Opinion

Intense. Impatient. Sleep-deprived. Step into the relentless world of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s wartime president.The 46-year-old said his ambition when he was elected in 2019 had been to help Ukraine become a modern democracy, before that mission was shattered by Russia’s invasion in 2022.“All I wanted five years ago was a very liberal country with a liberal economy,” Zelensky, a former stand-up comic, told Reuters in an interview in May on the fifth anniversary of his inauguration.This week, he instead found himself professing his desire to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin as he expressed anger and anguish over an air strike that hit Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital.The war-hardened Zelensky who’s exhorted Western leaders to action at the Nato summit in Washington in recent days is a world away from the political novice who became president, let alone the TV comedian who was a showbiz heavyweight for years before.He once even won Ukraine’s version of Dancing with the Stars.The clean-shaven, boyish Zelensky sworn in as president in Kyiv in 2019 wearing a stylish suit fitted to his slight frame has been replaced by a much older looking, heavier-set, brooding figure typically clad in paramilitary fatigues with unshaven stubble and dark circles under his eyes.Zelensky largely veered away from questions about himself in the interview with Reuters, instead focusing on his deep frustrations with some of Ukraine’s wartime allies and returning to his central message: the West must to do more to help.Reuters spoke to eight current and former Ukrainian and foreign officials who have worked with Zelensky, as well as several friends and colleagues from his past.They paint a portrait of a leader who has become tougher and more decisive, less tolerant of mistakes and even prone to paranoia, as he copes with round-the-clock stress and fatigue.“This is a sleep-deprived regime,” said Zelensky’s former defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, adding that the president was often on the move around Ukraine and had a “grab bag” with a change of clothes and a toothbrush because he frequently didn’t know where he’d be spending the night.“This is the president’s daily life — broken sleep. It is consultations at night and addresses to parliaments, senates... regardless of the time,” Reznikov said. “He’s in stress mode 24 hours a day, seven days a week — it’s a never-ending marathon.”There’s little tolerance for the ill-prepared.Zelensky will order officials and advisers out of the room if he feels they’re not fully ready, according to a member of his team, who recounted how the president dismissed his aides in frustration during a meeting earlier this year to plan the information campaign surrounding the mobilisation drive.“If he sees people aren’t prepared or are contradicting each other, he’ll say, get out of here. I don’t have time for this,” said the team member who was present at the meeting and requested anonymity to speak freely about Zelensky.Many of the people interviewed spoke of being impressed by Zelensky’s mental endurance and his ability to cope with his role as Ukraine’s president, wartime commander-in-chief and bridge to the world.“His memory is a huge strength. He keeps a large amount of information in his head, he very quickly grasps details and nuances,” Reznikov said. “This gift accelerated his rapid mastery of the English language — I watched it.”Former minister Reznikov, who was dismissed by Zelensky in September 2023 after corruption scandals at his ministry that he denied any connection with, dismissed any suggestion that a former TV funnyman with scant geopolitical experience would struggle to take on the might of Putin’s Russia, whose forces overwhelmingly outnumber and outgun Ukraine’s.“I would apply Mark Twain’s quote to President Zelensky,” he added. “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight; it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”At the same time, Zelensky has grown increasingly “paranoid” about suspected Russian attempts to assassinate him and destabilise Ukraine’s leadership, according to a senior European official who has held talks with the leader.“And rightly so,” the official added.Zelensky’s grave appeals to the Nato summit this week present a stark counterpoint to the irreverent comedy sketches that sent audience into howls of laughter in years gone by.One YouTube clip from 2016 shows Ukraine’s future leader standing behind a piano with his trousers around his ankles, “playing” tunes despite his hands being nowhere near the keyboard, to the delight of the crowd.“Of course he’s changed over the past five years,” said Andriy Shaykan, who studied with Zelensky at the Kryvyi Rih Economic Institute between 1995 and 2000. “He’s become older, as a person upon whom an incredible burden is placed. He sleeps for a few hours a night. That huge pressure — it shows.”Zelensky grew up in the 1990s in Kryvyi Rih, a steelmaking city in central Ukraine that was consumed by economic turmoil and rampant crime after the breakup of the Soviet Union.He found his niche in entertainment, building a hit comedy troupe — named Kvartal 95 after his home district — which won the KVN Russian TV talent show popular across the former Soviet region.In 2015, Zelensky starred in a new TV sitcom Servant of the People, playing an honest school teacher who becomes Ukrainian president after a classroom rant about corruption goes viral online.The role struck a chord with Ukrainians fed up with post-Soviet graft and, in an extraordinary case of life mimicking art, helped catapult him into the president’s office in a landslide vote.Artem Gagarin, a writer for Kvartal 95, admits he was baffled when his former boss decided to run for office.“He was Ukraine’s top comic, basically the top show-businessman. Why did he need this?”Five years on, he says he is grateful that Zelensky chose the path he did, as he has proved himself a natural leader.“Otherwise, where would we be now?”Zelensky certainly isn’t universally loved at home.His public approval rating, which leapt to 90% in 2022 after the invasion as Ukrainians rallied round the flag, has been dragged down by war fatigue, an unpopular conscription drive, the sacking of a respected general and a grim battlefield outlook that has seen Russia slowly advancing in the east in recent months.A president elected to drain the establishment swamp in a fierce expression of Ukrainian democracy has become ruler of a country under martial law.Zelensky’s main political rivals have been frozen out of key decision-making about issues such as military strategy, governance and international relations throughout the war and many ordinary Ukrainians have voiced unease at the concentration of power in his team’s hands.“People now do not perceive him as previously, as an anti-establishment politician, a former comedian,” said Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv-based KIIS pollster. “They see him as a military leader and all the jokes from the past, people leave them in the past.”Zelensky’s public approval has stabilised at around 60%, which is “high considering the overall difficult situation” of a war that is dragging on with no end in sight, Hrushetskyi added.US Representative Michael McCaul, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who has met Zelensky several times in Ukraine and in Washington, told Reuters that he had grown into his position as an inspiring wartime leader.That process began when he refused to be evacuated by the West at the start of the war as Russian troops bore down on Kyiv, McCaul said.“Zelensky is always serious, and gets to the point,” he added. “I remember meeting with him and his generals and they gave me a list of weapons that they wanted.”Despite having supporters like McCaul and US President Joe Biden, Zelensky has struggled to retain global attention for Ukraine’s plight since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October last year.His persistent appeals for more Western aid are often imbued with a moral indignation that Ukraine is paying in blood to defend the democratic world from Russia.“He repeats 15 times what he needs, that we need to do more or face the consequences, and he doesn’t let it go,” said the senior European official.The Ukrainian leader has become increasingly frustrated with Western nations, according to a second European official who said he would be well advised to “tread carefully” to avoid alienating much-needed allies.At meetings and phone calls with foreign officials, Zelensky hammers home the same message, relentlessly pushing his cause, two European officials told Reuters.More recently, in a subtle but notable shift of emphasis since a summit in Switzerland held to garner international support and isolate Russia, he has underlined the urgent need for a fair resolution to the war and talked of a second summit later this year that could include a representative from Moscow.“We don’t want to drag out this war and we must reach a just peace as soon as possible,” he said in Kyiv after talks with Slovenia’s president on June 28.Trying to ramp up pressure on Nato on his way to its Vilnius summit last year, Zelensky lashed out at the military alliance saying it was “absurd” that it failed to give Kyiv a clear timetable for it to join.In Washington this week, with that goal still elusive, the Ukrainian leadership was less abrasive, with his chief of staff saying he was happy with its outcome.Zelensky himself has warded off questions about how he has performed as leader of Ukraine under exceptional circumstances.“I cannot assess my activity, I think it is not very ethical,” he said in the interview with Reuters at his office in central Kyiv to mark five years in power.“I am proud that I am the president of Ukraine — this is my attitude to all these five years.” — Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron was first elected in 2017 on a promise to end the often-artificial divisions between left and right. France had become tired of theatrical posturing between adversaries who overplayed their differences during electoral campaigns, only to end up, once in power, governing in fairly similar ways. Macron’s brand of radical centrism was meant to end the grandstanding, draw on good ideas from both sides of the political spectrum, and govern accordingly. It intended to turn the opposition between left and right into a historical relic.Seven years later, the outcome of the general election this month indicates that, if anything, France is even more polarised than it was in 2017. The right has moved further to the right, and the formerly dominant Gaullist camp is reduced to fewer than 50 MPs squeezed between the extreme right and Macron’s centrist Ensemble (Together) coalition. Part of what remains of Saturday’s right is divided between Macron supporters and opponents.Meanwhile, the once-eviscerated left has rebuilt itself – and moved much further to the left. Rebranded as Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front, NFP), it is now the largest of the three main camps in the National Assembly, though it does not command an absolute majority and is far from homogeneous.Economic manifestos are indicative of this polarisation. Although France has the highest level of public spending of all advanced economies, the NFP’s program envisions €150bn ($163bn) of new public spending – 4-5% of GDP – financed by an equivalent amount of taxes. The Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN), Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, has softened the edges of its economic plans, but still is considering exiting Europe’s single market for electricity or reversing Macron’s latest pension reform.Differences regarding the green transition are strong, with the RN campaigning to reverse it while the NFP would speed it up. And they are extreme for migration policy, with RN becoming engulfed in controversy after floating the idea of excluding bi-national citizens from access to certain public-service positions.Far from having reduced political polarisation, therefore, Macronism has had the paradoxical effect of discrediting centrist policies and pushing opponents toward extremism. This does not bode well for the future of French policymaking.Was this outcome inevitable? In part, it reflects a governing style that deprived opponents of political oxygen and left them little choice but to search for refuge in equally radical and mutually opposed corners. But, as is true in the United States or other developed countries, French polarisation has much deeper economic and sociological roots.Despite extensive social protection, a high degree of redistribution, and the major contribution of public services to limiting inequality of access to health, education, and other essential amenities, France is a divided country where many citizens feel left out. Moreover, the voting system encourages radicalism, especially on the left.To survive politically, social democrats are compelled to enter an electoral alliance with the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), which they oppose on a range of economic, social, and foreign-policy issues. Although the Socialists campaigned for June’s European Parliament election on a pro-Europe, social democratic platform and attracted some 40% more voters than France Unbowed, they had to sign on to a fiscally irresponsible tax-and-spend platform for the national election.Things may change. With all three camps (left, centre, and far right) far from holding an absolute majority, some sort of coalition must be formed to establish a stable government. Moreover, each camp contains three or four factions. For example, the NFP comprises France Unbowed, the Socialists, and the Greens, which may split. The game is therefore very open.Departing from his past behaviour, Macron acknowledged the new electoral landscape and the corresponding political logic. In an open letter to French citizens after the election’s second round, he called for a “sincere and loyal dialogue” between political parties with the aim of building a “solid, necessarily plural majority.” Although other political camps rejected his proposal out of hand, it may end up being implemented for the lack of an alternative.For a new majority to be formed, however, several conditions must be met. The left, which so far has played the role of the winner, must accept that coalition partners are unlikely to subscribe to its radical economic programme. And to prevent the next government from being vulnerable to a parliamentary ambush, the voting system must be changed so that parties can compete on their own in future elections and are no longer held hostage by their political allies. The issue is political, not constitutional, as the French system makes it possible to change the voting system by simple majority.The more fundamental challenge is to respond to the frustration and the grievances of those who voted for the far right. About a third of French voters supported RN in the parliamentary election, and the tally was much larger outside big cities. Entire regions are now dominated by the far right.Whether or not this pattern can be reversed is the overriding question for the future of France – and of Europe. If the results of France’s latest election are not to be a mere temporary reprieve, political manoeuvring will not suffice. Only deeds will convince alienated voters that their voice counts. — Project Syndicate• Jean Pisani-Ferry, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel and a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, holds the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute.

Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading disease experts. Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 US states signals a change that could bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have been found in other mammals, from alpacas to house cats.“It almost seems like a pandemic unfolding in slow motion,” said Scott Hensley, a professor of microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania. “Right now, the threat is pretty low...but that could change in a heartbeat.”The earlier the warning of a jump to humans, the sooner global health officials can take steps to protect people by launching vaccine development, wide-scale testing and containment measures. Federal surveillance of US dairy cows is currently limited to testing herds before they cross state lines. State testing efforts are inconsistent, while testing of people exposed to sick cattle is scant, government health officials and pandemic flu experts told Reuters.“You need to know which are the positive farms, how many of the cows are positive, how well the virus spreads, how long do these cows remain infectious, the exact transmission route,” said Dutch flu virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. Dr Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said surveillance for humans is “very, very limited.”Marrazzo described the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s human flu surveillance network as “really a passive reporting, passive presentation mechanism.” The US Department of Agriculture is more proactive in testing cows, but does not make public which farms are affected, she said.Several experts said differing approaches from animal and human health agencies could hamper a quicker response.“If you were designing the system from scratch, you would have one agency,” said Gigi Gronvall, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “This is not the only example where we have environmental or animal problems that cause human problems.”A USDA spokesperson said the agency is working “around the clock” with CDC and other partners in a “whole-of-government response,” adding that ongoing research shows “America’s food supply remains safe, sick cows generally recover after a few weeks, and the risk to human health remains low.”The CDC in a statement said it, “USDA, and state and local health departments across the country have been preparing for the emergence of a novel influenza virus for nearly 2 decades and continually monitor for even the smallest changes in the virus.”Some pandemics, including Covid-19, arrive with little warning. In the last flu pandemic, caused by H1N1 in 2009, the virus and its predecessors had first spread among animals for several years, Hensley said, but more surveillance would have helped health authorities prepare.Three people in the US have tested positive for H5N1 avian flu since late March after contact with cows, experiencing mild symptoms. One person in Mexico was infected with a separate H5 strain not previously seen in humans, and with no known exposure to animals. Other cases were reported in India, China and Australia, caused by different strains.The World Health Organisation says H5N1’s risk to humans is low because there is no evidence of human transmission. Some tools are available if that changes, including limited amounts of existing H5N1 vaccine and antiviral medications like Tamiflu.There are mechanisms to launch larger-scale production of tests, treatments and vaccines, if needed, said the UN agency’s head of flu, Wenqing Zhang.Other experts said there is sufficient concern to start preparing for potential spread in humans, although triggers for taking action differ depending on the role played in the response, said Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). His organisation acted early on funding Covid vaccine development, and is now in talks with research partners about H5N1.CEPI aims to create a library of prototype vaccines for pathogens with pandemic potential. This would help drugmakers initiate large-scale production and distribute shots where necessary within 100 days of an outbreak.Some countries are taking steps to protect people against H5N1. The United States and Europe are securing doses of “pre-pandemic” flu vaccine that could be used for high-risk groups, including farm or lab workers. Finland is expected to become the first country to inoculate fur and poultry farm workers, as well as animal health response workers.Expanding vaccine access is also complex, said the WHO’s Zhang. Manufacturers of potential pandemic flu vaccines make seasonal flu shots and cannot produce both at once, she said.Since most flu vaccines are made using virus grown in eggs, it could take up to six months to produce pandemic shots. The US is in talks with Moderna to use their faster mRNA technology for pandemic flu shots.The experts all acknowledged a need to balance acting quickly to avert a threat versus overreacting.“We want to sound a note of caution,” said Wendy Barclay, a virologist at Imperial College London who also advises the UK Health Security Agency on avian flu, “without saying the world is about to end.” — ReutersPOINTS TO PONDER• Concerns over surveillance gaps: Scientists are worried that current gaps in surveillance for bird flu, particularly in migratory birds and dairy herds in the US, may prevent timely detection of the virus potentially becoming transmissible between humans.• Need for improved co-ordination and response: Differing approaches between animal and human health agencies, inconsistent state testing efforts, and limited human surveillance are seen as obstacles to a more effective and quicker response to the potential threat.• Preparatory measures and vaccine development: There is a call for increased preparation, including the development of prototype vaccines, securing “pre-pandemic” flu vaccine doses for high-risk groups, and considering faster mRNA technology for pandemic flu shots. Some countries are already taking steps to protect people against H5N1.

The global economy seems to be stabilising, following several years of overlapping negative shocks.Despite elevated financing costs and heightened geopolitical tensions, global activity firmed in early 2024, according to the World Bank.Global growth is envisaged to reach a slightly faster pace this year than previously expected, due mainly to the continued solid expansion of the US economy.However, the extent of expected declines in global interest rates has moderated amid lingering inflation pressures in key economies.By historical standards, the global outlook remains subdued: both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are set to grow at a slower pace over 2024-26 than in the decade preceding the pandemic.Domestic demand is projected to improve in many EMDEs this year, in line with a moderate cyclical recovery from the effects of high inflation, tight financial conditions, and anaemic industrial activity, the World Bank noted.Moreover, significant challenges persist in vulnerable economies—including in low-income countries (LICs) and those facing elevated levels of conflict and violence—where growth prospects have deteriorated markedly since January.Global trade growth is recovering, supported by a pickup in goods trade. Services-trade growth is expected to provide less of a tailwind this year, given that tourism has nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels.However, the trade outlook remains lacklustre compared to recent decades, partly reflecting a proliferation of trade-restrictive measures and elevated trade policy uncertainty.Aggregate commodity prices have increased since late last year. Amid fluctuations, average oil prices are expected to be slightly higher in 2024 than in 2023, underpinned by a tight demand-supply balance in a context of continued geopolitical tensions, the World Bank points out.Metals prices are expected to be little changed over the forecast horizon, as demand related to metals-intensive clean energy investments and a broader pickup in global industrial activity attenuate the impact on commodity demand of declining real estate activity in China.Well-supplied markets for grains and other agricultural commodities should see edible food crop prices decline modestly.Inflation continues to wane globally, making progress toward central bank targets in advanced economies and EMDEs, but at a slower pace than previously expected.Core inflation has remained stubbornly high in many economies, supported by rapid growth of services prices. Over the remainder of 2024, continued tight monetary policy stances and slowing wage increases should help reduce inflation further.By the end of 2026, global inflation is expected to settle at an average rate of 2.8%, broadly consistent with central bank targets.The anticipated extent of monetary easing in advanced economies this year has diminished substantially since late 2023—by more than a percentage point in the case of the United States.Expected policy rate paths diverge across major economies, as the European Central Bank proceeds with policy easing while the US Federal Reserve keeps rates on hold for longer.Despite this market reassessment, global financial conditions have eased this year, reflecting solid risk appetite following last year’s progress on disinflation and diminished concerns about the possibility of a sharp slowdown in global growth.In particular, global equity markets have made sizeable gains, the World Bank said.

In many countries, the political landscape is changing dramatically, possibly auguring more radical policies in both the US and Europe. Faced with societal ageing, de-globalisation, climate change, anti-immigration sentiment, and technological advances, central banks will feel pressure from many different directions in the coming years.One obvious concern is fiscal policy and debt. When radical politicians come to power, they rarely have austerity in mind. Most arrive with big audacious plans requiring massive increases in spending. (Argentinian President Javier Milei is an exception, in part because he was elected to reverse the policies of the previous radicals).But moderate leaders also will feel greater pressure to spend in the years ahead. Real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are likely to return to their long-term trend, which means debt-service costs will eat up more of governments’ budgets. Military spending also will undoubtedly rise, given the state of geopolitics, and spending on education will probably have to increase as governments try to position their populations for an era of artificial intelligence. On top of it all, climate-related spending and subsidies have become more urgent. Political dysfunction makes it hard to tax emissions, which would be more fiscally prudent, or raise tax revenues more generally.All this additional net spending implies that central banks will have to offset governments’ expansionary impulses with tighter policy. But with many countries already heavily indebted, sustained higher real policy rates will fuel doubt about debt sustainability. Will central banks blink and allow higher price growth, in the hope of inflating away some of the debt? Or will they stand up to their respective governments, raise rates, and risk a “Liz Truss moment”? When fiscal priorities and debt levels determine the scope of monetary policy, economists call it “fiscal dominance.” We are likely to see more cases of this.What about demographic trends? Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan believe that with the Chinese working-age population shrinking, and populations ageing elsewhere, growth will slow as the labour force declines. Meanwhile, spending will rise – partly to meet the need for more elder care – and wage growth may strengthen as workers become scarce. All this will be inflationary.Of course, others believe that savings will rise with ageing, and that immigration into ageing countries will help stave off labour shortages. But given many ageing countries’ open refusal to accept a large number of immigrants, this optimistic scenario seems less likely.Ever since Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from China, we have been witnessing a broad-based return of protectionism, translating first into lower cross-border investment. So far, trade has held up, partly because Chinese inputs are being shipped for final assembly to other countries before being sent to the US. But if Trump returns to the White House next January, he will try to end such trans-shipments, while raising tariffs all around.De-globalisation will continue to increase the price of foreign goods. But whether this process is inflationary may depend on how the process unfolds. As Ludovica Ambrosino, Jenny Chan, and Silvana Tenreyro note in ongoing work, if the tariffs are sudden, inflation will spike significantly, and central banks will find it hard to avoid hiking interest rates.In the medium term, the researchers suggest, domestic importers will shift to alternative suppliers; and because the economy will be poorer and consumption lower (each dollar of spending will buy fewer imports), inflation will taper off. Interestingly, if the higher import prices kick in more gradually, falling demand in anticipation of higher import prices could lead to a slowdown in inflation for domestic goods, keeping overall inflation contained. Thus, protectionism may increase import prices; but because it also makes us poorer and depresses demand, it may not increase inflation much.This relatively benign view must be set against our experience in the decades of globalisation before the global financial crisis, when inflation fell worldwide. If globalization brought down inflation, shouldn’t de-globalisation raise it?This is what Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff, and Pierre Yared argue. De-globalisation, by reducing competition, will boost monopoly profits and thus increase central banks’ temptation to allow for more inflation (as a means of eroding those profits and sustaining labour’s share of output). Of course, de-globalisation could also increase union power, which, under the same assumptions, should mitigate this temptation. But given that globalisation was accompanied by lower inflation, we should at least prepare for the possibility that de-globalisation will do the opposite.The transition to a low-carbon economy will further complicate the picture. As ongoing work by Luca Fornaro, Veronica Guerrieri, and Lucrezia Reichlin suggests, green regulation typically imposes additional costs on dirty energy sources, sometimes to the point that banks will not even fund such projects. But as long as dirty energy is a necessary production input, output that relies on it will be costlier. And when demand rises, firms will have to use more dirty energy, increasing costs and output prices further.To contain inflation, central-bank policies will have to be much tighter, and that will mean slower growth. It also may slow the shift in demand toward green energy and inhibit investment in renewables (which, in the medium term, would alleviate dependence on fossil fuels). Faced with this prospect, green-oriented central banks may reasonably want to be more tolerant of higher inflation, to facilitate the green transition.Most of the forces and dynamics discussed here push toward higher inflation. True, if productivity increases as a result of technological advances like the widespread implementation of AI, inflationary pressures could ease because of greater, cheaper supply. At this point, however, this is more of a hope than a reality.Perhaps the greatest worry is that with electorates demanding a change, radical leaders will create the conditions for higher inflation – for instance, by stopping immigration or spending without restraint – even as they erode the independence of the central bank. That happened regularly in the past, and the consequences were not pretty. We may have to relearn old lessons the hard way. – Project SyndicateRaghuram G Rajan, a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the co-author (with Rohit Lamba) of Breaking the Mold: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton University Press, May 2024)

This summer of record-breaking heatwaves and contentious elections around the world offers a valuable opportunity to reflect on the role individuals can play in driving positive change. By building coalitions and amplifying the voices of those most affected by crises, we can muster the courage and political will needed to overcome seemingly insurmountable global challenges.Climate change and biodiversity loss are prime examples. As a long-time environmental-justice advocate, I have seen firsthand the profound impact of both on frontline communities and indigenous peoples. These populations have been hit the hardest by these interlinked crises, which jeopardize their livelihoods, health, and cultural heritage.The diverse land and marine environments that sustain indigenous communities also underpin life and society as we know it. We depend on healthy ecosystems for food, shelter, water, medical advances, and disease prevention. More than 50% of the world’s GDP, estimated at $44tn, depends on nature. Crucially, thriving ecosystems act as natural carbon sinks, absorbing up to 50% of the greenhouse gases produced by human activities.By threatening critical carbon sinks like rainforests and oceans, biodiversity loss exacerbates climate change, which in turn accelerates environmental degradation, leaving millions of people, as well as countless plant and animal species, increasingly vulnerable. The good news is that we can reverse this: by fostering resilient and diverse ecosystems, we can mitigate the effects of climate change and create a virtuous circle that protects frontline communities.Amid the largest mass extinction in more than 65mn years, protecting biodiversity is more urgent than ever. Studies show that nearly half of the world’s animal species are currently experiencing rapid population declines, with Latin America and Africa facing the most severe loss of biodiversity.While these developments paint a bleak picture, there has been some progress in addressing the biodiversity crisis. In 2022, at the UN summit on biodiversity in Montreal (COP15), the parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity approved the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). This landmark agreement, which required years of coalition building and advocacy campaigns, outlined a strategy to stop and reverse nature loss, including the ambitious target of preserving at least 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030.Under the GBF, developed countries pledged to provide the Global South, where most of the world’s remaining biodiversity is located, with at least $20bn annually by 2025 and $30bn annually by 2030. If fulfilled, these commitments would enable developing countries to implement ambitious national biodiversity action plans, thereby safeguarding the world’s most climate-vulnerable populations.Unfortunately, the world is currently far from achieving these goals. A new report by the London-based think tank ODI reveals that, of the 28 countries it assessed, 23 have failed to fulfil their biodiversity financing commitments as of 2021 (the latest year for which data are available). To meet their 2025 targets, these countries would need to double their contributions.The gulf between climate pledges and action appears even more troubling when one considers that $20bn per year represents only 1.1% of the $1.8tn that countries around the world spend annually on environmentally harmful subsidies. These resources, equivalent to 2% of global GDP, support sectors like fossil fuels and industrial agriculture, which account for most greenhouse-gas emissions and drive biodiversity loss.To protect the planet’s natural assets, governments must align their spending with their stated values. The European Union’s new Nature Restoration Law, which aims to restore at least 20% of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, and all degraded ecosystems by 2050, represents an important step in this direction.To be sure, there is much more to be done. Ahead of October’s UN biodiversity conference in Colombia (COP16), policymakers and climate advocates must continue to build global coalitions to close the biodiversity financing gap. They must also ensure that when it comes to conservation and restoration projects, the communities most affected by environmental degradation – especially indigenous peoples – are included in the decision-making process.Protecting and restoring biodiversity is crucial to supporting the recovery of our planet’s natural ecosystems and mitigating the worst effects of climate change. At COP16, global leaders will have the chance to create a virtuous circle of change. Ensuring a sustainable future requires that they seize this opportunity. –Project SyndicateMary Robinson, a former president of Ireland and former UN high commissioner for human rights, is Chair of The Elders and a member of the Global Steering Committee at Campaign for Nature.

With November’s election in the US fast approaching, Democrats continue to debate whether to campaign on the economy or the future of democracy. In fact, research at the Chicago Center on Democracy shows that the two issues are closely connected: high levels of income inequality increase the risk of a democracy sliding into autocracy.The US is highly unequal, by international standards, and that inequality is partly to blame for the erosion of its democracy. If Democrats can wrest the mantle of economic anti-elitism away from Donald Trump and continue to improve the lives of low- and middle-income Americans, they could help pull the country back from the brink of authoritarianism.About two dozen countries around the world are experiencing different forms of democratic erosion or backsliding. Most commonly, elected presidents and prime ministers aggrandise their own powers by attacking the press and judiciary, impugning public servants and civil-society groups, and undermining confidence in elections when they lose.Global analysis of democracies reveals a startling regularity: the more unequal a society, both in terms of income and wealth, the greater the risk of democratic backsliding. National income (GDP per capita) has a smaller effect, while a democracy’s age and the strength of its public institutions have no discernible influence. Inequality is the key factor.For example, Sweden, which is more equal than 87% of democracies, had about a 4% risk of democratic erosion in 2017. On the other end of the spectrum, South Africa, the world’s most unequal democracy, had a risk of around 30%. As for the US, which remains more unequal than 60% of all democracies (despite recent wealth gains at the bottom of the distribution), the risk was 9%, more than double that of Sweden.To understand how economic inequality erodes democracy requires a closer look at the differences between the US and Sweden. Most notably, both countries have a prominent right-wing nationalist party. The Sweden Democrats – the Swedish equivalent of the MAGA-dominated Republican Party in the US – have gained support by opposing the country’s relative openness to immigration over the past two decades. They now play an important role in the centre-right governing coalition after finishing second in the 2022 parliamentary election, ahead of traditional conservative parties.Despite this, Sweden is not displaying the symptoms of democratic erosion that are becoming increasingly pronounced in the US. Politicians do not call the press the “enemies of the people”, attack judges and prosecutors, threaten to purge the civil service, or question the integrity of elections.Presumably such behaviour would not resonate widely with the Swedish public, because, in a country with a relatively small gap between rich and poor, confidence in public institutions remains comparatively high. Swedes across the board have benefited from the country’s generous welfare state, which the Sweden Democrats have buttressed by pushing for increased social spending in areas like public health and education. Overall, Europe’s nationalist right tends to be more supportive of social policy than legacy conservative parties.What is strange about America’s would-be autocrat is that his populism is so half-hearted (as well as half-baked). While Trump discourages fellow Republicans from cutting Social Security and Medicare, his messaging on the issue has been inconsistent, and he never misses a chance to call for repeal of the Affordable Care Act.Since efforts to subvert democratic systems are more likely to succeed in unequal societies, the US and other countries can strengthen democracy by fostering a fairer economy. That means the Democrats don’t have to choose between campaigning on economic growth and equity, on one hand, and the future of democracy, on the other. They are the same fight. - Project Syndicate

Hugs, handshakes and back-slapping greeted Keir Starmer on his first international outing as Britain’s new prime minister at Nato this week, a warm welcome from several Western leaders who envy his big majority in parliament.Very much a new boy among his more seasoned peers, Starmer often looked bowled over, sometimes bewildered, by his first summit, but he used it to show off a new image for Britain, a stable country in contrast to its somewhat chaotic recent past.The timing of his landslide victory — earlier than expected after predecessor Rishi Sunak set a July date — means Starmer can use the Nato summit and next week’s European Political Community meeting to build ties with world leaders.He will stress his foreign policy goals: resetting relations with the European Union after years of Brexit rancour, reclaiming Britain’s leading role in tackling climate change and building ties with the Global South.“It’s a fantastic opportunity to be here within the first week of having formed a Labour government..., talking to our allies and being absolutely clear about our commitment to Nato,” he told GB News.“So it’s a good early opportunity for me to set out my priorities, to...engage with other international leaders.” Still in a honeymoon period at home, Starmer can project a sense of stability not enjoyed by several leaders at Nato.With US President Joe Biden facing calls to end his re-election campaign, French leader Emmanuel Macron’s early election gamble ending in a hung parliament and Germany’s Olaf Scholz under pressure from the far right, Starmer is in an enviable position at the start of his five-year term.Despite that he will not have unlimited room for manoeuvre. His pledge to keep a tight grip on public finances means he faced questions over when defence spending would reach 2.5% of GDP, and any attempt to improve trade ties with Europe could entail trade-offs over sovereignty, potentially galvanising his shattered political opposition who supported Brexit.The possible election in the US of Donald Trump would also pose new diplomatic challenges for the centre-left leader.On Ukraine, Starmer offered continuity.Britain has long been one of the leading supporters of Kyiv since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February, 2022, and he recommitted to the former Conservative government’s military and financial aid pledges, albeit to speed them up.His foreign minister, David Lammy, toured Germany, Poland and Sweden over the weekend to emphasise their shared support for Ukraine, and Defence Secretary John Healey headed quickly to Kyiv to tell President Volodymyr Zelensky the Labour government would have an “ironclad” commitment to supporting Ukraine.In a meeting with Zelensky in Washington, where the two hugged warmly, Starmer told the Ukrainian leader: “There’s a change of government but no change of approach.” It was no surprise that his first bilateral meeting at Nato was with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a man who the Labour Party turned to for election advice after the German leader changed his centre-left SDP’s election fortunes in 2021.It was a sign that Britain’s Labour government wants to move fast in resetting relations with the EU after years of rows sparked by the 2016 referendum, promising to improve trading rules over what it describes as the “botched deal” secured by former prime minister Boris Johnson.The government is likely to use its strength in security and defence as one way to rebuild bridges with Europe. A nuclear power with strong intelligence capabilities and a member of the “Five Eyes” alliance, Britain also boasts strong defence companies in the likes of BAE.“I’ve been clear with international leaders here that we do want to reset the relationship with individual countries, whether they’re EU or not,” Starmer told GB News.After Nato he will switch his focus to the July 18 meeting of the European Political Community, a group of more than 40 European states formed in 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where he hopes to press his plan to secure a security pact with the EU.In Washington, he had a “brush by” with Macron, who pulled him into a meeting room for a congenial chat, but Starmer’s team said he was focusing on leaders he would not see at the EPC.The warm welcome is likely to have provided a brief distraction from difficult domestic issues, including over Gaza after he lost votes among some left-wing and Muslim voters, and with prisons which will pose an almost immediate threat as they become close to being completely full.For one source travelling with the Ukrainian delegation, it was a relief to see Starmer follow in the steps of Sunak and Johnson who pledged staunch support. But they accepted that politics always raises its head eventually.“Britain is like a giant airship, it would take a lot to turn its direction (on Ukraine),” the source said on condition of anonymity.“The UK is one of our biggest supporters but we shall see... Give it a bit of time to see if they start fighting among themselves.” – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron once shook up Nato by declaring it was suffering “brain death”. But his days of such boldness on the international stage may be slipping away after his gamble on a snap election produced political paralysis at home.At Nato’s Washington summit, allies have been left wondering how much of a role Paris can play in the transatlantic alliance in the years ahead, adding to uncertainty stemming from US President Joe Biden’s faltering re-election bid and a possible return of Nato sceptic Donald Trump to the White House.“We all know that wherever in the world, foreign policy begins at home and if at home you have troubles, they will of course affect or impact one way or another your foreign policy abroad,” said a European Union diplomat on the summit sidelines.Macron has kept a low media profile at the summit, but at a news conference said he had reassured allies, who he said were more relieved than worried by the election result.Behind the scenes, he was keen to tell them that the result of Sunday’s parliamentary election in France was not as bad as had been feared, as either the far-right nor far-left won an overall majority.Either outcome would have posed the most severe challenges for Macron’s foreign policy with both blocs deemed more pro-Russian and less Nato-friendly. But the election has left France in limbo — with three blocs short of a majority and no new government in sight.“I confirmed to all my partners, allies that France would have continuity in its international commitments be it in Europe, the alliance and the support for Ukraine because the political forces that constitute a majority in the parliament support that,” he said, referring to lawmakers in his party as well as the centre-left and centre-right.Once a government is in place, it is likely Macron will have a prime minister more in tune with his thinking internationally even if he will not have a free hand on foreign policy like in the past.Three European officials said Macron had taken the time in the North Atlantic Council — the main political decision-making body within Nato — to underscore his message and reaffirm France’s support for Ukraine.That was in stark contrast to five years ago in the run-up to Nato’s 70th anniversary, when he stole the headlines after calling the alliance “brain dead” and urging it to wake up after becoming too focused on budget issues instead of evolving geopolitics.Publicly, other Nato leaders played down France’s political troubles.“It is up to the politicians to find solutions and to make something out if it,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters. “I’m quite confident.” Officials said Scholz had joked with Macron about the idiosyncrasies of creating and working within a coalition — a persistent headache for the German leader and something that Macron will need to learn in the coming months.Keen to show Paris is still active internationally, Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu signed an agreement on the summit sidelines with his German, Italian and Polish counterparts to develop long-range cruise missile capabilities.“It is an alliance that brings together democracies. So, by definition, in a democracy, faces can change,” Lecornu said of Nato when asked whether Macron and France had been weakened.But the after-effects of Sunday’s election were evident at the summit. Macron was the last leader to arrive, missing a Nato 75th anniversary dinner. He had already scaled back his trip to just 36 hours, having dropped plans to add a visit to Canada.His foreign minister, Stephane Sejourne, did not accompany him, focusing on his role as the head of Macron’s political party back in Paris. Sejourne was not obliged to attend the summit but many other foreign ministers were present.Several French diplomats said they had lacked instructions in the run-up to the Nato summit and were feeling directionless.Unlike many other leaders at the Nato gathering and in a marked contrast to his appearance at the G7 summit in Bari a few weeks ago, Macron kept his public words to a minimum.“Allies. United and in solidarity against Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine. A crucial moment for Europe’s security and peace,” he posted on X.A Ukrainian diplomat said “a worst-case scenario” for Macron and Kyiv had been avoided in the French election.“Yes, he will have his wings clipped and he may not be able to govern, but we have our fingers crossed,” the diplomat said.But European officials said that he could not be written off yet and would still be in charge of defence and foreign policy.With neither the far-right nor far-left winning a majority, in the immediate term the existing government remains in place while negotiations to create some form of coalition to govern take place.The most likely scenario is a prime minister from the centre-left or centre-right that would not oppose his Ukraine policy or Nato.That could enable him to move forward on some initiatives such as sending Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine or creating a coalition of countries to send military trainers there. But there is now at least a question mark over those ideas. — Reuters

After a shock defeat in France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will double down on weeding out problematic candidates to counter successful efforts by mainstream parties to block the far-right from power.Polls had suggested the RN would secure the most seats in the snap two-round election, which French President Emmanuel Macron called after Le Pen’s party was the clear victor of June’s European parliamentary vote. Yet the RN ultimately placed third, with its hopes of forming France’s first far-right government since World War II thwarted by centrist and left-wing parties who withdrew about 200 third-placed candidates to unify the anti-RN vote. The strategy, known as the “republican front”, is a feature of French political life and has been used for decades to block the RN from power.RN officials and lawmakers who spoke to Reuters believe the party can overcome this electoral barricade if it professionalizes further, following a path laid out by Le Pen after she lost the 2017 presidential election to Macron. That means greater screening of potential candidates and tougher party discipline to avoid costly gaffes, they said.In the run-up to the vote, media reports unveiled an RN candidate who had been photographed in a Nazi cap, and another who sought to defend against the party’s history of racism and antisemitism by saying she had a Jewish eye doctor and Muslim dentist. After the vote, a newly elected RN lawmaker was ejected from the party’s parliamentary group for saying French Arabs had no place in government.“We have to avoid these casting errors that cost us dearly and clearly hurt us,” said Julien Masson, an RN official in Brittany.Heads have already begun to roll, with Gilles Pennelle, a member of the European Parliament, stepping down from his role as the RN executive in charge of overseeing candidate lists.“He was blamed for the candidates who were not good, who were not up to the level,” Masson said.Pennelle did not respond to requests for comment.Two RN lawmakers told Reuters there would be more media training to avoid a repeat of embarrassing interviews in which candidates appeared amateurish.RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said the party was judged by an unfair standard, but acknowledged it needed to do better.“You always have to improve,” he told Reuters, adding that Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would soon announce proposals to address “organisational problems.” Christophe Gervasi, who conducts private polling for the RN, said that as well as inexperienced and ill-disciplined recruits, the party’s tendency to be vague and inconsistent on policy proposals had dented its credibility.The party pledges to cut immigration, reduce fuel costs and be tougher on crime, common themes among populist far-right parties, but has dropped previous positions questioning EU and Nato membership .Gervasi said it would be no easy task for the RN to overcome the republican front.“There are endemic structural weaknesses that persist,” he said. “The system is defending itself against the RN’s accession to power.” Patrick Weil, a historian of the far-right, said he doubted that an RN deep-clean would be enough for it to bulldoze the republican front. Much would depend on how the future government pans out and who stands in the 2027 election, in which Le Pen is likely to make her fourth attempt at the presidency.“If someone popular runs, Marine le Pen will be beaten. If someone very unpopular runs, she will be elected,” he said.Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, of BVA Xsight pollsters, said the surprising solidity of the republican front, which many had predicted to crumble in this election, underlined lingering discomfort with the far-right.“The RN is undoubtedly still a little scary,” she said. “Its demonisation is not over.”Sunday’s result was not a complete disaster for the RN, which nearly doubled its seats in the National Assembly. The party scooped up nearly a third of the popular vote, a record high for the RN in parliamentary elections.The party can now watch from the opposition benches as centrist and leftist parties with no tradition of coalition-building guide France through a period of political instability.That could benefit the RN ahead of a 2027 election.“The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time,” Le Pen said on Sunday. “Our victory is only delayed.” The day after the vote, Bardella acknowledged the party had made mistakes, including on the choice of some of its candidates, but said the seeds of victory had been sown.Towns like Nangis, located about 75km southeast of Paris in the Brie agricultural plain, provide hope for the RN.The constituency was in the hands of the mainstream, conservative right for 66 years until the RN finally wrested it away.Isabelle Martin, a 52-year-old administrative worker, was among locals who voted for the RN. She was disappointed mainstream parties combined to stop the RN from winning power at the national level, an arrangement she described as “les magouilles”, or dirty deals. But she predicted the resulting political chaos would benefit the RN.“The others have three years to prove that they can do something good,” Martin said. “If they haven’t pulled it off by 2027 then maybe (the RN) have a chance.” — Reuters

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Lashed by torrential rains and scorched by brutal heatwaves, Dhaka’s workers — from rickshaw drivers to those working in clothes factories — are exposed more than most to the reality of the climate emergency.Bangladesh’s capital, one of the world’s most congested and polluted mega-cities, is home to around 10mn people, including thousands who have fled floods and droughts in other parts of a country that is on the frontline of climate change.Managing these huge numbers while also climate-proofing the riverside city is a huge challenge but it is an urgent one that city authorities are hoping to address with their first climate action plan, which was launched in May.“Transforming Dhaka was critical towards making Bangladesh green and climate-resilient,” said Environment Minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury at the launch.The plan will serve as a roadmap to enable the city to become carbon-neutral by 2050 and includes strategies to help it cope with ever more frequent floods and heatwaves.It includes proposals to switch to renewable energy sources, introduce electric vehicles, increase green spaces, restore natural drainage systems, establish early flood warning systems and ensure a secure water supply by 2030.Dhaka is just the latest city in the region to seek to face the climate challenge head-on.Asia was the world’s most disaster-hit region from climate hazards in 2023, including floods, storms and heatwaves, and the region is also warming faster than other areas, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.With around 704mn people living in urban areas in South Asia, the race is on to equip cities for a hotter, more dangerous future.First of all, cities must set baselines for greenhouse gas emissions and risks so that they can measure progress over time, said Shruti Narayan, managing director at the C40 Cities network, a global network of cities working on climate action.“Data-driven targets and monitoring is critical to turning the plans into reality,” Narayan told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.The C40 platform helps cities align their climate plans with the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).More than 60 cities have announced such plans under the platform so far, including some of Asia’s biggest urban areas.The Indian cities of Mumbai, Chennai and Bengaluru have already adopted climate plans and Karachi in Pakistan is drawing up its own blueprint.The stakes are high: the Asian Development Bank says that unless planet-heating emissions are cut, the collective economy of six countries — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka — could shrink by up to 1.8% every year by 2050 and 8.8% by 2100, on average.Already, the livelihoods of more than 200mn people in these countries are threatened by the rapid loss of snow cover in the Himalayas and rising sea levels, according to the ADB.Cities consume two-thirds of the world’s energy and house 50% of the global population. More than 10,000 cities have committed to cutting emissions and adapting to climate hazards.As part of its climate plan, Dhaka’s twin municipalities — north and south — established emissions inventories for 2021-22 by identifying most polluting sectors and then set a target of cutting 70% of emissions by 2050.One challenge is financing the required changes; cities in the Global South have long complained about richer countries not paying their fair share to cover the costs of climate change.This year’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan is expected to focus on setting a goal for the levels of climate finance that will be needed from 2025 onwards to help poorer nations curb emissions, adapt to worsening extreme weather and higher seas, and respond to unavoidable climate “loss and damage”.In the meantime, some cities in the Global South have invested in innovative digital tools, like digital twins, to build climate resilience, while others scramble for resources.Mumbai — the richest municipality in India with an annual budget of nearly INR600bn ($7.2bn) in 2024-25 — was able to allocate around INR100bn ($1.2bn) for various climate actions like expanding tree cover, reviving urban parks, and managing floods.Mumbai’s climate allocation dwarfs the entire budget of northern Dhaka — 53bn taka ($450.3mn) in 2023-24 — which means the resource-strapped city must prioritise cheaper actions, said Md Sirajul Islam, chief town planner of Dhaka South City Corporation.Jaya Dhindaw, head of the South Asian chapter of the World Resources Institute (WRI) that developed the climate plans for several Indian cities, said realistic, achievable actions help set the pace for progress.For example, in early June, Bengaluru’s deputy chief minister announced extended opening hours for urban parks to provide shade for the city’s people.“With low-hanging actions like these, you can drive cities’ confidence that climate actions are doable projects,” Dhindaw said.However, Dhaka will need funding to raise the share of renewable power to 85%, treat a massive amount of organic waste to stem methane emissions, and ensure that 95% of vehicles are electric.The city might need to call on global donors, said Jubaer Rashid, the Bangladesh country representative of ICLEI — Local Governments for Sustainability, a global network of local and national governments.“We will work closely with city officials to help them develop proposals for fundraising,” said Rashid, who worked with Dhaka’s municipalities on their climate plans.Urban planners and environmental activists said that another priority must be pushing back against the poor planning that has exacerbated problems caused by the changing climate.For example, in the northern part of Dhaka, green cover has shrunk by 66% in last three decades alone with canals and fields destroyed to make space for densely populated residential zones.The city’s rapid, unplanned growth has choked rivers like the Buriganga and blocked drains causing worse flooding, said urban planner Mehedi Ahsan, who represents the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in Bangladesh.The climate action plan aims to restore the canals and expand green spaces to cover 25% of the city by 2050.But with up to 2,000 people arriving in northern Dhaka every day, including many fleeing floods and droughts in other parts of the country, time is not on the authorities’ side.“The place we got ourselves into is not created by the climate crisis alone but the city climate plan provides us a hitch to shift away from a predatory pattern of building cities to protecting our ecology as we imagine a different future,” said Ahsan. — Thomson Reuters Foundation

A shock election win for France’s leftist alliance has reinforced wariness among investors who had already braced for the risk of political deadlock and a policy paralysis that’s unlikely to improve the country’s creaking public finances.The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats in Sunday’s election, but fell far short of an absolute majority, a big surprise after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) led opinion polls.France, at the centre of the euro project and the bloc’s second biggest economy, still faces a hung parliament and taxing negotiations to form a government as markets had already anticipated – just with the left in pole position, rather than the far-right.The risk premium, or spread, for holding France’s debt over Germany’s was at 65 basis points on Monday, a touch lower from Friday. It remains below the 12-year high hit in June at 85 bps.Still, that gap is not expected to tighten again rapidly with concern fixed on what France’s new political climate means for its stretched public finances that have left it facing European Union disciplinary measures.Debt stood at 110.6% of output in 2023.“For any budget to be passed in the new assembly, probably at the margin some fiscal loosening is required to get a compromise,” said Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, which manages $1.7tn in assets.Market relief proved tentative on Monday. France’s main CAC 40 stocks index, down 3.7% since Macron called the election, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday then gave up all its gain.Shares in France’s three biggest lenders – BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole – which have dropped as much as 9.8% since June 9, also reversed earlier gains and were down 0.4%-1.2%.Banks had been hard hit in the run-up to the vote on concerns that higher political uncertainty would translate into increased economic risks and fears of possible windfall taxes.With the left more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping in second place, a hung parliament was still seen as the best outcome for investors in French assets, with it expected to limit the left’s spending plans and avert a potential budget-driven market crisis.The NFP’s plans include scrapping Macron’s pension reform raising the minimum wage and capping the prices of key goods.It says the costs of its programme would be offset by measures including tax increases.But some investors had deemed an NFP absolute majority a bigger threat to markets than the RN, as the left alliance has said it doesn’t plan to reduce France’s high budget deficit.“When you look at the composition of the parliament, the bar for the far-left to start doing anything market unfriendly is very, very high,” said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, noting that the more moderate Socialists won a sizeable share of the NFP seats.Possibilities for a new government include the NFP forming a minority government, Macron peeling off Socialists and Greens from the NFP to isolate Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left France Unbowed for a coalition with his own bloc, or a technocratic government.Still, a hung parliament was not seen by investors as good news for France’s public finances and investors expected the country’s budget deficit — at 5.5% of output last year — to stay elevated.Melenchon said the NFP would execute its programme, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Macron’s pension reform must be cancelled.S&P Global Ratings warned on Monday that France’s credit rating, which it recently downgraded, would come under pressure if economic growth falls short of projections or the budget deficit cannot be reduced.Analysts do not expect the French/German bond spread to return to the roughly 50 bps level seen before Macron called the election.“To be able to step (back into) French debt, will mean that we have guarantees from the government that they are taking good decisions to restore the fiscal and budgetary balances,” said Matthieu de Clermont, head of insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors.“I’m not sure we’ll get that any time soon.”Some investors said the French-German spread could widen again if uncertainty drags on, raising the cost for France to borrow on international bond markets relative to its neighbours, potentially increasing pressure on the budget.Investors remained cautious on French assets as they said it was too early to gauge what a new government would look like. The risk of another election in a year’s time is not ruled out. — Reuters

The planet known as HD 189733b, discovered in 2005, already had a reputation as a rather extreme place, a scorching hot gas giant a bit larger than Jupiter that is a striking cobalt blue colour and has molten glass rain that blows sideways in its fierce atmospheric winds. So how can you top that?Add hydrogen sulphide, the chemical compound behind the stench of rotten eggs. Researchers said on Monday new data from the James Webb Space Telescope is giving a fuller picture of HD 189733b, already among the most thoroughly studied exoplanets, as planets beyond our solar system are called. A trace amount of hydrogen sulphide was detected in its atmosphere, a first for any exoplanet.“Yes, the stinky smell would certainly add to its already infamous reputation. This is not a planet we humans want to visit, but a valuable target for furthering our understanding of planetary science,” said astrophysicist Guangwei Fu of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, lead author of the study published in the journal Nature.It is a type called a “hot Jupiter” — gas giants similar to the largest planet in our solar system, only much hotter owing to their close proximity to their host stars. This planet orbits 170 times closer to its host star than Jupiter does to the sun. It completes one orbit every two days as opposed to the 12 years Jupiter takes for one orbit of the sun.In fact, its orbit is 13 times nearer to its host star than our innermost planet Mercury is to the sun, leaving the temperature on the side of the planet facing the star at about 1,700 degrees Fahrenheit (930 degrees Celsius).“They are quite rare,” Fu said of hot Jupiters. “About less than one in 100 star systems have them.”This planet is located 64 light-years from Earth, considered in our neighbourhood within the Milky Way galaxy, in the constellation Vulpecula. A light-year is the distance light travels in a year, 5.9tn miles.“The close distance makes it bright and easy for detailed studies. For example, the hydrogen sulphide detection reported here would be much more challenging to make on other faraway planets,” Fu said.The star it orbits is smaller and cooler than the sun, and only about a third as luminous. That star is part of a binary system, meaning it is gravitationally bound to another star.Webb, which became operational in 2022, observes a wider wavelength range than earlier space telescopes, allowing for more thorough examinations of exoplanet atmospheres.“Our research finds that HD 189733b is more similar to Jupiter than previously known,” Arizona State University astrophysicist and study co-author Luis Welbanks said. “This planet is very much like Jupiter, but just hotter.”Jupiter, too, has trace amounts of hydrogen sulphide in its atmosphere. This planet is about 10% larger than Jupiter in diameter and mass.In addition to detecting hydrogen sulphide, a sulphur-containing molecule, Webb observations showed that this planet has water and carbon dioxide in its atmosphere, as earlier data also indicated.“With these three molecules, we are able to count the amount of oxygen, carbon and sulphur the planet has, giving us an opportunity to understand how the planet may have formed and whether it is different or not to the planets in our solar system,” Welbanks said.The Webb observations also ruled out the presence of methane in the planet’s atmosphere.“Understanding the composition of this and other exoplanets allows us to understand how unique our own solar system is and helps us place our existence in context,” Welbanks added.“While we are not searching for life on HD 189733b — it is too hot, made up mostly of hydrogen and helium, it’s not like Earth, et cetera — understanding its atmosphere allows us to understand how physics and chemistry behave under different environments and to begin to put together the ‘recipe’ for forming planets.”

Not content with disturbing the peace in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-un. As troubling to China’s leaders as it is to Western officials, the deal is shaking up the geopolitics of Northeast Asia and sending reverberations around the world.Despite the strategic unease that Putin has provoked, the West must be careful neither to overestimate nor underestimate the treaty’s importance. The reasons for Putin’s recent trip to Pyongyang – his first visit in 24 years – were deeply pragmatic. Russia urgently needs North Korean ammunition, weapons, and labourers to continue waging its war against Ukraine; and North Korea, as isolated as ever, longs for diplomatic support, as well as energy, food, cash, and sensitive military technologies of the kind that only the Kremlin can provide.For Kim, Russian military technologies are particularly important, because they could enable North Korean nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to survive re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere and hit any target in the world without being intercepted by missile-defence systems. Moreover, if North Korea can produce quiet nuclear submarines with Russia’s help, they would pose a major security risk not just to South Korea and Japan, but also to the United States.If Russia does provide such sensitive technologies to North Korea, it will upend the military balance on the Korean Peninsula and across Northeast Asia. But a major limitation might prevent Russia from doing so: the incongruity between China’s global strategy and those of Russia and North Korea.China’s highest strategic priority is winning the global competition against the US. Its leaders want to replace the US-led unipolar international system with a Chinese-dominated multipolar arrangement, and have tried to drive wedges between the US and its allies, hoping to pull some into its own orbit. China has refrained from providing direct military assistance to Russia, despite their “no-limits” partnership, precisely because it wants to avoid driving European countries fully into America’s arms.Similarly, China has been pursuing more amiable diplomatic relations with South Korea, including by participating in a trilateral South Korea-Japan-China summit in Seoul in May, where it voiced its commitment to the “denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.” Then, the day before Russia and North Korea concluded their new treaty, China and South Korea held a 2+2 high-level diplomatic security dialogue in Seoul.China has long pursued stability on the Korean Peninsula, mainly because it wants North Korea to serve as a buffer between it and the South Korean and US troops stationed just south of the demilitarised zone. By contrast, Russia’s most urgent concern is winning the war it started.In his desperation, Putin has seemed willing to push all other concerns to the back burner. But since his new agreement with Kim is merely a marriage of convenience, it could begin to falter as soon as the war in Ukraine ends. And since Donald Trump has declared that he would end the war on his first day in office (presumably by giving Putin whatever he wants), that moment might not be too far off.In the meantime, Kim will be desperate to get his hands on the highly sensitive Russian military technologies he craves. His primary goal is to establish North Korea as a de facto nuclear state that the international community will just have to accept.Of course, if Russia does succumb to North Korean pressure and gives Kim the technologies he wants, the US-Japanese-South Korean partnership will grow stronger. There would be more frequent joint military exercises, and more US strategic assets allocated to the peninsula. South Korean public opinion might also shift further toward supporting a domestic nuclear weapons programme or redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons on South Korean territory. These developments would be counter to China’s strategic interests.Despite appearing to be sidelined from the Russia-North Korea strategic marriage, China holds significant leverage over both smaller powers. China’s economy is about nine times larger than Russia’s and more than a thousand times the size of North Korea’s. Russia probably could not continue fighting in Ukraine if China stopped purchasing Russian energy exports or stopped providing dual-use materials (which have both civilian and military applications, exempting them from sanctions). Likewise, the North Korean economy simply cannot survive without Chinese food, energy, and trade.Given these dynamics, the West should focus on leveraging the strategic incongruence between China, Russia, and North Korea. For the US, that means maintaining diplomatic engagement with China and deterrence vis-à-vis Russia. If there is confirmation that Russia has indeed provided sensitive military technologies to North Korea, the US, South Korea, and Japan must take highly visible steps toward strengthening their security co-operation and creating more direct linkages between East Asia and Nato.Chinese and US strategic interests overlap far more on the Korean Peninsula than they do in Ukraine or the Middle East. Both want stability in the region, which suggests that diplomacy toward that end has a real chance of success if both countries make the effort. — Project SyndicateYoon Young-kwan, a former minister of foreign affairs of the Republic of Korea, is Chairman of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

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Estelle knew she had to flee Myanmar. The military junta had just announced it would introduce conscription to bolster its forces against myriad armed groups challenging its power, and she was terrified she would be forced to fight.The former government worker, whose name has been changed to protect her identity, is among thousands of people who have decided to leave their homes since the mandatory military service law was announced in February, and then came into effect in April.Some people have risked their lives to trek through jungles and ford rivers, crossing into neighbouring countries without documentation because the military has made it increasingly difficult to leave through formal channels.Others have fled to areas under the control of armed groups fighting against the military, or have joined these groups themselves.The mass exodus is taking place as the military regime faces its most serious crisis since it took power in a 2021 coup, which sparked widespread protests. The street demonstrations, which were met with a brutal crackdown, morphed into an armed resistance movement that has seen newer anti-coup forces join with many of Myanmar’s autonomy-seeking ethnic armed groups, posing the most significant challenge to the military in decades.The UN Human Rights Office says more than 5,000 people have been killed by the military since the coup, including more than 1,000 women. Around 3 million people have been displaced. Estelle had to sneak out of the country because she had joined a countrywide Civil Disobedience Movement after the coup and faced international travel restrictions as a result.She and a friend paid the equivalent of around $280 each in Myanmar’s kyat currency to travel by car from the city of Mawlamyine to the border with Thailand and then hired a smuggler to take them across the Moei River.“It was just the two of us girls travelling with a man we didn’t know,” Estelle said. “We were scared we would be arrested or trafficked.”But they took the risk anyway despite the fact that, at 36, Estelle falls outside the age range for conscription. A few days after its initial announcement, the junta also pledged to exempt women for the time being.But Estelle is not going back.“That’s just words,” she said. “We never know when the time will come when they will make difficulties for us.”The junta has been accused by Western governments of systematic atrocities, including executions and torture, and excessive use of air strikes and artillery in civilian areas. It has dismissed that as misinformation and says it is targeting “terrorists”.The junta said it planned to call up 5,000 people by the end of April and 60,000 by the end of the year. Men aged 18-35 and women aged 18 to 27 are eligible, with the age limit extending to 45 for men and 35 for women in the case of specialists like doctors.In a report published in July, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said women’s rights organisations had identified increasing reports of the trafficking of women and girls following the enactment of the conscription law.“Women are using dangerous channels to flee the country amid fears of conscription, putting them at high risk of trafficking and other forms of exploitation. Conscription exemptions for married women also raise the risk of early and forced marriage for girls and women,” Andrews wrote.For Catherine, whose name has also been changed for security reasons, the writing is on the wall.“The military is weak, so it’s calling (up) young people. It’s not OK for us, and we don’t accept it,” the 23-year-old florist and office worker said in a telephone interview from the northern city of Myitkyina.“Military conscription laws in other countries are designed to protect and defend their nations against external threats, but in our country, this law is intended to force us to kill our own people.”Catherine and her friends attempt to make light of the situation, but they are worried.“We joke that the hands that once held flowers will hold guns now,” she said. “Although we are joking, we feel deeply concerned and disappointed that it has come to this situation.”Catherine is trying to get a passport but is struggling as the demand for passports has surged since February. The military call-up comes on top of an economic crisis that has sent the currency spiralling lower and caused unemployment to surge. The World Bank says women have been particularly hard hit by the economic downturn that followed the Covid pandemic and the coup.Moon Nay Li, joint general secretary for advocacy group the Women’s League of Burma, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation that displaced women could be pushed into early or forced marriage, and also face heightened risks of domestic violence.“There is no safe place for women and girls...they have to survive in risky situations,” she said.In his report, UN Special Rapporteur Andrews said women and girls were acutely vulnerable to discrimination, violence, and exploitation since the coup. Women interviewed by the Thomson Reuters Foundation said a sense of unease has seeped into their everyday lives.“Sometimes, I feel mentally exhausted,” said Catherine. “I’m scared to go out alone, even to get a coffee.”And in the past months, there have been signs that their exemption from military service may be coming to an end.Several media have said that local-level officials serving under the military’s administration were drawing up lists of women who were eligible to be called up to the army.The military has denied these claims - describing them as “fake news” — but an analysis of military pamphlets and pro-military media channels conducted by the Burma Affairs and Conflict Study (BACS) advocacy group found that women were likely to be included in the fifth batch of conscripts, due to be called up in August.Min Htet Aung, a lead researcher for BACS, said women would face unique risks if forced to serve.“The Myanmar military is an organisation dominated by patriarchy and male chauvinism. Consequently, women who join the military may face discrimination and sexual abuse,” he said in an emailed response to questions.Women were at the forefront of resistance to the 2021 coup and have also joined armed groups fighting the military. Around one-fifth of the 20,000 political prisoners in Myanmar are female, according to a local rights group.Women from the Rohingya, a mostly Muslim minority from Myanmar’s Rakhine State, have also faced fresh hardships after years of abuses. In 2017, a violent military crackdown against the Rohingya sent 730,000 people fleeing to Bangladesh. The United Nations described the action as genocidal in intent.Although Rohingya are not eligible for conscription under the law because they are denied citizenship, the military has conscripted more than 1,000 Rohingya men and boys since February using methods including abduction, threats and false promises of citizenship, according to a Human Rights Watch report.And this has had an effect on women and the economic welfare of their households.“Families are worried... Women don’t want their husbands to go,” said Sofia, a Rohingya women’s protection specialist in Rakhine State, who also used a pseudonym for security reasons.On May 3, the military said men of conscription age would no longer be allowed to seek employment abroad, and those avoiding conscription would face three years in jail.Min Htet Aung said the army was snatching people from their homes, roadside checkpoints, tea shops and bars and sometimes soldiers threatened the parents of people who had fled, a tactic it also uses against opponents.“The junta propagates the notion that they only recruit volunteers. However, in reality, few people willingly enlist. Most are recruited by force,” said Min Htet Aung.The International Organisation for Migration in Thailand said it had seen a steady increase in people crossing the border from Myanmar, including a nearly 30% increase between January and February. Women were more likely than men to enter without official documentation, it added. But it’s not just military conscription that some women have to fear.In the eastern Shan State, at least three ethnic armed groups have announced mandatory service policies in recent months and two conscript women.Fear of being conscripted into an ethnic armed group drove 16-year-old Christine, who also did not give her real name for security reasons, from her home in Lashio township in February after one of the armed groups there told her grandmother that Christine and her siblings would have to serve in its forces.They fled the next day and Christine headed to Malaysia. She described hiding in the back of a cargo truck and walking through mountains at night. She is now in Kuala Lumpur where she is terrified of being arrested by immigration officials.“I don’t have many difficulties as long as I don’t leave my room,” she said. “It’s not safe around here.”Estelle also found it hard to get by in Thailand because she did not enter legally. But she has no intention of going home while the junta remains in power.“I hope the revolution will succeed quickly and that I can return home quickly.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation

When floods hit the eastern Australian town of Lismore two years ago, Adam Bailey lost all the historic collections from his antique store, including rare photos of the Dardanelles taken during World War One. Now, when it rains at night, he can’t sleep. If he wants to insure his new store and its contents at a nearby location, he needs to fork out almost A$80,000 ($53,272.00) — peace of mind he says he cannot afford. “I have got no insurance at all — if the flood was to come again that would be it for me,” said Bailey, a Lismore resident since 1988 who now lives upstairs from his new store. The deadly floods knocked 30% off the prices of low-lying properties in Lismore, a town of 44,000, and reflect the growing risks climate-related disasters pose to hot real estate markets Down Under as dwellings and businesses in affected areas become harder to insure. Policymakers, researchers and property experts warn climate change is a risk that home buyers in Australia and New Zealand have not priced in as they pursue lifestyles near the water or bushland or seek simply to get onto the property ladder. Natural disasters could wipe about A$800bn off Australia’s housing market by 2030 or about 6.7% of the total value, climate risk specialist XDI said in data shared with Reuters. In New Zealand, around 20% of houses are on floodplains, according to research by Climate Sigma. “Can the economy ride that out? Maybe. Will certain communities suffer more than others? Yes. So you might have very significant community impacts,” said Karl Mallon, director of science and technology at XDI. “When these events come through, they affect businesses and they affect the wider economy.” While climate change is a growing risk for real estate worldwide, Australia’s and New Zealand’s housing obsessions have led to record prices and personal wealth piling into sprawling homes built near waterways and coastlines, amplifying the threat to the economy, banks and the people. Among OECD nations, Australians have the second-highest amount of wealth in real estate in mean US dollar terms while New Zealand also ranks above average. For now, there are few signs of systemic problems in the housing economy because of climate risks. However, pockets of pain are springing up, such as Lismore, where land prices halved and locals told Reuters many people have left town with flood cover increasingly out of reach. Across the Tasman Sea, the coastal settlement of Haumoana near some of New Zealand’s best wineries on the east coast of the North Island is one of the first communities to bear the brunt of inundation. Earlier this year, a beachfront property was listed for sale with a starting bid of NZ$1. It sold for NZ$100,000 ($61,310.00), less than half its local government value, in part because the house on the site was pulled down. Research by Australian property website Domain showed each increase in bushfire risk rating decreased a home’s value by 2%, while each percentage point rise in the chance of a 50-centimetre flood led to an 0.8% drop in the property’s value. Insurance premiums for climate risk are reaching a point where some homeowners can no longer afford to protect their homes, industry experts say. In an ongoing government inquiry, top insurer Allianz Australia revealed about 74% of customers with the highest flood rating did not purchase flood cover last year, up from 63% before. For some highly exposed communities, such as the river regions around Lismore, 90% had no flood cover. Climate Council expects 4% of Australian properties will be uninsurable by 2030. In the first quarter of the year, insurance premiums surged 16.4% — the biggest annual increase in 23 years. In New Zealand, around 1,000 properties are uninsurable and being bought by authorities following major floods in 2023. Insurance premiums have doubled in the past 10 years due to growing climate risk and high construction costs, Kerry Watt, director of financial stability assessment and strategy at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. “What we would like people to do is to start to take more notice of the specific risks to the properties they might be buying,” Watt said. To be sure, quantifying the exact impact of natural disaster risk on property prices is obscured by other factors, chiefly demand and mortgage rates. — Reuters

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