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Hamad International Training Centre (HITC), part of Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) has established a new branch at University of Doha for Science and Technology (UDST).The new location was formally opened by Ali al-Janahi, acting assistant managing director and chief of tertiary care at HMC and Dr Salem al-Naemi, president of UDST along with other dignitaries.HITC provides opportunities for physicians, nurses, paramedics, and allied health practitioners to continue their professional and personal development. This encompasses basic and advanced levels of professional medical and public training.Al-Janahi said the collaboration with UDST’s College of Health Sciences will support training and development of the next generation of healthcare professionals in Qatar.“This will enable HMC and HITC to meet the increased demand for its healthcare training activities. It will also support the students of healthcare programmes at UDST, giving them practical skills and training; enabling them to conduct research and interact with healthcare practitioners and gain insight into the diversity of healthcare training and interprofessional programmes.”Dr Abdullatif al-Khal, a member of the Board of Trustees at UDST and the deputy chief medical officer and director of medical education at HMC, said the new HITC branch is a major expansion that combines international standards with the necessary focus to address the specific needs of Qatar’s healthcare professionals.“We are proud that our resuscitation training programmes consistently meet the highest international standards, and this is important both for the current and the next generation of healthcare practitioners as well as their patients,” Dr al-Khal said.Dr al-Naemi, noted: “The Hamad International Training Centre reflects our commitment to advancing healthcare education and research, and demonstrates our belief in academia-industry partnerships that help us nurture a workforce capable of meeting the healthcare challenges of today and tomorrow. Together with HMC, we are forging paths to excellence in healthcare services and education. This centre is not just a facility; it's a promise to our nation ensuring that the legacy of care continues to evolve with the demands of our community.”Director of HITC Dr Khalid Abdulnoor said the new branch was a unique re-purposing of the Field Hospital Old Industrial Area which was built by HMC during the Covid-19 pandemic.“This facility, which impacted so many lives positively during the pandemic, has found a new home and a new direction at the UDST campus and will bring more educational opportunities to UDST students. This redesign ensures its continued role in supporting the education and training of healthcare professionals and students,” he added.

The Western medical system is unable to address the root cause of disease. Shifting to preventative healthcare may mitigate costs while also reducing the time between illness and wellness.As society has developed, so has our approach to health and wellness. While it may seem like it’s been revolutionized by technological advances, the Western healthcare system is still far from perfect. Each year, millions go without treatment either because it is too expensive or because their practitioners are not focused on long-term issues. This ‘reactive’ approach to health prevents society from narrowing the gap between illness and wellness. To finally give patients the relief they desire, the Western medical system should focus on preventative care. By proactively monitoring patient health and suggesting several strategies to improve their baseline, illnesses can become less severe. These changes will create a ripple wave of change bringing benefits to patients, their families, and our economy. The only problem is that the Western medical system doesn’t incentivize keeping patients healthy.Health insurance became a standard employee benefit after World War 2. Companies were struggling to attract workers despite offering higher salaries, so they began offering additional benefits like health insurance. In the beginning, the premiums for this coverage were low. However, prices increased as more players entered the space. Nowadays, insurance is an expensive cost for many. Millions in the United States are uninsured and those with private insurance through their employer still face struggles. Since payers and employers are aligned on their desire to keep costs low, most of these insurance plans only cover short-term treatments for acute illness. This forces employees to pay out of pocket when they need long-term support to manage a disease or heal from an injury.Many medical professionals suggest that the main solution to this problem is preventative healthcare. As mentioned earlier, it is in insurance companies' and employers’ best interest to keep coverage costs as low as possible. Yet, this issue becomes even more concerning when pharmaceutical companies enter the mix. Since they profit from prescribing medicines, this sector negatively influences the type of care that patients receive. Symptoms are treated at face value without considering critical factors like diet, lifestyle, and genetics. This perpetuates society’s culture of illness and prohibits patients from taking control of their health journey.If preventative care is used to disrupt this cycle, patients will become healthier and more productive. They would become more innovative and hardworking in their jobs, bringing economic benefits. People would also see positives in their personal lives. Preventative healthcare is the key to unlocking this. Implementing this approach shifts the focus from symptoms to a holistic picture of a person’s health.Medical professionals and researchers have been looking into preventative healthcare and functional medicine, an alternative methodology for treating the root cause of conditions. This type of medicine has become popular within society, especially in the wake of COVID-19. People have embraced the idea that health includes mental, physical, and spiritual wellness. These new attitudes are influencing the rise of private medical practices offering preventative healthcare. The Q Institute is a popular provider focused on becoming the medical practice of the future.The Miami-based longevity clinic lies at the intersection between preventative care and health optimization. The Q Institute’s Medical Director, Dr. Mark Zhuk, a family and community medicine doctor, realized that routine check-ups aren’t enough.“In the Western world, we see health in a very transactional way,” Dr. Zhuk says. “We go to the doctor every year for a physical and we forget about things after that. While we may try to keep a good diet and fitness routine, The Q Institute highlights that our medical system isn’t designed to address presymptomatic diseases or effectively treat emerging issues. At our clinic, we help clients take control of their health journey in a holistic way that prevents them from suffering in the future. The Q Institute specializes in early disease detection and optimizing health through cutting-edge practices.”The Q Institute offers several high-tech services such as concierge medicine, comprehensive blood panels, advanced imaging, ozone therapy, and food sensitivity testing. Throughout its history, the clinic has addressed heart disease and cancer for many clients, which are the two most prevalent diseases in America. The Q Institute has also given clients peace of mind by monitoring disease progression, pinpointing biological risks through genetic profiling, and designing personalized diet and fitness regimes for a balanced approach.The healthcare industry is changing rapidly as artificial intelligence and machine learning is solving age-old problems and streamlining new issues. In the face of these changes, patients will become more interested in exploring new methods for protecting themselves from disease and proactively managing their health. The Q Institute will become a beacon for hope and innovation in this climate, providing vital support to clients worldwide.

EU leaders grappled at a summit meeting on Thursday with how to get more weapons to Ukraine’s outgunned forces while also re-arming their own countries in the face of Russia’s emboldened President Vladimir Putin.More than two years into Moscow’s war against its neighbour, Kyiv’s troops are struggling to hold back the Russian army as Western deliveries of ammunition have faltered.Putin has tightened his iron grip over his country by winning a new six-year term at elections after opposition was crushed.Addressing the EU’s 27 leaders via videolink, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told them the shortfall in ammunition facing his troops was “humiliating” for Europe.“Europe can provide more — and it is crucial to prove it now,” he said, also calling for additional air-defence systems in the wake of a large-scale strike on Kyiv.As a $60bn package remains stalled in Washington, the EU leaders debated a plan to use profits from €200bn in frozen Russian central bank assets on weapons for Ukraine. The proposal could unlock some €3bn ($3.3bn) a year for Kyiv, but leaders were not expected to give the final go-ahead on Thursday.That would come on top of more than €33bn that the EU says it has provided towards arming Ukraine since the Kremlin invaded in February 2022.Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had been cautious about undermining EU markets, threw his weight behind the plan as legally sound.But the Kremlin warned it would use legal and “other methods of retaliation” to hit back.Alongside the efforts to get more weapons to Kyiv, the EU is also scrambling for ways to boost Europe’s defence industry to be able to arm Ukraine and build up its own forces.Brussels has put forward a raft of proposals aimed at ramping up capacity but there are complaints that Europe is still not moving fast enough.While Russia has put its economy on a war footing, the EU has fallen well short of a promise made last year to supply Ukraine with a million artillery shells by this month.But the Czech Republic has spearheaded its own initiative aimed at getting hundreds of thousands of shells available around the world to send to Kyiv.France and Estonia have pitched the idea of using joint borrowing — similar to the massive package of support the EU came up with during the Covid pandemic — to fund defence spending.But a majority of member states, led by so-called “frugal” countries such as Germany, are unwilling to go anywhere near that far.“If that doesn’t fly, then propose something else, some other solution that we can solve this problem, because there is a big problem of funding the defence industry,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.Instead, the discussion was set to focus on getting the EU’s lending arm, the European Investment Bank, to expand its funding for the sector.At the moment, the bank is limited to investing in only a small number of “dual-use products” that can have both military and civilian functions.While the response to the conflict in Ukraine dominated the summit, EU leaders were also looking for a united stance on the war in Gaza, with United Nations chief Antonio Guterres in attendance.Diplomats say an overwhelming majority of countries support a call for an “immediate humanitarian pause” in Israel’s offensive and a warning for it not to launch a ground operation in Rafah.But Irish premier Leo Varadkar said staunch Israeli allies the Czech Republic and Austria were reluctant to back that wording, in the latest obstacle to EU unity on the issue.“The response to the appalling crisis in Palestine has not been Europe’s finest hour, quite frankly,” he said.Closer to home, EU leaders look set to give the green light to opening membership talks with Bosnia, as Russia’s war has sparked a push to expand the bloc.Diplomats said that the Balkan state would likely get an agreement on launching talks, but they could only start in earnest when the country had passed more reforms.“It’s a two-step approach,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.“Yes, opening membership talks, but also, yes, working on all the outstanding issues before we can take the next step.”

Eighteen months after Europe ended its decade-long experiment with negative interest rates, the Bank of Japan has done the same with its first rate hike in 17 years. It marks the end of an era few expect to see again.Brought in after the late 2000s global recession and debt crisis, negative rates turned money orthodoxy on its head by charging banks to park deposits with their central bank rather than paying them interest for doing so.The aim was to encourage enough bank lending to kick-start growth in moribund post-crisis economies and ward off the threat of deflation. Most policymakers now conclude they didn’t work as well as planned and that, in any case, things have moved on.“The days of ultra-low rates are over,” Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, said this week in a wide-ranging policy speech.“Inflation will partly depend on factors that are not under central banks’ control,” he said, citing rising trade tensions, ageing populations and climate change among global factors that could keep prices – and thus borrowing costs – higher.In the early 2010s, the world’s big three central banks – the BoJ, European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve – all cut rates to rock-bottom.The Fed went no further, partly because its policymakers doubted US law would permit a negative rates policy.The others, fearful that deflation – which prompts consumers to defer purchases so as to secure lower prices later – might trap their economies in recession, decided to go below zero.The Swiss National Bank, Swedish Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank did likewise, prompting accusations from commercial bank chiefs that central banks were undermining the banking sector’s business model.One Danish bank even offered a negative mortgage rate to attract business, effectively paying home-buyers to lend them money. The act of saving earned little reward, prompting tabloid campaigns against negative rates in Germany and Switzerland. Yet it became clear the policies were not having the desired effect. While ECB studies suggest negative rates did add about 0.7 percentage points to growth in loans each year, that wasn’t ever enough to bring eurozone inflation up to the central bank’s target of around 2%.Some critics of negative rates argue that lack of access to credit was never the main reason for Europe’s sluggish recovery and that deeper problems – such as lack of competitiveness and public investment – were outside the domain of monetary policy.“It’s a bit like when you have a hammer and everything looks like a nail,” said Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis.“There’s only so much central banks in the end can do to spur growth, and they clearly ran into the limit here.”The Fed, which held rates above but close to zero, similarly found its efforts to cure roughly a decade of below-target inflation yielded only slow and often unsatisfactory results.Ultimately, the world was bounced out of the low-inflation era by supply chain snags created by the Covid-19 pandemic, compounded by the massive fiscal stimulus programmes of rich nations and energy shocks linked to the Ukraine war.The Bank of Japan remains far behind other central banks, which have hiked rates at unprecedented speed to stifle these new inflationary pressures and only now are starting to think a cautious easing might be possible. But policymakers are still dealing with the distortions created by negative rates, not least a financial system awash with trillions of dollars of cheap money and excess funds which banks can simply park with the central bank for an easy profit.Just as worrying has been the impact on fiscal policy across the world, encouraging governments to amass record debts – borrowing that was initially cheap but which has become more expensive as interest rates rose to more normal levels.“The post-GFC (global financial crisis) low interest rate environment flattered fiscal accounts,” said BIS’s Carstens.“Fiscal authorities have a narrow window in which to get their house in order before the public’s trust in their commitments starts to fray.”

Dr Hazem Elewa, associate professor and head, Clinical Training and Education at QU’s College of Pharmacy, alongside a team of experts, has been recognised with the Star of Excellence Award at the 11th Stars of Excellence event for his project titled “The First Anticoagulation Drive-up Service in the Middle East and North Africa Region.”The honour was in the category of ‘Excellence in Health: Clinical Practice Award’.The project represents a paradigm shift in the delivery of anticoagulation therapy, particularly in the context of Covid-19 pandemic.The initiative aimed to address the challenges faced by patients requiring routine anticoagulation monitoring.Dr Elewa and his team conceptualised the Anticoagulation Drive-up Service, offering patients the opportunity to undergo checks without leaving the safety of their vehicles.This innovative approach not only mitigated the risk of exposure to infectious agents but also garnered widespread appreciation from both patients and healthcare providers.During the Covid-19 pandemic, stringent regulations were enforced in Qatar to curb the spread of the virus, including social distancing measures and the adoption of telemedicine for outpatient consultations.The implementation of the drive-up service aligned perfectly with these guidelines, ensuring continuity of care while prioritising patient safety.The success of the drive-up service was further validated by a comprehensive evaluation of anticoagulation quality outcomes.With high levels of patient and staff satisfaction, coupled with positive clinical outcomes, the Anticoagulation Drive-Up Service has now been established as the new standard of care, symbolising a significant milestone in healthcare innovation in the region.

Consolidation of Europe's airlines is necessary to keep the industry competitive, the CEOs of British Airways owner IAG and Ryanair said on Wednesday, as the EU continues to assess a potential new deal between Germany's Lufthansa and Italian rival ITA Airways. "If we don't allow consolidation in Europe, we will destroy airlines in Europe," IAG CEO Luis Gallego told an aviation conference. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said on the same panel that consolidation "does need to be encouraged". “(Portugal's) TAP has only survived through Covid because the taxpayer," he said. "Aer Lingus was acquired by IAG... those airlines have been much the better and have a more secure future as part of bigger airlines." The European Commission is due to say this week how it views Lufthansa's bid to acquire a 41% minority stake in state-owned ITA for €325mn ($352.30mn). Lufthansa's CEO said he wanted to close the deal "as soon as possible", and was optimistic ahead of the expected EU statement of objections. EU antitrust regulators opened an investigation into the potential deal in January, with warnings it could reduce competition in flights to and from Italy. Potential solutions could include opening up slots, traffic rights and planes to allow a rival to operate on some routes. Under the terms of the rescue plan, Cologne-based Lufthansa would initially buy 41% of the successor to failed flagship Alitalia from the Italian state, with an option to acquire the rest later. The transaction marks the latest attempt to resurrect the ailing Italian carrier, which officially ceased operations in 2021. While the Italian government has provided as much as €3bn in support for the new airline, the EU permitted a capital injection of €1.35bn under its state-aid regime. Last year, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni urged the commission to move quickly on its review in order to lessen the load on Italian taxpayers. As part of an in-depth probe, which started in late January, EU watchdogs said they had concerns over both short- and long-haul flights from Italy. They also highlighted how routes between Italy and North America could be affected and whether flights provided by Lufthansa and its partners United Airlines and Air Canada should be treated as a single entity. Potential solutions, previously reported by Bloomberg, include the disposal of slots at Milan Linate airport, which is dominated by ITA and the wider Lufthansa group, encompassing Swiss, Austrian and Belgian regional units. Elsewhere, Boeing has warned that it will burn more cash in the first quarter than previously expected as the US plane maker grapples with the consequences of the blowout of a door panel in mid-flight from a 737 Max earlier this year. Brian West, chief financial officer, said cash outflow would reach $4bn-$4.5bn in the first quarter, higher than forecast in January. A plan to reach a $10bn cash flow target by 2025-2026 would also take longer, said West, at a Bank of America conference in London. Boeing has had to limit production of its 737 Max aircraft in the wake of the crisis as it seeks to improve the quality of its manufacturing and deal with increased regulatory scrutiny. “We’re not at the moment where we can manage the near term for these financial outcomes because of the work at hand around stability,” West said. “Our expectation is that we’ll get more predictable and better positioned, but it will take time.” Boeing’s current production rate of the 737 currently sits in the “low-to-mid 30s”, and the airframer will restrict output to “below 38” jets per month as it works through quality issues raised by two recent safety audits. Speaking this week at the Bank of America Global Industrials conference in London, Boeing chief financial officer Brian West said the monthly figure is set to rise over the course of 2024, as the company addresses its numerous production problems. Meanwhile, at the "Europe 2024" conference in Berlin, Guillaume Faury, the CEO of Airbus, expressed his concern over the ongoing issues faced by Boeing. Faury emphasised the detrimental impact these problems have on the entire aerospace industry, highlighting the importance of quality and safety in aviation. He said, "I am not happy with the problems of my competitor. They are not good for the industry as a whole." The NTSB announces plans to hold an investigative hearing on August 6 and 7 about its investigation "into how and why a door plug departed" from the passenger jet during flight. The hearing will be live-streamed, featuring investigators, witnesses and others. On the same day, Boeing responds to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) audit's conclusions announced the previous week. "FAA inspectors went deep into our Renton factories in January and February to audit our production and quality control," says Stan Deal, the CEO of Boeing's commercial airplanes division. The "vast majority" of problems, he adds, pertained to situations where Boeing employees didn't follow the company's processes and procedures. Deal promises to focus on improving compliance by working with employees and conducting more internal audits. Of the expert review, he says Boeing's procedures were too complicated. "If you spot an issue, you are fully empowered to report it through your manager or the Speak Up portal," Deal says. FAA chief Michael Whitaker has spoken of a recent visit to Boeing’s facilities in which he saw for himself that the company’s focus appears to be on production rather than safety and quality. In an interview on NBC with Lester Holt, the FAA Administrator said that Boeing’s “mindset” around production needs to “shift”. “There are issues around the safety culture in Boeing. Their priorities have been focused on production and not on safety and quality. And so, what we are really focused on now is shifting that focus from production to safety and quality,” Whitaker told the NBC show. In a statement to NBC, Boeing said: “We are taking significant action to strengthen safety and quality at Boeing. We are focused on demonstrating change and building trust one airplane at a time. This increased scrutiny, whether from ourselves, from the FAA or from others will make us better.” The author is an aviation analyst. Twitter handle: @AlexInAir

The Public Health Department at Qatar University (QU) Health offers a dynamic curriculum at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels, a statement said Monday. Public health encompasses a wide range of disciplines, including epidemiology, biostatistics, environmental health, health policy, and health promotion. Its primary goal is to improve health and well-being, reduce the risk of disease and injury, and address health inequities within and between communities or populations. Public health professionals work to identify and assess health assets, strengths, and risks, develop and implement ethical, evidence-based initiatives, and advocate for policies that improve health and well-being outcomes and enhance the quality of life for everyone. The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the critical importance of the public health field in protecting the well-being of populations worldwide. Public health professionals have played a central role in the response to the pandemic, working tirelessly to track and contain the spread of the virus, provide essential healthcare services, and educate the public about preventive measures. The pandemic has highlighted the interconnectedness of global health and the need for coordinated efforts to address emerging infectious diseases effectively. Public health interventions such as widespread testing, contact tracing, vaccination campaigns, and public health messaging have been essential in controlling the spread of the virus and alleviating its impact on healthcare systems and economies. The lessons learned from the pandemic emphasise the need for public health professionals to protect and promote the health and well-being of individuals, communities, and societies as a whole. To respond to this need in Qatar, the Department of Public Health in the College of Health Sciences at QU Health offers a 4-year Bachelor’s degree in Public Health and a 2-year Master of Public Health (MPH) degree. Both programmes are in the process of being accredited by the Council on Education for Public Health (CEPH). The Bachelor programme in Public Health has two concentrations: Health Education and Health Management. The MPH degree also has two concentrations: epidemiology and health promotion. Both programmes offer a dynamic curriculum with students engaging in hands-on projects, case studies, and real-world scenarios to develop practical skills. Faculty members have extensive experience in public health, and students have the opportunity to learn from experts who are actively involved in research, policy development, and community engagement.

The question of whether corporate greed has contributed to inflation has polarised views among economists – however they should be able to find consensus on measures to improve competition With inflation proving to be both higher and ‘stickier’ than many had anticipated, economic analysis has looked at a wider range of possible causes, in addition to the conventional explanations around money supply, wages, market forces and the economic cycle. One point of discussion is whether opportunistic companies are passing on more than increased supply costs to customers, a dynamic that has been called ‘greedflation’. In the pure markets of economic theory, a company increasing its prices excessively would simply cause customers to move elsewhere, and competitors would be tempted to lower prices to attract them. Arguably, ‘pure’ markets do not exist, but some are purer than others, so there is much to analyse and debate. The economist Isabella Weber, of the University of Massachusetts, has been prominent in arguing that ‘greedflation’, or ‘seller’s inflation’ has been significant, reporting that some companies pass on all the increased supply cost, and more, to customers, and sustain such an approach. Some firms may lose market share as a result, but the problem, Professor Weber argues, is that a ‘price over volume’ strategy can be profitable when there are overlapping supply shocks. Bottlenecks can produce temporary monopoly power, she says. The International Monetary Fund has given some support to the theory, with the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF Gita Gopinath stating in June 2023 that, if inflation is to fall quickly, companies should allow their profit margins to decline and absorb the rise in labour costs. More conventional analyses of recent inflationary pressures, put forward for example in The Economist, emphasize the role of loose monetary policy, combined with supply shocks, such as that caused by the conflict in Ukraine. They downplay or dismiss seller’s inflation, describing instead a well observed phenomenon of too much money chasing too few goods, with both inflation and higher profit margins resulting from the fiscal stimuli of high public spending and low interest rates during Covid. Although debate among some economists has been polarised, the two theories are not mutually exclusive. Inflation has multiple causes, and is a complex phenomenon. Ultra-low interest rates and supply shocks have certainly been influential factors. It is likely also that companies, at least for a period, may use rising costs as a ‘cover’ for boosting margins, but whether this is temporary and inevitable to prevent insolvency, or suspicious, may reflect the effectiveness of competition policy. Outright price fixing, unlawful in many jurisdictions, can occur. There have been investigations in the food industry in the US, and some meat suppliers have agreed to settle lawsuits relating to price fixing. Given that critics of the ‘sellers’ inflation’ theory tend to be free market economists, it shouldn’t be difficult to find a consensus around policy responses that boost competition. Higher interest rates have been only partially effective in curbing inflation. They can curb supply as well as demand, by adding to costs of some companies. So it is perfectly rational to explore complementary policies that may encourage downward pressure on prices. Where blatant price fixing does not occur, but competition is weak, there are measures that governments and regulators can take. A small economy such as Qatar is more prone to problems of lack of competitiveness. There may be a single agent for a multinational company for example. In a sector dominated by one or two players, with high capital requirements and running costs, the barriers to entry are high for an aspiring disruptor, and too high in order to access a relatively small market. Higher interest rates can increase the cost of entry by making capital more expensive. A new entrant may have to endure trading at a loss for an extended period while building market share. Many companies in the Middle East are private, so the public does not have access to data on profit margins. Regulators have more information, and so the onus falls on them to encourage stronger competition. They need to look at gross profit margin, not just net profits, because it has been known for companies to pay questionable ‘management fees’ to increase their apparent costs and reduce profit margins and tax. On the other hand, company executives may argue that healthy profit margins help investor returns, job security and potential for reinvestment, so the issue is complex. Governments and competition regulators should be active on this issue, especially regarding prices of life’s essentials, such as fuel and food. Rigid price controls are unrealistic in a free market, but political and regulatory pressure can be brought to bear where margins look high and competition is limited. A favourable policy mix for start-up companies can boost competition. So for all the debate about whether ‘greedflation’ exists, many policies that would curb or deter the practice would solve other problems, and should attract broad support. The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Global trade growth is set for a modest recovery in 2024, QNB said in an economic commentary.International trade is a direct reflection of the state of the global economy. Trade reveals the appetite for final goods by consumers, as well as the need for intermediate and capital goods by firms. “Thus, trade volumes fluctuate in line with the global cycles of economic expansions and contractions, and are highly informative indicators of macroeconomic conditions,” QNB said.During the last five years, trade has shown remarkable volatility. After the sharp collapse in global trade volumes in 2020 generated by the Covid-pandemic shock, a strong rebound in 2021 was a significant contributing factor to the post-pandemic recovery. However, 2022 brought a sharp deceleration in trade activity amid a challenging environment of rising interest rates, high inflation, and increasing protectionism.Trade growth performance in 2023 was even more disappointing, with the latest preliminary estimates suggesting that it contracted by 0.3%.During the last 40 years, a contraction in trade was only observed in 2009 as a result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the Covid-pandemic.In QNB’s view, although trade growth will recover to around 2.8% this year, this is significantly below the historical long-run average of 4.6% during 2000-2022.In this commentary, QNB discusses the cyclical and structural factors that will restrain the recovery of trade to a pace below the historical average.First, the global manufacturing recession is reaching its end, but the recovery will be restrained. Throughout 2023, manufacturing activity remained subdued.This “manufacturing recession” was a result of a battery of factors: post-pandemic shift in consumption towards services, higher costs of living, tighter financial conditions, and a weaker than expected rebound in Chinese manufacturing.“But these headwinds are now gradually fading, and the manufacturing downturn has reached its trough,” QNB said.QNB expects global industrial activity to recover on the back of easier financial conditions, falling inflation, and a resilient global economy.However, the recovery will be held-back by still-elevated inventories, as the de-stocking will weigh on manufacturing until inventory levels are normalised.Additionally, forward looking indicators are still pointing to below-trend growth. Therefore, the recovery in manufacturing will provide only a modest push to global trade growth this year.Second, protectionist policies and trade barriers continue to build up steadily at the global scale. The number of new trade restrictions around the world has increased from levels below 1,000 per year before 2019, to over 3,000 new restrictions in 2023.But in addition to traditional forms of restrictions, barriers to trade are beginning to take a new form.Climate-change mitigation efforts are leading to an increase in non-tariff measures (NTM) that imply new indirect restrictions for trade. NTM grounded on climate-change may include conditions regarding emission standards for machinery and vehicles, energy efficiency regulations, carbon footprint requisites, etc.The United Nations has identified 2,366 climate-related NTM that regulate $6.5tn worth of trade, or 26.4% of the global total. Each technical measure has an estimated average cost impact of 3.4% in manufacturing.Going forward, QNB noted the accumulation of trade barriers and new climate-change related trade regulation will represent an important obstacle to the expansion of world commerce.Third, the slowdown in investment growth in emerging markets (EM) implies a major headwind to global trade growth. Investment in EM is more import intensive than other components of demand, and in particular with respect to trade in capital goods.In previous years, strong investment growth was supported by robust credit expansion, capital inflows, improvements in terms of trade, and reforms aimed to enhance the investment climate.During 2000-2010, investment growth in EM averaged 9.4%, but then dropped to 4.8% during 2011-2021. This slowdown was extensive across all the EM regions and explained by factors including elevated debt levels, higher economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and China’s rebalancing towards consumption and away from investment and exports.Importantly, QNB expects this negative trend to persist. Given its critical role for global trade flows, the slowdown in EM investment points to a major headwind for global trade this year.“All in all, although we expect a recovery this year, growth in trade will continue to underperform relative to its long-run average, on the back of a modest manufacturing recovery, rising trade distortions, and the deceleration of EM investment,” QNB added.

Following weeks of intense negotiations, the European Union has agreed to revise its fiscal rules. The new rulebook will replace the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) – which has been suspended since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic – and modernise the bloc’s 25-year-old fiscal framework.While the SGP featured a one-size-fits-all model that ultimately undermined its credibility, the updated fiscal rules allow for a differentiated approach. The goal is to maintain the existing deficit and public debt limits while still encouraging member states to invest in green and digital technologies. Member states will be granted extended adjustment periods of up to seven years to reduce their debts to sustainable levels, provided they commit to reforms and investments that support this double (green/digital) transition.But while the EU’s efforts to strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth incentives are commendable, national budgets alone will not be enough to finance the EU’s ambitious double transition. The European Commission estimates that an annual investment of roughly €650bn ($700bn) is needed to meet the 2030 targets of producing at least 42.5% of the bloc’s energy from renewable sources and reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 55%.Under the new fiscal rules, funding for digital and green investments can be sourced from the €800 billion NextGenerationEU fund, which was established in 2020 to help European economies recover from the Covid-19 shock. But since the NGEU is scheduled to end in 2026, there is an urgent need for more durable financial mechanisms to support the EU’s long-term objectives.As matters stand, the NGEU’s focus on national investments has left transnational projects such as high-speed railways and hydrogen infrastructure severely underfunded. Moreover, the US Inflation Reduction Act has widened the investment gap between Europe and the United States. To restore its strategic autonomy, European leaders should build on the success of the NGEU.In a forthcoming paper, we propose the establishment of a $750bn EU public-goods fund aimed at bridging funding gaps in crucial areas like renewable energy and digital infrastructure. The primary focus of this fund would be to catalyse cross-border investments and support projects that struggle to secure funding without EU-level financial support. By making access to this fund contingent on compliance with the new fiscal rules, the EU could maintain fiscal discipline among member states.The public-goods fund, which would cover the 2026-30 period, is intended to align seamlessly with the EU’s climate goals. Building on the successful precedents established by previous EU borrowing initiatives, it would be financed by issuing EU bonds, backed by pooled national guarantees, the EU’s budget (bolstered by sufficient revenue streams), or both. Its proposed size represents roughly one-fifth of the bloc’s total investment needs through 2030, and the remaining investments would be financed through contributions from member states and the private sector.By focusing on cross-border investments, the fund would underscore the EU’s unified approach to tackling European challenges. At the same time, the requirement to comply with the new fiscal rules would broaden the conditional framework established by the NGEU programme, which linked fund access to the rule of law in recipient countries.Similarly, the proposed conditionality regime would tie access to the new fund to domestic fiscal discipline, thus aligning with the EU’s revised fiscal guidelines. Rather than facing penalties for non-compliance, as was the case under the previous SGP, countries would be incentivised to demonstrate fiscal responsibility.Thus, the conditionality regime would simultaneously boost the EU’s growth potential, uphold the integrity of the new fiscal rulebook, and encourage fiscal sustainability among member states. Moreover, increased debt issuance at the European level could be offset by reduced debt issuance at the national level.Once the fund is established, countries would be encouraged to submit comprehensive investment proposals for transnational projects. The European Investment Bank would determine whether they are eligible to access the fund’s resources based on their alignment with the EU’s double-transition targets and the potential for positive cross-border spillovers. Meanwhile, the European Commission would ascertain that the countries proposing these projects comply with fiscal rules.The fund’s proposed design aligns with the trend of using EU funds to achieve broader policy objectives. By relying on the successful model of the pandemic recovery fund and the bloc’s current conditionality regime, it would empower the EU to meet crucial climate targets while upholding its shared values.

Friday’s Champions League quarter-final draw is set to throw up a series of heavyweight ties after a midweek in which penalty shoot-out drama really brought Europe’s elite club competition to life.Goalkeeper Jan Oblak’s heroics in Atletico Madrid’s shoot-out win over last season’s runners-up Inter Milan on Wednesday – after the Spanish club came from behind in their last-16 tie – followed Arsenal’s triumph on penalties against Porto a day earlier. Tuesday also saw Barcelona deliver a rousing performance to see off Napoli and make it through to the quarter-finals for the first time since their 8-2 annihilation at the hands of Bayern Munich in 2020 in Lisbon, at the height of the Covid crisis.With record 14-time champions Real Madrid already having secured their last-eight berth, it means three Spanish clubs will be represented in the draw. They are joined by two English sides in Arsenal and holders Manchester City, as well as the German duo of Bayern and Borussia Dortmund, and French giants Paris Saint-Germain.The surprise is that none of Italy’s representatives reached the next stage, a year after Inter pushed City close in the final having eliminated neighbours AC Milan in the last four. Only three of last season’s quarter-finalists – City, Real and Bayern – have made it back to the last eight this time, suggesting there is still a real degree of variety and unpredictability to the competition.Yet the recent last-16 ties also more than hinted at the ever-growing polarisation at the very top of European football. FC Copenhagen could never really compete with Pep Guardiola’s City, while getting the better of PSG proved a step too far for Real Sociedad and Bayern ultimately brushed aside Lazio despite losing the first leg away.Only the mega-rich can now aspire to winning the Champions League, with four of the quarter-finalists posting revenue last season of over 800mn euros ($874mn) according to this year’s Deloitte Football Money League. Going by Deloitte’s ranking, all eight quarter-finalists were in the top 15 clubs in the world last season in terms of income – Atletico had the lowest at just over 364 million euros.Diego Simeone’s side were the only team to win against a richer club in the last 16, and even then Inter generated only marginally more money last season.The current format of the Champions League has been in place for two decades and will be changed for next season, when UEFA will revolutionise its flagship tournament by replacing the group stage with a league phase featuring 36 clubs, up from 32 now. Clubs will play eight games in the league phase, instead of six in the old group stage, all against different opponents in what is known as the “Swiss system”.It remains to be seen if that will somehow improve the Champions League, when the major issue appears to be that the number of candidates to win the trophy is getting narrower. Competing with City is not just an issue for Copenhagen, but for all clubs.Having won the trophy for the first time last season, they are into the quarter-finals for the seventh year running. “It’s quite impressive,” admitted Guardiola last week. “We are well-respected from our opponents. The numbers are there – our consistency.”Whether anyone can prevent them retaining the title may in large part come down to the draw, with the path to the final being determined on Friday when the semi-final match-ups will also be decided. Winners in 2022, Madrid may be the best equipped to beat City among all the sides left in the quarter-finals, but they were blown away by them in last season’s semi-finals.Bayern are into the quarter-finals for the 12th time in 13 years. They may be trailing behind Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, but they remain a formidable prospect in Europe. Three of the remaining contenders have never won the trophy, in Arsenal, Atletico and PSG, the French side reaching the final in 2020, when they lost to Bayern.They are far from a complete team now, but will be eager to seize their last chance to win the Champions League before Kylian Mbappe departs. “I am not going to choose one team or give my preferences. What I am sure of though is that nobody will want to play PSG,” said their coach Luis Enrique.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained that its "unlikely" that market interest rates will return to levels that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic caused a wave of inflation and higher yields.On why White House projections released Monday showed markedly higher expectations for interest rates in coming years compared with projections a year ago, Yellen said the new numbers were in line with private sector forecasts."I think it reflects current market realities and the forecasts that were seeing in the private sector- that it seems unlikely that yields are going to go back to being as low as they were before the pandemic," Yellen told reporters.Bloomberg News said that "the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes averaged 2.39% in the decade through 2019- low by historical standards. It spiked above 5% last October after the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to combat inflation, and now sits just below 4.2%."Treasury Secretary stressed that "its important that the assumptions that we built into the budget are reasonable and consistent with thinking of the broad range of forecasters."In Jan 2023, Yellen noted that it was likely that low rates would return, but last January she said "the jurys still out" on the question.The new White House projections were part of US President Joe Bidens $7.3 trillion fiscal 2025 budget proposal. The administration assume now that the average rates on three-month and 10-year US Treasury bills and notes will be markedly higher over the next three years than anticipated a year ago.