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Six Republican candidates are jostling to be their party’s presidential nominee for the 2024 general election, while President Joe Biden is the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, and several third-party hopefuls have joined the fray.Here is a list of the candidates.REPUBLICAN PARTYDonald TrumpTrump has embraced his indictments in four separate criminal cases — unprecedented for a former American president — and leveraged them to boost his popularity among Republicans and raise funds, helping to make him the Republican frontrunner with 61% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling.Trump, 77, has called the indictments a political witch hunt to thwart his pursuit of a second four-year term, an assertion that the Justice Department has denied. If elected again, Trump has vowed revenge against his perceived enemies and has adopted increasingly authoritarian language, including saying he would not be a dictator except “on day one.”He has promised other sweeping changes, including gutting the federal civil service to install loyalists and imposing tougher immigration policies such as mass deportations and ending birthright citizenship. He has also promised to eliminate Obamacare health insurance and impose harsher curbs on trade with China.Nikki HaleyA former South Carolina governor and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Haley, 51, has emphasised her relative youth compared to Biden, 81, and Trump, as well as her background as the daughter of Indian immigrants.Haley has gained a reputation in the Republican Party as a solid conservative who has the ability to address issues of gender and race in a more credible fashion than many of her peers. She has also pitched herself as a stalwart defender of American interests abroad, and has argued Trump’s management style is too chaotic and divisive to be effective. She earned 12% support among Republicans, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey. In state-level polls, Haley has typically led rival Ron DeSantis in South Carolina and New Hampshire, where she has secured Republican Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement.Ron DesantisThe Florida governor has positioned himself to the right of Trump on several key social issues such as abortion, but his campaign has struggled to gain traction and he remains 50 percentage points behind the former president in the Reuters/Ipsos December poll with 11%.DeSantis, 45, has fired staff and rebooted his campaign several times, but those steps have done little to boost his candidacy. His campaign says it is focused on stopping Trump in Iowa, where the party will hold its first nominating contest in January. He got a lift on November 6 when Iowa’s popular governor, Kim Reynolds, endorsed him, and rose slightly in a recent statewide poll.Vivek RamaswamyA former biotechnology investor and executive, Ramaswamy, 38, started a company in 2022 to pressure firms to abandon environmental, social, and corporate governance initiatives. The political outsider has stoked grassroots chatter as a potential alternative to Trump but has failed to gain traction with just 7% support in the Reuters/Ipsos survey. Ramaswamy is a fervent supporter of the former president, and has drawn his rivals’ ire for his verbal attacks at candidate debates.He has also voiced support for conspiracy theories, including suggesting that Trump supporters’ January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol was an inside job, and has pledged to pardon Trump if elected.Chris ChristieChristie, 61, advised Trump’s 2020 White House campaign, but became a vocal critic of the former president after the January 6 attack, and has stepped up his verbal attacks as Trump faced a growing number of criminal charges.The former New Jersey governor and federal prosecutor has said he is increasingly convinced Trump will be convicted, and has cast himself as one of the few Republicans willing to directly take on Trump over his actions rather than appease him. Christie saw just 2% support in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.Asa HutchinsonThe former Arkansas governor launched his bid for the White House in April with a call for Trump to step aside to deal with the former president’s first indictment. Hutchinson, 73, has touted his experience leading his deeply conservative state as proof he can deliver on policies Republican voters care about, citing tax cuts and job creation initiatives.Hutchinson only qualified for the first Republican debate and saw no support in the Reuters/Ipsos December poll.DEMOCRATIC PARTYJoe BidenBiden, 81, already the oldest US president ever, will have to convince voters he has the stamina for another four years in office, amid concerns about his age and poor approval ratings. Biden allies say he believes he is the only Democratic candidate who can defeat Trump. In announcing his candidacy, Biden declared it was his job to defend American democracy, and referred to the deadly January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by Trump supporters. Vice-President Kamala Harris is again his running mate. The economy will factor in his re-election campaign. While the US escaped an anticipated recession and is growing faster than economists expected, inflation hit 40-year highs in 2022 and the cost of food and gas is weighing on voters.Biden has led the response of Western governments to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, persuading allies to sanction Moscow and support Kyiv, and he has been supportive of Israel in its conflict with Hamas militants in Gaza. However, he has faced sharp criticism from some within his party for failing to back calls for a ceasefire in the Palestinian territory, where Gaza health officials say more than 22,000 people have been killed, thousands of buildings have been damaged or destroyed and residents have insufficient food, water and medical supplies.At home, he has pushed through massive economic stimulus and infrastructure spending packages to boost US industrial output, although he has received little recognition from voters for the latter. Biden’s handling of immigration policy has been criticised by Republicans and Democrats as migrant crossings at the US-Mexico border hit record highs during his administration.Marianne WilliamsonThe best-selling author and self-help guru Marianne Williamson, 71, has launched her second, long-shot bid for the White House on a platform of “justice and love.” She ran as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential primary but dropped out of the race before any votes had been cast. She launched her latest campaign on March 23 and will be on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.Dean PhillipsDean Phillips, a little-known US congressman from Minnesota, announced in October he would mount a long-shot challenge to Biden because he does not believe the president can win another term. The 54-year-old millionaire businessman and gelato company co-founder announced his bid in a one-minute video posted online, saying: “We’ve got some challenges...We’re going to repair this economy, and we are going to repair America.”INDEPENDENTSRobert F Kennedy JrAn anti-vaccine activist, Robert F Kennedy Jr, 69, is running as an independent after initially challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination, but he is far behind in polling. But a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online December 5-11 showed that Kennedy could draw more support from Biden than Trump in the presidential election, where third-party candidates have affected the outcome of US elections even without winning. He is the son of US Senator Robert F Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1968 during his own presidential bid. Kennedy was banned from Instagram for spreading misinformation about vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic but was later reinstated.He lost a legal bid to force YouTube owner Google to reinstate videos of him questioning the safety of Covid vaccines.Cornel WestThe political activist, philosopher and academic said in June he would launch a third-party bid for president that is likely to appeal to progressive, Democratic-leaning voters.West, 70, initially ran as a Green Party candidate, but in October he said people “want good policies over partisan politics” and announced his bid as an independent. He has promised to end poverty and guarantee housing.Jill SteinJill Stein, a physician, re-upped her 2016 Green Party bid on November 9, accusing Democrats of betraying their promises “for working people, youth and the climate again and again — while Republicans don’t even make such promises in the first place.”Stein, 73, raised millions of dollars for recounts after Trump’s surprise 2016 victory. Her allegations yielded only one electoral review in Wisconsin, which showed Trump had won.

Home to around 1.5bn people, approximately one-sixth of the world’s population, Africa’s importance in the global economy is growing. But, since the turn of the century, the continent has been faced with several shocks that have arisen largely beyond its borders.More than 280mn people are going hungry in Africa, as fallout from climate change and the war in Ukraine deepen the region’s insecurity.“Africa is facing a food crisis of unprecedented proportions,” the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Food Program, the African Union and the UN Economic Commission for Africa has warned in a report. “After a long period of improvement between 2000 and 2010, hunger has worsened substantially and most of this deterioration occurred between 2019 and 2022.”The report estimated that the number of undernourished people in Africa increased by 57mn since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.An estimated 868mn Africans were moderately or severely food insecure, with more than a third of that number in the second group, according to the report. In addition, 78% of Africa’s population cannot afford a healthy diet, compared to around half at a global level.The number of people unable to meet their minimum food consumption needs in South Africa is expected to marginally decline to just under one in two by 2025, according to the World Data Lab.The firm, which conducted research for Shoprite Holdings Ltd’s food index, estimates that 49% of South Africans will be food insecure in two years’ time, down from 52% at the height of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.The worsening food security situation make it imperative for countries to “to step up their efforts if they are to achieve a world without hunger and malnutrition by 2030,” the UN report said.“The call for greater action remains true in view of the projected lower rate of economic growth, high general and food price inflation, and raising borrowing costs on domestic and international markets since 2022.”Surging food prices in the aftermath Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have caused a cost of living crisis across Africa, while heavy borrowing costs are raising the risk of default.The average debt ratio in sub-Saharan Africa has almost doubled in just a decade; from 30% of GDP at the end of 2013 to almost 60% of GDP by end-2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.Repaying this debt has also become much costlier.The IMF estimates that more than half of Africa’s low-income countries either face a high risk of debt distress or are already experiencing it.In some countries, more than 40% of the state budget goes to servicing the debt: An unsustainable level in countries that need to maintain basic public services such as water and electricity.In a wider sense, some of the things that went wrong for Africa — including the pandemic and global inflation — are not its fault. But poor decisions as money was flowing in when commodity prices were high, and gorging on cheap borrowing that become unsustainably expensive amid raising interest rates, are home-grown problems.The UN projects that by 2050, Africa’s population will reach close to 2.5bn. Such a figure would mean that more than 25% of the world’s population will be African.Looking ahead, Africa will remain by far the largest source of growth globally: Its share of the world’s population is set to reach close to 40% by the end of the century.For the world economy to grow faster as a whole, Africa would need to find a way to employ these workers productively and capitalise on its demographic dividend.“We cannot have a prosperous world unless we also have stable and prosperous Africa,” according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Gabriel Attal promised to be bold and act fast to help the middle class weather the rising cost of living, after President Emmanuel Macron, seeking to breathe new life into his second term, on Tuesday made him France’s youngest ever prime minister.The appointment of Attal, 34, a popular and media-savvy rising star of French politics, signals a desire by Macron to move beyond divisive reforms and improve his centrist party’s chances in European Parliament elections in June.“Dear @GabrielAttal, I know I can count on your energy and your commitment to implement the project of revitalisation and regeneration that I announced,” Macron wrote on social media after appointing Attal, a close ally and former minister and government spokesman.Widespread public discontent over surging living costs and last year’s contested pension reform have seriously hit Macron’s ratings, and his chances in the EU ballot, where his party trails badly behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right.“I’m well aware of the context in which I take on this job,” Attal said.“Too many French doubt our country, doubt themselves or our future. I think in particular of the middle class...who get up every morning to go to work...and sometimes can’t make ends meet,” he said, promising to work to “control our destiny and free up France’s potential”.Shorn of a working majority in parliament, Macron has battled to push through his second-term reform agenda, and is now set to focus on more consensual objectives such as aiming to reach full employment.Attal has polled as one of France’s most popular politicians in recent months. A Macron loyalist, he became a household name as government spokesman during the Covid pandemic and earned a reputation as a smooth communicator.Macron, 46, and Attal have a combined age just below that of Joe Biden, who is running for a second term in this year’s US presidential election.“The youngest president in (France’s) history is appointing the youngest prime minister in (France’s) history. I want to see it as a symbol of audacity,” said Attal.Attal replaces Elisabeth Borne, 62, only the second woman to hold the prime minister role in France. A dutiful and hard-working technocrat, her year and a half in office was marked by months of protests over the pension overhaul and riots over the police shooting of a teenager of north African descent.Macron and Attal may take several days to name a new government. An Elysee aide said the usual Wednesday cabinet meeting was unlikely this week.In recent weeks Macron, who has struggled to deal with a more turbulent parliament since being re-elected in 2022, had signalled that it was time for change.Some voters seemed to welcome that.“I think it’s very good to have a young person...because it’s a different concept, it’s more dynamic,” said 81-year-old retiree Remi Blondel.However others were sceptical, with opponents — and some voters — saying not much would change, as Macron takes on the bulk of decision-making himself.“What can the French hope for from this fourth prime minister and this fifth government in seven years? Nothing,” said Le Pen.Attal is “young” and “fits nicely into the frame. But beyond that what does the reshuffle change for us? Personally, not much,” Parisian Sophie Varillon said.MP Patrick Vignal, who belongs to Macron’s Renaissance party, praised Attal, who he said was “a bit like the Macron of 2017”, referring to the point at which the President first took office as the youngest leader in modern French history, at the time a popular figure among voters.Attal “is clear, he has authority”, Vignal said.The reshuffle is likely to intensify the race in Macron’s camp to succeed him in the next presidential election in 2027, with former prime minister Edouard Philippe, Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire all seen as potential candidates — alongside Attal.

The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) urged individuals at high risk of developing severe symptoms because of viral respiratory infections to take measures to protect themselves and their health.The advice comes as temperatures drop in Qatar and the presence of common winter respiratory viruses including seasonal influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and Covid-19.Director of Health Protection and Communicable Disease Control at MoPH, Dr. Hamad al-Romaihi, said: "Certain population groups are at increased risk of developing more severe symptoms if they become infected with these common winter viruses. This includes people over 50 years of age, individuals with chronic medical conditions, pregnant women, and young children, particularly those below 5 years of age."He continued: "It is important for individuals to take measures to protect themselves against winter viruses and reduce severe symptoms if they do become infected. The most effective protective measure to reduce the risk of severe flu and Covid-19 symptoms is to get vaccinated annually. Each year, flu and Covid-19 vaccines are updated to ensure they offer maximum protection against the latest strains of the viruses.""The Ministry of Public Health has approved the latest updated versions of flu and Covid-19 vaccines, and we encourage high risk individuals to ensure they have received the latest vaccines," added Dr. al-Romaihi.Influenza vaccines are available at more than 90 healthcare facilities across Qatar, including 31 PHCC health centers, outpatient clinics at HMC hospitals, and more than 45 semi-governmental and private hospitals and clinics, while Covid-19 vaccines are available at all 31 PHCC health centers.

Winter tourism in China has rebounded sharply in a welcome boon to economically weak regions in the north struggling to recover from years of pandemic gloom, and providing a boost to sluggish domestic consumption.Destinations in China’s northeastern rust-belt, such as the city of Harbin in Heilongjiang province, have attracted droves of domestic visitors from warmer climes in the past weeks. The growing popularity of winter sports has also drawn skiers and snowboarders to the slopes of Xinjiang in northwestern China.It was the first time since 2019 before the arrival of Covid-19 that many Chinese tourists have enjoyed their winter vacations without worrying about lockdowns and infections.Data from booking platform Ctrip showed pre-ordered year-end ski passes doubling on a weekly basis, double the traffic the year before, while ski group tour bookings grew 70% weekly, nearly 30% more than the previous year. An official tourism report forecast 25-30% more tourists this season compared to the last, and numbers could exceed 400mn people for the first time, potentially generating as much as 550bn yuan ($76.8bn) in revenue. In its five-year tourism development plan, China has called for a boost in “ice and snow tourism” from opening more ski resorts to tapping local culture and traditions. At an annual agenda-setting economic conference in December, the government said it would make efforts to spur domestic demand this year.“It is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment promote each other,” it said.China, which has set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2023, has grappled with multiple headwinds including mounting local government debt, a still ailing housing market and tepid demand at home and abroad. Faced with an uncertain economy, consumers have tightened their belts.In China’s northeast, Harbin has become a darling destination for holidaymakers, as its popularity on social media soared and state media extended coverage on its burst of tourism. The city is hosting a months-long festival showcasing sculptures built from ice blocks harvested from a frozen river, luring 3.05mn tourists to the city during the New Year holidays in one of the world’s largest snow and ice sculpture festivals.Yabuli Ski Resort Finance Director Jin Honglan told Reuters that visitors at the resort have doubled from previous years, and tourist spots around the city are now bursting with people. “Next year and the year after that, (it) will be even more popular. Everyone is feeling the enthusiasm for skiing,” she said.Heilongjiang, the once resource-rich province that fuelled industrial development in coal, minerals and timber, has rolled out measures to “transform the advantages of its ice and snow resources” and turn itself into an international winter tourism destination, according to the state-controlled People’s Daily.Yueyua, a 50-year-old tourist from Ningbo city in the eastern Zhejiang province, said winter sports have gained popularity as awareness increased.“There is a lot of publicity, different types of media coverage, bloggers, things like that,” the lady, donning a lilac-coloured ski suit, said. In line with the winter tourism rebound, demand for accommodation has surged.Tourists have even gone on social media to complain about price gouging after some homestays in a rural part of Heilongjiang famed for its snow landscapes charged 3,000 yuan ($419) a night for just two mattresses on the floor.Miles west, at a ski resort in northwestern Xinjiang region, this winter was “obviously more lively” than in previous years, an executive at Keketuohai International Ski Resort told People’s Daily, saying that they expected to receive 300,000 tourists this season, having greeted 2,000 on average every day, since opening its doors for the season in October.

A little more than a year after Qatar hosted a magnificent FIFA World Cup – the first to be held in Middle East – the country is also set to host the Asian Cup from this Friday as Iran, Oman, Australia and Tajikistan were the latest team to arrive on Monday in Doha for continental showpiece.Qatar go into the tournament as defending champions having picked up their first title five years ago with a surprise victory over four-times champions Japan in Abu Dhabi. Following China’s withdrawal as hosts because of its rigid “zero-Covid” policy, Qatar will now also stage the tournament for the third time in its 68-year history.Qatar will be desperate to banish the memory of their miserable World Cup campaign but their preparations have been hit by the departure of coach Carlos Queiroz, who left last month after a year of mixed results.The Maroons take on Lebanon on Friday in the opening game of the 18th edition of the continental championship at the Lusail Stadium, which hosted Argentina’s dramatic World Cup final win over France in December 2022.Iran, a perennial Asian power, reached the semi-finals in 2019 under Queiroz and Amir Ghalenoei has an experienced squad full of players such as Ehsan Hajsafi, Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Mehdi Taremi who play their club football in Europe.Team Melli, who are is scheduled to meet Indonesia in a friendly match – have been drawn in Group C along with Palestine, the UAE and Hong Kong. Ghalenoei’s side will start the campaign with a match against Palestine on January 14.Oman team touched down in Doha with the players arriving in traditional attire. Branko Ivankovic’s men will be in action in Group F along with Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan and Thailand.Oman who are playing in their fifth Asian Cup and the third in a row, take on Saudi Arabia in their opening match on Jan. 16 at the Khalifa International Stadium. They will the face Thailand and Kyrgyzstan on Jan 21 and 25 respectively at the Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium. Oman recorded their best result in the tournament in the UAE in 2019 when they went through to the last 16 before being eliminated by Iran.Tajikistan, meanwhile, are in Group A that includes hosts Qatar, China and Lebanon. This is the first appearance for Tajikistan in the Asian Cup. Croatian coach Petar Segrt is spearheading Tajikistan’s team, who is determined to accomplish a new milestone after he led them to the historic qualification for the continental tournament. He now strives to emphasize that the qualification was not merely a coincidence.Segrt is counting on a contingent of footballers who enjoy high expertise, not to forget that he led Tajikistan to incredibly win the title of the 2022 King’s Cup in Thailand. He also led Afghanistan team in 2015. Tajik team begin their campaign against China on Saturday at Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium.Australia, who also arrived on Monday, could challenge for another title to match their 2015 triumph on home soil if they can build momentum and find enough goals. Their run to the last 16 at the 2022 World Cup was built on a tight-knit squad.

US authorities have appealed for public help as they begin a daylight search near Portland, Oregon, on Sunday for a missing panel that blew off a new Boeing 737 Max 9 jet during a flight on Friday, as operators worldwide ground many of the aircraft for safety checks.The so-called door plug tore off the left side of an Alaska Airlines jet following takeoff from Portland en route to Ontario, California, forcing pilots to turn back and land safely with all 171 passengers and six crew on board, with only a few minor injuries reported.The panel, put in place on some planes in lieu of an additional emergency exit, is likely to have landed somewhere in the western suburbs of Portland, but has not yet been found."I imagine this was a pretty terrifying event. We don't often talk about psychological injuries but I am sure that occurred here," National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Chair Jennifer Homendy told reporters on Saturday, adding that it was too early to say what caused the event.The accident has put Boeing back under scrutiny as it awaits certification of its smaller Max 7 as well as the larger Max 10, which is needed to compete with a hot-selling Airbus model.The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Saturday grounded 171 Boeing jets installed with the same panel after the emergency landing of the plane that had been in service for just eight weeks. The grounding is expected to disrupt flight schedules for several days for certain carriers.The vast majority of that model of plane used in the United States are operated by United Airlines and Alaska Airlines, while Turkish Airlines, Panama's Copa Airlines and Aeromexico also grounded jets for inspections.Airlines must inspect the panel and carry out any necessary repairs. Before US airlines can start flying the planes, the FAA must additionally agree to detailed inspection criteria proposed by Boeing. It was unclear if it would do so on Sunday.Alaska Airlines halted the use of 18 Max 9 planes on Saturday that it had resumed using following earlier maintenance checks on the FAA's order.On Sunday, it canceled 163 flights, or 21%, and said travel disruptions from the grounding are expected to last through at least mid-week. United canceled 230 flights on Sunday, or 8% of scheduled departures.The accident is the second to focus attention on the survivability of cabins coming within days of a collision at Tokyo's Haneda airport involving an Airbus A350 and a Japanese Coast Guard plane. No airline passengers were killed in either accident, though crew on the Coast Guard turboprop died.In the Alaska Airlines emergency, NTSB Chair Homendy said the two seats next to the portion of fuselage that blew out were unoccupied. The independent US agency has opened an investigation."We are very, very fortunate here that this didn't end up in something more tragic," Homendy said. Parts of the seat next to the fuselage, including the head rest, were missing.Portland police and fire departments did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Sunday.The extra exit door is typically installed by low-cost airlines using more seats that require additional evacuation routes. However, those doors are plugged on jets with fewer seats. To passengers, the area looks like a normal window seat.The fuselage for Boeing 737s is made by Kansas-based Spirit AeroSystems, which separated from Boeing in 2005. Spirit manufactured and installed the plug that suffered the blowout, a source told Reuters on Saturday.Sources familiar with the installation process said Boeing also has a potentially key role, since it typically removes the semi-fitted left-side door panel to feed in cabin equipment and speed up production before completing final installation.Investigators are expected to examine whether any installation flaws occurred at Spirit or Boeing plants, sources said.Spirit referred questions to Boeing, which did not respond to a request for comment on whether it had been involved in the final installation.Boeing and Spirit have suffered various production issues as the aerospace industry struggles to get back to normal following the Covid-19 pandemic. On Dec. 28, Boeing urged airlines to inspect all 737 Max jets for a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system.Max planes were grounded worldwide for 20 months after crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia, linked to poorly designed cockpit software, killed nearly 350 people about five years ago.It is also ramping up production to compete with Airbus, which sources say will on Jan. 11 confirm its status as the world's largest planemaker with 735 deliveries last year.

It has now been more than 15 years since the white heat of the global financial crisis, when Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and the Royal Bank of Scotland (among others) failed. At the time, big banks deserved the tidal wave of opprobrium that came their way, and they duly accepted huge increases in capital requirements, dividend bans, and other controls on distributions and pay. Just a few years ago, those who put their heads above the parapet to argue that enough was enough still found bullets whistling past their ears.But has the mood finally changed? Have banks’ political reputations been rehabilitated now that the ravages of financial crisis have receded into the past, and following a pandemic in which they were part of the solution, rather than the origin of the problem? The answers to such questions depend very much on geography.For example, if you are in the US, three notable bank failures in 2023 – Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, and Signature Bank – might lead you to expect that banks are pariahs. But that has not stopped US banks from adopting an aggressive stance in relation to the US Federal Reserve’s proposals for rigorous implementation of the final part of the Basel 3 capital reforms.Regulators have taken to calling these reforms “Basel 3.1,” which suggests that they are just a tidying-up exercise to deal with a few loose ends. But US banks prefer “Basel Endgame,” which has rather different connotations. Whether the reference to Samuel Beckett’s apocalyptic play is deliberate, I could not say; but it certainly ups the ante considerably. The Bank Policy Institute – a banking industry trade group – has been running ads warning that the proposals would saddle families and small businesses with higher borrowing costs, or even a loss of access to credit.It is too soon to say whether the Fed will be moved by this campaign. But it is hard to imagine such a thing in Europe. I strongly doubt that European banks would have the self-confidence to take their arguments about capital requirements – and they do indeed have some – to the court of public opinion, where the jury remains heavily stacked against them.As interest rates have risen, bank profitability has increased after several lean years. Eyeing useful revenues from tax hikes that might even be popular, many European countries have implemented special tax regimes targeting the banking sector. Spain has introduced a tax on revenues, not just profits, and Slovakia recently announced something similar. Italy’s new tax regime is of Byzantine complexity, but will raise some additional income. And Belgium has floated a retail-focused government bond issue explicitly designed to pull deposits out of the banking sector, where, in the government’s view, they were not properly remunerated. The result was something like a government-sponsored bank run.It is no surprise that governments on both the left, as in Spain, and the right, as in Italy, have reached similar conclusions about banking. Socialist voters have never loved bankers, and Europe’s extreme right wing – which is on the rise almost everywhere – has always flirted with rhetoric about banker conspiracies, usually with a Rothschild or two lurking in the shadows.As usual, the United Kingdom is in the middle between the US and Europe. While it has not introduced any new targeted tax increases, it does already have a special bank levy dating back more than a decade. Much of the political pressure recently has focused on the perception that banks have been slow to pass through interest-rate hikes to depositors. Accordingly, the Bank of England’s (BoE) own Basel 3.1 plans are somewhat tougher than those envisaged on the other side of the Channel.Still, the government has taken one measure that is sure to make (a few) bankers happy: it eliminated the restriction on bonuses. In 2014, the European Banking Authority capped bankers’ bonuses at 100% of basic pay, or 200% with explicit shareholder approval. The BoE opposed this policy at the time, arguing that increasing the fixed proportion of investment bankers’ and traders’ pay would make their institutions more vulnerable in a downturn.By removing the cap, the UK will make US banks in London more attractive to recruits than their European counterparts (Barclays will be the only UK bank that is particularly affected, because it is the only one that still has a sizeable investment banking operation). One might therefore have expected EU banks to argue that the cap should be removed across the continent. But, so far, they have held their tongues. Hostility toward bankers remains strong within the European Union, and European Parliament elections are coming in June. A US-style ad campaign demanding seven-figure bonuses for struggling derivatives traders might not generate the desired reaction.So, it looks as though European banks will remain unloved and unfree, while US banks continue to gain market share in Europe, with their share prices (relative to book value) rising significantly higher than those of banks in the EU or the UK. This is hardly ideal. With its economy struggling to recover momentum after Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe needs a competitive banking system. Its regulatory and tax environment ought to be determined by rational analysis, not memories of past sins. Mario Draghi, tasked by the European Commission to explore ways of enhancing the continent’s competitiveness, should bear this point in mind. – Project Syndicatel Howard Davies, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, is Chairman of NatWest Group.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Thursday that he had pencilled in later this year for a general election, as he and his main political rival to be Britain’s next leader effectively kicked off campaigning.The prime minister and opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer both made their first public appearances of 2024, Sunak travelling to Mansfield, in the English Midlands, and Starmer to Bristol, in the West Country.Sunak’s ruling Conservative party has been in power for 14 years but is widely expected to lose the vote, which must be held before the end of January 2025.He has already ruled out leaving it until the last minute to go to the country, not just to secure a fifth consecutive term of office for the Tories but his own mandate with the electorate.The former finance minister was elected in an internal party ballot in October 2022, taking over from the short-lived Liz Truss after Boris Johnson quit following a series of scandals.Speculation has been mounting about when Sunak will decide to hold the election, as he tries to drive down inflation that peaked at nearly 11% and reboot economic growth.“My working assumption is we will have a general election in the second half of this year, because in the meantime I have lots I want to get on with,” Sunak told reporters during a visit to central England. “I want to keep going, managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes...I’ve got lots to get on with.”He refused to rule out holding the poll on May 2 to coincide with local elections but indicated that he wanted more time to get the economy back on an even keel.The Tories, who have had five leaders and prime ministers since they were elected in 2010, are widely expected to lose the election, handing power to Starmer’s Labour.The Conservatives’ years in power have been bookended by economic troubles – first the fall-out from the 2008 global financial crash and latterly a cost-of-living crisis that has sparked widespread industrial unrest.A May election would come soon after the March 6 government budget, when the Tories are tipped to announce tax cuts to woo voters.If Sunak does opt to set the ballot for later in the year, then October is seen as most likely time to avoid clashing with the US election and party conferences.Winter elections are rare in Britain due to weather affecting turnout.Ed Davey, leader of the smaller Liberal Democrat party, said that Sunak had “bottled it” by talking down a spring vote while Starmer accused the PM of “squatting” in Downing Street.“He needs to stop hiding, stop being so weak, stop squatting in Number 10 without a mandate and simply come clean with the public: when will the British people get their say on 14 years of Tory (Conservative) failure?” Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator, asked in a statement. “Even now Rishi Sunak is still leaving himself as much wiggle room as possible. But the reality is clear: the only thing worse than five more months of this Tory government would be five more years.”Labour leader Starmer said he was “ready” for the election and urged Sunak to “bring it on”.The 61-year-old former chief state prosecutor added that the election would offer the UK the chance to “get our future back”, laying out what he called “Project Hope” in a lengthy speech broadcast live on TV news channels.Starmer told voters that the poll would be a choice between “14 years of decline” and “a decade of national renewal”.“This is your year. The chance, finally, to turn the page, lift the weight off our shoulders, unite as a country and get our future back,” he said.His speech was thin on policy detail but he repeated existing pledges to spur higher growth, put more police on Britain’s streets and create a publicly owned clean national energy company.Labour has enjoyed double-digit poll leads for over a year now, putting it on track to become the largest party in parliament, with Starmer as prime minister.He said voters were right to be “angry about what politics has become” following three Conservative prime ministers in little over a year.However, he warned against apathy.“The biggest challenge we face, bar none, (is) the shrug of the shoulder,” said Starmer.Johnson won a landslide victory for the Tories at the last election in December 2019, on a pledge to “get Brexit done”.Britain left the European Union at the start of 2020 before Johnson became mired in scandal, including over rule-breaking lockdown parties during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.On his visit to a community centre in the town of Mansfield, Sunak was asked by a supporter how he could better get his message across to voters, given that his sister, a once loyal Conservative voter, would not back the party this year.“I’m going to be out and about myself talking about it,” Sunak said. “And you will see that from me every single week between now and the next election, out and about talking to people up and down the country about what we are doing to make their lives better.”

Tourists travelling to visit historic French landmarks the Eiffel Tower and Normandy’s Mont Saint Michel have found their doors closed for part of the past two weeks, as striking workers complain of underinvestment and too many visitors.Investment in Mont Saint Michel, a fortified tidal island topped by an abbey, is “not at an appropriate level for this fantastic monument”, one staff representative said.And an Eiffel Tower unionist last week warned that the cost of “major maintenance, renovation and conservation work” is being “underestimated” at the 125-year-old iron structure.In Normandy, Herminia Amador Chacon of the CGT union said Mont Saint Michel workers “all have joint problems in the knees or the ankles” from staffing and guiding visitors around the site, which is accessible only by climbing 350 stairs.Others are posted out in the wet, rainy Channel weather for hours on end, with one reception worker calling the spot “marvellous but badly heated”.Only around 15 of the Mont Saint Michel’s 55 workers have walked out since the open-ended strike began on December 26.But that has been enough to shut the gates of the abbey — one of France’s most visited monuments, with around 1.5mn tourists per year — many days since.Lise, 25, and Thomas, 24, had travelled the 70km from Norman town Flers to visit on Wednesday, only to find a sign saying the abbey was only open between 1pm and 5pm.While “a little disappointed”, the pair judged the staff could not “be on strike over nothing”.Worker representatives at Mont Saint Michel are asking for more staff, extra pay for those with foreign language skills and compensation for the physically demanding parts of the job, as well as better facilities on site.Abbey general secretary Arnaud Noblet said extra staff were already on hand during the busy summer season and a small number of new jobs were being created. He dismissed the idea that spending on the abbey was not in line with revenues.Pooling of resources among landmarks managed by the Centre for National Monuments (CMN) authority means “major monuments like the abbey keep the small ones alive”, Noblet said.In Paris, strikers among the Eiffel Tower’s 360-strong workforce said they had walked out for one day on December 27 to protest against “unrealistic management” with “over-ambitious, impossible-to-achieve” business goals.“The Eiffel Tower is an old lady. It’s 130 years old. Some of the lifts date back to 1899. There’s a lot of work (to be done),” the workers said.They added that managers’ projections of 7.4mn visitors per year were unrealistic — the tower hosted 5.9mn in 2022 — leaving a funding gap that workers believe has management firm SETE “heading for disaster”.But SETE boss Jean-Francois Martins said the Eiffel Tower was “in good economic shape”, even after the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation hit renovation costs.He said he believed workers fear jobs could be cut to make up for pandemic-era losses.Italian tourist Alessandro Monaco, 40, was disappointed.“We were quite stunned to see there was a strike. It’s a real shame not to be able to visit today,” he told AFP on the day of the stoppage last week.Others were more sanguine.“The important thing is to see it, strike or no strike,” said 40-year-old French visitor Marie-Christine Riviere.While the Eiffel Tower strike on December 27 lasted for just one day, “if the situation continues...the Eiffel Tower will be closed during the Olympic Games period” in July-August, worker representatives warned.

The narrative that China’s economy is nearing its peak – or has already reached it – has taken hold in Western media. But if you read the doomsayers’ analyses carefully, you will find that many of the reasons they give for their bleak assessments are not new. On the contrary, they tend to highlight precisely the same challenges that economists and commentators have been harping on for at least a decade or longer. If China was not sputtering then, why should we believe it is now?To be sure, the global context has changed. Perhaps most important, the prevailing narrative about China has turned largely negative, and the West is now far more hostile toward it than it was ten or even five years ago. With the United States working harder than ever to contain China, direct Chinese exports to the US have fallen.Even so, the “decoupling” of the world’s two largest economies is probably overstated. A recent study by University of California San Diego economist Caroline Freund and her colleagues shows that the US and China are indeed reducing their engagement in some areas. For example, US import growth from China lagged well behind US import growth from other countries for products subject to US tariffs.But the same study also found that US and Chinese supply chains remain deeply intertwined, especially for “strategic products.” Moreover, the countries from which US imports are growing are often deeply – and increasingly – embedded in Chinese supply chains. In fact, countries seeking to displace China in US supply chains have been increasing their own imports from China, especially in strategic industries.At the same time, global firms appear to be pursuing a “China+1” strategy, investing in other countries in addition to – but not instead of – China. Chinese companies, for their part, have increased their foreign direct investment in recent years and deployed their own production chains far beyond China’s borders, especially to countries that can avoid punitive US tariffs. This trend is likely to persist, ensuring that Chinese capital continues to flow to the rest of the world.The doomsayers would likely point out that China is also facing domestic challenges. Beyond unfavourable demographics, China is also grappling with issues like large debts, misallocation of capital, severe pollution, and a troubled property sector. But China’s government has been clearly aware of these problems – and committed to addressing them – for a decade.China’s programme of “supply-side structural reform,” for instance, took shape in 2015 and included tighter financial regulations and increased government supervision of – and intervention in – highly leveraged sectors with excess production capacity. While the programme helped to prevent a debt or financial crisis, it also constrained growth in many highly leveraged industries, such as real estate. But the view that a sluggish property sector will trigger China’s economic collapse is overly dramatic.Chinese policymakers understand that a transition is inevitable in the real-estate sector, and are committed to ensuring that it occurs smoothly. More broadly, the structural reforms that have already been implemented have boosted China’s economic resilience, and, despite US tariffs, Chinese exports have remained robust. Meanwhile, new sectors – from services to the digital economy and high-tech industries – have been growing fast.All of this helps to explain why China achieved 6.6% three-year-average growth in 2017-19. While the Covid-19 pandemic slashed growth in 2020, the economy rebounded strongly in 2021, growing at a rate of 8.1%. And the growth rate in 2023 is most likely to be slightly over 5%; even a round of lockdowns in 2022 did not prevent growth.This does not mean that China emerged from the pandemic unscathed. Three years of reduced opportunities to generate income limited Chinese consumers’ ability to fuel a rapid post-pandemic recovery. The government must now redouble its efforts to support domestic demand and job creation by pursuing more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies over the next two years.Chinese policymakers must also work to accelerate the liberalisation of some industries. For example, productive services where private and foreign capital is barred from entering must be freed of these restrictions as soon as possible. Fortunately, there are signs that the authorities are aware of this imperative: financial regulators just granted a bank-card-clearing license to the US firm Mastercard. China also unilaterally introduced visa-free entry for six countries – including France, Germany, and Italy – last month.Nobody expected China to sustain double-digit growth forever. Capital accumulation was always going to slow, and the early dividend generated from structural drivers of growth were always going to weaken. Now, economic growth will require higher shares of spending on household consumption, rather than on investment.That is why China’s government is expected urgently to reduce the share of investment in GDP and support household consumption, such as through income transfers and stronger welfare programmes (which would enable households to reduce precautionary savings). This will create a prosperous domestic market, encourage the expansion of the service industry, and support the shift to sustainable growth.China’s economy has not exhausted its development potential, nor has it matured to the point that it has lost its vitality. While the economy’s current status has made rebalancing possible, it also opens a time window for China’s leadership to commit to carrying out structural reform. Certainly, growth has been slowing down and the global context has changed, creating a sense of urgency. But this is likely to work in the country’s favour, accelerating the structural reforms that its emerging growth model needs.— Project SyndicateZhang Jun, Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University, is Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think-tank.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting labour market conditions remain fairly tight even as demand for workers is easing.With the report from the Labor Department yesterday also showing the number of people on unemployment rolls remained elevated towards the end of December, financial markets continued to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March.The government reported on Wednesday that job openings fell to near a three-year low in November. Labour market strength is expected to again shield the economy from recession this year.“The labour market is not too hot and not too cold at the moment,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “The total number of Americans on the jobless rolls receiving benefits remains elevated relative to prior year levels, but at the moment there is not enough unemployment to say the economy is on the downward slope to recession.”Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Dec 30, the lowest level since mid-October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 216,000 claims for the latest week.Claims data tend to be volatile around this time of year because of holidays. They have largely bounced around in the lower end of their 194,000-265,000 range for 2023.Unadjusted claims fell 6,820 to 268,020 last week. Claims plunged by 7,572 in California and tumbled 6,080 in Texas. That helped to more than offset notable increases in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts and Connecticut.The labour market is steadily cooling following 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022. The unemployment rate, however, has remained below 4% as companies hoard workers following difficulties finding labour in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.Low layoffs were underscored by a separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday that showed job cuts announced by US-based employers dropped 24% to 34,817 in December.Planned layoffs, however, jumped 98% to 721,677 in 2023, the highest annual count since 2020. That largely reflected cuts earlier in the year, with most of them in the technology, retail, healthcare and media sectors. Excluding the pandemic, it was the highest tally since 2009.Financial markets are betting the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as March. Minutes of the US central bank’s December 12-13 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed officials viewed the labour market as remaining tight, but also continuing to “come into better balance.” They also showed that “several participants noted the risk that, if labour demand were to weaken substantially further, the labour market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.” The US central bank held its policy rate steady in the current 5.25-5.50% range at last month’s meeting and policymakers signalled in new economic projections that the historic monetary policy tightening engineered over the last two years is at an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024.The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 31,000 to 1.855mn during the week ending December 23, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims have mostly increased since mid-September, a trend blamed largely on difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations after an unprecedented surge in filings early in the pandemic.Economists expect the distortion will be smoothed out when the government revises the data this year.The claims data have no bearing on the Labor Department’s employment report for December, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, as they fall outside the survey period. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after rising by 199,000 jobs inNovember.The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 3.8% from 3.7% in November.