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During the years of low inflation and zero or negative interest rates, many central banks joined the fight against climate change and started experimenting with various tools such as special loans, asset purchases, and collateral requirements biased toward “green” investments. But with the return of inflation, monetary policymakers have grown more cautious.Presumably, they are eager to demonstrate that price stability is their primary focus, implying that when inflation is persistently above target, climate policy matters less. But a firm commitment to price stability does not require central banks to drop green-oriented monetary policies altogether. Since today’s central banks have more than one instrument at their disposal, hiking interest rates to fight inflation can, in principle, go hand in hand with targeted green policies. The question is how to do it now that central banks’ balance sheets are supposed to be shrinking.Moreover, the return of inflation does not alter the original case for green monetary policymaking. Central banks still have two good reasons to remain committed. First, they need to account for climate change in order to manage their own portfolio risk. With regulators and supervisors asking the financial sector to do this, it is only natural that central banks should do it, too.Public authorities have drawn up new guidelines for the private sector because they recognise that climate risks are financially significant, and that limiting exposure to fossil-fuel assets is fully consistent with traditional risk-management criteria. This is especially true for larger portfolios, and notwithstanding the recent decline in central banks’ holdings, their assets worldwide still total around $40tn.The second reason is that in most countries central banks are mandated to support the general objectives of their governments in guaranteeing citizens’ welfare, as long as doing so doesn’t interfere with price stability. Supporting the green transition therefore should figure prominently within any framework that rigorously assesses the potential trade-offs between price stability and economic policymaking.Central to this process is the concept of “double materiality”, which holds that you should do what you can to have an impact, and not focus solely on mitigating your own financial risks. Although central banks are not in charge of industrial policy, they do have tools to allocate capital within their normal operations, and these are already in use in many countries.When the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) reviewed current policies for eight case studies in Asia and Europe, it found that most green measures were motivated by the aim of mitigating climate change, rather than risk management. For example, in 2021, the Hungarian central bank loaned Ft300bn ($825mn) to credit institutions at 0% interest on the condition that this funding be lent to households for the construction or purchase of new, energy-efficient residential real estate.Similarly, in 2021, the Bank of Japan introduced a programme that provides 0% interest loans to financial institutions to fund investments or loans that contribute to Japan’s climate goals. The People’s Bank of China has also launched two targeted lending facilities to motivate financial institutions to back emissions-reduction projects; and other major central banks, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, have rolled out special corporate-bond purchase programs that favour stronger climate performers.The NGFS’s findings point to an accumulation of valuable experience in green policymaking by central banks. Though there are relevant differences across these institutions, they collectively represent a huge amount of fire power.But won’t central banks have to shrink their balance sheets, and won’t that harm their green-related financing? Not necessarily, because with interest rates on reserves, a central bank can, in principle, increase rates to tame inflation while still maintaining a large balance sheet. The US Federal Reserve has already opted to maintain a system of ample reserves, and since its liabilities will remain large even when inflation is on target, these will have to be matched by large assets.Under this framework, central banks that have adopted a double-materiality approach can aim for an asset portfolio that is consistent with their government’s climate and industrial policies. In making the choice between larger or smaller balance sheets, they should consider the longer-run advantages of supporting green financing.To be sure, some will object to any policy that encourages central banks to leave a large footprint in markets, or that tasks unelected officials with what looks dangerously close to an industrial policy. We have all heard the argument: “Central banks are doing too much and risking their independence.”But climate change is the existential problem for all of humanity. At a moment when the private sector is withdrawing resources from climate funds and public finances are constrained everywhere, the idea that central banks can play a larger role should not be discarded. The devil, of course, will be in the details. Transparency and careful management of trade-offs will be crucial. – Project SyndicateLucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

The war in Ukraine and the looming US presidential election dominated a Nato summit in Washington this month but, away from the public stage, the alliance’s military planners have been focused on assessing the enormous cost of fixing Europe’s creaking defences. Nato leaders agreed plans last year for the biggest overhaul in three decades of its defence capabilities, amid growing fears of Russian aggression.Behind the scenes, officials have since been poring over the minimum defence requirements to achieve those plans, which were sent to national governments in recent weeks, according to one military planner, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The minimum requirements detail the shortfalls in Nato armies in key areas, providing a rough indication of how many billions of euros it could cost to fix, the military planner said. Nato aims to convert these requirements into binding targets for individual governments to provide for the defence of Europe by autumn 2025, when it holds a regular meeting of defence ministers.Reuters spoke to 12 military and civilian officials in Europe about the classified plans, who outlined six areas the 32-nation alliance has identified as the most pressing to address.These include shortages in air defences and long-range missiles, troop numbers, ammunition, logistical headaches and a lack of secure digital communications on the battlefield, the conversations with Nato officials showed. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters more freely. Nato hasn’t publicly given an estimate of the overall costs.The findings show Nato faces a slog to achieve its goals at a time when its unity could be tested by budgetary constraints among senior European members, and differences over how hawkish its stance on Russia should be.Crucially, this year’s US presidential election has raised the spectre that Nato’s preeminent power may be led by a man critical of the alliance — former president Donald Trump — who has accused European partners of taking advantage of US military support.At the July 9-11 Washington summit, some European policymakers publicly acknowledged that, regardless of who wins November’s election, the continent will need to hike its military spending.“We need to recognise that for America, whatever the result of the presidential election, the priority is increasingly going to shift to the Indo-Pacific, so that the European nations in Nato must do more of the heavy lifting,” British Defence Secretary John Healey said on the sidelines of the summit.In response to Reuters’ questions, a Nato official said the alliance’s leaders had agreed in Washington that in many cases expenditure beyond 2% of GDP would be needed to remedy shortfalls. He noted that 23 members now meet the 2% minimum requirement, or exceed it.“Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, European Allies will need to continue to increase their defence capabilities, forces’ readiness and ammunition stocks,” the Nato official said.Nato is at its highest alert stage since the Cold War, with its more pessimistic officials, including German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, warning that an attack by Russia on its borders could happen within five years.While the Russian economy is already on a war footing, European governments may face resistance if they demand more money for defence spending from taxpayers reeling from a cost-of-living squeeze to prepare for a war that seems a distant prospect to many, analysts say.“We may expect to see a political backlash materialise, especially if politicians try to explain away cuts elsewhere with increased defence budgets,” Eurointelligence, a news and analysis service focused on the EU, said in a July 12 note.Nato’s first serious overhaul since the end of the Cold War will pivot the alliance back to the defence of Europe against a possible Russian attack, after years of more distant missions in the likes of Afghanistan.Reuters has previously reported that Nato planners believe it will need between 35 and 50 extra brigades to withstand a Russian attack. A brigade consists of 3,000-7,000 troops, which would mean anywhere from 105,000-350,000 soldiers.It means, for example, that Germany would need 3-5 extra brigades or 20,000-30,000 additional combat troops, the source said, effectively one more division on top of the three divisions Berlin is working to equip at the moment.The defence ministry in Berlin declined to comment on classified plans. Echoing US officials, many European policymakers — including Britain’s Healey — are already saying that defence spending will have to top the alliance’s current target of 2% of GDP.Tuuli Duneton, undersecretary for defence policy in Estonia — one of Europe’s most hawkish governments — suggested in an online briefing on July 2 ahead of the Washington gathering that next year’s Nato summit should discuss raising the spending goal to either 2.5% or 3%.The US is by far the largest contributor to Nato operations. According to Nato estimates published in June, the US will spend $967.7bn on defence in 2024, roughly 10 times as much as Germany, the second-largest spending country, with $97.7bn. Total Nato military expenditures for 2024 are estimated at $1,474.4bn. Trump’s selection in July of Senator J D Vance as his vice-presidential running partner — who opposes aid to Ukraine and has criticised Nato partners as “welfare clients” — stirred concern in some European capitals.Lieutenant Colonel Charlie Dietz, a Pentagon spokesperson, said the US supported European allies’ efforts to increasing defence spending to at least the 2% of GDP target, and noted they had already made significant progress in boosting budgets.“Nato’s regional defence plans involve enhancing readiness and flexibility across the Alliance. We remain committed to contributing significantly to these efforts,” Dietz told Reuters.Under the new defence plans, Germany will need to quadruple its air defences — not just the number of Patriot batteries but also shorter-range systems — to protect bases, ports and more than 100,000 troops expected to cross the country on their way to the eastern flank in the event of severe tensions or a war, one security source told Reuters.Germany had 36 Patriot air defence units when it was Nato’s frontline state during the Cold War and even then it relied on support from Nato allies. Today, German forces are down to 9 Patriot units, after donating three to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022 and need to drastically scale up.The cost will be considerable. Berlin just ordered four Patriot units at a price tag of 1.35bn euros. In a sign of the budgetary challenges already weighing on Europe’s largest economy, Germany is planning to halve its 2025 military aid to Ukraine. Berlin instead hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven, Reuters reported.Logistics planners are getting down to brass tacks, working out how to transport food, fuel and water to troops along a supply line, a senior Nato official said, with a second official pointing out that a reverse flow of wounded troops and prisoners of war will also have to be organised.“They are developing the maps in granular detail with allies,” the official said, making sure, for example, that bridges were sturdy enough to bear heavy military loads.Another military planning source sketched out a scenario where enemy forces might target the US air base in Ramstein in southwest Germany, or North Sea ports such as Bremerhaven through which Nato forces would travel en route to Poland.“How do I protect those masses so that they don’t turn into valuable targets?” the source said. “Otherwise, they will be the first and the last Americans to deploy here.” Whereas tens of thousands of Nato and Soviet troops faced off directly along the inner-German border during the Cold War, deploying troops now will take longer with the frontline of any conflict likely to be further east — up to 60 days, including the time to get a political decision, according to the first military planner.Europe does not have enough rail capacity to move tanks, and railway gauges vary between Germany and ex-Soviet Baltic states, meaning weapons and equipment would have to be loaded onto different trains.The first Nato planning official said cyber defences need to be strengthened to protect against a hacking attack that could affect possible deployments, for example, in Poland that could jam railways switches and halt troop movements eastward.That makes speedy decision-making and a reliable checklist of red flags, indicating an imminent Russian attack, essential.Nato planners have sharpened a double-digit number of early warning indicators of what might constitute the precursor to a full-blown Russian invasion, the first Nato planning source told Reuters, without providing further details.Europe would need to be prepared to “bare its teeth” and move combat-ready troops right up to the potential frontline in response to Russian military movements if needed as a deterrent, but also to pick up the fight instantly should tensions turn into a war, the planning source said. – Reuters

A Taiwanese startup aims to become the first foreign firm to launch a rocket from Japan by early next year, part of a plan industry advocates say will aid Tokyo’s ambitions of becoming a space hub in Asia.The planned suborbital launch by TiSpace has faced regulatory hurdles and delays amid questions over whether Japan should embrace overseas business as part of its effort to double the size of its 4tn yen ($26bn) space industry over the next decade.The private firm, co-founded in 2016 by current and former officials from Taiwan’s space agency, has not had a successful launch. Its most recent attempt to fly a rocket, via its sister company AtSpace in Australia in 2022, failed because of an oxidiser leak. The rocket to be tested in Japan is a different design.“This (planned launch) should be a very good case for the Japanese government,” TiSpace chairman Yen-sen Chen told Reuters in an interview. “If that goes smoothly, then you will attract more customers from other countries.” He said the firm is waiting on one last regulatory approval, a radio permit that will enable the launch of the company’s 12m (39ft) sounding rocket, which he hopes will occur by early 2025. A sounding rocket can reach space but does not achieve orbit.Some analysts have said launching a Taiwanese rocket in Japan might draw the attention of China, which claims Taiwan as its own over the strong objections of the government in Taipei, and monitors the island’s advancements in missile-related technologies. But so far, Chen said, he had not heard any concerns.China’s foreign ministry said it was “not aware of the relevant circumstances” of the launch.Japan’s Cabinet Office said “free economic and research activities are guaranteed in Japan within the scope of laws and regulations”. An official from Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Japan met with TiSpace in March 2023 in what the embassy called a “courtesy visit” but the embassy declined to comment further, saying the launch was a private-sector matter.TiSpace is the only Taiwanese company attempting launches. One of the company’s other co-founders, Wu Jong-shinn, is now the head of Taiwan’s space agency. The agency declined to comment on its relationship with TiSpace and said all its launch services are conducted through public tender.The company’s endeavour has won support among Japanese space businesses, especially in the remote agricultural town of Taiki, on the northern island of Hokkaido, which will host the launch. Officials and experts cite the benefits of inviting foreign companies.Yuko Nakagawa, a ruling-party lawmaker representing Taiki and neighbouring communities, said TiSpace’s project was “a symbol of Taiwan-Japan friendship” and a tailwind for an international business complex that local officials call a “space Silicon Valley”.Japan wants its private space industry to be worth more than $50bn by the early 2030s, launch 30 rockets a year and become Asia’s space transportation hub, according to the latest government plans.Jun Kazeki, the top official overseeing Japan’s space strategy in the Cabinet Office, declined to comment on TiSpace’s plans. There may be “future possibilities to utilise overseas transportation technologies”, but Japanese rockets are the government’s priority, he said.Government launches are typically carried out by Japanese-built boosters such as the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H3. Private satellite operators often use foreign launch companies such as SpaceX and ArianeGroup outside Japan.A senior Japanese official involved in the space sector cautioned that a foreign company launching orbital payloads from Japan would require close government scrutiny and high regulatory hurdles.Because Japan’s Space Activities Act does not govern sub-orbital launches such as TiSpace’s, the central government does not need to give final approval for the launch. Tokyo plans to change that law to encompass suborbital flights and reusable rockets, but revisions are expected to take years.Motoko Mizuno, an opposition lawmaker and former official at JAXA, the country’s space agency, said she was cautious about Japan opening up to foreign companies, with which local launchers might not be able to compete on price.Japan is negotiating a space technology safeguards agreement with the US that could also pave the way for US commercial launches in Japan.Although JAXA has launched domestically developed rockets for decades, the country’s private rocket industry is nascent.Space One, backed by Aerospace giant IHI, saw its rocket blow up during its inaugural launch in March. Taiki-based Interstellar Technologies in 2019 became the first Japanese firm to have a sounding rocket reach space but has not followed up with an orbital launch.Yoshinori Odagiri, the chief executive of Space Cotan, which operates the Hokkaido Spaceport in Taiki, said a couple of European companies have expressed interest in its launch complex.Tadashi Morimitsu, a local official in southwestern Oita prefecture, another budding space hub in Japan, which is partnering with US spaceplane company Sierra Space, said TiSpace’s progress in Hokkaido encapsulates a “welcome phenomenon” of overseas space businesses using Japanese spaceports.Globally, more than 50 spaceports are being built, but “they may end up with maybe five to 10 which can be truly successful and self sustaining in the long term”, said Boston Consulting Group principal Alessio Bonucci.If TiSpace’s test launch is successful, the company said it plans to expand its manufacturing capacity in Japan to serve Japanese customers.One such potential client, Hokkaido-based Letara, has already inquired about whether TiSpace can carry its satellite propulsion system to space for testing.“We don’t ask if the company is domestic or foreign, as long as they can launch,” said Letara co-founder Shota Hirai. – Reuters

The Philippine Coast Guard yesterday raced to offload 1.4mn litres of industrial fuel oil from a sunken tanker and prevent an “environmental catastrophe” in Manila Bay.One crew member died when the MT Terra Nova sank in rough seas nearly 7km off Limay municipality early Thursday after setting out for the central city of Iloilo.An oil slick stretching several kilometres was detected in the waterway, which thousands of fishermen and tourism operators rely on for their livelihoods.Coast guard spokesman Rear Admiral Armando Balilo said yesterday the spill was “minimal” and that it appeared to be diesel fuel used to power the tanker and not the industrial fuel oil cargo.“No oil has been leaking from the tank itself, so we’re racing against time to siphon the oil so we can avoid the environmental catastrophe,” Balilo said.The coast guard has set a target of seven days to offload the cargo and prevent what Balilo warned would be the worst oil spill in Philippine history if it were to leak.Journalists at the Port of Limay in Bataan province watched coast guard personnel load oil dispersant and a suction skimmer onto a boat to be used against the slick.Balilo said oil spill containment booms had also been deployed in preparation “for the worst case scenario” of the industrial fuel oil leaking before it could be offloaded.Once the weather improved, coast guard divers would inspect the position of the tanker so the “siphoning operation” could get under way, he said.The coast guard met with representatives of the MT Terra Nova’s owner and a contracted salvage company yesterday to discuss the timeline.“There’s nothing to be worried about for now, but we should not be complacent,” Balilo said.The incident happened as heavy rains fuelled by Typhoon Gaemi and the seasonal monsoon lashed Manila and surrounding regions in recent days.After setting out late Wednesday, the captain decided to abort the journey to Iloilo due to rough seas.Balilo said investigators were seeking to verify testimony from the crew that the vessel was damaged as it tried to turn back and had to be towed by another ship.Somehow the tow line was cut and the MT Terra Nova “lost control” in the large waves and went down, he said.“We will see if there were protocols violated or if there was a lapse in decision-making,” Balilo said.

Qatar’s smart home market, valued at “$68.1mn” in 2024, is expected to reach “$116.7mn” by 2028, according to a Cityscape Qatar report that delves into several “trends reshaping the future.”“The household penetration will be 17.3% this year and 27.6% in four years,” stated the report, which discusses how tech-powered homes are transforming everyday life in Qatar. The influx of technological innovations has had a profound impact on the way we live our lives, on so many levels, starting with our homes.“Smart living is becoming a growing trend, thanks to the convenience and security smart homes offer. In addition, energy-efficient smart homes can also contribute significantly to sustainability,” reported Cityscape Qatar, the country’s real estate event slated from October 15 to 17 at the Doha Exhibition and Convention Centre (DECC).Citing a report by Statista, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) smart home market will generate revenue worth “$754.9mn” in 2024. In four years, the expected market volume “will be an impressive $1.16bn.” Similarly, Research and Markets also reported that GCC smart home industry-related projects could reach “$1.11bn” by 2028.“Based on Statista Market Insights’ March 2024 data, security solutions make up the biggest share of the market. The demand for smart appliances and control and connectivity solutions is also strong. There’s also growing interest in smart gadgets that aid energy management, underscoring the country’s commitment to going green,” the Cityscape Qatar report stated.An SNS Insider report highlighted key factors that have been driving the growth of the smart home market.“Smart houses are intended to automate different household appliances and gadgets through the use of an in-built monitoring system, providing occupants with convenience, safety, efficiency, and security.“Lighting, security, temperature, and audio/video systems may all be monitored and controlled by a single interface system. Smart homes prioritise security, and modern security systems may inform homeowners of intruders and give room-by-room video even when they are not there,” the market research firm stated.In Qatar, smart home solutions providers like QSmart Soug and Al-Tamyeez Security Company are offering products to help transform Qatari homes, according to Cityscape Qatar.“The most common offerings include a suite of security-enhancing solutions, such as smart locks and surveillance systems. Automation systems designed to control lighting, temperature, curtains and entertainment - are also part of their catalogues.As these products are often accessible via smartphones, tablets, or voice commands, they help make everyday living more efficient and convenient. However, smart homes aren’t just about automating some aspects of domestic life. As stated, they can also promote energy efficiency and support a greener lifestyle,” Cityscape Qatar further reported.Citing initiatives in Qatar, the report stated that the country has been showcasing its commitment to expanding its smart home market over the past years. Apart from the emergence of smart home solutions providers, Qatar has seen global brands with local operations do their part in advancing this market, according to the report.“For instance, back in 2020, Vodafone Qatar unveiled its Digital Smart Home Consultancy to cater to customers seeking expert advice on smart home technology. The British telecom company has its own array of smart home devices - such as smart cameras and sensors - supported by a Wi-Fi mesh system.“Through this endeavour, Digital Smart Home Consultants customise smart home setups based on individual customer needs. Meanwhile, earlier in May, Schneider Electric and Msheireb Properties, Qatar’s leading sustainable property developer, inked a deal to explore smart city capabilities at Msheireb Downtown Doha,” the report stated.

Ethiopia announced three days of mourning following a devastating landslide in a southern remote part of the country where more than 250 people lost their lives.Rescuers are continuing the grim search for bodies in the tiny locality of Kencho Shacha Gozdi, while distraught survivors bury those who perished in the disaster, the deadliest landslide on record in the Horn of Africa nation.UN humanitarian agency OCHA, citing local authorities, said on Thursday that 257 people have died and warned the toll could reach 500."The House of Peoples' Representatives has announced a three-day national mourning for the people who lost their lives in the landslide accident," Ethiopia's parliament said, adding that it would start from Saturday.The period of remembrance would allow "comfort to their relatives and all the people of our country," added the statement, shared by the state-run Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission said earlier Friday that humanitarian aid and rehabilitation was "well under way" in the region.It said a "structure for emergency disaster response coordination and integration" had been established, putting the number of people needing to be relocated at 6,000.OCHA had said more than 15,000 people need to be evacuated because of the risk of further landslides, including small children and thousands of pregnant women or new mothers.Aid had begun arriving, it said, including four trucks from the Ethiopian Red Cross Society.Officials said most of the victims were buried when they rushed to help after a first landslide, which followed heavy rains Sunday in the area that lies about 480 kilometres from the capital Addis Ababa.International offers of condolences have flooded in, including from the African Union, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is Ethiopian.Africa's second most populous nation is often afflicted by climate-related disasters and more than 21mn people or about 18% of the population rely on humanitarian aid as a result of conflict, flooding or drought.

Earnings expectations and the interim dividend announcements were seen lifting the sentiments in the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE), which closed this week on a higher note, even as shakers outnumbered movers.The telecom and banking counters witnessed higher than average demand as the 20-stock Qatar Index rose 0.64% this week which saw the International Monetary Fund say that the World Cup has accelerated Qatar’s economic diversification into non-hydrocarbon sectors and the newly created infrastructure can be leveraged to chart a new path for diversification in sectors beyond the oil and gas industries for further economic growth.The bullish grip of the Arab individuals was instrumental in lifting the overall mood in the main bourse this week which saw Doha Bank report QR432.33mn net profit in the first half (H1) of 2024.The domestic institutions’ weakened net profit booking had its influence in the main market this week, which saw Vodafone Qatar ring in net profit of QR293.17mn in H1-2024.The foreign institutions continued to be net buyers but with lesser intensity in the main bourse this week which saw Aamal Company’s H1-2024 net profit at QR188.36mn.However, the local retail investors were increasingly bearish in the main market this week which saw Commercial Bank closes $500mn syndicated loan facility.The Gulf funds were seen increasingly into net profit booking in the main bourse this week which saw United Development Company register net profit of QR145mn in H1-204.The Gulf retail investors were also seen increasingly net sellers in the main market this week which saw a total of 0.01mn Masraf Al Rayan-sponsored exchange-traded fund QATR worth QR0.03mn trade across 10 deals.The foreign individuals were increasingly net profit takers in the main bourse this week which saw as many as 0.01mn Doha Bank-sponsored exchange-traded fund QETF valued at QR0.09mn change hands across nine transactions.The Islamic index was seen gaining slower than the other indices in the main market this week which saw the banks and consumer goods sectors together constitute about 52% of the total trade volumes.Market capitalisation gained QR4.68bn or 0.81% to QR584.94bn on the back of mid and small cap segments this week, which saw no trading of sovereign bonds.Trade turnover and volumes were on the decline in the main market this week which saw no trading of treasury bills.In the case of venture market, trade turnover and volumes were on a slippery path this week, which saw Baladna report net profit of QR100.42mn in H1-204.The Total Return Index rose 0.69%, the All Share Index by 0.83% and the All Islamic Index by 0.24% this week which saw Gulf Warehousing’s net profit at QR100.35mn in H1-2024.The telecom sector index shot up 1.73%, banks and financial services (1.59%), insurance (0.33%), industrials (0.17%) and transport (0.02%); while real estate declined 1.67% and consumer goods and services 0.34% this week which saw Lesha Bank announce net profit of QR54.13mn in H1-2024.Major shakers in the main bourse included QLM, Baladna, QNB, Ooredoo, QIIB, Inma Holding, Qatar Industrial Manufacturing, Industries Qatar and Milaha. In the venture market, Al Mahhar Holding saw its shares appreciate in value this week which saw global credit rating agency Capital Intelligence (CI) affirm Qatar's long-term (LT) foreign currency rating and LT local currency rating at ‘AA’.Nevertheless, Ezdan, Doha Bank, Qatari Investors Group, Medicare Group, Woqod, Widam Food, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding, Qamco, Mazaya Qatar and Nakilat were among the losers in the main market. In the junior bourse, Techno Q saw its shares depreciate in value this week which saw CI forecast that Qatar's short-to-medium-term growth outlook remains “relatively favourable” with real gross domestic product slated to grow by an average of 3.3% in 2024-26.The Arab retail investors turned net buyers to the tune of QR8.47mn against net profit takers of QR12.68mn the week ended July 18.The domestic funds’ net selling declined significantly to QR40.71mn compared to QR70.73mn the previous week.However, the local individuals’ net profit booking grew substantially to QR56.17mn against QR35.41mn a week ago.The Gulf institutions’ net selling expanded marginally to QR29.27mn compared to QR28.74mn the week ended July 18.The foreign retail investors’ net profit booking grew marginally to QR11.97mn against QR11.51mn the previous week.The Gulf individuals’ net selling shrank strengthened markedly to QR6.08mn compared to QR2.66mn a week ago.The foreign institutions’ net buying decreased noticeably to QR135.74mn against QR161.75mn the week ended July 18.The Arab institutions had no major net exposure compared with net profit takers of QR0.02mn the previous week.The main market witnessed a 33% plunge in trade volumes to 545.53mn shares, 29% in value to QR1.45bn and 26% in deals to 58,573 this week.In the venture market, trade volumes tanked 54% to 3mn equities, value by 54% to QR5.91mn and transactions by 38% to 312.

Climate change is driving changes in rainfall patterns across the world, scientists said in a paper published yesterday, which could also be intensifying typhoons and other tropical storms.Taiwan, the Philippines and then China were lashed by the year's most powerful typhoon this week, with schools, businesses and financial markets shut as wind speeds surged up to 227kph.On China's eastern coast, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated ahead of landfall on Thursday.Stronger tropical storms are part of a wider phenomenon of weather extremes driven by higher temperatures, scientists say.Researchers led by Zhang Wenxia at the China Academy of Sciences studied historical meteorological data and found about 75% of the world's land area had seen a rise in "precipitation variability" or wider swings between wet and dry weather.Warming temperatures have enhanced the ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture, which is causing wider fluctuations in rainfall, the researchers said in a paper published by the Science journal."(Variability) has increased in most places, including Australia, which means rainier rain periods and drier dry periods," said Steven Sherwood, a scientist at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, who was not involved in the study."This is going to increase as global warming continues, enhancing the chances of droughts and/or floods."Scientists believe that climate change is also reshaping the behaviour of tropical storms, including typhoons, making them less frequent but more powerful."I believe higher water vapour in the atmosphere is the ultimate cause of all of these tendencies toward more extreme hydrologic phenomena," Sherwood said.Typhoon Gaemi, which first made landfall in Taiwan on Wednesday, was the strongest to hit the island in eight years.While it is difficult to attribute individual weather events to climate change, models predict that global warming makes typhoons stronger, said Sachie Kanada, a researcher at Japan's Nagoya University."In general, warmer sea surface temperature is a favourable condition for tropical cyclone development," she said.In its "blue paper" on climate change published this month, China said the number of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea had declined significantly since the 1990s, but they were getting stronger.Taiwan also said in its climate change report published in May that climate change was likely to reduce the overall number of typhoons in the region while making each one more intense.The decrease in the number of typhoons is due to the uneven pattern of ocean warming, with temperatures rising faster in the western Pacific than the east, said Feng Xiangbo, a tropical cyclone research scientist at the University of Reading.Water vapour capacity in the lower atmosphere is expected to rise by 7% for each 1 degree Celsius increase in temperatures, with tropical cyclone rainfall in the US surging by as much as 40% for each single degree rise, he said.

Record heavy rain forced the evacuation of thousands of people across parts of northern Japan and killed at least two, as rivers burst their banks washing away bridges and cars, officials and media reports said yesterday.A rescuer is among the dead after the downpours in Yamagata and Akita prefectures on the main island of Honshu. Two other people, including another rescuer, are missing.In Yamagata, where two rivers burst their banks, one police officer in his 20s who had been searching for a missing person was found "submerged" and later confirmed dead, a local police spokesman said.Another police officer also tasked with a search operation, remains unaccounted for, the spokesman said.In northern Akita region, one body was also found, media reports said, with police trying to ascertain whether it was that of an 86-year-old man earlier reported missing.A man in his 60s also remains missing after a landslide at roadworks in Akita's Yuzawa city, according to media.Two parts of Yamagata prefecture recorded the most rain in 24 hours since records began in 1976, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said yesterday.Shinjo recorded 389 millimetres and Sakata 289 millimetres.Footage showed raging brown waters sweeping away several vehicles including a police car.Authorities issued evacuation advisories to more than 200,000 people, the fire and disaster management agency said.At least 2,000 people evacuated to shelters in Yamagata as of yesterday afternoon, public broadcaster NHK reported.About 3,060 households were without power, 1,100 had no running water.Some motorways were closed in the area and Shinkansen bullet trains suspended operations, government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters.The military was sent to Yamagata to join rescue activities carried out by police and fire department officials, he said.Japan's weather agency this week issued its highest emergency alert for heavy rain for Sakata and Yuza in Yamagata prefecture.It later downgraded the warning by one notch in the country's five-tier warning system, but called for the public to stay vigilant for potential landslides and flooding.The JMA forecasts 100 to 200 millimetres of rain per day will continue for the next three days.

The Federal Reserve is likely to signal next week its plans to cut interest rates in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025.Nearly three-quarters of respondents say the US central bank will use the July 30-31 gathering to set the stage for a quarter-point cut at the following meeting in September. They’re divided, however, about how policymakers will do so.Half of respondents see officials signalling the upcoming move with both the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later, but others anticipate the Fed to use one method or the other. All respondents expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at a more than two-decade high at next week’s meeting.The survey of 47 economists was conducted July 22-24, following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential election.In recent weeks, Fed officials led by Powell have said the labour market has come into balance and inflation has resumed falling towards the central bank’s 2% target, suggesting they see a growing case for lowering borrowing costs. They are now putting emphasis on the central bank’s goal of maximum employment as well as stable prices when deciding on policy.“I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that monetary policy has become increasingly restrictive with inflation falling, while “the economy’s not overheating.”Nearly two-thirds of Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee to say in the post-meeting statement that officials have gained some additional confidence inflation is moving to its target — a step toward cutting.More than a quarter of economists, however, see no signalling of rate adjustments at the July meeting. Instead, the message could be firmed up in the weeks that follow, including during the chair’s annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in late August.The economists’ median view for interest-rate cuts in September and December is slightly less aggressive than markets, which put better than even odds of 75 basis points of cuts this year. Some investors are even betting on an initial half-point cut, but economists see the odds of that as an unlikely 20%.Such a move would likely be spurred only if labour market conditions, now viewed as strong but less overheated, were seen deteriorating.While the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.1%, it has now edged higher in each of the last three months. It’s up from a low of 3.4% in early 2023, raising some concerns about recession risk. The July jobs report will be released next week.“The labour market has been cooling for a while — the deterioration isn’t sudden. Given its dual mandate, the Fed is likely behind the curve on cutting rates. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% by the end of 2024,” says Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg.One complication for September would be its proximity to the US presidential election in November. An initiation of rate cuts less than two months before the election would likely be subject to criticism about political motivations.A third of economists say that would raise the bar for cuts, meaning the data would need to be incrementally more compelling, though the rest say they agree with Powell’s view that the timing of the election would have no impact on a decision about borrowing costs.While the presidential election, as well as competition for control of Congress, has brought uncertainty over the outcome for US fiscal policy in 2025, economists say the decision by Biden to withdraw from the race hasn’t changed their economic outlook. An overwhelming majority say they haven’t altered forecasts for interest rates or growth because of the president’s decision.Still, one third of Fed watchers say political uncertainty stemming from the election this year has raised downside risks to growth. Changes in tax policies and spending would affect the 2025 economy, and potentially interest rates.“If the federal deficit worsens in 2025, monetary policy will have to tighten and growth will decelerate,” said Thomas Fullerton, an economics professor at the University of Texas at El Paso and one of the survey respondents.

Qatar's $2.5bn green bond has driven the other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries to scout for sustainable debt, as the aggregate issuances (including the green bonds and sukuks) from the region is slated to breach $150bn this year, according to Kamco Invest, a regional economic think-tank."Green bonds remain one of the areas of interest for the GCC issuers with this year’s issuance by Qatar government," Kamco Invest said in its latest report.HSBC was one of the arrangers of the green bond and said other countries in the GCC could follow either this year or next. Oman’s ministry of finance has already prepared a sustainable finance framework under which it intends to borrow.Qatar, which started issuance of green instruments after a gap of three years, topped this year with total issuances of $2.5bn, followed by the UAE and Kuwait with green issuances of $1.8bn and $1bn, respectively.Qatar's debut green deal was allocated into two segments, the first for $1bn for a five-year period with 30 basis points above the US treasury bonds and the second for $1.5bn for a 10-year period with 40 basis points.Qatar’s HE the Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari had said Qatar decided to issue green bonds “mainly to send a strong statement” of its efforts to tackle climate change.The aggregate issuances of green bonds and sukuk in the GCC reached $6.1bn in the first half (H1) of 2024 compared with record issuances of $17.3bn during the whole of 2023.In terms of type of issuer, governments in the region took the lead with total green bonds issuances reaching $3.25bn compared to corporate issuances of $2.8bn. Comparatively, the issuance of green bonds reached $387bn during H1-2024, according to a Bloomberg report, once again led by an increase in issuances from governments.Expecting a record year for the GCC as (total) issuances during H1-2024 have already exceeded last year‘s level; Kamco Invest said: "We expect aggregate issuances to breach the $150bn mark by the end of the year as corporate issuances are expected to tap the market towards the end of the year as rate cuts are implemented."Sovereign issuances, meanwhile, are expected to retreat as compared to H1-2024 levels. The remainder of the year would see maturities of $24.8bn that is almost equally split between governments and corporates, according to the report.Aggregate issuances during the first six months of 2024 stood at a record high of $113.7bn, almost double the issuances during H1-2023, Kamco said, adding the increase was mainly led by higher government issuances of $62.1bn during H1-2024 against $24.4bn during H1-2023. On the other hand, corporate issuances also increased, albeit at a smaller rate of 46.5% or by $16.4bn to $51.6bn during H1-2024.The aggregate GCC bond issuances went up by 65.2% year-on-year to $58.5bn in H1-2024. Sukuk issuances, on the other hand, more than doubled with a solid growth to $55.2bn during H1-2024.

Singapore’s central bank kept its monetary policy settings unchanged for a fifth straight time in a widely anticipated move and reiterated that inflation will cool to about 2% in 2025, opening the window slightly for easing to begin next year.The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which uses the exchange rate as its main policy tool rather than interest rates, maintained the slope, width, and centre of the currency band, it said in a statement yesterday. That will keep the local dollar on an appreciating path to blunt imported inflation.“Current monetary policy settings remain appropriate,” it said, extending a pause after five rounds of tightening between October 2021 and 2022. It followed data earlier this month of the city-state’s slowest core inflation in more than two years and faster-than-expected economic growth. The MAS decision comes ahead of rate reviews by the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan next week.With the statement suggesting that the MAS is likely to keep policy unchanged this year, Singapore’s dollar held steady at 1.34 against the greenback.“Overall, the statement is balanced,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “There is nothing here to signal that an October move is pending. I maintain my view that easing is a 2025 story.”“Barring renewed shocks to costs, core inflation should step down more discernibly” in the fourth quarter, the central bank said. It reiterated a forecast during its July 18 annual report that price gains will slow “further to around 2% in 2025” after averaging 2.5-3.5% this year.The central bank said it expects headline inflation to come in between 2-3% this year, lower than the 2.5-3.5% range seen previously.Since its last decision in April, data showed Singapore’s economic recovery has gained momentum in the second quarter while core inflation, which is tracked by the MAS, eased below 3% in June after staying stuck for three straight months. Slowing price gains allows policymakers the room to keep monetary settings conducive to support economic growth amid rising geopolitical tensions.The MAS kept a “two-sided inflation risk outlook,” said Selena Ling, chief economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd. “This affords maximum flexibility for the upcoming policy meetings while awaiting the more significant step-down in core inflation” in the fourth quarter.Ling pointed to a sentence in Friday’s statement which suggests policymakers “are monitoring the sequential pace of change for core inflation, so October window may really be open” for easing policy. Her baseline scenario is for 2025, though.Brian Tan, a senior regional economist for Asean at Barclays Plc, reckons the 2% core inflation forecast is “notable,” adding he expects “policymakers would continue to see little need to ease or tighten” the Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate, or S$NEER, band parameters in the near term.“With growth seen strengthening even further in the second half of the year, the central bank is likely to maintain its tight settings through year-end,” says Tamara Mast Henderson, economist at Bloomberg.The MAS, which guides the local dollar against a basket of its major trading partners and adjusts the pace of its appreciation or depreciation by changing the slope, width and centre of the currency band, also reiterated its expectation for economic growth to come closer to the upper half of a 1-3% range forecast for this year.The central bank doesn’t disclose details of the basket, the band nor the pace of appreciation or depreciation.