector compared to last year’s budget, reaffirms Qatar’s commitment to fostering a knowledge-based and innovative economy while promoting investments in these pivotal sectors.

On Sunday, July 21, the world had its hottest day on record. Just 24 hours later, that record broke again making last Monday very likely the hottest day in thousands of years.It may seem improbable for scientists to gauge the world’s hottest day given that they don’t have temperature monitors in every corner of the world and less than a century of relatively widespread observations. But they’ve developed a technique that’s increasingly useful as the planet heats up.Last month’s shocking heat findings, announced by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, are based on “reanalysis,” a technique that mixes temperature data and models to provide a global view of the climate. The centre creates a nearly real-time picture of the Earth’s climate, including temperature, wind and precipitation, for (roughly) every 30-square-kilometre chunk of the planet’s surface.This reanalysis goes back to 1940, and it allows researchers to say with confidence when a record is broken, whether for a day, month or year. Beyond the new daily heat record, the data also shows that 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded and that every calendar month for the past 13 months has been the hottest on record.Though there aren’t thermometers in every corner of the world, Copernicus receives a large amount of weather data that it uses to underpin its reanalysis. “We have this constant flow of information coming into the centre,” says Carlo Buontempo, director of the Climate Change Service, which is part of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).Scientists at the centre receive 100mn readings per day about weather conditions from around the world. Observations come from airplanes, satellites, ships, radar and surface-level weather stations — all feeding real-time information about temperature, wind, rain and snow information, as well as other factors like air pollution. This information is fed into a model, known as ERA5, which is already equipped with historic information about the global climate.There are gaps in these observations, because the data sources don’t cover every part of the world. Weather conditions like cloudy skies may also reduce the amount of data coming from sources like satellites. To fill these gaps, the scientists take the predictions they have already made, based on the long-term ERA5 model, and test them against the observations. That means a forecast that predicts a particular temperature in a particular place will be tested against all the data researchers receive about the weather in that place and nearby, as well as broader forces like ocean currents and air circulation.This is done repeatedly while assessing how compatible the prediction is with what’s actually been recorded. The model also accounts for any errors in the recorded data, and relies on the laws of physics, including the weather patterns, currents and airflow that govern how the global climate works.In this way, it’s possible to create a complete picture that is as accurate as possible. That’s what allows scientists to confidently declare record like when the world experiences the hottest day in human history.Globally, five weather services — the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and N, the ECMWF, the China Meteorological Administration, and the Japan Meteorological Agency — carry out continuous appraisals of global temperature using this technique. While their models differ slightly, the five groups have come to similar conclusions about record heat in recent months and years.Historical data is trickier to come by. The longest-running temperature series, the Central England Temperature in the UK, started in the 17th century. Data from before humans were systematically monitoring temperatures comes from sources like bubbles of gas trapped in glacial ice, or tree rings. These sources aren’t as specific as a thermometer reading, but it’s possible to say with confidence that recent temperatures are likely the highest in around 100,000 years, Copernicus says.Meteorologists also have a good idea when a particularly significant day, like the hottest day on record, is on its way. This is partly because global mean temperatures usually peak between early July and early August. Last year’s hottest day — which was the previous record for the hottest ever — occurred in early July amid a historic oceanic heat wave. An intensifying El Niño — a natural global climate phenomenon that usually means hotter temperatures globally — provided yet another clue that record heat was brewing.Until this July, it looked for a while like the world wouldn’t set a new daily record, says Buontempo. “The global mean temperature for the oceans started rising again,” he says. “Some of the people who systematically monitor our predictions started to sound alarm bells.” By the start of last week, they were paying extra attention to the reanalysis and getting ready to make an announcement.This technique isn’t just useful for making “hottest day ever” announcements: It’s being used to train AI forecasting models, especially for “ensemble” weather forecasts, which represent multiple possible future scenarios. It’s also used by solar energy companies to help homeowners work out how much energy their panels might generate, and by wind energy companies to plan where to put wind farms.Copernicus is currently working on a new model, known as ERA6, which will be more precise — dividing the world into 14 kilometre squares — and incorporate many more historic data sources, including early satellite readings from the 1970s.For Buontempo, more important than any one day is the recent extraordinary streak of record-breaking months, given that’s a better indicator of how rapidly the world is warming. But pinpointing a specific day does make a changing climate feel much more immediate.“I think we have to make it more tangible, more direct, more visible,” he says. “It is important that people are informed.”

China’s efforts to boost household spending are expected to help the economy hit the government’s 2024 growth target of roughly 5%, but the authorities may have to do more for consumers from next year or accept slower growth.Trade tensions and local government debt risks leave Beijing few alternatives to revving up consumer stimulus in coming years, but vague promises of “incremental measures” look likely to fall short, analysts say.China’s leaders signalled this week that fiscal support for the rest of the year will “focus on consumption”, aiming to boost incomes and social welfare, days after announcing plans to use 150bn yuan ($20bn) in government debt to finance trade-ins on consumer goods such as appliances.This marks a departure toward boosting chronically weak domestic demand after decades of reliance on exports and infrastructure spending that helped vault China to the world’s second-biggest economy.Still, the trade-in programme, China’s first debt-funded step to directly support household consumption nationwide, amounts to just 0.12% of gross domestic product. Further consumption stimulus is “plausible next year in the face of potentially stronger external headwinds”, Citi analysts said.The fridges-not-bridges shift is driven by growing unease with China’s trade dominance, which has pushed the US, Europe and emerging economies from Turkiye to Indonesia to raise tariffs and place other barriers on Chinese products.In addition, the authorities are growing wary of debt-funded projects as they increase scrutiny on heavily indebted municipalities. Most of China’s fiscal stimulus still goes into investment, but returns are dwindling and the spending has saddled local governments with $13tn in debt.Local governments sold 1.49tn yuan ($200bn) of the special bonds used to fund stimulus in the first half of the year, just 38% of the full-year quota, making China’s fiscal stance unexpectedly tight.“The number of really good projects that produce stable income keeps getting smaller,” an economic adviser to the government said on condition of anonymity.China’s export outlook is likely to keep worsening, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House, as the US former president and Republican candidate for November’s election has threatened tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese goods.Yue Su, principal China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, estimates that a 10% increase in US import tariffs could cut China’s real economic growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points next year and in 2026.“The urgency to stimulate the domestic economy is highlighted by increased external pressures, including the potential return of Trump,” she said. “A more decisive domestic-focused policy and fiscal expansion could mitigate some of these effects.”China’s household spending is less than 40% of GDP, some 20 percentage points below the global average.To revive consumption just to its pre-pandemic trendline would require 3tn yuan to 8tn yuan ($400bn-$1tn) in spending, said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics estimates, who thinks that much stimulus is unlikely.“The government’s track record of delivering on consumer stimulus is frankly pretty poor,” he said.Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy commission at the state-backed China Association of Policy Science, said boosting demand sufficiently might need re-allocating 5tn yuan from investment projects to consumers.“In the short run, 5tn yuan in stimulus would be forceful,” Xu said. “But in the long run, we need to improve the proportion of income of urban and rural residents by 20 percentage points of national income.”

Earlier last month, Hurricane Beryl swept through the Caribbean, flattening entire islands and causing “Armageddon-like” destruction. As the earliest Category 5 Atlantic storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean, it marks the beginning of what is forecast to be the most active hurricane season on record.This is undoubtedly a climate disaster. The torrential rainfall and 150-mile-per-hour winds that flattened the islands of Carriacou, Petit Martinique, and the Grenadines archipelago, along with the storm surge that hammered the coasts of Barbados and Jamaica, were up to 10-30% more intense due to human-driven climate change.Hurricane Beryl’s aftermath should concern financial institutions as much as it does climate scientists, because it reveals how our patchwork development-finance system – designed when extreme weather events were far less catastrophic – is falling short in the face of increasingly frequent and intense storms, floods, and wildfires.Studies have shown that no matter how rapidly we reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, disasters like Beryl will recur. But small island developing states (SIDS), which are among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, currently have access to less than 2% of the climate financing pledged to developing countries.To protect Caribbean countries and other vulnerable regions from the existential risks posed by climate change, the international community must help them build resilience. This requires a more comprehensive approach to delivering financial support before, during, and after extreme weather events.The most important priority is emergency liquidity in the aftermath of a crisis, so that governments can meet their populations’ most urgent needs and begin disaster-response work. Examples include the World Bank’s loans with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO), similar to the Inter-American Development Bank’s (IDB) Contingent Loan for Natural Disaster Emergencies. Because such credit lines are approved in advance, countries can access funds quickly once certain predefined conditions are met.The Cat DDO fund was vital to St Vincent and the Grenadines’ response to the 2021 volcanic eruption, providing the country with $20mn in immediate liquidity to support its recovery. Regrettably, this fund expired last year, leaving St Vincent and the Grenadines without similar financing in the wake of Hurricane Beryl, which destroyed 90% of homes on one of its islands.More broadly, accessibility is a major obstacle to protecting SIDS. Most Eastern Caribbean countries are not members of the IDB and therefore cannot access its loans, underscoring the need for a universal contingent liquidity fund that every climate-vulnerable country can access immediately.This fund could be capped at a relatively modest amount to ensure that all countries can respond to their most pressing emergencies. Importantly, the contingent loan would be triggered by a national or sub-national government’s declaration of emergency.Additional “top-up” options like the Cat DDO, or even higher-level coverage through a combination of public support and private solutions – such as debt-payment deferrals, contracts with reinsurers, or parametric risk-transfer solutions– would still be available. But with a universal “base-level” facility, no country would be unable to access emergency liquidity and reconstruction funds. This is why SIDS have unanimously called for the creation of the appropriate financial instruments.But preparedness can go only so far, and emergency liquidity is ultimately a very small piece of the puzzle. To reduce storm damage and prevent hard-won socioeconomic gains made over decades from being reversed overnight, climate-vulnerable countries must build resilience. For example, Barbados’s recently completed investment plan for prosperity and resilience identifies a need to allocate $11.6bn to healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure – including significant coastal protection – over the coming decade, of which about $5bn will need to be funded through the public sector. Achieving this goal requires cheaper, long-term financing options.A much larger share of concessional resources from the multilateral development banks and bilateral donors must be directed toward adaptation, as every dollar spent on making infrastructure more resilient saves $4 in disaster reconstruction. When combined with pre-approved liquidity instruments, like the contingency facility, such investments improve the capacity plan, rather than improvise, humanitarian responses after a storm.Finally, we must allocate more capital to repairing the damage that climate disasters inflict on economies and populations. Like many Caribbean countries reeling from Hurricane Beryl, SIDS are about 33% more vulnerable to external economic and financial shocks than other developing countries. Every year, they suffer $1.7bn in economic losses attributable to climate change and extreme weather events.In 2022, at the UN Climate Change Conference in Egypt, political leaders reached a landmark agreement to establish a Loss and Damage Fund to provide financial aid to developing countries grappling with the adverse effects of global warming. Since then, with the climate crisis escalating rapidly, the number of countries seeking access to these resources has grown significantly.Providing the Loss and Damage fund with the resources it needs is crucial to helping these countries rebuild their economies. In 2017, Dominica, where I was born, Hurricane Maria caused $1.2bn in losses and damages ( 226% of its GDP). Our electricity network was nearly destroyed, 90% of homes were damaged, and 85% of our forests were lost. By all indications, the damage across Grenada, Jamaica, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Barbados was as severe. But with pledges amounting to less than $750mn, the Loss and Damage fund is orders of magnitude smaller than what is needed.Hurricane Beryl, which has disrupted lives and economies across the Caribbean, should serve as a warning to those determining how much financing is available to climate-vulnerable countries. Piecemeal support is not enough; comprehensive financial reforms are required to strengthen vulnerable countries’ resilience, expand their access to emergency liquidity, and help them recover from physical and economic damage.As we enter what will likely be the most intense hurricane season in recorded history, these reforms can’t come soon enough. – Project SyndicatePepukaye Bardouille, Special Adviser on Climate Resilience to the Prime Minister of Barbados, is Director of the Bridgetown Initiative.

In many countries, innovation and good jobs have become increasingly concentrated in a few places. Some big cities have done well, but many regions feel left behind. In the US, the United Kingdom, many countries in Europe, and increasingly in other parts of the world, how to address these disparities has become a crucial question.At least since the 2008 global financial crisis, widespread frustration with stagnant economic prospects has fuelled increasingly dangerous forms of anger in developed countries. All too often, this has led to self-destructive economic policies such as Brexit or Donald Trump’s vow to round up and deport all unauthorised immigrants – a step that would immediately reduce the American workforce by about 5%, and likely cause the overall US economy to contract by a similar amount.But there is an entirely better way forward, as demonstrated by the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which overcame the US Senate’s filibuster rule (the de facto requirement of a three-fifths majority for all legislation) and passed by a vote of 64-33 (including 17 Republicans). The act authorised a boost to federal support for research and science, aiming to support breakthroughs across a broad range of sectors. Crucially, it also proposed to spread this support around the country, aiming to create next-generation tech hubs.Innovation typically involves technological breakthroughs, and over the past century the biggest – including radar, microelectronics, satellites, the internet, and biotech – have had profound effects throughout the economy. But as Jonathan Gruber and I explained in our 2019 book, Jump-Starting America, precisely because the impact is so widespread, the full benefits (including wide-ranging and often unanticipated spillovers) do not accrue to any individual firm or investor.In addition, the exact financial return from transformational breakthroughs is always hard to quantify. Consequently, venture capital and established corporations prefer to avoid the risks inherent in basic science, initial applications, and scaling up in markets of unknown size.Today, for example, the potentially overriding importance of quantum computing is not disputed, but the hesitancy of the US private sector to invest represents a major constraint – creating a significant risk that other geopolitical players will leapfrog America’s current advantages. Or consider biomanufacturing (using biological materials to make all manner of products), for which the basic concepts are firmly established. Here, too, the private sector is unwilling to support scaling up. And for advanced manufacturing (which generally denotes digital forms of control for machines, applied across many industrial processes), small and medium-size businesses are struggling to find and adopt domestic versions of what they need next.The US, Britain, France, and any number of other European countries urgently need to make strategic investments in key technologies, to create more good jobs, and to stay ahead of increasingly aggressive geopolitical competitors. To be sure, if other countries are rushing to invent the future, that increases the pressure on any one country to move fast – but this is generally a good thing, particularly in terms of job creation. As long as we are inventing useful things – not socially harmful goods like tobacco, junk food, and digital advertising – more competition to invent is likely to trigger a race to the top.During the implementation phase of the CHIPS and Science Act, the US Economic Development Administration designated 31 Tech Hubs in 32 states and Puerto Rico. In early July, the EDA announced $504mn in funding for 12 Regional Technology and Innovation Hubs, “to accelerate the growth of innovative industries.”Will all of these hubs succeed? Perhaps not: pursuing genuine innovation involves real risks, after all. And the funding so far almost certainly is not enough to have a significant impact. But the big news is that almost all parts of the country want to get in on the action – only four states failed to at least win a Strategy Development Grant.As Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, chair of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, put it with regard to the CHIPS and Science Act,“We don’t know exactly what innovations will come out of this, but we do know this: America will be more competitive because of it. And...we will be able to grow our economy for the future, because of the investments that we’ve made today.”If you want more good jobs, invest in science, facilitate the commercialisation of the technology that results from it, and make it easy for people to build companies where the product was invented. More funding and further strategic thinking is needed, in part because there will always be new technologies just over the horizon. But the CHIPS and Science Act has provided a major constructive step forward, and other countries should take note. – Project Syndicate• Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a co-author (with Daron Acemoglu) of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity (PublicAffairs, 2023).

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, smarting from setbacks in the April-June general election, is now being berated for recent budget by the country’s swing voters, the middle class, putting his party on the defensive ahead of polls in three states and a federal territory.The budget raised taxes on gains from retail investments in financial markets, left income tax rates untouched despite talk there would be relief and removed some real estate tax benefits, leading to outrage among the middle class, which makes up about 30% of India’s 1.42bn people.Graphics artist Namdev Katkar said he would like the opposition to replace the alliance led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in his state, Maharashtra, one of the four going to the polls. India’s financial capital, Mumbai, is in Maharashtra.“I will have to pay more taxes for my income and this is like losing our hard-earned money,” said Katkar, who said he invests his savings in the stock market. “I am not yet sure whom to vote for but this time it will not be the BJP.” While any possible losses in the regional polls will not affect Modi’s position as prime minister, they would add to questions about his leadership and reputation of invincibility after the BJP failed to clinch a majority in the general election to the lower house of parliament.“If the BJP loses in the regional elections, it will impact his leadership quite adversely,” said New Delhi-based political commentator Arati Jerath. “There is already a lot of restlessness within the party at the fact that in the last election...they could not even get the majority.” Regional votes are also important because they determine a party or alliance’s strength in the upper house of parliament. The middle class — loosely defined in India as those earning between $6,000 and $36,000 a year — is generally not ideologically attached to any party but has favoured the BJP because of its largely pro-business stance.Reuters spoke with a dozen middle-class voters in the three states after the budget and all of them said they were disappointed because their tax expenditure would either largely remain the same or rise.“This is hurting our pockets,” said Kumud Ranjan, who runs a public relations firm in the eastern state of Jharkhand. “I will think twice before voting for the BJP in the coming elections.” According to a poll by the CVoter survey agency, the budget was the most unpopular presented since Modi came to power in 2014, scoring 4 out of 10 from 2,000 respondents.Political analysts say the middle class represents India’s swing voters and along with local issues, rural distress and high unemployment, their anger could hurt the BJP’s chances in the state elections. Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and the federal territory of Jammu and Kashmir are due to go to the polls starting September.Economist Jayati Ghosh, who teaches at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said there was “justified resentment” among most of the middle class and that could affect the political narrative.“They have a significant voice in regular media, and especially also in social media, they can change the discourse in different ways,” she said.The opposition has been quick to press the issue.“The middle class probably supported the prime minister before this budget,” opposition leader Rahul Gandhi said in parliament. “But in this budget, you stabbed them in the back and chest. It’s a sad thing but carries a hidden benefit...the middle class is now leaving you and coming to our side.” Modi’s finance minister has said she realises the pain of the middle class but cannot do much.“I am also from the middle class...and understand their problems,” Nirmala Sitharaman told parliament after the budget. “I want to relieve the middle class but I have limitations too.” BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan said the “opposition is trying to set a narrative and they have all the right to do so”.“Our government or our party does not make any policy decisions for elections,” he said. “Be it the middle class or the lower middle class, taking all sections of society forward is our basic principle. The fact that we have presented our 11th budget...and have got another five years in power is a testament to people’s faith in our politics and policies.” To be sure, many economists have praised the budget for its focus on employment generation while reducing the government’s fiscal deficit target, partly thanks to a recent record dividend from the central bank.Amitabh Tiwari, a political analyst and former investment banker, said however the middle class ire could be a millstone for the ruling party.“The BJP has already paid the price,” said Tiwari. “Its inability to reach the simple majority mark (in the general election) is largely attributed to the middle class and the rich. And it could worsen, the pace of fall could increase.” - Reuters

Setting off with just 60% of the power needed to finish the race, drivers at the Formula E World Championship race in London this month relied on their brakes at tight turns to produce enough energy to complete the race’s 39 laps.The latest model of the electric racecar regenerates nearly half of its power from braking in what the International Automobile Federation (FIA), the motorsport’s organiser, described as the most efficient Formula E car yet.Since its first championship in 2014, Formula E has helped hasten the development of technology for electric vehicles (EVs), making them easier to sell to consumers.Tax incentives, price reductions and a greater range of vehicles are also expanding the market.“What we learn on the racetrack through software enables us to transfer that information to our core engineering teams for our future vehicles,” said James Barclay, team principal of Jaguar TCS Formula E racing team.Nearly one in five cars sold globally in 2023 was electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).EVs are set to play a key role in meeting net-zero goals by reducing oil usage and carbon emissions, the IEA said.But experts warn there are still barriers to the widespread adoption of EVs, which alone is not enough to tackle emissions from transport that are increasing as economies and populations grow.“Electric vehicles are a necessary but not sufficient condition for decarbonisation,” said Cecilia Briceno-Garmendia, global lead for transport economics at the World Bank.Advances in technology have helped increase the market share of EVs, according to a study by researchers from Yale University and Carnegie Mellon University.But it takes four to five years for innovations developed for Formula E racing to trickle down to passenger EVs, said Julia Palle, vice president of sustainability at Formula E.This year, Formula E teams are working to improve the efficiency of regenerative braking to ensure more energy created from braking is fed back to the battery when the car has the right momentum.Regenerative braking could also help to improve the range and drivability of passenger EVs, said Tommaso Volpe, team principal of Nissan’s Formula E team.The battery capacity of the Nissan Leaf, one of the first mass-produced EVs launched in 2010, has increased by 181% since the team joined Formula E in 2014.Winners of this year’s championship, Jaguar TCS have also boosted the battery range of Jaguar Land Rover’s electric SUVs, based on experience at the Formula E racetrack.The carmaker will use silicon carbide inverter technology, which allows for a faster, lightweight powertrain, developed for its race cars in all future Jaguar Land Rover vehicles.Teams are also experimenting with artificial intelligence (AI) to learn how energy is deployed during a race. AI would be even more useful in passenger EVs, where an engineer is unavailable to make changes on the spot, according to Volpe.Though considered environmentally safer than conventional cars, EVs come with their share of unsustainable practices, especially the mining of lithium for batteries.Formula E is looking at ways to extend battery life, reduce tyre waste and develop ultra-fast charging.The batteries used in Formula E cars are recycled, and both minerals and metals are reinserted into battery cells every other season, Palle said.“The real game changer is the charging infrastructure. There is not enough, and it is not fast enough,” she said.At the season finale at London’s ExCeL circuit on July 21, Formula E drivers created plenty of smoke as their tyres gripped the track. The smell of burnt rubber lingered beneath the stands — still far less air pollution than produced by conventional racecars.In addition to fuelling research into new technology, Formula E is also credited with popularising electric vehicles, showcasing their drivability and speed to consumers.EV sales have grown sharply in the last five years, reaching nearly 14mn in 2023, more than six times the number in 2018, according to the IEA.But those sales are concentrated in just three regions, with 95% of cars sold in China, the US and Europe. A lack of charging infrastructure and the price premium of EVs, which can cost 70% more than conventional vehicles according to the World Bank, have slowed EV uptake in the Global South.“The largest problem that we face moving forward is how to deal with transport decarbonisation in developing countries, where emissions are growing,” said Briceno-Garmendia.These countries need to invest in charging infrastructure and electrifying public transport, she said.Public charging points globally grew by 40% in 2023, with the increase in fast chargers outpacing that of slow chargers, according to the IEA.But charging infrastructure is still an issue for lower-income communities living in densely populated areas, according to Ashley Nunes, a researcher at Harvard University.“It’s simply impossible to build a charging station for every single person, and it’s even more impossible to do that when you live in highly dense housing, because there just isn’t enough space,” said Nunes.Switching to clean vehicles is the most direct way to tackle transport emissions, especially with demand for vehicles expected to grow.But governments also need to adapt urban planning to reduce traffic, invest in improving and electrifying public transport and switch road freight to rail and boat, said Briceno-Garmendia. – Thomson Reuters Foundation

**media[206292]** The climate crisis poses another severe threat to agriculture. Climate change is making weather more extreme and less predictable. This aggravates the uncertainty of agricultural production and farm management, which in turn deters farmers from reinvesting profits back into production to become more competitive. Besides, the increasing uncertainty of running a farm feeds the perception among young people seeking stable jobs and high income that farming is not an easy choice to build a career.The question is: “Is there a way for agriculture to overcome climate change and labour shortages, and then make a new leap forward?” The answer lies in smart farming. Advanced agricultural technologies applied to smart farming allow farmers to grow and harvest crops in a safe and efficient way, even under unfavourable environmental conditions in terms of soil fertility, sunlight, and climate.In a recent survey of about 100 South Korean indoor farmers who equipped their farms with smart technologies such as environment monitoring and control systems, they reported that their incomes increased by an average of 40%, with a 7% saving in labour input in the first year of smart farming.A few years ago, extreme whether events hit South Korea and triggered widespread tomato crop failures, which eventually led to a situation where fast-food restaurants in the country were forced to serve hamburgers without tomato slices.To prevent similar situations in the future, big supermarket chains in South Korea have increased their purchases of fresh agricultural produce from smart farms by 20% this year. Also, young farmers, who received professional training in the ‘Smart Farm Innovation Valley,’ an industrial complex for smart farming innovation, have been selling out of their fresh-cut vegetable crops grown on smart farms, such as arugula and apple mint.This is one example of how going “smart” in agricultural production and distribution can help tackle climate change. Now is the time for the government to create a policy to nurture and support ‘smart’ farmers so that they can turn their innovative ideas into a reality. As the first step of such efforts, the Act on Fostering and Supporting Smart Farming went into effect in South Korea from July 26 this year. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs of the Republic of Korea (MAFRA) will continue to work hard to support the development of the smart farming industry.First, we will establish a medium- and long-term master plan to foster the smart farming industry in a systematic way, and will work together with local governments to implement projects reflecting the characteristics of each rural community. Most of all, we will designate a special smart-farming district that houses smart farms as well as a full spectrum of forward- and backward-linked industries covering agricultural machinery, services, processing, distribution, etc. In the district, we will provide intensive policy support for smart farming, such as building a complex of lease-based smart farms, granting special admission to shared-use areas and facilities, and other forms of support.Second, we will train people into smart-farming experts. To run a smart farm, farmers must be equipped with skills to analyse data and operate digital equipment and devices. Therefore, we will designate two academic institutions specialising in smart farming in August this year and then run vocational training courses there to produce smart farmers and smart-farming consultants. Next year, we will also introduce a qualification system for a smart farming manager, who provides farmers with on-site training, technical advice, and consulting services.Third, we will step up our efforts to improve relevant policies and systems, as well as increase our investment to ensure development of innovative agricultural technologies. Vertical farms are growing in numbers around the world, but their growth in South Korea has been stunted by regulations prohibiting the erection of a vertical farm in any farmland or industrial district. To resolve the issue, we will amend a relevant law and relax the regulations on the siting of vertical farms by the end of this year.Also, we will expand our support for development of new smart farming technologies based on artificial intelligence, drones, and robotics, etc. Such support will also go to establishment of standards for smart-farming machinery and data formats, as well as to follow-up management and maintenance.Last but not least, the Korean government will continue to pursue co-operation with Qatar and other countries in smart farming to contribute to overcoming global food crisis caused by the climate crisis. Importantly, through close co-operation with Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries, we will provide strong support for them to overcome the challenges of desert climate and enhance their food security.South Korea has already been making good progress in co-operation with Qatar in smart farming. In February this year, both sides held the first meeting of the ROK-Qatar Smart Farm Co-operation Committee in Doha, Qatar and subsequently in May, the Qatari economic working group visited South Korea to further the discussion about co-operation in smart farming.The climate crisis and agricultural crises are the challenges that the international community must overcome to ensure food security and human health. Smart farming is a clear-cut solution to those challenges. The Korean government will make its utmost effort to resolve such agricultural challenges and transform agriculture into an industry that will sustain hopes for a better future for our children and young people. To this end, we will give our all to foster the smart-farming industry and co-operate with the international community.

For a while now, it has been clear that two elections – one on each side of the Atlantic – would decide the fate of liberal democracy in 2024: the June European Parliament elections and the November US presidential election. While fears that European elections would deliver a resounding victory to far-right anti-European Union parties were not borne out, liberal democracy is hardly in the clear, in Europe or the United States.Though the EU was spared the worst in the recent elections, far-right parties did make significant gains, especially in the two largest (economically) and most important (politically) member states, France and Germany. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland took second place, while the centre-right Christian Democrats remained the strongest force. In France, the far-right National Rally came in first, leading President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and call a snap election.That decision brought National Rally to the threshold of power, though a disaster was averted in the election’s second round. The left, united under the umbrella of the New Popular Front, came in first, but fell well short of a majority. With a hung parliament, France will be paralysed, with fatal consequences for Europe. Germany alone cannot advance the bloc’s objective of securing its sovereignty in a more dangerous world.Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a political hurricane is brewing. Following his poor debate performance in June, President Joe Biden has finally decided to drop out of the race and endorse his vice-president, Kamala Harris. But Donald Trump is at the gates. If polls are borne out, he could return to the White House in January, and that, too, would have far-reaching consequences for Europe (along with the rest of the West).This would not just affect Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Europe’s fundamentally altered security situation, or the uncertain future of Nato. Rather, it concerns the core values and institutions that underpin Western democracy. If the US is transformed from a liberal democracy to an “illiberal” one, there are many in Europe who will celebrate its new identity. Moreover, one should never underestimate the extent to which America can influence European affairs.Another Trump presidency would not be like the last one. Trump 2.0 would do everything he could to change America permanently from a liberal democracy to one in which his own autocratic, authoritarian impulses would have free rein. He would show zero tolerance for his enemies and rivals, and no concern whatsoever for the separation of powers or the constitution. He already demonstrated how far he is willing to go on January 6, 2021, when he encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol, following weeks of efforts to overturn the results of a free and fair election.For this reason, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the only one hoping for a Trump victory. All right-wing-nationalist and far-right parties are, because they long to usher in the same kinds of changes at home.Our current understanding of Western liberal democracy – featuring a separation of powers, free and fair elections, the rule of law, constitutional protections for minorities, freedom of expression, and other fundamental rights – is the result of America’s victories in World War II and then the Cold War. If the US were to abdicate its role as the driving force and leading exemplar of this liberal form of democracy, the liberal West as a whole would be in danger, and liberal Europe even more so.A Trump victory would strengthen and embolden far-right-nationalist parties across the continent, while bolstering Russia through a cessation of American support for Ukraine. With France already paralysed, the European project would be completely at the mercy of those who want to do away with it. For those who value the EU, it would be nothing short of a nightmare.As the Ukraine crisis has shown, the transatlantic West cannot be defeated from the outside, but it can be weakened and pulled apart from within. If Europeans slide back into nationalism, we will have squandered our last chance to decide our own fate, and to ensure peace and freedom for our children and grandchildren.Given the changing geopolitical environment – the rivalry between major powers, the rise of the Global South, the demographic weakness of advanced economies, and new technological revolutions – Europe will not get another chance to shape the world of tomorrow. A lot is at stake on November 5, 2024, when Americans go to the polls. The world as we know it here in liberal Europe could cease to exist on the morning of November 6.