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Deadly Kenyan protests that scuppered tax hikes and a failed coup amid fading economic prospects in Bolivia this week are violent reminders of the dangers posed by faltering economies and punishing austerity measures. Bolivia’s President and former economy minister Luis Arce fended off the putsch on Wednesday, but faces ongoing US dollar shortages and soaring borrowing costs that pushed the country’s credit rating to “junk.” Kenya’s President William Ruto, who reversed support for a tax-hike measure, now must find another path to make his nation’s debt pile of some $80bn more manageable.Around the world, low income nations were sucked into economic crisis — and in some cases, debt default — after the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic decimated parts of the global economy.Now, the crisis is reverberating in Kenya, Bolivia and other middle-income nations bearing the brunt of a surge in inflation and the rapid global interest rate rises that followed the pandemic. Borrowing costs soared and Russia’s war in Ukraine exacerbated a rise in prices of fuel and food. “There are a lot of governments around the world all facing the pain, delayed fiscal pain, from the interest rate hikes that we’ve seen in recent years” said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy with FIM Partners, which invests in emerging market debt.“It’s not a surprise that the country might reach a breaking point.” At least 23 people died in Kenya as protests spiralled from online condemnations of the tax hikes into mass rallies demanding a political overhaul.“It is not just the taxes,” said Mary Ngigi, a 37-year-old clothing company worker in Kenya, on why she was protesting.“When you go to the hospitals, there is no medicine. When you go to the schools, there are no infrastructures.” Turmoil is spreading. In Nigeria, workers protesting rising fuel and food costs caused a nationwide power outage, and leaders face rising subsidy costs despite tripling petrol prices last year.In 2023, a record 54 developing countries, equivalent to 38% of the total, allocated 10% or more of government revenues to interest payments, with nearly half of them in Africa, according to a report from UN Trade and Development agency UNCTAD.Multilateral banks and political risk firms have warned of a ticking time bomb for some time. While debt relief efforts had centred on the poorest nations with solvency problems, and rightly so according to the World Bank, not enough had been done for lower middle-income countries facing temporary liquidity pressures in the near future.“Without action, 2024 will see a further rise in debt vulnerability — potentially leading to reversals in development outcomes,” World Bank senior managing director Axel van Trotsenburg warned.Kenya, like others, borrowed heavily in the mid-2000s, when interest rates were low — and China was splashing cash via its Belt and Road initiative to lend to emerging markets worldwide. Over the past 20 years Kenya amassed some $82bn of debt to build roads, railways and factories. But not all ambitious projects were completed and many Kenyans felt they had not benefited, while a slew of corruption scandals spurred allegations that elites enriched themselves.“There is no cut on corruption,” Boniface Mwangi, a prominent social justice activist in Kenya told Reuters. “We have no problem paying debt, but...what did you do with that money that you borrowed?” Ruto has said he is waging a war on corruption and has called for those responsible for graft to be prosecuted.Kenya managed to avoid default by issuing more debt earlier this year — but at a punishing interest rate above 10%. After this week’s protest, the country’s bond prices slid again.To keep crucial IMF cash coming, Ruto must find a way to balance the books.

Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard begins his quest for a third consecutive Tour de France title today when the peloton heads out of Florence in sizzling heat for an opening stage packed with hills.Fans have flocked into Florence for the Grand Depart of the 111th edition of the Tour, a 21-day 3,498km run that crosses the Alps twice and ends on the French Riviera on July 21.The race is billed as a four-way struggle between Visma’s Vingegaard, former champion and favourite Tadej Pogacar of Team UAE, former Vuelta and Giro champion Red Bull rider Primoz Roglic and Tour newcomer Remco Evenepoel of Soudal Quick-Step.Evenepoel, who won both the Vuelta and the world championships in 2022, has described Pogacar as “untouchable if he stays safe and sound” even though the Slovenian revealed on arrival in Florence that he was recovering from a dose of Covid.The big four all predicted the first two days would feature a scrap for the yellow jersey between Visma’s Wout Van Aert and his eternal rival Mathieu Van der Poel. Van Aert deflected the attention by moaning that he was in “the worst form for a Tour de France of my life” and insisting his role at the Grand Boucle was simply to help Vingegaard.Both men suffered bad falls in the build up to the Tour.World champion Van Der Poel also shrugged off the expectation.“The first two days look too hard for me and (teammate) Jasper (Philipsen),” he said. Day one takes the 176 riders over seven climbs as it crosses Italy to the Adriatic seaside resort of Rimini with its pretty beaches and lidos.Director Christian Prudhomme has promised a brawl from day one, and a Team UAE attack would seem as likely a scenario as any, given they did just that on stage 1 in 2023.Adam Yates is one of four UAE riders described by team leader Pogacar as “superstars”, and he would seem equipped to take the yellow jersey again after beating his twin brother Simon to the line on day one last year.Another Briton, Tom Pidcock, Roglic and even Pogacar himself are also worth keeping an eye on Saturday. Of the Italians gunning for the yellow in Italy, Alberto Bettiol of EF Education First is nailed on to make a bid as the American team have a history of gunning for a day one yellow jersey.The seven climbs are all short and average out at around 6.5 percent incline, making for some explosive racing.Ageing British sprinter Mark Cavendish, 39, is back at the Tour de France as the subject of his own Netflix documentary on his personal quest for one last stage win before riding off into the sunset.The Manx Missile, who was given a knighthood in King Charles’s birthday honours earlier this month, has 34 Tour de France stage wins over his career, the same as Eddy Merckx. “Everybody would love to see Mark win a 35th stage, but just don’t expect us to give him one,” said defending green jersey Mads Pedersen.Winner of the 2020 and 2021 Tour de France, Pogacar won the Giro d’Italia with supreme ease in May and is gunning to become the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 - the year Pogacar was born - to win the rare combination of a Tour-Giro double.His Giro campaign was a parade through Italy in pink, and if his form is unaffected by a bout of Covid 11 days ago this could well happen again in France.One thing in his favour might be the sheer length of the time-trials.Stage seven takes in a flat 25km through the vineyards from Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin while the final stage will provide a jaw-dropping 35km chase along the Riviera from Monaco to Nice.Both will suit Pogacar but as the Slovenian knows only too well, a lot can happen over 21 days and 3,498km of road.

Junior hospital doctors in England on Thursday began a five-day strike, a week before a general election in which the state of the publicly funded National Health Service is a major issue.It follows nearly a dozen similar actions by doctors below specialist, consultant level over the last 18 months.The NHS is grappling with a massive backlog caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and exacerbated by the repeated doctors' strikes.As well as delays to operations and starting cancer treatment, an increasingly dissatisfied public also face long waits to see a doctor at their local surgery.A recent survey suggested that less than a quarter of Britons were satisfied with the NHS, an unprecedented level.The doctors have been asking for 35 percent "pay restoration" as a starting position amid a cost-of-living crisis.They have said they will call off the action if Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak comes to the table with a credible commitment to increase their pay.The strike will run until Tuesday, two days before next Thursday's general election which the main opposition Labour party is expected to win.Labour's health spokesman Wes Streeting has said any Labour government would not meet the 35 percent demand but that there is "space for a discussion".Decades-high inflation in 2023 saw workers from sectors across the economy stage walkouts from teachers to train drivers.The government, quasi-public agencies and private sector firms have resolved many of the other pay disputes, but some remain outstanding, such as with the junior doctors.Sunak's government has said the doctors' demands are unaffordable because of stretched public finances.It has accused the strike organisers of being politically-motivated.

Tadej Pogacar will be the man to beat at the Tour de France, which he enters riding a wave of exceptional results this season, while main rival, defending champion Jonas Vingegaard, starts the event having just recovered from serious injuries.Slovenia’s Pogacar, whose domination of the Tour ended when Vingegaard burst into the limelight, won the Giro d’Italia by an impressive margin.The UAE Emirates leader is now looking to become the first rider to claim a Giro/Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998.This season so far, Pogacar has won the Liege-Bastogne-Liege Monument classic, the Tour of Catalunya and the Strade Bianche one-day race, basically taking victory in all the races he started apart from Milan-Sanremo, in which he finished third.The 25-year-old two-time Tour de France champion will also be backed by a formidable team featuring climbers Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov, Joao Almeida, Marc Soler and Juan Ayuso.Vingegaard, instead, has had no competitive preparation and his team has been hit by the late withdrawal of his mountain lieutenant, Sepp Kuss, as the Vuelta a España champion continues to recover from a Covid infection.Danish Vingegaard, who won the last two editions of the Tour, suffered fractures to his collarbone and rib and a collapsed lung in a crash at the Tour of the Basque Country less than three months ago, and has not raced since.“Being fit, is, of course something else than being in shape or competitive,” said his Visma-Lease a Bike Sports Director Merijn Zeeman. “In any case, Jonas is fit. He really worked extremely hard.”The main concern for Vingegaard is that he will need to be competitive from the very outset of the race.The Tour will be off to an explosive start, with seven categorised climbs in the first stage of the three-week event as the peloton leaves Italy for France in the fourth stage, where the high mountain climbs begin.The first three stages will be on hilly terrain that look to be treacherous.“The Tour will be over in three or four days,” Groupama-FDJ manager Marc Madiot predicted, suggesting an early break by Pogacar to pre-empt any challenges.“Pogacar will break things apart and blow out Vingegaard. In his place, that’s what I’d do to be sure he doesn’t get back on top form.”Behind the duo, three-time Vuelta champion Primoz Roglic, who has left Vingegaard’s team to join Bora-Hansgrohe, will be hoping to get to the podium for the second time after fellow Slovenian, Pogacar, beat him in the final time trial.Belgian prodigy Remco Evenepoel, 24, will make his Tour de France debut, also looking to secure a podium spot after winning the Tour of Spain in 2022.The race starts from Florence on Saturday and, for the first time, will not end in Paris. The Tour’s final time trial will be held between Monaco and Nice as the French capital gears up for the July 26-Aug 11 Olympics.Briton Mark Cavendish will be one of the main attractions as he bids to beat his record of 34 stage wins that he shares with Belgian great Eddy Merckx, delaying a decision to retire after a crash in last year’s Tour for a final season.

Multilateralism, we are told, is in retreat. But we cannot let retrenchment and fragmentation take over. From climate change and biodiversity collapse to the conflicts, geopolitical tension, and turbulence afflicting today’s world, we know that overcoming global challenges requires renewed and strengthened forms of global co-operation.Fortunately, there is real cause for optimism that new and innovative partnerships can shape a better world. And perhaps, nowhere is multilateralism’s track record better, and the potential rewards so great, as when we work together to improve global health outcomes.Over the past several decades, multilateralism, solidarity, and partnership have driven stunning victories against infectious diseases, transforming the lives of some of the world’s most marginalised communities. Global child mortality, for example, has halved since 2000, and one of the primary reasons has been immunisation.Few endeavours promise as much for humanity over the coming years as immunisation. Scientific breakthroughs have led to new and more effective vaccines, including the world’s first malaria vaccine, which is currently being rolled out in several African countries. And innovation is playing a key role in enabling more countries than ever before to produce and access vaccines.On June 20, a month before the world unites for the next Olympic Games, leaders from national governments, civil society, and the private sector came together in Paris for “Protecting Our Future: The Global Forum for Vaccine Sovereignty and Innovation”. Co-hosted by France on behalf of Team Europe (which includes the European Union, EU member states, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), the African Union (AU), and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the meeting embodied the spirit of solidarity underlying these achievements.While half of Africa is currently suffering from a new outbreak of cholera, which has become endemic in the region as a direct consequence of climate change, this is yet another demonstration, after Covid-19, of the need for a more predictable and accessible supply of vaccines for the developing world.The Forum marked the beginning of a new era for immunisation and equity as Gavi sets out its plan to protect more children against more diseases than ever before. Now in its 25th year, Gavi has already vaccinated more than a billion children in lower-income countries – one-eighth of humanity.Along the way, it has contributed to the prevention of millions of deaths, unlocked hundreds of billions of dollars in economic benefits, and helped prevent and respond to outbreaks of new and re-emerging diseases.In the future, we expect that vaccines will play an even larger role in keeping us all safe (a vaccine against colon cancer is now being tested in the United Kingdom) and helping countries to develop. Vaccines play an important role in reducing the risk of antibiotic resistance, and when it comes to helping countries adapt to climate change, they provide protection against outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and yellow fever, all of which can be triggered by floods, droughts, and rising temperatures.Vaccine sovereignty means helping countries take ownership of their own national strategies, as well as giving them the means to access the vaccines they need, especially in times of crisis and global supply-chain disruptions, such as the one we experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. A unique strength of Gavi’s model is that it is sustainable by design, pooling demand to secure affordable prices while asking countries to contribute more toward covering the cost as their national incomes rise.To date, 19 countries’ economies have grown to the point that they have transitioned out of Gavi support and now pay the full costs of their national vaccine programmes. Over the next five years, Gavi-supported countries will make their largest-ever investment in immunisation, paying over 40% of the costs of their routine vaccines.Vaccine sovereignty also means having access to a secure vaccine supply. The pandemic highlighted the inherent injustice and inefficiency of concentrating vaccine production in a few countries, which was reflected in long delays in access for countries and continents that were locked out of the manufacturing ecosystem.The African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator (AVMA), a $1bn financing mechanism that will also be launched in Paris, is designed to rebalance that ecosystem by catalysing the emergence of robust vaccine manufacturing capacity in Africa, which currently produces only 2% of the vaccines it uses. AVMA will emphasise funding for vaccines that are currently in short supply, such as vaccines against cholera and Ebola. This is consistent with the AU’s Agenda 2063, which states that a healthy, prosperous population in Africa can be achieved through research, development, and innovation. And it is good for the world, because no one is safe until everyone is safe.In a world that often seems divided, the Protecting Our Future Forum is a chance to celebrate the unparalleled global impact of immunisation and, more broadly, the untapped potential of global solidarity and partnership. We will be there alongside heads of state from around the world to show our unwavering support for Gavi’s ambitious programme and its efforts to raise the funds it needs to deliver a healthier, more prosperous future by making this the most protected generation in history. — Project SyndicateEmmanuel Macron is President of France.José Manuel Barroso, a former president of the European Commission and prime minister of Portugal, is Chair of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.Mohamed Cheikh El Ghazouani is President of Mauritania and Chairperson of the African Union.

Emperor Naruhito and his wife began a week long trip to Britain yesterday, during which they will visit Oxford University where they both studied and attend a banquet with King Charles, but no formal meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is scheduled.Naruhito and his wife, Empress Masako, had been due to make the visit in 2020 when Queen Elizabeth was still alive but it was postponed because of the Covid pandemic.Their first overseas trip together after Naruhito’s enthronement was to Elizabeth’s funeral in 2022. Ahead of this state visit the 64-year-old emperor spoke of the kindness the British royals showed him when he arrived in Britain to study in the early 1980s.He recalled how the late queen had invited him to Buckingham Palace for tea, which she made herself. “I have fond memories of the heartwarming hospitality I received from her majesty the queen and the royal family, making me feel like I was part of their family,” he told a news conference in Tokyo. Naruhito was greeted by officials on his arrival at London’s Stansted airport on Saturday afternoon. The emperor’s trip is the third state visit of Charles’ reign, and the first since it was revealed earlier this year that the British monarch had been diagnosed with cancer.Ahead of the visit, Naruhito said he was grateful the king would host them despite his illness, and he also sent good wishes to Charles’ daughter-in-law Kate, wife of heir Prince William, who is having preventative chemotherapy treatment for cancer.“I understand that they are both going through a hard time, but I pray that their treatment will go smoothly and that they will have a speedy recovery,” he said.The official reason for the trip is to celebrate the long ties between the two royal families, and to demonstrate the deep relationship between the two countries. The Japanese royals are also using it as a chance to return to Oxford where they both studied at separate times, while Naruhito will visit the River Thames flood barrier which he researched while at university.The visit clashes with campaigning for the British election on July 4, and a Japanese foreign ministry official said there were no plans for a meeting with the prime minister.The official state elements of the trip begin on Tuesday when Prince William will formally greet the emperor, before a grand carriage procession along The Mall to Buckingham Palace where there will be a state banquet.During the trip Naruhito will also privately visit St George’s Chapel at Windsor Castle to lay a wreath at the tomb of Queen Elizabeth.

Recent years have witnessed an increase in global uncertainties, driven by economic, political and technological shifts, adding complexity to the environment in which countries operate and their energy transition trajectory.Geopolitical tensions pose risks to energy security and hinder international co-operation, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East risk exacerbating volatility in oil markets, potentially resulting in an oil price spike.Despite a moderation in energy prices, regional disparities persist, constraining economic growth, imposing financial burdens on households and businesses, and hindering efforts to enhance electricity access.This situation, WEF noted, could have been much worse if not for the mild weather conditions globally.However, there have been instances of accelerated change, notably in Europe, where there has been a rapid reduction in dependence on Russian natural gas and significant improvements in energy efficiency.Global investments in efficiency increased by 45% since 2020, with countries representing three-quarters of global energy demand strengthening energy efficiency policies or implementing new ones in the past year.The disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war led to a global energy crisis and a surge in inflation and interest rates during 2022 and 2023.This created a cost-of-living crisis in many countries, raising concerns across industries and economies, especially those in developing countries with dollar-denominated debt and imports. Headline inflation has since slowed down due to tighter monetary policy in G7 nations, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a rate of 5.8% for 2024 (down from 6.9% and 8.7% in 2023 and 2022, respectively).However, persistently high interest rates and capital costs remain significant obstacles in the energy transition, particularly for emerging and developing economies. This directly impacts the ability of firms and countries to finance the upfront investments to meet energy demand and decarbonise the energy system.Despite lower operational costs, capital-intensive clean energy solutions remain disproportionately affected due to high upfront capital investment requirements.In 2023, clean energy sources faced challenges, including uncertainties in subsidies and supply chains, coupled with high interest rates and significant cost increases.Trade patterns in the energy sector have shifted significantly as governments focus on enhancing supply chain resilience and strengthening energy security.This shift has coincided with accelerated momentum towards cleaner energy sources, including the rapid expansion of renewable power capacity and increased adoption of technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps, driven partly by supportive government policies.Despite these positive trends, growing trade protectionism and costs create headwinds, especially for developing nations.The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) data indicates a $1tn contraction in global trade in 2023.Geopolitical tensions have continued to impact bilateral trade flows, evidenced by shifts such as the European Union (EU) reducing its trade dependence on Russia and decreasing trade interdependence between China and the US.However, certain industries, such as motor vehicles, saw growth in trade value, driven by growing demand for EVs. This, coupled with an improved global economic outlook, could bolster trade resilience in the coming year.Uncertainties remain regarding geopolitical tensions and potential future disruptions to global supply chains, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.

HE Ambassador of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to Qatar Ferdinand Lahnstein said that the visit of HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani to the Netherlands is a significant milestone in the bilateral relations between the two countries. It highlights the highest level of engagement, reflecting the strong and growing ties between Qatar and the Netherlands. He added that the visit underscores the two countries' shared commitment to strengthening the strategic partnership, enhancing political and economic collaboration, and promoting regional and global stability.In his remarks to Qatar News Agency (QNA), His Excellency added that the Netherlands and Qatar have developed strong and diverse relations since they began diplomatic ties in 1972. The Dutch embassy opened in Doha in 2005, initially focusing on trade and investment. However, with fast-changing global dynamics, especially in the Gulf, the relationship evolved into a strategic partnership. This partnership emphasizes safety, security, and regional stability.His Excellency pointed out that the two countries also have distinguished economic and trade relations. He said that Dutch exports to Qatar have grown significantly after the COVID-19 pandemic, rising from 560 million Euros in 2020 to 825 Euros million in 2022. These exports mainly include fruit and vegetables, office equipment, data processing and telecom equipment, and dairy products.His Excellency added that the Netherlands imports mostly mineral fuels, metals, chemical products, and telecom equipment from Qatar. These imports have surged from 223 million Euros in 2020 to 1.4 billion Euros in 2022, largely due to increased LNG deliveries to the Netherlands since the war in Ukraine began.His Excellency also pointed out that the Netherlands stands out as a digital economy leader, boasting substantial infrastructure such as major internet nodes and data centers. The WEB Summit in Qatar and Qatar Economic Forum left the Netherlands impressed, highlighting the immense potential for deepening Dutch-Qatari ties in the digital sector. The Netherlands envisions enhanced collaboration in trade, investment, innovation, and R&D, with a particular focus on cybersecurity and protecting digital infrastructure.HE the Ambassador of the Netherlands also noted that Dutch companies have significantly contributed to Qatar's infrastructure, leaving a footprint in numerous sectors.On the other hand, His Excellency indicated that the Qatari investments in the Netherlands total around 7.4 billion Euros, involving state companies, private firms, and individuals. Notable investments include Q Terminals Group's majority stake in the Kramer Group and their sponsorship of Feyenoord Football Club. Other Qatari-owned assets include the Amstel Hotel, InsingerGilissen bank, Nedair Freight, and a horse-trading company.His Excellency said that foreign investors in the Netherlands receive incentives and support at national and regional levels through the Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA). NFIA aids companies worldwide in establishing or expanding operations in the Netherlands. Their free and independent services connect investors with a network of partners and institutions. NFIA offers tailored information on Dutch legislation, tax regulations, and more, along with practical solutions for establishment. They provide personalized support across sectors like agrifood, IT, and energy. The Invest in Holland Network aids in decision-making and offers ongoing assistance to established foreign companies, fostering growth and sustainability in the Netherlands.On the other hand, HE the Ambassador of the Netherlands said that the Netherlands values Qatar's role as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its humanitarian efforts in Gaza. He added that the leaders of the two countries are in regular contact as the Dutch Prime Minister visited Qatar last November. In 2024, there were several visits from Dutch ministers, including the defense minister, as well as high level visits."We hope Qatar will continue its vital role in mediating, especially as talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages are crucial. It's essential for the international community to understand the severe consequences of undermining this process, particularly for the Palestinian people. With over 37,000 casualties, mostly women and children, it emphasizes the urgent need to adhere to International Humanitarian Law in protecting civilians and livelihoods," His Excellency said."The Dutch government stands behind a Two-State solution based on the 1967 borders, with a Palestinian State encompassing Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories are deemed illegal and obstructive to a sustainable solution," His Excellency added.His Excellency stressed that both the Netherlands and Qatar are dedicated to providing humanitarian aid to Gaza and other global crises, acknowledging the necessity for closer collaboration. Recently, the Dutch Special Envoy on Humanitarian Affairs in Gaza held extensive discussions with Qatari counterparts regarding air-dropping provisions in Gaza. However, more action is required. Both governments are exploring additional ways to assist more people in need with essential goods.HE the Ambassador of the Netherlands pointed out that Qatar has succeeded in playing a humanitarian political role in the region and the world due to several key factors. First, Qatar has a strategic location and a deep understanding of regional dynamics, allowing it to act as an effective mediator in conflicts. Second, Qatar's leadership is committed to diplomacy and dialogue, consistently advocating for peaceful solutions and cooperation. Third, Qatar invests significantly in humanitarian aid and development, supporting communities in need and promoting stability. Finally, Qatar's balanced foreign policy and strong international partnerships enhance its credibility and influence on the global stage. These elements together enable Qatar to make a positive humanitarian impact both regionally and globally.Regarding the Qatari-Dutch consensus on current global issues, His Excellency asserted that both the Netherlands and Qatar find it important that the international legal order is maintained to ensure a level playing field for the nations. International legal institutions like the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, both based in The Hague, are crucial in enforcing conventions and treaties that have been ratified by the United Nations and most national states.Regarding the amount of aid provided by the Netherlands to Palestine since the beginning of the war on Gaza, HE the Ambassador of the Netherlands said that the Netherlands has supported the Palestinian people with 51 million Euros, mainly through the UN Flash Appeal and partially as a direct contribution to UNRWA

Now that voters across the European Union’s 27 member states have elected the 720 members of the next European Parliament, the focus shifts to manning the institutions that will guide the bloc’s work and set its strategic priorities over the next five years. This process will take some time. But by the end of the year – following all the predictable parliamentary haggling and turmoil – it should be complete.All told, the shift in the political balance within the European Parliament was not as dramatic as many commentators expected. The share of seats held by traditional centre-right, centre-left, and liberal parties fell only from 59% to 56%. Most of the drama was confined to a few countries, not least France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally trounced President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. Though that outcome will not immediately affect the process of staffing EU institutions, a political sea change in one of the bloc’s key members obviously could have a greater impact over time.Looking back on the past five years, it is fair to say that the EU has outperformed expectations. It might not have transformed itself into the geopolitical power that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen envisioned in so many speeches, but it has proven to be an effective crisis manager through one “black swan” crisis after another (from the Covid-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).The road ahead may be even more challenging. A big question mark hovers over France as it holds a snap parliamentary election this month and a presidential election in 2027. Germany’s three-party coalition government will probably stumble on, despite its members’ poor showing in the European election. And it remains to be seen what kind of internal resistance the EU will face from the governments in Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands, and perhaps Austria (following its general election this fall).Even without potential spoilers, the EU’s political agenda would be daunting. The EU got off to a good start on the green transition over the past decade, establishing itself as a global leader on climate issues; but domestic political pressures in many member states are now forcing policymakers to proceed more slowly. Meanwhile, its digital transition has been less impressive – a shortcoming that stands out even more as the age of artificial intelligence transforms the global economy.European leaders are only gradually waking up to the fact that the EU has a competitiveness problem. In a world where the US is the innovation superpower and China is the production superpower, being a regulatory superpower is not enough.How Europe tackles this issue will fundamentally shape its future. Many are calling for new tariffs, subsidies, and expensive industrial policies, often under the pretext of economic and national security. But such proposals sidestep the real issues. Until Europe completes its single market and establishes a true capital union, European entrepreneurs will struggle to commercialise new innovations, and global investors will continue to favour the US and other markets.These issues have grown more urgent with the return of war to the continent. Preserving peace and stability is the reason the EU was created in the first place. Born in the ashes of World War II, it has been extraordinarily successful so far. But Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine poses a direct challenge to the European project. If it is not met head-on, the entire European order could unravel in the coming years.Preventing that outcome will require the EU to transform itself into a security union, in partnership with Nato, and to move ahead with enlargement to include Ukraine. The choice here is quite simple: Either we extend our stability eastward, or Russia will continue to push its project of destabilisation westward.The discussions on EU leadership, personnel, and priorities over the coming weeks and months will be about preparing the bloc to meet these challenges. The EU has shown itself to be an effective crisis manager, but now it must become a major strategic player in an increasingly difficult global environment. As if the Russian threat wasn’t bad enough already, it will become even more acute if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November. A US administration that openly abandons allies and dismantles or de-fangs key pillars of the international order – including the World Trade Organisation, the World Health Organisation, global climate agreements, and Nato – will pose an altogether different and greater challenge.Faced with the task of manoeuvring between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, a second Trump administration, and its own populists, the EU’s situation is not going to get any easier. But Europe is not helpless. The more EU member states unify around shared institutions and common goals, the more secure they will be. – Project SyndicateCarl Bildt is a former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden.

A problem as unprecedentedly large and destructive as climate change demands bold new thinking and urgent action. Yet since the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical tensions have dominated the global agenda, hindering collective efforts to address this existential challenge.Anticipating what lay in store for their countries, African finance ministers came together during the pandemic to call for a $100bn stimulus package to weather the shock. Four years later, however, net financial flows to developing countries have turned negative – meaning more money is being paid out to lenders in mostly rich countries than is coming in – owing to spiralling debt-service costs, higher interest rates, and the lack of additional external financing options. It is now crucial that existing pledges – such as the €150bn ($160bn) EU-Africa Global Gateway Investment Package – be implemented fully to support African countries.US President Joe Biden and Kenyan President William Ruto acknowledged these challenges in their Nairobi-Washington Vision statement last month, when they committed to ensuring that “high ambition countries don’t have to choose between servicing their debts and making necessary investments in their futures.” The Biden administration recognises that positive net financial flows are critical to supporting countries in responding to the climate crisis and building low-carbon energy systems.As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently reminded us, there is an 80% chance that the global average temperature will temporarily rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. The battle to keep global warming below the threshold established by the Paris climate agreement will be won or lost in the 2020s. The necessary investment and innovation needs to be happening now.Countries like Nigeria and Sierra Leone are developing green growth plans and launching investment packages focused on renewables and climate-resilient infrastructure; and Barbados has just introduced its own 2035 investment plan to achieve prosperity and resilience. But these efforts all require financing.The Bridgetown Initiative’s proposals for reforming the global financial architecture can drive the kinds of changes we need. The G20 has already responded by seeking a wealth tax that could unlock around $250bn in new finance, and we could mobilise up to a trillion dollars more in low-cost lending by leveraging multilateral development banks’ (MDBs) balance sheets. Moreover, with climate clauses added to debt contracts, developing countries can preserve the fiscal space they need to respond to major climate shocks.But we must do more. In May, the International Monetary Fund’s board approved the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs, the IMF’s unit of account) as hybrid capital, which will allow MDBs to expand their balance sheets. That is a good start, but G20 countries must commit the SDRs needed to capitalise on this financial innovation.We also must ensure that concessional finance (loans with accommodative terms) continues to flow to the most vulnerable and climate-afflicted countries. One-third of the countries eligible for support from the World Bank’s International Development Association are now poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic.IDA countries have significant economic potential. They account for about 20% of global production of tin, copper, and gold; most are well-positioned to take advantage of solar energy (owing to abundant sunshine); and many possess deposits of minerals essential for the energy transition. But they are energy-poor and will need technical and financial support to provide electricity to 300mn people who lack it, as envisioned by a new programme launched by the World Bank and the African Development Bank. To achieve an ambitious replenishment of the IDA fund later this year and unlock $120bn in grants and loans to make this possible, World Bank shareholders must step up with new resources.Middle-income countries – especially the Vulnerable 20 (which now includes 68 countries) – also urgently need more access to grants and long-term capital. Small island developing states should not be penalised for good performance by being forced to “graduate” from the IDA. That will put them at the mercy of capital markets when they still need quick, affordable finance to build resilience and maintain insurance against persistent climate shocks. The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust has demonstrated the necessary sensitivity toward vulnerable low- and middle-income countries’ need for long-term, affordable finance. But more of these kinds of facilities – and related mechanisms, like guarantees – are needed to accelerate progress over the coming decade.We must continue to reduce the cost of capital for all countries seeking to invest in the energy transition. Our own countries face a premium when borrowing on capital markets, partly because credit rating agencies do not fully account for the conditions we face. The situation is not only unjust but also unwise. A good first step toward reducing borrowing costs and making investments commercially viable would be to reform IMF surcharges, which cost indebted borrower countries $1.9bn in 2023 alone.We also must continue to provide liquidity for developing countries through a new issuance of SDRs. This is a no-brainer, because it would stabilise currencies and help manage debt burdens without contributing to inflation. And finally, we must get carbon markets working to deter pollution and channel resources toward cleaner energy. Our collective stake in the planet’s future requires us to act both now and at scale. – Project SyndicateMia Amor Mottley is Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Barbados. Wale Edun is Finance Minister of Nigeria and Chair of the African Governors Forum at the World Bank.

When former French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was finance minister in the 1960s, he famously described America’s status as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency as an “exorbitant privilege”. But his label applies equally well to his own country’s position in the European monetary union. Despite persistently widening budget deficits, France has long been able to borrow almost as cheaply as fiscally prudent Germany. The bond market even shrugged off S&P’s downgrade of French sovereign debt at the end of last month, implying that France was somehow immune from the usual credit discipline. Then politics intervened.Following the surge of support for the French far-right in this month’s European Parliament election, President Emmanuel Macron’s abrupt decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call a snap election has met with a decidedly negative market reaction. But investors may now be underestimating the resilience of the French exorbitant privilege.The seeds of this privilege were sown in the 1992 Treaty of Maastricht, which created a monetary union without a fiscal union. That scheme required a “no-bailout” rule, lest profligate countries free ride on more fiscally responsible members. But the 2010-12 euro crisis exposed the fatal flaw in this design: if the ban on bailouts meant that the European Central Bank (ECB) could not serve as lender of last resort, it would threaten the monetary union and, by extension, the entire European project.The resulting compromise hinged on a fiscal rule. The ECB stood ready to buy unlimited quantities of eurozone member-state bonds, provided that their budget plans were consistent with fiscal rules set and enforced by the European Commission. Meanwhile, the fiscal police in Brussels remained very lenient toward French governments. The crises in smaller peripheral countries, and then in Italy, had been alarming enough. The last thing they wanted was a similar bust-up with France, the cornerstone of the entire European construct. So, they devised a fudge.As a penalty for its routine non-compliance with fiscal rules, France would be placed on a naughty list. In accordance with the EU’s “excessive deficit procedure,” the French government would promise to tighten up, and the Commission would declare itself satisfied. The ECB then had political cover to buy French sovereign bonds (if necessary), and this resulted in markets valuing French government debt almost as highly as German Bunds, despite the absence of any real improvement in the French fiscal position.There was no need for this charade when the eurozone fiscal rules were suspended in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. But the rules (with some modifications) have now been revived, and the French budget deficit, at 5.1% of GDP, is further than ever from the 3% threshold. Thus, even before the latest political shock, the dance between Paris and Brussels was expected to be more sensitive than usual. France was going to have to commit to reduce the deficit by perhaps half a percentage point of GDP, and even that moderate adjustment might have triggered a vote of no-confidence in Macron’s government in the lower house of parliament, where his party lost its majority in the 2022 election.Two years later, the snap election could well replace Macron’s limping centrist government with one led by parties whose campaigns have abandoned any pretense of fiscal discipline. The European Parliament election and the latest polling both show that the main challenge is coming from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and allied right-wing parties, and financial markets are already reacting the same way they did when Le Pen first made a credible run for power in 2017.Back then, Le Pen was promising to abandon the euro and restore the French franc, which would have caused a systemic financial shock. Though she later dropped the idea of leaving the eurozone, she still rattled markets when she ran again for the presidency in 2022. It is no surprise that markets are spooked again.If National Rally and its allies do win this election, though, it will not be in Le Pen’s interest to trash the country’s exorbitant privilege within the eurozone. In fact, she will have every incentive to exploit it, to smooth her path to the presidency in 2027. That is why her prime minister-designate, the charismatic 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has already back-pedalled on the party’s most fiscally costly campaign promise: reversing the increase in the retirement age (from 62 to 64) that Macron forced through last year in the teeth of public protest.Thus, in the event of a right-wing government (which would rule in “cohabitation” with Macron), I would expect to see the same old fiscal charade vis-à-vis Brussels, albeit with more rhetorical brinkmanship that would further unsettle markets. And the same would go for a left-wing government elected on an aggressive tax-and-spend platform, since the revenues from higher taxes would likely satisfy the European fiscal police.The outcome that would most fully justify the market’s fears is a stalemate. If the right- and left-wing alliances each win around 200 seats while Macron’s centrist bloc is reduced from 250 seats to 150 at most, it would be extremely difficult to form any kind of government, let alone a stable one. Although any future French government is likely to end up resuming the fiscal dance, it takes two to tango. A persistent political deadlock in Paris would leave Brussels with no government to engage, and the longer the political limbo lasted, the greater the financial instability and damage to the European economy would be. – Project SyndicateBrigitte Granville, Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at Queen Mary University of London, is the author of Remembering Inflation (Princeton University Press, 2013) and What Ails France? (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2021).

The year was 1999. Steve Jobs had recently returned to lead Apple. Intel was the dominant force in semiconductors. And a little-known chipmaker named Nvidia made its debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange.It took less than three years for Nvidia Corp to ascend into the S&P 500 — replacing the disgraced oil-trading conglomerate Enron, no less.But even then, few people would have bet that the company would go on to become the best performing stock of the last quarter-century, posting a total return of 591,078% since its initial public offering, including reinvested dividends. It’s a difficult number to comprehend and a testament, in part, to the financial mania brewing around artificial intelligence and how investors have come to see Nvidia — which makes the cutting-edge chips powering the technology — as the single-biggest winner of the boom.On Tuesday, that run culminated in Nvidia unseating Microsoft Corp as the world’s most valuable company with a market capitalisation of $3.34tn. More than $2tn of that value has been added this year.The company’s rise was by no means assured — and neither is its staying power at the top of the S&P 500. Long-time investors in Nvidia have had to stomach three annual collapses of 50% or more in the stock. Sustaining the current rally will require customers to keep spending billions of dollars a quarter on AI equipment, whose returns on investment are so far relatively small.What ultimately paved the way for Nvidia to climb to the top, though, was the company’s big bet on graphics chips and the vision of co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang that the industry would shift to what he calls “accelerated computing,” something his chips are inherently better at than the competition.“You have to give the management team, I think, an enormous amount of credit,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management. “They have caught each wave of innovation in hardware perfectly well.” Early Years Nvidia got off to a hot start.Between its debut and the time it entered the S&P 500, the stock gained more than 1,600%, giving it a market value of about $8bn. That rise came as many other technology stocks were cratering in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, which peaked in March 2000.The company’s key to early success: getting its technology in video-game consoles like Microsoft’s Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation. Nvidia’s GeForce graphics processing units, or GPUs, became objects of desire among gamers because they consistently offered the most realistic experience.“Jensen was always a great communicator, told a good story, and clearly GPUs were becoming more important,” said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management, who was a buyer in the IPO. “Each successive generation of hardware gave a lot better performance, a lot more realistic picture and then PC gaming really came into being.”The next six years weren’t kind to Nvidia. The stock plunged in 2008 as the financial crisis weakened demand and long-struggling rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc started turning things around.Meanwhile, an agreement between Nvidia and Intel that allowed the companies to use each other’s capabilities went sour, forcing Nvidia out of one of its biggest markets. The two settled in 2011, with Intel agreeing to pay Nvidia $1.5bn.The following year, Nvidia unveiled graphics chips for servers inside data centres. They could help sophisticated computing work such as oil and gas exploration and weather prediction, giving Nvidia a foothold in what would become a lucrative market. However, those chips did not immediately fly off the shelf. It would take nearly nine years for Nvidia shares to surpass their 2007 high.Nvidia shares took off again in 2015. During that period, the company’s chips were becoming the foundation of emerging technologies, from advanced graphics interfaces to autonomous vehicles to a new wave of AI products.That’s when Shana Sissel, chief executive officer at Banrion Capital Management, first really took note of the company. She described a 2017 conference where Nvidia was more like a pageant winner than an investment idea.“Every single speaker talked about Nvidia being the most important company,” Sissel said. “At that point, it was really on my radar screen.” Even after demand from cryptocurrency miners dried up, data-centre sales continued to grow. The Covid-19 pandemic boosted that business, as companies needed to purchase additional computing power to support remote work. Nvidia’s data-centre revenue rose by a multiple of eight from fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2021.Nvidia’s shares slumped in 2022 along with the rest of the technology sector, which was reeling from soaring interest rates and falling demand after the Covid-era boom.OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT in late-2022 made an instant splash but it took time for investors to realise how Nvidia might benefit. Eventually, interest in ChatGPT and other generative AI products exploded, triggering a frantic surge in orders for Nvidia’s chips.When the company reported first-quarter 2023 earnings, the scale of the jump in its business shocked nearly everyone on Wall Street. Nvidia gave a forecast for quarterly sales that was more than 50% above the average projection.Nvidia’s data-centre sales eclipsed its gaming revenue for the first time in fiscal 2023. In Nvidia’s current fiscal year, analysts expect those sales to top $100bn.“They have a very defensible place in the industry,” said Williams, the strategist at Wayve Capital Management. “They’re not gonna be 95% of market share forever, obviously, but it would be almost impossible for anybody to replace them.”