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Something has been missing from the flood of commentary following the debate between US President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While voters’ judgments about a candidate’s personality and personal strengths are important, everyone should remember the famous dictum: “It’s the economy, stupid.” In the firehose of outright lies that Trump spewed throughout the debate, the most dangerous falsehoods concerned his and Biden’s respective economic-policy records.Assessing a president’s management of the economy is always a tricky business, because many developments will have been set in motion by one’s predecessors. Barack Obama had to deal with a deep recession because previous administrations had pursued financial deregulation and failed to head off the crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008. Then, with congressional Republicans tying the Obama administration’s hands and calling for belt tightening, the country was deprived of the kinds of fiscal policies that might have brought the economy out of the Great Recession faster. By the time the economy was finally on the mend, Obama was on his way out, and Trump was on his way in.Trump did not hesitate to claim credit for the growth that ensued. But while he and congressional Republicans slashed taxes for corporations and billionaires, the promised surge of investment never materialised. Instead, there was a wave of stock buybacks, which are on track to exceed $1tn next year.Although Trump cannot be blamed for Covid-19, he certainly bears responsibility for an inadequate response that left the US with a death toll far above that of other advanced economies. While the virus disproportionately claimed the lives of the elderly, it also cut into the workforce, and those losses contributed to the work shortages and inflation that Biden inherited.Biden’s own economic record has been impressive. Immediately after taking office, he secured passage of the American Rescue Plan, which made the country’s recovery from the pandemic stronger than that of any other advanced country. Then came the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provided funding to start repairing crucial elements of the US economy after a half-century of neglect.The next year, Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which launched a new era of industrial policy that will ensure the economy’s future resilience and competitiveness (a sharp break from the fragility that marked the preceding neoliberal era). And with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the US finally joined the international community in fighting climate change and investing in the technologies of the future.In addition to providing economic insurance against the possibility of a stubborn and ever-evolving virus, the American Rescue Plan nearly halved the rate of childhood poverty in the space of a year. But it also was blamed (including by some Democrats) for the subsequent inflation.This charge simply does not hold water. There was no excessive aggregate demand from the American Rescue Plan, at least not of a magnitude that could account for the level of inflation. Most of the blame lay with pandemic- and war-induced supply-side interruptions and shifts in demand. Insofar as Biden could combat these, he did so: he tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address oil shortages and worked to relieve bottlenecks at US ports.Even more relevant to this election is what lies in the future. Careful economic modelling has shown that Trump’s proposals would cause higher inflation – in spite of lower growth – and greater inequality.For starters, Trump would raise tariffs, and the costs would mostly be passed on to US consumers. Trump assumes, contrary to basic economics, that China would simply lower its prices to offset the tariffs. But if it did that, no American jobs would be saved (consistency has never been one of Trump’s strengths).Moreover, Trump would curtail immigration, which would make the labour market tighter and increase the risk of labour shortages in some sectors. And he would increase the deficit, the effects of which might induce a worried US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thereby decreasing investment in housing, raising rents and housing costs (a major source of today’s inflation) even further. In addition to slowing growth by dampening investment, higher interest rates would also push up the exchange rate, making US exports less competitive. Moreover, US exports would suffer from higher-cost inputs owing to higher tariffs, and the retaliation they would provoke.e already know that the 2017 corporate tax cuts did not stimulate much investment, and that most of the benefits went to the very rich and to foreigners (who own large shares of US corporations). The additional tax cuts that Trump is promising aren’t likely to do any better, but they will almost certainly increase deficits and inequality.Of course, there is considerable complexity in modelling these effects. It is unclear how fast or forcefully the Fed would respond to tariff-induced inflation, but its economists obviously would see the problem coming. Would they be tempted to nip it in the bud by hiking interest rates early? Would Trump then violate institutional norms by trying to fire the Fed chair? How would the markets (here and abroad) respond to this new era of uncertainty and chaos?The longer-run prognosis is clearer – and worse. America owes much of its economic success in recent years to its technological prowess, which rests on solid scientific foundations. Yet Trump would continue attacking our universities and demanding massive cutbacks in research and development expenditures. The only reason these cuts weren’t made during his previous term is that he did not have his party completely in tow. Now, he does.Similarly, even though the US population is ageing, Trump would allow the workforce to shrink by curtailing immigration. And though economists have emphasised the importance of the rule of law for economic growth, Trump, a convicted felon, is not exactly known for his adherence to it.Thus, on the question of who would be better for the economy – Trump or Biden (or any Democrat who might replace him, should he drop out) – there is simply no debate. – Project SyndicateJoseph E Stiglitz, a former chief economist of the World Bank and former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author, most recently, of The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society (W. W. Norton & Company, Allen Lane, 2024).

The President of the Polish Chamber of Commerce Marek Kloczko stressed that the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to Poland will enhance bilateral trade and economic co-operation between the two countries, and will have significant positive implications for investment flows between both sides.In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA), the president of the Polish Chamber of Commerce stated that Poland and Qatar share historical relations, adding that bilateral trade increased by more than 55% in the past year compared to the previous year.He pointed out that trade exchange witnessed a decline during the Covid-19 pandemic, but it has rebounded after the pandemic ended. He expressed hope for increased investments between both sides.The president of the Polish Chamber of Commerce also explained that gas and various chemical products are among Qatar's major imports to Poland, emphasising the chamber's efforts to increase exports to Qatar, given its strategic importance to Poland, especially in energy where Poland imports significant amounts of gas.Regarding mutual opportunities between the two countries and sectors where co-operation can be expanded, he noted that Qatar is a leading producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Poland is a gas importer, making Qatar a crucial partner in this regard. He also highlighted other areas for co-operation such as food and agriculture industries, transportation, clean energy, and education where both countries can exchange knowledge.He encouraged Qatari businessmen to explore opportunities available in Poland across various sectors, especially in stock market investment, clean energy, modern technology, and others. He stressed the importance of clarifying available investment facilitations in both countries.The president of the Polish Chamber of Commerce concluded by emphasising the necessity of promoting investment in both countries and organising joint meetings between Qatari and Polish businessmen to explain available facilitations and understand the investment climate in both countries.

Labour government will act to fix BritainStarmer says change will take timeSunak stays on as Conservative leader for a whileBritain's new prime minister Keir Starmer pledged on Friday to use his massive electoral majority to rebuild the country, saying he wanted to take the heat out of politics after years of upheaval and strife.Standing outside his new office and residence at Number 10 Downing Street, Starmer acknowledged the scale of the challenge after his party's landslide victory in a parliamentary election ended 14 years of often tumultuous Conservative government.He warned that any improvements would take time, and he would need to first rebuild faith in politics."This lack of trust can only be healed by actions, not words. I know that," he said."Whether you voted Labour or not, in fact, especially if you did not, I say to you directly - My government will serve you. Politics can be a force for good. We will show that."Starmer was greeted by huge cheers and took time before making his speech to shake hands with and hug aides and well-wishers who lined Downing Street - scenes that were reminiscent of Tony Blair's arrival in government in 1997.Standing behind a lectern, he said he understood that many Britons were disillusioned with politics after years of scandal and chaos under the Conservatives, who were roundly rejected in Thursday's election, suffering a historic loss.Starmer said the rejection signalled that Britain was ready for a reset: "Because no matter how fierce the storms of history, one of the great strengths of this nation has always been our ability to navigate away to calmer waters."The centre-left Labour won a massive majority in the 650-seat parliament, prompting Rishi Sunak's resignation on Friday morning, before Starmer went to meet King Charles and be formally named prime minister.He said he would fight every day to rebuild trust, saying Britain would have a "government unburdened by doctrine", underlining something he had repeated during the campaign - that he would put country first, party second."To defy, quietly, those who have written our country off. You have given us a clear mandate, and we will use it to deliver change."The election result has upended British politics. Labour won more than 410 seats, an increase of 211, while the Conservatives, the western world's most successful party, lost 250 lawmakers, including a record number of senior ministers and former Prime Minister Liz Truss.Sunak's Conservatives suffered the worst performance in the party's long history as voters punished them for a cost of living crisis, failing public services and a series of scandals."To the country I would like to say first and foremost I am sorry," Sunak said outside Downing Street, adding he would stay as Conservative leader until the party was ready to appoint his replacement."I have given this job my all, but you have sent a clear signal that the government of the United Kingdom must change, and yours is the only judgment that matters. I have heard your anger, your disappointment and I take responsibility for this loss."Despite Starmer's convincing victory, polls suggested there was little enthusiasm for Starmer or his party. Thanks to the quirk of Britain's first-past-the-post system and a low turnout, Labour's triumph was achieved with fewer votes than it secured in 2017 and 2019 - the latter its worst result for 84 years.The pound and British stocks and government bonds rose marginally on Friday, but Starmer comes to power at a time when the country is facing a series of daunting challenges.Britain's tax burden is set to hit its highest since just after World War Two, net debt is almost equivalent to annual economic output, living standards have fallen, and public services are creaking, especially the much cherished National Health Service which has been dogged by strikes.Some of Labour's more ambitious plans, such as its flagship green spending pledges, have already been scaled back while Starmer has promised not to raise taxes for "working people".Likewise, he has promised to scrap the Conservative's policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, but with migration a key electoral issue, he will be under pressure himself to find a way to stop tens of thousands of people arriving across the Channel from France on small boats."I don't promise you it will be easy," Starmer said earlier at a victory rally. "Changing a country is not like flicking a switch. It's hard work. Patient, determined, work, and we will have to get moving immediately."Britain's election result showed growth in support for the right-wing Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, echoing recent similar results in Europe where the far right have been surging.But, unlike France where Marine Le Pen's National Rally party made historic gains in an election last Sunday, overall the British public has plumped for a centre-left party to bring about change.Starmer has promised to improve relations with the European Union after Brexit, but Labour has said rejoining the EU is not on the table.He may also have to work with Trump if he wins November's presidential election. Trump has already sent congratulations to Farage, via his social media platform Truth Social.While he has promised to bring change domestically, Starmer has vowed to continue London's unequivocal support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. On many foreign issues, his policies are similar to Sunak's.The election victory represents an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it appeared to have lost its way after its 2019 drubbing.A series of Conservative scandals - most notably revelations of parties in Downing Street during Covid lockdowns - undermined then prime minister Boris Johnson and its commanding poll lead evaporated.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves rose to the highest in 18 months after state-controlled oil producer Aramco boosted dividend payments.Net foreign assets held by the kingdom’s central bank jumped 5% to $445bn, or 1.67tn riyals, at the end of May, the highest since November 2022, according to figures released on Sunday. That coincided with Aramco paying out more than $25bn in dividends to the government the same month, up from about $18bn a year earlier.SAMA, as the central bank of the world’s biggest crude oil exporter is known, receives the government’s dividends from Aramco.The country has shifted its investment strategy over the past few years. It’s now keeping a lower proportion of foreign reserves as relatively low yielding, liquid assets such as US Treasuries. Under Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, it’s sought bigger returns and taken on more risk both internationally and domestically, through building up the Public Investment Fund to almost $1tn.SAMA’s reserves peaked at almost $740bn in mid-2014, shortly before a big crash in oil prices.Aramco has been boosting shareholder payouts as it looks to use cash accumulated during 2022’s period of high oil prices and production. The company said in May that it intended to hand shareholder’s $124bn in dividends this year. The vast majority of that goes to the central government, which owns 81.5% of Aramco stock even after the latest secondary offering and transferring a 16% stake to the PIF.Reserves are key to maintaining confidence in the kingdom’s dollar peg. Saudi officials have said that they would use a boom in petrodollar revenue in 2022 to rebuild foreign assets depleted when crude prices slumped during the Covid-19 pandemic.Before Aramco’s 2019 initial public offering, the government changed the formula it used for getting money out of the company, in a move also intended to attract investors. Instead of monthly distributions based on higher levels of taxation and royalty on oil sales, it put in a policy of paying out $75bn a year as a so called base dividend. It later added an additional ‘performance dividend’ to further increase payouts to the government, PIF and investors.Saudi Arabia’s stockpile can now be expected to increase sharply around the dividend schedule — and fall over the months after it in a reflection of cash flow constraints.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves rose to the highest in 18 months after state-controlled oil producer Aramco boosted dividend payments.Net foreign assets held by the kingdom’s central bank jumped 5% to $445bn, or 1.67tn riyals, at the end of May, the highest since November 2022, according to figures released on Sunday. That coincided with Aramco paying out more than $25bn in dividends to the government the same month, up from about $18bn a year earlier.SAMA, as the central bank of the world’s biggest crude oil exporter is known, receives the government’s dividends from Aramco.The country has shifted its investment strategy over the past few years. It’s now keeping a lower proportion of foreign reserves as relatively low yielding, liquid assets such as US Treasuries. Under Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, it’s sought bigger returns and taken on more risk both internationally and domestically, through building up the Public Investment Fund to almost $1tn.SAMA’s reserves peaked at almost $740bn in mid-2014, shortly before a big crash in oil prices.Aramco has been boosting shareholder payouts as it looks to use cash accumulated during 2022’s period of high oil prices and production. The company said in May that it intended to hand shareholder’s $124bn in dividends this year. The vast majority of that goes to the central government, which owns 81.5% of Aramco stock even after the latest secondary offering and transferring a 16% stake to the PIF.Reserves are key to maintaining confidence in the kingdom’s dollar peg. Saudi officials have said that they would use a boom in petrodollar revenue in 2022 to rebuild foreign assets depleted when crude prices slumped during the Covid-19 pandemic.Before Aramco’s 2019 initial public offering, the government changed the formula it used for getting money out of the company, in a move also intended to attract investors. Instead of monthly distributions based on higher levels of taxation and royalty on oil sales, it put in a policy of paying out $75bn a year as a so called base dividend. It later added an additional ‘performance dividend’ to further increase payouts to the government, PIF and investors.Saudi Arabia’s stockpile can now be expected to increase sharply around the dividend schedule — and fall over the months after it in a reflection of cash flow constraints.

Andy Murray said he was relishing a rare opportunity to play alongside fellow Briton Emma Raducanu in the Wimbledon mixed doubles event after the pair were awarded a wildcard by the organisers on Wednesday.Twice singles champion Murray, 37, is playing in his final Wimbledon but pulled out of his singles opener against Czech Tomas Machac on Tuesday due to a back problem.He is also competing in the men’s doubles with his brother Jamie, and they face Australians Rinky Hijikata and John Peers in the first round today.Murray, who last played in the grasscourt Grand Slam’s mixed doubles tournament in 2019 alongside American Serena Williams to reach the third round, said he would enjoy playing with the 21-year-old Raducanu.“We’d spoken about it a few years ago during the Covid year, but both of us ended up doing quite well in singles so it didn’t happen,” Murray said.“And then yesterday I was chatting to my team, they were discussing mixed and last night I messaged her coach and said: ‘Look, do you think this is something maybe she’d be up for doing?’ He said it was worth asking.“I asked her and she said she would be up for it. It should be fun. I’ve played mixed doubles a few times when I was young and then the last time was with Serena. I really enjoyed it, it’s something we rarely get to do.”Former US Open champion Raducanu beat Elise Mertens 6-1 6-2 later on Wednesday and said she had jumped at the chance to partner Murray.“My doubles record isn’t the longest but I couldn’t say no. It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity, a dream of mine since I was a young girl watching the Olympics,” Raducanu said.“Andy’s a hero to us all, so it’s a real gift and a real honour that he asked me.“I’m just super-excited and hopefully I can learn a thing or to about coming to the net or something.”Three-times Grand Slam champion Murray, who resurrected his career after having hip-resurfacing surgery in 2019, previously said that he was unlikely to continue his career beyond this year and could bow out at the Olympics in Paris.The tennis competition at the Games starts on July 27

The UK Conservatives hoped Rishi Sunak would stabilise the party and country when they made him leader following his predecessors' chaotic tenures. Instead, he has led them to the brink of electoral wipeout.The party's MPs installed the 44-year-old former financier in October 2022, after Liz Truss's 49-day premiership imploded when spooked markets moved against her tax-slashing plans.Sunak succeeded to a point in stabilising the country's economy, but failed to stop bitter Tory infighting, or to make a dent in the persistent polling lead held by the opposition Labour Party.Buoyed by rare pieces of economic good news, Sunak called the July 4 election in late May, despite not having to face the voters until early 2025.He hoped the shock announcement would catch right-wingers Reform UK by surprise, and Labour's 20-point polling lead would shrink during the campaign.But Sunak's campaign has lurched from one disaster to another.By far the most damaging was Sunak's decision to leave early from D-Day commemoration events in France, provoking unilateral outrage and alienating the right wing whose votes he desperately needs.Now they look set to vote en masse for Reform, led by Brexit talisman Nigel Farage.He also had to apologise after Conservative candidates and the party's campaign chief were put under investigation over alleged bets placed on the date of the election before it was called.All of which has left Sunak cutting an increasingly frustrated figure, shorn of the bullish rhetoric of the early campaign but still insisting the election result is not a foregone conclusion.- 'Dishy Rishi' -The privately wealthy Sunak struggled to connect with regular voters hit hard by a cost-of-living crisis.He was roundly mocked for suggesting he had an austere childhood because his family did not have satellite television, and his interactions with voters have often seemed awkward.His current difficulties are a far cry from his rapid rise to power, becoming Britain's youngest prime minister of modern times at age 42, as well as the first of South Asian descent.The observant Hindu was born in Southampton on England's south coast on May 12, 1980, to a family doctor father and a mother who ran a local pharmacy.Sunak's grandparents were from Punjab in northern India and emigrated from eastern Africa in the 1960s, arriving in Britain with "very little", he has said.Sunak was educated at the exclusive private Winchester College, then Oxford and Stanford universities.During his Tory leadership bid, a video emerged of a 21-year-old Sunak talking about his friends."I have friends who are aristocrats, I have friends who are upper-class, I have friends who are, you know, working-class," he says, before adding quickly: "Well, not working-class."After making millions in finance, Sunak won the safe and overwhelmingly white Conservative seat of Richmond in Yorkshire, northern England, in 2015.His Instagram-friendly profile earned him the media nickname of "Dishy Rishi".An early backer of Brexit, he took over as finance minister in February 2020 -- a baptism of fire as the Covid pandemic erupted.The details-oriented policy wonk was forced to craft an enormous economic support package at breakneck speed, which he regularly touts as one of his proudest achievements in politics.- Wealthy wife -The pandemic sullied his squeaky clean reputation, though, after he received a police fine for breaching Covid rules by joining a birthday gathering for then-prime minister Boris Johnson at Downing Street.Sunak also faced difficult questions about the tax affairs of his wife Akshata Murty, whose father Narayana Murthy is the billionaire co-founder of IT giant Infosys.In early 2022, newspapers reported she had non-domiciled status, meaning she had not been paying UK taxes on her Infosys returns.The news hit Sunak's approval ratings and Murty announced that she would pay UK taxes on her global income.The Sunaks met while studying in California and have two young daughters, plus a photogenic dog.He insists his own family's experience, and that of his wife, are a "very Conservative" story of hard work and aspiration.In July 2022, Sunak quit as finance minister, helping to trigger Johnson's resignation after one scandal too many and public anger at the government's Covid response.Many Tories have never forgiven him and have harped against his leadership from the sidelines.He insists only he has a "clear plan" backed by "bold action" to change Britain but voters look set to limit his time in office to less than two years.

When Keir Starmer’s Labour pulled ahead in the polls in 2023, British business leaders started to fret that, if elected, the opposition party would impose strict laws around hiring, firing, pay and conditions that would limit their growth.But a year on, eight leading bosses say in interviews that they are more relaxed, and that engaging with the centre-left party gives them confidence they can strike a balance that works for workers, employers and the wider economy. Opinion polls suggest Labour will win the July 4 election easily and end the 14-year rule of the Conservatives — once favoured by business before presiding over a messy exit from the European Union and years of political churn.That has left room for Labour to try to gain the trust of company bosses.“I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve heard, as have my peers,” Alex Baldock, CEO of electricals retailer Currys, which employs 14,000 in Britain, told Reuters.“Of course it’s laudable to seek to protect people, but there needs to be a balance here and we need to make sure that the job creation and the flexibility that’s really important to businesses and to colleagues isn’t inadvertently damaged.”Labour says British employment laws are outdated, a drag on economic growth and a major factor in the UK’s worst period of industrial relations since the 1980s. It has pledged to ban “exploitative” zero hours contracts, end so-called “fire and rehire” practices, and introduce basic rights to parental leave, sick pay and protection from unfair dismissal from day one of employment.It also plans to ensure the national minimum wage is a “genuine living wage”, removing “discriminatory” age bands for younger earners, and has left open the door for a repeal of anti-strike laws put in place by the Conservative government.Starmer has been trying to move the party back to the centre ground from the left, seeking to work with companies while trying to retain the support of Labour’s union backers, who say weak protections leave too many workers in a precarious situation. Economic think tanks have previously described Britain as a laggard in the area of minimum employee benefits. But a tight labour market after Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic has prompted some companies to up their game.“The broad thrust of this is one that is good for Britain’s workers and good for Britain’s businesses,” Jonathan Reynolds, Labour’s business policy chief, told Reuters.Reflecting concerns that the proposed measures could raise costs and reduce operational flexibility, Labour said it would “consult fully with businesses, workers, and civil society” on how to put the plans into practice before legislation is passed.Ken Murphy, CEO of supermarket Tesco, which with a UK workforce of about 270,000 is Britain’s biggest private sector employer, said he was “not unduly worried”.“Many of the measures outlined in proposed legislation we’re already ahead of,” he said, noting, for example, that Tesco already recognises an independent trade union.Stuart Machin, CEO of retailer Marks & Spencer, one of the best known names in British business with 40,000 store workers, similarly told Reuters he was “not overly worried”.“Whoever comes in government, we want them to work seriously with business,” he said.Other big employers, including grocer Asda and baker Greggs , also said they were relaxed about the proposed changes.According to Helen Dickinson, head of the British Retail Consortium, which speaks for a sector employing 17% of workers, Labour’s stance on zero-hours contracts is a case in point. The contracts, which do not guarantee any set number of working hours, have prompted broad debate about the balance of power between employers and staff.“The headlines a year ago were about banning zero-hours contracts, whereas the outcome presented by Labour is very different,” she said, with an emphasis on getting rid of “exploitative” contracts and a recognition that some workers appreciate the flexibility of a zero-hours contract.Dickinson said Labour’s employment plans “had looked quite scary” initially, but that meetings with Reynolds and with Rachel Reeves, who will become Britain’s finance minister if Labour wins, had changed that.Currys’ Baldock said he felt Labour had listened to his argument on the importance of retaining probation periods for new recruits.But not everyone is happy. Unite, one of Britain’s biggest unions, did not endorse Labour’s manifesto, saying it was disappointed that the party had softened its proposed worker protections. — Reuters

With artificial intelligence (AI) becoming prevalent in more and more walks of life, it should not be a surprise to learn that large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed in academic writing too, as confirmed by a study published by Cornell University. ‘Delving into ChatGPT usage in academic writing through excess vocabulary’ by Dmitry Kobak, Rita González Márquez, Emoke-Ágnes Horvát, and Jan Lause have revealed that recent LLMs can generate and revise text with human-level performance, and have been widely commercialised in systems like ChatGPT.These models come with clear limitations: they can produce inaccurate information, reinforce existing biases, and be easily misused. Yet, many scientists have been using them to assist their scholarly writing. How wide-spread is LLM usage in the academic literature currently? To answer this question, the researchers used an unbiased, large-scale approach, free from any assumptions on academic LLM usage. They analysed over 14mn PubMed abstracts from 2010 to 2024 and created a matrix of word occurrences across these abstracts and calculated the annual frequency of each word. By comparing the observed frequencies in 2023 and 2024 to counterfactual projections based on trends from 2021 and 2022, they identified words with significant increases in usage. These words, termed “excess words,” were then used to gauge the influence of LLMs.The analysis revealed that certain words, especially stylistic ones like “delves,” “showcasing,” and “underscores,” showed marked increases in frequency, suggesting LLM involvement. The researchers quantified this excess usage with two measures: the excess frequency gap (the difference between observed and expected frequencies) and the excess frequency ratio (the ratio of observed to expected frequencies). They found a substantial rise in the number of excess words in 2024, coinciding with the widespread availability of ChatGPT. This increase was unprecedented, surpassing the vocabulary changes observed during the Covid-19 pandemic.To estimate the extent of LLM usage, the researchers used the frequency gap of excess words as a lower bound. For example, the word “potential” showed an excess frequency gap, indicating that at least 4% of 2024 abstracts included this word due to LLM influence. By analysing abstracts containing words with excess usage, the authors obtained a lower bound of 10% for LLM-assisted papers in 2024. This approach provided a robust lower bound, acknowledging that the actual figure could be higher due to some LLM-processed abstracts not containing any tracked excess words.The research highlights a significant shift in academic writing styles due to the advent of LLMs like ChatGPT. By developing a novel methodology to track excess word usage, the study provides compelling evidence that LLMs have had a notable impact on scientific literature, with at least 10% of recent biomedical abstracts showing signs of AI assistance. This underscores the transformative effect of LLMs on scholarly communication and raises important questions about research integrity and the future of academic writing.LLMs have been around since the 1990s, but it wasn’t until the 2010s that their use became more popular. They have been used as the basis for AI assistants like Apple’s Siri and ChatGPT. Because of their ability to process vast sets of data there have been attempts to use them to accelerate progress across a range of industries. Early drug discovery is no exception and many AI-led biotechs have released LLM-related announcements.LLMs are based on deep learning architectures, particularly transformers, which enable them to process and generate text with a high degree of coherence and relevance. LLMs, like GPT-4, are trained on vast amounts of text data from the Internet, books, articles and other sources. This training allows them to learn the complexities of language, including grammar, context and even some level of reasoning and common sense. The latter is a large claim, so scientists are right to be wary.

QNB said today in its weekly economic commentary that the outlook for the global economy for this year has improved on the back of positive developments in all the three major economies (the US, the Euro Area, and China). It maintained that, while the expected pace of expansion of 2.9 percent is below the long-term average, it stands at a safe distance from the recessionary range.The report cited strong headwinds at the beginning of the year that set a pessimistic tone in outlining global growth expectations for 2024. It cited a Bloomberg survey, which tracks forecasts from analysts, think tanks, and research houses, that showed that the expected pace of expansion in world GDP for this year was 2.6 percent. That figure was one percentage point below the 3.6 percent average during 2000-2023. Furthermore, it is just marginally above the threshold of 2.5 percent below which a yearly growth rate indicates a global recession. During the period of 2000-2023, global recessions only occurred during the exceptional episodes of the Global Financial Crisis, in 2009, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020. Since 1980, the global economy has experienced four recessions according to this standard."However, positive developments led to a revision of expectations in the three major world economies: the US, China, and the Euro Area, which jointly represent approximately 60 percent of global GDP," the report added before examining three drivers of that improved outlook. ,The first was the upward trajectory of the US economy's growth projections. Data prints signaled that the economy was standing on firm footing. The GDP figures for the Q1-2024 showed that consumption of services, which accounts for a sizable share of the economy, grew at an annualized rate of 4 percent, significantly above the 2.3 percent pace of expansion in 2023, the report said. There were also the healthy household balance sheets and robust labor markets that continued to provide support to consumption. The report also highlighted leading indicators showing that the anticipated deceleration of the US economy will be smooth, with the current consensus pointing to growth of 2.4 percent for this year, just barely below the 2.5 percent growth of 2023. The improvement in perspectives for the worlds biggest economy provided a significant contribution to the improvement of the global outlook.The second driver meanwhile was the improvement in Chinas, with Q1-2024 growth coming in at 5.3 percent, beating expectations quite comfortable. QNB cited the wide range of policies implemented by the Chinese government to provide support to the private sector and further promote foreign direct investments. These initiatives, the bank said, ranged from interest rate reductions and liquidity injections to public investment.The third was that the Euro area was undergoing a mild recovery as well. After getting dragged in a negative spiral that saw growth of -0.1 percent in Q2 and Q3 of 2023, this year's growth came in at 0.55 percent.

Deadly Kenyan protests that scuppered tax hikes and a failed coup amid fading economic prospects in Bolivia this week are violent reminders of the dangers posed by faltering economies and punishing austerity measures. Bolivia’s President and former economy minister Luis Arce fended off the putsch on Wednesday, but faces ongoing US dollar shortages and soaring borrowing costs that pushed the country’s credit rating to “junk.” Kenya’s President William Ruto, who reversed support for a tax-hike measure, now must find another path to make his nation’s debt pile of some $80bn more manageable.Around the world, low income nations were sucked into economic crisis — and in some cases, debt default — after the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic decimated parts of the global economy.Now, the crisis is reverberating in Kenya, Bolivia and other middle-income nations bearing the brunt of a surge in inflation and the rapid global interest rate rises that followed the pandemic. Borrowing costs soared and Russia’s war in Ukraine exacerbated a rise in prices of fuel and food. “There are a lot of governments around the world all facing the pain, delayed fiscal pain, from the interest rate hikes that we’ve seen in recent years” said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy with FIM Partners, which invests in emerging market debt.“It’s not a surprise that the country might reach a breaking point.” At least 23 people died in Kenya as protests spiralled from online condemnations of the tax hikes into mass rallies demanding a political overhaul.“It is not just the taxes,” said Mary Ngigi, a 37-year-old clothing company worker in Kenya, on why she was protesting.“When you go to the hospitals, there is no medicine. When you go to the schools, there are no infrastructures.” Turmoil is spreading. In Nigeria, workers protesting rising fuel and food costs caused a nationwide power outage, and leaders face rising subsidy costs despite tripling petrol prices last year.In 2023, a record 54 developing countries, equivalent to 38% of the total, allocated 10% or more of government revenues to interest payments, with nearly half of them in Africa, according to a report from UN Trade and Development agency UNCTAD.Multilateral banks and political risk firms have warned of a ticking time bomb for some time. While debt relief efforts had centred on the poorest nations with solvency problems, and rightly so according to the World Bank, not enough had been done for lower middle-income countries facing temporary liquidity pressures in the near future.“Without action, 2024 will see a further rise in debt vulnerability — potentially leading to reversals in development outcomes,” World Bank senior managing director Axel van Trotsenburg warned.Kenya, like others, borrowed heavily in the mid-2000s, when interest rates were low — and China was splashing cash via its Belt and Road initiative to lend to emerging markets worldwide. Over the past 20 years Kenya amassed some $82bn of debt to build roads, railways and factories. But not all ambitious projects were completed and many Kenyans felt they had not benefited, while a slew of corruption scandals spurred allegations that elites enriched themselves.“There is no cut on corruption,” Boniface Mwangi, a prominent social justice activist in Kenya told Reuters. “We have no problem paying debt, but...what did you do with that money that you borrowed?” Ruto has said he is waging a war on corruption and has called for those responsible for graft to be prosecuted.Kenya managed to avoid default by issuing more debt earlier this year — but at a punishing interest rate above 10%. After this week’s protest, the country’s bond prices slid again.To keep crucial IMF cash coming, Ruto must find a way to balance the books.

Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard begins his quest for a third consecutive Tour de France title today when the peloton heads out of Florence in sizzling heat for an opening stage packed with hills.Fans have flocked into Florence for the Grand Depart of the 111th edition of the Tour, a 21-day 3,498km run that crosses the Alps twice and ends on the French Riviera on July 21.The race is billed as a four-way struggle between Visma’s Vingegaard, former champion and favourite Tadej Pogacar of Team UAE, former Vuelta and Giro champion Red Bull rider Primoz Roglic and Tour newcomer Remco Evenepoel of Soudal Quick-Step.Evenepoel, who won both the Vuelta and the world championships in 2022, has described Pogacar as “untouchable if he stays safe and sound” even though the Slovenian revealed on arrival in Florence that he was recovering from a dose of Covid.The big four all predicted the first two days would feature a scrap for the yellow jersey between Visma’s Wout Van Aert and his eternal rival Mathieu Van der Poel. Van Aert deflected the attention by moaning that he was in “the worst form for a Tour de France of my life” and insisting his role at the Grand Boucle was simply to help Vingegaard.Both men suffered bad falls in the build up to the Tour.World champion Van Der Poel also shrugged off the expectation.“The first two days look too hard for me and (teammate) Jasper (Philipsen),” he said. Day one takes the 176 riders over seven climbs as it crosses Italy to the Adriatic seaside resort of Rimini with its pretty beaches and lidos.Director Christian Prudhomme has promised a brawl from day one, and a Team UAE attack would seem as likely a scenario as any, given they did just that on stage 1 in 2023.Adam Yates is one of four UAE riders described by team leader Pogacar as “superstars”, and he would seem equipped to take the yellow jersey again after beating his twin brother Simon to the line on day one last year.Another Briton, Tom Pidcock, Roglic and even Pogacar himself are also worth keeping an eye on Saturday. Of the Italians gunning for the yellow in Italy, Alberto Bettiol of EF Education First is nailed on to make a bid as the American team have a history of gunning for a day one yellow jersey.The seven climbs are all short and average out at around 6.5 percent incline, making for some explosive racing.Ageing British sprinter Mark Cavendish, 39, is back at the Tour de France as the subject of his own Netflix documentary on his personal quest for one last stage win before riding off into the sunset.The Manx Missile, who was given a knighthood in King Charles’s birthday honours earlier this month, has 34 Tour de France stage wins over his career, the same as Eddy Merckx. “Everybody would love to see Mark win a 35th stage, but just don’t expect us to give him one,” said defending green jersey Mads Pedersen.Winner of the 2020 and 2021 Tour de France, Pogacar won the Giro d’Italia with supreme ease in May and is gunning to become the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 - the year Pogacar was born - to win the rare combination of a Tour-Giro double.His Giro campaign was a parade through Italy in pink, and if his form is unaffected by a bout of Covid 11 days ago this could well happen again in France.One thing in his favour might be the sheer length of the time-trials.Stage seven takes in a flat 25km through the vineyards from Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin while the final stage will provide a jaw-dropping 35km chase along the Riviera from Monaco to Nice.Both will suit Pogacar but as the Slovenian knows only too well, a lot can happen over 21 days and 3,498km of road.