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Ursula von der Leyen has spent weeks trying to convince European Union lawmakers to back her for a second term as president of the European Commission. A day before a knife-edge vote, many said they still have not decided whether to support her.The European Parliament will decide today whether to appoint von der Leyen, 65, for another five years, providing continuity at the top of the 27-nation EU at a time of external and internal challenges.In her first term, the German centre-right former defence minister oversaw the launch of the world’s biggest package of policies to fight climate change, implementation of Europe’s €800bn ($875bn) response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and helped mobilise EU support for Ukraine.With the EU facing what some see as an existential threat from Russia’s war in Ukraine, uncertainty over November’s US presidential election and an assertive China, von der Leyen’s supporters say she offers stability.Blocking her appointment following a European Parliament election last month could plunge the EU into political deadlock, against a backdrop of growing popularity of far-right and eurosceptic parties among its member countries.It could also create a leadership vacuum by upending a deal on the EU’s other top leadership jobs and delaying the launch of the new European Commission, the EU executive arm, until 2025.“We all see the turmoil in the United States... It’s very clear, we need stability from the European Union,” said Bas Eickhout, co-head of the EU Parliament’s Green lawmaker group.Eickhout’s 53 green lawmakers and others in the EU assembly say they will not decide whether to support von der Leyen until she reveals what concessions she is offering in a speech outlining her plans today.“First, she has to commit to some concrete points,” said socialist lawmaker Delara Burkhardt, citing more EU funding so that industry and households can afford the green transition.Von der Leyen needs support from at least 361 of the European Parliament’s 720 lawmakers.The support of all lawmakers from her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), socialists and liberals would give her 401 votes, but it is a secret ballot and some members are expected to break ranks and oppose her.To pass comfortably, she may need support from parts of the 78-strong European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) or the Greens. Internal divisions in ECR make the Greens appear the safer bet.Winning over both factions is unlikely, given their opposing demands. The Greens want climate policies safeguarded. The ECR wants them weakened.Von der Leyen skipped a Nato summit in Washington last week to continue weeks of canvassing support but neither group has come out in support of her. Some lawmakers have indicated they will not back her.“I cannot imagine that we would be able to support Ursula von der Leyen,” Adam Bielan, who heads the ECR’s 18 Polish lawmakers, said after a meeting with her on Tuesday, citing “wrong decisions” on migration and climate change.Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy group, which is part of the ECR, has not confirmed whether its 24 lawmakers will support von der Leyen.There is no clear “Plan B” candidate for securing lawmakers’ backing if von der Leyen does not do so. Some members of the European Parliament say that thwarting her would embolden eurosceptic lawmakers — who pledge to oppose her — by indicating that their strengthened numbers after last month’s election have empowered them to disrupt EU institutions.“It would be seen as a victory, particularly for the far right,” said EPP lawmaker Sean Kelly, who plans to back her.

Africa’s aviation industry holds significant potential for growth and development, given the continent's rising population, economic prospects, increasing urbanisation and the need for improved connectivity.Africa has one of the fastest growing populations in the world. A burgeoning middle class with rising disposable incomes is expected to increase demand for air travel.Undoubtedly, many African countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, which boosts both business and leisure travel. This growth will potentially lead to increased investments in the continent’s aviation infrastructure.Africa is home to numerous tourist attractions, including wildlife reserves, historical sites, and beautiful landscapes. Improved air connectivity, therefore, will enhance tourism, which is a vital sector for many African economies.However, the continent also faces several challenges that need to be addressed to fully realise these opportunities.Many African countries lack adequate aviation infrastructure, including modern airports, efficient air traffic control systems, and maintenance facilities.Safety and security are also critical concerns in the African aviation industry. Ensuring compliance with international safety standards and improving security measures are essential for gaining passenger trust.Although Africa’s airlines are expected to earn a collective net profit in 2024 for the second year in a row, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) says the expected profit falls well below the global average.According to the global trade body of airlines, African airlines are set to achieve $100mn net post-tax profit this year, which translates into profit per passenger of only 90 US cents per passenger – well below the $6.14 of the sector globally.Profit margins also sit lower than the global net profit margin of 3.1%, at 0.6% of revenue.“The fact that Africa’s airlines are expected to earn a collective net profit in 2024 for the second year in a row is a hard-won result for the sector after the turbulence of Covid-19 pandemic,” IATA said in a recent report.Strong passenger growth is a boon across the region though, as revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) growth is forecasted at 8.5%. Load factor is also expected to reach 61.9%, slightly ahead of the 59.8% breakeven load factor for African Airlines.“The demand to travel is there. To meet it, the African airline sector needs to overcome many challenges, not least of which are infrastructure deficiencies, high costs, onerous taxation, and the failure to broadly implement a continent-wide multilateral traffic rights regime,” noted Kamil Alawadhi, IATA’s regional vice president (Africa and the Middle East).“The challenges facing African aviation are significant, but they are not insurmountable. IATA’s Focus Africa initiative is by no means a panacea, but it does lay out a framework to build a stronger aviation sector that will provide even better support to economic growth and social development.”Focus Africa aims to address key challenges and opportunities within the continent's aviation sector, emphasising six priority areas: Safety, infrastructure, connectivity, finance and distribution, sustainability, and future skills.On safety, Africa as a continent had no jet hull losses for the second year in a row and the 31 IOSA registered carriers continue to outperform non-IOSA registered carriers both on the continent and globally.Regarding connectivity, the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) seeks to liberalise civil aviation by removing limits on traffic rights for African airlines. It also helps the continent drive economic growth, but few states have implemented it.Non-compliance by African governments to bilateral air service agreements (BASAs) is another obstacle to achieving seamless regional connectivity and growth and IATA says that to develop economy-boosting intra-Africa connectivity “Africa’s governments must back SAATM with actions.”The amount of blocked funds in African countries in June this year stood at $880mn, just over 52% of the $1.68bn in blocked funds globally.IATA says this is an improvement after Nigeria cleared 98% of the total funds blocked, which sat at $831mn.The association has called on African governments to take advantage of its strong aviation sector as it seeks to revive economic and social development benefits across the continent.The African aviation industry has immense potential for growth, driven by economic expansion, increasing demand for air travel, and opportunities for tourism and trade.However, addressing the challenges of infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, operating costs, safety, connectivity, skilled workforce, and financing is essential to unlock this potential.By tackling these issues, the African aviation sector can become a key driver of economic development and integration on the continent.Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn

The body of Burundi’s former president Pierre Buyoya (pictured) was repatriated to his home country on Tuesday, more than three years after he was buried thousands of kilometres away in Mali, AFP reported from Nairobi.Buyoya, who was credited with helping push democracy in the small African nation but accused of involvement in his successor’s assassination, died in Paris in December 2020 after contracting Covid-19. Later that month Buyoya, who died aged 71, was interred in the Malian capital Bamako, his base for eight years as the African Union’s special envoy to Mali and the Sahel.At the time, a senior Burundian government official had said Buyoya had the right to be buried in his home country but would not be given the honours afforded to a former head of state because of the sentence against him.A source at the airport in Burundi’s main city Bujumbura said the plane carrying his remains touched down early on Tuesday afternoon. “In order to respect the last wishes of the deceased, the family has requested and obtained from the Burundian authorities permission to repatriate and rebury his remains in his native country,” the Buyoya’s family said in a statement sent to AFP on Monday.

Republican former US president Donald Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigration and restrict legal immigration if elected to a second four-year term on November 5.Here are some of the policies under consideration, according to Trump, his campaign and news reports:Border enforcementTrump has said he would restore his 2019 “remain in Mexico” programme, which forced non-Mexican asylum-seekers attempting to enter the United States at the southern border to wait in Mexico for the resolution of their cases. The programme was terminated by President Joe Biden, a Democrat seeking a second White House term. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, pledging more humane and orderly immigration policies, but has struggled with record levels of migrants caught crossing the US-Mexico border illegally.Trump also would reinstate the Covid-19-era Title 42 policy, which allowed US border authorities to quickly expel migrants back to Mexico without the chance to claim asylum, he told Time magazine in an interview.He would use record border crossings and trafficking of fentanyl and children as reasons for the emergency moves, Time reported, citing comments from advisers.Trump has said he will seek to detain all migrants caught crossing the border illegally or violating other immigration laws, ending what he calls “catch and release.”Trump focused on building a wall on the US-Mexico border during his first term and has pledged to close gaps in the border wall if re-elected. His administration built 450 miles of barriers across the 1,954-mile (border, but much of that replaced existing structures. Trump criticised a new Biden asylum ban rolled out in June and pledged to reverse it during a campaign event in Arizona. Trump said the measure would not adequately secure the border, even though it mirrored Trump-era policies to deter would-be migrants. Trump also said at the campaign event that he would consider using tariffs to pressure China and other nations to stop migrants from their countries from coming to the US-Mexico border.Mass deportationsTrump has pledged to launch the largest deportation effort in US history, focusing on criminals but aiming to send millions back to their home countries.Trump told Time he did not rule out building new migrant detention camps but “there wouldn’t be that much of a need for them” because migrants would be rapidly removed.Trump would rely on the National Guard, if needed, to arrest and deport immigrants in the US illegally, he said. When questioned, he also said he would be willing to consider using federal troops if necessary, a step likely to be challenged in the courts.Trump has also vowed to take aggressive new steps to deport immigrants with criminal records and suspected gang members by using the little-known 1789 Alien Enemies Act.Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s first-term immigration agenda, said in an interview last year with a right-wing podcast that National Guard troops from co-operative states could potentially be deployed to what he characterised as “unfriendly” states to assist with deportations, which could trigger legal battles.Biden in 2023 outpaced Trump deportation totals for any single year and is on pace for even more this year.Travel bans Trump has said he would implement travel bans on people from certain countries or with certain ideologies, expanding on a policy upheld by the Supreme Court in 2018. Trump previewed some parts of the world that could be subjected to a renewed travel ban in an October 2023 speech, pledging to restrict people from the Gaza Strip, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen and “anywhere else that threatens our security.”During the speech, Trump focused on the conflict in Gaza, saying he would bar the entry of immigrants who support the group Hamas and send deportation officers to pro-Hamas protests.Trump said last June he would seek to block communists, Marxists and socialists from entering the United States.Legal immigrationTrump said last year that he would seek to end automatic citizenship for children born in the US to immigrants living in the country illegally, an idea he flirted with as president. Such an action would run against the long-running interpretation of an amendment to the US Constitution and would likely trigger legal challenges. During his first term, Trump greatly reduced the number of refugees allowed into the US and has criticised Biden’s decision to increase admissions. He would again suspend the resettlement programme if re-elected, the New York Times reported in November 2023. Trump has said he would push for a “a merit-based immigration system that protects American labour and promotes American values.”In his first term, he took steps to tighten access to some visa programmes, including a suspension of many work visas during the Covid pandemic. The Trump campaign criticised a Biden programme announced in June that will allow immigrants in the US illegally to obtain permanent residence if they are married to a US citizen and have lived in the US for at least a decade.Trump said on a podcast last month that he backed giving green cards to foreign students who graduate from US colleges or junior colleges but Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt later said the proposal “would only apply to the most thoroughly vetted college graduates who would never undercut American wages or workers.”Trump has vowed to end Biden “parole” programmes that have allowed hundreds of thousands of migrants with US sponsors to enter the US and obtain work permits, including Ukrainians and Afghans. He has called Biden’s programmes an “outrageous abuse of parole authority.”He would seek to roll back Temporary Protected Status designations, the New York Times reported, targeting another humanitarian programme that offers deportation relief and work permits to hundreds of thousands. Trump tried to phase out most Temporary Protected Status enrolment during his first term, but was slowed by legal challenges. A federal appeals court in September 2020 allowed him to proceed with the wind-down, but Biden reversed that and expanded the programme after taking office.Family separationIn a town hall with CNN last year, Trump declined to rule out resuming his contentious “zero tolerance” policy that led thousands of migrant children and parents to be separated at the US-Mexico border in 2018. He defended the separations again in November, telling Spanish-language news outlet Univision that “it stopped people from coming by the hundreds of thousands.”While Trump has refused to rule out reinstating a family separation policy, key allies who could potentially join a second-term administration are wary, Reuters reported. The Biden administration last October announced a settlement agreement with separated families that would offer them temporary legal status and other benefits while barring similar separations for at least eight years.DACATrump tried to end a programme that grants deportation relief and work permits to “Dreamer” immigrants brought to the US illegally as children, but the termination was rebuffed by the Supreme Court in June 2020. Following the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration said it would not accept any new applications to the programme, known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, and would explore whether it could again attempt to end it.Trump plans to try to end DACA if elected, the New York Times reported. — Reuters

Tadej Pogacar extended his overall lead at the Tour de France to more than three minutes yesterday with a convincing second-straight stage win in the Pyrenees.The Slovenian dropped the last of his rivals with five kilometres to go after five more Pyrenean peaks.A valiant Jonas Vingegaard could only finish 1 minute and 8 seconds adrift in second, with Remco Evenepoel in third at 2min 51sec on the day.As Pogacar crossed the line at the magnificent Plateau de Beille deep in the Pyrenees, resplendent in his yellow outfit, he had racked up a second straight iconic mountaintop triumph and a 14th Tour de France stage win aged just 25.The overall leader expressed surprise at Vingegaard and his team.“Jonas did most of the work,” Pogacar said after Visma hogged the front of the peloton most of the day.“With today being the 14th of July you might have expected a French win, but Visma went at it very strong.”“I wasn’t sure myself I’d be able to keep up the pace, but this year I’ve adopted a different approach and it seems to be working,” said Pogacar, munching on a candy bar.The Team UAE leader’s audacious bid for a Tour de France and Giro d’Italia double in the same season seemed closer after a third stage win on this year’s Tour lifted him comfortably clear.The last man to win such a double was Marco Pantani in 1998. On his way to his French triumph, the Italian also won a stage ended on the Plateau de Beille.Pogacar yesterday ascended the mountain over four minutes faster than Pantani.“That’s a very good sign,” Pogacar’s team director Mauro Gianetti said.There are two murderous mountain slogs to go in the Alps, where the weather will likely be much hotter, which Pogacar dislikes.The final-day lottery is a fearsome 34km individual time trial on the corniche between Monaco and Nice.For now, the sun shines on the Slovenian as he leads the two-time defending champion Vingegaard by 3 minutes 9 seconds with the young Belgian Remco Evenepoel on his first Tour de France third at 5min 19sec.Evenepoel also looked happy with his day’s work after he arrived for his debut Tour de France stating he was targeting the best young rider’s jersey, which he looks good for now.“I felt it was a mistake to try and follow them when they went. It was a race between them two,” he said. “I kept going at my steady rhythm. it was a good weekend for us.”Evenepoel is third overall, five minutes clear of Mikel Landa, and leads the young rider category by six minutes from Carlos Rodriguez.Vingegaard and Evenepoel were both involved in a bone-breaking crash in March, and it remains to be seen how their stamina stands up in the third week.After today’s rest day the race rushes back to the Alps, where tradition holds that the Tour is won.Pogacar agreed with that yesterday.“Only when I cross the finish line will I believe I have won,” said the 2020 and 2021 champion.The weekend crowds were well-behaved yesterday. A roadside spectator who threw crisps in the faces of Pogacar and Vingegaard on Saturday was charged with violent behaviour yesterday morning, after spending a night in the cells to sober up.The Tour de France also stepped up protective measures to “limit health risks” with the reintroduction of the dreaded face masks due to a resurgence of Covid-19.Today is a rest day.“We go into Monday with a big smile,” said Pogacar.The fans watching roadside or in armchairs also likely left with a smile.

"In the last few years, Turkiye has survived many challenging times including July 15 coup attempt, Covid-19 pandemic and the biggest earthquake disaster in the last century that struck 11 cities in southern Turkiye claiming around 60,000 lives. We are grateful to Qatar for its help to ease the sufferings of earthquake victims," said Turkish ambassador to Qatar Dr Mustafa Goksu.Marking the 8th anniversary of the July 15 failed coup attempt, the ambassador reiterated the gratefulness of the people and government of Turkiye to Qatar and its wise leadership for the timely support and solidarity."We will never forget the solidarity of the brothers in Qatar for our country. His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani was the first leader to call President Erdogan and show support and HE Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was one of the first foreign officials to visit Turkiye in the aftermath of the coup attempt," he said.He pointed out that "in the eight years since the coup attempt, Turkiye has made great progress in various sectors. As a result of Turkiye’s deepening and widening comprehensive policies, Turkiye has spawned the 5th largest diplomatic network globally with 261 missions (146 embassies, 99 consulates general, 13 permanent representations and other offices). Despite the negative repercussions of the July 15 coup attempt along with Covid-19 and the earthquake disaster, Turkish economy continues to grow and is among the 20 largest economies in the world. Besides, international institutions have raised its expectations for the growth rate in Turkiye in 2024."Regarding Turkiye's diplomatic stand on the issue of the ongoing war in Gaza, he noted that "Turkiye has been working very closely with the countries in the region, especially with Qatar, on the Gaza issue, as in all other regional issues. We are closely following Qatar's efforts to reach a ceasefire and maintain the flow of humanitarian aid in Gaza and appreciate its successful mediation efforts. We also highly appreciate the notable mediation role of the State of Qatar under the leadership of His Highness the Amir of Qatar as well as efforts to secure a ceasefire, as well as providing substantial financial and humanitarian aid for those in dire need in Gaza."He stressed the strength and bright prospects of the Turkish economy in various areas, pointing out that exports have broken the record, reaching $260bn in 2023. In addition, Turkiye witnessed an increase of tourists from all parts of the world, as it was and will remain one of the favourite destinations and has hosted nearly 57mn tourists in 2023."The ambassador affirmed the strong deep Qatari-Turkish friendship and continued co-operation in all fields for the best of the two countries and their peoples. Page 10

Qatar Development Bank (QDB) has announced the extension of the deadline for the transfer of outstanding credit facilities to its National Response Guarantee Programme (NRGP) portfolio until September 30, 2024.The move is aimed at ensuring that all customers have the opportunity to apply for the programme, which was designed to refinance outstanding credit facilities granted to customers by partner banks through the NRGP.The bank has received 1,350 transfer requests since the programme’s launch in October 2023. The programme allows existing NRGP beneficiaries to apply to transfer their outstanding credit facilities from partner banks to the QDB portfolio according to newly outlined, streamlined conditions. All transferred facilities will be granted a new repayment period of up to five years, including a one-year grace period.The NRGP was launched under exceptional circumstances in 2020 to provide the necessary support to enable entrepreneurs in Qatar to overcome emerging challenges. Today, QDB pursues this mission and works on new initiatives to facilitate the growth and development of businesses so that they can effectively contribute to a prosperous Qatari economy.QDB launched the NRGP portfolio in 2020 in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak to support the private sector by providing the necessary financial and economic assistance.The programme allocated 100% guarantees for local banks through QDB, under the guidance of the Qatari government, to enable private companies to meet short-term dues, including salaries and rent. Up to 4,200 companies benefited from the programme, with the total value of guarantees issued reaching QR3.6bn.To learn more on how to apply for the programme to transfer outstanding credit facilities, please contact the National Guarantees Programme hotline 4430-0000 followed by extension number (1) or visit https://www.qdb.qa

The strategically convenient location of the Middle East, combined with heavy investment and smart strategic choices, results in the region’s airlines increasing their market shareThe rise of Middle East-based airlines is a significant development in the global economy. Expansion is not restricted to the best known carriers such as Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates. Turkish Airlines and Istanbul-based Pegasus Airlines carried 115mn passengers in 2023, up 10% on 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, helped by modernisation and expansion of Turkish airports.Demand for air travel fell precipitously during the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in 2020, when passenger numbers fell to 1.8bn, from 4.5bn the year before. Revenues per passenger kilometre (RPK), a commonly used industry metric, fell by 66%. Only this year has traffic recovered to levels close to pre-pandemic levels.Barring a similar unexpected disruption, however, demand is projected to grow. While the pandemic hit revenues of all airlines severely, some survived better than others, and were able to hire staff from bankrupt competitors and purchase valuable landing slots during the downturn. So the industry, on aggregate at least, recovered swiftly.Much of the rising demand for air travel is fuelled by the rising middle class within Asia, the Middle East and Africa. People have a natural desire to travel, and the combination of rising incomes and affordable air travel makes this possible for a rising proportion of the world’s population. Social media has an influence, by multiplying the means by which people can gain a glimpse of attractive tourist destinations.In total, the Middle East is adding significantly to airport capacity, projected to be able to handle 1.1bn passengers by 2040, more than double the level of 2019, which was 405mn. For example, Dubai is investing $35bn in a major airport expansion, and its home base carrier Emirates is ordering 90 Boeing 777s, while flydubai is ordering 30 Boeing 787s. Hamad International Airport is undergoing a major expansion; the King Abdelaziz Airport in Saudi Arabia is adding a new terminal, while the Hajj and Umrah terminal at Jeddah will handle 15mn passengers a year. Tourism, much of it religious pilgrimage, is the second most important industry in Saudi Arabia after oil. A major airport is being planned for Neom. There are plans for airport expansion also in Oman, Lebanon and Bahrain.Some of these expansions are on a scale that other regions would find difficult to match. A geographical advantage that desert nations possess, especially compared with densely populated Western Europe, is space to construct airports with four, five or six parallel runways.Another strategic advantage is being located between Africa, Europe and Asia, such that a high proportion of the world’s population lies within just a few hours’ flight. Gulf states have successfully marketed themselves as short-stay tourism destinations for travellers breaking their journey between Asia and the west.In addition to airlines from Turkiye and the Gulf, Air India has launched a major investment programme since privatisation and ownership by Tata in 2022. Last year it confirmed a colossal investment of $34bn in some 450 new aircraft, split roughly evenly between Boeing and Airbus. Air travel by the Indian population is growing rapidly, both domestically and internationally.Middle Eastern airlines typically enjoy a lower cost base compared with European airlines. Labour costs are lower, and the European Union has stricter environmental laws, for example requiring airlines to begin using fuel with lower emissions, that is more expensive. At an industry conference in March, leaders of Lufthansa and KLM-Air France acknowledged that they could not compete with Asian airlines for some long-distance routes. Lufthansa, for example, used to have direct flights to 14 destinations in southeast Asia, but this is reduced to just two, Bangkok and Singapore.As aviation continues its recovery from the pandemic – which was its biggest peace-time disruption – a different industry, distinctly more Middle Eastern and Asian, is emerging.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading disease experts. Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 US states signals a change that could bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have been found in other mammals, from alpacas to house cats.“It almost seems like a pandemic unfolding in slow motion,” said Scott Hensley, a professor of microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania. “Right now, the threat is pretty low...but that could change in a heartbeat.”The earlier the warning of a jump to humans, the sooner global health officials can take steps to protect people by launching vaccine development, wide-scale testing and containment measures. Federal surveillance of US dairy cows is currently limited to testing herds before they cross state lines. State testing efforts are inconsistent, while testing of people exposed to sick cattle is scant, government health officials and pandemic flu experts told Reuters.“You need to know which are the positive farms, how many of the cows are positive, how well the virus spreads, how long do these cows remain infectious, the exact transmission route,” said Dutch flu virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. Dr Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said surveillance for humans is “very, very limited.”Marrazzo described the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s human flu surveillance network as “really a passive reporting, passive presentation mechanism.” The US Department of Agriculture is more proactive in testing cows, but does not make public which farms are affected, she said.Several experts said differing approaches from animal and human health agencies could hamper a quicker response.“If you were designing the system from scratch, you would have one agency,” said Gigi Gronvall, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “This is not the only example where we have environmental or animal problems that cause human problems.”A USDA spokesperson said the agency is working “around the clock” with CDC and other partners in a “whole-of-government response,” adding that ongoing research shows “America’s food supply remains safe, sick cows generally recover after a few weeks, and the risk to human health remains low.”The CDC in a statement said it, “USDA, and state and local health departments across the country have been preparing for the emergence of a novel influenza virus for nearly 2 decades and continually monitor for even the smallest changes in the virus.”Some pandemics, including Covid-19, arrive with little warning. In the last flu pandemic, caused by H1N1 in 2009, the virus and its predecessors had first spread among animals for several years, Hensley said, but more surveillance would have helped health authorities prepare.Three people in the US have tested positive for H5N1 avian flu since late March after contact with cows, experiencing mild symptoms. One person in Mexico was infected with a separate H5 strain not previously seen in humans, and with no known exposure to animals. Other cases were reported in India, China and Australia, caused by different strains.The World Health Organisation says H5N1’s risk to humans is low because there is no evidence of human transmission. Some tools are available if that changes, including limited amounts of existing H5N1 vaccine and antiviral medications like Tamiflu.There are mechanisms to launch larger-scale production of tests, treatments and vaccines, if needed, said the UN agency’s head of flu, Wenqing Zhang.Other experts said there is sufficient concern to start preparing for potential spread in humans, although triggers for taking action differ depending on the role played in the response, said Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). His organisation acted early on funding Covid vaccine development, and is now in talks with research partners about H5N1.CEPI aims to create a library of prototype vaccines for pathogens with pandemic potential. This would help drugmakers initiate large-scale production and distribute shots where necessary within 100 days of an outbreak.Some countries are taking steps to protect people against H5N1. The United States and Europe are securing doses of “pre-pandemic” flu vaccine that could be used for high-risk groups, including farm or lab workers. Finland is expected to become the first country to inoculate fur and poultry farm workers, as well as animal health response workers.Expanding vaccine access is also complex, said the WHO’s Zhang. Manufacturers of potential pandemic flu vaccines make seasonal flu shots and cannot produce both at once, she said.Since most flu vaccines are made using virus grown in eggs, it could take up to six months to produce pandemic shots. The US is in talks with Moderna to use their faster mRNA technology for pandemic flu shots.The experts all acknowledged a need to balance acting quickly to avert a threat versus overreacting.“We want to sound a note of caution,” said Wendy Barclay, a virologist at Imperial College London who also advises the UK Health Security Agency on avian flu, “without saying the world is about to end.” — ReutersPOINTS TO PONDER• Concerns over surveillance gaps: Scientists are worried that current gaps in surveillance for bird flu, particularly in migratory birds and dairy herds in the US, may prevent timely detection of the virus potentially becoming transmissible between humans.• Need for improved co-ordination and response: Differing approaches between animal and human health agencies, inconsistent state testing efforts, and limited human surveillance are seen as obstacles to a more effective and quicker response to the potential threat.• Preparatory measures and vaccine development: There is a call for increased preparation, including the development of prototype vaccines, securing “pre-pandemic” flu vaccine doses for high-risk groups, and considering faster mRNA technology for pandemic flu shots. Some countries are already taking steps to protect people against H5N1.

Tadej Pogacar extended his overall lead on the Tour de France when he won stage 14 in the Pyrenees on Saturday. His arch rival Jonas Vingegaard came second at 39sec while Remco Evenepoel was third at 1min 10sec.Ahead of another monster run in the Pyrenees today, Pogacar extended his lead to 1min 57sec over Vingegaard as Evenepoel dropped to third at 2min 22sec.With bonus seconds for the win, his 13th Tour de France stage victory, Pogacar extended his lead by 43sec. He punched the air in triumph at the line.“The plan was to come to the final and make the sprint hard, maybe take some seconds and a stage win. But in the end this it’s much better,” he said at the line.“I’m super, super happy to get this,” he said.Pogacar’s team UAE waited until the third and final climb of the day before sending Adam Yates on an attack seven kilometres from the line on the 11km ascent to the Pla d’Adet.“It’s so noisy on the climb we had to scream at each other, I was telling him to attack,” Pogacar said.Yates admitted he had been shocked by the instructions.“I thought maybe he could go for the win, but it didn’t quite work,” said Pogacar.The English rider was waiting to help after Pogacar unleashed his own ferocious acceleration.The Slovenian’s two podium rivals had followed, but were either unwilling or unable to match the pace.Over the final section of a climb, packed on either side by raucous fans, 2020 and 2021 champion Pogacar kept up his pace all the way to the line after dropping Yates. “I’m much better than last year, handling pressure and emotions,” Pogacar said.“I’m getting more and more comfortable. I have to enjoy this while it lasts.”Wearing a mask in the mixed zone, Evenepoel seemed relaxed and happy too. “I tried to keep up as long as possible but he’s wild,” said the Belgian, who thanked his team members by name for their support.Perhaps Pogacar heard him as the 25-year-old also named each and every one of his teammates too.Saturday’s stage first took the peloton up the feared Col du Tourmalet with tens of thousands of fans partying all day.Before the peloton arrived, holidaying cyclists rode up the 19km climb at an average 7.5 gradient to 2,115m altitude, many pushing their bikes or using electric assistance.Pidcock drops outWhen the peloton set off from Pau, the gateway to the Pyrenees, only 158 riders of the original 176 remained.Cross-discipline maverick Tom Pidcock was absent, the latest to pull out with suspected Covid.He is due to protect his mountain bike Olympic title in just three weeks.The race zipped through pilgrim site Lourdes, one of the most visited cities in France due to it’s grotto and fountain.Sunday’s 15th stage falls on July 14 and should provide a show for the roadside and armchair fans alike.Warren Barguil is the last Frenchman to provide a win on the national holiday back in 2017.The wait is unlikely to end, but Romain Bardet, in his retirement year, will likely reach beyond himself trying.Instead the five fearsome climbs should provide a further battleground for Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects that the European Central Bank will implement two additional interest rate cuts, by 25 basis points, during the current year, as it continues to closely monitor price developments and labor market activity.QNB noted that despite the beginning of the easing cycle, there is still significant uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts going further, as well as what level will be the neutral rate, at which the nominal policy rate should stabilize.The report said that, every summer, the European Central Bank (ECB) organizes a sought-after monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal. The event is one of the most important central banking conferences in the world, bringing together top economists, bankers, market participants, academics and policy makers to discuss relevant macro issues. It added that the forum has garnered significant attention due to the impactful speeches delivered by senior policymakers, rivalling the Jackson Hole conference in its appeal to investors. This years meeting was particularly relevant, as the ECB had just starteda new phase of its monetary policy cycle last month, when policy rates were cut for the first time in five years. This came after a holding period of ninemonths, which followed the most aggressive tightening in the history of the ECB, when rates were hiked by 425 basis points (bps) as a response to thepost-pandemic inflationary shock.The weekly note highlighted the introductory speech of the Sintra forum from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which expressed what is behind the hesitation to take a more aggressive path towards a faster monetary policy easing, saying that: "Now, we are still facing several uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially in terms of how the nexus of profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply-side shocks. And it will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above-target inflation have passed.QNB's report sees that, with inflation still running at 2.5% y/y in June, above the 2% target of the ECB but much below the recent peak from October 2022, there is comfort for the beginning of an easing cycle but still no consensus for a more "dovish" stance, which would translate to faster rate cuts.The note said that the insights shared during the meeting by senior ECB officials pointed to a "rather unusual economic cycle," which increases uncertainty and requires a more nimble, data dependent approach to monetary policy.The weekly report also noted that despite five straight quarters of stagnation since late 2022, the Euro area economy has so far avoided a sharper downturn. This is an unusual outcome given the magnitude of the supply shocks that had to be tamed, such as the Covid pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War. QNB added that these events had major implications, such as input shortages, a regional energy crisis and the de-anchoring of fiscal policies, which caused wider budget deficits and higher government indebtedness. The ECB had to then respond strongly, taking policy rates to restrictive levels in order to re anchor inflation expectations."In previous periods, such negative headwinds from external shocks and central bank policy would have produced a more pronounced recession. This time, however, seems to be different. A mix of labor shortages, fiscal expansion and nominal earnings growth contributed to support exceptionally benignlabor markets, despite the stagnant economy. In fact, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows at the same time that wages are still growing at more than4% per year," the report added.QNB's report concluded that the lack of more severe weakness in labor markets prevents the ECB from embarking on a firmer policy easing stance.

Britain's economy grew more quickly than expected in May, providing some momentum for the new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer but adding to doubts about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month, reports Reuters.Economic output increased by 0.4% in May, after zero growth in April, the Office for National Statistics said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.2% monthly increase.The strength of the upturn could dissuade the BoE from beginning to cut interest rates as soon as August 1, its next scheduled monetary policy announcement date. Three policymakers this week emphasised the strength of domestic price pressures.The chance of a rate cut in three weeks' time fell below 50% on the futures markets from just above 50% on Wednesday.May saw a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services, manufacturing and construction industries all growing and the latter up by 1.9% on the month, driven by house-building.The figures represented an early boost for the new Labour administration, which has set itself the aim of achieving the fastest growth among the Group of Seven advanced economies on a sustained basis."The improving economic outlook suggests the government may benefit from the economic recovery being stronger than most forecasters anticipate," Ashley Webb, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics, said.Britain's economy appears to have snapped out of its low-growth rut, at least for now. Output has grown by 1.5% since the turn of the year, marking its best five months since early 2017, excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.Goldman Sachs on Thursday nudged up its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2% from 1.1%.Still, the longer-run picture remains weak, with the economy only 2.7% larger than its pre-pandemic level of late 2019.According to the latest quarterly data, only Germany has fared worse since the pandemic.Over the three months to May, the economy expanded by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.