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If the past three years have taught us anything, it is that low inflation cannot be taken for granted. Even though US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for price stability, former president Donald Trump’s advisers are discussing a new and dangerous approach to monetary policy. If implemented during a second Trump presidency, it would undo the decades of hard work that allowed the Fed to reduce annualised inflation by nearly four percentage points since 2022, to roughly 3%, at little or no cost to the real economy.Trump’s advisers are reportedly considering two complementary policy changes. One proposal reportedly involves increasing direct presidential control over the Fed’s interest-rate decisions and rulemaking. Simultaneously, Trump’s trade team, led by former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, apparently wants to weaken the dollar’s exchange rate.While some Trump advisers have denied any plans to devalue the dollar, Trump’s preference for lower interest rates and a weaker currency was evident during his first term. The proposed policies would make it easier for him to override the Fed’s independence and achieve both objectives. The result would be a potent inflationary cocktail.Trump’s desire for a weaker dollar is driven by his belief, shared by Lighthizer, that the dollar is “too strong.” This, in turn, makes US exports expensive in foreign markets and imports cheaper for American consumers, resulting in a large trade deficit. Both Trump and Lighthizer see this as problematic because, in the absence of balanced trade where imports equal exports in value, the United States is funding its trade deficit by borrowing from or effectively ceding domestic assets to foreign entities.But this interpretation reflects a myopic, 17th century understanding of trade and the economy. In reality, the inflows of money that sustain trade deficits can be used to build new factories, promote better use of existing US assets, or finance new domestic investments and enterprises, with positive spillovers to American workers and firms.To be sure, one could argue that a lower trade deficit boosts demand for US products, thereby creating jobs. But with the US already at full employment, the Fed is maintaining higher interest rates precisely to curb demand and bring inflation down. While the Fed was aided in that task by a stronger dollar, a weaker currency would have the opposite effect. Moreover, like the import tariffs favoured by Trump and Lighthizer, a weaker dollar would hurt consumers by driving up prices for goods containing imported components.Even if a weaker dollar and balanced trade were worthwhile goals, the policy options for achieving them range from infeasible to harmful. For example, the US Treasury and the Fed could purchase foreign-currency securities and sell dollar-denominated bonds. But given that the foreign-exchange market’s daily turnover is close to $8tn, these purchases would need to be implemented on a massive scale, which would expose the US government’s balance sheet to huge losses if the dollar were to strengthen.Currency-market intervention could be more effective if America’s allies supported it, as they supported the 1985 Plaza Accord. But while countries like Japan and Korea are becoming increasingly nervous about the weakness of their currencies, most others are not and would require convincing. And good luck organising a cooperative international effort while Trump is threatening to withdraw from Nato.US threats to impose tariffs on countries perceived to have weak currencies would introduce further uncertainty into global trade, potentially damaging investment and growth. Moreover, it is doubtful that any of this would significantly improve the US trade balance.Adjusting interest rates is a more reliable way to influence the dollar’s value. But given that foreign central banks are unlikely to raise interest rates and risk pushing their economies into recession just to accommodate Trump, the Fed would be under pressure to lower rates prematurely. This strategy would be inflationary and self-defeating, as higher domestic prices would offset any potential cost savings for foreign buyers that a weaker dollar might otherwise provide. Nevertheless, this might be the path of least resistance if Trump manages to establish greater presidential control over Fed policy, although it could just as easily worsen the US trade balance as improve it.A surefire way to weaken the dollar and reduce the US trade deficit is to shrink the federal government’s yawning fiscal deficit, enabling the Fed to lower interest rates sooner while controlling inflation. Although this policy would yield long-term benefits for the US and the global economy, it has virtually no political support from either Democrats or Republicans, including Trump.As global inflation spiked following the Covid-19 pandemic, some observers feared a return to the 1970s, when high and persistent inflation made economic life more unpredictable and stressful for households and businesses. Back then, it took a deep international recession to restore price stability. This time, however, inflation fell rapidly without the need for deep recessions, as supply-chain pressures eased and the Fed, along with other central banks, acted decisively to restrain demand by hiking interest rates.Central to this success was the fact that markets’ longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored. The actions of central banks, together with their consistent track records over several decades and institutional independence, fostered confidence that their efforts to tame inflation would be effective.These positive developments would have been impossible in a world where monetary policy was politicised, under presidential control, and focused on the dollar’s external value rather than its far more crucial internal value. Trump’s plans for the Fed and the dollar are a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s. — Project SyndicateMaurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley.

If the past three years have taught us anything, it is that low inflation cannot be taken for granted. Even though US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for price stability, former president Donald Trump’s advisers are discussing a new and dangerous approach to monetary policy. If implemented during a second Trump presidency, it would undo the decades of hard work that allowed the Fed to reduce annualised inflation by nearly four percentage points since 2022, to roughly 3%, at little or no cost to the real economy.Trump’s advisers are reportedly considering two complementary policy changes. One proposal reportedly involves increasing direct presidential control over the Fed’s interest-rate decisions and rulemaking. Simultaneously, Trump’s trade team, led by former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, apparently wants to weaken the dollar’s exchange rate.While some Trump advisers have denied any plans to devalue the dollar, Trump’s preference for lower interest rates and a weaker currency was evident during his first term. The proposed policies would make it easier for him to override the Fed’s independence and achieve both objectives. The result would be a potent inflationary cocktail.Trump’s desire for a weaker dollar is driven by his belief, shared by Lighthizer, that the dollar is “too strong.” This, in turn, makes US exports expensive in foreign markets and imports cheaper for American consumers, resulting in a large trade deficit. Both Trump and Lighthizer see this as problematic because, in the absence of balanced trade where imports equal exports in value, the United States is funding its trade deficit by borrowing from or effectively ceding domestic assets to foreign entities.But this interpretation reflects a myopic, 17th century understanding of trade and the economy. In reality, the inflows of money that sustain trade deficits can be used to build new factories, promote better use of existing US assets, or finance new domestic investments and enterprises, with positive spillovers to American workers and firms.To be sure, one could argue that a lower trade deficit boosts demand for US products, thereby creating jobs. But with the US already at full employment, the Fed is maintaining higher interest rates precisely to curb demand and bring inflation down. While the Fed was aided in that task by a stronger dollar, a weaker currency would have the opposite effect. Moreover, like the import tariffs favored by Trump and Lighthizer, a weaker dollar would hurt consumers by driving up prices for goods containing imported components.Even if a weaker dollar and balanced trade were worthwhile goals, the policy options for achieving them range from infeasible to harmful. For example, the US Treasury and the Fed could purchase foreign-currency securities and sell dollar-denominated bonds. But given that the foreign-exchange market’s daily turnover is close to $8tn, these purchases would need to be implemented on a massive scale, which would expose the US government’s balance sheet to huge losses if the dollar were to strengthen.Currency-market intervention could be more effective if America’s allies supported it, as they supported the 1985 Plaza Accord. But while countries like Japan and Korea are becoming increasingly nervous about the weakness of their currencies, most others are not and would require convincing. And good luck organising a cooperative international effort while Trump is threatening to withdraw from Nato.US threats to impose tariffs on countries perceived to have weak currencies would introduce further uncertainty into global trade, potentially damaging investment and growth. Moreover, it is doubtful that any of this would significantly improve the US trade balance.Adjusting interest rates is a more reliable way to influence the dollar’s value. But given that foreign central banks are unlikely to raise interest rates and risk pushing their economies into recession just to accommodate Trump, the Fed would be under pressure to lower rates prematurely. This strategy would be inflationary and self-defeating, as higher domestic prices would offset any potential cost savings for foreign buyers that a weaker dollar might otherwise provide. Nevertheless, this might be the path of least resistance if Trump manages to establish greater presidential control over Fed policy, although it could just as easily worsen the US trade balance as improve it.A surefire way to weaken the dollar and reduce the US trade deficit is to shrink the federal government’s yawning fiscal deficit, enabling the Fed to lower interest rates sooner while controlling inflation. Although this policy would yield long-term benefits for the US and the global economy, it has virtually no political support from either Democrats or Republicans, including Trump.As global inflation spiked following the COVID-19 pandemic, some observers feared a return to the 1970s, when high and persistent inflation made economic life more unpredictable and stressful for households and businesses. Back then, it took a deep international recession to restore price stability. This time, however, inflation fell rapidly without the need for deep recessions, as supply-chain pressures eased and the Fed, along with other central banks, acted decisively to restrain demand by hiking interest rates.Central to this success was the fact that markets’ longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored. The actions of central banks, together with their consistent track records over several decades and institutional independence, fostered confidence that their efforts to tame inflation would be effective.These positive developments would have been impossible in a world where monetary policy was politicised, under presidential control, and focused on the dollar’s external value rather than its far more crucial internal value. Trump’s plans for the Fed and the dollar are a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s. — Project Syndicate• Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expected the Indian economy to maintain its robust growth trajectory despite some structural challenges.In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and rapidly transforming into an engine of global growth. During the 2000-2023, which includes the volatile years of the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-pandemic, the average growth rate for the South-Asian giant was 6.5 percent. This sustained performance pushed India to become the sixth economy in the world, representing 8 percent of the global economy. Given its size, a 6.5 percent growth rate for India adds 0.52 percentage points (p.p.) to global growth. This implies that India explains an important share of the 3.2 percent global growth expected in 2024."India has been able to achieve this performance in spite of significant structural obstacles. Firms and international institutions have pointed to excessive regulation and a burdensome bureaucracy, disproportionate trade and labor market restrictions, and high transaction costs. Even with these difficulties, India's strong growth momentum is expected to continue, and contribute to bring a large share of its population to higher standards of living. In 2000, GDP per capita was USD 442, and reached USD 2,500 in 2023, within the lower middle income range according to the classification of the World Bank. In approximately one more decade, the country could surpass the threshold of upper middle income country of USD 4,465, almost 10-fold the per capita level two decades before."India is expected to maintain its firm growth trajectory and continue to be one of fastest expanding economies, with rates of 6.4 percent in the next several years."The bank pointed out, "First, high investment levels will boost aggregate demand and expand production capacity. As a share of GDP, investment has recovered from the low reached in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and during the Covid-pandemic, and is expected to remain above 30 percent in the medium term. An important part of this story is explained by the impulse given by the central and state governments to capital expenditures."The central government's budget for infrastructure has more than tripled from five years ago to USD 135 billion for the 2025 fiscal year. This figure is almost double if state-level spending is included. Infrastructure investment has a significant impact in a country with substantial needs, and will deliver a much-needed improvement of railroads, highways, electricity networks, and waterways, among other crucial infrastructure. The number of airports, for example, is expected to increase from 148 a few years ago, to 200 by next year, which is accompanying a sizable growth in airline services. In addition to reducing logistical and transportation costs, capital expenditures by the government will encourage business investment. In fact, public investment is known to have the highest multiplier on economic activity, and to be effective in incentivising private companies to invest."Second, a large, young, and growing population will provide a seemingly endless supply of labor to bolster the expanding economy. Recently, India overtook China as the most populous country in the world, after reaching 1.4 billion people. With a median age of 28 compared to 39 in China, the problem of an aging population that is becoming widespread in other countries, is distant in this South-Asian nation. Additionally, the participation rate of the labor force is only 51 percent, which is 25 p.p. below that of China. To a large extent this difference is explained by the exceptionally low participation rate of women in India at 25 percent, which is a significant 46 p.p. lower than in China. These statistics underlie the considerable potential and the encouraging trends in increasing labor supply, which will continue to support the economic growth trajectory of India.

Over the past year, growing support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has raised concerns that Germany is headed toward its most profound political crisis since the end of World War II.To be sure, the AfD, which was polling as high as 22% nationally earlier this year, has recently been shaken by scandals. But despite these setbacks, the rise of extremist movements across Europe, particularly the shocking victory of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom in the Netherlands’ 2023 election, has caused many Germans to fear that the far-right’s political ascent might be unstoppable.The growing support for parties like the AfD across Europe is often attributed to public anger over immigration and Covid-19 safety protocols, such as lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccines. The perception that governments are advancing toward a green-energy transition too quickly, potentially hurting some of the poorer segments of their populations, is also blamed. But a 2023 paper by Harvard economist Stefanie Stantcheva and others suggests that the rise of left- and right-wing populist parties is driven by a broader societal shift toward zero-sum thinking.Stantcheva and her co-authors define zero-sum thinking as the belief that for one group to gain, others must lose. Political populism, online conspiracy theories, and nativist sentiments, the authors note, “all have at their roots in the belief that one group gains at the expense of others – whether it be a global elite, the ‘deep state,’ or those from other countries.”Unsurprisingly, the authors identify a link between zero-sum thinking and support for economic redistribution and anti-immigration movements. When wealth accumulation is perceived as coming at the expense of the less fortunate, zero-sum thinkers expect the government to intervene. By contrast, those with a positive-sum mindset believe that everyone benefits when the rich get richer – a rising tide lifts all boats. Zero-sum thinkers often view immigration as inherently harmful to native-born citizens, making them more likely to support restrictive policies.What drives zero-sum thinking? The authors find that such sentiments tend to prevail during periods of economic stagnation, when resources are scarce. Conversely, societies experiencing robust economic growth and greater social mobility are significantly less likely to view the political economy in zero-sum terms.This may explain the recent sharp rise in support for the AfD. Much like other European economies, Germany had barely recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis before being hit hard by the pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Interestingly, the authors find that younger people are more prone to zero-sum thinking than their older counterparts. This tendency is closely tied to economic conditions: when young people face limited job prospects and see little chance of upward mobility, they are more likely to adopt a zero-sum mindset. Young people today, according to the study, are much more likely to have demotivating views, such as the belief that success is more dependent on luck and connections than effort. A recent trend study confirms that German young people have become more zero-sum, with 22% of people between the ages of 14 and 29 reporting that they would vote for the AfD if there were a federal election today, up from 9% in 2022.The political consequences of this shift remain unclear. While the AfD, which opposes both immigration and redistribution, does not fit neatly into the zero-sum category, a new German party aims to capitalise more consistently on zero-sum sentiments. Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, established by former members of the far-left Die Linke, is anti-immigration, pro-redistribution, and opposes economic and military support for Ukraine. It is poised to siphon voters away from the AfD, potentially curbing its rise.Nevertheless, the most effective antidotes to political populism remain robust economic growth, an abundance of opportunities for younger people, and a high degree of social mobility. Unless Germany moves away from zero-sum thinking and re-motivates its young people, reduced innovation and slower growth could cause substantial long-term economic harm.

The world is confronting an unprecedented food crisis, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and worsening climate conditions. But the problem is most acute in Africa, where 61% of the population faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022. And at a moment when effective solutions are urgently needed, policymakers are once again coalescing around the misguided belief that increased use of mineral and synthetic fertiliser is the key to boosting agricultural productivity and ending hunger on the continent.This approach can be traced back to the Abuja Declaration on Fertiliser for the Africa Green Revolution that African Union leaders endorsed in 2006. The goal was to reverse the continent’s poor yields by boosting fertiliser use from eight to 50kg per hectare within a decade. Spearheading this effort was the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), an initiative backed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other major donors. Working closely with large agribusinesses like the Norwegian-based chemical company Yara, AGRA championed the idea that distributing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers would solve Africa’s agricultural challenges.But this singular focus on synthetic fertiliser use has failed to address the complex realities of farming in Africa. A recent assessment of AGRA’s projects in Burkina Faso and Ghana found no evidence that providing chemical inputs and high-yield seeds resulted in increased production and higher incomes for smallholder farmers. Instead, many are now more vulnerable and indebted after coming to rely on expensive synthetic pesticides and fertilisers, the prices of which soared following Russia’s invasion. These farmers have become locked in a cycle of dependency, while companies like Yara reap substantial profits. Zambia is a good example. Despite being one of the largest consumers of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser in Africa, the country has not experienced a corresponding reduction in hunger and malnutrition. The view that more fertiliser means less hunger fails to address the systemic barriers to food security, such as affordability, and exacerbates existing challenges, such as soil degradation.Specifically, synthetic nitrogen fertilisers disrupt the delicate balance of the soil ecosystem – the very foundation of sustainable agriculture. These inputs have been shown to reduce the abundance and diversity of beneficial microorganisms, such as mycorrhizal fungi, which are essential for nutrient cycling and plant health. When these symbiotic relationships are disrupted, soil resilience and fertility decline. According to the World Bank, Africa is already estimated to be losing around 3% of GDP per year due to nutrient depletion and general soil degradation.In addition to undermining crop productivity, and thus dealing a devastating blow to the livelihoods and food security of millions of smallholder farmers, excessive fertiliser use also has far-reaching environmental consequences. It contributes to nitrogen pollution in water bodies, causing biodiversity loss in aquatic systems and pushing the planet past safe limits for humans. Perhaps most worryingly, research indicates that the production and application of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers accounts for roughly 2% of total global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions.As a result, chemical companies like Yara are switching to “green fertilisers,” which are produced using hydrogen derived from renewable-energy sources, rather than fossil fuel-based inputs. This allows them to continue advocating for the use of synthetic fertilisers as a solution to food insecurity in Africa (and, by extension, maintaining and expanding the market for their products), even as research points to the shortcomings of such an approach.It is true that using green hydrogen to produce fertiliser can mitigate GHG emissions. But while the production process may be less carbon-intensive, it is still highly energy-intensive. And applying fertiliser can release huge surges of nitrous oxide – a potent GHG – into the atmosphere, and can still cause soil degradation and water pollution, regardless of how it is produced. By promoting “green fertiliser” as a panacea, the industry is engaging in greenwashing – using the veneer of sustainability to protect its interests.This week, the AU’s Africa Fertiliser and Soil Health Summit in Nairobi was to address soil degradation and food insecurity. The involvement of industry giants like Yara and organisations like AGRA suggests continued adherence to a flawed model that has consistently failed to alleviate hunger and malnutrition, a concern shared by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, which represents more than 200mn stakeholders. But instead of focusing on boosting short-term soil fertility, substituting one chemical with the other, and thus endorsing the fertiliser industry’s self-serving narratives, the summit should consider longer-term goals, such as improving soil health and soil life, strengthening the resilience of farming communities, and ensuring the sustainability of food systems. — Project Syndicate

China’s exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signalling an encouraging improvement in demand at home and overseas as Beijing navigates numerous challenges in an effort to shore up a shaky economy.The data suggests a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping to stabilise fragile investor and consumer confidence, though analysts say the jury is still out on whether the trade bounce is sustainable.Shipments from China grew 1.5% year-on-year last month by value, customs data showed on Thursday, in line with the increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. They fell 7.5% in March, which marked the first contraction since November.Imports for April increased 8.4%, beating an expected 4.8% rise and reversing a 1.9% fall in March.“Export values returned to growth from contraction last month, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison,” said Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics.“After accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, we estimate that export volumes remained broadly unchanged from March,” she added.In the first quarter, both imports and exports rose 1.5% year-on-year, buoyed by better-than-expected trade data over the January-February period. But the weak March figures prompted concerns that momentum could be faltering again.And a high statistical base seemed to have weighed heavily on last month’s brighter numbers, given that production had jumped in March 2023 as many workers recovered from a wave of Covid infections.“Exports have been the bright spot in China’s economy so far this year. The weak domestic demand led to deflationary pressure, which boosts China’s export competitiveness,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.Most China watchers say that Beijing has its work cut out as consumer inflation, producer prices and bank lending for March showed that the world’s No.2 economy has a soft underbelly. Moreover, a protracted property crisis remains a drag on overall confidence, spurring calls for more policy stimulus.Rating agency Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative last month, citing risks to public finances as growth slows and government debt rises.The Politburo of the Communist Party, the party’s top decision-making body, said last month it would step up support for the economy with prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policies, including through interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios.Beijing has set an economic growth target for 2024 of around 5%, which many analysts say will be a challenge to achieve without much more stimulus.China stocks rose on Thursday off the back of the trade data, with the blue-chip CSI 300 index up 0.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index 1.1% higher after the midday break.The headline import surge might not be all linked to domestic demand as shown by some stocking-up of goods by businesses.“So far this year, the Chinese yuan depreciated the least among all major Asian currencies, which backs the strong import figures,” said Wang Dan, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. “Also, Chinese producers are stocking up on raw materials before prices go up,” she added.

The Bank of England on Thursday kept its main interest rate at a 16-year high, but hinted at a cut over the summer as UK inflation cools further and the country looks set to exit recession.“We need to see more evidence that inflation will stay low before we can cut interest rates,” BoE governor Andrew Bailey said after the central bank left borrowing costs at 5.25%, the highest level since 2008.Signalling that a rate cut was on the horizon, two members of the bank’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted at the May meeting for interest rates to be cut by 0.25 percentage points.The BoE maintained borrowing costs for a sixth meeting in a row, mirroring a wait-and-see approach by the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB).Thursday’s decision came on the eve of official data expected to show that the UK economy has exited a mild recession ahead of a general election due this year.The BoE on Thursday voiced confidence that the UK economy had grown in the first quarter, which would signal the end of a short-lived recession. “The bank is still on track for summer easing,” Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said following the rate decision.UK annual inflation fell less than expected in March — the last official reading — to 3.2%.This is well down compared with late 2022, when the rate reached a four-decade high above 11% as energy and food prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.However, the UK inflation rate remains above the BoE’s 2%, prolonging a cost-of-living crisis.“We’ve had encouraging news on inflation and we think it will fall close to our two-percent target in the next couple of months,” Bailey said on Thursday.“I’m optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.” Later addressing journalists, Bailey said that in order for inflation to stay around the target, the BoE would “likely... need to cut bank rate over the coming quarters”.Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, concluded that while “a June rate cut can’t now be ruled out... August remains more probable”.She noted that “even though inflation is soon expected to reach the target... the bank is expecting that it will creep back up again to around 2.5% later this year”.The pound dropped against the dollar and euro following Thursday’s decision, further boosting exporters and multinationals on London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index.The FTSE hit a fresh record high, as did Frankfurt, with markets forecasting rate reductions in the coming months also from the ECB and the Fed.Despite the upbeat sentiment, a leading international organisation last week said that the UK would expand by only 0.4% this year because of the inflation situation and stubbornly-high interest rates.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected also that the UK would perform worst among the Group of Seven major economies next year.Britain may have new leadership by then, with polls widely indicating that the main opposition Labour party is on course to win an upcoming general election after 14 years of rule by the Conservatives, currently led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.But the Tories could get a boost if data due out Friday shows, as expected, Britain’s economy has exited its brief recession.The BoE hiked borrowing costs 14 times between late 2021 — when they stood at a record-low 0.1% — and the second half of last year, with supply-chain disruptions following Covid lockdowns also proving inflationary.High interest rates boost savers but hurt borrowers including businesses. British retail banks meanwhile tend to mirror action by the BoE, resulting in big jumps to mortgage rates.

To go back home in eastern India, cast his vote and spend time with his wife and three children would be ideal, said Shafiq Ansari, but he cannot afford to lose wages and so has to keep toiling under the sweltering summer sun near New Delhi.Ansari is far from alone. Many millions of migrant workers across India face a similar dilemma as voting takes place in the world’s biggest election, with nearly 1bn people eligible to vote until June 1. Results are due by June 4, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi predicted to win a rare third term.For those like Ansari, a road building labourer from Jharkhand state earning Rs600 ($7) a day in the satellite city of Noida, the costs of voting are high — from leave without pay, threats of wage theft and job loss to lofty travel expenses, including the expected gifts for family members.“If I could get free (train) tickets and paid leave, I would go. But since that is not happening, I will stay and hope for the best,” said Ansari, 37.“We are here out of compulsion. It is just for work ... because we could not find anything back home,” he said, gesturing to about 30 of his fellow migrant labourers, who mostly hail from the impoverished eastern states of Jharkhand and neighbouring Bihar.All the men echoed Ansari, saying they would not go back to cast their votes this month as it would mean losing at least Rs4,000 ($48) in two days’ lost wages and travel costs. In Noida, they can earn as much as Rs24,000 in a month.The Thomson Reuters Foundation spoke to another two dozen migrant workers in and around New Delhi, with only four saying they would go back to their home town to vote. Of those four, three said their towns were relatively close so it would only cost them a day’s wage and a few hours’ of travel time.While the number of internal migrants in India has not been updated in official figures for more than 10 years, experts say they could make up as much as 40% of the electorate.According to the latest available figures, albeit from 2011, India’s then population of 1.21bn people included 456mn internal migrants.Their number has likely increased by another 150mn, said S Irudaya Rajan, chairman of the International Institute of Migration and Development think tank.“Migrants are still invisible in our country’s policies and programmes,” Rajan said.He observed that neither the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor its rivals had debated or discussed the Covid-19 migrants’ crisis in their campaigns or rallies.An estimated 100mn migrants were among the worst hit by a strict lockdown in early 2020, which led to an exodus from cities. Many workers walked home, their adversity unfolding live on television and making global headlines.“It can’t be a memory lapse. This happened only four years ago,” said Rajan.“This just indicates that nobody is bothered about them.”Rajan described most migrant workers as short-term, seasonal, distressed, illiterate and informal, making it difficult for them to organise and fight for their rights.He warned that without their say in elections, it could exacerbate their exploitation, and limit their bargaining power as they are left out of key decision making.“The problem is that migrants are not treated as a vote bank despite their great contributions to the economy...This needs to be fixed,” he said, urging the creation of a ministry for migrant affairs.Internal migration is bound to intensify in the world’s most populous nation as economic slowdown hits rural India, home to 60% of its 1.4bn people, according to migration and economic experts.Many, especially those under 35, flock to the cities to take whatever jobs they can — becoming labourers, drivers or helpers in shops and homes — to tap into the country’s spectacular economic growth and the prosperity of its urban areas.Benoy Peter, the executive director of the Centre for Migration and Inclusive Development in the coastal state of Kerala, warned that people engaged in farm-based jobs could face rising pressure from climate change, which hurts harvests and fuels debt, forcing them to migrate.He said that if there were enough well-paying jobs at home, most would not opt “to be treated as second-class citizens in the urban centres of India”.“People can live with dignity, exercise their agency if they have decent-paying jobs at their native places. But that is going to be a remote dream,” he said.In the last general election in 2019, more than 300mn people did not vote — migrant workers likely made up a huge proportion of those, according to government data.In the first and largest phase of this year’s general election, voter turnout dipped by nearly four percentage points compared to 2019, according to data.M Venkaiah Naidu from the BJP cautioned in an op-ed days after that voter apathy could “automatically allow others to dictate the course of their lives”.All the migrant workers said it was neither feasible to drop everything and go home to vote, nor possible to change their voting constituency to their place of work since most of them hop from place to place doing temporary jobs.India’s election panel has been working on alternative voting mechanisms, including proxy voting, early voting at special centres and online voting.It has also considered remote polling stations that would mean migrant workers would not have to travel back to their home district to vote.But these methods have not been implemented due to administrative, legal and technological challenges, including ensuring secrecy of voting.The Election Commission of India did not respond to repeated requests for comment on voting solutions for migrant workers.Most, barring two migrant workers, said they would not vote online or via smartphone apps even if given the choice, citing chances of manipulation.“I cannot trust (technology). My thumb needs to push that button,” said Binita Ahirwar, a labourer at a Delhi-based cardboard box factory, referring to buttons on electronic voting machines (EVMs) used in India.Ahirwar, 32, said she was not going to go to her home state of Madhya Pradesh to vote over job loss fears.But not everyone is choosing to sit it out.For Kaju Nath, a building labourer in Noida, voting is a responsibility, and to fulfil it he said he had informed his boss in advance about taking a week off to travel some 684 miles to Bihar.“I will lose about Rs10,000...but at least I will vote for a better future. There are no industries, no factories, no jobs in my state, and I need to vote to change that,” he said as he clapped cement dust off his hands.“I have to do this for my children, so that by the time they grow up they can have jobs there. They should not have to do what I am doing.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation

Toyota reported record annual net profit of more than $30bn yesterday but the world's largest automaker by sales warned that the current year would be less spectacular.Helped by a weak yen and strong hybrid vehicle sales, the Japanese giant's bottom line doubled to ¥4.94tn ($31.9bn) in the year to March while revenues rose 21.4% to ¥45.1tn, also an all-time high."Under the banner of 'carbon is the enemy', Toyota has done what it can to achieve carbon neutrality and make hybrid cars more prevalent," said chief financial officer Yoichi Miyazaki."Since the debut of the Prius model, that effort has gradually paid off, creating the perception even in the American market that hybrids are the main player," Miyazaki told reporters.For this year it expects net profit of ¥3.57tn, down 27.8%, because of investments in "growth areas" such as electric and hydrogen cars, as well as in "human capital".Sales will rise 2.0% to ¥46tn."We have to accept that there are certain areas where we're significantly behind China...But as a Japanese company fighting in the auto industry, we know we cannot let this lead widen further. We're going to think about how to pull off a game-changer," Miyazaki said.Toyota last month said it sold 11.1mn vehicles across all brands in the 2023-24 fiscal year, up 5% and the first time they have exceeded 10mn.A big factor was a 31% jump to 3.7mn in sales of hybrid vehicles — combining internal combustion engines and batteries — like the Corolla compact car and the RAV4 sports utility vehicle.Sales of purely electric car sales were a much more modest 116,500.Toyota pioneered hybrid cars with its popular Prius model, but it and other Japanese automakers have been criticised for being slow to embrace purely battery-powered vehicles.But its strategy appears finally to be paying off with signs that consumers are going cold on pure EVs because of high prices and worries about reliability, range and a lack of charging points.In 2023, China overtook Japan as the world's biggest vehicle exporter, a change fuelled by the country's dominance in electric cars.Toyota was also left standing by Elon Musk's EV giant Tesla in terms of market value, but the gap — almost $1tn in 2021 — has now narrowed sharply.Toyota's share price has soared 34% this year, while that of Tesla — which sold 1.8mn vehicles last year — has dived 28% over the same period.Toyota is however still aiming to sell 1.5mn EVs annually by 2026 and 3.5mn by 2030.It is also hoping to mass-produce solid-state batteries, a potentially hugely important technological breakthrough that could mean faster charging times and greater range.Toyota's unit sales rose 13.8% in North America in 2023-24, while climbing 10.8% in Europe and 8.7 % in Japan, despite a production halt at its Daihatsu unit.In China, the world's biggest electric car market where local firms such as BYD dominate, Toyota sold 1.9mn vehicles, a rise of only 1.4%.Toyota shares closed down 0.55% at ¥3,579.0 in Tokyo.DisneyDisney reported higher revenues on Tuesday on a strong performance by its theme parks division and an improving streaming business, but a write-down in the company's India business resulted in a small loss.The company achieved profitability in its entertainment streaming segment following subscription additions of more than 6mn in Disney+, a landmark after years of losses.But company officials signalled they expect the division to have a loss in the current quarter, in part due to weaker subscriber counts.The entertainment giant also offered a cautious outlook on its parks division.While Disney is still recording "healthy" demand, "we are seeing some evidence of a global moderation from peak post-Covid travel," Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston said on a conference call.Shares of Disney fell sharply on the results, although analysts noted that the company's share price has risen significantly so far in 2024 prior to the report.For its fiscal second-quarter ending March 30, Disney reported a $20mn quarterly loss following the $2.1bn impairment in Star India. Revenues rose 1.2% to $22.1bn.The large reduction at Star India relates to combining its India business with India's Reliance Industries, a deal announced in late February.Disney said it was on track for full-year profits on the entire streaming business after years of losses. This includes the ESPN+ sports network, which pushed the combined business into a loss in the just-finished quarter.Disney Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger expressed confidence on streaming, in part because of an impending crackdown on improper password sharing."That will roll out in earnest across the globe in September," said Iger, who described feeling "quite bullish" in light of Netflix's success in addressing the issue."We're going to balance sequels with originals, particularly in animation," said Iger, who described the company as "leaning" back somewhat to sequels."There's a lot of value in sequels, obviously, because they're known and it takes less in terms of marketing," Iger said.The entertainment giant cited Walt Disney World Resort, Hong Kong Disneyland and the company's cruise division as areas of strength in parks and experiences, but saw lower results at Disneyland Resorts.Asked about succession, Iger said the board is "heavily engaged" in the process and that he is confident "they will choose the right person at the right time."FerrariItalian luxury carmaker Ferrari on Tuesday posted a double digit rise in both profits and sales for the first quarter of 2024, and confirmed its full-year guidance.Net profit increased by 19 % to €352mn ($379), more than expected by the consensus of Factset analysts who were counting on €335mn.Revenue increased by 11% to €1.58bn, in line with analysts' expectations.However, Ferrari's shares on the Milan stock exchange fell by 4.7% amid a sense among some analysts that the firm's annual objectives are not sufficiently ambitious.For the whole of 2024, the group continues to expect revenue growth of more than 7% to more than €6.4bn euros and gross operating income, or EBITDA, to rise by a similar amount €2.45bn.Ferrari delivered a total of 3,560 cars worldwide between January and March, seven fewer than in the same period in 2023."The start of the year was very positive," commented chief executive Benedetto Vigna, adding: "Our value over volume strategy continues to be successful." Vigna highlighted the "enrichment of our product range" thanks to the launch of the two-seater 12Cilindri and the 12Cilindri Spider.By 2026, the manufacturer is banking on revenue riseing to €6.7bn, a goal Ferrari intends to achieve by launching 15 new models between 2023 and 2026.Deliveries in the first quarter were driven by the 296 family models, the Purosangue SUV and the Roma Spider. Deliveries of limited-edition Daytona SP3 from the Icona range also increased.Europe, the Middle East and Africa remained Ferrari's main market in the first quarter, with 1,573 vehicles delivered, up 3%.BPBritish energy giant BP has said net profit slumped 72% in the first quarter, as gas prices declined from a year earlier.Profit after tax tumbled to $2.3bn from $8.2bn in the first three months of 2023, BP said.Total revenue dropped 13% to $48.9bn.Alongside the results, BP announced "at least" $2.0bn in cost savings by the end of 2026."We are simplifying and reducing complexity across BP," chief executive Murray Auchincloss said in an earnings statement.Auchincloss, a veteran BP employee, became CEO in January following a period as interim boss in the wake of Bernard Looney's sacking.Looney was dismissed over his failure to disclose past relationships with colleagues.BP's rival Shell said last week its net profit dropped 15% to $7.4bn in the first quarter.Gas prices have dropped heavily since soaring after the invasion of Ukraine by major energy producer Russia in early 2022.BP also announced a dividend payment and plans to buy back shares totalling $1.75bn, half the amount anticipated for the first six months of 2024."BP's proving it can splash the cash to shareholders even in a lower pricing environment," noted Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown."Commodity prices are out of BP's control but where it can make a difference it is."There's a new plan to deliver cost savings... and some of the effects of lower prices have been offset by increased production." BP said savings would come from various changes, including to digital operations and supply chains.It said that underlying replacement cost profit, its preferred measure, came in at $2.7bn in the first quarter, down from nearly $5bn a year earlier.That was below forecasts of nearly $2.9bn."Unlike rival Shell, which last week managed to report earnings which were down year-on-year but still higher than analysts expected, BP's quarterly scorecard disappointed investors," said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor.She noted that BP has also suffered from a first-quarter power outage at a major refinery in the US."On top of that, compared to its US rivals, BP has put a much greater emphasis on the green energy transition and unfortunately BP has suffered as a consequence." As is custom when energy majors posts earnings, environmentalists hit out.Alice Harrison, head of fossil fuel campaigns at Global Witness, criticised BP's rewards to shareholders and its energy prices, which have remained high during the drawn-out cost-of-living crisis.BP was more interested in "making the rich richer" than helping to "ease the burden of high bills or support countries suffering from the climate crisis", she said.NintendoNintendo has logged a record net profit of ¥490bn ($3.2bn) for the 2023-24 financial year, helped by the weak yen, but issued a cautious forecast.The Japanese game giant, whose Switch console is now in its eighth year, said it expects net profit of ¥300bn in the current financial year, a drop of nearly 40%.Saudi TelecomSaudi Arabia’s top telecom company reported its strongest first-quarter profit since 2006 as it made more revenue from business at home, reports Bloomberg.Saudi Telecom Co’s net income rose almost 6% year on year to 3.29bn riyals ($877mn) in the first three months of the year, according to a statement on Wednesday. That beat the average analyst estimate for 3.15bn. Revenue also exceeded expectations on the back of stronger activity in the commercial unit.Saudi Telecom, or STC as its known, recently agreed to sell a majority stake in its tower operations unit to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund for a cash consideration of 8.7bn riyals. The company said it’ll use the money to support its plans to expand locally and internationally.STC has made a string of global acquisitions over the last year, including a $2.25bn stake in Spain’s Telefonica, and is said to be in pole position to acquire Altice’s Portuguese business.Shares of STC are down about 7% so far this year compared with a gain of 3% for the Saudi Tadawul index. STC is 64% owned by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, known as the PIF.UBSSwiss banking giant UBS on Tuesday said first quarter net profit rose 71% to nearly $1.8bn, far exceeding expectations, after two quarters in the red due to the mammoth takeover of Credit Suisse.Switzerland's biggest bank said its turnover increased by 46% to $12.7bn, largely thanks to its investment banking arm, which had been the key part in the mega-merger.UBS's investment banking revenues increased by 16%, driven by a more favourable market climate and by the good performance of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions.In March 2023, Swiss authorities strong-armed UBS into the $3.25bn takeover to prevent Credit Suisse from going under with catastrophic consequences for the global financial system.The results for the first three months of 2024 were a moment for the bank to review progress since the integration of Credit Suisse."A little over a year ago, we were asked to play a critical role in stabilising the Swiss and global financial systems through the acquisition of Credit Suisse and we are delivering on our commitments," said UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti."This quarter marks the return to reported net profits and further capital accretion — a testament to the strength of our business and client franchises and our ability to deliver significant progress on our integration plans while actively optimising our financial resourcesUBS posted a $785mn loss in the third quarter of 2023, and was down $279mn in the fourth quarter.Many analysts expected UBS's results to return to positive territory following the 2024 first quarter figures published by US banks in the same league.Analysts surveyed by the Swiss financial newswire AWP had on average expected UBS to post a net profit of $637mn.But Switzerland's leading bank far exceeded expectations, with Swiss investment managers Vontobel describing the results as "massively above estimates".UBS continued its cost reductions, making $1bn in additional savings during the first quarter, with the cumulative figure since the merger amounting to $5bn, or nearly 40% of the $13bn target for 2026.By the end of the year, the group hopes to achieve another $1.5bn in savings.Analysts with the Zurich Cantonal Bank said the results showed that in an improved environment, UBS could both increase revenues and reduce costs."The bank therefore still appears to be on track to implement the integration of Credit Suisse in line with the target plan," ZKB said.Though Tuesday's first quarter figures were better than expected, investors are watching to see how UBS deals with looming tighter regulation for Switzerland's banking sector.The merger of the two largest banks in the country created a megabank of troubling size in relation to the Swiss economy.The Swiss government last month unveiled a project aimed at toughening the rules on banks, regarding both bonuses and the capital they must set aside to be able to face a crisis.According to calculations by some experts, UBS may need to build an additional liquidity cushion of $15bn to $25bn — figures that Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter told a newspaper were plausible.Ermotti told a conference with analysts it was "an important discussion for the country", but while hoping for a reasonable outcome it was still "too early to speculate on the impact" the changes might have.In the 12 months following the Credit Suisse takeover, UBS shares gained 59 % on the stock market.However, since April, shares have fallen back as investors worry about the additional amounts that the bank will have to put to one side.

British drugmaker AstraZeneca said Wednesday that it has withdrawn its Covid vaccine Vaxzevria, one of the first produced in the pandemic, citing "commercial reasons" and a surplus of updated jabs."As multiple, variant Covid-19 vaccines have since been developed there is a surplus of available updated vaccines. This has led to a decline in demand for Vaxzevria, which is no longer being manufactured or supplied," an AstraZeneca spokeperson said.

The Olympic flame is set to arrive in the French port of Marseille today in front of a crowd of up to 150,000 people in a first major test of the hugely ambitious plans for the Paris Games.The transfer of the flame onshore from a 19th-century tall ship will mark the start of a 12,000-kilometre (7,500-mile) torch relay across mainland France and the country’s far-flung overseas territories.Organisers are hoping the first public spectacle of their much-hyped “iconic” Olympics – just 79 days away – will help build excitement after a damaging row about ticket prices and ongoing concerns about security.“It’s something we’ve been waiting for for a very long time,” chief organiser Tony Estanguet told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s here. One hundred years after the last Games, the Games are coming home.”When the Paris opening ceremony begins on July 26, it will be the first time the city has played host for a century after previous editions in 1924 and 1900.France sees itself at the heart of the modern Olympic movement after a French aristocrat, Pierre de Coubertin, revived the idea of the Games as practised by the Greeks until the 4th century BC.After the Covid-hit edition in Tokyo in 2021 and the corruption-tainted Rio de Janeiro version in 2016, the Paris Olympics are seen as an important moment for the sporting extravaganza as a whole.A measure of public excitement will come when the flame is handed over today evening from the Belem, a historic French trade vessel that has made a 12-day trip from Greece.“We are going to do beautiful, grandiose, sober and accessible at the same time,” Marseille mayor Benoit Payan promised to AFP ahead of the flame arriving, while recalling how his gritty port city was founded by Greek traders in 600 BC.Over 1,000 other boats will accompany its approach to the harbour and organisers expect around 150,000 people to witness the transfer in the revamped marina of Marseille, which will host the sailing events during the Olympics.Fireworks and a free concert will complete the show which will be broadcast live on French TV.In the background, around 6,000 members of the security forces are expected to be on duty in a major test of the vast security plans put in place at a time when the country is on its highest terror alert.“It’s completely unprecedented for the national police to mobilise so many people on the same day at the same place,” regional police co-ordinator Cedric Esson told reporters on Tuesday.The honour of being the first torch bearer will fall to four-time Olympic medal-winning swimmer Florent Manadou.Other stars scheduled to take part in the parade, which continues tomorrow, include NBA-winning basketball player Tony Parker and footballer Didier Drogba, as well as charity and entertainment figures.One beach-cleaning charity has boycotted it to protest Olympics sponsor Coca-Cola, while there is no scheduled against role for Marseille’s most famous sporting son, football legend Zinedine Zidane.Extremely tight security will be a constant feature as the torch travels through more than 450 French towns, cities and territories, and passes by dozens of tourist attractions including the Mont Saint Michel.Around 200 security forces are set to be positioned permanently around it, including an anti-terror SWAT team and anti-drone operatives.Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin has referred to the risk of protests, including from far-left groups or environmental activists such as Extinction Rebellion.Organisers have promised a “spectacular” and “iconic” Olympics, with much of the sport set to take place in temporary venues around the City of Light including at the Eiffel Tower and the Invalides.In the absence of a much-feared security scare, the opening ceremony will take place in boats on the river Seine in a radical departure from past Games which have opened in the main stadium.All of the major infrastructure has been completed with only two new permanent sporting venues built in a bid to reduce the financial cost and carbon emissions of the global extravaganza.The idea of the torch rally harks back to the ancient Olympics when a sacred flame burned throughout the Games.The Paris Olympics will run from July 26-August 11, followed by the Paralympics from August 28-September 8.

Qatar Foundation (QF) chairperson Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser attended the annual, collective celebration of graduates from Qatar Foundation’s unique education ecosystem – commemorating 953 'future change-makers as they step from one phase of their journey into the next'.The convocation ceremony was also attended by HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and QF vice chairperson and CEO HE Sheikha Hind bint Hamad al-Thani, together with ministers, diplomats, university presidents, deans and faculty members, and families of the Class of 2024 graduates.Students of 77 nationalities – 40% are Qatari, with 61% of this year’s graduates being female – who are graduating from QF’s Hamad Bin Khalifa University and seven international partner universities took the spotlight, walking through the Door to the Future, a convocation tradition symbolising how their years of learning, exploration, and discovery have prepared them for what now lies ahead.During the ceremony, Her Highness Sheikha Moza honoured 16 graduates with QF Excellence Awards in recognition of both their academic success and their leadership, innovation, and creative qualities that equip them to make vital contributions to society and empower others.HE Abdulaziz bin Nasser bin Mubarak al-Khalifa, president of the Civil Service and Government Development Bureau, said: “On this occasion, I extend my warmest congratulations to all the 2024 graduates of Qatar Foundation’s universities, who represent our future generations, and their universities for their efforts in providing these graduates with opportunities and developing their skills, reflecting the support and vision of Qatar’s higher education leadership.“We look forward to seeing the valuable contributions these graduates will make to the future-ready workforce of our nation, in line with Qatar’s third National Development Strategy 2024-2030. I call on them to invest in their professional careers the knowledge they have acquired and to advance the wheel of progress and innovation, and I wish them a prosperous and successful future.”In his keynote speech, Kuwaiti entrepreneur and technologist Ahmad Marafi, co-founder and CEO of CODED – a Middle East coding academy – told QF’s Class of 2024: “Our journey was never easy; when we felt we had reached the summit, the Covid-19 pandemic meant we faced a greater challenge and we found ourselves at a crossroads – all the roads before us were dark, and it was difficult to take a confident step along an unknown path.“Today, it is your turn to create your own success story, and to make your mark on the future – a future that will not be drawn by anyone but you. Each of your experiences differs, but more than 10,000 QF graduates are sharing the journey with you, and they will have a role along your journey.”The ceremony also featured a piece of music created for the 2024 edition of Convocation by Ahmad al-Zmaili, Mohammed Bashar, and Dana Salah, with its themes emphasising the power of youth and social responsibility, and the importance of continuing to stand in solidarity with the people of Gaza and Palestine; and a Convocation film encapsulating the graduates’ journey during their years at QF.The Class of 2024 expand QF’s global network of alumni to over 10,000. Specialising in fields ranging from medicine, engineering, art and design, communication, and international affairs, to Islamic studies, law and public policy, computing, humanities and social sciences, and business, they have also benefited from opportunities for citizenship, service to society, and cross-cultural interaction while students at QF.“At Qatar Foundation, our commitment to excellence goes beyond academic achievement,” said Francisco Marmolejo, president of Higher Education and education adviser, QF. “We believe in cultivating a holistic educational experience that not only equips students with the latest knowledge and skills, but also instills in them a strong sense of values, integrity, and social responsibility.“Through our partnership with top-tier universities hosted at Education City, we offer unparalleled opportunities for intellectual growth, global perspectives, and local engagement. Our aim is to empower students to not only succeed academically, but also to thrive as compassionate, empathetic, and actively involved members of society, ready to tackle the challenges of tomorrow with confidence and integrity.”