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China has put civilian government officials in Beijing on “wartime footing” and ordered a diplomatic charm offensive aimed at encouraging other countries to push back against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to four people familiar with the matter.Communist Party officials have played a leading role in framing China’s response, one of the people said, with government spokespeople posting defiant clips on social media featuring former leader Mao Zedong saying “we will never yield.”As part of the “wartime” posture, the details of which are being reported by Reuters for the first time, bureaucrats in the foreign affairs and commerce ministries have been ordered to cancel vacation plans and keep mobile phones switched on around the clock, two of the people said. Departments covering the US have also been beefed up, including with officials who worked on China’s response to Trump’s first term, they said. The combative all-of-government approach after Trump’s “Liberation Day” salvo marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiralling trade war. For months, Chinese diplomats had tried to establish a high-level channel of communication with Trump’s administration to defend what China’s cabinet has described in state media campaigns as a “win-win” trading relationship.Optimistic Chinese observers even held out hope for a grand bargain with Trump over trade, TikTok – and perhaps even Taiwan.This account of how China shifted from seeking a deal to punching back with retaliatory tariffs and threatening all-out defiance is based on interviews with more than a dozen people, including US and Chinese government officials, as well as other diplomats and scholars briefed on bilateral exchanges.Four of them also described how Beijing’s diplomats have been engaging other governments targeted by Trump tariffs, including sending letters seeking co-operation to several countries. Longstanding US allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea have also been contacted, two people said.Most of the people spoke on condition of anonymity to describe confidential government deliberations.“China is a responsible major country. We stand up against hegemony, not only to safeguard our own rightful interests, but also to uphold the common interests of the international community,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a faxed statement.It added that, “This trade war was started by the US and imposed on China... If the US really wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiations, it should stop applying extreme pressure. Any dialogue should be established on the basis of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit.”The South Korean and Japanese embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on talks between their countries and China.After the initial Chinese retaliation, Trump said: “China played it wrong, they panicked – the one thing they cannot afford to do!” He has also suggested that Beijing wanted to make a deal but “they just don’t know how quite to go about it.”US officials have also blamed China for the impasse because its trillion-dollar trade surplus with the world is the result of what they see as abuses of the global commerce system that haven’t been successfully addressed through years of negotiations.Trump on April 2 stunned the world with massive tariffs that he said would prevent countries like China from “ripping off” the US. Chinese leader Xi Jinping ditched official caution and issued a patriotic message casting doubt on whether American voters could bear as much hardship as the Chinese. The “Liberation Day” levies have since been suspended for all countries except China for 90 days. With some exceptions, trade of goods between China and the US is now largely frozen, and Beijing is starting to crack down on trade of services, while warning its citizens against travel to the US and putting curbs on import of American films.Even after Trump was elected on the promise of high tariffs, relations with Beijing got off to a polite start. Trump invited Xi to his inauguration, which was eventually attended by Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng.Things started deteriorating soon after.During the first Trump administration, Beijing had several high-level channels of communication, most notably between then-ambassador Cui Tiankai and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. There isn’t an equivalent channel this time around, according to a Beijing official familiar with Sino-American ties, adding that China wasn’t sure who spoke for Trump on their relationship.A Trump administration official said in response to Reuters’ questions that the US had “made clear to China that we want working-level contact to continue... but will not engage for the sake of engagement and in dialogues that do not advance American interests.”Chinese ambassador to the US Xie Feng made unsuccessful attempts before the election to reach Trump’s billionaire ally Elon Musk, said a US scholar who recently visited China for unofficial exchanges that Beijing has historically used to communicate with Washington policymakers.Musk didn’t immediately return a request for comment. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tried to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a China hawk who is sanctioned by Beijing, during a February visit to New York to chair a United Nations session but did not secure a meeting. There has been no publicly disclosed exchange between the two sides’ top diplomats beyond a frosty phone call in late January.Wang was also unsuccessful in his efforts to meet on that trip with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, said a person familiar with the matter. Wang had held numerous talks with Waltz’s predecessor, Jake Sullivan, including an exchange that led to a rare prisoner swap.In an interview with ABC News on Sunday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there have been initial discussions through intermediaries between the US and China.“We all expect that the President of United States and President Xi of China will work this out,” Lutnick said.China’s commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Lutnick’s remarks.Trump told reporters this week that he would be willing to meet Xi, whom he also described as a friend. He has not detailed any specifics of a possible deal.The Trump administration official said the US had repeatedly asked Chinese diplomats if Xi would request a phone call with Trump and “the answer has consistently been ‘no.’”International relations expert Zhao Minghao at Shanghai’s Fudan University said such outreach “totally doesn’t work in terms of the Chinese policy-making system.”“For the Chinese side, usually there is agreement and work on the working level and then we can arrange the summit,” he said. The way “countries which have tried to negotiate have been treated so far this year also certainly has not done much to encourage China to sit down at the table,” said Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING Bank.There are some ongoing conversations between lower-level officials on both sides, according to one Chinese and three US officials, though some working groups put in place by the Joe Biden administration to deal with commercial disputes, as well as treasury and military issues have been frozen.While many countries were hit by US tariffs this month for the first time, China honed its response during previous bouts of the Sino-American trade war.Drawing on lessons from Trump’s first term, China created a retaliatory playbook that includes tariffs as well as restrictions on about 60 US companies and curbs on exports of rare earths.The effort was a result of weeks of preparations by Chinese government officials who had been tasked with studying Trump’s policies and suggesting countermeasures that could be gradually scaled up, according to two people familiar with the situation.Xi opted for a strong response, hitting back with across-the-board levies even before Trump’s announced tariffs went into effect. The duties were announced shortly before Wall Street opened on April 4 - a public holiday in China. US equities dropped sharply lower.One Chinese official briefed on the deliberations described the unusually swift response as akin to Covid pandemic-era decision making that was carried out without the customary sign offs by all relevant departments.Some Chinese opinion leaders appeared to suggest off-ramps in the trade war.Ren Yi, a political blogger with nearly 2mn followers on the Weibo microblogging platform said in an April 8 post that countermeasures “do not require a broad increase in tariffs on American goods.”Ren, whose grandfather was a prominent reformist leader in the 1980s, suggested targeted moves like suspension of fentanyl co-operation and further restrictions on agricultural imports and movies. China’s finance ministry said last Friday that with tariffs on US goods now at 125%, it will stop matching any future hikes in duties by Washington, whose tariff strategy it branded a “joke”.China’s foreign ministry has summoned many of the heads of its overseas missions back to Beijing for a special meeting held last week to co-ordinate the response, according to two Beijing-based diplomats.China has also sent formal letters to government officials of other countries pressured by Trump to engage in trade negotiations.The letters, which were described to Reuters by four people familiar with their contents, outlined the Chinese position as well as the need for multipolarity and for countries to stand together. The messaging also included criticism of US policy that echoed China’s public statements.China has approached some G20 governments with wording for a joint declaration voicing support for the multilateral trading system, an EU diplomat told Reuters.But the diplomat said that the messaging did not address concerns also held by non-US governments about Chinese overcapacity, its subsidy regime and alleged unfair competition. Beijing has said those concerns are overblown and that the rise of its high-tech industries is due to its comparative advantages and benefits the world.China is also heavily focused on the domestic reaction to the tariffs, with social media users this week widely reposting an April 7 editorial in the official People’s Daily warning against panic. China has also recently started encouraging households to spend more and has dramatically changed its language about domestic consumption. Beijing is aiming to shift the engine of growth from exports to consumers at a time when the economy remains hobbled by a crisis of failed real estate development.“The real battlefield is on the domestic front, rather than bilateral negotiations,” said Zhao of Fudan University.Chinese officials also published on Musk’s X platform a clip of Chairman Mao giving a speech in 1953 – the last time the US and China were in direct military conflict during the Korean War.In the clip, Mao, whose oldest son died in the war, says peace is up to the Americans.“No matter how long this war is going to last, we’ll never yield,” he said. “We’ll fight until we completely triumph.”

California-based design firm RoseBernard Studio has pioneered a unique approach where it helps make concepts meet the brand ethos for both itself and the clients it works for.Since 2019, RoseBernard Studio has been standing out as a creative outlier, a luxury design firm that treats every project as a canvas for storytelling. Whether it’s subtle stitching on a uniform, the branding of a cocktail menu, or the architectural curve of a guest suite, RoseBernard crafts layered, sensory-rich experiences that fuse artistry with deep market intelligence. Its ethos? That design isn’t just beauty; it encompasses meaning, emotion, and making a space work smarter.Now celebrating its sixth anniversary, the San Francisco-based studio has grown from a small, tight-knit duo into a powerhouse of more than 40 creatives spread across continents, from the Bay Area to Chicago, India, and London. Founded by Robert Polacek and Justin Colombik, RoseBernard Studio was born not out of ambition alone but out of legacy and personal reinvention. “We didn’t want to start a firm with just our names on the door,” says Polacek. “We wanted it to stand for something bigger.”The studio’s name pays homage to two deeply influential figures: Rose, Colombik’s grandmother, a model and artist, and Bernard, Polacek’s grandfather, a chef and carpenter. “They taught us creativity, independence, and grit,” Polacek reflects. “This studio is built on their spirit. It’s about doing the work with soul, not ego.”That soul has become the foundation of a radically different kind of design business. After exiting from Puccini Group, Polacek and his longtime collaborator, Colombik, decided to ‘right-size’ their future. Instead of scattering to other firms, they kept existing projects and struck out on their own. From the beginning, they made a deliberate choice: to build a company around ethos, not executives. “We’ve always focused on budding designers who are eager to learn, and we can mold them in a way that speaks to our ideology,” admits Polacek.Today, that team includes architects, graphic designers, interior designers, brand strategists, and visionaries who think beyond silos. The result is a multidisciplinary studio with a sharp eye for emotional resonance and commercial viability. “Hospitality is truly a real estate game,” Polacek shares. “We understand how things operate and how to make them profitable for our clients.” What exactly does RoseBernard do? Quite a bit. The studio provides full-spectrum services for hospitality and lifestyle brands, from initial market research and food-and-beverage (F&B) strategy to naming, branding, spatial design, and even uniforms and tableware. Its work spans guest rooms, public spaces, restaurants, and private homes, each project rooted in a deep understanding of market demand and guest psychology.“We don’t just design what looks good; we find out what’s missing,” says Colombik. “For example, if a hotel wants to revamp its restaurant, we do competitive analysis in the area. Maybe there are already 20 Italian spots nearby, so we recommend a concept that fills a gap. Then we design it from the ground up, from the logo to the lighting plan.”That future-forward mentality drives RoseBernard to innovate in ways that go far beyond aesthetics. Its internal R&D arm is constantly developing concepts that can later be pitched to clients, may it be futuristic hotel ideas, space-efficient builds, or sustainable systems that reduce costs and environmental impact. “We’re not waiting around for the client to come to us,” Polacek explains. “We’re out there creating ideas that shape where hospitality is going.”Most recently, RoseBernard is expanding into new terrain with the launch of a furniture and lifestyle brand, Rosie&Bernie, again inspired by the studio’s namesakes. It’s also delving into art collaborations, underscoring the belief that hospitality isn’t just about space; it’s about experience and culture.Surviving six years in a volatile design economy is no small feat, especially considering it launched just before the COVID-19 pandemic upended travel and hospitality. And yet, here it is, thriving. That growth, both philosophical and tangible, reflects a larger shift in the industry, away from design-for-design’s-sake and toward thoughtful, interdisciplinary storytelling. RoseBernard Studio isn’t just designing for today’s travelers; it’s helping define what hospitality will look like tomorrow. Because in the end, as Polacek puts it, “Design is how we tell the story of a place, its people, and its purpose. And our job is to make that story unforgettable.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement Wednesday, announcing that its members have reached an agreement to prepare the world for future pandemics after over three years of intensive negotiations.The proposal aims to strengthen global collaboration on prevention, preparedness and response to future pandemic threats.This legally binding agreement aims to strengthen the world's defenses against emerging pathogens, after the COVID-19 pandemic claimed millions of lives during 2020-2022.The agreement outlines measures to prevent future pandemics and enhance global cooperation, including establishing a pathogen access and benefit sharing system and building geographically diverse research capacity, among other things.The agreement also proposes the creation of a global supply chain and logistics network with a focus on strengthening health system resilience and preparedness."WHO Member States took a major step forward in efforts to make the world safer from pandemics," the organization said in the statement.The agreement is seen as a victory for the WHO, at a time when multilateral organizations, such as the WHO, have been severely impacted by severe cuts in US foreign funding.The issue of future pandemics has become a focus of increasing global attention since the COVID-19 crisis subsided, amid calls to unify international efforts to fund research and provide effective mechanisms for delivering vaccines and medical supplies to areas where serious epidemics recur.The negotiations faced complex challenges, particularly regarding financing, technology exchange, and the equitable distribution of medicine

The US government has granted tariff exclusions for smartphones, computers and other electronics imported largely from China, sparing them from President Donald Trump’s steep 125% reciprocal duties.In a notice to shippers, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency published a list of tariff codes that will be excluded from the duties.The exclusions are retroactive to 12.01am EDT (0401 GMT) on April 5.The US CBP listed 20 product categories, including the very broad 8471 code for all computers, laptops, disc drives and automatic data processing.It included semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays.The notice did not provide an explanation for the Trump administration’s move, but the late-night exclusion provides welcome relief to major US technology firms, including Apple , Dell Technologies and many other importers.Trump’s action also excludes the specified electronics from his 10% “baseline” tariffs on goods from most countries other than China, easing import costs for semiconductors from Taiwan and Apple iPhones produced in India.For the Chinese imports, the exclusion only applies to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which climbed to 125% this week, according to a White House official.Trump’s prior 20% duties on all Chinese imports that he said were related to the US fentanyl crisis remain in place.However, the official said Trump will launch a new national security trade investigation into semiconductors soon that could lead to other new tariffs on the sector.Separately, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that Trump has made it clear that the US cannot rely on China to manufacture critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones, and laptops.However, she said that at Trump’s direction, major tech firms, including Apple and chipmakers Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor “are hustling to onshore their manufacturing in the United States as soon as possible”.The exemptions suggest an increasing awareness within the Trump administration of the pain that his tariffs had in store for inflation-weary consumers, especially on popular products such as smartphones, laptops and other electronics.Even at a lower 54% tariff rate on Chinese imports, analysts predicted that the price of a top-end Apple iPhone could jump to $2,300 from $1,599.At 125%, economists and analysts have said that US-China trade could largely halt.Smartphones were the top US import from China in 2024, totalling $41.7bn, while Chinese-built laptop computers were second, at $33.1bn, according to US Census Bureau data.Trump ran to win back the White House last year largely on a promise to bring down prices that, fuelled by inflation from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, had rocketed and tarnished the economic reputation of former president Joe Biden and his Democratic allies.However, Trump also promised as a candidate to impose the tariffs that have become a central part of his economic agenda, and the president has dismissed the turbulence in financial markets and expected price increases arising from the levies as a disturbance that was a necessary part of realigning the global economy and world trading order with his vision.His so-called “reciprocal tariffs”, however, raised fears of a US recession and drew criticism from his fellow Republicans, who do not want to lose control of the US House of Representatives and Senate in next year’s congressional elections to Democrats, who have sharply attacked Trump’s policies.Trump paused higher duty rates for 57 trading partners and the EU last week, leaving most countries with a 10% tariff as they seek to negotiate trade deals with Washington.Trump, who is spending the weekend at his residence in Florida, told reporters on Friday that he was comfortable with the high tariffs on China but had a good relationship with President Xi Jinping and believed something positive would come out of the trade conflict between them.However, financial markets were in turmoil again on Friday as China matched Trump’s latest tariff increase on US imports to 125%, raising the stakes in a trade war that threatens to upend global supply chains.US stocks ended a volatile week higher, but the safe haven of gold hit a record high during the session and benchmark US 10-year government bond yields posted their biggest weekly increase since 2001 alongside a slump in the dollar, signalling a lack of confidence in the US.Adding to the pressure on Trump, Wall Street billionaires – including a number of his own supporters – have openly criticised the whole tariff strategy as damaging and counter-productive.Daniel Ives, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities, called the US exemptions the “best news possible” for tech investors.The exclusions remove “a huge black cloud” that had threatened to take the US tech sector “back a decade” and significantly slow artificial intelligence (AI) development, Ives said in a note.Many of the exempted products, including hard drives and computer processors, are not generally made in the United States and Trump argues tariffs are a way to bring domestic manufacturing back.

Japan’s prime minister urged the importance of unity in a world plagued by “divisions” at a futuristic but also tradition-steeped opening ceremony for the World Expo yesterday.Everything from a Mars meteorite to a beating heart grown from stem cells will be showcased during the six-month event, which opens to the public today.The vast waterfront site in Osaka will host more than 160 countries, regions and organisations.“Having overcome the Covid pandemic, the world now faces the crisis over many different divisions,” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told the opening ceremony. “It is extremely significant that people from all over the world gather and face the question of life in this era, exposing ourselves to state-of-the-art technology and diverse cultures and ways of thinking,” Ishiba said.Expo is also known as a World’s Fair and the phenomenon, which brought the Eiffel Tower to Paris, began with London’s 1851 Crystal Palace exhibition and is held every five years.Most pavilions - each more outlandishly designed than the last - are encircled by the world’s largest wooden architectural structure, a towering latticed “Grand Ring” designed as a symbol of unity.An array of colourful imagery symbolising life, birth and nature adorned a massive screen in a minutes-long video at yesterday’s ceremony, with foreign dignitaries and Japan’s royal family in attendance. The ceremony displayed a mix of technology, including its AI-powered “virtual human” master of ceremonies, and tradition that included Japanese kabuki dancing and taiko drums.Emperor Naruhito said he hopes Expo 2025 will “serve as an opportunity for people worldwide to respect the lives not only of their own but also of others”. Heightened security was put to the test hours before the ceremony when a suspicious box was found at the nearby Kyoto train station and reported to police.A bomb squad was sent to the scene, causing train delays, but it was found that the box only contained “foreign-made sweets”, according to Japanese media. Osaka last hosted the Expo in 1970, when Japan was booming and its technology was the envy of the world. It attracted 64mn people, a record until Shanghai in 2010.However, Expos have been criticised for their temporary nature, and Osaka’s man-made island will be cleared to make way for a casino resort after October. Only 12.5 percent of the Grand Ring will be reused, according to Japanese media. Opinion polls also show low levels of enthusiasm for the Expo among the public.So far 8.7mn advance tickets have been sold, below the pre-sales target of 14mn.Japan is also experiencing a record tourism boom, meaning accommodation in Osaka - near hotspot Kyoto, and home to the Universal Studios Japan theme park - is often fully booked with sky-high prices.

This was supposed to be the year that Silicon Valley’s years long backlog of billion-dollar startups were finally able to go public, delivering riches to venture capitalists. Instead, President Donald Trump’s promises of sweeping tariffs and the havoc in global markets have thrown those plans into limbo, threatening to plunge the VC and startup industry into crisis.Most major public listings planned for this year are on ice, with StubHub Holdings Inc, payments firm Klarna Group Plc and trading platform eToro Group Ltd all pausing their preparations. Some of these businesses, like Klarna, intend to list as soon as the market stabilises. But others aiming to go public this year, particularly those directly impacted by the tariffs, may struggle to reach that goal altogether.A significant delay to initial public offerings could starve venture capitalists of cash at a critical moment. “A major source of anxiety is going to be around the exit markets and whether or not they are open,” said Tomasz Tunguz, founder of Theory Ventures. “If we have another two years of no liquidity, it’s going to be really problematic for the asset class.”On Monday, the mood inside Silicon Valley VC firms was tense — similar to the environment in March of 2020, in the run-up to the global pandemic. “We’ve had a lot of Slack traffic over the last few days,” said Jake Saper, a general partner at Emergence Capital, with investors and founders rushing to make sense of the new policies. One founder told Saper her company’s customers were feeling “Covid-level fear and uncertainty.”“We’ve been through so many crises now,” Saper said, that the firm has an emergency playbook, starting with identifying the hardest-hit companies and helping them respond. Tariffs are likely to impact startups dealing with hardware and international trade, such as e-commerce-related businesses, investors say. And AI companies may also see an increase in computing prices.“We are trying to triage and figure out which ones will have the most pain early on,” Saper said.Many in the industry caution that it’s too early to know what the impact of the tariffs will be — partly due to uncertainty over whether the policies will stick. Meanwhile, volatility in the public markets is “going to be giving everyone whiplash,” said Pegah Ebrahimi, a co-founder of venture firm FPV Ventures.Stock prices reflect “an incredible amount of self-imposed tariff chaos,” said Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners and chair of the National Venture Capital Association. The result is that potential IPO investors are “completely distracted.” His firm, a backer of would-be public companies StubHub and Hinge Health, is watching the markets carefully, he said, and waiting for a reprieve. “Let’s all hope it’s in days or weeks instead of months or quarters.”For some planned IPOs, “we’re now looking at 2026 at the earliest,” said Mitchell Green, founder of growth equity firm Lead Edge Capital. That means further delaying payouts to the investors in VC funds for another six to 12 months, he said, on top of an existing multiyear drought. “This comes amid an investment environment already starved for liquidity,” Green said.Chris Farmer, partner and chief executive officer at SignalFire, expressed relief that the firm just completed its new fundraising, calling the timing “very fortunate.” He said there’s a risk that some limited partners are going to grow even more skittish, worsening an already tough environment. “Budgets will get pulled if they believe they are not going to get the distributions they are baking on.”Unable to sell their stakes in startups on the public markets, some investors may turn to private shares sales instead. “If the secondary market is the only place to access high-growth private companies in a closed IPO environment, we anticipate seeing high demand for quality companies,” said Charlie Grimes, head of global capital markets at Forge Global, a trading platform for private companies.In the short term, market uncertainty could make it harder for buyers and sellers on secondary markets to agree on a price. But a sustained lack of public offerings could make private trading more active.“The big question is on pricing and whether valuations will reset yet again,” Grimes said, referring to the slowly fluctuating share prices of pre-IPO companies. While Wall Street valuations have an effect on startups, private markets are less reactive to day-to-day volatility, he said, and it can take weeks or even months for pricing changes to materialise.Investors looking to cash out of startup investments are also hopeful an uptick in large venture-backed acquisitions will provide some relief. David Chen, Morgan Stanley’s global head of technology investment banking, said last month that economic uncertainty meant “the sellers’ willingness to transact has actually improved” — and that with no clear IPO window in sight, acquisitions can become more attractive.However, volatility can also lead to disagreements between buyers and sellers about acquisition prices. And tariffs could create added challenges for cross-border deal-making.Some of Trump’s most vocal supporters in tech remain hopeful that tariffs could help America in the long-run, despite the recent investor unrest. Some VCs have stressed that the move will help the US reduce dependence on foreign trade for products like drones. “Do the hard things and have a 70% chance you win,” Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire said in a post on X.Nik Talreja, CEO of Sydecar, outlined a different potential upside to the market turmoil in a memo to employees reviewed by Bloomberg. “In an environment where public equity and debt markets pull back, there is the potential for private markets to remain an interesting place to invest capital,” he wrote.But Talreja, whose company develops software for venture capitalists to manage their funds, also cautioned that the private markets could follow Wall Street to a slowdown in the second half of this year. “We do not know to what extent and how far-reaching the impact of any such slowdown will be,” he wrote.Eric Liaw, a general partner at IVP, is broadly pessimistic about the impact of the tariffs on the VC industry, but said it’s hard to predict the impact of such asprawling change to international trade. The firm will host a private event for portfolio CEOs and chief financial officers about navigating tariff volatility on Friday. For now, IVP is advising portfolio companies to exercise caution. “It’s tough to pick a fight with the whole world simultaneously,” Liaw said.

Investors are trying to game out how much tolerance US President Donald Trump has for stock market losses after his latest tariff policies ignited a more than 10% wipeout on Wall Street, with some still holding out hope of eventual relief. A so-called “Trump put” – the option market equivalent of a presidential backstop for equities – underpinned Trump’s first term, as he frequently cited stock market strength as proof his policies were working. Over the course of his first presidency the S&P 500 benchmark rose 68% and scaled record highs, while Trump cheered its progress, tweeting more than 150 times about the stock market. This time around, hope that such a Trump Put still exists is evaporating, or at the least, investors are coming around to the view that Trump is much more inclined to ride out sharp falls. The S&P and Nasdaq are down over 15% and 20% since his inauguration in January respectively.“The whole notion of tariffs and trade policy has been such an integral part of Donald Trump’s psyche, I don’t see it abandoned,” said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, who said any pain level likely to cause Trump to change course remained a long way away. Previous assumptions that Trump’s pro-business agenda would buoy risk assets similarly had already been fading as his trade policies rattled investors over the past few weeks.But the more-aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs unveiled on April 2 deepened the market selloff, leaving investors questioning whether the Trump put was gone, or might eventually reappear through tariff rollbacks after any trade deals.For Bob Elliott, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, the selloff still had a long way to go before any policy turnaround.“It takes 20-30% declines in stocks to get there. So the decline so far is not big enough,” he said.Some were more hopeful the market fall could eventually induce a change of course.“I don’t think (Trump) is going to be highly tolerant of massive stock market declines – he’ll see his popularity tank, and it will endanger his whole agenda,” said Kevin Philip, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “I don’t see any way out of this if he doesn’t come up with deals or reasons to change course.”The huge market falls – not seen since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 – even caused speculation online that Trump was intentionally “crashing” the market to force the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while making stocks more affordable to middle-class investors. Trump on Friday retweeted a social media post bearing the caption “Trump is Purposely CRASHING The Market” and featuring images of the president pointing at a large downward red arrow and of him signing executive orders at the White House. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said he was not intentionally engineering a market selloff and the rout was the result of a “medicine” needed to fix the US trade deficit. Trump and his team have said their policies may cause short-term pain but will eventually revive manufacturing and spur growth. On Friday he told investors pouring money into the United States that his policies would never change.White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to Reuters: “Just as it did during President Trump’s first term, the administration’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and the unleashing of American energy will restore American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street.”Some investors fear that weakening consumer confidence, an escalating trade war, and rising price pressures could deal a harsh and lasting blow to the economy, regardless of any potential economic upside down the line.For Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College, the disruption caused by the tariffs was too abrupt to allow US businesses to soften the blow, despite their resilience.“You’re putting so many sandbags on the balloon, it’s going to come back down to earth with a thud,” Bethune said. In the two sessions after the tariff decision was unveiled on Wednesday, the S&P 500 has tumbled 10.5%, erasing nearly $5tn in market value, marking its most significant two-day loss since March 2020. On Monday, the S&P was down 0.12%.Hopes that the market could be propped up by actions by the US Federal Reserve have also taken a knock. Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the “perfect time” to do so. But stock losses deepened past 5% after Powell on Friday warned that the new tariffs would likely push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, suggesting the Fed was unlikely to rush in to cut rates.“The market is still digesting the great deal of uncertainty and I think it’s also digesting the fact that both Trump and Powell have made it clear that the cavalry is not coming to immediately cause things to bounce back up,” said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura in New York.Rising prices could reduce the Fed’s ability to take supportive actions as it has in previous market downturns or if economic conditions deteriorated significantly, analysts said. This could take off the table a so-called “Fed put,” or a perceived tendency of the central bank to run to the aid of financial markets. “Who blinks first? The Fed or President Trump? The Fed has made it clear that with inflation where it is and unemployment where it is, (they’re) comfortable without doing anything right now,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. “We think Washington likely has to blink first to present some type of positive news.” – Reuters

There is a significant upside potential for European Union growth over the next few years in view of a major shift in the EU fiscal stance, alongside continued monetary easing and positive investor expectations, according to QNB.The European Union (EU) has been struggling with significant headwinds from a battery of deep and broad negative economic shocks over the last few years, QNB said in an economic commentary.This included the aftermath of the pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the Chinese slowdown, and a lack of political cohesion for stronger policy stimulus or a bolder response to structural challenges.While the Euro area as a whole was able to avoid a post-Covid recession, the economic bloc has been semi-stagnated, i.e., growing much below potential with several member countries, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, having faced either an official recession or zero growth for a couple of quarters. Importantly, the EU is also significantly underperforming the US.Moreover, reflecting conditions from earlier this year, analysts and economists were projecting further weakness ahead for the EU, with the Bloomberg consensus still pointing to below pre-Covid pandemic long-term growth of 2%, including projections of 1.3% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026.However, despite the negative momentum from the previous couple of years, there is room to be more positive about European growth over the short- and medium-term. Three main reasons support our view.First, negative political and geopolitical events, such as the emergence of radical political parties and disputes within the Atlantic alliance with the US, created a “burning platform” that is requiring extraordinary fiscal actions from political leaders.In Germany, Friedrich Merz, leader of the new coalition government, aims to leverage most of the German mainstream political parties to “flexibilise” strict budget rules and enable the approval of a massive programme for defence and infrastructure spending, which still requires constitutional amendments.This was also followed by a parallel movement at the EU level to expand the supranational EU budget and to allow member states to increase significantly their defence expenditures without triggering the “Excessive Deficit Procedure”, unlocking more than EUR800bn in five years under the “ReArm Europe” slogan.Such actions, QNB noted point to a massive change in fiscal policy stance within the EU, from restrictive to stimulative, suggesting a meaningful boost in aggregate demand and activity.A significant part of the US economic outperformance in recent years versus the EU is explained by much more accommodative fiscal policies. In fact, the US has been consistently stimulating its economy with primary deficits that are 2.5x to 3x larger than EU deficits.More fiscal flexibility in Germany and the EU should allow the bloc to stimulate more its economy while addressing the existing defence and infrastructure gaps, favouring growth.Second, the European Central Bank (ECB) has started its easing cycle in June 2024 and is expected to enact further rate cuts this year. This comes on the back of the successful normalisation of inflation and inflation expectations, which are currently running close to the 2% ECB target.The benchmark deposit facility interest rate has already been reduced by 150 basis points (bps) from a peak of 4%, and the market expects more 50 bps in cuts by the end of the year, taking the benchmark rate to 2%.Over time, this should alleviate financial conditions, lowering credit costs and favouring both investments and consumption. Therefore, regional growth should also be supported by monetary policy.Third, European markets are pointing to a significant increase in growth expectations, expressed by the “bullish” combination of higher equity prices, higher long-term yields, and an appreciating currency. Indeed, since the beginning of the year, the STOXX600 index of European equities is up 7.9%, while German 10-year yields are up by 50 bps and the EUR appreciated by 5.8% against the USD. “This is a sign of strong investor confidence in German and EU plans to credibly boost up regional defence and, in the process, prop up growth,” QNB said.Equity markets, in particular, suggest positive expectations for earnings growth and a sizeable improvement in business conditions. This is even more remarkable in a context where US equity indices are under pressure and the new US administration is threatening to wage a “trade war” against many competitors and allies, including the EU, QNB added.

Investors need to be agile to navigate global uncertainties to manage short-term risks and achieve their long-term investment goals, according to HSBC Global Private Banking’s Investment Outlook. The report, "Innovate or Stagnate", sets out how increased trade frictions and rapid AI-led innovation are among the major changes that are challenging markets, so high net worth and ultra high net worth clients need to adapt quickly to this fast-evolving world. In Q1, the bank upgraded its outlook for Chinese stocks to positive and raised its allocation to eurozone equities to neutral. It maintains its medium-term optimism in the US, but diversifies across countries and sectors as opportunities spread. It further diversifies its portfolio strategy to address tail risks through high-quality bonds, hedge funds and gold. Its four priorities going into Q2-2025 are: • Global AI adopters and electrification: Technology-driven earnings growth is moving from AI enablers to AI adopters. Rising energy consumption is driving investments in electricity generation capacity and the electric grid. • Multi-asset and active fixed income strategies: Diversification across asset classes, geographies and sectors offer global opportunities for improved risk-adjusted returns. The busy news flow lends itself to active managers. • Private markets and hedge funds: Private equity is well placed to benefit from M&A, and the AI boom will help smaller firms compete with established public market peers. Hedge funds can exploit volatility and relative value opportunities. • Domestic resilience in an evolving Asia: Asia’s diverse markets present a broad range of opportunities, particularly in Indian, Singapore and Japanese stocks. Chinese stocks should benefit from AI-led innovation and reduced regulatory risks. Willem Sels, Global Chief Investment Officer at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, said: “While the global economy is facing challenges, it remains resilient as government and corporate spending is supporting economic activity, while innovation in AI is boosting productivity. Global central banks are also assisting by maintaining a monetary easing bias. The underperformance of the US in the year to date can at least in part be attributed to increased optimism in other countries and opportunities outside the tech sector.” Georgios Leontaris, Chief Investment Officer, Switzerland and EMEA, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, said: “Exceptionalism has often been associated with the US economy in recent years, however the same characterisation can be made about the non-oil economy in GCC countries, which is up almost 20% compared to pre-Covid levels led by strength in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Solid fundamentals and ample sovereign wealth buffers provide a cushion against external uncertainties. Structural reforms and multi-year investment programmes in infrastructure, technology and hospitality remain visible. We have recently upgraded our view on UAE equities as part of our drive to broaden geographical diversification, with undemanding P/E multiples offering a good entry point for international investors.”

The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.America is now the problem, not the solution. Long the anchor of the rules-based international order, the US has turned protectionist, posing major risks to an already fragile global trade cycle.At the same time, Trump’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement has driven a powerful wedge between the US and Europe and divided North America, with Canada’s very independence in Trump’s crosshairs. The central role of the US in sustaining post-World War II geostrategic stability has been shattered.The US will be unable to put the genie back in the bottle. Trump’s shocking actions have eroded the trust that has underpinned America’s global leadership, and the damage will be evident long after Trump has left the scene. Having once abdicated its moral authority as the anchor of the free world, who is to say it can’t happen again?This breakdown in trust will cast a long and lasting shadow over economic performance, not least in the US itself, where it is affecting business decision-making, especially the costly long-term commitments associated with hiring and capital spending. Businesses need to scale their future operations relative to confident expectations of future growth trajectories – now an increasingly uncertain proposition. Asset values and consumer confidence, too, have been shaken. Uncertainty, the enemy of decision-making, is likely to freeze the most dynamic segments of the US economy.For China, state-directed policy guidance might temper the initial blow of a Trump policy shock. But the pressures of Trump’s tariff escalation will undermine China’s export-led growth model, which is especially problematic for economic growth, given the lingering weakness of China’s domestic demand.The country’s long-promised consumer-led rebalancing of the economy remains more of a slogan than an actual shift in the sources of Chinese growth – especially with a deficient social safety net that continues to encourage fear-driven precautionary saving. China’s just-announced 30-point action plan to boost household demand draws much-needed attention to the seemingly chronic plight of the Chinese consumer. But it offers only modest support to an inadequate social safety net.The Trump shock is likely not only to exacerbate the Sino-American conflict but also to weaken both countries’ growth prospects significantly. Don’t count on other economies filling this void. Eventually, India might be able to take up some of the slack. But its relatively small share of world GDP – currently 8.5% (in purchasing-power-parity terms), compared to 34% for China and the US combined – means that that day is in the distant future.The same is true of Europe. While the European Union’s 14% share of world GDP is nearly double that of India, Europe remains saddled with anaemic growth, compounded by mounting trade pressures associated with an escalating global tariff war.If the apparent breakdown of the transatlantic alliance has a silver lining, it is that the incentives for strategic cohesion should have an outsize impact on European defence spending. But that will also take time. Meanwhile, Europe will equally be exposed to the adverse effects on business and consumer expectations and decision-making, comparable to those afflicting the US.What does all this mean for global economic prospects in the coming years? The current baseline expectation of around 3.3% world GDP growth for 2025-26, as per recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, is far too sanguine. While there may be some front-loading of growth momentum in the early part of this year – exemplified by accelerated shipments of Chinese exports ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes – I suspect that the downside risks will progressively build.That points to a fractional reduction of forecasts for global economic growth for 2025, with the slowdown becoming considerably more pronounced in 2026 and after. That could easily push an increasingly fragile world economy down to the 2.5% growth threshold, typically associated with outright global recession.Nor is this likely to be a standard shortfall of global growth. To the extent that the tariff war is aimed at promoting friendshoring and strengthening supply-chain resilience, the global economy’s supply side is likely to come under significant strain. A new layer of adjustment costs is being imposed on a once-globalised world. Reshoring to higher-cost local producers not only takes considerable time but also erodes the efficiencies of production, assembly, and delivery that have underpinned worldwide disinflation over the past three decades.Nearly five years ago, in the depths of the Covid-19 shock, I warned that the onset of stagflation was only “a broken supply chain away.” Subsequent experience and research have borne that out, confirming that the supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath generated significant upward pressure on prices.A global trade conflict implies a similar dynamic. The higher costs associated with Trump’s coming “reciprocal” escalation of multilateral tariffs, which are due to be announced on April 2, are especially problematic. In the face of a likely shortfall of economic growth, the added cost and price pressures are likely to tip the scales toward a global stagflation.The Trump shock, in short, is the functional equivalent of a full-blown crisis. It is likely to have a lasting impact on the US and Chinese economies, and the contagion is almost certain to spread throughout the world through cross-border trade and capital flows. Perhaps most importantly, this is a geostrategic crisis, reflecting a reversal of America’s global leadership role. In the space of little more than two months, Trump has turned the world inside out. If my assessment of this shock is anywhere close to the mark, concerns over the global economic forecast seem almost trivial. — Project Syndicate• Stephen S Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China and Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives.

Chinese Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday pledged stronger policy support for the world’s No 2 economy, which he said had started 2025 well and was on track to hit this year’s growth target, buoyed by advancements in AI and other technologies.His keynote speech at a business and political summit in the island province of Hainan comes in a week where Beijing has mounted a charm offensive to woo fresh foreign investment for its sluggish economy and protect against simmering geopolitical tensions.Chinese policymakers have put expanding domestic demand top of the agenda this year as they try to cushion the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff salvos, but have struggled to assuage foreign investors’ concerns over the durability of the post-pandemic recovery underway in the $18tn economy.“In the first two months of this year, the economy started off steadily, continuing the recovery momentum seen since the fourth quarter of last year, China’s sixth-ranking official told delegates at the annual Boao Forum.“This year’s growth target of around 5% is determined through careful calculations and meticulous planning, and is supported by both growth potential and favourable conditions, along with strong policy measures,” Ding said.“More proactive and effective macroeconomic policies will be implemented to comprehensively expand domestic demand and stabilise foreign trade and investment,” he added.Foreign investors have soured on China in the years since the Covid pandemic, with business’ longstanding concerns about geopolitics, tightening regulations and a more favourable playing field for state-owned companies weighing heavier.Foreign direct investment into China dropped an annual 13.4% or $13.5bn in January, according to the most recent data from China’s commerce ministry.“We will steadily expand institutional opening up, further ease market access for foreign investment... and sincerely welcome enterprises from all countries to invest and develop in China,” Ding said.Policymakers would also make “greater efforts” to “promote the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets,” he added, which will be crucial to encouraging Chinese consumers to spend again, analysts say, given that 70% of household wealth is held in real estate.Ding also talked up China’s increasing competitiveness in new energy vehicles (NEV), where Western accusations that Chinese firms benefit from unfair state subsidies have seen its producers hit with tariffs, as well as in artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing and quantum technologies.“China’s economy is advancing towards new frontiers, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and self-strengthening,” Ding told delegates, which included Chinese smartphone and NEV maker Xiaomi’s CEO Lei Jun.But amid the talk of self-strengthening, Ding reiterated Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s message at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday that countries should open their markets and “resolutely oppose trade and investment protectionism,” in a veiled reference to the Trump administration.

Qatar Finance and Business Academy (QFBA) has announced the winners of the first edition of the National Finance Researcher Award during a special ceremony held to recognise outstanding students at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels and to honour their innovative contributions in the fields of finance and business.Launched under the sponsorship of Doha Bank, the award seeks to inspire and support the next generation of finance researchers in Qatar, promote academic excellence, foster creativity and innovation, and provide a national platform for young researchers to present their work and contribute to the development of Qatar’s financial and banking sectors.Dr Khalifa al-Yafei, CEO, Qatar Finance and Business Academy, expressed his pride in the successful launch of the award, emphasising the academy’s ongoing commitment to empowering emerging researchers and cultivating an environment of academic innovation.“This award reflects our commitment to fostering a thriving research culture in the fields of finance and business and to recognising the intellectual efforts that contribute to knowledge-based economic development. It aligns with the objectives of Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy and the Qatar National Vision 2030. As a strategic initiative, the award will continue annually to encourage high-impact research and help translate academic findings into practical applications that benefit the national economy.“We also extend our sincere appreciation to Doha Bank for its generous sponsorship of this award, which underscores the bank’s commitment to advancing scientific research and innovation in the financial sector. Congratulations to all the winners for their exceptional achievements.”During the event, Doha Bank was recognised for its valuable contributions, along with members of the judging panel, which comprised a distinguished group of academics and industry experts. The ceremony concluded with the announcement of the winners in the five designated award categories.Selections were made following a thorough evaluation process conducted by an independent panel, based on a set of rigorous academic standards, including originality, innovation, methodology, depth of analysis, relevance, impact, practical implications, and knowledge contribution.The winners are:- Buthaina Rashid al-Saidi, recipient of the ‘Best Qatari Finance Researcher Award’ for the paper titled ‘The impact of investment allocation on the financial performance of listed insurance companies in Qatar’.- Jamela Ali Mohammed, first place (bachelor’s degree Research Project Award) for the paper ‘Exploring the incorporation of ESG investment for SRI in Qatar’.- Abeeha Shoaib, second place (bachelor’s degree Research Project Award) for the paper ‘How did Covid-19 affect Shariah- compliant versus conventional firms’ operating performance?’- Ameera Fatima Anaz, first place (master’s degree Research Project Award) for the paper ‘Sustainability performance, credit ratings and share price: a global study’- Bashayer Hamad al-Kaabi, second place (master’s degree Research Project Award) for the paper ‘Analysis of climate change news sentiment’s impact on GCC stock markets’The first edition of the award saw the participation of talented students from prominent academic institutions in Qatar, including Qatar University, University of Doha for Science and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar, Qatar Finance and Business Academy in collaboration with Northumbria University, and Hamad Bin Khalifa University.