Search - covid 19

About two years ago, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s economy hit a roadblock. As all sectors underwent deleveraging, economic growth slowed, household savings rates increased, and businesses scaled back their investments and accumulated savings. Many now wonder whether consumers and companies are stuck in a self-reinforcing cycle of declining spending and falling prices, which would have the pernicious effect of increasing the real value of debt.For a long time, the government did not move forcefully to counter these trends. On the contrary, as falling property prices and stalling land sales, together with slower growth, squeezed local governments’ budgets, the central government maintained a prudent fiscal stance. Now, China is teetering on the edge of a deflationary trap: the consumer price index has been hovering near zero for 16 months, and the producer price index has been in negative territory for 24 months.Japan remained ensnared in such a trap for three decades. Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates stagnated around zero, resulting in a long-term relative decline in GDP per capita, from a peak of 150% of the level in the US in 1995 to just 41% of the US level in 2023. With China potentially on a similar trajectory – in 2021-23, its GDP fell from 76% of the US level to 67%, and today, its GDP per capita is only 15% of the US level – how to avoid Japan’s fate has become an urgent question.Answering it requires, first, changing the way we think about money. The conventional macroeconomic wisdom is that central banks and governments manage price and liquidity pressures through interest rates and fiscal policy. But if we recognise that money is, ultimately, a country’s equity capital, money issuance can – and should – be thought of in similar terms to equity issuance. And as equity issuers, central banks can play an important role in stabilising financial markets, recapitalising banks, and avoiding a liquidity trap.Just as a company might issue equity to recapitalise or fund productive capital expenditures, a central bank can issue money to retire debt and boost financing of investment, thereby reducing leverage across the economy and countering deflationary forces. (Conversely, when an economy is overheating, and inflation is rising, policymakers can shrink the monetary base, much as corporations repurchase stock to increase share value.)Moreover, if banks are lending less because they have accumulated too many non-performing loans (NPLs), the central bank can recapitalise them through debt-equity swaps, with banks exchanging their liabilities (debt) for money (equity) from the central bank. At the same time, central banks can support an asset-relief programme involving the removal of NPLs from banks’ balance sheets.This way of thinking about money should inform China’s effort to fight deflation. Fortunately, the government’s newly announced stimulus package suggests that this may well be happening. Some of its features are conventional. For example, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has lowered its key policy rate – the seven-day reverse repo rate – 20 basis points, from 1.7% to 1.5%. This will drive the medium-term lending-facility rate down by about 30 basis points. The loan-market quotation rate and the deposit rate will probably also be lowered, most likely by 20-25 basis points.Moreover, the PBoC is encouraging commercial banks to lower their mortgage interest rates to align more closely with the rate for newly issued loans – an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. The stimulus also includes a 0.5-percentage-point reduction in financial institutions’ mandatory reserve ratio, which frees up about CN¥1 trillion ($140bn) in long-term liquidity.But China’s stimulus programme also includes two new PBoC tools, designed to support the capital market. The first is a swap facility – initially valued at CN¥500bn, though it will probably be expanded – to make it easier for securities firms, fund companies, and insurers to finance stock purchases.The second is the provision of up to CN¥300bn (to start) in cheap loans to commercial banks, to be used to help other entities increase their share purchases and buybacks. With these policies, the PBoC is effectively issuing equity to stabilise prices and asset values, thereby reducing economy-wide leverage.Capital markets responded positively to the stimulus announcement, with China’s A-share market index rising by more than 20% in less than a week. But more must be done to restore long-term investor confidence. While the list of necessary policies is long, three priorities stand out.First, China’s fiscal authorities should increase spending, in order to support economic growth, which is vital to address property-sector and local-government debts. Their current stance, which has had the central government’s budget deficit running only slightly above 3% of GDP for the last four years, is too prudent.Second, the government should do more to support the private sector, which has contributed 60% of GDP, 70% of innovations, and 80% of employment to the Chinese economy roughly over the past five years. Specifically, it should fast-track its draft private-economy promotion law, aimed at fostering private-sector development, and actively promote investment with financial support, tax incentives, and expanded market access.Finally, policymakers should support job creation for recent college graduates, migrant workers, and other groups exposed to rising unemployment. By using equity issuance productively to mobilise an idle workforce with high human capital, China could increase both economic activity and consumption.With its latest stimulus plan, China’s government is on the right track. But to escape deflation, it must go further. – Project Syndicatel Patrick Bolton, professor of finance at Imperial College London, is senior adviser to the Lazard Climate Center and a co-author (with Haizhou Huang) of Money Capital: New Monetary Principles for a More Prosperous Society (Princeton University Press, 2024).l Haizhou Huang, special-term professor of finance at the Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, is an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China and a co-author (with Patrick Bolton) of Money Capital: New Monetary Principles for a More Prosperous Society (Princeton University Press, 2024).

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and flourishing in Qatar. This does not guarantee the growth of a non-oil and gas export-earning sector and economic diversification. Recent announcements confirm the government’s support for the private sector: Are there further reforms that could help?One of the heartening findings of a recent report into startups and other small businesses in Qatar has been a high level of entrepreneurialism among the population, which has continued to rise after the one-off opportunities of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The report was produced by the Global Entrepreneurial Monitor (GEM), in collaboration with Qatar Development Bank.Total Early-stage Activity in setting up businesses, known as the TEA rate, is 15.4% among men and 13.1% in women. While the TEA rate fell from 17.2% to 10.7% between 2020 and 2022, probably attributable to the Covid-19 outbreak, it rose to 14.3%, post-World Cup, in 2023. The proportion of those running an established business also nudged upwards, from 3.9% to 4.4% in 2022-23.Overall, setting up your own business is viewed positively, as an aspirational career choice. On this measure, Qatar ranks second against a group of Middle East and North African countries.Many businesses are set up with informal loans, from friends and family. As with all start-ups, a proportion doesn’t succeed. It is likely that the report understates the level of failure – not through any fault of the authors, but because some activity is “off-grid”, and data is limited. In Qatar, a high proportion of entrepreneurs have set up a business while continuing to work full-time in a relatively well-paid, secure salaried post in the public sector. Their business loans are guaranteed against their salary, not only the business itself. If the business fails, the individual will be repaying the debt out of salary for many years.It is part of Qatar’s economic strategy to encourage entrepreneurialism and economic diversification, and this report produces encouraging findings. There is much scope for further policy reform. An economy will not be substantially diversified if it consists primarily of a small number of very large export-earning oil and gas firms alongside thousands of micro businesses in the services sector. There needs to be nurturing of businesses with potential to scale and grow internationally, for example in technology, information services and manufacturing.There is not a well-developed bankruptcy law in Qatar as one might find in the US or western Europe, and this reform would help, alongside sensible policy measures to prevent high borrowings from inexperienced start-up founders with little chance of success.The recent announcement to write off loans made to private sector companies under the National Response Guarantee Program (NRGP) during Covid-19 outbreak will have an impact. It is an understandable move, releasing resources for affected companies and drawing a line under the exceptional measures brought about by the pandemic. The move may, however, be perceived as unfair by those businesses that did repay the loans, or those who took out commercial loans. Thus, Qatar Development Bank also announced an initiative to arrange zero-interest short-term loans to companies that had settled their loans under the NRGP.To encourage private sector development, rather than a system of loans made against employees’ earnings from their day job, or soft loans that may ultimately be written off, it might be better for Qatar Development Bank or a related Fund to invest more fully in entrepreneurial endeavours by becoming an equity investor in enterprises with potential to scale, offering governance and training support to the business founders, and an experienced board director appointed by the Fund. If the directors of the company are full-time, and fully invested, it is likely that the firm has a better chance of success. Or, fresh loans could be made contingent on the owners undergoing training on governance and finance.Zero interest-rate loans will benefit some companies, but it would not be healthy to be inadvertently facilitating companies becoming dependent on cheap financing, rather than seeking to scale through organic growth, efficiency and profitable business model. Another option for companies that are struggling financially, but which have potential to scale, is partial debt forgiveness, rather than writing off the whole loan.There also needs to be incentives for expatriate individuals to set up a company and stay in Qatar.Overall, though, the report strikes a positive note about commercial ambition acumen in Qatar, and the government’s initiatives underline its commitment to continuing private sector development.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

HE the Qatari Military Attache to Italy Major General (Navy) Hilal Ali Al Mohannadi said that the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani represents the culmination of a long-standing relationship and cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the military field.In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA), HE Al Mohannadi said that His Highness the Amir's visit to Italy also serves as an opportunity to support and enhance strategic cooperation between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic in the military sector, as they share a historic collaboration in this area that began in the 1980s and has been significantly strengthened through the agreement signed between the ministries of defense in 2016.He described the military relations between Qatar and Italy as part of a broader strategic partnership that both countries are working to enhance in the fields of security and defense.HE Al Mohannadi noted that the first military cooperation between the two countries began in the early 1980s, with the Qatari naval forces acquiring ships equipped with guns and ammunition manufactured in Italy, which subsequently led to significant developments in military collaboration between the two sides.He added that the agreement signed between the ministries of defense of Qatar and Italy has opened the door wide for close and significant cooperation between the two countries in areas such as the acquisition of combat aircraft, helicopters, naval vessels, and advanced equipment like radar systems, in addition to training and joint exercises, particularly in training pilots and military personnel in the naval forces, as well as academic military studies.He pointed out that the military cooperation agreement between the two countries has borne fruit, with the Qatari armed forces receiving all seven naval vessels manufactured in Italy, with only one remaining to be delivered. Additionally, 80 percent of the order for helicopters from Italy, amounting to 28 helicopters, has been fulfilled.Regarding training, he explained that since 2017, 660 personnel from the naval forces have trained in Italy, while 260 individuals have trained in helicopter operations, and 32 pilots have participated in advanced aircraft training programs. Furthermore, 40 personnel have trained in air defense (radar systems), and 41 individuals have taken part in special forces training, along with the training of liaison officers from the ground forces and the Internal Security Force (Lekhwiya).He noted that since 2017, 154 courses have been organized in Italy, benefiting 952 individuals, which brings the total number of those who benefited from these courses in Italy to 1,333. Additionally, since 2021, eight joint exercises have been conducted, involving 316 individuals, along with over 400 mutual visits by military delegations between the two countries since 2017.HE Al Mohannadi noted that the Military Attache office in Italy was established in 2017, following the signing of an agreement for the construction of naval vessels for Qatar with the Italian government in June 2016, in partnership with the Italian company Fincantieri, pointing out that the decision to appoint a Military Attache in Italy was to oversee two roles: defense attache and monitoring projects signed with the Italian government in the military field.He explained that Italy is an important strategic partner in the military sector, as its military industry has seen significant development and possesses over 150 years of extensive experience in manufacturing military equipment, particularly naval equipment, and countries around the world benefit from these advanced Italian military industries.His Excellency highlighted that there are numerous agreements linking Italy and Qatar in the military field, including agreements with the Qatar Armed Forces, the Amiri Guard, the Ministry of Interior, and the Internal Security Force (Lekhwiya), as well as cooperation in academic military studies, with 240 individuals currently studying in fields related to naval and aviation.He affirmed that military cooperation with Italy will continue and expand further, especially as the signed agreement on military projects spans thirty years and is valued at over EUR 9 billion.The Qatari Military Attache emphasised that the military collaboration between the two countries is strategic, with both sides continuously seeking to explore new opportunities and partnerships that will benefit both nations.He noted that the distinguished bilateral relations between the two countries have significantly facilitated military cooperation, pointing out that Italy is a friendly and important country in the region, and interactions between the two sides are characterized by credibility and respect.HE Al Mohannadi concluded his interview with QNA by noting that Italy has supported Qatar and stood by it in various issues and challenges, and in turn, Qatar supported Italy, particularly during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, by providing two field hospitals, each with a capacity of 1,000 beds and the necessary medical equipment, along with other contributions from Qatar in the transport of Italian equipment and forces from Afghanistan.

The relations between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic have always been distinguished by their depth and strength, considering the close strategic cooperation between the two countries in various economic sectors, infrastructure projects, energy, and others. Over the past decades, the State of Qatar has built strong diplomatic relations with many countries around the globe, based on Doha's belief in its strategic location in the Arabian Gulf and the region and its pivotal role regionally and internationally. The Italian Republic is one of the most prominent European countries that builds strategic bridges and close ties with Qatar in various fields. As an extension of these strategic bridges, His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani starts on Sunday a state visit to the Italian Republic, during which His Highness will meet with the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella and the Prime Minister of the Italian Republic Giorgia Meloni, and discuss prospects for developing bilateral relations and ways to enhance them, within the framework of distinguished partnership and fruitful cooperation in the fields of energy, economy, education, health and culture. The visit is expected to contribute to developing cooperation relations between the two friendly countries, moving them towards broader and more advanced horizons. The visit is also expected to contribute to establishing an advanced stage of economic cooperation, such as increasing the volume of trade and exhange as well as important vital sectors between the two countries, which share mutual interests in various fields, and at various levels, including political, economic and military; interests that are based primarily on mutual respect and trust. The Qatari-Italian relations have witnessed continuous mutual visits at the highest levels, with the aim of strengthening and developing these relations. One of the most prominent visits of which areHis Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani's state visit to Italy in November 2018 and his official visit in January 2016. Another prominent visit is HE President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella's state visit to Doha in January 2020. The Qatari-Italian relations were established in 1992, when the two countries agreed to exchange the opening of their embassies. Since then, the two countries have witnessed rapid and solid development in all fields, especially in the economic and trade sectors. At a turning point in the close diplomatic relations between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Qatari-Italian diplomatic relations, the first round of strategic dialogue between the two countries was held in Rome in February 2022, co-chaired by HE Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani and the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic Luigi Di Maio. The Qatari-Italian meetings continued with the visit ofHis Highness the Amir to Rome in February 2023, during which His Highness held official talks with the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella, that pertained strong bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to support and develop them in various fields. In September 2023, the Prime Minister of the Italian Republic Giorgia Meloni visited Doha and met withHis Highness the Amir, during which His Highness held an official talks session with Meloni that pertained bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them in various fields, especially in the economic, investment, energy and defense fields. During the session, His Highness the Amir affirmed the State of Qatar's keenness to advance the distinguished relations between the two countries to broader horizons, and develop bilateral cooperation in various fields in a way that benefits the two countries and the two friendly peoples. For her part, the Italian Prime Minister expressed her aspiration to consolidate the growing relations between the two countries, and renewed her country's thanks to the State of Qatar for its medical assistance during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and its efforts to facilitate the evacuation of Italian citizens from Afghanistan. HE Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs considered the strategic dialogue an opportunity to discuss bilateral relations between the two countries, especially in matters related to defense, security and economy. He also affirmed that the inter-trade has increased more than three-fold over the past ten years, noting that trade exchange grew by 56 percent during the first ten months of 2022, in addition to the growing interest of Italian companies in the Qatari market. In a related context, the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs extended thanks to the State of Qatar for evacuating over a thousand Italian citizens during the events of 2021 in Kabul, expressing his gratitude for Qatar for agreeing to move the Italian Embassy from Afghanistan to Doha. The Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs also announced the appointment of an Italian cultural attache in Doha. This was followed by rounds of dialogue, activities and exchange of visits. On May 16, 2024, Qatar Chamber (QC) hosted the "Qatar-Italy Roundtable Business Meeting," which was organized by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry at the QC headquarters with the attendance of the Deputy Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy Valentino Valentini and HE Chairman of QC Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al-Thani. During the meeting, Valentini invited Qatari businesspersons to invest in Italy, commending the significant development Qatar is witnessing while indicating that Doha has become a hub for business and investment. He also noted that the Italian delegation comprised numerous leading Italian firms in various sectors and investment-related entities to discuss ways to establish trade and economic cooperation relations between the two countries, explaining that his country has carried out many legislative reforms to facilitate the business environment, as part of its efforts to become a business hub. For his part, HE Chairman of QC Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al-Thani said that Italy is considered an important and promising trade and economic partner for the State of Qatar. He highlighted the robust and rapidly growing relations between Qatar and Italy, pointing out that their bilateral trade witnessed a remarkable growth of 80 percent in 2023, reaching QAR 20 billion, compared to QAR 11.1 billion in 2018. Qatar's investment in the Adriatic Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminal off the Italian coastal city of Rovigo, which opened in October 2009, is one of the most important outcomes of the distinguished relations between the two countries. The LNG terminal receives Qatari liquefied gas at a rate of 8 billion cubic meters annually, which is equivalent to 10 percent of Italy's needs. The Qatari-Italian relations are linked by a set of agreements and memoranda of understanding covering cooperation in the economic, political, diplomatic, defense, investment, scientific, educational, health and cultural sectors, as well as many others. The two countries also established a joint Qatari-Italian businesspersons council to enhance economic relations and explore areas of bilateral cooperation. The Italian Republic is the State of Qatar's eighth largest trading partner, its seventh supplier, and one of the most important destinations for Qatari investments that have entered into various sectors and economic activities there. Qatari investments in Italy are concentraded in the real estate and hotel sector, as well as the developement of some residential areas, in addition to investments by Qatar Airways. Italy has an area of 300,000 square kilometers and a population of more than 60 million. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy was the seventh largest economy in the world and the fourth largest economy in Europe in 2008. It is a member of the Group of Eight, the European Union, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years, QNB said in an economic commentary.After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen.Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability. These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction, QNB noted.During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic.While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place in 2024.In QNB’s view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025. In this article, QNB analyses three key elements that support our expectations of a sustained recovery.First, key leading indicators point to an improvement in trade volumes. Investor expectations regarding future earnings of companies in the transportation sector are a revealing signal of prospects for global commerce.The Dow Jones Transportation Average is an equity index that is comprised of airlines, trucking, marine transportation, railroad and delivery companies, whose performance tends to lead the dynamics of global exports. After reaching a low in mid-2024 in year-over-year terms, the gauge has returned to the positive range that points to an expansion in trade.It is also valuable to track the export performance of highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, which report trade statistics in a timely fashion.After displaying negative growth during most of last year, in line with the contraction in world trade, this measure began a rising trend that continues in the expansionary range. Overall, leading indicators suggest that trade is set to sustain its recovery.Second, the Chinese government has announced a battery of aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, contributing to an improvement in the outlook for international trade in the medium term.During the course of this year, concerns regarding the performance of the Chinese economy started to mount amid deflationary pressures, the real estate crisis, and negative momentum in investor sentiment. Economic growth expectations for 2024 fluctuated between 4.5% and 4.9%, significantly below the 10-year average of 5.6%.In a strong response, Chinese authorities set forth a series of coordinated monetary, financial, and fiscal measures to provide support to the world’s second largest economy.QNB expects the comprehensive package of policy measures to bolster economic growth in China and East Asia, creating further momentum in the most dynamic trading region of the planet. This should further support an acceleration of overall trade growth.Third, the policy interest rate cutting cycles by major central banks will give trade an additional boost. Given the progress in bringing inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are embarking on a significant process of monetary easing.This cycle, QNB noted, is expected to take policy rates from restrictive territory towards accommodative levels by end-2025. International trade is highly sensitive to credit and interest rates, given their influence on investment by firms and on the demand of durable goods by households, which are major components of trade flows. Thus, the monetary easing cycle in advanced economies will add momentum to global trade growth.“All in all, absent a major escalation in protectionism and geopolitical disruptions, we expect growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2% in 2025, from an expected 2.8% this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies,” QNB added.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expected that growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2 percent in 2025, from an expected 2.8 percent this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies.In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years. After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen. Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability. These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction. During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic."While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place in 2024. In our view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025.The bank said that there are three key elements that support its expectations of a sustained recovery."First, key leading indicators point to an improvement in trade volumes. Investor expectations regarding future earnings of companies in the transportation sector are a revealing signal of prospects for global commerce. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is an equity index that is comprised of airlines, trucking, marine transportation, railroad and delivery companies, whose performance tends to lead the dynamics of global exports. After reaching a low in mid-2024 in year-over-year terms, the gauge has returned to the positive range that points to an expansion in trade."It is also valuable to track the export performance of highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, which report trade statistics in a timely fashion. After displaying negative growth during most of last year, in line with the contraction in world trade, this measure began a rising trend that continues in the expansionary range. Overall, leading indicators suggest that trade is set to sustain its recovery."Second, the Chinese government has announced a battery of aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, contributing to an improvement in the outlook for international trade in the medium term. During the course of this year, concerns regarding the performance of the Chinese economy started to mount amid deflationary pressures, the real estate crisis, and negative momentum in investor sentiment. Economic growth expectations for 2024 fluctuated between 4.5 percent and 4.9 percent, significantly below the 10-year average of 5.6 percent. In a strong response, Chinese authorities set forth a series of coordinated monetary, financial, and fiscal measures to provide support to the worlds second largest economy. We expect the comprehensive package of policy measures to bolster economic growth in China and East Asia, creating further momentum in the most dynamic trading region of the planet. This should further support an acceleration of overall trade growth."Third, the policy interest rate cutting cycles by major central banks will give trade an additional boost. Given the progress in bringing inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are embarking on a significant process of monetary easing. This cycle is expected to take policy rates from restrictive territory towards accommodative levels by end-2025. International trade is highly sensitive to credit and interest rates, given their influence on investment by firms and on the demand of durable goods by households, which are major components of trade flows. Thus, the monetary easing cycle in advanced economies will add momentum to global trade growth.QNB concluded, "All in all, absent a major escalation in protectionism and geopolitical disruptions, we expect growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2 percent in 2025, from an expected 2.8 percent this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies."

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalise growth.Authorities have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September, but markets are waiting for more details on the size of the package and a clearer road map to put the economy back on a solid longer-term footing.The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6% in July-September, official data showed, a touch above a 4.5% forecast in a Reuters poll but below the 4.7% pace in the second quarter. “China’s Q3 2024 data is not a turn-up for the books,” said Bruce Pang, Chief Economist at JLL. “The performance aligns with market expectations, given the weak domestic demand, a still struggling housing market, and slowing export growth.” “The stimulus package announced at the end of September will take time and patience to boost growth over the next several quarters,” he added.Officials addressing a post-data press conference on Friday expressed confidence the economy can achieve the government’s full year growth target of around 5%, underpinned by further policy support and another cut to the amount banks must hold in reserve. “Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilisation and recovery trend that occurred in September.We are fully confident in achieving the full-year target,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, told reporters. Policymakers could take some comfort in forecast-topping industrial output and retail sales data for September, but the property sector continued to show sharp weakness and underline markets’ calls for more support steps. “We would downplay the importance of better-than-expected key economic indicators in September given that the structural weakness in the property and household sectors remains largely unaddressed,” said Betty Wang, an economist at Oxford Economics. “The recently announced stimulus measures could cushion the downside risks to next year’s growth, but are unlikely to reverse the structural downturn.”A Reuters poll showed China’s economy is likely to expand 4.8% in 2024, undershooting Beijing’s target, and growth could cool further to 4.5% in 2025. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.9% in the third quarter, compared with a revised 0.5% growth in April-June, and below forecast of 1.0%.With 70% of Chinese household wealth held in real estate, a sector that at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy, consumers have kept their wallets shut tight. The frail consumption has taken a toll on many businesses, with major Franco-Italian eyewear maker EssilorLuxottica just one of many in the firing line.The makers of Rayban and Oakley brands reported it had missed third quarter revenue expectations dragged by weak consumer demand in China.Worryingly, there were few signs of a property market revival despite several rounds of policy support measures over the past year, with separate data on Friday showing China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace since May 2015.China’s crude steel output in September also slid for a fourth month, missing expectations of a rebound in purchases of the construction commodity. Moreover, cracks have started to appear in the key export sector, a lone bright spot in the economy, with shipment growth slowing sharply last month.Markets were choppy following yesterday’s burst of data, but then rallied sharply with the blue-chip CSI300 Index up 2.5% and the Shanghai Composite rising 2.0% after the central bank announced two funding schemes to support the equity market.China has been grappling with deflationary pressures since early last year, and some economists see those strains deepening. “The GDP data confirmed that China faces excess supply and lack of demand. China is seen falling into fully-fledged deflation,” said Toru Nishihama, Chief Economist, Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Policymakers, who have traditionally leaned on infrastructure and manufacturing investment to drive growth, have pledged to shift focus towards stimulating consumption. The central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the Covid-19 pandemic to support the property and stock markets.However, the numerous steps have still left investors waiting on details of the overall size of the stimulus package and a clear plan to reignite broader growth. China observers have also repeatedly highlighted the need for authorities to address longer-term structural challenges such as overcapacity, high debt levels and an ageing population.

The argument for a free press has always been strong. When journalists can work unimpeded, they fulfil essential democratic functions: holding those in power to account, scrutinising government performance, and highlighting underreported stories and perspectives.But press freedom is under threat like never before, and journalists around the world face increasingly complex and rapidly changing pressures that often are as much economic and technological as political. Democratic governments must therefore be steadfast in defending and promoting a free press at home and abroad. Two new reports make a compelling case for these efforts.The first, published by the Media Freedom Coalition, a partnership of 51 countries spanning six continents, demonstrates the broader societal benefits of a free press. For example, media freedom is necessary for a properly functioning democracy and economy. This may seem obvious, because markets depend on a steady stream of reliable information about companies and their financial performance. But the evidence is even more robust: one study cited in the coalition’s report found that companies in the media spotlight are less likely to window-dress their financial statements. Another shows that journalists are effective – sometimes more so than financial regulators – at spotting corporate fraud.Another key area where independent media have demonstrated their enormous value is health. During the Covid-19 pandemic, high-quality news outlets played an indispensable role in disseminating accurate information and debunking misinformation about the virus. Moreover, media coverage can help give health issues that carry social stigma the attention they need to be placed on the public-policy agenda. For example, one study found that developing countries with a freer press were more likely to have government leaders who were committed to curbing HIV/Aids.Investigative journalists have long exposed environmental crimes as well, and continue to break major stories on climate change and related issues, such as air pollution and illegal fishing. The Media Freedom Coalition’s report also highlights evidence showing that press freedom is positively correlated with more rapid adoption of renewable energy.Media freedom is also a crucial element of security, as shown by a report published by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in July. It illustrates, for example, the importance of an independent press both in exposing spurious claims that could mislead people into supporting a conflict, and in ensuring the peaceful resolution of disputes.Of course, a free press is valuable in and of itself, given that freedom of expression is a fundamental human right that arguably underpins all others. After all, how can governments uphold human rights when there is no one to investigate and expose violations? But the evidence presented by the Media Freedom Coalition (which Estonia co-chairs) and the OSCE can help policymakers and campaigners make an undeniable case for media freedom being essential to healthy and prosperous societies.The Media Freedom Coalition is doing just that. The co-chairs, Estonia and Germany, along with colleagues in government, civil society, media, and the legal sector, and with multilateral organisations such as Unesco, work to develop interventions that support journalists at risk and promote policies that protect their right to report, as well as to build norms around emerging challenges such as transnational repression.Diplomacy plays a vital role. As Estonia’s ambassador at Large for Human Rights and Migration, I have seen how embassies are a valuable tool through which governments can promote media freedom. Diplomats are well-placed to advocate for a free press, both publicly and privately, and support host governments as they implement related reforms.But effective diplomacy must be backed up with concrete action. This can take many forms, such as ramping up funding to support independent media, reforming domestic legislation to bolster press freedom, or providing emergency visas and safe refuge to reporters at risk – something that Estonia, which is ranked sixth on the latest World Press Freedom Index, is proud to do.Repression of press freedom undermines human rights and prevents societies from reaching their full potential. But the case for protecting media freedom has never been stronger. It is now up to us – democratic states, including the members of the Media Freedom Coalition – to make this case more loudly than ever. – Project SyndicateKatrin Kivi is Estonia’s ambassador at Large for Human Rights and Migration. Estonia is Co-Chair of the Media Freedom Coalition.

Pledges amounting to approximately $36mn were gathered to fund the World Health Organisation (WHO) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region at the investment round held in Doha on Thursday.Qatar's Minister of Public Health HE Dr Hanan Mohamed al-Kuwari participated in the meeting at the Museum of Islamic Art in Doha, a statement from the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) said.The event was attended by several ministers and senior officials from countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region, as well as representatives from international, regional, and national organisations.In her address during the investment round, HE Dr al-Kuwari said that Qatar firmly believes that investing in global health is an investment in global stability, security, and prosperity."Qatar was among the first countries in the world to respond to the WHO's plea for a core voluntary contribution in 2021 to support the response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and other emergencies.”“Recognising the urgent need for ongoing, reliable, and long-term support for the WHO's budget, we reaffirmed our commitment to the WHO in May 2024,” she said."We stand ready to continue discussions with the WHO to determine our contribution to the financial resources needed to implement its 14th General Programme of Work,” HE Dr al-Kuwari added. “We are confident that this will strengthen health systems globally, making them more resilient and capable of addressing challenges such as pandemics and non-communicable diseases."The minister said that the investment round for the WHO underscores the shared commitment to ensuring the future of global health, stating that "In the face of a rapidly evolving health landscape, securing sustainable and stable funding for the 14th General Programme of Work is not just necessary; it is a moral obligation we owe to future generations”.She reiterated the importance of strengthening co-operation to ensure that the WHO remains prepared to lead global health efforts in the years ahead, adding: "Together, we can create a healthier and more equitable world for all."In her opening remarks, Dr Hanan Balkhy, the WHO regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, said: "As the global investment case demonstrates, every dollar invested in the WHO generates a return of $35.”“This is an extremely smart investment,” she continued. “It can help save the lives of another 40mn people, making the lives of billions healthier and safer from harm, while providing them access to the health services they need.”"Predictable, flexible funding for our core work over the next four years is essential for us to achieve the best possible health outcomes," Dr Balkhy added.Several ministers and senior officials from the Eastern Mediterranean Region also spoke on the importance of sustainable funding for the WHO to ensure greater preparedness and response to health challenges in the region.In a pre-recorded speech, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus highlighted the significance of the investment round and the solidarity required for sustainable funding for the WHO, emphasising its importance for global health in achieving "All for Health, Health for All”.The event also featured a video presentation on sustainable funding for the WHO in the region and its importance in addressing health challenges.The 71st session of the WHO Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean, held under the theme *Health Beyond Borders: Action, Access, Equity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, will conclude today in Doha.

In August, 14 of Africa’s poorest countries, alongside international organisations and private companies, pledged over $45mn to the World Health Organisation (WHO)’s new Investment Round, which aims to raise $7.1bn in voluntary contributions to close its current funding gap for the next four years, improve primary care, and build a more robust, better-trained health workforce.Amid climate disruptions, pandemics, and rapid population ageing, the WHO estimates that its fundraising effort could save an additional 40mn lives over the next four years. The African Development Bank has committed $10mn, while countries like Ethiopia and Niger have each pledged $2mn.Earlier this month, countries and partner organisations from the WHO South-East Asia Region – including India, Indonesia, North Korea, and Sri Lanka – pledged $345mn.This raises an important question: if low-income countries like Chad and lower-middle-income countries like Côte d’Ivoire can contribute their fair share, will their wealthier counterparts step up?The WHO, which provides critical aid to roughly 166mn people in conflict zones such as Ukraine, Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, urgently requires more consistent and predictable funding.Otherwise, its ability to respond to health crises caused by wars, disease outbreaks, famines, droughts, and floods will be severely constrained, denying millions of people the emergency medical assistance they need.The WHO must also sustain its ongoing efforts in impoverished countries, where billions of people lack regular access to healthcare. In response to these evolving needs, the new Investment Round calls for just 0.1% of the $9tn spent annually on healthcare.When the WHO was founded after World War II, member states provided flexible funding that allowed for long-term planning. But nowadays, the organisation can be certain about only 20% of its budget and relies on voluntary, often earmarked, contributions for the rest, limiting its effectiveness. Even with institutional reforms underway, the current Investment Round is vital for securing the flexible funding required to implement the organisation’s strategy over the next four years.If Covid-19 has taught us anything, it is that health emergencies know no borders and that another pandemic is not a question of if, but when. Alarmingly, as global health threats grow more frequent and severe, the number of unvaccinated children is rising for the first time in modern history, exposing them to deadly diseases again. Moreover, communicable diseases have re-emerged as a leading cause of premature deaths.The climate crisis, too, is undeniably an escalating health crisis, with millions more people projected to die from malnutrition, cancer, malaria, air pollution, and extreme weather events. Meanwhile, the silent pandemic of antimicrobial resistance, which contributes to 5mn deaths annually, threatens to reverse a century of medical progress.Against this backdrop, the world is grappling with a profound mental health crisis. As our understanding of mental health disorders has deepened, it is now recognised that they are far more prevalent than previously thought. Notably, more than 700,000 people worldwide die by suicide each year.While health is enshrined as a human right in the constitutions of 140 countries, more than 4bn people lack access to basic care, leaving them so vulnerable that they cannot afford to get sick. Investing in healthcare is thus the best insurance policy to have. The results speak for themselves: every dollar invested in the WHO generates a remarkable $35 return in improved health outcomes. But the organisation’s 194 member states currently contribute just $0.30 per person annually to keep it afloat.Closing the funding gap is crucial for enabling the WHO to respond to the next pandemic swiftly and effectively. Of the $7.1bn it aims to raise, $1.6bn will be used for expanding healthcare in low- and middle-income countries – equivalent to just $0.13 per year from each of the 3bn people in the global middle class.With adequate funding over the next four years, the WHO can address gender-based health disparities, which account for 75mn years of life lost each year, by tackling issues such as post-partum haemorrhage, the leading cause of maternal deaths. These funds will also accelerate the implementation of the global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer. And they will help finance the organisation’s Special Initiative for Mental Health, increasing support for the 1bn people living with mental health conditions.Altogether, fully funding the WHO’s programme of work for the next four years could prevent 40mn deaths by 2028, including 7.5mn deaths from climate-related causes, 6.5mn from noncommunicable diseases, and 5mn from infectious diseases.Moreover, it could improve health outcomes for 6bn people and provide access to healthcare for 5bn individuals facing financial hardship as a result of out-of-pocket expenses.The past few decades have shown what international co-operation, spearheaded by the WHO, can achieve. Co-ordinated global efforts have successfully eradicated smallpox, advanced the fight against tuberculosis, and reduced HIV deaths by 70% within 20 years. Over the past five years alone, it is estimated that 25 countries have eliminated at least one tropical disease, allowing the WHO to expand its efforts to eliminate 30 communicable diseases.Just imagine what can be accomplished in the next four years. A fully funded WHO could protect the world from health emergencies, reduce gender-based disparities, eliminate many more diseases, bridge the mental-health treatment gap, combat antimicrobial resistance, and ensure that displaced people worldwide have access to essential medical services.Achieving these goals depends on closing the current funding gap. In the face of what Martin Luther King, Jr, famously called the “fierce urgency of now,” the world cannot afford to wait. - Project Syndicate• Gordon Brown, a former prime minister of the United Kingdom, is UN Special Envoy for Global Education and Chair of Education Cannot Wait.

Whenever the odds seem stacked against human progress – when economic growth looks set to remain feeble, when too many countries appear destined to grow old before they become rich, when climate change seems out of control – it is worth remembering the distinctive virtue of our species. Human ingenuity is the reason why predictions of global doom, which have proliferated throughout our history, have never materialised.It was ingenuity that defused the so-called “population bomb”, the 1970s threat that “hundreds of millions of people” would starve to death as rapid population growth exhausted finite supplies of food. Instead, agricultural innovations such as high-yield, pest-resistant crops caused global food production to grow faster than the population in nearly every part of the world. Equally, it was human ingenuity that brought deadly diseases – from HIV/Aids to Covid-19 – under control. If climate change is tamed by the middle of this century, you can bet that human ingenuity will have been the main factor.But progress is seldom the fruit of a “eureka” moment. Instead, human ingenuity delivers when governments, private enterprises, and individuals act in ways that benefit entire societies consistently over time. Such outcomes depend on conducive conditions, cultivated by the appropriate mixture of rules and practices. Recognising that sustained economic development usually reflects system-wide business success, we at the World Bank Group describe these conditions as “the business climate” or “the business-enabling environment.”For too long, though, we focused more on what governments can do for the good of business than on what governments and businesses can do together for the good of all. Thus, in a crucial first step to correct the imbalance, our new Business Ready report aims to build a comprehensive dashboard that, by 2026, will allow anyone to dial in the precise settings needed for vibrant private-sector development across 180 economies. Using this tool, policymakers can start to create the conditions to reduce poverty, advance shared prosperity, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.The goal is to encourage healthy competition among businesses and countries, and to discourage “a race to the bottom” (one of the unintended consequences of Doing Business, our previous effort to help countries establish the right conditions for private-sector development). Our new analytical framework recognises that there is more to a healthy business environment than the “ease of doing business”. It accounts for the possibility that reducing the “cost of doing business” can unintentionally raise the costs for society at large.Accordingly, Business Ready assesses not just the regulatory burden on enterprises – how long it takes to start a business, for example – but also the quality of regulations. Do labour laws protect workers from being arbitrarily fired? Do they inadvertently make women workers less competitive than men and discourage them from seeking work?Beyond assessing the rules and regulations that govern business, Business Ready examines the public services needed to transform intentions into reality. Do public utilities provide reliable water and electricity? Do governments make it easy for businesses to fulfil their tax obligations and comply with environmental and social safeguards?The result is a breathtakingly detailed dataset that encompasses nearly 2,000 data points per economy. One can now zero in, for example, on the frequency of power outages suffered by firms, how long it takes to file and pay taxes, or the average cost to settle a commercial dispute. Since comparable data of this quality are unavailable anywhere else, Business Ready is an essential public good. The trove of insights it offers will enable businesses to make better decisions about where and how they operate, spur governments to adopt better policies by learning from one another, and help researchers everywhere to join the effort to get global private-sector development right.While this year’s edition covers just 50 economies, next year’s will include 100, and our coverage in 2026 will expand to about 180. With each iteration, we will refine the report’s design and methods to reflect lessons learned. Why not wait for the methods to be perfected before publishing the data? Simply put, the world lacks the luxury of time – development delayed is development denied – and getting feedback from the intended beneficiaries of an assessment is a big part of getting the assessment right. In any case, in a dynamic global economy, accuracy will always be a moving target.The data and methods used are more rigorous and more transparent than used in Doing Business. They consolidate the judgments of more than 2,500 business-climate experts, as well as the survey responses of more than 29,000 businesses. They are more exhaustive than anything that has been attempted so far by an international institution, and they are of immediate value to the 50 economies covered. Moreover, all data collected for this report are now publicly available – and verifiable – on our website.Analysis of this year’s data leads to two general observations. First, there is a sizeable implementation gap. Countries tend to be better at enacting regulations to improve the national business climate than at providing the public services needed to ensure actual progress. Fortunately, the gap shrinks when the quality of regulations improves.Second, while richer economies tend to be more business-ready, a country need not be wealthy to create a good business environment. Among the 50 economies assessed this year, several developing economies rank among the top ten in several categories: Rwanda for public services and operational efficiency; Colombia for its regulatory framework and public services; and Georgia for its regulatory framework and operational efficiency.This suggests that progress is possible for most countries, and that governments should step up their efforts to become business ready. But they should do so not merely to win national bragging rights or to chase the uncertain promise of a big surge in foreign investment. The rewards are far more encompassing. When correctly chosen and carefully sequenced, business reforms can simultaneously accelerate economic growth, boost productivity, and help reduce carbon emissions. Establishing a “Goldilocks” business climate will create the conditions for human ingenuity to flourish, and that is exactly what the world needs at a time of slowing growth, rising debt, and accelerating climate change. – Project Syndicate[This commentary has been adapted from the World Bank’s October 2024 Business Ready report.]Indermit Gill is Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President for Development Economics at the World Bank.

To tackle future pandemics on the scale of Covid-19, the world needs to adopt a multifaceted approach that involves international co-operation, stronger healthcare infrastructure, and proactive measures.Countries around the world need resilient healthcare systems capable of handling surges. This includes sufficient medical supplies, well-trained staff, and the ability to ramp up intensive care facilities.Investing in global early-warning systems, especially in areas with high potential for zoonotic diseases, will help identify outbreaks at their source. Rapid reporting mechanisms and surveillance tools need to be upgraded globally.Since many pandemics originate from animal populations, integrating human, animal, and environmental health into policy frameworks is crucial to minimise zoonotic disease outbreaks.A centralised body with adequate resources and authority should be empowered with more authority to lead, co-ordinate, and enforce health responses globally. Nations must commit to better transparency and information sharing.Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group (WBG), and World Health Organisation (WHO) have agreed on broad principles for co-operation on pandemic preparedness.This co-operation, signed recently, will allow a scaling up of support to countries to prevent, detect and respond to public health threats through the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), the WBG’s financial and technical support, and WHO’s technical expertise and in-country capabilities.The RST allows eligible member countries to access long-term financing at low interest rates to help implement reforms that address structural challenges to the stability of the economy, such as those posed by pandemics, and to enhance countries’ health systems resilience.Operating within their respective mandates and policies, the IMF, the WBG, and WHO will leverage their expertise to enhance pandemic preparedness in their member countries, building on the synergies and complementarity of each institution’s in-country analysis and operations.This collaboration will strengthen the design and articulation of effective policy, institutional and public financial management reforms supported by the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), the policy reforms and investments supported by the WBG, and the technical and operational support provided by WHO. In strengthening the pandemic preparedness framework, member countries will also work to improve the resilience of their health systems and their ability to respond better to all health emergencies.Undoubtedly, more funding and co-operation are required to develop vaccines swiftly. Establishing global platforms for sharing research, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines is key to faster response times.Governments and health organisations also need to improve the way they communicate with the public, counter misinformation, and foster trust. Transparency in decision-making processes is essential to ensure compliance with public health measures.The world’s reliance on limited supply chains for critical items like personal protective equipment (PPE) and vaccines was exposed during Covid-19. Countries need to diversify supply chains and create stockpiles for essential medical goods.Every country should have detailed pandemic preparedness plans that include emergency funding, logistics for lockdowns or quarantines, and rapid mobilisation of resources.Low- and middle-income countries need better access to vaccines, treatments, and healthcare resources. International organisations and wealthier nations should support equitable distribution, ensuring no region is left behind.