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Airfares remain more than 10% higher in several markets as international air traffic rebounds and seat capacity is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.A recent study covering 60,000 routes in some 19 countries showed that several key markets experienced significant airfare increases on both domestic and international routes. The airfare study was undertaken by ACI APAC & MID in partnership with Flare Aviation Consulting.Several markets experienced significant airfare increases. The study showed a sharp rise in domestic airfares during the first half of 2024 compared to 2019 levels. Notable increases were seen in key domestic markets such as India (+43%), Vietnam (+63%), Malaysia (+36%), Thailand (+26%), and Australia (+21%), all of which heavily rely on domestic air travel.Despite the anticipated recovery in international seat supply in these countries, airfares remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.In India and Vietnam, international fares rose by 16%, Malaysia by 21%, Australia by 14%, and Thailand by 7%, with low-cost carriers (LCCs) contributing to the sharpest increases.The study also notes that low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the Asia-Pacific region have demonstrated greater resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic, increasing their market share and bargaining power, further influencing airfare trends.In the Middle East, traffic volumes have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in most countries by second quarter (Q2) 2024. Countries such as Bahrain (+24%), Qatar (+27%), Saudi Arabia (+30%), and the United Arab Emirates (+39%) have experienced robust traffic growth.Market analysts say rising airfares can indeed become a barrier for potential customers, especially for price-sensitive travellers. They include leisure travellers, students, and lower-income groups.Even among business travellers, where demand has traditionally been more inelastic, shifts are being seen in behaviour as companies adapt to cost-cutting measures and increased acceptance of virtual meetings, post-pandemic.For many passengers, especially those travelling for leisure, the demand is relatively elastic. As fares rise, these customers may reduce the frequency of their trips, switch to more budget-friendly options, or choose alternative travel modes.Increased fares for full-service airlines tend to drive travellers toward budget airlines, which continue to focus on leaner operational models and ancillary revenue (fees for extras like seat selection or checked bags) to keep fares relatively low.Another challenge, analysts say, is that higher costs might prompt more businesses to replace some trips with virtual meetings. Although in-person interactions are sometimes essential, many businesses have realised that video conferencing can effectively substitute for face-to-face meetings in a number of scenarios.Commenting on the study, Emmanuel Menanteau, President of ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East and Regional Director, VINCI Airports, said: “Affordable airfares is crucial not only for ensuring accessibility to air travel but also for supporting the economic vitality of our communities. Excessive fare increases can discourage passengers, hinder connectivity, and ultimately impact the growth of our sector. It is critical to keep air travel within reach for all, allowing our airports and local economies to thrive together.”Stefano Baronci, Director General, ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East, said: “While passenger numbers in Asia-Pacific are returning to pre-pandemic levels this year, many travellers are paying significantly more, especially on domestic routes. This indicates that the demand for air travel is likely higher than in 2019.“We must ensure that rising airfares do not become a barrier for potential customers. Passengers deserve transparency about these costs. Airfares result from a complex pricing system set by airlines, influenced by demand and supply, price elasticity, competition on any given route. For example, routes that are reliant on a single airline saw fare increases of over 25%, while those with steady competition experienced only about a 10% rise.”Baronci added: “It is important to note that the increase in airfares is not related to airport charges. Considering the airlines' cost structure, fuel prices and inflation have a much greater impact than airport charges. For a long time, airport charges have represented a stable component of airlines' operating costs, averaging around 4%. From 2019-2024, airport charges have decreased by 7% for domestic flights and increased by only 6% for international flights, making their influence on the recent spike in airfares in the region negligible”.In the long term, if airfares continue to rise without accompanying increases in income or economic growth, they could limit consumer access to air travel, particularly for discretionary trips.

The return of Donald Trump, who had railed at the loss of US jobs to overseas competitors, has brought the spotlight again on his proposed tariffs.The first Trump administration from 2016 used tariffs as a key tool to negotiate better deals from its trading partners. Now, Trump, who on November 5 won his bid for a second term, says he will dramatically increase taxes on imports and put them at the centre of his economic policy.Trump has proposed raising tariffs to 60% for goods imported from China and to 20% for those brought in from the rest of the world. The US currently imposes tariffs in those ranges and higher on select categories of goods, but to levy them at that level across the board would be a radical change.Currently, for imported industrial goods, which make up 94% of US merchandise imports by value, the country has a trade-weighted average tariff rate of 2%, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.Half of industrial goods enter the US duty free. According to a Bloomberg Economics analysis released in October, Trump’s tariff proposals “would bring average US levies above 20%, a level not seen since the early 20th century.”Trump can raise tariffs unilaterally although in some cases it would be necessary to first have a finding by one of the federal agencies that report to the president.Tariffs are actually paid by the importer, or an intermediary acting on the importer’s behalf, though the costs are typically passed on. Trump argues that ultimately exporters pay for tariffs. Studies have shown the burden is more diffuse.The foreign company that makes the product may decide to lower prices to appease the importer. Or it might spend significant sums to build a factory somewhere else to sidestep the tariff. Or an importer — Walmart and Target are among the biggest in the US — could raise the prices consumers pay at the checkout counter.Admitted to the WTO in 2001, China gained greater access to global markets even as its critics say it broke the letter and spirit of free-trade rules.China’s trade surplus is on track to hit a fresh record this year, aggravating an imbalance in global commerce that risks provoking Trump.The difference between Chinese exports and imports is set to reach almost $1tn if it continues to widen at the same pace as it has in the year to date, according to Bloomberg calculations.During Trump’s first presidency, his administration imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports that were worth about $380bn in 2018 and 2019. The Biden administration maintained those levies and raised more of them this year on goods worth an additional $18bn.The European Union voted in early October to impose duties as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China, which in turn has threatened to retaliate against European products.Economists are still untangling the inflationary effects of Trump’s initial tariffs from a much bigger shock to supply chains and economic activity that started not long after the US-China trade war began: the Covid-19 pandemic.In February 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that the tariffs were adding 0.1 percentage point to consumer price inflation and 0.4 percentage point to a metric that measures the costs for businesses to invest.Trump’s tariff proposals could reduce American consumers’ spending power between $46bn and $78bn each year, according to a National Retail Federation study.With arguably the world’s most powerful job in hand, President-elect Trump has a duty to do. While he has to bring a deeply-divided nation together, he should also demonstrate to the world that he really is seeking partnership and common ground.Make no mistake, in a globalised world, no country can ensure quality growth with inward-looking isolation and restrictive trade protection.

Paying rich dividends to the policies and efforts of the country, the diabetes prevalence in Qatar, as per the findings of the STEPwise Survey 2023, stands at 15.35%, marking a drop of 1.35% compared to the previous survey in 2012.This was announced by Sheikh Dr Mohamed bin Hamad al-Thani, Director, Non-Communicable Diseases Prevention Programmes Department, Ministry of Public Health, on Monday, at a diabetes care symposium at the University of Doha for Science and Technology (UDST).“In the STEPwise survey of 2023, there is a 1.35% decrease among the respondents having high fasting glucose or being treated for high fasting glucose compared to the previous survey in 2012. In the 2012 STEPWise survey it was 16.70% and it has been reduced to 15.35% as per the latest survey,” he explained.A total of 7,448 people participated in the 2023 survey, including 3,459 women and 3,989 men, aged 18-69. The respondents comprised a total of 3,686 Qataris (2,106 males and 1,580 females) and 3,762 non-Qataris (1,883 males and 1,879 females), according to the official, who clarified that the 2012 survey covered only Qataris.The 2023 survey assessed several risk factors. It included behavioural risks including tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity; biological risk factors of overweight and obesity, raised blood pressure, raised blood glucose and abnormal blood lipids.There were three different steps of risk factor assessment such as questionnaire, physical measurements and blood and urine samples.Sheikh Dr Mohammed pointed out that the 2023 survey was delayed due to Covid-19 pandemic. He also revealed several other findings of the survey suggesting steady progress in several areas of non-communicable diseases and risk factors.“In Obesity, there is a decrease from 41.40% in 2012 to 39.20% in 2023 marking a steady improvement. Similarly, the percentage of respondents who smoke has come down from 16.40% in 2012 to 12.50% in 2023. There is a decrease of 3.9% in smokers.”Sheikh Dr Mohamed said there is also a 14% reduction in the number of respondents having three or more risk factors. It was 50.6%in 2012 and 36.7% in 2023. However, there is a decrease of 14.9% in people who do not eat enough fruits and vegetables compared to the previous survey and the respondents in 2023 spent 17 minutes less per day doing physical activity in comparison with the previous survey.According to Sheikh Dr Mohammed, Qatar’s multifaceted approach has shown progress in addressing non-communicable diseases in the country and continued efforts are essential for a healthier future. He also urged the communities to leave their smartphones for some time on a daily basis and engage in more physical activities regularly.“The improvement could at least partially be attributed to the policies implemented so far and various interventions at different stages. Despite the improvements, non-communicable diseases along with risk factors still impose a great threat to the population. Continued efforts in health promotion, health in all policies and the Healthy Cities initiative are crucial for a healthier future,” he added.

Donald Trump won the state of Arizona in this week’s US presidential election, US TV networks projected, completing the Republican’s sweep of all seven swing states.After four days of counting in the southwest state with a large Hispanic population, CNN and NBC projected Trump had obtained its 11 electoral votes as he defeated Vice-President Kamala Harris.Outgoing President Joe Biden scored a narrow but crucial victory in Arizona in 2020 that condemned Trump to defeat after his first term in office.The scale and strength of Trump’s comeback, which also saw the real estate tycoon win the popular vote by a margin of around four million votes, has sent shockwaves through the defeated Democratic Party.The Republicans have already regained control of the Senate and look well set to retain a majority in the House of Representatives thanks to support from white working class voters and a large share of Hispanics.CNN has called Republican victories for 213 seats in the House, with 218 needed for a majority in the lower chamber.The networks’ figures show Democrats on 205 seats, although senior party figures are still hoping they can pull off a slim victory that would significantly curtail Trump’s powers.NBC sees the Republicans with 212 seats so far, and 204 for the Democrats.The other six swing states won by Trump in the presidential race are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia.The latest good news for Trump came as the White House said Biden would meet with the president-elect at the White House on Wednesday.Trump — who never conceded his 2020 loss — sealed a remarkable comeback to the presidency in the November 5 vote, cementing what is set to be more than a decade of US politics dominated by his hardline right-wing stance.This type of meeting between the outgoing and incoming presidents was considered customary, but Trump did not invite Biden for one after making unsubstantiated election fraud claims that culminated in the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.Trump also broke with precedent by skipping Biden’s inauguration, but the White House has said the Democratic president will attend the upcoming ceremony.Biden’s meeting with Trump will take place in the Oval Office, the White House said Saturday, with the clock ticking down to the ex-president’s return to power.Trump, the 78-year-old ex-reality TV star, won wider margins than before, despite a criminal conviction, two impeachments while in office and warnings from his former chief of staff that he is a fascist.Exit polls showed that voters’ top concerns remained the economy and inflation that spiked under Biden in the wake of the Covid pandemic. The 81-year-old president, who dropped out of the White House race in July over concerns about his age, health and mental acuity, called Trump on Wednesday to congratulate him on the election win.Democrats have been pointing fingers over who is to blame for Harris’ decisive loss after she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket roughly 100 days before the election.Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi took aim at Biden, telling The New York Times that “had the president gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race.”As the Democrats weigh what went wrong, Trump has begun to assemble his second administration by naming campaign manager Susie Wiles to serve as his White House chief of staff.She is the first woman to be named to the high-profile role and the Republican’s first appointment to his incoming administration.Trump on Saturday ruled out re-appointing two senior figures from his first administration, secretary of state Mike Pompeo and UN ambassador Nikki Haley.Abrasive former ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell is seen as a frontrunner for the secretary of state position, as is Florida Senator Marco Rubio who called Trump a “con artist” and the “most vulgar person to ever aspire to the presidency” in 2016.The other frontrunners for a place in the Trump 2.0 administration reflect the significant changes it is likely to implement.Robert F Kennedy Jr, a leading figure in the anti-vaccine movement for whom Trump has pledged a “big role” in health care, told NBC News on Wednesday that “I’m not going to take away anybody’s vaccines.”The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, could also be in line for a job auditing government waste after the right-wing SpaceX, Tesla and X boss enthusiastically backed Trump.

Investors hoping for a “Goldilocks” moment for emerging markets in 2025 following years of global interest rate hikes are grappling with significant uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House.The dollar’s rigorous rally, and worries over US tariffs, potential unfunded spending sprees and slowing interest rate cuts from the Fed knocked a string of emerging market currencies and weighed on some bonds as the election results rolled in.Now, investors are tallying up the likely costs of Trump’s policies for developing world assets.“Although we’ve been positive on emerging market assets this year, and performance has been strong, we have to think about next year and position ourselves in a more cautious way in both local currency and hard currency,” said Yerlan Syzdykov, global head of emerging markets at Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager.The prospect of a ‘red sweep’ - with Republicans also taking control of the House, in addition to the presidency and the Senate - would be a “bit of a game changer”, Syzdykov said.Investor inflows to emerging markets have been rebounding after painful years of low risk appetite during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic that stayed subdued as central banks worldwide hiked rates. This led investors to keep their money in safer developed world assets.Net portfolio inflows into developing economies’ stocks and bonds, which fell to virtually nothing in 2022, have rebounded to just under $250bn through September this year, above the $177bn for all of last year, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.“Before the election, there was a lot of optimism around emerging markets,” said Anders Faergemann, senior portfolio manager with PineBridge Investments, noting that emerging market growth differentials versus the developed world were at their highest in a decade.JPMorgan’s emerging market hard-currency bond index has returned around 6% this year, while local government bonds are treading water.This might mirror 2016, when EM local currency bore the brunt of Trump’s surprise election win, Allianz Global Investors said in a note to clients.Faergemann said the Trump win left China under pressure, and emerging market currencies, including Poland’s zloty and Hungary’s forint, which slumped to a two-year low, are at risk due to their reliance on trade - and the risk of Trump tariffs.Mexico’s peso - a bellwether for emerging market currencies - dropped as much as 3.6% this week after Trump’s sweep became clear, but quickly retraced losses. The decline was much less pronounced than the near-8% drop it suffered in 2016.Many are watching closely for clues on Trump’s spending - and the impact that could have on the Fed interest rate trajectory; higher fiscal deficits could lead to slower rate cuts.“Higher rates and a strong US dollar are a headwind...(as are) some of the proposed policies like tariffs,” said Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.But some optimism remains.Countries such as India could benefit from Trump’s hardline approach to China, Amundi’s Syzdykov said, while Argentina has also lured investors back with spending cuts and reform.“There are certain sectors, countries that could benefit from a Trump victory,” said Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS Asset Management. “You can generate a lot of value in an emerging market portfolio.”A sea change in geopolitics could fuel other turnaround stories.Ukraine’s international bonds and GDP warrants rallied strongly after Trump’s win, lifted by optimism he could hasten the end of its war with Russia.Argentina’s stocks and bonds also rallied as investors cheered potentially closer ties between Trump and Argentina’s brash libertarian President Javier Milei - part of what has been dubbed the “strongman trade.”Bankers had hoped that this year’s debt issuance boom could continue into 2025. But some worry volatility before and after Trump’s January inauguration - traditionally a heavy issuance month - could impact primary market issuance.Barclays estimates that emerging market sovereign international bond sales will reach as much as $160bn this year, and around $130bn next year.High debt costs could further crimp emerging markets’ access to cash, which is already a key worry for the likes of the International Monetary Fund.But overall, investors say the fear, market gyrations and risk aversion that followed Trump’s 2016 win were less likely this time round - meaning developing countries and assets inside them with a good narrative can continue to attract capital.“We’ve seen Trump before, so we’ve seen that movie before - and we survived,” Amundi’s Syzdykov said.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, China has been experiencing something unfamiliar: deflationary conditions. At this stage in China’s economic development, potential GDP growth is probably in the 5-6% range. But, relative to productive capacity, aggregate demand is far too low to realise this potential.It is not difficult to identify factors that might have weakened external demand. Developed economies, especially the US, have imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods and introduced export restrictions on certain advanced technologies to China. Meanwhile, broader trade frictions are growing, driven partly by sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The re-election of former President Donald Trump likely portends more trade and other restrictions, and another step toward nationalism, unilateralism, and fragmentation in the global system. This is not necessarily a sea change in US-China relations, though 100% tariffs would be. Reassembling some version of a multilateral order, however, seems considerably less likely in the near term.That said, China has reached the stage of development where domestic, not external, demand – especially in the non-tradable service sectors – should account for the bulk of aggregate demand. With a GDP of $13,000 per capita, China has become an upper-middle-income economy approaching high-income status. So, the non-tradable part of its economy should be approaching the size seen in high-income countries: two-thirds of GDP.This means that even very strong demand for China’s exports, or strong tradable demand more broadly, could not offset a large shortfall in non-tradable demand. The barriers to Chinese growth primarily reflect weak aggregate domestic demand, largely owing to a shortfall in household consumption.Relatively high unemployment, combined with uncertainty about the economy’s prospects, has encouraged Chinese households – already big savers by global standards – to double down on precautionary saving. More importantly, the declining value of real estate, which accounts for an estimated 70% of Chinese household wealth, has significant negative effects on consumption. As the US learned after the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-10, repairing balance-sheet damage in the household sector is no easy feat, let alone one that can be achieved quickly.Subdued real-estate activity has also affected local-government finances, which have long depended heavily on land sales and real-estate revenues. Rising fiscal distress among local governments compounds deflationary pressures.A second reason for China’s domestic-demand shortfall is low investment in the private corporate sector. Weak domestic demand for final goods and services is one underlying factor; declining confidence, rooted in a lack of clarity about the relationship between the private sector and the large state-owned corporate sector, is another. Inward foreign direct investment has also declined, owing to trade and investment restrictions and geopolitical tensions, though the impact on China’s economy is less significant.In the past, public investment has been a major engine of Chinese aggregate demand. During China’s three decades of very rapid growth, gross capital formation – much of it government-directed – amounted to upwards of 40% of GDP. But fiscally strained local governments have less room to pursue the kinds of massive investments seen in the past, and a recovery in investment would have only a limited impact on future growth. Overinvesting solely to fill a gap in aggregate demand is unwise, as Chinese policymakers well know.Today’s deflationary conditions might be unfamiliar to China, but they are not entirely surprising. The transition from an export- and investment-led growth model to one based on domestic consumption and innovation amounts to a fundamental structural transformation. It would be more shocking if all components of this shift were perfectly synchronised.In any case, the policy response is already underway. For starters, the government is pursuing a set of measures aimed at stabilising the real-estate sector without fuelling a new bubble. For example, China will nearly double credit lines for unfinished housing projects, in order to enable their completion and protect households that have pre-purchased apartments from losing their entire investment. Since excess capacity cannot be reversed, the best option is to write it off quickly.At the same time, the Chinese government has been working to clarify the roles of the private and state-owned sectors. Over time, this should restore confidence and stimulate private-sector investment (provided the messaging remains consistent). Recent efforts to encourage the public and private sectors to adopt a more entrepreneurial mindset will also help to invigorate parts of the economy and bureaucracy that are being held back by a fear of making mistakes.A comprehensive assessment of China’s economic prospects should not focus solely on its weaknesses. The economy has many important strengths, not least abundant scientific, technological, and entrepreneurial talent. This has already contributed to China’s progress – and, in some cases, leadership – in a number of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy, and some areas of biomedical and life sciences. It will bring even greater benefits once the current imbalances are addressed.China has another important advantage. Many developing economies fail to realise their growth potential, because government policies do not support – and, in some cases, actively resist – structural change. China does not have that problem. Its government recognises the importance of technology-driven structural transformation, and devises policies (and directs investment) accordingly.In this sense, it can be considered good news that the growth headwinds China is facing today are not primarily the result of a more hostile external environment (though this does not help). Rather, they stem largely from internal imbalances and policy-induced uncertainty – problems the Chinese government has the skill and capacity to address. For example, fiscal stimulus focused on supporting consumption can help to smooth out the rebalancing process and prevent a self-reinforcing downward spiral.The challenges China faces are daunting, but not insurmountable. With a clear and well-targeted policy approach, growth momentum can be restored within 2-3 years. – Project SyndicatelMichael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Emeritus Professor of Economics and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and a co-author (with Mohamed A. El-Erian, Gordon Brown, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World (Simon & Schuster, 2023).

Last month, returning to Japan for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, I was struck by how significantly prices had increased. In February 2020, a simple lunch in downtown Tokyo cost about JP¥1,000, then the equivalent of about $10; today, it costs more like JP¥2,000. To some extent, this mirrors the experience in the US, where, even as inflation moderates, prices remain well above their pre-pandemic levels. The difference is that Japan has also experienced a sharp currency depreciation, which benefits foreign visitors: that JP¥2,000 bill translated to just $13.My visit coincided with the election of a new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who had just eked out a victory in a tight race within his Liberal Democratic Party. But I have some reservations about whether Ishiba will pursue the economic policies Japan needs.In a private conversation with Ishiba in the early 2000s, while I was head of the Economic and Social Research Institute at the Cabinet Office, I noted that the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s excessively austere monetary policy was hurting Japanese industry. Ishiba – then a member of the lower house of the Japanese Diet (parliament) – responded that, since monetary policy is technical and complex, the government would continue following the opinions and advice of BoJ experts.This deference has merit. The BoJ, as well as the Ministry of Finance and other organs, benefits from a solid pool of talent, as well as deep knowledge of how and why past policies – monetary, fiscal, and otherwise – have or have not worked. Their advice should therefore be heeded – to a point. The problem is that government technocrats tend to favour familiar policy approaches, even when they are not actually what the economy needs.Japanese monetary policy after 1990 reflects precisely this bias. Japan’s post-World War II economic boom had been fuelled partly by an undervalued yen. But, in 1985, Japan – along with the rest of the G5 – signed onto the Plaza Accord, an agreement to devalue the surging US dollar relative to the yen, the French franc, pound sterling, and the Deutsche Mark. With that, Japan’s economic miracle came to a rapid end.Yet for the next three decades, successive BoJ governors remained committed to maintaining a stronger yen, with all its deflationary implications. One of them, Masaru Hayami, once commented to me (before becoming BoJ governor) that, as a central banker, the undervalued post-war yen had made him “miserable.” In other words, politicians’ commitment to listening to the experts at the BoJ, with their distinct central-bank bias, contributed directly to Japan’s post-1990 “lost decades” of deflation and stagnant growth.This changed when prime minister Abe Shinze came to power in 2012. Thanks to a sound understanding of economics, Abe knew better than to follow central bankers blindly. At the same time, he recognised the importance of putting the right person at the top of the BoJ. So, he selected Haruhiko Kuroda, who committed to pursuing the monetary expansion that Japan badly needed.A country’s monetary policy does not directly dictate its exchange rate. What matters is the money supply relative to that of other countries. In 2012, Japan was living in a world of low interest rates. So, to prevent excessive yen appreciation – which would stifle Japanese industry – the BoJ had to keep its own interest rates low, even negative. Through unprecedented monetary easing, starting in 2013, Kuroda managed to ensure that the production costs of traded goods remained just low enough to keep Japanese exports competitive, giving the economy a significant boost.Since then, however, the global monetary-policy environment has changed dramatically. A post-pandemic surge in inflation spurred major central banks to hike interest-rates aggressively, beginning in 2022. Though interest rates have come down, they remain relatively high: the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate, for example, stands at nearly 5%. The interest-rate differential between Japan and its major trading partners spurred Japanese investors to move their savings into foreign currencies, where they received higher interest rates – and caused the yen to depreciate.Japan’s economy undoubtedly suffers when the yen is too strong; that is why I have often advocated for more expansionary monetary policy. But lower is not always better. And today’s dollar exchange rate of around ¥152 is simply too low. The undervalued yen is already contributing to labour shortages in certain sectors (such as construction), encouraging excessive tourism, and discouraging Japanese students from studying abroad. Moreover, it raises the risk of a dangerous inflationary surge.In this context, a dollar exchange rate of around ¥120 would be far preferable. To this end, the BOJ should immediately adopt a conventional short-term interest-rate policy. If this proves to be too restrictive, the BOJ can return to more relaxed policy arrangements. Fortunately, while I do worry that Ishiba might put too much stock in central bankers’ opinions, he currently seems inclined toward the tighter monetary-policy approach that Japan needs. – Project SyndicatelKoichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus at Yale University, was a special adviser to former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinze.

Donald Trump won a sweeping victory yesterday in the US presidential election, defeating Kamala Harris to complete an astonishing political comeback that sent shock waves around the world.The polarising Republican’s triumph, following one of the most hostile campaigns in modern American history, was all the more remarkable given his criminal conviction, a near-miss assassination attempt, and warnings from a former chief of staff that Trump is a “fascist.”“It’s a political victory that our country has never seen before,” the president-elect told supporters overnight in Florida.Supporters chanted “USA!” as the 78-year-old added that his “magnificent” win would “allow us to make America great again.”World leaders swiftly pledged to work with Trump, led by Israel and Ukraine where the course of raging conflicts could depend on the new president and his isolationist “America First” policies.Vice-President Harris, who only entered the race in July after the visibly ageing President Joe Biden dropped out, ran a centrist campaign that highlighted Trump’s inflammatory messaging and use of racist and sexist tropes.But his apocalyptic warnings about immigration found their mark with voters battered by the post-Covid economy and eager for change after the Biden years.Hispanic and Black Americans were seen as crucial voting blocs for Harris, but exit polls showed they tilted toward Trump in numbers far greater than in 2020.Opinion polls predicted a nail-bitingly close contest — yet the results came surprisingly fast, including Trump’s flipping of swing states Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Biden won four years ago.Trump captured enough states to secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. By late yesterday the count stood at 292 for him and 224 for Harris.He appeared on track to win the popular vote too — the first time he has done so in three presidential runs.Republicans closed in on complete control of the US government as they voiced confidence in retaining the US House of Representatives to deliver Trump a sweeping mandate for radical policy changes at home and abroad.Having already captured the White House and Senate on a blockbuster night in Tuesday’s election, the party will likely be able to complete the trifecta by holding its tiny majority in the lower chamber of Congress, according to the Cook Political Report.More than 40 House races remain uncalled and it could take a week or more to determine overall control because of tight races in several states that take longer to count their ballots, such as California and New York.Trump is the first president in more than a century to win a non-consecutive second term.He is also the only person to be elected as a convicted felon — he will face sentencing in a New York court for fraud on November 26.The brash businessman and former reality TV star is on course to break another record as the oldest-ever sitting president during his four-year term. He will surpass Biden, who steps down in January at 82.The dollar surged, stocks rallied and bitcoin struck a record high as news of Trump’s victory emerged.But turmoil likely lies ahead.He has repeatedly suggested he would end the conflict in Ukraine by pressuring Kyiv to cede land to Russia, and his threat of mass deportations of undocumented immigrants has stirred concern in Latin America.He also returns to the White House as a climate change denier, poised to dismantle his predecessor’s green policies and jeopardise global efforts to curb human-caused warming.Among foreign leaders rushing to send congratulations were his allies Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Also messaging Trump was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is predicted to see a rapid reduction in US military aid once Biden exits.Zelensky said he hoped Trump would help his country find a “just peace.”The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin, on whom Trump has often lavished praise, did not plan to congratulate him.For all his dark promises of revenge against enemies, Trump remains famously unpredictable.His campaign rallies, filled with grievance, insults and misinformation, featured extreme rhetoric.But he earned viral online moments that played on his everyman appeal and showman’s instinct — like his appearance at a McDonald’s drive-thru and impromptu news conference from a garbage truck.Star supporters like tech baron Elon Musk also helped him appeal to young men.Trump campaigned on tax cuts, less regulation and sky-high import tariffs to promote growth and boost manufacturing, despite warnings of trade wars and higher prices for consumers.His victory was spurred by post-pandemic inflation that pushed up consumer prices by more than 20% percent, and he now stands to reap the benefits of an economy in good shape.Trump often lurched into foul language and violent imagery. But that hard-charging style drew in many voters who still see him as a Washington outsider.Harris’s message of unity, and warnings of Trump’s threat to democracy left her short of what would have been a historic win as America’s first woman president.

South Africa start a four-match Twenty20 international series against India at Kingsmead tomorrow, just over four months after the visitors beat them in the T20 World Cup final.Both squads show significant changes from the sides that played in Barbados, where India lifted the trophy with a seven-run win.South Africa will be missing their three most successful bowlers from the World Cup campaign - fast bowlers Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje and left-arm spinner Tabraiz Shamsi, as well as batsman-wicketkeeper Quinton de Kock.With most of India’s leading players preparing for a Test series in Australia, there are only four survivors from the World Cup-winning team - captain Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Panday, Axar Patel and Arshdeep Singh. South African coach Rob Walter acknowledged the reality of having to prepare a team at a time of congested and often conflicting schedules.“The worlds of short-form cricket, leagues and Test matches are starting to encroach on each other. We’re seeing that with other sides around the world having to field two different squads.“We want to be in the same position and know that we’re strong enough to win on both fronts.“Cricket is in a tenuous position and it’s going to take some seriously strong management to make sure that we look after our players first and foremost so that when they do play for South Africa, they’re there to deliver their best performances.”Walter is at least able to call on in-demand franchise stars such as David Miller, Heinrich Klaasen, Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj, which was not the case when South Africa were beaten in their most recent T20 international against Ireland in Abu Dhabi in September.The four matches were originally due to be played on India’s tour of South Africa in 2021/22 but were postponed because of Covid restrictions.The tour will provide a financial bonanza for Cricket South Africa because of revenues from Indian television.It will also provide fringe players in the Indian squad, such as uncapped Ramandeep Singh, Vijaykumar Vyshak and Yash Dayal, a chance to make an impact ahead of the scheduled Indian Premier League player auction in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on November 24-25.Squads: South Africa: Aiden Markram (captain), Ottneil Baartman, Gerald Coetzee, Donovan Ferreira, Reeza Hendricks, Marco Jansen, Heinrich Klaasen (wk), Patrick Kruger, Keshav Maharaj, David Miller, Mihlali Mpongwana, Nqaba Peter, Ryan Rickelton (wk), Andile Simelane, Lutho Sipamla (third and fourth matches only) and Tristan Stubbs.India: Suryakumar Yadav (captain), Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson (wk), Rinku Singh, Tilak Varma, Jitesh Sharma (wk), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Ramandeep Singh, Varun Chakaravarthy, Ravi Bishnoi, Arshdeep Singh, Vijaykumar Vyshak, Avesh Khan, Yash Dayal.Fixtures:November 8, DurbanNovember 10, GqeberhaNovember 13, CenturionNovember 15, Johannesburg

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd plans to start a new round of negotiations to buy long-haul jets from next year as the airline looks to position itself for growth in the next decade.“The end of the decade is not far away. We have got to place our orders now,” Alex McGowan, Chief Operations and Service Delivery Officer said Tuesday. The comments come shortly after the company committed to spending HK$100bn mostly on new aircraft through 2030.McGowan said the likely review of new aircraft purchases would examine widebody jets as small as the Boeing Co 787 and as large as a 777-9.The airline’s next long-haul aircraft order will be “the final component” in a series of deals in recent years, the Cathay executive added, speaking on the sidelines of a CAPA aviation conference in Hong Kong, where the carrier is based.Cathay’s interest in ordering more aircraft opens the door for Boeing after the US planemaker lost out to arch-rival Airbus SE on consecutive single-aisle and widebody passenger and freighter deals. Earlier Tuesday, Boeing workers voted to accept a new labour contract, ending a strike that had crippled jetliner production for 53 days.Cathay is edging towards a full recovery following the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on global travel and is now operating at around 90% of its pre-pandemic flight levels, McGowan said earlier on-stage at the event.

The United States and the world faced a radically transformed political landscape Wednesday after Donald Trump won a crushing election victory, defeating Kamala Harris in an astonishing comeback to the White House.Harris, who had described Trump as a unique threat to democracy but whose campaign in the end underwhelmed voters, was to deliver a concession speech in Washington at 4pm (2100 GMT).Trump, who never conceded defeat four years ago when his supporters ransacked the US Capitol, won wider margins than before despite a criminal conviction, two impeachments while last in office and warnings from his former chief of staff that he is a "fascist."But exit polls showed that voters' top concern remained the economy and inflation that spiked under outgoing President Joe Biden.Both Wall Street and the dollar soared on Trump's victory and his clear mandate, with expectations that he will move aggressively to ramp up growth.Trump, who at 78 will be the oldest president at the time of his January 20 inauguration, vowed to fulfill his slogan to "make America great again" in a victory speech in Florida before supporters chanting "USA!""It's a political victory that our country has never seen before," Trump said.Global leaders swiftly pledged to work with Trump, despite concerns in much of the world about his nationalist-minded "America First" approach.Among the most worried countries will be Ukraine, which Russia invaded in 2022.Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance have scoffed at the billions of dollars in US assistance to Kyiv under Biden, with their aides musing about forcing Kyiv to make concessions to end the war.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Trump and said he hoped the new US leader would help Ukraine find a "just peace."One leader certain to be pleased with Trump was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to whom Trump has promised freer rein to execute his war against Hamas in Gaza.Netanyahu spoke by telephone with Trump on Wednesday after calling his election "history's greatest comeback," choosing the sort of superlative language known to please the president-elect.Harris, who only entered the race in July after the visibly aging President Joe Biden dropped out, ran a centrist campaign that highlighted Trump's inflammatory messaging and use of racist and sexist tropes.But his apocalyptic warnings about immigration found their mark with voters battered by the post-Covid economy and eager for change after the Biden years.Hispanic and Black Americans, seen as crucial voting blocs for Harris, moved in greater numbers toward Trump, who won a majority of Latino men, exit polls showed.Opinion polls had predicted a nail-bitingly close contest -- yet the results came fast, including Trump's flipping of swing states Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Biden won four years ago.Trump appeared on track to win the popular vote, and the Republican Party also won the Senate from the Democrats, boosting his ability to enact his agenda.Trump is the first president in more than a century to win a non-consecutive second term.He is also the only person to be elected as a convicted felon -- he will face sentencing in a New York court for fraud on November 26.His campaign pledges, if carried out, could cause turmoil, especially his vow to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, a massive undertaking.Trump is also a longtime skeptic of climate change who is expected again to reduce US global commitments, although one of his top campaign surrogates was fellow brash billionaire Elon Musk, owner of electric vehicle maker Tesla.For all his dark promises of revenge against enemies, Trump remains famously unpredictable.His campaign rallies, filled with grievance, insults and misinformation, featured extreme rhetoric.But he earned viral online moments that played on his everyman appeal and showman's instinct -- like his appearance at a McDonald's drive-thru and impromptu news conference from a garbage truck.Trump campaigned on tax cuts, less regulation and sky-high import tariffs to promote growth and boost manufacturing, despite warnings of trade wars and higher prices for consumers.His victory was spurred by post-pandemic inflation that pushed up consumer prices by more than 20 percent, and he now stands to reap the benefits of an economy in good shape.Trump often lurched into foul language and violent imagery. But that hard-charging style drew in many voters who still see him as a Washington outsider.Harris's message of unity, focus on abortion rights and warnings of Trump's threat to democracy left her short of what would have been a historic win as America's first woman president.

Georgetown University Qatar (GU-Q) recently hosted a public talk by former Greek ambassador Dimitri Alexandrakis, who currently serves as the university’s Distinguished-Diplomat-in-Residence. The event, titled What Makes a Good Diplomat? provided an in-depth look at the key qualities and experiences that define effective diplomacy and allowed students, faculty, and the public to engage with insights from the seasoned diplomat. Introduced by GU-Q dean, Safwan Masri, Alexandrakis drew from his 42-year career as a diplomat, including his recent tenure as ambassador of Greece to Iran from 2017-2022, a period marked by significant regional challenges and the Covid-19 pandemic. He highlighted the humanitarian side of diplomacy, recounting his role in facilitating one of Greece’s first vaccine donations to Iran’s Red Crescent, underscoring diplomacy’s capacity for positive impact, even amid political complexities. Alexandrakis described the role of an ambassador as a ‘24-hour commitment’ that requires constant engagement and a deep understanding of the host country’s culture and social dynamics. He also noted that humour can be a valuable asset in diplomatic interactions, often helping to ease tensions and foster goodwill. With examples drawn from experiences ranging from ambassadorships in Brazil and Zimbabwe, to serving as Greece’s permanent representative to the UN, and on the Nato delegation, the ambassador shared lessons learned from his career. Reflecting on broader global diplomatic relations involving the US, Iran, Russia, and China, he emphasised that the success of diplomacy hinges on creating the “necessary political space” for human-to-human connections. In his concluding remarks, he affirmed that “world peace depends on more dialogue, more talk,” underscoring the need for sustained communication and co-operation between countries. In a Q&A session following the talk, GU-Q students and the public had the opportunity to engage further with the ambassador on a variety of topics regarding current affairs, and the art and intricacies of diplomacy. Launched in Fall 2023 as dean’s special initiative, Distinguished Diplomat-in-Residence programme is designed to enrich the university experience by providing meaningful opportunities to engage with and learn from distinguished practitioners of diplomacy.