Opinion

The European Union’s Green Deal is one of the bloc’s most successful and transformational policy frameworks, offering a clear path toward full sustainability by mid-century. But emerging challenges, such as an increasingly adversarial geopolitical landscape and rapidly escalating climate and biodiversity crises, call for recalibrating the Green Deal to ensure it can achieve its goals.There are three ways to strengthen the framework. The first is to align the fight against climate change with the effort to make the EU more competitive. Europe’s energy prices, which have skyrocketed to unsustainable levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are the root cause of the EU’s declining competitiveness. The invasion and subsequent disruption of Russian natural-gas supplies showed that the bloc’s continued dependence on fossil fuels both exacerbates climate change and poses an immediate risk to Europe’s economic future. Notably, EU member states currently pay twice as much for natural gas as the US and other countries do.To remain competitive, European countries must accelerate the decarbonisation of their energy systems. The success of the EU’s RePowerEU plan, which rapidly reduced Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, shows that this is feasible. But without taking meaningful steps to reduce its reliance on large quantities of oil and liquefied natural gas, the EU risks achieving only partial decarbonisation, leaving it exposed to volatile energy prices.By launching an EU-wide, decade-long effort to decarbonise Europe’s energy systems and industries, the bloc’s competitiveness could be significantly improved. Building on the EU’s Fit for 55 initiative, especially the Emissions Trading System (ETS), would enable policymakers to establish the necessary regulatory and investment frameworks to accelerate the clean-energy transition while navigating the turbulent energy market in the coming years.To be sure, this effort would require the EU’s 27 member states to overcome their preference for maintaining separate industrial policies. Under a Green Deal 2.0, member states’ political and financial power could be consolidated into a single European industrial transition plan.For this transition plan to work, it must be extended to regions like the Mediterranean and Ukraine, which are crucial to providing sufficient amounts of low-carbon energy and raw materials. Regional energy co-operation could also help to address two other major challenges facing the EU: migration and Ukraine’s accession.The second way to strengthen the European Green Deal is to foster a just transition to a low-carbon economy. In addition to accelerating the clean-energy shift, policymakers must take measures to ensure that no one is left behind, especially amid high inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.So far, the European Green Deal has successfully relied on redistributive mechanisms, such as income support and subsidies, to mitigate the higher inequality that typically accompanies economic transformations. But redistribution is not enough to ensure a just energy transition. A Green Deal 2.0 must emphasise solidarity and implement radical reforms in the housing and energy markets to enable low-income households and small and medium-size enterprises to participate fully in a rapidly decarbonising economy.Pre-distributive policy instruments, such as education, job training, urban planning, and public transport, must play a central role in the next phase of Europe’s energy transition. After all, the European Green Deal is not just about income and wealth redistribution but also about the fair distribution of hope, opportunity, and well-being.Lastly, the EU must reaffirm its commitment to biodiversity. The Green Deal’s biodiversity framework has faced significant setbacks over the past few months, as increased fears of a farmers’ revolt impelled the European Commission to cancel or delay several regulations and provisions. Although the damage to the EU’s overall climate objectives has been limited, the ease with which essential measures were scrapped underscores the framework’s insufficient focus on biodiversity, especially compared to its climate and energy components.The Green Deal’s energy framework has not faced similar challenges, even amid rising living and capital costs. This is because the energy transition offers tangible economic benefits to society, businesses, and households, thanks to the ETS’s effective carbon-pricing mechanism. By contrast, preserving biodiversity lacks such an economic rationale and relies instead on limited political will.But there is a strong economic argument for biodiversity. Simply put, the current way to monetise a tree is to cut it down and sell it. By assigning a monetary value to the carbon content stored by trees through the ETS, a Green Deal 2.0 could make afforestation profitable.A thriving environment can play a pivotal role in climate mitigation and adaptation, and it should be valued accordingly. To this end, the European Commission is developing an ETS-type instrument for the land-use sectors using its Carbon Removal Certification framework, which a Green Deal 2.0 could facilitate. Once we recognise that preserving biodiversity is not just a moral and health imperative but also a smart business strategy, we will be able to start moving in the right direction. – Project SyndicateFrans Timmermans, a former executive vice president of the European Commission, is Co-Chair of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy.

Indian voters’ tepid endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaves a weakened mandate for business-friendly reforms and has foreign money managers thinking twice about unleashing another wave of investment in the world’s fastest-growing economy.Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a third term in government but without a majority of its own for the first time since sweeping to power a decade ago.India’s stock market weathered its heaviest selling since the onset of the pandemic as the votes were tallied and net foreign selling was a record $1.5bn on Tuesday. Stocks recovered some ground on Wednesday.With the party losing most ground in rural areas, investors say land and labour reforms, that had been expected to unlock value and growth, will probably fall by the wayside while leaders focus on shoring up rural support which had faltered.For global fund managers, who despite strong buying last year are generally underweight on India according to HSBC research, the uncertainty is reason enough for caution.“You have the feeling that while the government was really geared towards business, there are other parts of the country that felt left behind,” said Alessia Berardi, head of emerging macro strategy at Amundi Investment Institute — the research arm of Europe’s biggest asset manager.“So a more inclusive economy, a more efficient economy is important,” she said.In the market, stocks trading richly in anticipation of growth driven by infrastructure and manufacturing spending fell heaviest and those exposed to rural demand, such as Nestle India and in motorcycle maker Hero MotoCorp, rose.Bonds weakened as traders priced risks that welfare spending goes up and budget consolidation is delayed. The tightly-managed rupee skidded to a seven-week low.“Over the past decade, India has been rewarded with a valuation premium for government stability...some of that valuation premium came out today,” said Vikas Pershad, who manages India and Asia equities portfolios for M&G Investments.“I think priorities might shift a little in the short-term...so more benefits for the rural consumer, the rural working poor.”Investors say the election outcome — with Modi’s alliance winning 293 of 543 lower-house seats — is unlikely to derail this trajectory, nor is India’s broadly stable currency and attractive debt market likely to be unduly ruffled.“We’re still seeing strong growth coming from India...I think it’s a buying opportunity,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York.But few are talking about adding overall exposure and many are adjusting their portfolio following the result.Next year’s budget due in July is shaping as the next test of policy commitments, with expectations that India will use a recent windfall surplus from the central bank to reduce the deficit quicker below the targeted 5.1% for the year.“Typically the budget is used to announce the five-year policies, so we should get a clearer idea of what the game plan is,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India at Nomura in Singapore.Foreign money is also sensitive to relative market moves, and gushed into India last year as managers with mandates to invest in Asia took down positions in China’s tumbling markets and bought up in India — something that is beginning to reverse.And uncertainty never helps.“I’m telling clients don’t be in a hurry to invest in India,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis, Missouri.“It’s still a pretty chaotic place.”

“Dear Class of 2024,I congratulate you on your achievements.As you graduate from your school or university, wherever you are in the world, you are told you can change it — that you can make it a better place. You are talented, capable and you have the energy and enthusiasm of youth. You hold all the tools to make positive change. You are the ones who can and will transform society.We who are older watch with mixed emotions as you go out into the world. Pride is at the forefront – so much pride in all you have achieved and all you will achieve. But we are also wistful and nostalgic. You remind us of ourselves, back in the days before we were tamed by society and its expectations, in the days when we too were filled with the idealism of youth.It was a time when we were honest with ourselves, not yet burying our honesty under layers of duty and respectability. As time has gone by, our lives have been filled by responsibilities: work, families, and the pressure to conform that comes with modern-day life. Gradually we have learnt to prioritise the expectations of others over our dreams.Over the years, we have been instructed many times to “be realistic”. Idealism is apparently seen by much of the world as something frivolous. And yet, isn’t idealism a precious asset — one of the most important attributes in the world? How can it be frivolous to be idealistic? Where would we be without idealism, a potent concoction of enthusiasm, energy and faith that inspires our actions, but is so easily lost? If only it were possible to bottle idealism, because if we do not hold onto our ideals, then we will stop striving to achieve them, and if no-one strives for a better world, then it will never happen.Of course, idealism must be married with dedication and hard work if you are to make real change, but I ask you not to be cowed by so-called reality checks. “You can never end poverty in the world.” “You can never stop wars.” “There can never be equality.” Maybe so, but should that stop you from aiming for an ideal world? One where everyone can go about their daily lives without fear of guns or bombs? Where every child has a full belly and a roof over their head? Where students may read their books in peace and debate their ideas without threat? All the work in the world is of no use if there is nothing to motivate it.Never be ashamed of your idealism. Never be afraid to speak the truth. The alternative is conforming to pressure and succumbing to cynicism. Instead, build your world view on a foundation of what you know to be right and you will lead the way on whichever path you choose to follow.Your generation faces great challenges, greater perhaps than ever before. But if you hold on to the fire within you, then I believe there is nothing you cannot achieve. As you follow your chosen path, it can be difficult to bear the burden, not only of your own hopes and dreams, but of those who came before you and those who will come after. I beg you not to allow the pressures of life’s challenges to blind you to your values and your belief in the possibility of a better world. Remain always true to yourself, your hopes, dreams and ideals.”Moza bint Nasser, Chairperson of Qatar Foundation

Each of the past 12 months ranked as the warmest on record in year-on-year comparisons, according to the EU’s climate change monitoring service, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for urgent action to avert “climate hell”.The average global temperature for the 12-month period to the end of May was 1.63 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average — making it the warmest such period since record-keeping began in 1940, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said.This 12-month average does not mean that the world has yet surpassed the 1.5C (2.7F) global warming threshold, which describes a temperature average over decades, beyond which scientists warn of more extreme and irreversible impacts.In a separate report, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is now an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will mark the first calendar year with an average temperature that temporarily exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels — up from a 66% chance last year.Speaking about the findings, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasised how quickly the world was heading in the wrong direction and away from stabilising its climate system.“In 2015, the chance of such a breach was near zero,” Guterres said in a speech marking World Environment Day.With time running out to reverse course, Guterres urged a 30% cut in global fossil fuel production and use by 2030.“We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell,” he said, adding: “The battle for 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s.”Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels — the main cause of climate change — hit a record high last year despite global agreements designed to curb their release and a rapid expansion in renewable energy.Coal, oil and gas still provide more than three quarters of the world’s energy, with global oil demand remaining strong.The latest climate data show that the world is “way off track” from its goal of limiting warming to 1.5C — the key target of the world’s 2015 Paris Accord, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said.“We must urgently do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or we will pay an increasingly heavy price in terms of trillions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather, and extensive damage to the environment and biodiversity,” Barrett said.Barrett described the cooling effect of La Nina weather conditions, which are expected to take hold later this year, as “a mere blip in the upward curve” in the heat felt across the globe.“We all need to know that we need to reverse this curve and we need to do it urgently,” she said.While last year registered as the warmest calendar year on record at 1.45C (2.61F) above pre-industrial temperatures, at least one of the next five years is likely to be even warmer than 2023, the WMO data show.Scientists at Copernicus said there were some surprising developments — such as the steep loss of Antarctic sea ice in recent months — but that the overall climate data were in line with projections of how rising greenhouse gas emissions would heat the planet.“We have not seen anything like this in the last several thousand years,” said Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo.Guterres took aim at fossil fuel companies.“The Godfathers of climate chaos — the fossil fuel industry — rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies,” he said.Drawing a comparison with many governments’ restrictions on advertising for harmful substances like tobacco, he said, “I urge every country to ban advertising from fossil fuel companies, and I urge news media and tech companies to stop taking fossil fuel advertising.” — Reuters

Mexico’s President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, an accomplished climate scientist, could struggle to fulfil her environmental pledges after she sailed to victory, in part, on the popularity of a predecessor who doubled down on fossil fuels.Sheinbaum, elected as Mexico’s first woman president by a sweeping margin, inherits a country grappling daily with climate change and environmental challenges: pervasive drought, a water crisis in the sprawling capital of Mexico City, and rampant deforestation.The 61-year-old leftist leader, who was part of a United Nations panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, has spoken about her belief in an academic and scientific approach to politics. She campaigned on a pledge to significantly boost renewable energy in the oil-producing country to as much as 50% by the end of her term in 2030.But despite her best intentions to improve Mexico’s green record, Sheinbaum’s mentor, the highly popular outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, spent billions propping up Mexico’s fossil fuel-dependent state energy giants, oil firm Pemex and power utility CFE.Her overwhelming victory — and the possible congressional super majority won by the ruling coalition — is in many ways a referendum on Lopez Obrador’s policies and initiatives, said Mariana Campero, senior associate with the CSIS Americas Program.Sheinbaum could be hard-pressed to break cadence with Lopez Obrador’s style at the risk of losing support, limiting her ability to prioritize climate change policies.“She has said repeatedly that she will continue with his policies and that her government will be a continuation of his government,” said Campero. “But she has always said that green energy is important. So how will she square that circle?”Sheinbaum has credited her upbringing by a chemical engineer father and cellular biologist mother for fostering her interest in science and politics. She has a doctorate in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. As mayor of Mexico City, she installed a roof-top solar project at a busy central market and inaugurated a 100% electric bus line.But she faced criticism for some projects, including the construction of a bridge in the Xochimilco ecological zone that community members said damaged wetlands. She also supports some of Lopez Obrador’s most controversial projects, including the Mayan Train, a tourist railway that activists and scientists decry for endangering pristine wilderness and ancient cave systems beneath the jungle floor.Still, her rise to the presidency has fuelled hope among some that she could turn things around for the country’s track record on climate change policies, which deteriorated under Lopez Obrador, according to the Climate Change Performance Index, largely due to increased subsidies for fossil fuels and poor progress in curbing deforestation.“I definitely think that she has that will and intention to put Mexico back on net-zero targets and in the good graces of the international community,” Arthur Deakin, director of energy at consultancy America’s Market Intelligence.Sheinbaum has pledged to boost wind and solar energy as part of a $13.57bn investment in new energy generation projects. She is, however, also facing the biggest budget deficit in decades, left behind by Lopez Obrador, a reality that will force her to pick and choose how to dedicate spending.Despite being the world’s most indebted energy company, Pemex is still a major contributor to state coffers, said Alejandra Lopez, a public policy consultant who specialises in energy issues.The firm is a heavy emitter of greenhouse gases, but it is also an important national symbol of energy sovereignty for many Mexicans, including Lopez Obrador.Pemex stirs a sense of “emotional, historical and sentimental” importance within the country, Lopez said.Sheinbaum is a vocal believer in the role of the state in Mexico’s energy sector, long dominated by Pemex, which could make it tough to keep her promise to increase renewable energy.A business-savvy approach could enable her to attract investment and spur realistic change towards decarbonising the energy and transportation sectors, Deakin said.Sheinbaum could start by increasing the limit for Distributed Generation (DG) projects, typically small privately-funded solar or wind farms that are built to supply energy to a specific factory or industrial site. Upping the cap from the current 0.5 megawatts to 5 megawatts, like Brazil has done, could increase clean electricity for commercial industrial users, Deakin said. She could introduce biofuel policies and increase electric vehicle (EV) subsidies and charging infrastructure. A national carbon credit framework could help accelerate interest in low carbon initiatives.“It’s a little harder when you’re struggling with a more constrained budget, but there’s other ways that emerging markets are able to create a more attractive environment for renewable electricity,” Deakin said.

With the launch of GPT-4o, OpenAI has once again shown itself to be the world’s most innovative artificial-intelligence company. This new multimodal AI tool – which seamlessly integrates text, voice, and visual capabilities – is significantly faster than previous models, greatly enhancing the user experience. But perhaps the most attractive feature of GPT-4o is that it is free – or so it seems.One does not have to pay a subscription fee to use GPT-4o. Instead, users pay with their data. Like a black hole, GPT-4o increases in mass by sucking up any and all material that gets too close, accumulating every piece of information that users enter, whether in the form of text, audio files, or images.GPT-4o gobbles up not only users’ own information but also third-party data that are revealed during interactions with the AI service. Let’s assume you are seeking a summary of a New York Times article’s content. You take a screenshot and share it with GPT-4o, which reads the screenshot and generates the requested summary within seconds. For you, the interaction is over. But OpenAI is now in possession of all the copyrighted material from the screenshot you provided, and it can use that information to train and enhance its model.OpenAI is not alone. In the past year, many firms – including Microsoft, Meta, Google, and X – have quietly updated their privacy policies in ways that potentially allow them to collect user data and apply it to train generative AI models. Though leading AI companies have already faced numerous lawsuits in the United States over their unauthorised use of copyrighted content for this purpose, their appetite for data remains as voracious as ever. After all, the more they obtain, the better they can make their models.The problem for leading AI firms is that high-quality training data has become increasingly scarce. In late 2021, OpenAI was so desperate for more data that it reportedly transcribed over a million hours of YouTube videos, violating the platform’s rules. (Google, YouTube’s parent company, has not pursued legal action against OpenAI, possibly to avoid accountability for its own harvesting of YouTube videos, the copyrights for which are owned by their creators.)With GPT-4o, OpenAI is trying a different approach, leveraging a large and growing user base – drawn in by the promise of free service – to crowdsource massive amounts of multimodal data. This approach mirrors a well-known tech-platform business model: charge users nothing for services, from search engines to social media, while profiting from app tracking and data harvesting – what Harvard professor Shoshana Zuboff famously called “surveillance capitalism.”To be sure, users can prohibit OpenAI from using their “chats” with GPT-4o for model training. But the obvious way to do this – on ChatGPT’s settings page – automatically turns off the user’s chat history, causing users to lose access to their past conversations. There is no discernable reason why these two functions should be linked, other than to discourage users from opting out of model training.If users want to opt out of model training without losing their chat history, they must, first, figure out that there is another way, as OpenAI highlights only the first option. They must then navigate through OpenAI’s privacy portal – a multi-step process. Simply put, OpenAI has made sure that opting out carries significant transaction costs, in the hopes that users will not do it.Even if users consent to the use of their data for AI training, consent alone would not guard against copyright infringement, because users are providing data that they may not actually own. Their interactions with GPT-4o thus have spillover effects on the creators of the content being shared – what economists call “externalities.” In this sense, consent means little.While OpenAI’s crowdsourcing activities could lead to copyright violations, holding the company – or others like it – accountable will be no easy feat. AI-generated output rarely looks like the data that informed it, which makes it difficult for copyright holders to know for certain whether their content was used in model training. Moreover, a firm might be able to claim ignorance: users provided the content during interactions with its services, so how can the company know where they got it from?Creators and publishers have employed a number of methods to keep their content from being sucked into the AI-training blackhole. Some have introduced technological solutions to block data scraping. Others have updated their terms of service to prohibit the use of their content for AI training. Last month, Sony Music – one of the world’s largest record labels – sent letters to more than 700 generative-AI companies and streaming platforms, warning them not to use its content without explicit authorisation.But as long as OpenAI can exploit the “user-provided” loophole, such efforts will be in vain. The only credible way to address GPT-4o’s externality problem is for regulators to limit AI firms’ ability to collect and use the data their users share.• Multimodal capabilities and user data collectionGPT-4o integrates text, voice, and visual capabilities, offering a significantly faster user experience. However, instead of charging subscription fees, OpenAI collects extensive user data, including text, audio files, and images, as a form of payment.• Third-party data harvestingGPT-4o collects not only users’ personal data but also third-party data shared during interactions, such as copyrighted material from screenshots, using it to train and improve its AI models.• Industry-wide data collection practicesMany major tech firms, including Microsoft, Meta, Google, and X, have updated their privacy policies to allow extensive data collection for AI training, despite facing legal challenges over the unauthorised use of copyrighted content.• Challenges of opting outUsers can opt out of data collection for AI training, but the process is cumbersome and linked to losing chat history, discouraging many from opting out. OpenAI’s privacy settings are designed to make opting out difficult and inconvenient.• Regulatory and ethical concernsThe practice of crowdsourcing data raises concerns about copyright infringement and ethical data use. While some content creators have tried to block data scraping and updated terms of service, regulators need to step in to limit AI firms’ data collection capabilities to address these issues effectively.— Project SyndicateAngela Huyue Zhang, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the Philip K.H. Wong Center for Chinese Law at the University of Hong Kong, is the author of High Wire: How China Regulates Big Tech and Governs Its Economy.S Alex Yang is Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide win gives her an unprecedented mandate in Mexico, but success in handling the country’s key ally and trading partner the United States hinges on how she can navigate the relationship and a possible clash if Donald Trump returns to the White House, according to former diplomats and analysts. A climate scientist who will become Mexico’s first female president, Sheinbaum is closely aligned with Mexico’s outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. He has not always seen eye to eye with Washington but found surprising common ground with Trump in his first term despite tensions on trade and migration. The smooth ties between the two populists is unlikely to be replicated with Sheinbaum, analysts and ex-diplomats said, given her more reserved and disciplined style. “I don’t think she will have the type of bromance that Lopez Obrador had with Donald Trump,” said Arturo Sarukhan, who was Mexico’s ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013. That could make things more difficult if the US Republican candidate defeats President Joe Biden in the November election. Polls show Trump leading in some battleground states. But Sheinbaum will be all too aware that her promises to expand welfare programmes and continue the policies that have helped her party lift millions of Mexicans out of poverty depend on having a stable and growing economy; and that requires the United States. In 2023, Mexico surpassed China to become the United States’ largest trading partner, and some 80% of Mexico exports are to the United States. “The economy of Mexico largely depends on the United States,” said Mexican political analyst Viri Rios. “So part of her mandate is to keep a solid trade relationship because the best jobs in Mexico come from the export-oriented economy.” A review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for 2026 and will be a massive test to the relationship under Sheinbaum especially under a protectionist Trump administration, even though the pact itself is the product of a renegotiation that he orchestrated and boasted of during his first term. Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief negotiator for the USMCA, said there will be a number of sticking points, including energy policy and a small but growing Chinese investment in strategic sectors in Mexico. “I can perfectly imagine a second Trump presidency where President Trump comes to Mexico and says, OK, you have to decide, do you side with the US or are you with China?” he said. In addition to trade politics, Washington pressures the Mexican government to crack down on drug production and trafficking — especially of fentanyl — and on the movement of migrants north to the US border. Mexico, in return, wants the United States to stop guns from being smuggled south into Mexico. “The interesting thing is how all these issues work together,” said Christopher Landau, who served as US ambassador to Mexico during the Trump presidency. “Assuming Trump wins, I think a day one issue is going to be the border and migration. So if Mexico is co-operative on that, that’s certainly going to earn a lot of goodwill on the trade side,” he said. But it is not just under Trump that migration flows have become a bilateral bargaining chip. Biden, for example, signed an executive order on Tuesday that could allow authorities to stop receiving asylum requests and deny entrance to migrants once a daily threshold is exceeded, a policy that would result in migrants from around the world who cross the southern US border being returned to Mexico. The announcement of such an executive order only days after Mexico’s election shows how Mexico has been strong-armed by both Democratic and Republican US administrations into enforcing US policy south of the border, advocates and analysts say. Still, the pressure on Mexico to ramp up detentions and deportations of migrants would likely increase under a second Trump term. Trump and other Republicans have also escalated their rhetoric about mobilising troops or firing missiles to combat Mexico’s drug cartels — moves the Mexican government would vehemently oppose as a matter of national sovereignty. And beyond personality styles and entrenched politics, there’s the more simple fact that Sheinbaum will be Mexico’s first woman president — a widely celebrated achievement that might nevertheless complicate her relationship with Trump. “Claudia Sheinbaum is a scientist, a political leader and she self-identifies as a feminist,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, Assistant Professor of Latin American History at George Washington University. “All of these qualifications make her a potential candidate to irritate Trump, if he is elected.”

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF). The 10th Ministerial Conference of the CASCF was successfully held on May 30, 2024 in Beijing. Leaders and foreign ministers from both China and the Arab States attended the conference.The theme of the conference was Working Toward a China-Arab Community with a Shared Future. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening of the conference. The conference adopted three important outcome documents, which are the Beijing Declaration, the Forum Action Plan for 2024-2026, and the China-Arab States Joint Statement on the Palestinian Issue. The conference further built consensus between China and Arab states, planned for co-operation in the next stage, and made a common voice of China and Arab states on the Palestinian question.The CASCF has made remarkable achievements since its establishment 20 years ago, and has yielded important outcomes in multiple aspects under the care and attention of the leaders from China and the Arab states. China’s relationship with many Arab states has developed from a “partnership” to a “strategic co-operative relationship”, and further upgraded to a “strategic partnership”, achieving leapfrog development.With the efforts of both sides, China-Arab strategic mutual trust has been continuously deepened, practical cooperation has brought tangible benefits to both peoples, people-to-people and cultural exchanges have been further enriched, and active progress has been made in building a China-Arab community with a shared future.Over the past two decades, CASCF contributed significantly to the development of China-Arab relations, and has become the signature platform for collective China-Arab cooperation and written a splendid chapter in South-South cooperation characterized by mutual respect, mutual benefit and mutual learning.CASCF is a role model for maintaining world peace and stability. China and the Arab countries respect the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, the independent choice of every nation and the reality formed in history. Our two sides uphold the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, practice true multilateralism, and defend the legitimate rights and interests of the developing countries.China is ready to deepen strategic mutual trust with Arab states, and firmly support each other in safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity, and strive together for solutions to hot-spot issues that uphold fairness and justice and sustain peace and security. China supports the Arab countries in promoting political settlement of hot-spot and challenging issues with Arab wisdom, and building a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture in the Middle East.CASCF is a role model of mutually beneficial co-operation between countries. China and the Arab states have strengthened synergy between our development strategies, and promoted high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. As we consolidate co-operation in traditional areas including economy and trade, energy and infrastructure development, we have broadened new sources of growth such as green and low-carbon development, health and medical services, and investment and finance.Co-operation in science and technology will nurture new highlights in our relationship. China will work with Arab countries to enhance co-operation on AI to make it empower the real economy and to promote a broad-based global governance system on AI.CASCF is a role model of harmonious coexistence between civilizations. China and the Arab countries respect the diversity of civilisations, uphold the principles of equality, mutual learning, dialogue and inclusiveness among civilisations. We advocate that cultural exchanges transcend estrangement, mutual learning transcend clashes, and coexistence transcend feelings of superiority.Peace, truth, integrity and inclusiveness are the common pursuit of both Chinese and Arab peoples. China is ready to work with the Arab countries to increase personnel exchange, deepen people-to-people co-operation, and promote the sharing of governance experience, and create a fine example of mutual learning among civilisations in the new era.CASCF is a role model for promoting good global governance. The international community is confronted by regional disputes as well as global issues such as climate change, terrorism, cybersecurity and biosecurity, and deficits in governance, trust, peace and development are getting wider. China and the Arab countries have enhanced co-operation to improve the global governance under the principle of “planning together, building together, and benefiting together”, and worked to address the various challenges and global issues facing humanity.China will work with the Arab countries to champion an equal and orderly multipolar world and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalisation, and strengthen communication and coordination with Arab countries at the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, BRICS, the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation and other multilateral platforms.The past 20 years has proven that CASCF is a builder of world peace, a contributor to global development, a defender of the international order, and a provider of public good. China will continue to work with the Arab countries to carry forward the spirit of China-Arab friendship and build a better future.

In an era where politics and international relations are increasingly intertwined, and challenges are growing more complex, the adoption of effective diplomatic tools by countries has become more urgent than ever. Soft power, one of the most crucial of these tools, plays a significant role in formulating and implementing foreign policy for states and all international actors.This concept, first introduced by American academic Joseph Nye in 1990, marked a radical shift in understanding how states influence one another. Hard power, characterised by military and economic coercion, is no longer the sole instrument in determining the course of international relationships and political relations or in achieving national interests. The world has witnessed a decline in the use of hard power in international relations due to its high costs and negative consequences.Soft power serves as a strategic tool in international relations, referring to a state’s ability to influence the behaviour of others and attract them through its culture, values, and principles. It achieves its urgent interests without resorting to coercion or hard power, using appropriate means. Nowadays, soft power plays a significant role in guiding, crafting, and achieving foreign policies and national interests. This is especially true for the ongoing evolution of the international system and the impact of globalisation on states and individuals across various fields. Soft power relies on cultural, value-based, and political appeal and plays a central role in formulating and implementing foreign policy objectives for states.Soft power appeals to a country’s rich culture and steadfast values, enhancing its credibility through practices that reflect these values. It is characterised by its ability to influence and change others’ behaviour through persuasion and attraction rather than coercion. Soft power is used to enhance international influence and achieve regional and global stability through diplomacy, economic co-operation, cultural and sports initiatives, and more.The United States serves as a prime example of a country effectively utilising soft power to advance its goals and interests. Through a diverse array of tools, including education, media, culture, and cinema, the US has not only bolstered its international standing but also achieved its strategic objectives.Today, soft power is one of the most important tools in a country’s foreign policy arsenal. Its profound and varied impact offers an effective alternative to hard power, enabling countries to achieve their goals more peacefully and sustainably. In an increasingly interconnected and complex world, soft power has become an indispensable tool for positive influence, building bridges of understanding, and fostering co-operation between nations to achieve international security and peace.Sheikh Mohamed bin Thamer al-Thani, a Qatar University graduate, majoring in International Affairs. He is the class valedictorian of 2024 Qatar University graduation.

The highest interest rates in years are taking a toll from the US to Australia, creating cracks in economies despite low unemployment and booming stock markets. Even where consumer spending looks solid, it’s often being funded by borrowing, from credit cards to “Buy Now Pay Later” services.It’s all part of the new normal, a world where the floor for rates is much higher and where corporate, household and government borrowers have to accept that this backdrop is sticking around for longer.That’s particularly the case in the US, where the strength of the economy means traders have been reining in Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations since the start of the year.The European Central Bank is moving faster, on track to lower rates next week, but easing beyond that is an open question.Federal Reserve officials earlier last month coalesced around a desire to hold interest rates higher for longer and “many” questioned whether policy was restrictive enough to bring inflation down to their target.Minutes from the two-day Federal Open Market Committee gathering ending May 1 showed that, while participants assessed that policy was “well positioned,” various officials mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further if warranted.As consumers cut back, American Airlines Group and Ryanair Holdings both said in recent weeks that they misjudged demand.Bank of Montreal shares plunged on loan-loss concerns, prompting analysts at Scotiabank to respond that “the ‘higher-for-longer’ rate scenario is a reality.”From weekly shopping to mortgages and big deals in the world of finance, there are examples around the world of the pressures from higher borrowing costs.In the US, credit card rates and a rise in debt levels have emerged as a soft spot for the world’s biggest economy, with younger people in particular feeling the pain.For Gen Z, almost one in seven are maxing out their credit cards every month to cope with the rise in living standards, according to a study by officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.On top of that, there are fears that the rise of Buy Now Pay Later is masking the full extent of consumer distress.US consumers have added $3.4tn in debt since the pandemic, and much of that is subject to higher interest rates, according to a Bloomberg report.In Canada, record low borrowing costs helped drive one of the world’s biggest housing booms. Now persistently higher ones threaten a lengthy aftershock.The UK’S debt-fueled private equity deals are in focus as the Bank of England is reviewing the dangers posed by higher borrowing costs. It will publish an assessment in June amid concerns about the risk the industry poses to the financial system.The analysis comes after private equity managers snapped up British companies in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, paying for them with huge amounts of floating-rate debt because credit was so cheap.In Australia, one in 13 hospitality business could fail over the coming year, the highest rate since 2019, according to financial data provider CreditorWatch, as downbeat sentiment and high interest rates hurt the industry.The number of Brazilian agricultural growers filing for bankruptcy protection surged sixfold in 2023, according to credit data provider Serasa Experian, an alarming rate in a country where agribusiness has been expanding rapidly.The new era of high interest rates is expected to stay for some time, as persisting price pressures and geopolitical risks continue to challenge central banks in key economies to bring inflation back to their targets.As high interest rates slow economic activity by dampening overall demand for goods and services, both businesses and consumers may face weaker economic prospects in 2024.

Starting in the 1980s, European automakers steadily conquered China, racking up millions in sales with little local competition. Now they’ll have to defend their home turf in Europe from an onslaught of formidable Chinese electric vehicles.Chinese EV titans BYD, Chery, and Great Wall Motor (GWM) are preparing a fusillade of product launches — about 20 over the next five years — and spending heavily on sales and marketing in their most important export market, according to Reuters interviews with 18 China auto executives, consultants, and industry experts familiar with the Chinese automakers’ European strategy.After several years of swiping market share from foreign rivals in its domestic market, the world’s largest, China’s increasingly potent EV industry is ready to take the fight to Europe.Chinese electric-vehicle makers have studied European car buyers for years, hiring industry veterans and selecting distributors with extensive local knowledge as they laid the groundwork to take on Tesla and legacy automakers, the sources said. BYD and Chery have already announced plans to manufacture cars in Europe.Chinese carmakers are now deploying a range of tactics to break into the market, ranging from sponsoring high-profile sporting events to raise awareness of their brands, to building out their dealership networks, and shoring up service-and-repair operations to protect resale values — a key requirement of fleet buyers who make up a large share of the European market.Chinese automakers’ European sales remain small because their brands are little known to consumers — with the exception of MG, a former British brand owned by SAIC, a state-owned Chinese automaker.But deliveries are growing rapidly and could surge with the release of additional models across a broad range of price segments, industry experts said. BYD saw its Europe sales triple to 15,000 vehicles in 2023 after years of exponential EV sales growth in China and other export markets.BYD has launched six electric models in Europe and a spokesman said the company is rolling them out across 20 countries. It launched its first three models in the United Kingdom last year and plans two more this year, said BYD’s UK marketing manager, Mark Blundell.Great Wall plans to launch a model a year in Europe for the next five years, two distributors told Reuters. Chery will launch a total of eight SUV models under two brands, Omodo and Jaecoo, over the next two years, said Chery’s European managing director, Jochen Tueting.By comparison, Tesla has just two volume-sellers — the mid-priced models 3 and Y. Both are overdue for a redesign and declining in global and European sales.Executives from BYD, GWM, and Chery told Reuters they are looking to plant deep roots in the Europe market. Chery’s Tueting said the company is focusing on all facets of the European automotive ecosystem, from branding to financing tools to repairs and resale values for both private and corporate customers.“We’ve been doing our homework,” Tueting said. SAIC’s MG did not respond to interview requests.Christina Bu, of the Norwegian EV Association, which represents 120,000 EV owners, has met with many Chinese automakers and noted some have spent years planning their European strategy. Norway is a global leader in EV adoption.Chinese brands, Bu said, have so far adapted Chinese EV models for export, but they’re already working on models designed from scratch to target European buyers. They also don’t face the same pressure as western rivals to turn a profit quickly because they are heavily backed by the Chinese government, she said.“Some of these players have spent a lot of money on it, despite not having sold much yet,” Bu said.China’s auto industry, a mix of state-owned and private firms, has major cost advantages over foreign competitors in part because of government subsidies and the nation’s dominance of battery minerals refining.In China, the explosion of EV brands has ignited a price war, with automakers led by BYD selling a slew of EVs priced between $10,000 and $30,000.Those rock-bottom prices have alarmed automakers and their political allies in the United States and Europe. In May, U.S. President Joe Biden quadrupled tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%. The European Union is currently investigating China subsidies and may soon raise tariffs on its cars.But European auto executives said at a Reuters event in May that higher tariffs will do little to protect them from Chinese EVs unless Europe’s industry acts quickly to match their price and value.“The window is closing,” said Volkswagen board member Thomas Schmall. “We have two or three years.”So far, China automakers are not deeply undercutting foreign rivals. Instead, they’re maximizing profits on exports by charging double or more, compared to the China price, for the same vehicles.Their Europe prices are just slightly below comparable models from western automakers, but the Chinese vehicles are often stuffed with standard-equipment goodies - such as heated-and-cooled seats, 360-degree cameras, digital dashboards - that often cost extra in competitors’ vehicles.Japanese automakers used similar tactics when expanding into western markets decades ago.As they expand exports, Chinese automakers are implementing complex strategies to increase their appeal to European customers. They have improved their safety ratings, strengthened repair-and-service operations, and distribution, bolstering resale values, which are particularly important for people who lease cars.Leasing companies charge lower monthly payments for cars with high resale value because they’re worth more at the end of the lease term, when buyers can choose to either buy them or return them to the leasing firm.Chinese EV makers’ attention to detail reflects what they’ve learned about European consumers, said Bo Yu, Greater China country manager for JATO Dynamics, a UK-based automotive industry research firm.“In China, the purchase price is important,” she said. “But for European consumers, it’s not just price, but total cost of ownership, including maintenance, service, and residual values.”Another critical effort is courting fleet consumers, which control an unusually large share of European auto sales. For instance, Ayvens, Europe’s largest leasing company, already has partnerships with BYD and Geely.Unlike Tesla, which has undercut its resale values by repeatedly reducing retail prices, Chinese automakers are working with companies like Autovista, which conducts extensive “car-to-market” studies to set optimal residual values for leasing customers.Chinese automakers’ main challenge is reaching the majority of European consumers who don’t know they exist. That gives legacy carmakers more time to stave off the threat of Chinese exports, said Phil Dunne, a managing director at strategy consultancy Stax.“But the Chinese are fast learners,” he said, “so it won’t last much longer.”To boost their brand presence, Chinese automakers are turning to social media, high-profile event sponsorships, and partnerships with established dealer networks.One of BYD’s distributors in Italy is Gruppo Autotorino, with 70 retail locations in 24 provinces. “Our network allows them to reach clients quickly,” said chairman Plinio Vanini. “This was key for BYD.”GWM and Chery are partnering with existing dealerships that also sell other established brands. Chery’s European managing director Jochen Tueting said the automaker, for its Omoda vehicles, chose such shared locations “so people say: ‘While I’m here, I’ll take a look.’”BYD, because of its scale as China’s leading EV brand, is launching mostly standalone dealerships - and rolling them out fast.Mark Blundell, BYD’s UK marketing manager, says the automaker will have 60 UK dealerships by the summer, rising to 100 next summer, and within 18 months plans enough locations so most Brits can reach one within a 14-minute drive.Awareness of Chinese cars is rising. According to research in March from online car marketplace Carwow, 50% of respondents in Germany said they would consider a Chinese-made car, up from 27% last October. — Reuters

President Joe Biden’s decision to relax some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weaponry inside Russia is a small but significant step deeper into the two-year-old war that experts say could help blunt Russia’s cross-border Kharkiv offensive.Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Biden’s administration had argued it was too risky to allow Ukraine to strike targets on Russia territory with US-supplied weapons. It feared a major Ukrainian attack could trigger direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia.It was a rule that fit neatly with other US prohibitions on supplying higher-end weaponry to Kyiv that have also since crumbled, from advanced US fighter jets to long-range ATACM missiles.Biden administration officials say the latest decision, which went into effect on Thursday, was narrowly tailored to the battle in the Kharkiv region. US officials say it allows Kyiv to use US-supplied weapons to fire back against Russian forces “attacking them or preparing to attack them” from across the border.That gives Ukrainians on the frontlines a green light to fire over the border at Russian forces using US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers armed with Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles, and other weaponry, experts say.“This can stabilise the frontline and possibly create conditions to push back (Russians) from Kharkiv region before they have dug in,” said Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, an official think-tank in Kyiv.Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer, said Biden’s decision will reduce Kyiv’s need to draw troops away from critical battle fronts in the eastern Donbas region.“The Russians are now going to find themselves on the back foot and will have to rethink the tactics they have been using in their attack into Kharkiv,” he said.Biden’s decision-making process dates back weeks.Ukraine raised its request to use US weapons across the border in the Kharkiv region during a secure video conference on May 13 with White House National Security Director Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C Q Brown, a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.Sullivan, Austin and Brown developed a recommendation in favour of relaxing the restrictions, which Sullivan took to Biden on May 15. Biden agreed Ukraine should be able to strike back against Russian forces attacking them from the safety of Russian soil, the official said. Biden’s administration had been finalizing the decision since then.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly called for Ukraine’s partners to take such a step in a May 20 interview with Reuters, but at the time said: “So far, there is nothing positive.”Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, said Russia had been exploiting Biden’s prohibition on strikes inside Russian territory by using it as a safehaven to launch attacks in Kharkiv region.Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is just 19 miles from the border.“Russia could keep its artillery right across the border. It could keep air defence, electronic warfare, command and control (there),” Lee said. “It had maybe a degree of kind of sanctuary.”Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Nato members against allowing Ukraine to fire their weapons into Russia and on Tuesday once again raised the risk of nuclear war.Still, Ukraine appears ready to seek to expand its ability to use US weaponry elsewhere in Russia in the weeks and months to come, particularly after a difficult year in which Russia seized the momentum on the battlefield.On Friday, less than a day after Washington announced its policy shift, Zelensky was quoted in an interview with the *Guardian newspaper calling for US approval to hit targets deep inside Russian territory.Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington, said Biden’s move was just a first step.“It’s not a radical departure (in policy). But it’s a step,” Cancian said.“Ukrainians and officials in the administration will argue for the next step: To strike a broader set of targets — maybe targets in Russia that are not directly threatening Kharkiv, but are in other areas.”US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking on Friday in Prague, declined to say whether the Biden administration could expand its policy to allow strikes elsewhere in Russia. But he did not rule it out.“Going forward, we’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is as necessary adapt and adjust,” Blinken said.

Generative artificial intelligence has captured the world’s imagination because it appears likely to automate tasks that previously required advanced cognitive skills. With it, there is a real prospect that many highly educated and experienced workers may be replaced by algorithms. What happens when machines come for the jobs not of handloom weavers and autoworkers, but of scriptwriters, lawyers, middle managers, and even high-level executives?One response is to think that skills no longer matter, or even that we should de-emphasise education. On the contrary, while the potential for increased productivity (and higher incomes for all) through human-machine interaction has never been greater, we humans will need to up our game. We must get better at everything the computers struggle with, including understanding context, thinking outside the box, and managing relationships with other humans.According to a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute, up to 30% of current work hours in industrialised countries could be automated by 2030, under a scenario of moderate automation. While automation has squeezed workers for decades, generative AI heralds a significant acceleration and gut-wrenching change for many people who assumed their careers were stable.In the United States and the European Union, the number of people employed as office workers, in manufacturing, and as customer-service representatives will almost certainly decline as generative AI takes hold. (The report considers nine EU countries – the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden – representing 75% of the European working population, as well as the United Kingdom).But the news is not all bad. The report estimates that demand for workers in health care, clean energy, and other high-skill professions (such as scientific research and development) is likely to rise in those same countries. Of course, there are other factors at work here, including efforts to achieve net-zero emissions (important for new job creation across all industrialised countries), an ageing workforce (particularly in Europe), the continuing expansion of private sector e-commerce, and the strengthening of government-financed infrastructure.Rather than mass unemployment, the most likely outcome is that many people will soon face pressure to change jobs. Under reasonable assumptions, Europe could experience up to 12mn occupational transitions over the next six years.While the projected annual occupational transition rate (0.8% of employed people) is lower than the relatively high rate observed in Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic (1.2%), it is twice as high as the pre-pandemic norm (0.4%). In the US, employment transitions over the same period could also reach almost 12mn, although this seems more manageable, as the US already had an elevated pre-pandemic transition rate (1.2%) compared to Europe.Executives on both sides of the Atlantic are already concerned about existing skill shortages and mismatches in a tight labour market. It is good news for suitably qualified humans if demand for social and emotional skills rises with the new technologies. The more than 1,100 executives that the McKinsey team surveyed in Europe and the US not only stressed the need for advanced information-technology and data-analytics skills but also for more workers who are competent in critical thinking, creativity, and “teaching and training.”The wage implications are likely to be significant. Demand for labour will shift toward occupations that already have higher wages in both Europe and the US. And there is a real risk of some employment reduction in lower-wage white-collar occupations. These workers will need to acquire new skills to obtain better-paying work. If they can acquire these skills – by themselves, through employers, or with the assistance of government – they will have an opportunity to climb the wage ladder.But there is a real risk of an even more polarized labour market in which there are more high-wage job openings than qualified workers (further driving up the top wages), and many more workers compete for increasingly limited lower-wage positions (further driving down the lower end of the wage distribution). This outcome would be a disappointing reversal of the reduced wage inequality in the post-pandemic labour market. Fortunately, it is avoidable.For policymakers, the major takeaway is that human capital matters more than ever for national competitiveness and shared prosperity. Some manual jobs will remain with humans (robots have a relatively hard time with many basic mobility and cleaning tasks).But executives are currently convinced they need to retrain many workers in order to meet all their skill needs. Public policy should encourage employers as much as possible to maintain this disposition and reskill workers rather than replace them.Significantly faster productivity growth, especially in Europe, and shared prosperity can flow from new technology, but only if its adoption is accompanied by upgraded human skills and more proactive worker redeployment.To achieve this in the age of generative AI, executives should be as candid as possible about nascent skills gaps, and governments should focus on making it as easy as possible for all workers to upgrade their skills in a timely and appropriate fashion. — Project SyndicateSimon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a co-author (with Daron Acemoglu) of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. Eric Hazan is a Senior Partner with McKinsey & Company and a member of the McKinsey Global Institute Council.

Seasoned air travellers are accustomed to the seatbelt sign turning on with a chime and accompanied by an announcement by the captain or the flight attendants asking them to keep the seatbelt on as turbulence is expected. In 99.99% cases, the seatbelt sign would be switched off after a few minutes. But in the rarest of rare instances, severe flight turbulence can strike, as it happened on May 21 when one passenger died and more than 20 people were injured on an extremely bumpy Singapore Airlines flight travelling from London to its home country. Experts say it’s the kind of incident that could become more common as climate change and global warming accelerate.Between 2009 and 2023, there were 185 serious injuries on 162 global flights involving turbulence for scheduled air carriers (large US-based airlines, regional air carriers and cargo carriers with specific Federal Aviation Administration certificates), according to the US National Transportation Safety Board. Climate change could make severe turbulence a bigger problem in the future. Last year, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters found that turbulence in some parts of the world may already be on the rise, Bloomberg reported.When an aircraft is flying, air is flowing over the wings, causing them to lift and enabling flight, said Larry Cornman, a physicist studying turbulence with the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research. Turbulence occurs when that airflow is disrupted — essentially, when there’s variation in the wind field around an aircraft. The result, Cornman says, is the plane may “bounce up or down, pitch or roll or move in any direction.” There is also ‘clear-air turbulence,’ which is tricky as it is not associated with visible weather patterns, and pilots can’t easily see it.Many things can cause turbulence. “Jet stream turbulence is a fairly common one,” Cornman said. Jet streams are large rivers of air moving rapidly through the atmosphere, typically at higher altitudes. Because the air is moving so quickly, there can be location variations that get amplified and turned into waves. Sometimes they break, like a wave on the beach. This large source of energy triggers turbulence. Similarly, air flowing over mountains can generate waves that propagate up into the atmosphere and break, triggering turbulence. Thunderstorms also cause turbulence. While pinpointing the exact relationship between climate change and any given turbulent flight is impossible, a series of studies published over the past decade suggest that climate change stands to make turbulence worse in the future, if it isn’t already.In 2017, a study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences used climate model simulations to investigate trans-Atlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence as it relates to climate change. Researchers from the UK’s University of Reading found that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could cause light turbulence to increase by roughly 59%, moderate turbulence by 4% and moderate-to-severe turbulence by 127%.A separate 2019 study in Nature found that climate change is already adding to turbulence via an increase in what’s known as the vertical shear in the North Atlantic jet stream. And last year, a study in Geophysical Research Letters used 21 different turbulence calculations to determine whether turbulence got worse between 1979 and 2020. The researchers found “clear evidence” of large clear-air turbulence increases in certain parts of the world.“We recently discovered that severe clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic has increased by 55% since 1979,” said Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading who wrote the 2017 study and co-authored the 2019 and 2023 research.“Our latest future projections indicate a doubling or tripling of severe turbulence in the jet streams in the coming decades,” Williams said, “if the climate continues to change as we expect.” In short, passengers should keep their seatbelt on for as much of the flight as possible.