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Germany’s economy is slowing more sharply than in the rest of Europe, and may well be in recession. Can it recover anytime soon?The factors behind Germany’s under-performance are not difficult to discern. As in much of the developed world, productivity growth has been sluggish for some time. Moreover, since the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation – including a rise in energy prices – has taken a toll on growth. The Ukraine war compounded these headwinds, not least by forcing Europe to replace Russian fossil fuels with more expensive substitutes. Higher energy prices hit Germany’s heavily industrial economy particularly hard.Germany is also facing declining demand for its exports, owing to sluggish global growth, weakness in key markets (especially China), and rising foreign competition in autos and advanced industrial machinery. But exports are vital to Germany’s economic model: the country has long run trade (and current account) surpluses, in order to offset insufficient domestic aggregate demand.Then there are the economy’s labour shortages. As is true of most developed countries, as well as China, Germany’s population is ageing. At 1.35 births per woman, fertility is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Add to that increasing longevity, and Germany’s dependency ratio – the proportion of dependents (old and young) to the working-age population – is on the rise, straining social security and healthcare systems. Already, the labour force has levelled off at around 44mn, and unless something substantial changes – say, workforce participation or net migration increases significantly – it will begin to shrink within the coming decade.The last time Germany faced such serious economic challenges, in the late 1990s, the government, in collaboration with industry and labour, carried out far-reaching reforms. This effort included a crucial structural shift: German industrial sectors moved to occupy the high-valued-added segments of supply chains, with other segments moving to lower-cost countries, including the emerging post-communist economies in Central and Eastern Europe. By 2006, Germany was outperforming other large European economies, and it continued to do so until 2017.Replicating this success today would require Germany to move to the forefront of the digital transformation. Fortunately, Germany does not lack talent, entrepreneurial activity, or innovative capacity. BioNTech, headquartered in Mainz, is a leading developer of vaccines and cancer treatments, with a growing global footprint. Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg boast entrepreneurial ecosystems and innovation hubs. Forty-six unicorns in Germany – mostly operating in digital-technology-enabled sectors – have received funding from domestic and international venture-capital and private-equity firms.But technological advances happen faster in very large, integrated markets, because the returns on costly upfront investments in innovation are higher when the total addressable market is bigger. This means that progress in Germany will depend significantly on European policy.Some might argue that the main problem here is that the world economy is becoming more fragmented, more complicated, and less open – perhaps permanently. And this does create serious challenges, especially for an export-oriented industrial economy like Germany.But an even bigger obstacle to digitally driven structural change in the economy, especially in Germany, is the growing digital-technology gap between the European Union and the other two global economic powerhouses, the United States and China. It might be tempting to downplay the importance of this gap, because divergences can appear in any sector over time and across countries. But digital technologies do not form just one sector; they are essential to the technological and structural transformation of every economic sector, including industrial manufacturing.In his September 2024 report on European competitiveness, Mario Draghi, a former head of the European Central Bank and prime minister of Italy, examined the main causes of the EU’s tech deficit. Perhaps inconveniently for Germany, some of them – for example, a dearth of basic research in science and technology – can be addressed only at the EU level, as they require centralised funding and administration. Similarly, services-sector and capital-market integration – vital to enable Europe’s innovators to reap the full benefits of its large economy – will require coordinated action across countries.EU-level regulatory approaches might also need to be reconsidered. As it stands, the mega-platforms that support the largest cloud-computing systems – which generate spin-offs, fund basic research (especially in quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and AI applications in science), and support AI development – are located mostly in the US and China.To be sure, major players – Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google – have established large data centres in Europe, including Germany, to serve local markets, leverage Europe’s deep pools of scientific talent, and comply with EU data-protection rules and AI regulations. But there are no comparable home-grown entities. This has contributed to a regulatory and policy bias toward risk mitigation and data security, with less attention being paid to leveraging tech’s upside potential and creating an enabling environment for digital structural transformation.A final imperative for Europe – and particularly for Germany – is progress on the digital transformation of industrial sectors, including automobiles, where China’s advances in electric-vehicle batteries and solar energy represent a huge competitive threat. This will require incumbent firms to overcome organisational inertia and let go of old mindsets and models. More important, it will require software engineering on a massive scale. But Europe does not currently have enough qualified people for these jobs. While an AI-fuelled surge in software-engineering productivity might help to ease this bottleneck, large amounts of engineering talent will still be essential. Changes to immigration policy can help here.But there is cause for cautious optimism. The Chinese startup DeepSeek has just stunned the AI world by demonstrating that a cutting-edge large language model can be trained more cheaply, and with less computing power, than previously thought. This discovery potentially reduces the EU’s deficit in the computing infrastructure required to support advanced AI development, thus creating an opportunity for Germany, and Europe more broadly, to close the gap with the world’s current tech leaders. But success will be possible only if EU leaders, national governments, and industry work together to mobilise the required human capital and deliver the necessary investment, not least in digital infrastructure. — Project Syndicate Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Emeritus Professor of Economics and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and a co-author (with Mohamed A El-Erian, Gordon Brown, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World.

India’s annual budget announcement was a bigger deal than usual this year: As the first full budget of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, it will set the tone for how the world’s fifth-largest economy confronts slowing growth and sagging markets.But the year’s top economic policy event opted mainly for short-term economic relief through middle-class tax cuts, while passing up a chance to go big on reforms needed to reignite rapid growth – once the envy of the world at more than 8%.The budget also scaled back the government’s emphasis on capital spending and infrastructure, another key driver for India’s growth ambitions since the pandemic.Without a strategy to regain high growth rates and assure jobs for India’s young population, the budget disappointed analysts and markets, alarmed in recent months by weak earnings growth and an exodus of foreign investors.“India is aspiring for 8% growth but we don’t have a path to 8% – a growth strategy is not there,” said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.The government has forecast India’s GDP growth will slip to a four-year low of 6.4% in the current financial year to March 31 and stay close to that level next year as well, compared with 8.2% in 2023-24.While the latest tax cuts may help urban consumers, who took some steam out of the economy as weak wage growth and high living costs curtailed their spending habits, economists see deeper problems that need to be addressed.“Eight percent will require far deeper interventions in agricultural markets, human capital and ease of doing business,” said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ Research.Modi, who returned to power in July of last year with a weaker-than-expected mandate, has turned to appeasing politically important constituencies in the months since the election, analysts said. His party has reversed agricultural trade policies to favour farmers, offered cash handouts to women and, now, cut taxes for the middle class.Analysts noted that this is not the first time, however, that Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to push economic reforms, which also got brushed aside in his previous two terms when the party had won more decisively and had greater political capital.“In 2019, the BJP got more than 300 seats and had a window (for reforms),” said Amit Ranjan, research fellow at Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore.“But the government gave in to the needs of electoral politics as the government knows reforms do not immediately benefit the large section of voters.”In 2015, Modi let lapse an executive order making it easier for businesses to buy land, after failing to win support from opposition parties in the parliament. And in 2020, both houses of parliament approved new labour codes, but they have yet to be implemented across all states.Plans for large-scale privatisations of state-owned enterprises, aiming to reinvigorate them by reducing government involvement, have also faltered, with the government now opting to put fresh funds into ailing state firms.The case for reforms, however, has not come just from analysts and economists, but from government leaders as well.On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser, V Anantha Nageswaran, made a pitch for rapidly easing rules covering land, labour and factories, among other areas, arguing that government should “get out of the way” as one way to push up growth.“Business as usual carries a high risk of economic growth stagnation, if not economic stagnation,” Nageswaran said in a report presented a day ahead of the budget. The tax cuts’ Rs1tn ($11.56bn) price tag also reduced the government’s leeway to further ramp up spending on infrastructure. The budget includes Rs11.2tn for capital expenditure in 2025-26, close to the level of spending planned for the current year, although actual outlays fell short of that due to delays linked to national and state elections.“We think that capital expenditure and infrastructure development will provide a longer-term, longer-lasting boost to growth than things like tax measures,” said Christian de Guzman, senior vice-president and lead sovereign analyst for India at Moody’s Ratings.Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the government has raised capital expenditure sharply in the hope of fashioning an investment-led recovery but the strategy is yet to pay off, with job creation and wage growth remaining weak.

Food and nutrition insecurity remain pressing global challenges. Despite progress in some areas, millions of people around the world still struggle to access sufficient, safe, and nutritious food.Many countries continue to grapple with recurring crises fuelled by climate change, high food prices, and conflict, all of which undermine access to the healthy, nutritious food that people need to thrive.It is five years since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and five years away from the 2030 deadline for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by all countries - developed and developing - in a global partnership.They recognise that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth – all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forestsMonitoring food and nutrition security is a notoriously challenging task and one that often suffers from major data gaps, according to some experts at the World Bank who recently highlighted five alarming statistics that underscore the urgency of the global food and nutrition security situation and discuss how data innovations are pivotal in combating global hunger.Last year’s ‘State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World’ report found that up to 733mn people globally suffered from malnutrition in 2023, an increase of 152mn since 2019.This sharp rise underscores the escalating crisis of hunger and food insecurity worldwide.The same report concluded that rising food prices and income inequality have led to 2.8bn people being unable to afford a healthy diet in 2022, contributing to what is termed as “hidden hunger.” Rising food prices disproportionately affect poorer households which spend a greater proportion of their incomes on food.World food prices have declined from their 2022 peaks, but price dynamics will remain a key determinant of food security in 2025. During the sharp price rises in 2022, World Bank estimations found that a mere 1% rise in global food prices pushes an additional 10 million people into extreme poverty.This underscores the vulnerability of low-income populations to even seemingly minor market fluctuations.Last year, researchers at the University of Oxford and London School of Economics concluded that market failures and inefficiencies contribute to $10tn in hidden costs each year within the global food system.These losses highlight the need for systemic changes to transform our food systems to be more efficient, equitable, and less wasteful so that we can sustainably feed people with nutritious food on a liveable planet.According to the UN’s State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023, over 735mn people face hunger globally.Urgent action, therefore, is needed to strengthen food systems, support sustainable agriculture, and ensure equitable food distribution.

Neymar announced on Friday he was returning to Brazilian club Santos, where he started his career, after ending his injury-plagued spell with Saudi Arabia’s Al Hilal.“I will sign a contract with Santos Futebol Clube,” Neymar wrote on social media in a post accompanied by images of his past with the Sao Paulo-based team, where football icon Pele spent most of his career.“My feelings for the club and fans have never changed.”Santos’ X account replied to Neymar’s post, saying: “Your home awaits you. Your people await you.”Neymar will be presented to fans in a ceremony at the club’s Estadio Urbano Caldeira, featuring concerts by several local music stars, today.The 32-year-old former Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain forward played just seven times for Al Hilal despite a reported salary of around $104mn a year.Neymar, Brazil’s all-time top scorer, joined Al Hilal in August 2023, following fellow superstars Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema to the Gulf.But two months after his arrival in Riyadh, he ruptured a cruciate ligament in his left knee while playing for Brazil in a 2026 World Cup qualifier, which kept him on the sidelines for a year.He then suffered a series of hamstring and knee injuries as he tried to return to action.The club’s coach Jorge Jesus said recently: “He can no longer play at the level we are used to. Things have become difficult for him, unfortunately.”Neymar’s return to Brazil is likely the last chance of his faltering career.Neymar has scored 79 goals in 128 matches for his country.Neymar had been courted by MLS teams in the United States but has chosen to return home with the goal of earning selection for the Brazil squad for the 2026 World Cup in Mexico, the United States and Canada.“Now I need to play again,” said Neymar. “And only a club like Santos can provide the love I need to prepare for the coming challenges of the next years.”He faces a huge challenge at Santos, who only returned to the elite division in 2024 after a year in the second tier.Neymar will face a busy schedule punctuated by long flights across Brazil, with the Sao Paulo State tournament, the Brazilian Cup and the national championship which begins at the end of March on the program. The presence of such a big name will attract huge interest from Santos fans, but Neymar’s best days are almost certainly behind him.At the start of his career he was cast as the heir to Pele. After scoring 136 goals in 225 appearances for Santos, he joined Barcelona in 2013, becoming the young star of a team that also featured Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, which swept to the Champions League title in 2015 by beating Juventus 3-1 in the final in Berlin.In 2014 his participation in the World Cup in Brazil was cut short by injury in the quarter-finals and Brazil crashed out after a humiliating 7-1 defeat by Germany in the semi-finals. Neymar gained some redemption in 2016 when he scored the winning penalty in a shootout as Brazil won the men’s football gold medal at the Rio Olympics.In 2017, Qatar-owned Paris Saint-Germain prised him away from Barcelona with what is still a world-record transfer fee of €220mn ($230mn).He won five Ligue 1 titles and he and prolific French forward Kylian Mbappe led PSG to the final of the Champions League in the Covid-blighted 2019-2020 season, but they lost to Bayern Munich.PSG reunited Neymar with Messi in the French capital, but the trio with Mbappe failed to gel as personal rivalries got in the way and he was pushed to the exit, and to Saudi Arabia, by the Parisian management in 2023.

Hope, experience, integrity and engaging with the youth of today were some of the messages the seven candidates bidding to become the next president of the International Olympic Committee delivered to their fellow members on Thursday.The seven are vying to convince a majority of the 100-plus members to elect them and succeed Thomas Bach as arguably the most powerful person in global sport, in a vote slated for March 20 in Costa Navarino, Greece.The candidates all have impressive CVs; two of them, Briton Sebastian Coe and Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry, are Olympic gold medallists and successful administrators since they retired from competition.Bach steps down after a tumultuous 12-year tenure which has encompassed the Covid pandemic, the Russian doping scandal at the Sochi Winter Games in 2014 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.While Coventry would be the first woman and African to lead the Olympic movement, Juan Antonio Samaranch Junior is also seeking to make history by emulating his father of the same name who was president from 1980 to 2001.“I hope it is neither a help nor a hindrance,” Samaranch said of his father, who transformed the IOC into a commercial powerhouse during his tenure.“He left office years ago and his legacy to me personally I appreciate very much.“However, his recipes are not relevant now.”Samaranch, though, has built up a wealth of experience within the movement.It was something the 65-year-old Spaniard was keen to emphasise to the media after making his presentation behind closed doors to the members and where no questions were permitted. “I have more than 25 years inside the organisation, experience on the revenues side and helped organise the Beijing Winter Games during Covid,” he said.“So I have experience to deliver results under real pressure.“I know the job and know how the administration works.”Coventry swatted aside suggestions she was the favoured candidate of Bach, saying he respected all of them and he would not vote.The two-time Olympic swimming gold medallist recalled how she had seen the impact her gold medal had on her compatriots in 2004.“I got back to Zimbabwe which was then very divisive and divided, but it sparked four days of peace,” said the 41-year-old.“I got to see the power of sport and that was why I was standing before (the members) today.”Coventry faced questions over how she and her fellow members on the IOC Executive Board dealt with the controversy in the women’s boxing competition at the Paris Olympics last year when Algerian Imane Khelif and Taiwanese Lin Yu Ting won golds despite previously failing gender tests.“As a female athlete you want to be able to walk onto a level playing field, always,” the Zimbabwean sports minister said.“It is our job as the IOC to ensure we are going to create that environment and not just create a level playing field but an environment that allows for every athlete to feel safe. That is our job.”Coe for his part said he “felt very privileged and very honoured to be a small part of (the Olympic Movement).” The ever-youthful looking 68-year-old two-time 1500 metres gold medallist said engaging with young people was of primary importance.“The biggest challenge is for all of us to excite and engage with young people” he said.“That will be critical as it is that cohort that is ultimately going to be future sponsors, thought leaders and politicians.“We need to create among that group of people a lifelong bond with sport.”Frenchman David Lappartient, the head of the international cycling federation, has been touted as a dark horse.With both the 2028 Olympics and the 2034 Winter Games taking part in the United States, the 51-year-old was keen to emphasise he would be firm with US President Donald Trump over the IOC’s status.“Our autonomy is non-negotiable will be my message,” he said.“Autonomy and political neutrality.”The United States is presently withholding funding from the World Anti-Doping Authority (WADA), but Prince Feisal al-Hussein defended them vigorously.“It is not for me to comment on US policies,” said the Jordanian.“We (the IOC) are the institution who helped establish WADA and I think they have been doing a terrific job.”Whilst the prince focused on integrity, for ski boss Johan Eliasch the message was one of hope.“I bring hope that anything is possible,” said the 62-year-old Anglo-Swedish environmentalist.“In a world of division and disruption we have never needed hope more.”Gymnastics federation president Morinari Watanabe of Japan, bidding like the prince to become the first Asian president of the IOC, stuck to his idea of an Olympics held across the five continents, which even he has said is “crazy.”

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is removing the security detail for former top US military officer Mark Milley (pictured above) — a foe of President Donald Trump — and suspending his security clearance, the Pentagon said.The retired general, who reportedly once labelled Trump a “fascist” to a journalist, is the latest official-turned-critic to see their security protection pulled since Trump began his second term last week.Hegseth informed Milley “that he is revoking the authorisation for his security detail and suspending his security clearance as well,” Pentagon spokesman John Ullyot said in a statement late Tuesday.Milley was named by Trump during his first administration as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but their relationship deteriorated sharply.Milley is believed to be under threat from Tehran for overseeing the 2020 US drone strike ordered by Trump that killed powerful Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.“The secretary may determine whether it is appropriate to reopen his military grade review determination,” Ullyot added.Milley retired as a four-star general, but that process could see him demoted in retirement.Trump has repeatedly promised “retribution” against his opponents and threatened some with criminal prosecution.Trump was enraged after Milley told journalist Bob Woodward that the Republican was “fascist to the core” and a “dangerous person.”Milley also revealed he had secretly called his Chinese counterpart after the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by Trump’s supporters to reassure Beijing that the United States remained “stable” and had no intention to attack China. Trump subsequently wrote on his Truth Social network that “in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!” for Milley. The general stepped down as chairman in 2023 at a ceremony in which he took a final swipe at Trump.“We don’t take an oath to a king, or queen, or a tyrant or a dictator,” Milley said of American troops. “And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator.”Milley’s portrait honouring his service as chairman of the Joint Chiefs was taken down at the Pentagon on the day that Trump was sworn in.The removal of the painting came after former president Joe Biden preemptively pardoned Milley and other Trump opponents in one of his last acts in office.Trump has also revoked security from former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former national security advisor John Bolton, believed to be facing the same threat from Iran.Bolton has become one of Trump’s most outspoken critics since leaving the White House, while Pompeo briefly considered a Republican run for president, reportedly annoying Trump.The president has also removed security protection from Anthony Fauci, who led the country’s fight against Covid-19 starting in Trump’s first term, and has received death threats over his handling of the pandemic.Senior Republican senators have urged him to reconsider.But the White House remained defiant over the decision yesterday, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoing comments from Trump that officials were not entitled to security protection and clearances for life.“The individuals you’re mentioning are quite wealthy, I understand, so they can get their own private security if they wish,” she told reporters.

China and India are two of the most crucial markets in the global aviation industry due to their massive populations, rapid economic growth, and increasing demand for air travel.China is already the world's second-largest aviation market and projected to surpass the United States as the largest by the mid-2030s.On the other hand, India is the third-largest domestic aviation market and one of the fastest-growing globally, with demand driven by a rising middle class.Recently, China and India agreed to resume direct air services after nearly five years, India's foreign ministry said.The in-principle agreement to resume flight services between the two countries, which are suspended since 2020 after the Covid pandemic, was taken during the recent visit of India’s top diplomat Vikram Misri to Beijing, as per the country’s Ministry of External Affairs.According to reports, both sides will negotiate a framework on the flights in a meeting that will be held at an "early date", the ministry said after a meeting between India's top diplomat and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi."The meet also agreed in principle to resume direct air services between the two countries; the relevant technical authorities on the two sides will meet and negotiate an updated framework for this purpose at an early date," as per India’s Ministry of External Affairs.Prior to the halting of air services on the India-China route, the then government-owned Air India and largest domestic carrier IndiGo was operating their flight services to China, according to CNBC TV18.Air India had been operating to China since December 2003 while IndiGo started flying to the neighbouring China only from October 2019 connecting Chengdu from Delhi and Guangzhou with Kolkata.Though later, the airline also announced its plans to connect Chengdu with Mumbai, the plan could not fructify.However, just after nearly four months of the launch of these services in September 2019, all air passenger services had to be temporarily called off in March 2020 owing to the pandemic, with China no exception, CNBC TV18 said.Though the air bubble pact during the pandemic with some 20 countries saw flights to China resuming partially as well, the border issues between the two countries kept the full aviation ties also at bay.However, as China remains India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $101.73bn in financial year 2024, travellers generally fly on airlines of a third country such as Thailand, Singapore, or Hong Kong with one stop for reasons like trade, business and tourism visits.According to prominent aviation analyst Ashwini Phadnis, the announcement will see traction among airlines from both the sides. Indian airlines have always been keen to operate to China. In the early 2000s Air Sahara planned to start services to Guanzhou.While that plan did not materialise, Jet Airways started a Mumbai-Shanghai-San Francisco flight in 2008.The latest announcement will see passenger flights to mainland China as Air India and IndiGo are already flying to Hong Kong.In addition, IndiGo operates an A321F all freighter between Ezhou (a new logistic airport) and Kolkata three times a week but in some weeks the numbers go up depending on demand.IndiGo has also been operating freighter services between Guangzhou and Kolkata.The scope for commercial airlines flying from the two countries can be gauged from the fact that at one time there were over 500 direct flights operated by airlines of the two countries, the New Delhi-based Phadnis pointed out.With Indian airlines taking deliveries of 1,300 aircraft in the next couple of years they will look to open new routes, he said.“With the decision to enhance people-to-people contact being taken at a senior level, at the talks between national security levels on both the sides, it is hoped that the bureaucratic paperwork required for starting flights is not a slow torturous process delaying the implementation of the decision.“However, one factor which could be an impediment is the issue of visas for Indians wanting to go China and for Chinese nationals wanting to come here. Getting a tourist visa can be an uphill task for citizens of both the countries,” Phadnis noted.Analysts say both China and India have seen rapid urbanisation and increasing disposable incomes, leading to higher air travel demand.Government policies, such as China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and India’s ‘UDAN’ regional connectivity scheme, further boost aviation expansion.China is one of the largest outbound tourism markets. India’s international travel demand is growing, supported by rising incomes and visa reforms.Seeing huge prospects, airlines in China and India consistently place large aircraft orders.Chinese airlines have already placed major orders from Boeing and Airbus, with significant growth in domestic aircraft manufacturing (COMAC C919) as well.Leading Indian carriers have also placed massive orders with both Boeing and Airbus, signalling long-term growth.For those looking at potential investments or partnerships in this sector, the two markets offer immense opportunities. Undoubtedly, both countries are shaping the future of global aviation.Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. X handle: @PratapJohn.

China urged the United States to stop politicising origins-tracing of the COVID-19 pandemic.Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in remarks after the US Central Intelligence Agency indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic likely originated from lab leak rather than from a natural source.Origins-tracing is a matter of science and any judgement on it should be made in a science-based spirit and by scientists, Mao noted at a regular news briefing."It is 'extremely unlikely' that the pandemic was caused by a lab leak, this is the authoritative conclusion reached by the experts of the World Health Organization (WHO)-China joint mission based on science following their field trips to the lab in Wuhan and in-depth communication with researchers," Mao said.She added that the conclusion has been widely acknowledged by the international community, including the science community.

The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, said yesterday that his country’s high growth under ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina was “fake” and faulted the world for not questioning what he said was her corruption.Yunus, 84, an economist and the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner, took charge of the South Asian country’s interim government in August after Hasina was forced to flee to neighbouring India following weeks of violent protests.Hasina has been credited with turning around the economy and the country’s massive garments industry during her 15 years in power, although critics have accused her of human rights violations and suppressing free speech and dissent.Hasina, who had ruled Bangladesh since 2009, is being investigated there on suspicion of crimes against humanity, genocide, murder, corruption and money laundering and Dhaka has asked New Delhi to extradite her.Hasina and her party deny wrongdoing, while New Delhi has not responded to the extradition request.“She was in Davos telling everybody how to run a country. Nobody questioned that,” Yunus told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF)’s annual meeting in the Swiss Alpine resort. “That’s not a good world system at all.”“The whole world is responsible for making that happen. So that’s a good lesson for the world,” he said. “She said, our growth rate surpasses everybody else. Fake growth rate, completely.”Yunus did not elaborate on why he thought that growth was fake, but went on to stress the importance of broad-based and inclusive growth, and the need to reduce wealth inequality.Annual growth in the Muslim-majority country of 170mn people accelerated to nearly 8% in the financial year 2017/18, compared with about 5% when Hasina took over in 2009, before the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and the war in Ukraine pulled it down.In 2023, the World Bank described Bangladesh as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.“Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has transformed from one of the poorest countries to achieving lower-middle income status in 2015,” it said.The student-led movement in Bangladesh grew out of protests against quotas in government jobs that spiralled in July, provoking a violent crackdown that drew global criticism, although Hasina’s government denied using excessive force.The student protesters recommended Yunus as the chief adviser in the interim government tasked with holding fresh elections.Yunus, who has promised to hold elections by the end of 2025 or early 2026, said that he is not interested in running.Known as the “banker to the poor”, Yunus and the Grameen Bank that he founded won the Nobel for helping lift millions from poverty with tiny loans of less than $100 offered to the rural poor, too poor to gain attention from traditional banks.“For me, personally, I’m not very driven by growth rates,” Yunus said. “I’m driven by the quality of life of the people at the very bottom level. So I would rather bring an economy which avoids the whole idea of wealth concentration.”Ties between Bangladesh and India, who have strong trade and cultural links, have become fraught since Hasina was ousted and she took refuge in New Delhi.Yunus has demanded that India send Hasina back to Bangladesh so she can face trial for what it says are crimes against protesters and her opponents, and crimes she is accused of committing during her tenure.Calling India’s rival China a long-term friend of Bangladesh at this difficult time, Yunus said the strained relationship with New Delhi “hurts me a lot personally”.“Bangladesh-India relationship should be the strongest possible. You know, you cannot draw the map of India without drawing the map of Bangladesh,” he said, referring to how Bangladesh’s land border runs almost entirely alongside India’s.

On a sunny winter’s morning, Etienne Griffaton walked around the Graines de Soleil urban farming project, near Marseille airport.“It’s hard work here, people have to do a lot of different things,” said Griffaton. “But I think people are happy to have their hands in the soil.”Graines de Soleil is part of a network of non-profit organisations fighting food poverty around France’s second city, Marseille, where around 26% of the population live below the poverty line compared to the French average of around 14%.Across Graines de Soleil’s three hectares (7 acres), 18 employees and around 30 ‘apprentices’ grow fresh produce, which is then sent to grocery co-operatives, restaurants, food banks, and to Colibri, a ‘social grocery’ in the industrial town of Gardanne, north of Marseille.The apprentices include recently arrived immigrants and prisoners on day release. Graines, with funding from the state, prepares them for the labour market, French society, or both.On this day, there is a mix-up with a delivery to Colibri and Caroline Plas, project director with the NGO La Cite de l’agriculture, has been drafted in to help.“I’ve actually never been the delivery guy before,” said Plas, loading several boxes with cabbages, pears, leeks and parsnips into her car. “But I’m glad we can help.”The Covid-19 outbreak made things worse: as the informal economy was hit by lockdowns and energy prices rose, food aid systems were overwhelmed.With Covid, “suddenly, food insecurity became so big, nobody could ignore it,” said Plas, as she drove to Colibri.Addressing stigmaLa Cite de l’agriculture, along with Graines De Soleil and Colibri, is part of Territoires à Vivres, an umbrella organisation set up to fight food insecurity.Since the pandemic, collectives like Territoires a Vivres have developed new ways to provide food while addressing the stigma associated with food banks and what critics describe as a paternalistic attitude towards aid recipients.“With Covid we noticed that the groups working in this field adapted their behaviour... in order to provide people with the food they needed,” said Aicha Sif, a city councillor and deputy mayor in charge of urban agriculture and food sustainability.One of the initiatives, spearheaded by Sif and local NGOs, delivered food to families directly. Another saw the development of social groceries like Colibri.With support from the Catholic Church, Colibri stocks its shelves from urban farms like Graines de Soleil and buys subsidised food from supermarket chains. The staff are all volunteers and each item has two prices.Its members, typically people living just above the poverty line, pay 30% of the retail price, while others pay a full or ‘solidarity’ price.Members include single mothers, retirees as well as immigrants without secure status. They are also “often poor workers who are right on the line despite a small salary, with no help from the state,” said volunteer Pascale Michel.The dignity of choiceUnlike food banks, where people take what they get, Colibri consults its members on what they want to see on the shelves.“If people can choose what they want to eat, it’s for their dignity,” said Michel. “They can buy what they want and feel they’re not begging.”Emmy Barbier is a single mother with a part-time job. Rising food and energy prices mean she struggles to pay her bills.“I live alone with my child, in a fairly old home that isn’t well insulated. Now it’s starting to get cold, we need to heat it. It’s the same problem every year,” she said.Another regular is Giuseppe Zammataro, an Italian chef in his 60s. He lives off a small French pension while awaiting his Italian one, which has been held up by bureaucratic issues.“The food here is good quality and it’s not expensive for me,” said Zammataro. “The other associations that give out food, like food banks, the quality is not very good. Here I have choice.”Zammataro said when he gets his pension, he will keep coming to Colibri to pay the full price.“There are a lot of people who need help like this. This shop is a good way to help.”‘Food desserts’In Marseille’s central Third District, where the poverty rate is over 50%, members of the Racines social grocery can buy limited quantities of food at reduced prices.On Fridays, people living in or near absolute poverty can collect pre-prepared food boxes, paid for by the non-profit Groupe SOS Solidarités.Many immigrant families from the Maghreb and other parts of Africa shop here, including single mothers like Nisrine, who fled Algeria after becoming pregnant while she was unmarried. Now she is undocumented in France.“Here in France it’s very expensive, I need to be careful. I have a three-month-old baby to take care of and so I can’t work. (Racines) is very important for us,” she said.Audrey Boyer, a dietician who works with the local government, said nutrition was also a problem in Marseille with obesity a common issue among poor and immigrant families.“There’s not enough vegetables and fresh food, and the infrastructure is not well-equipped for sport and other activities,” said Boyer. “You also have violence in the streets, so mothers don’t want to go out with their children.”Inequality in Marseille was exacerbated by the pandemic-era collapse of the informal economy, which deprived poor and immigrant families of income.Councillor Sif is working to increase the land available to urban farming projects and relocalise food production.“Food scarcity and precarity are a door to other vulnerabilities within these communities,” said Sif. “When people get access to food aid, we discover afterwards that they are also in need of many other things - energy, appliances, housing.”Back at Racines, volunteer Hayat is finishing for the day.A former beneficiary herself, Hayat, who asked to be identified only by her first name, has been out of work for two years after an accident-related disability.“I want to be useful and active. I want to find a new job, but it’s hard with this handicap. Being here gives me some meaning.” - Thomson Reuters Foundation

Wars are expensive and destructive, affecting long-term economic growth through population changes, fewer investments, and worsening educational outcomes.Global gross domestic product (GDP) would have been 12% higher on average had there been no violent conflict since 1970, according to a report published in the Journal of Peace Research.Armed conflict is the top risk in 2025, a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released ahead of the Annual Meeting in Davos showed, a reminder of the deepening global fragmentation.Nearly one in four of the more than 900 experts surveyed across academia, business and policymaking ranked conflict, including wars and terrorism, as the most severe risk to economic growth for the year ahead.“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape,” WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek said in comments accompanying the report. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”The threat of misinformation and disinformation was ranked as the most severe global risk over the next two years, according to the survey, the same ranking as in 2024.As for conflicts, the statistics are grim, according to the WEF survey.There were close to 60 armed conflicts raging in 2023, the highest number ever recorded. Civilian fatalities surged by more than 30% between 2023 and 2024, mostly due to escalating armed conflicts in the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe.In the past year, at least 200,000 people were killed and over 120mn are currently forcibly displaced – more than half of them within their own borders.Today, roughly 2bn people – one quarter of humanity – live in conflict-affected countries. Meanwhile, global military spending has skyrocketed, reaching an all-time high of more than $2.4tn in 2023.In many of the Middle Eastern countries, poverty is projected to remain elevated, partly reflecting higher inflation, especially for food, according to a World Bank report last week.Risks to the outlook for the region are tilted to the downside. An escalation of armed conflicts in the region and heightened policy uncertainty, particularly unexpected global policy shifts, are major downside risks, the World Bank said.Global growth is expected to increase slightly this year while remaining stuck below its pre-pandemic average, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, flagging the growing economic divide between the United States and European countries.In an update to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said it expects global growth to hit 3.3% this year, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast in October, and to remain at 3.3% in 2026.But the proportion of the world engulfed by conflict has grown 65% – equivalent to nearly double the size of India – over the past three years, according to a new report.Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East and a “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021, according to the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII), published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft early last month.While there was a lull in the levels of conflict globally during the Covid-19 pandemic, experts say there has been a rising trend of violence for at least a decade, while many longstanding crises continue unabated.Angela Rosales, CEO of SOS Children’s Villages International, which helps children separated from their families, said 470mn children worldwide are affected by wars, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon, with serious impacts that go beyond death and injury.“Children in conflict-affected areas are at risk of losing family care if their homes are destroyed, parents are killed or if they become separated when fleeing violence,” she said. They are especially vulnerable to exploitation, enslavement, trafficking and abuse.”

US President Joe Biden issued preemptive pardons yesterday to former Covid pandemic adviser Anthony Fauci, retired general Mark Milley and close family members to shield them from “politically motivated prosecutions” under the Trump administration.In an extraordinary move in his last hours in the White House, Biden gave similar pardons to members and staff of the US House committee that investigated the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by Donald Trump’s supporters.Biden also commuted to home confinement the life sentence of Native American activist Leonard Peltier, 80, who has been imprisoned for nearly 50 years for the 1975 murders of two FBI agents.“I believe in the rule of law, and I am optimistic that the strength of our legal institutions will ultimately prevail over politics,” Biden said in a statement announcing the pardons of Fauci, Milley and the members of the January 6 committee.“But these are exceptional circumstances, and I cannot in good conscience do nothing,” he said.“These public servants have served our nation with honour and distinction and do not deserve to be the targets of unjustified and politically motivated prosecutions.”Trump has repeatedly promised “retribution” against his political opponents and threatened some with criminal prosecution.Fauci, who led the country’s fight against the Covid pandemic during Trump’s first term, has become a hated figure for many on the right, including Trump ally Elon Musk, who has called for the scientist to be prosecuted.Trump was enraged after Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told journalist Bob Woodward that the Republican was “fascist to the core” and a “dangerous person”. Milley also revealed he had secretly called his Chinese counterpart after the Capitol attack to reassure Beijing that the United States remained “stable” and had no intention to attack China.Trump subsequently wrote on his Truth Social network that “in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!” for Milley. Milley thanked Biden for his executive action.“I do not wish to spend whatever remaining time the Lord grants me fighting those who unjustly might seek retribution for perceived slights,” he said in a statement.Fauci also thanked Biden for the pardon, according to US media reports, but stressed “I have committed no crime.”Just minutes before Trump was sworn in as president, Biden announced he was issuing pardons to his brother James Biden, James’s wife Sara Jones Biden, his sister Valerie Biden Owens, Valerie’s husband John Owens, and his brother Francis Biden.“My family has been subjected to unrelenting attacks and threats, motivated solely by a desire to hurt me — the worst kind of partisan politics,” Biden said. “Unfortunately, I have no reason to believe these attacks will end.”The members of the January 6 committee receiving pardons include former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, the daughter of former vice president Dick Cheney and a fierce Trump critic.In his statement, Biden said “baseless and politically motivated investigations wreak havoc on the lives, safety, and financial security of targeted individuals and their families”.The Democrat added that the pardons “should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offence”.Trump has regularly complained of being the victim of “lawfare” under the Biden administration after being criminally prosecuted for offences, including trying to subvert the 2020 election.Yesterday’s moves were the latest in a slew of pardons and clemencies Biden has granted in his final days in office, including commuting the sentences of nearly 2,500 people in one day — and the controversial pardon of his son Hunter.Trump has described jailed supporters who took part in the January 6 attack on the Capitol as “patriots” and “political prisoners” and said he plans to issue pardons for some of them.Former president Richard Nixon received a preemptive pardon from his successor, Gerald Ford, after resigning in disgrace in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal.