Opinion

On Saturday (May 25) marked the 43rd anniversary of the establishment of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in the early ‘80s, highlighting the success of its foundation, thanks to the wise and balanced policies adopted under the wise leadership of the leaders of the member states.After these long years of dedication and interaction, the GCC has succeeded in enhancing its regional position and its international presence and engagement. It has become a reliable and active partner in fostering global security and stability.The anniversary arrives at a time when the GCC has proven to be the most successful integrative experience in the region. This experience has garnered widespread admiration and praise, becoming a cornerstone of security and stability, a voice of wisdom and balance, and a unique model for a prosperous life. The anniversary also comes as the Gulf citizen enjoys security and stability, feels proud of their achievements and gains, and extends a helping hand to their brethren and all humanity.The GCC was established on May 25, 1981, in exceptional circumstances due to regional tensions and the political, security, and economic challenges faced by the region. These circumstances prompted the member states to unify their efforts, co-operate, and enhance economic, political, and security integration to achieve stability and cooperation in facing these challenges. The main objectives of establishing the GCC, as outlined in its basic charter, include achieving co-ordination, integration, and interconnection among member states in all fields, strengthening ties between their peoples, and adopting similar systems in various economic, financial, commercial, customs, transportation, educational, cultural, social, health, media, tourism, legislative, and administrative fields. It also aims to advance scientific and technical progress in industry, mining, agriculture, water, and animal resources, establish scientific research centres, and implement joint projects, and encourage private sector co-operation.The decision to establish the GCC was not spontaneous but rather an institutional embodiment of a historical, social, and cultural reality. The GCC states are characterised by deep religious and cultural ties and familial interconnections among their citizens, all of which are factors that enhance their unity and co-operation. The geographical proximity and the shared desert coastal environment facilitated communication and interaction, fostering a homogeneous identity and values. The establishment of the GCC also came in response to the aspirations of the region’s people for some form of regional Arab unity, after such unity proved difficult to achieve at the broader Arab level. The GCC’s basic charter states that its establishment was driven by the member states recognition of their special relationships, common characteristics, and similar systems, all rooted in Islamic beliefs. It reflects their shared destiny and unity of purpose, and their desire to achieve co-ordination, integration, and interconnection in all fields, convinced that such co-operation serves the noble goals of the Arab nation.In the context of the council’s evolution and increasing effectiveness and influence regionally and globally, the GCC launched its regional security vision on March 29. Qatar participated in the vision launch event organised by the GCC General Secretariat in Riyadh.The Qatari delegation at the event was headed by HE the Director of Policy and Planning Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr Khalid bin Fahad al-Khater. In his speech at the event, he stated that the launch of the vision comes at a time of escalating international and regional changes, necessitating intensified co-ordination to deal with these changes and avoid their serious repercussions.He emphasised that the GCC countries are working to strengthen collective security ties, share a common approach to reducing tensions, and address instability in the region through diplomatic and economic means, aiming to end conflicts that violate state sovereignty through dialogue, negotiations, and diplomatic methods, and to avoid the use of force to ensure regional security and stability.HE Dr al-Khater highlighted that the event was a culmination of joint Gulf efforts through the regional security team to develop a common vision for the GCC regarding regional security in the Gulf. He added that this vision represents the starting point for addressing regional security issues in the upcoming period through ongoing dialogues with various partners on this matter.He clarified that the vision is based on several pillars of security for the GCC, foremost among these is the council’s fundamental charter, which emphasises the shared destiny and unity of purpose among the member states, aiming for co-ordination and integration, in addition to, the joint defence agreement stipulates that any attack on one member is considered an attack on all, and any threat to one is a threat to all.HE Dr al-Khater also participated in a panel discussion organised by the GCC General Secretariat during the event, focusing on the GCC’s vision for regional security and ways to enhance and advance it. In his speech, he highlighted that enhancing regional security is a priority for Qatar during its current presidency of the GCC, reflecting Qatar’s long-standing commitment to contributing to regional security by building bridges of dialogue and co-operation.Over its more than four-decade-long journey, the GCC has achieved numerous historical milestones that have strengthened the council’s foundation and entrenched its goals and aspirations in the hearts of Gulf citizens. Among these achievements is the establishment of the Gulf Common Market, which offers numerous benefits, including the seamless flow of goods between GCC countries, thereby increasing competition among Gulf institutions to the benefit of consumers.The GCC also established a “Free Trade Area”, primarily characterised by the exemption of GCC-produced industrial, agricultural, and natural resource products from customs duties. This Free Trade Area came into effect in March 1983 and lasted for nearly 20 years until the end of 2002, when it was replaced by the GCC Customs Union.During its journey, which has now entered its fifth decade, the GCC also accomplished the project of the unified GCC identity card (smart card). This initiative has facilitated the movement of citizens between member states, reduced wait times at entry points through the use of electronic gates, and aided the smooth movement of national labour between member states.In terms of the GCC’s milestones and projects, the adoption of a comprehensive security strategy for its member states and the GCC security agreement stands out. Joint military work has always received attention from the leaders of the GCC states, since its inception. Notable achievements in this area include the approval of the GCC joint defence agreement, the GCC defence strategy, the formation of the Peninsula Shield Force, and the conducting of joint military exercises. The education sector has also garnered significant attention from the GCC in recent years, achieving numerous successes such as equality in general and technical education and the promotion of Gulf citizenship values. The GCC established the Gulf Network for Quality Assurance in Higher Education and approved the guide for good practices, ensuring equal treatment for GCC nationals residing in member states in universities and public higher education institutions.In the healthcare sector, GCC countries have demonstrated significant co-operation through the exchange of medical expertise and technologies among member states and coordination to combat epidemics and maintain the health of communities in the region. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the GCC played a crucial role in collaboration and coordination among member states to fight the spread of the virus, tackle the challenges of the pandemic, implement preventive measures, and regulate international travel and trade.One of the most important infrastructure projects approved by the GCC is the electrical interconnection between member states. The benefits of this project include reducing the reserve required in each country, mutual coverage in emergencies, utilisation of surplus electricity, and reducing the cost of electricity production.The Supreme Council also approved the media strategy, aiming to enhance co-operation and unity among GCC countries, solidify the Gulf, Arab, and Islamic identities of the GCC states, deepen Gulf citizenship, support the cohesion, security, and stability of the Gulf society, raise public awareness among citizens and residents, and support the council’s journey and co-operation and integration between official and non-official institutions in member states.In its 33rd session, the Supreme Council adopted the petroleum strategy for member states, recognising the global political and economic importance of the GCC countries, their leadership role in the petroleum industry, and their significant oil reserves, making them the largest region for oil production and export.The GCC is a reliable economic player internationally, representing a large market for exports from around the world. The member states play a crucial role in supplying global energy markets with oil and gas, which are the main drivers of the global economy and account for about 60% of the energy consumed worldwide.GCC countries co-operate extensively in all environmental sectors and work with organisations focused on environmental protection and conservation of natural resources. They have joined numerous regional and international agreements and treaties on the environment, wildlife protection, natural resource conservation, biodiversity, ozone layer protection, climate change, desertification combat, and international trade in endangered species.In terms of foreign policy, the GCC has worked to formulate joint and unified stances on political issues affecting its six member states within Arab, regional, and international frameworks. The council acts as a single entity in the world based on principles of mutual respect, non-interference in internal affairs, and consideration of common interests, safeguarding the interests of member states, enhancing their security, stability, and prosperity. On this path, the GCC has succeeded in strengthening its regional position and confirming its presence on the international stage, becoming a reliable and active partner in establishing global security and stability.Since its inception, the council has aimed to expand its strategic partnerships and dialogues with many countries and blocs, engaging in free trade negotiations with international economic groups to achieve common interests. The GCC countries have signed numerous free trade agreements with other nations worldwide to facilitate the movement of goods, enhance interregional trade, expand investment opportunities, and foster strong trade relations.Thus, the journey of the GCC continues with determination and confidence from its leaders and people, looking forward to a bright future and more achievements, and implementing ambitious developmental plans in each member state to achieve comprehensive and sustainable development goals. These plans focus on the Gulf citizen as the central axis of development, its main objective, and its primary driver. The advanced global indicators reflect the economic status of the GCC countries, which have become a pioneering model not only nationally but also regionally and globally.

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.The “positive” outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023.Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year.“There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally,” according to the World Economic Forum.Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond.As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice.But staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labour to cope with high demand.According to UNWTO, the evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveller confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year revealed that international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3bn international arrivals.The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019.Europe, the world’s most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations.UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: “Our latest data underscores tourism’s resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development.”

Since the European Green Deal was introduced in 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has touted it as the European Union’s new economic-growth agenda. After all, while the strategy’s core objective is climate-related – to reduce the EU’s greenhouse-gas emissions to net-zero by 2050 – it aims to achieve that by modernising the economy and fostering innovation. But not everyone is convinced.In recent months, European drivers have complained about the EU’s looming ban on the production and sale of cars with internal combustion engines, households have resisted plans to phase out gas boilers, and farmers have revolted against environmental regulations they view as overbearing. With the approach of next month’s European Parliament elections, far-right parties are jostling to establish themselves as the official standard-bearers of this growing discontent and preparing to use any power they win to sabotage the green agenda.The protesters make some legitimate points. The radical transformation that the European Green Deal entails raises difficult questions about who should bear the costs of climate action, both within and among countries. If those costs end up falling disproportionately on ordinary workers – let alone the poorest and most vulnerable communities – the transformation will exacerbate inequality, with potentially serious social and political knock-on effects. Fortunately, properly designed climate policies can avert that outcome and actually lead to greater social equality.The European Green Deal has accounted for climate-justice considerations since the beginning. Advocates always knew that they would need to secure the political support of coal-intensive Poland, and they had not forgotten the “yellow vest” revolt that erupted in France in 2018, after President Emmanuel Macron attempted to introduce a carbon tax in road transport.It is no coincidence that the first flagship initiative under the European Green Deal was the Just Transition Fund, which will dedicate €20bn ($21.6bn) in 2021-27 to support the “economic diversification and reconversion” of the territories expected to be the most negatively affected by the green transition. Nor is it a coincidence that, while creating the first-ever carbon market for buildings and road transport, the European Commission established the Social Climate Fund, which is expected to mobilize at least €86.7bn between 2026 and 2032 to compensate the most vulnerable groups for higher energy prices.These policy initiatives reflect the advice one would find in the economic literature on carbon dividends. But they will prove insufficient to offset the profound distributional effects of climate policy, particularly as decarbonisation accelerates and includes sectors that directly affect ordinary people’s daily lives, such as buildings and transport. That is why Europe also needs a new green social contract, which focuses primarily on these sectors.To this end, the EU should streamline and simplify existing funding instruments to deliver even more decisive support for the transformation of coal and carbon-intensive regions. It should also take steps to ensure that EU countries make better, more targeted use of carbon-market revenues to support the uptake of green alternatives, from electric vehicles to home heating systems. And it should push for a “Rural Green Deal” that supports small farmers while requiring the agri-food industry to transform its systems. While such EU-level action would not eliminate the distributional consequences of climate policy, it would help significantly.The EU must also turn decarbonisation into a real economic opportunity by developing a solid green industrial policy. This will require, first and foremost, revitalising the “boring” EU single-market agenda, in order to leverage the bloc’s greatest asset – a huge shared market for goods, financial services, energy, workers, and ideas – to incentivise new investments in clean tech.Interventions in specific technology areas will also be needed. Rather than mimic the broad-based US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU should make the most of its limited resources by delivering targeted support in areas where it already has a solid comparative advantage on which to build. While some incumbent industries might need support as they decarbonise, supporting breakthrough innovations should be the primary goal.The European Green Deal has come a long way since it was conceived five years ago. But if the EU is to achieve its 2030 climate goals and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, it must act now to ensure that it can weather the inevitable political headwinds. A new green social contract and industrial policy can make all the difference. – Project SyndicateSimone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel, is an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Bologna.

Earlier this month, the European Union celebrated the 20th anniversary of its biggest-ever enlargement, which brought ten new members into the bloc. That event remains a potent reminder of the EU’s potential to advance peace and unity across the European continent. But, at a time of deep internal divisions and an increasingly volatile external environment, the giddy idealism of 2004 seems a distant dream, and the prospects of further enlargement appear uncertain.The promise of EU accession has been long considered a powerful mechanism for strengthening stability, democracy, and prosperity across the continent. The addition of Portugal and Spain in the 1980s – democratic transitions in both countries – exemplified this dynamic.But by 2004, when eight post-communist countries (and Malta and Cyprus) joined, not to mention the 2007 accession of Bulgaria and Romania, the logic of enlargement had shifted. Expanding the single market and fortifying the foundations of democracy across Europe were still critical objectives.But by welcoming Central and Eastern European countries into the European “family,” the EU was also demonstrating that it had overcome its past of war and division. The EU’s new members, for their part, welcomed the chance to escape centuries of limbo between Russia and the West, even though Russia no longer seemed to pose much of a threat to its neighbours, at least in the eyes of the Union.Today, with a war raging on Europe’s doorstep, there is no question that Russia is dangerous. Just four days after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership. Driven by a sense of moral responsibility, rather than genuine enthusiasm for further enlargement, the bloc quickly granted it candidate status. There are now nine recognised candidates for EU membership, mainly in Eastern Europe.But, while the 2004 “Big Bang” was a success, it cannot serve as a model for future enlargement. Each accession brings its own challenges, which demand nuanced solutions. One key challenge today – which has undermined the old EU enlargement narrative – is democratic backsliding in some member countries.Most notably, Hungary has clashed repeatedly with the EU over the anti-democratic policies pursued by Prime Minister Viktor Orban since he returned to power in 2010. In Poland, an Orban-emulating right-wing government was replaced last year by a three-party coalition committed to shoring up democracy, but tensions persist. Slovakia’s populist-nationalist prime minister, Robert Fico, was recently the target of an assassination attempt.This trend has undermined EU-level decision-making, with national interests often trumping the will of the majority. For example, Orban repeatedly blocked EU support for Ukraine and has cultivated closer trade and investment ties with China at a time when other EU members are seeking to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market. Budapest was one of only three stops Chinese President Xi Jinping made on his recent trip to Europe, and he and Orban announced that their countries will form an “all-weather partnership.”More broadly, the EU’s vision for the future – from its ambitious European Green Deal to its approach to migration – faces considerable resistance, dampening enthusiasm for further integration and enlargement. If the EU institutions are struggling to chart a common vision for 27 member states, how can they possibly accommodate as many as 36? After all, this new EU would not only be bigger; it would also be more diverse.The enlargement debate has never been free of questions of geographical determinism. But, recognising the geopolitical and economic advantages of wider membership, the EU sought to avoid potential conflicts not by excluding countries on geographical grounds, but rather by updating its accession policy to include conditionality. If a country wants to join the EU, it must meet certain standards in a range of areas, from minority rights to judicial independence.Can Georgia, which applied for EU membership in 2022, prove more successful at meeting the conditions for EU membership? That now seems unlikely, judging by the government’s recent effort to enact a Russian-inspired “foreign agent” law requiring civil-society groups and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as organizations “bearing the interests of a foreign power.” Though the law was vetoed by President Salome Zourabichvili and, more importantly, sparked massive protests by a population that overwhelmingly supports EU accession, the government appears unmoved and is ramming the bill through.Serbia is hardly in a better position. Though the country has been an EU accession candidate since 2012, only 33% of Serbians want to join, according to a 2023 survey. Xi also stopped in Belgrade during his recent European tour, signing an agreement to build a “shared future” with Serbia.As for Ukraine, its ongoing war with Russia is not the only barrier to EU membership. Far-reaching economic and governance reforms would be needed to meet accession criteria. Moreover, the country’s vast agricultural sector has raised competition concerns among EU farmers.If a new, larger EU is to function, creative solutions will be needed. Many have advocated a “multi-speed Europe,” in which member countries move toward integration at their own rate, with a set of vanguard countries leading the way. But in the absence of a common vision for the future – meaning different objectives, not just different capacities for integration – what is really needed is a “Europe of variable geometry,” which offers a more pragmatic approach to integration in the face of irreconcilable differences.Today, the EU is at risk of becoming the chessboard on which struggles between the US and China play out, rather than a player in its own right. How it navigates the enlargement debate – including its success in updating and streamlining decision-making – will help determine whether this risk materialises. – Project SyndicateAna Palacio, a former foreign minister of Spain and former senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank Group, is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University.

When South Korea hosts the first trilateral summit with China and Japan in four years beginning tomorrow, the three neighbours may struggle to go beyond surface-level diplomacy after years of deteriorating ties, diplomats and officials said.Still, even handshakes would help maintain at least some high-level diplomacy after a pause since the last such summit in 2019, according to officials and members of the diplomatic community in Seoul and Tokyo.President Yoon Suk-yeol will have bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tomorrow, then hold their three-way gathering on Monday.The absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping effectively keeps military, foreign affairs, and security issues off the agenda, said Kang Jun-young, director of Center for International Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.On the agenda are economics and trade, climate change, cultural exchanges, health and ageing populations, science, and disaster response, according to Yoon’s office.But the gathering will be constrained by the global concerns that have increasingly divided US-allied South Korea and Japan from China.“I’ve been doing this for a long time — there are lots of bilateral issues between the countries, but there isn’t anything we can do as a group,” said one diplomat based in the region. “We compete on a lot of things and obviously South Korea and Japan are US allies so that makes things extra challenging.” The diplomat said the summit would be mostly “cultural” and borderline meaningless, but that China would likely seek something about supply chain stability in the joint statement.One South Korean official said just having the three countries meet again after a long time is meaningful by itself.Even without breakthroughs on the toughest issues, the summit could make progress in areas of practical co-operation like people-to-people exchanges and consular matters, he said.“That’s important as it could have a direct impact on people’s lives,” the official said.Two Japanese foreign ministry officials also said they did not expect any big announcements from the meeting and that it was important for optics that the summit resumed after a long gap.A Japanese government official said on Friday that the countries had yet to decide whether they would release a joint statement, in part because simply setting up the meeting had faced scheduling difficulties.The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic proceedings.China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a briefing on Thursday that Beijing hopes the talks “will inject new impetus into the trilateral co-operation and provide better ways towards mutual benefit for the three countries.”Observers say to make any progress on even baseline issues, Beijing will need to address South Korean and Japanese concerns about the increasing difficulty of operating or doing business in China. South Korean diplomats routinely complain about the minimal level of access they get to senior officials in Beijing. They have also watched apprehensively in recent months as China’s partners, Russia and North Korea, have become increasingly close.Japanese sources based in Beijing say they are most concerned about visas, safety of staff, and IP protection, as well as the future of auto exports to China in coming years.Akira Amari, a senior Japanese ruling party lawmaker and former trade minister, who advises a parliamentary group promoting relations between Japan and China, said Tokyo needed to have frank discussions with Beijing so “that proper relations can continue and unnecessary tensions don’t increase”.

One passenger died of a suspected heart attack and 30 others were injured after a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore hit severe turbulence on Tuesday, forcing the Boeing 777-300ER jet to divert to Bangkok, authorities said.What is turbulence?Turbulence or pockets of disturbed air can have many causes, most obviously the unstable weather patterns that trigger storms, according to an industry briefing by planemaker Airbus. The resulting water particles can be detected by weather radar.Singapore Airlines did not immediately say what type of turbulence was involved. Tracking service FlightRadar24 said there were storms – some severe – in the area at the time....and clear air turbulence?Known by its abbreviation CAT, this is a sudden and severe swirl that causes violent buffeting of a plane even where there are no clouds, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.Such invisible pockets of air can appear without warning and are hard to predict. Mark Prosser of the University of Reading said Tuesday’s event most likely involved convective or storm-related turbulence, but stressed it was too early to be certain.An investigation has been launched and experts stress aircraft accidents typically involve a combination of factors.How common is it?Turbulence-related incidents are common, according to a 2021 study by the US National Transportation Safety Board.From 2009 through 2018, it found that turbulence accounted for more than a third of reported events and most resulted in one or more serious injuries, but no aircraft damage.Yet fatal turbulence in air travel remains extremely rare.“It is a very unusual and rare event. As far as I can tell it is over 25 years since a passenger was killed by commercial airliner turbulence,” said Paul Hayes, director of safety at UK-based aviation data group Cirium Ascend.The last fatal turbulence-related accident on Cirium’s database involved a United Airlines Boeing 747 in 1997.How do pilots respond?Crews plan ahead by studying turbulence and other weather forecasts, which have improved over the years, loading extra fuel when needed and monitoring weather radar during flight.But sometimes violent CAT leaves little time to react.“If it’s unexpected then it’s a bit late. You hope to get warnings from other aircraft in the area and slow down to make sure the effects are minimised,” said retired pilot Hugh Dibley, an expert on aircraft upsets at the Royal Aeronautical Society.Which planes are best for turbulence?In terms of their structure, all modern commercial jets are built to cope with forces many times those experienced in-flight, Hayes said.But according to Swedish turbulence-forecasting website Turbli, the feeling experienced by passengers varies from plane to plane and seat to seat.Long planes can feel most turbulent at the back and the ideal spot is around the centre of gravity, which is typically just ahead of the wings.Boeing’s high-tech 787-9, with a “Gust Alleviation System” from Honeywell, ranks first for handling turbulence, according to Turbli. Next is the Airbus A340-500/600, though the four-engined model is no longer widely used due to fuel costs.The Boeing 777 family is widely seen as having a strong safety record – excluding Malaysia Airlines MH17 which was downed by a missile over Ukraine and the mystery disappearance of MH370, both in 2014. It is equipped with traditional weather radar but does not have the newer 787’s alleviation system.What does it mean for seatbelts?US airline pilot and flight attendant unions told Reuters the incident highlights the importance of following crew instructions and wearing seatbelt whenever seated.But they cautioned that leaving the seatbelt sign on all the time could erode its significance and that passengers could start ignoring it.Among the most exposed to injury are crew who must tour the cabin to check seatbelts have been fastened when signs go on.Is there any new technology?Nasa says it is developing an early-warning system that relies on ground-mounted infrasonic microphones to detect clear-air turbulence hundreds of miles away.Austria-based tech startup Turbulence Solutions says it is developing technologies to eliminate up to 80% of turbulence.But industry experts caution any new aircraft systems must be proven to work to a high level of reliability and it takes years of rigorous testing before technology can be validated. Airlines must usually agree to foot the bill for any upgrades.Is climate change to blame?A spate of turbulence reports has triggered a debate over whether climate change may be causing more turbulence.A report from the University of Reading last year suggested turbulence could worsen with climate change.“Our latest future projections indicate a doubling or trebling of severe turbulence in the jet streams in the coming decades, if the climate continues to change as we expect,” said Professor Paul Williams, one of the authors.However, he told Fox News that while there seems to be a strong correlation, more research is needed.“It’s too early to definitively blame climate change for the recent apparent increases in turbulence. Increased media coverage, aided by in-flight video footage from passengers’ mobile phones, may well be a factor,” Williams added.

The helicopter in the crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was a US-made Bell 212, a model introduced in 1968 during the Vietnam War and last produced in 1998.Here is what we know about the Bell 212:Decades-old helicopterBrought into service in 1971, the civilian helicopter had a military version known as Twin Huey, which was used by US troops during the Vietnam conflict.One of its variants, the Huey UH-1 Iroquois, gained notoriety in an iconic scene in the film Apocalypse Now during which US troops play Richard Wagner’s The Ride of the Valkyries on loudspeakers during a raid on a Vietnamese village.The Bell 212 can carry 13 passengers plus two pilots and fly at more than 250km 156 miles per hour, with a range of more than 400km.It features a two-blade propeller and is equipped with two Pratt and Whitney engines of 900 horsepower each.The helicopter was first manufactured in Fort Worth, Texas, before production moved to Mirabel, outside Montreal, from 1988 until 1998, the last year it wast built. It was also made under license in Italy by Agusta.As of last year, 704 Bell 212 or Bell 412 — its four-blade version — were still in service among armed forces, including in Angola, Argentina, Morocco, Turkiye and Zambia, according to the most recent annual report of industry publication FlightGlobal.Flying under sanctionsAs of 2023, Iran operated 10 Bell 212 helicopters — two used by the air force and the remainder by the navy, according to FlightGlobal.Tehran was an important client for the American civilian and military aircraft industry under the Shah of Iran, a close US ally, until his ouster by the Islamic revolution in 1979.Iran has sought to keep its ageing fleet in the air despite US sanctions that have it made very difficult for Tehran to obtain spare parts.It still has around 40 F-14 Tomcat fighter jets, which became famous in the Tom Cruise film Top Gun in the 1980s and have been used by the US Air Force itself for two decades.Iran also has a number of F5 fighters, purchased from the United States four decades ago and which first came into service 60 years ago.The Bell makerThe Bell company, which was founded in 1935 and became a subsidiary of industrial group Textron in 1960, still produces helicopters.The firm prides itself on having been the first to certify a helicopter intended for civilian use, in 1946.A year later it was an experimental Bell X-1 aircraft that Chuck Yeager piloted as he became the first man to surpass the speed of sound in 1947.

A guideline for US doctors to ignore race in assessing lung health will likely have profound effects beyond the intended improvements in medical care, such as increasing disability payments and disease diagnoses for Black patients while boosting their job disqualifications, a study found on Sunday.Asian and Black patients will move forward on US lung transplant waiting lists, with 4.3 fewer days of expected wait time, while Hispanic and white candidates will move back, having to wait 1.1 days longer on average, according to a report of the study in the New England Journal of Medicine.US diagnoses of nonobstructive lung disorders, such as chronic bronchitis, will likely jump 141% for Black patients and fall 69% for white patients, the researchers found in the report presented at the annual meeting in San Diego of the American Thoracic Society, the premier society for lung doctors.Annual disability payments for Black military veterans will likely rise by more than $1bn and fall by $500mn for white veterans, the researchers estimated.Black people had been assumed for hundreds of years to naturally have smaller lungs than white people, meaning a given amount of air going into and out of the lungs could appear to show impaired lung function in white patients and normal function in Black patients.Traditional race-based equations for interpreting the results of spirometry, the most commonly used type of pulmonary function test, therefore grew from the idea that “normal” differs by race.Experts now believe smaller lung capacities in some nonwhite populations may be due to environmental exposures to pollution, poor nutrition, and other risk factors.New, race-neutral equations for determining lung function – taking into account height, age and gender but not race – aim to help correct such inequities. The guideline advising use of race-neutral formulas was issued last year by the thoracic society.These equations “offer an opportunity to move beyond crude proxies like race and the associated assumption that these differences in lung function are benign,” said Dr Raj Manrai of Harvard Medical School in Boston, the senior author of the study.The results of the new equations could be complex. If they reveal more severe lung impairment, surgeons might be less likely to recommend potentially curative surgeries, but this may prevent surgical complications in patients who are at higher risk than previously recognised, the researchers found.The new research is the first large study to quantify the likely effects of how the new equations will shift millions of people to one side or another of eligibility thresholds for treatments and socioeconomic benefits, said Dr Meredith McCormack of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, Maryland, who co-authored an accompanying editorial.The study’s analysis of data on more than 369,000 US and British residents found the new formulas would likely reclassify 12.5mn US patients as having or not having various degrees of breathing impairment.The new equations will reclassify medical impairment ratings for 8.16mn people; eligibility for jobs, such as firefighter, requiring a certain level of lung function for 2.28mn; grading of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases for 2.05mn; and military disability compensation eligibility for 413,000, the researchers estimated.Changes to patients’ classifications could affect their eligibility for trials of new treatments, the researchers said.The impact on medical outcomes and whether the advantages outweigh the disadvantages will not be known for years, said Dr David Kaminsky of the University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine in Burlington, who co-authored the editorial.“We’re going to have to wait and see,” Kaminsky said.

In Russia, if a public figure is being prosecuted or punished, two things used to be true: they oppose Vladimir Putin’s rule or his “special military operation” in Ukraine, and they are not a high-ranking official.The arrest last month of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov for allegedly accepting a bribe ominously defied these rules of thumb. It also highlights deepening tensions among powerful groups in Russia amid a lack of coherent leadership from the despot in charge.Make no mistake: Putin has no serious challengers. When he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 22, 2022, even his own Security Council was surprised. Russia’s political and business elites were then forced to sacrifice many of their pre-war privileges and start building a new Russia that corresponded to Putin’s vision of history and international relations. They had no choice.If the elites have no choice, ordinary Russians certainly do not. When they learned of the invasion, they poured into the streets to protest, only to be faced with a harsh crackdown. The protests mostly stopped, and Russians resigned themselves to an unwanted war, a declining quality of life, and worsening development prospects. Many began quietly relocating their businesses and moving their money to places like Armenia or Kazakhstan.Putin has made plenty of pronouncements about his war goals, from achieving the “denazification” and “demilitarisation” of Ukraine to standing up to the West as it attacks “traditional values” and violates the international laws that it enforces on others. According to Putin, Russia – together with emerging-economy partners like China and Brazil – is leading the creation of a new multipolar world order.What Putin has not offered is a clear strategy for achieving these goals. Nor has he provided Russians any vision of how they should live, or how Russia should operate, within this new world order. With no shared roadmap to follow, many Russian actors are being forced to improvise, often in ways that conflict. For example, as the Kremlin pushes “de-privatisation,” or the nationalisation of private firms deemed relevant to national security, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, is fighting to limit state involvement in business wherever possible, in order to forestall the collapse of Russia’s fast-shrinking market economy.Conflicts are perhaps most apparent within the military establishment. Last year’s rebellion by the late Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is a case in point. Prigozhin did not want to take down Putin, but he did want Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s head. And given the centrality of Wagner mercenaries to the Russian war effort, he was convinced that he could get it. Instead, he and several other Wagner leaders perished when their airplane exploded in midair two months after the aborted coup.This brings us to Ivanov, a longtime ally of Shoigu who amassed an enormous fortune overseeing construction, property management, housing, and procurement for Russia’s military, and who topped the list of Russia’s richest civil servants, with an annual household income of 136.7mn roubles (then $2mn).All those riches did not go unnoticed. Already in 2019, an investigation by Proekt Media highlighted major discrepancies between Ivanov’s reported income and his wealth. Back then, a useful apparatchik like Ivanov was unlikely to face punishment as he was nothing if not useful. Under his leadership, Oboronstroy, the Defense Ministry’s largest infrastructure and construction holding, rapidly built the Sevastopol Presidential Cadet School following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Ivanov also impressed Putin with the quick construction of the Defence Ministry’s military-themed Patriot Park, which opened in 2016, and of a mammoth cathedral, dedicated to the armed forces, on the park’s grounds.But with the Ukraine war dragging on, and Russia gripped by uncertainty, the state is no longer the monolith it once was, and powerful groups seem increasingly willing to break the unspoken rule against public infighting. This includes Rosguard (the national guard), the FSB (the internal security service), and the FSO (the security service for government officials), which allegedly were also behind Prigozhin’s mutiny.In March, Putin gave the FSB a mandate to fight corruption. FSB leaders seem to have concluded that this was an ideal opportunity to weaken the Ministry of Defence, beginning with its richest and most ostentatious leaders. Going after Ivanov made it easier to undermine Shoigu, who somewhat predictably just lost his post as defence minister. He gave way to a potentially more effective minister, Andrei Belousov, a former economist. Belousov was in charge of the economy in Putin’s previous government, and his appointment suggests a drive toward efficient and sustainable militarisation of Russia’s economy.Shoigu, for his part, has assumed a ceremonial position atop the Security Council, which only the president controls. Moreover, Shoigu’s alleged nemesis, General Aleksei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region and once a supporter of Prigozhin, has moved up, becoming Putin’s aid responsible for military production.These reshuffles suggest that the Kremlin seeks to strengthen the state’s organisation around the war agenda. But intra-elite discord does not bode well for Putin. Russian history suggests that policies pursued without sufficient consultation or clarity can become a threat to a leader’s rule, with support quickly turning into opposition.After succeeding Joseph Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev denounced his predecessor and decided unilaterally to launch de-Stalinisation. In support of his anti-repression agenda he appointed the Belousov-like civilians Aleksandr Shelepin and Vladimir Semichastny to head the KGB. Unlike the Ukraine war, de-Stalinisation was a worthy endeavour. But it would have been more widely embraced with a country-wide debate about the role in Stalin’s crimes of all his lieutenants, including Khrushchev, and an effort to build a broad consensus. That didn’t happen, and hardliners, along with Shelepin and Semichastny, ousted Khrushchev in 1964.Similarly, Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika was viewed as a “czarist” policy imposed on the Soviet nomenklatura from above. Gorbachev wanted to free Russia from the shackles of communism, but offered no viable blueprint for the future he desired, and he also reshuffled bumbling apparatchiks, with hollow results. Ultimately, the programme fatally undermined the Soviet Union – but not before spurring resentful hardliners to attempt a coup in 1991.Putin admires Stalin, not Khrushchev or Gorbachev. But it is from Khrushchev and Gorbachev that he might learn the most.— Project SyndicateNina L Khrushcheva, Professor of International Affairs at The New School, is the co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler) of In Putin’s Footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire Across Russia’s Eleven Time Zones.

An autonomous, or self-driving, vehicle is defined by the University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems as one that uses “technology to partially or entirely replace the human driver in navigating a vehicle from an origin to a destination while avoiding road hazards and responding to traffic conditions.”The terms “autonomous” and “self-driving cars” are often used interchangeably.Two decades ago, the US military kicked off the race to build a self-driving car by sending a fleet of fledgling robot vehicles across the Mojave Desert in its seminal Darpa challenge.Ten years later, the auto industry was buzzing with predictions that self-driving cars would be all over the roads by now.That hasn’t happened. But the industry has started to put limited bits of automation, such as hands-free driving and crash-avoidance systems, into mass-produced models.And although a few companies are making progress toward fully autonomous vehicles — Alphabet’s Waymo recently expanded its robotaxi service to a third major US city — others have abandoned the technology, citing excessive costs and complexity.The industry had a rough 2023.General Motors’ self-driving Cruise unit suffered the most notable setback in October, when one of its robotaxis struck a pedestrian in San Francisco. As an alternatives to full autonomy, advanced driver-assistance systems — known as ADAS — help drivers park, stay in their lane and avoid objects using cameras, radar and other electronic sensors. They can alert drivers and in some cases briefly take control of the car to avoid collisions.The industry categorises automation systems from Level 0 to 5. Level 0 features simply pass on information to the driver, like sounding a warning when you’re driving out of a traffic lane.Tesla’s Autopilot is classified as Level 2 because it requires constant driver input and supervision, much in the way a pilot oversees certain automated systems in an airplane cockpit.Mercedes-Benz is offering Level 3 autonomy — which requires neither hands on the steering wheel nor eyes on the road — in select vehicles under certain conditions in parts of Germany and the US.Robotaxis that are being tested in confined areas in the US and China could be categorised as more advanced Level 4 systems, but these vehicles are limited in terms of where they can go.The pinnacle — which has yet to be achieved — would be Level 5 cars that can drive autonomously everywhere and in all conditions.Fatal crashes involving ADAS attract a lot of attention, especially if Tesla is involved. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened dozens of investigations into crashes involving ADAS since 2016, most of them involving Teslas.Ford Motor and Volkswagen shut down their self-driving business Argo AI in October 2022, a dramatic turn of events for a business that had more than 2,000 workers and for a time was considering an initial public offering.Apple sank billions into trying to develop a vehicle with Level 4 or even Level 5 capability before deciding in February to shut down its car project. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration initiated two probes just last week into Waymo and Zoox, the driverless technology subsidiaries of Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com.The investigations point to a more hands-on approach by a regulator that’s been relatively forbearing of automated-driving systems until recently.There’s still hope for the industry in 2024: Technology leaders such as Waymo and China’s Baidu are expanding services to new cities. In Texas, Aurora Innovation, Kodiak Robotics and Gatik AI expect to dispatch autonomous trucks by the end of the year, ditching human safety drivers after years of testing.China has been a hotbed of innovation thanks to dozens of startups and robust regulatory support.

For Ukrainian gun commander Oleksandr Kozachenko, the long-awaited US ammunition can’t come fast enough as he and his comrades struggle to hold off relentless Russian attacks.His unit’s US-supplied M777 howitzer, which once hurled 100 shells a day at the encroaching enemy, is now often reduced to fewer than 10.“It’s a luxury if we can fire 30 shells.”America says it’s rushing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following the delayed approval of a $61bn aid package by Congress last month. As of early May, though, two artillery units visited by Reuters on the eastern frontline said they were still waiting for a boost in deliveries and operating at a fraction of the rate they need to hold back the Russians.Gunners with Kozachenko’s 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannons, which had given them an edge over Russia earlier in the war.Resurgent Russian forces, which significantly outnumber and outgun the Ukrainian defenders, have been mounting multiple attacks across the eastern Donbas region in recent months and along the country’s northeastern border last week.The drive has marked an inflection point in the conflict spawned by Russia’s full-scale invasion more than two years ago.Russia has gained more territory in 2024 than it lost control of during Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, according to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content from the war.Moscow’s forces have claimed 654sq km since the beginning of this year, outstripping the 414sq km lost to Ukraine between June 1 and October 1 last year, Paroinen said. Russia has gained 222sq km of territory since only May 2, he added.Russia’s defence ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment for this article, while Ukraine’s military didn’t immediately respond.Colonel Pavlo Palisa, whose 93rd Mechanised Brigade is fighting near the key strategic city of Chasiv Yar, said he believed Russia was preparing a major push to break Ukrainian lines in the east. This echoed the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces who said last week he expected the war to enter a critical phase over the next two months as Moscow tries to exploit persistent delays in weapons supplies to Kyiv.“Without a doubt, this will be a difficult period for the armed forces,” said Palisa, adding that he believes the Kremlin wants to capture the entire Donbas industrial region by the end of this year.Russian forces are gradually making inroads that could come to threaten several big cities in the east including Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which serve as key military hubs for Kyiv’s war effort.Some gains are striking fear in the heart of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living in those Donetsk region cities as the enemy grinds ever closer.“We live only for today,” said 31-year-old school teacher Nina Shyshymarieva, standing with her young daughter outside a church in Kostiantynivka as artillery thundered in the distance.“We don’t know what will happen tomorrow.”Russian cannons are now easily within range of Kostiantynivka; the closest Russian position at the start of 2024 was about 20km away, according to open-source maps that show shifting positions along the frontline. Now it is 14km.Shyshymarieva and the fighters on the frontline were among more than a dozen soldiers, commanders, residents and evacuation volunteers interviewed by Reuters in eastern Ukraine over the last two weeks. They painted a picture of deep uncertainty.Much of the Donetsk region, which along with Luhansk makes up the greater Donbas area, is under daily bombardment, typically targeted at least a dozen times a day by Russian artillery or air strikes, according to regional governor Vadym Filashkin.Ruins of homes, apartment blocks and administrative buildings are common sights in towns and cities.Oleksandr Stasenko, a volunteer rescuer, said his team was receiving more evacuation requests particularly from Kostiantynivka and Kurakhove, another town further south, among other settlements.Russian forces have encroached toward Kurakhove, too, advancing 2-3km along the road running east from the town so far this year.“Wherever the front line is approaching, people in those places are trying to leave as soon as possible,” said Stasenko, adding that his group, East SOS, evacuates around two dozen a week, many of them elderly or infirm.Ukraine has roughly 1,000km of frontlines to defend in the east, north and south.Some of the fiercest fighting in 2024 has centred on Chasiv Yar, which commands important high ground 12km away from Kostiantynivka. It lies west of the devastated city of Bakhmut that Moscow seized last year after months of costly combat.Russian advances near Chasiv Yar, and further south around the village of Ocheretyne, could drive wedges into territory relied upon by Ukraine’s war planners for logistics, analysts said, because they would expose key roads to Russian fire.A major highway leading west out of Kostiantynivka is already under threat. Cutting it off entirely would mean transit hubs further north, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both numbering well over 100,000 people before the war, would lose a crucial supply line.Russia’s fresh assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region, which began on Friday, also risks diverting stretched Ukrainian forces from the eastern front, further compromising their ability to hold the line, according to said Emil Kastehelmi, another analyst at Black Bird Group.“At the moment, it seems the goal of the (Kharkiv) operation is to cause confusion and tie remaining Ukrainian reserves to areas of lesser importance,” he said.Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the London-based RUSI think-tank, said Russian forces would likely mount further attacks on northern and southern points of the frontline in order to stretch Kyiv’s defences.“Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas,” he wrote in a May 14 commentary.A new law strengthening Kyiv’s mobilisation effort, which has been hobbled by public scepticism, takes effect on May 18. Experts and commanders say it could take several months before fresh recruits reach the front and reinforce exhausted troops there.Even if Ukrainian forces can hold out until all the American ammunition and weapons get through to the front, the challenge ahead remains daunting, according to many of those fighting.“I would say that it is unlikely that time is on our side, since a long war requires more resources,” said Palisa, the colonel with the 93rd Mechanised Brigade, speaking hours after Russia launched its ground incursion in Kharkiv.He added that it would be critical to impose as heavy a cost on Russia as quickly as possible.“The enemy’s resources, whether in terms of manpower or the materiel, cannot be compared with ours. It’s extraordinarily large. That is why a long war, I think, is not in our favour.” — Reuters

Berta Garcia feels exhausted and ill after eight years of searching for her son Manuel — one of the more than 100,000 people missing in violence-wracked Mexico. With little hope of finding Manuel alive, she is in no mood to listen to candidates’ security proposals ahead of presidential and legislative elections coming up on June 2. Politicians are full of promises “but when the time comes they don’t fulfil them,” said Garcia, whose son disappeared in 2016 in the northern border state of Chihuahua. Spiralling criminal violence has seen more than 450,000 people murdered since the government of then president Felipe Calderon launched a controversial military offensive against drug cartels in 2006. Many Mexicans see insecurity as the most urgent challenge for the next government, according to surveys. Outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has prioritised addressing the root causes of crime such as poverty and inequality — a policy that the left-wing populist calls “hugs not bullets.” Despite his efforts, Mexico’s homicide rate remains above 23 per 100,000 inhabitants, higher than the Latin American average, according to the InSight Crime think tank. Powerful cartels control swathes of Mexico and are involved not just in drug trafficking but other crimes including people smuggling, extortion and fuel theft. Criminals “are realising that it’s possible for them to grow more because there’s no strategy to stop it,” Falko Ernst, an analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, told AFP. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor at George Mason University in the United States, described the security situation as “a very serious problem that is not going to be solved by providing resources for the youth.” Ruling-party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum — who appears on course to become Mexico’s first woman president — wants to continue Lopez Obrador’s strategy of tackling crime at its roots. “Instead of declaring war (on drug cartels), we build peace,” she said. The former Mexico City mayor has pledged to strengthen the National Guard as well as intelligence agencies, and to improve co-ordination with police and prosecutors. Opposition hopeful Xochitl Galvez has put insecurity at the heart of her campaign, saying: “Hugs for criminals are over.” She has vowed to capture most-wanted criminals, recruit more police, and ensure that they receive an adequate salary in a country where corruption is considered rife among poorly paid security personnel. Galvez has pledged to double the size of the National Guard, withdraw soldiers from civilian projects to focus on fighting criminal groups, and to build a new maximum security prison. For justice to be served, judges, police, prosecutors and intelligence agencies must co-ordinate better — something that Sheinbaum made progress on as Mexico City mayor from 2018-2023, according to experts. The challenge is to do so across the country of 129mn people, which would require considerable resources to repair a “broken justice chain,” said Carlos Rodriguez, an independent security and intelligence consultant. A major issue is corruption within the criminal justice system, experts say. “If we don’t fight corruption and impunity, things are not going to be solved,” Correa-Cabrera said at a roundtable hosted by the Wilson Center. Ernst thinks the issue could be tackled with the creation of enclaves where uncorrupted state actors could work and focus resources on Mexico’s most violent regions. Mexico is already under strong pressure from US President Joe Biden’s administration to curb trafficking in illicit fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is considered responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths each year. With the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House if he wins the US election in November, experts say even stronger pressure on drug trafficking and other issues is a real possibility. “Mexico has to have a Plan B ready to comprehensively rethink the bilateral relationship in light of this scenario,” said Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States. Correa-Cabrera sees a Trump comeback as a potential “game changer” in Mexican-US relations. “If he gets elected there’s going to be more pressure for ‘mano dura’ (tough) policies,” she said, while noting that Trump previously had an “extremely stable” relationship with Lopez Obrador.

As the United States intensifies efforts to reduce trade with China by hiking tariffs, it has greatly boosted imports from Vietnam, which relies on Chinese input for much of its exports, data show.The surge in the China-Vietnam-US trade has vastly widened trade imbalances, with the Southeast Asian country last year posting a surplus with Washington close to $105bn — 2.5 times bigger than in 2018 when the Trump administration first put heavy tariffs on Chinese goods.Vietnam now has the fourth-highest trade surplus with the United States, lower only than China, Mexico and the European Union.The increasingly symbiotic relationship emerges from trade, customs and investment data reviewed by Reuters from the United Nations, the US, Vietnam and China, and is confirmed by preliminary estimates from the World Bank and half a dozen economists and supply chains experts.It shows that Vietnam’s export boom has been fuelled by imports from neighbouring China, with inflows from China almost exactly matching the value and swings of exports to the United States in recent years.In preliminary estimates shared with Reuters, the World Bank reckons a 96% correlation between the two flows, up from 84% before Donald Trump’s presidency.“The surge in Chinese imports in Vietnam coinciding with the increase in Vietnamese exports to the US may be seen by the US as Chinese firms using Vietnam to skirt the additional tariffs imposed on their goods,” said Darren Tay, lead economist at research firm BMI, noting that could lead to tariffs against Vietnam after US elections.The growing trade imbalance comes as Vietnam seeks to obtain market economy status in Washington after President Joe Biden pushed to elevate diplomatic ties with its former foe.At over $114bn last year, US imports of goods from Vietnam were more than twice as big as in 2018 when the Sino-American trade war began, which boosted the Southeast Asian nation’s appeal among manufacturers and traders who sought to reduce risks linked to China-US tensions.That surge accounted for more than half the $110bn drop since 2018 in imports from Beijing, US trade data show.In key industries such as textiles and electric equipment, “Vietnam captured more than 60% of China’s loss,” said Nguyen Hung, a specialist in supply chains at RMIT University Vietnam.But Chinese input remains crucial, as much of what Vietnam exports to Washington is made of parts and components produced in China, data show.Imported components accounted in 2022 for about 80% of the value of Vietnam’s export of electronics — the US’s main import from Hanoi — according to data from the Asian Development Bank.One-third of Vietnam’s imports come from China, mostly electronics and components, according to Vietnam data which did not provide further detail.Around 90% of intermediate goods imported by Vietnam’s electronics and textile industries in 2020 were subsequently “embodied in exports”, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a report, noting that was higher than a decade earlier and far above the average in industrialised countries.The symbiotic relationship is reflected in latest data: In the first quarter of this year, US imports from Vietnam amounted to $29bn, while Vietnam’s imports from China totalled $30.5bn, mirroring similarly corresponding flows in past quarters and years.As inflation remains high, the White House has remained quiet on Vietnam’s large trade surplus, but that may change after the November vote, analysts say.“A possible scenario is that after elections, whoever wins may change the policy towards Vietnam,” said Nguyen Ba Hung, principal economist at ADB’s Vietnam mission, noting that would however raise US import costs.The US embassy in Hanoi declined to comment on trade imbalances.Vietnam’s foreign and trade ministries did not reply to requests for comment.China’s commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Cotton and panelsThe surge in the China-Vietnam-US trade reflects the rise in investments in the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub, as companies relocate some activities from China.Many of those manufacturers are Chinese firms that add value in their new factories in Northern Vietnam but still rely heavily on supply chains from their homeland.But in some cases the trade involves finished products labelled as “Made in Vietnam” despite no value being added in the country, as the US Department of Commerce concluded in an investigation over solar panels last year. A separate probe on aluminium cables and second on allegedly unfairly subsidised solar panels are underway.Another reason Vietnam is drawing US scrutiny is its exposure to Xinjiang, the Chinese region from where the US bans imports over accusations of human rights violations against minority Uyghurs.Xinjiang is China’s main source of cotton and polysilicon used in solar panels. Both are key for Vietnam’s industry, whose exports of cotton apparel and solar panels accounted for about 9% of exports to the US last year.Vietnam is the country with the highest volume of shipments by value denied entry into the US over Uyghur forced labour risks, according to US customs data.Vietnam’s import of raw cotton from China fell by 11% last year to 214,000 tonnes, but it was roughly twice as big as in 2018.China also exported to Vietnam at least $1.5bn-worth of cotton apparel, up from nearly $1.3bn in 2022. Meanwhile, US imports of cotton clothes from Vietnam fell by 25% to $5.3bn last year, according to the data, which may not include all cotton items.The fall in US imports came as Vietnam last year surpassed China as the main exporter of products covered by the Xinjiang ban, said Hung Nguyen of RMIT. — Reuters

Given that coral reefs support some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet and peoples’ livelihoods, food security, and safety, it is a matter of grave concern that the massive coral bleaching episode signalled by US authorities last month is expanding and deepening in reefs around the globe, as scientists warned last Thursday. Amid record ocean temperatures, coral bleaching has been recorded in 62 countries and territories since February 2023, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said — an increase of nine from its warning in April.“This event is still growing in size and impacts,” Derek Manzello, co-ordinator for NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch programme, told a press briefing, adding: “This is not something that would be happening without climate change.”New coral damage since NOAA’s April 15 warning was reported in India, Sri Lanka and the Chagos islands in the Indian Ocean, Manzello said.Severe or prolonged heat stress leads to corals dying off, though there is a possibility for recovery if temperatures drop and other stressors such as overfishing and pollution are reduced. Thousands of marine animals depend on coral reefs for survival, including some species of sea turtles, fish, crabs, shrimp, jellyfish, sea birds, starfish, and more. Coral reefs provide shelter, spawning grounds, and protection from predators. They also support organisms at the base of ocean food chains. As reef ecosystems collapse, already at-risk species may face extinction.Coral reefs are natural barriers that absorb the force of waves and storm surges, keeping coastal communities safe. Without them, we must rely on manmade seawalls that are expensive, less effective, and environmentally damaging to construct. Bleached coral also compounds the overfishing crisis by removing links in the food web and depriving some fish and crustacean species of a place to spawn and develop. Anyone relying on these animals as a primary source of income or protein will be in trouble. Reef tourism brings in billions of dollars each year and supports thousands of jobs. Bleached coral reefs, devoid of magnificent marine species, jeopardise it allCoral bleaching happens when corals lose their vibrant colours and turn white. But there’s a lot more to it than that. Coral are bright and colourful because of microscopic algae called zooxanthellae, which live within the coral in a mutually beneficial relationship, each helping the other survive. But when the ocean environment changes — if it gets too hot, for instance — the coral stresses out and expels the algae. As the algae leaves, the coral fades until it looks like it’s been bleached. If the temperature stays high, the coral won’t let the algae back, and the coral will die.The leading cause of coral bleaching is climate change. A warming planet means a warming ocean, and a change in water temperature — as little as 2 degrees Fahrenheit — can cause coral to drive out algae. Coral may bleach for other reasons, like extremely low tides, pollution, or too much sunlight. Coral bleaching matters because once these corals die, reefs rarely come back. With few corals surviving, they struggle to reproduce, and entire reef ecosystems, on which people and wildlife depend, deteriorate.Bleaching also matters because it’s not an isolated phenomenon. According to the NOAA, between 2014 and 2017 around 75% of the world’s tropical coral reefs experienced heat-stress severe enough to trigger bleaching. For 30% of the world’s reefs, that heat-stress was enough to kill coral. The ongoing mass coral bleaching is the world’s fourth on record, with three others occurring between 1998 to 2017.Some 60.5% of the world’s reefs have experienced bleach-level heat in the last 12 months, a record, according to NOAA. The previous widespread global bleaching, which occurred from 2014 to 2017, retains the record for the greatest cumulative impact — for now.