Obama has enough votes in Senate to save Iran deal

The deal now has 34 backers in the Senate—the number needed to uphold a certain Obama veto should Congress pass a resolution against itAFPWashingtonUS President Barack Obama yesterday earned sufficient congressional backing to ensure the Iran nuclear deal does not get blocked, when a 34th senator announced her support for the accord. Most US lawmakers are opposed to the deal, which would ease punishing economic sanctions on Tehran while preventing it from advancing its nuclear programme. Many Republicans warn that Iran will seek to cheat its way to an atomic bomb. But with Senate Democrat Barbara Mikulski announcing her support yesterday, the deal now has 34 backers in the Senate—the number needed to uphold a certain Obama veto should Congress pass a resolution that disapproves of the deal. Overcoming the veto would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate and House of Representatives. While the deal is not perfect, Mikulski said, “I have concluded that this is the best option available to block Iran from having a nuclear bomb.” Some Republicans have urged walking away from the deal and renegotiating tougher terms with Tehran, but US negotiators have warned that such a move could see the fragile international coalition that secured the agreement fall apart. “It’s unclear if the European Union, Russia, China, India and others would continue sanctions if Congress rejects this deal,” said Mikulski, the longest-serving female senator in history. “At best, sanctions would be porous, or limited to unilateral sanctions by the US.” Republicans are unified in their opposition, warning that easing sanctions will provide Iran with a windfall of up to $150bn, which they say could be funnelled toward terrorist operations. “Iran deal done. With Mikulski, Obama has all the votes he needs,” number two Senate Republican John Cornyn posted on Twitter.  Secretary of State John Kerry, delivering a major speech in Philadelphia on the Iran deal, said Iran will be required to live up to the agreement in full before it starts to benefit from sanctions relief. “Without this agreement, Iran’s so-called breakout time (to produce enough fuel for a nuclear weapon) was about two months. With this agreement it will increase by a factor of six, to at least a year, and will remain at that level for a decade or more,” Kerry said. He also reiterated arguments he has been making in the two months since the deal was signed, insisting it is not based on trusting Tehran but on its ability to police its activity. “The United States and the international community will be monitoring Iran non-stop and you can bet that, if we see something, we will do something,” he said. “The standard we will apply can be summed up in two words: ‘Zero tolerance.’” Kerry made no mention of reaching the 34-vote Senate threshold, seeking to avoid the image of a victory lap as he aims to broaden support for the deal. The White House is now eyeing another key threshold in the Senate. If it gains backing from seven of the remaining undecided Democrats to boost its numbers to 41, it could filibuster, meaning Republicans would not have the 60 votes needed to force a vote on the resolution of disapproval. That would save Obama the embarrassing step of cobbling together a minority coalition for a veto to preserve his landmark agreement, a process that would sow doubts among a sceptical American public and Washington’s international partners, which are keen to see strong US commitment to the accord. Two top Democratic senators—Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez—are opposed to the deal, as are a handful of House Democrats, including Steve Israel, the chamber’s highest-ranking Jewish member. Congress is set to vote later this month on the accord, which was reached in July between Tehran and six world powers: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. Among Democrats in support, many have expressed deep concern about Iran’s adherence to the deal, and stressed it is the lesser of several evils. “The alternative, to me, is a scenario of uncertainty and isolation,” Senator Chris Coons said on Tuesday as he announced his support. Republican presidential candidates have slammed the deal as a concession to an odious regime. “When I’m president, we won’t just reverse President Obama’s dangerous Iran deal. We will increase sanctions on Iran,” Senator Marco Rubio said.