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Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects that the European Central Bank will implement two additional interest rate cuts, by 25 basis points, during the current year, as it continues to closely monitor price developments and labor market activity.QNB noted that despite the beginning of the easing cycle, there is still significant uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts going further, as well as what level will be the neutral rate, at which the nominal policy rate should stabilize.The report said that, every summer, the European Central Bank (ECB) organizes a sought-after monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal. The event is one of the most important central banking conferences in the world, bringing together top economists, bankers, market participants, academics and policy makers to discuss relevant macro issues. It added that the forum has garnered significant attention due to the impactful speeches delivered by senior policymakers, rivalling the Jackson Hole conference in its appeal to investors. This years meeting was particularly relevant, as the ECB had just starteda new phase of its monetary policy cycle last month, when policy rates were cut for the first time in five years. This came after a holding period of ninemonths, which followed the most aggressive tightening in the history of the ECB, when rates were hiked by 425 basis points (bps) as a response to thepost-pandemic inflationary shock.The weekly note highlighted the introductory speech of the Sintra forum from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which expressed what is behind the hesitation to take a more aggressive path towards a faster monetary policy easing, saying that: "Now, we are still facing several uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially in terms of how the nexus of profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply-side shocks. And it will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above-target inflation have passed.QNB's report sees that, with inflation still running at 2.5% y/y in June, above the 2% target of the ECB but much below the recent peak from October 2022, there is comfort for the beginning of an easing cycle but still no consensus for a more "dovish" stance, which would translate to faster rate cuts.The note said that the insights shared during the meeting by senior ECB officials pointed to a "rather unusual economic cycle," which increases uncertainty and requires a more nimble, data dependent approach to monetary policy.The weekly report also noted that despite five straight quarters of stagnation since late 2022, the Euro area economy has so far avoided a sharper downturn. This is an unusual outcome given the magnitude of the supply shocks that had to be tamed, such as the Covid pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War. QNB added that these events had major implications, such as input shortages, a regional energy crisis and the de-anchoring of fiscal policies, which caused wider budget deficits and higher government indebtedness. The ECB had to then respond strongly, taking policy rates to restrictive levels in order to re anchor inflation expectations."In previous periods, such negative headwinds from external shocks and central bank policy would have produced a more pronounced recession. This time, however, seems to be different. A mix of labor shortages, fiscal expansion and nominal earnings growth contributed to support exceptionally benignlabor markets, despite the stagnant economy. In fact, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows at the same time that wages are still growing at more than4% per year," the report added.QNB's report concluded that the lack of more severe weakness in labor markets prevents the ECB from embarking on a firmer policy easing stance.

Britain's economy grew more quickly than expected in May, providing some momentum for the new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer but adding to doubts about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month, reports Reuters.Economic output increased by 0.4% in May, after zero growth in April, the Office for National Statistics said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.2% monthly increase.The strength of the upturn could dissuade the BoE from beginning to cut interest rates as soon as August 1, its next scheduled monetary policy announcement date. Three policymakers this week emphasised the strength of domestic price pressures.The chance of a rate cut in three weeks' time fell below 50% on the futures markets from just above 50% on Wednesday.May saw a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services, manufacturing and construction industries all growing and the latter up by 1.9% on the month, driven by house-building.The figures represented an early boost for the new Labour administration, which has set itself the aim of achieving the fastest growth among the Group of Seven advanced economies on a sustained basis."The improving economic outlook suggests the government may benefit from the economic recovery being stronger than most forecasters anticipate," Ashley Webb, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics, said.Britain's economy appears to have snapped out of its low-growth rut, at least for now. Output has grown by 1.5% since the turn of the year, marking its best five months since early 2017, excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.Goldman Sachs on Thursday nudged up its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2% from 1.1%.Still, the longer-run picture remains weak, with the economy only 2.7% larger than its pre-pandemic level of late 2019.According to the latest quarterly data, only Germany has fared worse since the pandemic.Over the three months to May, the economy expanded by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.

Estelle knew she had to flee Myanmar. The military junta had just announced it would introduce conscription to bolster its forces against myriad armed groups challenging its power, and she was terrified she would be forced to fight.The former government worker, whose name has been changed to protect her identity, is among thousands of people who have decided to leave their homes since the mandatory military service law was announced in February, and then came into effect in April.Some people have risked their lives to trek through jungles and ford rivers, crossing into neighbouring countries without documentation because the military has made it increasingly difficult to leave through formal channels.Others have fled to areas under the control of armed groups fighting against the military, or have joined these groups themselves.The mass exodus is taking place as the military regime faces its most serious crisis since it took power in a 2021 coup, which sparked widespread protests. The street demonstrations, which were met with a brutal crackdown, morphed into an armed resistance movement that has seen newer anti-coup forces join with many of Myanmar’s autonomy-seeking ethnic armed groups, posing the most significant challenge to the military in decades.The UN Human Rights Office says more than 5,000 people have been killed by the military since the coup, including more than 1,000 women. Around 3 million people have been displaced. Estelle had to sneak out of the country because she had joined a countrywide Civil Disobedience Movement after the coup and faced international travel restrictions as a result.She and a friend paid the equivalent of around $280 each in Myanmar’s kyat currency to travel by car from the city of Mawlamyine to the border with Thailand and then hired a smuggler to take them across the Moei River.“It was just the two of us girls travelling with a man we didn’t know,” Estelle said. “We were scared we would be arrested or trafficked.”But they took the risk anyway despite the fact that, at 36, Estelle falls outside the age range for conscription. A few days after its initial announcement, the junta also pledged to exempt women for the time being.But Estelle is not going back.“That’s just words,” she said. “We never know when the time will come when they will make difficulties for us.”The junta has been accused by Western governments of systematic atrocities, including executions and torture, and excessive use of air strikes and artillery in civilian areas. It has dismissed that as misinformation and says it is targeting “terrorists”.The junta said it planned to call up 5,000 people by the end of April and 60,000 by the end of the year. Men aged 18-35 and women aged 18 to 27 are eligible, with the age limit extending to 45 for men and 35 for women in the case of specialists like doctors.In a report published in July, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said women’s rights organisations had identified increasing reports of the trafficking of women and girls following the enactment of the conscription law.“Women are using dangerous channels to flee the country amid fears of conscription, putting them at high risk of trafficking and other forms of exploitation. Conscription exemptions for married women also raise the risk of early and forced marriage for girls and women,” Andrews wrote.For Catherine, whose name has also been changed for security reasons, the writing is on the wall.“The military is weak, so it’s calling (up) young people. It’s not OK for us, and we don’t accept it,” the 23-year-old florist and office worker said in a telephone interview from the northern city of Myitkyina.“Military conscription laws in other countries are designed to protect and defend their nations against external threats, but in our country, this law is intended to force us to kill our own people.”Catherine and her friends attempt to make light of the situation, but they are worried.“We joke that the hands that once held flowers will hold guns now,” she said. “Although we are joking, we feel deeply concerned and disappointed that it has come to this situation.”Catherine is trying to get a passport but is struggling as the demand for passports has surged since February. The military call-up comes on top of an economic crisis that has sent the currency spiralling lower and caused unemployment to surge. The World Bank says women have been particularly hard hit by the economic downturn that followed the Covid pandemic and the coup.Moon Nay Li, joint general secretary for advocacy group the Women’s League of Burma, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation that displaced women could be pushed into early or forced marriage, and also face heightened risks of domestic violence.“There is no safe place for women and girls...they have to survive in risky situations,” she said.In his report, UN Special Rapporteur Andrews said women and girls were acutely vulnerable to discrimination, violence, and exploitation since the coup. Women interviewed by the Thomson Reuters Foundation said a sense of unease has seeped into their everyday lives.“Sometimes, I feel mentally exhausted,” said Catherine. “I’m scared to go out alone, even to get a coffee.”And in the past months, there have been signs that their exemption from military service may be coming to an end.Several media have said that local-level officials serving under the military’s administration were drawing up lists of women who were eligible to be called up to the army.The military has denied these claims - describing them as “fake news” — but an analysis of military pamphlets and pro-military media channels conducted by the Burma Affairs and Conflict Study (BACS) advocacy group found that women were likely to be included in the fifth batch of conscripts, due to be called up in August.Min Htet Aung, a lead researcher for BACS, said women would face unique risks if forced to serve.“The Myanmar military is an organisation dominated by patriarchy and male chauvinism. Consequently, women who join the military may face discrimination and sexual abuse,” he said in an emailed response to questions.Women were at the forefront of resistance to the 2021 coup and have also joined armed groups fighting the military. Around one-fifth of the 20,000 political prisoners in Myanmar are female, according to a local rights group.Women from the Rohingya, a mostly Muslim minority from Myanmar’s Rakhine State, have also faced fresh hardships after years of abuses. In 2017, a violent military crackdown against the Rohingya sent 730,000 people fleeing to Bangladesh. The United Nations described the action as genocidal in intent.Although Rohingya are not eligible for conscription under the law because they are denied citizenship, the military has conscripted more than 1,000 Rohingya men and boys since February using methods including abduction, threats and false promises of citizenship, according to a Human Rights Watch report.And this has had an effect on women and the economic welfare of their households.“Families are worried... Women don’t want their husbands to go,” said Sofia, a Rohingya women’s protection specialist in Rakhine State, who also used a pseudonym for security reasons.On May 3, the military said men of conscription age would no longer be allowed to seek employment abroad, and those avoiding conscription would face three years in jail.Min Htet Aung said the army was snatching people from their homes, roadside checkpoints, tea shops and bars and sometimes soldiers threatened the parents of people who had fled, a tactic it also uses against opponents.“The junta propagates the notion that they only recruit volunteers. However, in reality, few people willingly enlist. Most are recruited by force,” said Min Htet Aung.The International Organisation for Migration in Thailand said it had seen a steady increase in people crossing the border from Myanmar, including a nearly 30% increase between January and February. Women were more likely than men to enter without official documentation, it added. But it’s not just military conscription that some women have to fear.In the eastern Shan State, at least three ethnic armed groups have announced mandatory service policies in recent months and two conscript women.Fear of being conscripted into an ethnic armed group drove 16-year-old Christine, who also did not give her real name for security reasons, from her home in Lashio township in February after one of the armed groups there told her grandmother that Christine and her siblings would have to serve in its forces.They fled the next day and Christine headed to Malaysia. She described hiding in the back of a cargo truck and walking through mountains at night. She is now in Kuala Lumpur where she is terrified of being arrested by immigration officials.“I don’t have many difficulties as long as I don’t leave my room,” she said. “It’s not safe around here.”Estelle also found it hard to get by in Thailand because she did not enter legally. But she has no intention of going home while the junta remains in power.“I hope the revolution will succeed quickly and that I can return home quickly.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation

Walt Disney and Japan’s Oriental Land Company unveiled plans yesterday to launch a new cruise ship that will set sail from Tokyo in 2029, adding a ninth vessel to the brand’s growing fleet.The new ship will be modelled after the Wish, the largest vessel in Disney’s fleet. OLC, the operator of Tokyo Disneyland, will also operate the new cruise vessel.Disney currently has five cruise ships in operation. In addition to the Tokyo-based vessel, it has plans for three others, including one that will set sail from Singapore in 2025.The ship in Tokyo will have a maximum capacity of 4,000 passengers and is expected to bring in about 100bn yen ($621.77mn) in annual sales within several years of launch, OLC said.“To set sail from Japan will make Disney vacations at sea more accessible to Japanese guests, who we know are some of our biggest fans,” Thomas Mazloum, president of Disney Signature Experiences, told reporters.The cruise industry has been enjoying a rebound from a global shutdown during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Cruise Lines International Association expects the number of passengers to reach 34.7mn this year, up 17% from 2019. Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Experiences, told Reuters in a recent interview that the ships provide the opportunity to bring themed entertainment to places not close to the company’s theme parks, such as Melbourne or Vancouver.Disney also reaches a segment of the cruise market that had gone unaddressed — families.“Forty percent of the people on those ships today will say, ‘The only reason I’m on a cruise ship today is because Disney’s here,’ which means we’re creating a market,” D’Amaro said.“When we are in Singapore, with this unbelievable ship that we’re building, the same thing is going to happen,” he added. “We know there’s an insatiable demand for everything Disney.” Disney’s experiences business, which includes its domestic and international parks and cruise line, accounted for more than one-third of the company’s revenue in the March quarter, and nearly 60% of its operating income.The company’s stock tumbled in May after Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston warned about a “global moderation” in travel in the fiscal third quarter and other impacts, including higher wages and preopening expenses related to two of the new cruise ships and the new vacation island, Lookout Cay.The rising tide for Disney’s cruise lines could help offset any softness in the company’s domestic theme park business, UBS analyst John Hodulik said. The company said its second quarter booking occupancy is at 97% for all five ships.The rapid expansion of Disney’s cruise capacity “helps de-risk the medium-term outlook” for the parks business, Hodulik said.Disney has announced a 10-year, $60bn expansion of its theme parks and cruise business.Other recent investments include three new areas at the Tokyo DisneySea theme park, recreating the worlds of “Frozen,” “Tangled” and “Peter Pan,” the opening of a “Frozen”-themed area at Hong Kong Disneyland, and a “Zootopia” experience in Shanghai.The company is expected to announce plans for new attractions at Disneyland in California and Walt Disney World in central Florida in August, at its D23 fan convention.

After years of informal work as a farm labourer, Federico Olivieri, 29, could not believe it when a huge building site appeared next to his home in Sicily with training on offer for the numerous specialised jobs required.The programme by Italy’s largest construction group Webuild is among a growing number of ‘academies’ run and financed by companies frustrated by many job-seekers lacking the know-how.“We are being proactive about the problem. If the skills aren’t there, then we will create them ourselves,” Webuild’s Chief HR, Organiwation & Systems Officer Gianluca Grondona told Reuters of the group’s programme, which it launched in November.Skill mismatches are an international problem but for Italy, with the lowest employment rate in the EU and productivity that has stagnated for more than two decades, it is acute.Despite a large pool of people seeking work or outside the labour market, vacancy rates stood at 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024, in line with the EU average, data from European Union statistics agency Eurostat shows. This compares with 2.8% in France and 0.9% in Spain in the same period.Vocational schools and colleges are fewer and less popular in Italy than in most European countries, think-tank Prometeia highlighted in a June report, and even those that there are fail to produce students with the right expertise.At the same time, too many young people are still studying subjects with lower market demand, such as humanities, it said.The problem has become more severe with the rapid development of new technologies, as Rome invests in European-Union-backed infrastructure projects as part of its post-Covid recovery plan, worth about €200bn ($214bn).Big firms like Webuild, shipbuilder Fincantieri , and state railway group Ferrovie dello Stato (FS) are taking matters into their own hands.On top of its apprenticeships, FS liaises with universities and schools to offer students more targeted courses.“As the company changes, skills change and we need specific capabilities, particularly when it comes to digital and artificial intelligence-based jobs,” said Adriano Mureddu, its Chief Human Resources Officer.Olivieri, who trained as an agronomist, was frustrated by a succession of temporary, underpaid contracts in a Sicilian agricultural sector undercut by cheap imports of citrus fruit.He joined Webuild’s programme this year and now works with tunnel-boring machines at its site on Sicily’s eastern coast.“The courses are an incredible opportunity for those who are willing to learn something new ... you can’t miss a chance like this,” he said.Webuild aims to source from its work academies some 3,000 people out of 10,000 new hires it envisages over the next three years. The academies are close to its infrastructure work sites, mainly in southern regions where unemployment is high.Lorenzo Esposito Corcione, a 19-year-old who studied at nautical school in Genoa, is one of 80 people hired by Fincantieri after being trained under its ‘Masters of the Sea’ programme launched eight months ago. The programme drew 17,000 applicants.“Without the course I wouldn’t be here,” Esposito Corcione told Reuters at the end of his shift as an electrics fitter in the shipyard of the north-eastern port of Monfalcone.“There is a world of difference between what I studied in school and what is actually being done here in the yard.”Italy faces a problem not only of skills but also of numbers. It has one of the world’s oldest populations and lowest fertility rates at 1.2 children per woman and meanwhile, the baby-boomers of the 1960s are now retiring. This means in the next five years Italy will need 3.1m to 3.6mn new workers, business group Unioncamere estimates.By 2050, Italy will have almost 5mn fewer people, and more than a third of them will be over 65, national statistics office ISTAT predicts. Younger blood is badly needed in a host of industries, from construction and tourism to agriculture.Despite its anti-immigration rhetoric, Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government last year quietly raised quotas for work visas for non-EU citizens to 452,000 for the period 2023-2025, an increase of nearly 150% from the previous three years. Italy has attracted workers from elsewhere in the EU, despite its wages being relatively low, but this has not helped resolve its skills mismatch. For now, the academies and training offered by big firms are alleviating the problem, providing priceless opportunities to people like Pasquale Infante, 28, who has just starting work as a pipe fitter at Fincantieri’s Marghera plant near Venice.“These programmes are good for workers and good for companies...they are teaching people the skills they need,” he said. — Reuters

Qatar Development Bank (QDB) added to its list of prestigious awards two new accolades from Global Finance magazine.The publication named QDB as ‘Qatar’s Best SME Bank and Trade Finance Provider for 2024’ in recognition of its achievements in supporting Qatari small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and offering diverse financing programs to foster the private sector.QDB CEO Abdulrahman Hesham al-Sowaidi said: “We are pleased with this international recognition, which represents the outcome of our efforts in developing services and financing solutions to empower SMEs and entrepreneurs. At QDB, we are committed to providing integrated services to entrepreneurs in terms of financing and development solutions both domestically and overseas through our general and specialized programmes.”He added: “Through these programmes, we ensure diversification in priority economic sectors, provide a pioneering and appropriate investment environment for businesses, and transform Qatar into an innovation and investment hub under Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy.”Global Finance’s Best SME Bank award is considered one of the most prestigious honours when evaluating the performance of financial institutions around the world. Participating institutions were assessed during the April 2022-March 2023 period in terms of knowledge of SME markets and their needs and the breadth of the bank’s products and services, as well as its market position and innovative offerings.Other secondary evaluation criteria covered the institution’s international reach, its partnerships, its employees’ expertise, the quality of its customer service, and how it managed risks and harnessed technology in its operations.According to the magazine, QDB was able to serve SMEs through more than 40 financing programmes tailored to the needs of entrepreneurs, disbursing around QR1bn in direct loans between April 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023, raising QDB’s total financing to SMEs to approximately QR6.7bn, in addition to investing QR74.84mn in SMEs during the same period.QDB was also recognised for its digital initiatives in support of Qatar’s entrepreneurship ecosystem, including the launch of the QDB Digital Portal and the bank’s various programmes to finance digitisation solutions.The bank also launched several initiatives in the field of sustainability, including its Green Financing Programme to support companies with sustainable business models through local and international partnerships and established the National Guarantee Programme to help companies mitigate the negative repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic.These initiatives reflect the bank’s commitment to accelerating the private sector’s adoption of emerging technologies and supporting the digital transformation of SMEs per Qatar’s National Development Strategy.QDB was named as the Best Trade Finance Provider in Qatar in recognition of its excellence in supporting export-oriented businesses during the first nine months of 2023. The award underscores the bank’s pivotal role in terms of providing access to financing solutions and international markets, its share of total outstanding loans, the volume of financed transactions and the extent of its commitment to expanding its technology investments, the scope of its operations, and its suite of products and financing solutions.The bank’s efforts enabled over QR1.21bn in exports in the first nine months of 2023 with 215 companies benefiting from the bank’s export development and promotion initiatives and programmes. The bank also offered training programmes to equip businesses and entrepreneurs with the necessary skills and expertise to access global markets, leading to an increase in export-oriented businesses. Today, 70% of the bank’s customers leverage its digital services.QDB continues to develop and diversify its services and financing solutions in co-operation with local financial institutions and is pursuing new initiatives in the field of digital transformation while expanding its operations to support the private sector.

The State of Qatar hosted a training course titled 'Public Health Skills for Action in Complex Emergencies in the Eastern Mediterranean Region,' organized by the Ministry of Public Health in cooperation with experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, with the participation of 60 experts from 24 countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO).During the closing remarks, Director of the Health Emergencies Department at the Ministry of Public Health Dr. Soha Al Bayat emphasized that the State of Qatar fully supports the vision of the Global Health Emergency Corps (GHEC), and is keen to inspire broader participation in this crucial initiative.She pointed out that the GHEC initiative represents a shared commitment to building surge capacity, emergency leadership, and a well-trained public health workforce. She indicated that this training is not only intended to equip participants with the skills and knowledge necessary to tackle public health challenges but also to foster a spirit of collaboration and partnership.She noted that the EMRO, like other regions worldwide, has faced increasingly complex public health threats, from infectious disease outbreaks to natural disasters and conflicts, adding that the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing complex health emergencies have brought to light significant challenges and highlighted the importance of a coordinated, global response.She stressed the need for a skilled and coordinated regional health workforce, pointing out that the course is a critical investment in building surge capacity, fostering regional collaboration, and strengthening the regional health emergency workforce. The course also aims to empower the next generation of leaders, ensuring that communities around the world are better prepared to face future health crises, Dr. Al Bayat added.The intensive training helped equip emergency responders and leaders with the knowledge, skills, and leadership capabilities needed to navigate complex emergencies. The course is recognized as one of the best globally and involves a combination of theoretical learning and practical simulations. The course participants gained crucial expertise to design and implement effective public health interventions in challenging emergency environments.

Having fled Myanmar for Japan with his parents as a child, Shibuya Zarny began his fashion career as a model in Tokyo and went on to make clothes for royalty.“Fashion is an art that has enabled me to survive,” the designer, whose label recently held a 10-year anniversary show in Bangkok, told AFP.The runway looks featured nods to Southeast Asian design, from leaf and eye motifs to jewellery worn under colourful jackets by shirtless male models.Zarny’s parents came to Japan as political refugees in 1993 when he was eight.As a teenager, dressing with style became a way for him to avoid being bullied.His mother first taught him dressmaking, and before long Zarny, with his slim silhouette and intense stare, had been scouted as a model on a dance floor in the capital.“At the time we had no Instagram,” he recalled, so to see and be seen he would hang out at bars, arcades and novelty photo booths called purikura.Zarny often went to Shibuya, the youthful district he later took as his first name.“At that time Shibuya was really dangerous. There was a whole underground scene” with yakuza gangsters, he said.As his career took flight, Zarny launched his eponymous label in 2011, a year before finally securing Japanese nationality.The fledgling designer gifted 70 longyi – a traditional garment that ties at the waist – to Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.She wore a lilac one to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012, a moment which Zarny said “changed my life”.Alongside his catwalk endeavours over the following years, Zarny acted as a mediator between Japan and Myanmar.He even accompanied Japan’s Princess Yoko of Mikasa – dressed in a Zarny original – on a visit there in 2019.Now, with Suu Kyi detained since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, he is raising funds for others escaping his native country.When the junta seized power, Zarny received a stream of messages asking for help.“So many refugees from Myanmar came to Thailand, at the border,” said the 39-year-old.He sprang into action, working with the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) and organising events in Tokyo.“Myanmar people lost their pride, they are sad. So I want to show my fashion power, to give them confidence and a brave heart.”Zarny’s professional connections in Myanmar were scattered – just one challenge he has faced in recent years.The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic put a stop to jet-set parties, decimating demand for his expensive clothes and eventually forcing him to abandon his showroom in Tokyo’s high-end Omotesando district.One of his top clients – politician Shinzo Abe, for whom he made suits – resigned as prime minister in 2020 and was shot dead two years later.However, Zarny is no stranger to starting over and has branched out into interior design.He also made a suit for the captain of the refugee Olympic team ahead of the upcoming Games in Paris, where he hopes to one day present a collection.These days Zarny runs his studio from a compact apartment in northern Tokyo, where dozens of small paintings showing bucolic scenes of Myanmar adorn the walls.“My grandfather, who was an art professor, made these watercolours for me when I was a child, because I was missing Myanmar,” he said.The recent show in Bangkok has generated demand from Thai customers, leading Zarny to reflect on his roots.“I was always thinking: where am I from? Am I a Japanese designer, or something else?” he said.“I realised finally ‘I’m from Southeast Asia’,” Zarny said, adding that he wants to concentrate on this “original” source of inspiration.

Newly elected UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer began his first full day in charge yesterday by declaring the ousted Tories’ plan to deport migrants to Rwanda “dead and buried” and pledging growth as his government’s “number one mission”.On Friday the Labour leader won a landslide election victory, bringing to a close 14 years of Conservative rule.He said he was “restless for change” and that his party had received a “mandate to do politics differently”.Starmer started the day with a first meeting of his cabinet including Britain’s first woman finance minister, Rachel Reeves, and new foreign minister, David Lammy.“We have a huge amount of work to do, so now we get on with our work,” he told his top team to applause and smiles around the cabinet table.At a news conference afterwards he said he would not be proceeding with former Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak’s controversial scheme to tackle rising small boat arrivals on England’s southern coast by deporting migrants to Rwanda.“The Rwanda scheme was dead and buried before it started ... I’m not prepared to continue with gimmicks that don’t act as a deterrent,” he told reporters at his 10 Downing Street office.The previous Conservative government first announced the plan in 2022 to send migrants who arrived in Britain without permission to the East African nation, saying that it would put an end to asylum-seekers arriving on small boats.However, no one was sent to Rwanda under the plan because of years of legal challenges.Starmer spent his first hours in Downing Street on Friday appointing his ministerial team, hours after securing his centre-left party’s return to power with a whopping 174-seat majority in the UK parliament.Notable lower-ranking appointments included Patrick Vallance, chief scientific government adviser during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, who has been made a science minister.James Timpson, whose shoe repair company employs ex-offenders, was also made a prisons minister.Starmer said both new ministers were people “associated with change” and illustrated his determination to deliver concrete improvements to people’s lives.Work on “driving growth” had already begun, he said, adding that he had told his ministers “exactly what I expect of them in terms of standards, delivery, and the trust that the country has put in them”.Flag-waving crowds of cheering Labour activists on Friday welcomed Starmer to Downing Street hours after his victory.However, daunting challenges await his government, including a stagnating economy, creaking public services and households suffering from a years-long cost-of-living crisis.World leaders lined up to congratulate the new British premier.Starmer spoke by telephone with US President Joe Biden and “discussed their shared commitment to the special relationship between the UK and US and their aligned ambitions for greater economic growth”, according to London.He also spoke to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.However, former – and potentially future – US president Donald Trump ignored Starmer, instead hailing the five-seat electoral breakthrough of his ally Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK party.Starmer will make his debut on the international stage as leader when he flies to Washington next week for a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) summit.“It is for me to be absolutely clear that the first duty of my government is security and defence, to make clear our unshakable support of Nato,” he said.He added that he had reiterated the support of the UK and its allies for Ukraine to Zelensky.The election saw Labour near its record of 418 seats under ex-leader Tony Blair in 1997 by winning 412.The Conservatives suffered their worst-ever defeat, capturing just 121 constituencies, prompting Sunak to apologise to the nation and confirm that he will resign as Tory leader once arrangements are in place to select a successor.A record 12 senior government ministers lost their seats, alongside former prime minister Liz Truss, whose economically calamitous short-lived tenure in 2022 wounded the party irreparably ahead of the election.It is now poised for another period of infighting between a moderate wing eager for a centrist leader and those who may even be willing to court Farage as a new figurehead.The election also saw the centrist Liberal Democrats make their biggest gains in around a century, claiming more than 70 seats.However, it was a dismal contest for the pro-independence Scottish National Party, which was virtually obliterated in Scotland. It dropped from 48 seats to just nine.The Green Party had its best general election, quadrupling its MPs count to four.Meanwhile, an unprecedented six independent lawmakers were elected – four of them defeating Labour candidates in districts with large Muslim populations and campaigns centred around the Israel-Hamas conflict.At the press conference in Downing Street, Starmer answered about a dozen questions and was repeatedly asked about how and when he would start delivering on his promises to fix the nation’s problems, but he gave few specifics about what he planned.Asked if he was willing to take tough decisions and raise taxes if necessary, Starmer said his government would identify problems and act in areas such as tackling an overstretched prisons system and reducing the long waiting times to use the state-run health service.“We’re going to have to take the tough decisions and take them early, and we will. We will do that with a raw honesty,” he said. “But that is not a sort of prelude to saying there’s some tax decision that we didn’t speak about before.”Starmer said he would set up and chair different “mission delivery boards” to focus on so-called missions or priority areas such as the health service and economic growth.The question of how to stop the asylum-seekers crossing from France was a major theme of the six-week election campaign.While supporters say it would smash the model of people traffickers, critics have argued the Rwanda policy was immoral and would never work.Last November, the UK Supreme Court declared the policy unlawful, saying Rwanda could not be considered a safe third country, prompting ministers to sign a new treaty with the East African country and to pass new legislation to override this.The legality of that move was being challenged by charities and unions in the courts.The British government has already given the Rwandan government hundreds of millions of pounds to set up accommodation and hire extra officials to process the asylum-seekers, money it cannot recover.Sonya Sceats, chief executive of Freedom from Torture, one of the many organisations and charities which have campaigned to stop the Rwanda plan, welcomed Starmer’s announcement.“We applaud Keir Starmer for moving immediately to close the door on this shameful scheme that played politics with the lives of people fleeting torture and persecution,” she said.

Climate activists in the United States and Europe are planning protests at airports, banks and the Olympic Games in a summer of stunts they have defended as necessary even if their tactics differ.From blocking highways to spray painting jets and the megaliths at Stonehenge, and throwing food at artworks, some climate activists have turned to more provocative tactics since the Covid-19 pandemic put an abrupt end to the mass marches spurred by Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future movement.The last 12 months have been the hottest ever recorded and with swathes of the world blanketed in extreme heat, campaigners have heavy-polluting corporations and business interests in their sights.A22 Network, an alliance of activist groups committed to non-violent protest, said it was planning to disrupt airports in eight countries over the northern hemisphere summer.Protests are planned in the UK, Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, US, Scotland and Norway, UK-based activists from the alliance told AFP.Global aviation is responsible for around 2.5% of global carbon emissions, more than the annual carbon footprint of Brazil and France combined.“Our resistance will put the spotlight on the heaviest users of fossil fuels and call everyone into action with us,” Just Stop Oil, one of the groups that embraced more controversial forms of protests, said in a statement.UK police said they pre-emptively arrested 27 supporters from Just Stop Oil before the protest had even begun under laws that make it illegal to conspire to disrupt national infrastructure.But Gabriella Ditton, a spokesperson for the group, said the arrests hadn’t deterred them.“While we face the massive crisis that we are in, we can’t stop,” she told AFP.They are demanding governments sign the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which seeks a halt to the expansion of fossil fuels and the phasing out of coal, oil and gas.In the US, activists have been targeting Wall Street and barricading the entrances to major banks and firms that finance, insure and invest in fossil fuel companies.Organisers of “The Summer of Heat” campaign have vowed “joyful, relentless non-violent direct action to end fossil fuel financing” over the coming months.Notably in Europe, Extinction Rebellion (XR), once notorious for shutting down bridges over the Thames River in London, have shifted their main focus from mass civil disobedience to building an inclusive grassroots movement.This summer, they are calling on governments in the UK and France to establish citizen assemblies on climate and nature, while picketing the companies insuring the fossil fuel industry.Gail Bradbrook, XR’s co-founder, told AFP their new-look approach to climate activism strived “to reach more mainstream folks” and do “the deeper work of local organising”.They are, however, planning “mass occupations” over the summer — including one at the start of the Olympic Games opening in Paris on 26 July.Organisers in France say this could last several days but would be “more visible than disruptive”, but have not offered further planning details.Which approach is best at grabbing attention — and which is better at driving change — has been the subject of debate, particularly following polarising stunts targeting famous landmarks.When two Just Stop Oil activists threw orange cornflour on Stonehenge in June “they got a heck more media attention than by spraying paint on airfields,” said Dana Fisher, a sociologist at American University in Washington DC.The goal of these “shock” actions “is to make people mad”, Fisher said. The more people talked about the protest, the more they discussed the climate issue, she added.Several studies in the UK and Germany showed that public concern about climate change stayed the same — or even increased — after acts of civil disobedience even if most people were unsupportive of such stunts.“Historically, there is substantial evidence that shows that the radical flank drives support for the cause and moderate factions,” said Fisher.But between “gluing yourself to something, blocking a bank or throwing soup, which is more effective, we do not know yet,” she added.For Jamie Henn, co-founder of campaign group 350.org and director of Fossil Free Media, “confrontational tactics work best when they’re confronting the source of the problem”.“Mainstreaming the idea that we can finally go fossil free needs to be a top priority for the climate movement,” he said.Laura Thomas-Walters, a social scientist at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, said political change was achieved “by targeting the people of power propping up the status quo, and we need to do it in a sustained way”.

The emergence of Covid-pandemic in early 2020 marked the beginning of a period of significant bouts of volatility in commodity markets.For crude oil, in particular, major global events represented substantial shocks to markets, leading to extreme upward and downward swings in relatively short periods of time.Initially, the Covid-pandemic represented a major negative shock to demand, given large-scale global lockdowns.This led to a temporary collapse in market conditions, as inventories were above full capacity whilst demand was at multi-decade lows. The price of Brent crude, the most relevant benchmark for global oil markets, bottomed at $19 per barrel mark in April 2020, QNB said in an earlier report.After the peak, crude prices corrected significantly. On the demand side, given the slowdown in advanced economies, and the relatively moderate strength of the reopening of economic activity in China from ‘Zero-Covid’ policies.On the supply side, Opec+ increased output to counterbalance the expected excess demand, while major economies (US, Europe, and China) managed emergency releases of strategic oil reserves.As a result, there was a correction in oil prices in 2023 to an average of $82 per barrel, QNB noted previously.Importantly, supply and demand balanced, stabilising prices around the annual average, which fluctuated between a low of $71 and a maximum of $94 per barrel. These are milder variations relative to the large swings in 2022, when prices had moved between a low of $75 and the peak of $128 per barrel.Last month, oil prices gained amid challenges mainly due to the prospects of higher Opec+ supplies. Oil prices finished higher in June, lifted by resurfacing geopolitical tensions and the prospect of rate cuts by key central banks in the second half of the year, points out National Bank of Kuwait (NBK).Prices recovered from their sharp post-Opec+ meeting falls of early June when markets grew concerned that the group’s decision to unwind 2024’s voluntary production cuts from October onwards and into 2025 would push the market into surplus territory.NBK maintains its forecast for Brent to average $85/barrel in 2024, helped by projected solid oil demand and tighter market balances in this quarter.From fourth quarter (Q4) onwards, market balances are expected to loosen with the scheduled unwinding of Opec+ supply cuts, but these will only take place, Opec+ says, if market conditions warrant them and at a pace slow enough to make the effect on balances and prices limited and manageable.Downside risks to the price outlook are worth highlighting, however. The most important is global economic growth and the potential for activity to underwhelm in H2-2024, which would likely require non-OECD and especially Chinese economic growth to slow.Partially offsetting this, though, would be the fairly good prospect of an uptick in economic activity in OECD countries, helped by looser monetary policy.Many analysts believe crude oil prices are expected to stabilise near current levels, as physical markets will tighten on the back of decelerating supply growth and still robust global demand.

Industrial policy is back in vogue. After decades of eschewing the use of market-shaping policy tools like tariffs and subsidies, many Western governments have embraced them, spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic, which exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, and by broader fears about Chinese technological and commercial dominance, which could cost the West countless well-paying jobs. If these efforts are to succeed, however, an emphasis on knowledge is crucial.Industrial policy has a poor track record in the West. When postwar governments tried it, they usually failed to achieve their goals, because they supported industries with no viable path to profitability. By the 1970s and 1980s, they abandoned industrial policy altogether. But if we view industrial policy as knowledge policy, its comeback can succeed.An effective knowledge policy would focus less on creation of knowledge than on its diffusion. While innovation is clearly valuable, it is also expensive and challenging, requiring a particular combination of conditions that is often difficult to ensure. Not every country can realistically aspire to be a technological frontier. But a country does not have to produce cutting-edge innovations of its own to be able to reap the benefits (including higher productive capacity, greater wealth, and stronger military capabilities) of new processes, methods, and ideas produced elsewhere.Knowledge diffusion – which depends on both access to knowledge and the ability to absorb it – is the key to a prosperous society. The German and Japanese economies recovered rapidly after World War II largely because, while their physical infrastructure was in ruins, their stock of knowledge was intact. Both countries had a cohort of engineers, doctors, scientists, and managers capable of absorbing, spreading, applying, and building upon the advanced knowledge brought by occupying American forces.Recognising the value of such knowledge transfers, one might ask why the state needs to get involved. The answer is that knowledge diffusion is the quintessential externality. When an individual or a firm invests in knowledge, it typically captures only a fraction of the returns: knowledge acquisition often brings far higher social returns than private gains. This explains why the state has long supported and incentivised knowledge production, such as by creating a patent system and strengthening education.An effective knowledge policy must include both domestic and international components. On the domestic front, it requires a targeted education policy, subsidies encouraging local actors to import knowledge, and a flexible intellectual property (IP) framework, which strikes the right balance between motivating innovation and encouraging its diffusion. Countries that are far from the technological frontier are better off with lax IP regimes, such as the one that enabled India to build a thriving pharmaceutical industry. (Membership in the World Trade Organisation has since driven India to adhere to stricter rules.)In a geopolitically fragmented world, such domestic measures must be complemented by free-trade zones to facilitate knowledge-sharing among partner countries. These zones would allow for specialisation in some areas, but not in all. Economists’ obsession with comparative advantage notwithstanding, this is not necessarily a bad thing. After all, a country at the technological frontier – or close enough that it can continue to absorb new knowledge – is likely to be a more productive and prosperous economic partner.When it comes to importing technology, countries should erect barriers only in sectors where catch-up is both achievable and desirable (the same sectors where direct subsidies might also be justified). In this sense, the United States and the European Union have much better reason to invest in strengthening their domestic semiconductor industries than India, which is so far behind in this area that any resources spent on catching up are probably wasted. But even the US risks failing to achieve its semiconductor ambitions, unless it also implements an education policy that encourages the study of engineering. Taiwan leads the world in semiconductor production thanks not only to its vast knowhow, but also to its appropriately educated workforce.But even for an economy with the right capabilities, if too many of its peers are trying to catch up in the same area, the costs of the strategy will rise, and the probability of success will drop. This brings us to another reason why free-trade zones are useful: they can facilitate policy co-ordination, at least among allies. India would be far more willing to abandon its semiconductor ambitions if it knew it could rely on a steady supply from a trusted partner.To be sure, that partner might make demands of its own – say, for India to strengthen its IP enforcement, which would be very costly. But, in today’s tense and divided world, such trade-offs are practically inevitable. A sensible knowledge policy must recognise the constraints under which allies operate.Western governments are bringing back industrial policy at a particularly fraught moment. Strategic considerations cannot be ignored, as they were during the decades when globalisation was progressing rapidly, and Pax Americana remained firmly in place. Instead, leaders must rise to the challenge and devise sophisticated industrial-military strategies – including knowledge policies – that account for a wide range of risks, objectives, and pressures. — Project Syndicate• Tano Santos is Professor of Finance at Columbia Business School.•Luigi Zingales, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, is Co-Host of the podcast Capitalisn’t.POINTS TO PONDER• Knowledge diffusion is essential: A successful industrial policy should focus on the diffusion of knowledge rather than merely its creation. This involves both access to and the ability to absorb and apply new knowledge, which can significantly contribute to a country’s productivity and prosperity.• State involvement in knowledge policy: State involvement is necessary in knowledge diffusion because it is an externality that brings higher social returns than private gains. Effective knowledge policy should include targeted education policies, subsidies for importing knowledge, and a flexible intellectual property framework that balances innovation and diffusion.• Strategic co-ordination through Free-Trade Zones: The use of free-trade zones to facilitate knowledge-sharing among partner countries is instructive. This co-ordination can help countries specialise in certain areas and avoid redundant efforts in sectors where catch-up is impractical, thereby enhancing overall economic productivity and strategic alignment among allies.